http://australiasevereweather.com/
Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 10:23:38 +1000
From: Don White
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Winter (?) Rolls On
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I agree with Jimmy .... just have a feeling that the wetaher might not
bee that boring soon.... it's happened like this before.
Don W
Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> Andrew and Lindsay,
>
> Don't despair as the probability is that when it does come it will come
> in full force. I am actually quite excited that it is lagging as you may
> find that July may hit us hard. Well we shall see. And of course if I am
> proven wrong, then October late season is something to look forward to.
> Weather has its way of balancing itself but we find it when don't know
> which way.
>
> Don't get me wrong. I am also disappointed with lack of action too but I
> suppose over the years I have learned to pass the time so to speak. I
> also advise not to look too far into models or at least get overexcited
> over them when they look fantastic. This is why I like AVN as it only
> goes 3 days out.
>
> Anyway enough from me.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 11:27 AM 29/06/01 +1000, you wrote:
>
>> Hi all,
>>
>> Just thought I'd take the opportunity to express my disappointment that
>> we are a third of the way through winter and so far the SE has had no
>> more than a third of a cold-snap!
>>
>> Despite our speculations from a few weeks ago, the sub-tropical ridge
>> has gone back to being all over the place without us having had the
>> penetrating low (with a 'W'?) we'd hoped for.
>>
>> As Lindsay P. has mentioned, the daytime temperatures are unseasonably
>> warm up here on the tablelands which is disappointing for people like us
>> who enjoy the hardness of (normal) winters here.
>>
>> Andrew.
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>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 10:28:42 +1000
From: Don White
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To: Aussie Weather
Subject: aus-wx: Warm June
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sydney's ave max in June reached 20 degrees for only the 2nd time in 142
years ! Only 1957, with 20.3 degree av max beat it.
What about Perth and Brisabane - pretty close to records I would assume
but for the locals it will be cold and miserable in Briasbane later tonight.
Don W
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 11:04:04 +1000
From: Matthew Smith
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Subject: aus-wx: new email / test
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Hi everyone.
I have moved to Newcastle and have a new email addy.
tornado at bigpond.net.au
This is a test email to see if it subscribing to aus-wx has worked.
Some very nice congestus showers just off the coast here, nice hard
updraughts, glad the high that has dominated is breaking down a little!
Matthew Smith
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: Subject: Supercells, RFDs, overshooting tops, etc.
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 08:48:05 +1000
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Morning all,
Leslie Lemon has reappeared on the USA wx-chase list & I thought a
number of you might be interested in the discussion that follows......it
is long. I've included a couple of papers relevant to this discussion
at the bottom for further reading if anyone is interested.
..........................................................
All:
Here is installment 1.
I have been off this list for years but just recently returned. I did
so when the discussion has centered on concepts near and dear to my
heart and mind. As some of you may know I have written within the
formal (and more-so) informal literature about these concepts for many
years and have also written other comments outside the published
literature. Here, allow me to ramble some concerning supercells, their
structure, mesocyclones and their structure (NOT a rotating updraft),
the RFD, overshoots, etc. This is a very looooong post and you may not
want to read it! I very well understand! LOL These are just one man's
opinions and concepts. There have also been excellent comments by Sam
Barricklow, Lon Curtis, and others. I don't mean to diminish any of the
previously posted comments by these and others here.
The overshooting dome is the upper reaches of the updraft (and one
branch of the mesocyclone) where it has risen beyond the equilibrium
level (where updraft temperature and environmental temperature are
identical). As the updraft continues to rise due to existing upward
momentum it cools adiabatically. Thus, when seen on satellite these
overshooting tops are often much colder than the environment. There
will be a point when the upward momentum (kinetic energy acquired from
realized CAPE) has been completely depleted. At that point parcels are
forced outward by rising parcels from beneath and sink as they diverge.
With decreasing updraft strength the degree of overshoot declines.
Also, if the updraft width diminishes it mixes more with environmental
air and CAPE is lost, being replaced by evaporativly cooled air from the
environment. This will also lead directly to a decline in updraft
strength. In the fine comments by Sam Barricklow he explained how
mesocyclone occlusion leads to updraft decline.
Lemon and Doswell, 1979 (L&D '79) discussed this. (If a mesocyclone
were a 'rotating updraft' then the "vortex valve" concept I wrote about
in the mid '70s would be important to updraft demise as the updraft spin
increased). Note also that with amplification of low level rotation
"vortex breakdown" also occurs. This is the production of a central
downdraft along or near the axis of rotation and is often called an
"occlusion" downdraft. This should not be mistaken for the RFD. They
differ but can blend together.
Here is my second installment.
On the subject of "What is a supercell?" (If this is too old and beyond
the list, please excuse it and simply delete). It might be helpful to
step back a moment and look at where we have come from.
I wrote two tech memo years ago ('78 and 80') in order to give radar
operators/forecasters the reflectivity (Z) characteristics of a
distinctly different class of storms that when found within a moderate
to strongly sheared environment, were typically indicative of severe
storms. L&D '79 added even more to the 'typical' life cycle of these
storms and the repeatable pattern of sever phenomena. The purpose was
clear. When storms exhibit these features (symptoms) then the
forecaster could and can anticipate to an extent, the life cycle,
severity, locations of severe phenomena, and how to warn on these
(ailments) storms. I used the commonly accepted classification of the
time, which was based on Browning's (and many others) three-dimensional
Z structure. These structural characteristics were shown by Browning to
transcend international and geopolitical boundaries of all kinds within
the mid-latitudes of the globe. Further, they were shown (within
certain variability's) to be independent of the weather radar employed
and to essentially be indicative of a storm with a persistent and
abnormally intense updraft. Browning noted and emphasized
this 'trinity' of three closely related radar characteristics. They
were the "sloping echo overhang" beneath which was found the (later
named) Weak Echo Region (WER), the "vault" (later named) the Bounded
Weak Echo Region (BWER), and the "wall"/hook echo. (Within the two tech
memos I also emphasized the position of the echo top and not its height
as well as certain Z values as distinguishing characteristics.) Browning
named this storm class "Severe Right" or severe and (to a greater
extent) right moving. (A bit of trivia for those who are curious about
the first use of the term "supercell". The study was published in 1962
in the "Meteorological Magazine", titled "Cellular Structure of
Convective Storms". On page 349 of that article was the first time the
term "supercell" was used).
Even with the advent of the Doppler weather radar these Z features are
still commonly used as severe thunderstorm warning criteria. These Z
features are still used because very often they precede the development
of the first radar detectable mid-level mesocyclone. As some of you
know, it was for this reason that I resisted the supercell
classification scheme that replaced these radar Z characteristics with
the mesocyclone as the distinguishing feature of the supercell. Perhaps
this is best, however, because as stated in the tech memos, the WER is
often found with severe multicellular storms as well but is more
temporal and episodic (as is the severe weather produced) with these
storms. Also included was the fact that the storm flank where these
features are found is variable but independent of storm classification.
This was especially illustrated in the appendices of the tech memos.
Interestingly and as anticipated these same features are used in the
southern hemisphere but simply "flipped over". Those storms are also
typically *left* deviating severe storms. See:
http://www.weathersa.co.za/wfr/fcastaids/radar/lemon.htm
Forecasters, I believe, are still taught to watch for this storm type
and Z structure for some of the above reasons but also because these
storms can produce giant hail (> 2 inches), especially violent surface
winds, and tornadoes in a disproportionate manner. Obviously they are
now taught the even greater variability in tornadic storms and in
mesocyclonic storms. Velocity data interpretation is emphasized, as are
mesocyclone, tornadocyclone, and TVS identification. But obviously
there are also a whole host of other meteorological features and
characteristics identified using velocity data.
All this is given to help illustrate what is taught and why as well as
the other distinguishing features of most supercells. But I do not
dispute the dynamics of these storms and the dynamic differences as
emphasized by Chuck Doswell and others.
Part 3
All:
Relative to the RFD, I very much believe that we are talking about deep
decent on the backside of, at least in some, if not most, supercells.
For starters, L&D, '79 hypothesized a deep RFD origin for several
reasons. In fact, I recall when I gave the shortened version in '78 (I
believe) at an SLS or radar conference, several folks responded
favorably. One of those alluded to the WV dark-spot appearing right up
to the backside of some supercell CBs.
What is the mesocyclone? Is it a "rotating updraft"? Lon Curtis made
reference to a little of this and it may have been discussed extensively
here prior to my renewed subscription. But I contend that the
mesocyclone is an analog to the extra-tropical cyclone (ETC) on the
polar front having three distinct branches. That is one branch is the
updraft rising from air obtained from the warm sector and another branch
of mid- to upper-level potentially cold air descending in a rainy
downdraft. And the third branch, descending in the "clear slot" is
extremely important. Much of this concept is contained in my paper "On
the mesocyclone 'dry intrusion' and tornadogenesis" from the 19th SLS
conference in Minneapolis (1998). This is the paper where I point out
that if you chose to look at the mesocyclone through the ETC "conveyer
belt" analog, it all fits together very nicely. Too nicely? Only time
will tell. The RFD has the same form and affect that the 'dry
intrusion' on the synoptic scale does. That is, on the synoptic scale,
as the dry intrusion (often seen as a WV dark-spot) descends and begins
to wrap around the 'cloud head' (comma head as seen on in satellite
photos) and overtakes the baroclinc zone, rapid deepening and
cyclogenesis occurs. The cloud head itself is made up of parcels from
all three airstreams just as the supercell CB is. Obviously, the
disclaimer about the differences of non-hydrostatics, the
three-dimensionality, etc., of the mesocyclone still applies. In L&D we
pointed out the radar reflectivity "weak echo hole" at 9 km altitude in
one tornadic storm where it appears that the RFD scavenged and
evaporated precip during its decent from above and just to the rear of
the hook echo. Since that time I have seen several similar reflectivity
signatures. Further I advocate that the mesocyclone is not, in most
cases, a rotating updraft. Rather it is composed or a cyclonically
twisting updraft (UD) and a cyclonically twisting downdraft (DD). At
least in some storms I have what I believe is incontrovertible evidence
for this when we combine reflectivity, velocity, and spectrum width
data. The Lahoma, OK storm of 1994 was one of these. In fact, I can
demonstrate from these data that the RFD extends almost vertically
downward from about 50,000 ft or ~ 13 km!! In at least some supercells
(I believe HPs and Classics, especially) that is the case. This places
the RFD outside the CB cloud and all along the rear flank. The rainy
downdraft occurs within much of the precipitation cascade. I discussed
this idea to a fare extent with Bob Maddox and Keith Browning during the
period of developing the conveyer belt analog and concept. We very much
need storm photography, videos, and new data sets such as soundings,
aircraft, or some other data sources from the west of supercells hat
would tend to better delineate occurrences there. (I recognize the
problems with soundings being suppressed and forced out of the RFD.)
In the above 'dry intrusion' paper I suggest that the high PV or the RFD
might originate from the upper troposphere or lower stratosphere just as
with the ETC. I also discussed the idea that the evaporative cooling
during decent within the RFD created high PV owing to thermal
stratification. But the turbulence within the RFD would tend to disrupt
this mechanism. Then there was even the possibility of high SRH
entering the RFD from aloft. But all this must be considered within the
context of a region of decent where the air possessing four degrees of
freedom in its motion, passes through, downward, and out of the RFD all
along its vertical extent.
Then there is the relatively high CAPE in the tornadic RFDs that we must
account for. Much has been made about the thermal characteristics of
the RFD and correctly so after Paul Markowski's dissertation and ongoing
work. However, that is just one of the characteristics (as above) and
may be only one of two or three that contribute to tornadogenesis. I
feel that the origin of the RFD (which may well vary with the storm and
the environment) may be extremely important. Perhaps, due to storm
relative inflow into the RFD or for other, as yet unknown reasons, it
may be associated with high PV in some cases and in others it may not
be.
Thus, I don't feel we should over emphasize thermal RFD characteristics
alone but should also study the origin of the RFD (level, sounding
characteristics, etc.) and its other characteristics as well.
Obviously, thermal characteristics are just one more clue to the RFD
puzzle.
Up to this point I have said nothing about the important supercell
collapse stage accompanied by diminishing hail, echo top subsidence,
BWER and WER disappearance, weakening radar reflectivities, and
mesocyclone occlusion. This, of course, is when microburst and downburst
frequency increases, and tornadogenesis takes place. I have alluded to
it above but I will not add
to this already extremely long multipart post. I have said much about
this in several publications such as L&D '79.
For those of you who have read all three parts (and are still awake!) I
have one thing to say. Get A Life!!! LOL Now I will go back into
hibernation.
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
...............................................................
See also:
Severe Thunderstorm Evolution and Mesocyclone Structure as Related to
Tornadogenesis
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/107lemon1.htm
On the Mesocyclone "Dry Intrusion" and Tornadogenesis
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/lemon7.htm
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 12:10:59 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow page up finally
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Hi all
Trying to plug the SDS gap a little. Finally got up some info re the July
1969 cold outbreak in the Mid north of SA. The 'Advertiser' survivied
because I was the week of the first Moon landing and my parents kept the
papers!
As usual, any stories or memories....
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2/SnowWX.html
Phil
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Winter (?) Rolls On
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 16:23:11 +1000
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Hi Don, Jimmy and all,
Blackheath: 9.5C max today, that makes two single figure days in a row for
my place, great. 9.5mm for June. See my page for full details of June's
weather.
Hmmm, I didn't even get Jimmy's email, thank goodness Don had it at the
bottom of his email. It's not a problem with world.std, its some problems my
isp's end. :(
Yes, good points there Jimmy. I'm still very much a learner and it is true
that the models certainly have their limitations. I get mildly excited when
say, 2 or 3 models agree 4 days out but more so when there is similarities
among them, say, 72 hours out. Sometimes with the onset of the net etc, I
think we can rely too much on models. Nature has its way of dealing with
that, as you perhaps implied, Jimmy. Perhaps it will all tip the other way
soon. It usually does. I have this feeling too that maybe later in July and
into August, we could see some action here, and to the west.
Lindsay
From: "Don White"
To:
Sent: Sunday, July 01, 2001 10:23 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Winter (?) Rolls On
> I agree with Jimmy .... just have a feeling that the wetaher might not
> bee that boring soon.... it's happened like this before.
> Don W
>
> Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> > Andrew and Lindsay,
> >
> > Don't despair as the probability is that when it does come it will come
> > in full force. I am actually quite excited that it is lagging as you may
> > find that July may hit us hard. Well we shall see. And of course if I am
> > proven wrong, then October late season is something to look forward to.
> > Weather has its way of balancing itself but we find it when don't know
> > which way.
> >
> > Don't get me wrong. I am also disappointed with lack of action too but I
> > suppose over the years I have learned to pass the time so to speak. I
> > also advise not to look too far into models or at least get overexcited
> > over them when they look fantastic. This is why I like AVN as it only
> > goes 3 days out.
> >
> > Anyway enough from me.
> >
> > Jimmy Deguara
> >
> > At 11:27 AM 29/06/01 +1000, you wrote:
> >
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 18:09:43 +1000
From: Peter Creswick
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en]C-CCK-MCD NSCPCD47 (Win95; U)
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To: aussie-weather
Subject: aus-wx: Radar
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South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all. Pitty ours isn't as
good.
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/IR.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/ECAPE.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/EL.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/PE.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/BL.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/mrl5.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/PB.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/general_radar.htm
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.35.254.2]
From: "David Croan"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: USA report: addition
Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 18:34:36 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Jul 2001 08:34:37.0541 (UTC) FILETIME=[A9D55950:01C10208]
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Not mine nor Jimmy's!!.
Dave Lewison chased the same day that we scored the large wedge see near
Amarillo>>
http://www.wxchase.com/Docs/290501.html [my report]
At one stage Jimmy and I were arguing on which storm to chase; the one we
eventually did and the one I originally wanted to >>
http://www.wxchase.com/chasepics/2001/290502.jpg
Well if anyone is interested, take a look at Dave L's pics to see just what
was happening under that updraft tower. WOW!!! >>
http://www.nyshrm.org/dave/chase2001/may29.html
regards, David
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Awesome 1km res sat pic !!!
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 19:15:41 +1000
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Hi all
Check out this awesome 1km res satellite picture of SW WA taken around 4pm
this afternoon
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/010701_swwa.jpg
It's big - around 600k - but it's worth the wait!
It was downloaded from the NOAA Satellite Active Archive
(http://www.saa.noaa.gov). If anyone else wants to download these
themselves sing out and i'll send you some info. The files are quite large
(normally between 50 and 100mb) so you probably need cable
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 20:13:06 +1000
From: Matthew Smith
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: lightning
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Jul 2001 10:19:07.0168 (UTC) FILETIME=[42D28200:01C10217]
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few flashes of lightning just off the coast of Newcastle this evening...
Its been a while... love walking out and seeing an unexpected flash !
Anyway back to the state of origin.
Matt Smith
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussie"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 21:11:29 +1000
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I don't understand. What is dbZ's?
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
----- Original Message -----
From: "Peter Creswick"
To: "aussie-weather"
Sent: Sunday, July 01, 2001 6:09 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Radar
> South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all. Pitty ours isn't as
> good.
>
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/IR.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/ECAPE.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/EL.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/PE.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/BL.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/mrl5.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/PB.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/general_radar.htm
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 21:20:33 +1000
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Sorry to joke about it Matt but that's a great line. I cant help myself :)
> Its been a while... love walking out and seeing an unexpected flash !
Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "Matthew Smith"
To:
Sent: Sunday, July 01, 2001 8:13 PM
Subject: aus-wx: lightning
> few flashes of lightning just off the coast of Newcastle this evening...
>
> Its been a while... love walking out and seeing an unexpected flash !
>
> Anyway back to the state of origin.
>
> Matt Smith
>
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Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 22:23:06 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: USA report: addition
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi David and all,
Those pics of the LP structure were awesome. Now the decision was a
difficult one so which one do you choose? What if the storm we chased
didn't produce.........
Well our plan if this was the case was to chase the LP. I guess you can
then watch what others have chased I suppose and they are excellent pics.
Jimmy Deguara
At 06:34 PM 1/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Not mine nor Jimmy's!!.
>
>Dave Lewison chased the same day that we scored the large wedge see near
>Amarillo>>
>
>http://www.wxchase.com/Docs/290501.html [my report]
>
>At one stage Jimmy and I were arguing on which storm to chase; the one we
>eventually did and the one I originally wanted to >>
>
>http://www.wxchase.com/chasepics/2001/290502.jpg
>
>Well if anyone is interested, take a look at Dave L's pics to see just
>what was happening under that updraft tower. WOW!!! >>
>
>http://www.nyshrm.org/dave/chase2001/may29.html
>
>regards, David
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 22:25:43 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: USA report: addition
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi me again,
It seems that storm began as an LP and then followed a trend into a HP in
those pics.
At 06:34 PM 1/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Not mine nor Jimmy's!!.
>
>Dave Lewison chased the same day that we scored the large wedge see near
>Amarillo>>
>
>http://www.wxchase.com/Docs/290501.html [my report]
>
>At one stage Jimmy and I were arguing on which storm to chase; the one we
>eventually did and the one I originally wanted to >>
>
>http://www.wxchase.com/chasepics/2001/290502.jpg
>
>Well if anyone is interested, take a look at Dave L's pics to see just
>what was happening under that updraft tower. WOW!!! >>
>
>http://www.nyshrm.org/dave/chase2001/may29.html
>
>regards, David
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 22:46:53 +1000 (AEST)
From: Jonty Hall
To: Aussie Weather
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Warm June
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Don,
Cold and miserable it may be, but we aren't really noticing it up here,
you know with all the jumping up and down celebrating keeping us warm....
:-))))))))
Who needs a supercell when you've got an ALF????
Queensland, you bloody beauty! (Enough football, back to the wx...)
Cheers,
Jonty.
On Sun, 1 Jul 2001, Don White wrote:
> sydney's ave max in June reached 20 degrees for only the 2nd time in 142
> years ! Only 1957, with 20.3 degree av max beat it.
> What about Perth and Brisabane - pretty close to records I would assume
> but for the locals it will be cold and miserable in Briasbane later tonight.
> Don W
>
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Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 22:55:41 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne trip
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi particularly those in Victoria,
I will be travelling to Melbourne during the NSW school holidays in July
only for a few days as a gesture to take relatives there. I am not sure of
the dates as yet but I think it will be at the end of the first week and
over the weekend.
I suppose it would be great to catch up with some of the Victorians. I
suppose I will leave it at that.
Jimmy Deguara
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "David Croan"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning
Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 00:30:16 +1000
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>
> > Its been a while... love walking out and seeing an unexpected flash !
perhaps that what the blues needed tonight. What a disgrace.
Anyway, just awoken by some quite bright flashes of lightning off the
northern beaches of Sydney. Now 12:30 am with thunder.
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From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Possible cold air later this week.
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 08:12:04 +1000
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Hi all,
It is looking interesting for later in the week. From a model point of view
NoGaps, GASP, Unisys AVN, and even MRF are showing sub 540 air by Friday
00z. It's interesting to note that at this stage, the timing of it in these
models is quite similar.
Lets wait and see but at least it is something to keep an eye on. I hope I
haven't repeated anything from other posts here, I don't think i have been
receiving all my mail.
Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 09:13:48 +1000
From: Peter Creswick
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en]C-CCK-MCD NSCPCD47 (Win95; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, Bussie
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Radar, and radar reflectivity etc, is a subject all on it's own.
Start with the tutorial at:
http://www.skywarn.ampr.org/chapter1.htm
PC
Bussie wrote:
>
> I don't understand. What is dbZ's?
> Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Peter Creswick"
> To: "aussie-weather"
> Sent: Sunday, July 01, 2001 6:09 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Radar
>
> > South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all. Pitty ours isn't as
> > good.
> >
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/IR.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/ECAPE.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/EL.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/PE.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/BL.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/mrl5.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/PB.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/general_radar.htm
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> >
>
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From: David Jones
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)"
Subject: aus-wx: WX so far this winter.
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 09:56:47 +1000
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Andrew, Lindsay and others.... wondering where winter has gone, take a
lookie at the latest GASP forecast, with significant cyclogenesis forecasted
in the vicinity of Victoria later in the week. On the bases of this
scenario, we "should" see some significant rain and snow (though mostly
above ~1000 metres at this stage). The UK, US, and Japanese prog are all
heading in similar directions (am yet to see the new ECMWF for today).
BTW those of us whinging in SE Australia about the endless sunshine should
bare some thought for those in SW WA (see)
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=map&variable=deciles
&period=month&area=aus
Across SW WA the June rainfall was almost everywhere the lowest on record.
Any westerners got comments about how the dry is effecting things? Rainfall
for Perth so far for year is running only ~50% of normal, which must be
having an impact.
The other notable area in June was NE Queensland which was exceptionally
warm (around +3C anomalies for both maximum and minimum temperatures), with
the state average maximum +2.13C the highest on record (since 1950).
More generally across the country, it has been a mildish start to winter but
not unusually so. Across Australia June had a average maximum temperature
+1.0C above the 1961-30 average (8th warmest since 1950), while the mean
minimum was +0.31C above average (pretty much middle of "pack").
Cheers,
David.
Dr David Jones
Climate Analysis Section
National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
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From: David Jones
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)"
Subject: aus-wx: radar?
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 12:14:57 +1000
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>From: Peter Creswick
>Subject: aus-wx: Radar
>
>South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all. Pitty ours isn't as
>good.
err? In what way are these better than the excellent products avaliable
locally from the BOM network (eg www.bom.gov.au , www.weatherzone.com.au
etc.? ) Besides, when your country is about the size of Victoria, and double
the population of Australia monitoring is just a tad easier.
Cheers,
David
(BTW all my own thoughts!)
Climate Analysis Section
National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 10:15:39 +0800
From: "Phil Smith"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WX so far this winter.
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Well, David, you Aussies got it dry because we copped the lot right here.
The HKO staff are apparently having a long weekend because the final
record for June will not be available until after the 4th July but here
is an excerpt from the HKO June Summary up to 28th June:
========================
The weather of June 2001 was marked by persistent heavy rain and squally
thunderstorms under the repeated influence of active troughs of low
pressure near the south China coast. The monthly rainfall up to 28 June
amounted to 1050.4 millimetres, about three times the monthly normal
figure of 376.0 millimetres. This is a new record for June, previous
record being 962.9 millimetres in June 1966.
=========================
As we have had Typhoon Durian with all of its rainbands since then, I
expect the final total for the month will be well over 1.1 metres.
Still the rainbands of Durian are crossing us every few hours even though
its centre is now nearly 500 Km away in inland GuangXi Province and it is
supposed to be dissipating.
Now we have Tropical Storm Utor spinning up in the Philippine Sea which
will probably help ensure a damp July as well.
So if any of you Aussies want to experience a bit more moisture than you
have down there right now, just slip into your nearest travel agent and
book a trip to dank, damp, dripping, dreary, drizzly Hong Kong!
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
-----Original Message-----
From: David Jones
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)"
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 09:56:47 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: WX so far this winter.
> Andrew, Lindsay and others.... wondering where winter has gone, take a
> lookie at the latest GASP forecast, with significant cyclogenesis
> forecasted
> in the vicinity of Victoria later in the week. On the bases of this
> scenario, we "should" see some significant rain and snow (though mostly
> above ~1000 metres at this stage). The UK, US, and Japanese prog are
> all
> heading in similar directions (am yet to see the new ECMWF for today).
>
> BTW those of us whinging in SE Australia about the endless sunshine
> should
> bare some thought for those in SW WA (see)
> http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=map&variable=de
> ciles
> &period=month&area=aus
> Across SW WA the June rainfall was almost everywhere the lowest on
> record.
> Any westerners got comments about how the dry is effecting things?
> Rainfall
> for Perth so far for year is running only ~50% of normal, which must be
> having an impact.
>
> The other notable area in June was NE Queensland which was
> exceptionally
> warm (around +3C anomalies for both maximum and minimum temperatures),
> with
> the state average maximum +2.13C the highest on record (since 1950).
> More generally across the country, it has been a mildish start to
> winter but
> not unusually so. Across Australia June had a average maximum
> temperature
> +1.0C above the 1961-30 average (8th warmest since 1950), while the
> mean
> minimum was +0.31C above average (pretty much middle of "pack").
>
> Cheers,
>
> David.
>
> Dr David Jones
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 12:57:40 +1000
From: Peter Creswick
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CC: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: radar?
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
No argument with the geographic or demographic factors as such, but
they are not relevant either. The comment concerned the output from
existing radar. It's a question of excessively "dumbing down" the
information available from the radar that cost a heap of our hard
earned tax dollars. Rain rate displays are OK as far as they go, but
they are the result of heavily filtered and processed data, you could
say, excessively so. As David would well know, rain rate alone is not
the issue. Not all storms precipitate, and besides, storm structure,
winds etc are as big, if not a bigger issue, than rain anyway. Anyone
who knows how radar works can glean a lot from the raw dbZ output.
PC
David Jones wrote:
>
> >From: Peter Creswick
> >Subject: aus-wx: Radar
> >
> >South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all. Pitty ours isn't as
> >good.
>
> err? In what way are these better than the excellent products avaliable
> locally from the BOM network (eg www.bom.gov.au , www.weatherzone.com.au
> etc.? ) Besides, when your country is about the size of Victoria, and double
> the population of Australia monitoring is just a tad easier.
>
> Cheers,
>
> David
> (BTW all my own thoughts!)
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
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From: "Laurier Williams"
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com"
Subject: aus-wx: Cold, wet outbreak for Thurs/Fri?
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 13:06:00 +1000
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The EC now agrees with GASP and MRF in predicting a moderately cold outbreak
over Vic and NSW for late Thursday or Friday. The circumstances, however,
are unusual, and there's a chance of snow along the eastern parts of the
Great Divide in NSW, and possibly widespread in Victoria.
All three models are consistent in predicting a low to form south of New
Caledonia and east of Brisbane during Wednesday, then to move steadily SW to
eastern Bass Strait by late Friday before shifting away to the E or SE.
Meantime, a high in the Bight ridging SE will drag colder air up from around
50S over the southeast. Differences in treatment start to appear here.
EC has a substantial cold pool with central thickness of 534 over about
Young at 12z Thursday, then washes out to a broad upper trough lying from
Adelaide to Brisbane around 542 by 12z Friday. EC drops the surface low to
~~990hPa just east of Gabo Island 12z Friday, then moves it slowly east and
deepening on Sat keeping winds mostly SW over Vic and NSW.
GASP develops 2 low centres by Thursday night, one south of Lord Howe
Island, and another south of Adelaide, which have merged into a 994 low in
eastern Bass Strait by Friday night. Consequently, the colder air tracks
farther west and north, with a central thickness of 532 over Adelaide on
Thursday night and 531 over the western Northern Tablelands of NSW by Friday
night. Winds over Vic and NSW are mostly westerly, but GASP has 10 to 40mm
of precip over eastern Vic and the NSW Southern Tablelands for the 48 hours
to Sat night, and 5 to 15 up into the Central Tablelands. Snow hounds will
be cheering on the local model!
MRF keeps the low farther east and shallower, but still has Victoria and
much of southern and central NSW sub-540 thickness by Friday morning. Precip
totals are pretty light, however, in a SW flow. NOGAPS is similar, but
doesn't develop a low centre; rather has a deep trough extending down the
NSW coast at this time, and, like MRF, little precip.
Significantly, none of the models has any SW or S jet development during the
period, so it won't be a true polar outbreak as air will mostly be arriving
from around 50S. However, the potential for interaction between the ECL and
colder air at last gives us something interesting to watch.
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Subject: Re: aus-wx: radar?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 13:39:22 +1000 (EST)
From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter)
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Uhh, interesting and potentially volatile discussion
developing here. Let me throw in some info that connects the
BOM rain rate (RR) to the reflectivity (dBZ). I did these calculations as I have
had difficulties in interpreting the rain rates, similar to Peter.
RR: <0.3 0.3-2 2-10 10-20 20-40 40-100 >100
dBZ: <14.6 14.6-27.8 27.8-39.0 39.0-43.8 43.8-48.6 48.6-55.0 >55.0
black dkblue lgtblue yellow green pink red
This table assumes the underlying relationship
Z = 200*RR^1.6
where Z is the radar reflectivity factor, a function of the reflector
particle diameter (to the _sixth_ power) and the particle density
integrated over a radar sampling volume.
The more common "reflectivity" is the scaled reflectivity factor
dBZ = 10 * log(Z)
(log to the base of 10).
It's interesting to note that the common BOM radar display shows
no returns below 14.6 dBZ precluding the detection of clear air boundaries
(important for convective initiation) and (I am guessing) some light rain areas.
> No argument with the geographic or demographic factors as such, but
> they are not relevant either. The comment concerned the output from
> existing radar. It's a question of excessively "dumbing down" the
> information available from the radar that cost a heap of our hard
> earned tax dollars.
> Rain rate displays are OK as far as they go, but
> they are the result of heavily filtered and processed data, you could
> say, excessively so.
Might be an issue of what is most suitable for "the public" [sic]. Reflectivities
are "truer" information, while "rain rates" are more commonly understood.
I am not sure how exactly the raw power returns are processed before they
end up as rain rates on the web. But the conversion from dBZ to RR seems
to be a simple step by itself.
> As David would well know, rain rate alone is not
> the issue. Not all storms precipitate, and besides, storm structure,
> winds etc are as big, if not a bigger issue, than rain anyway. Anyone
> who knows how radar works can glean a lot from the raw dbZ output.
Radars need reflectors to see - storm structures and winds are invisible
to a radar without dielectric hydrometeors (unfortunately!).
Storm structure is best observed with a camcorder from under the updraught base :)
> David Jones wrote:
> >
> > >From: Peter Creswick
> > >Subject: aus-wx: Radar
> > >
> > >South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all. Pitty ours isn't as
> > >good.
> >
> > err? In what way are these better than the excellent products avaliable
> > locally from the BOM network (eg www.bom.gov.au , www.weatherzone.com.au
> > etc.? ) Besides, when your country is about the size of Victoria, and double
> > the population of Australia monitoring is just a tad easier.
It's the old song. The preferred 10 cm Doppler radar coverage of all of Australia
is too expensive to be reality given far less than 20 million tax payers and
given that radar acquisition is not the nation's top priority in Canberra (or Melbourne).
Instead we have (primarily) a coastal fringe of 5 cm coverage. That's not too bad,
given the circumstances.
--------------------------------
Harald Richter
BMRC
PO Box 1289K
Melbourne VIC 3001
Australia
ph: +61 3 9669 4501
fax: +61 3 9669 4660
email: h.richter at bom.gov.au
url: soon(ish)
--------------------------------
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From: "Rune Peitersen"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: tstorm forecast
Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 16:26:10 +1000
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Very nice to see thunderstorms forecast for SE NSW for Friday already
and it's only Monday. I have never seen storms forecast 3 or 4 days out in
July for any region in NSW, must be a vigorous system.
Plus seeing the isolated tstorms developing just off the Sydney coast from
Manly today was a sight for sore eyes.
_________________________________________________________________________
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From: "Laurier Williams"
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com"
Subject: aus-wx: Reduction in GMS satpix from 4 July
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 16:24:04 +1000
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Some bad news for southern ocean watchers -- especially those looking for
cold outbreaks surging up from the south. From this Wednesday, GMS-5 will be
reducing its imagery availability to cover only as far south as 49 degrees S
(~700km south of Hobart), while the number of transmissions daily will be
nearly halved, from 28 to 16 per day. This situation is because GMS-5 is now
operating beyond its design life, with its expected replacement (MTSAT-1)
lost in a launch failure late in 1999. The replacement, MTSAT-1R, is
expected early in 2003. Reducing the number and extent of scans is a
precaution to extend GMS-5's usable life.
The main impact will be loss of Southern Ocean satellite data south of
Australia. The IndoEx satellite (when working) covers westwards from the
longitude of the WA/SA border, and GOES West covers from the western Tasman
eastwards. The polar-orbiting satellite data from the CSIRO
(http://www.marine.csiro.au/~lband/weather/) and DOLA
(http://www.rss.dola.wa.gov.au/newsite/noaaql/NOAAql.html) will probably be
the best substitute -- anyone know of better?
Laurier
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: NinnesM at franklins.com.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: tstorm forecast
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 16:47:30 +1000
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Sure was a pretty good day Rune...I've been watching little pulses going up
and down around Sydney all day.
Fingers crossed for later in the week eh?
Mal Ninnes
> ----------
> From: Rune Peitersen[SMTP:runepeitersen at hotmail.com]
> Sent: Monday, 2 July 2001 16:26
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: tstorm forecast
>
> Very nice to see thunderstorms forecast for SE NSW for Friday
> already
> and it's only Monday. I have never seen storms forecast 3 or 4 days out in
>
> July for any region in NSW, must be a vigorous system.
> Plus seeing the isolated tstorms developing just off the Sydney coast
> from
> Manly today was a sight for sore eyes.
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 16:46:44 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Matt,
I suppose I saw the build up during the afternoon and also saw the
"stratocumulus" castellanus in the morning. There definitely was colder air
coming through evident from the altostratus patches and some virga..
I was expecting lightning and Geoff confirmed it.
Jimmy Deguara
At 08:13 PM 1/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
>few flashes of lightning just off the coast of Newcastle this evening...
>
>Its been a while... love walking out and seeing an unexpected flash !
>
>Anyway back to the state of origin.
>
>Matt Smith
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 16:56:50 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: radar?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
At 01:39 PM 2/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Storm structure is best observed with a camcorder from under the updraught
>base :)
I like that Harold. You have the Storm Chaser instinct in you or you have
developed it by talking to too many chasers in the US and here...:)
Great stuff...
Jimmy Deguara
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 16:51:34 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Hank de Wit
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Reduction in GMS satpix from 4 July
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At 04:24 PM 2/07/2001 +1000, Laurier Williams wrote:
>Some bad news for southern ocean watchers -- especially those looking for
>cold outbreaks surging up from the south. From this Wednesday, GMS-5 will be
>reducing its imagery availability to cover only as far south as 49 degrees S
>(~700km south of Hobart), while the number of transmissions daily will be
>nearly halved, from 28 to 16 per day. This situation is because GMS-5 is now
>operating beyond its design life, with its expected replacement (MTSAT-1)
>lost in a launch failure late in 1999. The replacement, MTSAT-1R, is
>expected early in 2003. Reducing the number and extent of scans is a
>precaution to extend GMS-5's usable life.
For those interested, here is some background that has been circulated
internally within the BOM. It fleshes out Laurier's email just a tad. It
sounds frightening.
Background
2. Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) program is a key
part of the Global Observing System of the World Meteorological
Organization. For over two decades GMS cloud images have been of vital
importance to the operations of national meteorological services
especially in the Asia-Pacific region, including the Bureau. The
current satellite in the series, GMS-5, was due to be replaced by the
Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) in late 1999 but
unfortunately MTSAT was lost due to a launch vehicle failure. Since
that time the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has been taking steps to
ensure GMS-5 observations continue up to the launch of MTSAT-1R in
early 2003.
3. However GMS-5 is now well beyond its design life. While most
subsystems are in excellent condition such as the Data Collection
Platform facility which relays signals from
Automatic Weather Stations in the Asia-Pacific region, JMA has now
advised that difficulties are continuing with lubrication buildup in the
southernmost portion of GMS-5's scanning mirror mechanism which is used
to generate full disk cloud images of the earth.
Changes in imagery transmissions
4. In an attempt to extend GMS-5 operations, JMA will therefore reduce
the extent of the mirror's north/south scan so that each image will only
extend as far south as latitude 49 degrees south. As a further
preservation strategy the number of GMS-5 images per day over the
southern hemisphere will be reduced from 28 to 16 representing a drop
from current hourly imagery to around 2-hourly. The observations
(images) which will be available from GMS-5 are as follows:
· full disk images: 16 times per day at 0000, 0300, 0500, 0530, 0600,
0900, 1100, 1130, 1200, 1500, 1700, 1730, 1800, 2100, 2300, 2330 UTC.
The southern end of every image will be 49 degrees south latitude;
· northern hemisphere images: 12 times per day at 0100, 0200, 0400,
0700, 0800, 1000, 1300, 1400, 1600, 1900, 2000, 2200 UTC.
Hence the southern hemisphere imagery effectively comprises 3-hourly
imagery plus an additional 8 images clustered around the four times per
day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) when atmospheric winds are derived by tracking
cloud features on sets of three successive images.
5. These changes are scheduled to occur at 0100 UTC (e.g. 1100 EST) on
Wednesday 4 July 2001.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Mega-size Tropical Storm (N.Hemisphere)
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 17:50:27 +1000
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Hi all TC watchers (Aussie and world
wide)
Have you ever seen a circulation as big at Tropical
Storm Utor before. Its cloud structure is bigger than the entire state of QLD
and Northern Territory combined !
Seemed to develop from what, in Australia we
would initially call a monsoon low. It will be worth a watch to see how quickly
a dense central structure develops and how powerful the system may become.
Regards
Simon
From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WX so far this winter.
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 18:42:02 +1000
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Hi all,
Yeah, good point David. Its easy to get involved with your own neck of the
woods and loose track of weather in other spots around the country. Hope the
south western aussies get some badly needed rain soon. Has anyone got any
pics of the situation? It'd be interesting to see how its all fairing. Many
web cams at all in WA?
Thanks Laurier for that nice appraisal of the potential cold weather for the
south east, too. I've got the camera loaded and ready. My site is thirsty
for some new pics. I have some from the 14/15th of June, of Oberon snow, yet
to be processed.
Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "David Jones"
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)"
Sent: Monday, July 02, 2001 9:56 AM
Subject: aus-wx: WX so far this winter.
> Andrew, Lindsay and others.... wondering where winter has gone, take a
> lookie at the latest GASP forecast, with significant cyclogenesis
forecasted
> in the vicinity of Victoria later in the week. On the bases of this
> scenario, we "should" see some significant rain and snow (though mostly
> above ~1000 metres at this stage). The UK, US, and Japanese prog are all
> heading in similar directions (am yet to see the new ECMWF for today).
>
> BTW those of us whinging in SE Australia about the endless sunshine should
> bare some thought for those in SW WA (see)
>
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=map&variable=deciles
> &period=month&area=aus
> Across SW WA the June rainfall was almost everywhere the lowest on record.
> Any westerners got comments about how the dry is effecting things?
Rainfall
> for Perth so far for year is running only ~50% of normal, which must be
> having an impact.
>
> The other notable area in June was NE Queensland which was exceptionally
> warm (around +3C anomalies for both maximum and minimum temperatures),
with
> the state average maximum +2.13C the highest on record (since 1950).
> More generally across the country, it has been a mildish start to winter
but
> not unusually so. Across Australia June had a average maximum temperature
> +1.0C above the 1961-30 average (8th warmest since 1950), while the mean
> minimum was +0.31C above average (pretty much middle of "pack").
>
> Cheers,
>
> David.
>
> Dr David Jones
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 20:19:59 +1000
From: Tony & Damian
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Hail in Katoomba
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A good fall of small pellet hail & heavy rain crossed over the Katoomba
area around 7:15pm tonight. It's a shame it didn't last as my garden is
nothing but dust from the serious lack of rain, but here's hoping for
rain or better yet, snow at the end of the week!
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 21:02:57 +1000 (EST)
From: Robert Goler
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Mini-chase yesterday
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Hey all
Thanks to info from Jane, I managed to go on a little chase out Ballarat
way yesterday. Here's what I saw:
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_07_01/today.html
(yes, I saw a webpage :)
There was some cumulus congestus around which started to beef up a bit
more around sunset. Managed to drive through some small hail as well.
In all it's not really that spectacular, but better than nothing, and it
enabled me to test out my camcorder. The uploaded images are perhaps a
bit too big as you can see the pixels, but I'll improve that next time
'round.
I've also put Melbourne's local radar for yesterday up on the page.
I'll be interested to see any snaps Jane took.
Cheers
--
Robert A. Goler
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia
ph. +61 3 9905 4424
email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
--
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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 21:08:08 +1000
From: Don White
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Win98; en-US; m18) Gecko/20001120 Netscape6/6.0 (CCK -PCUSER)
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To: Aussie Weather
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney - Tonight (Monday)
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Hi all,
Does any one those living in the Greater Western parts of Sydney got any
comments on anything tonight. I note that Penrith AWS had 30 mm between
8 and 10 pm and 6 mm at Richmond - Radar didn't look that heavy. What
was it?
Don W
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X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 00:35:50 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mega-size Tropical Storm (N.Hemisphere)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All.
> Hi all TC watchers (Aussie and world wide) Have you ever seen a
>circulation as big at Tropical Storm Utor before. Its cloud structure is
>bigger than the entire state of QLD and Northern Territory combined !
>Seemed to develop from what, in Australia we would initially call a
>monsoon low. It will be worth a watch to see how quickly a dense central
>structure develops and how powerful the system may become. Regards
>Simon
To see just how BIG the circulation is in context, have a look at the GMS5
VIS-IR-WV composite full disk image at
http://users.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm before 4pm AEST on the 4th
(I will be updating it again sometime after 4pm, all going to plan). Click
on the image if you want to see the full resolution version.
It looks like it will become a major cyclone over the next couple of days.
Regards,
Carl.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mini-chase yesterday
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 22:02:32 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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"mini-chase"??????
all 414kms of it.... (thank goodness petrol was <80c a litre)
I'll upload my pics when I manage to get them off the digital cam. I
ended up further south than Robert while hunting an embedded Cb (nothing
like winter for getting in some practice) - found it & got melted hail
in the process, a 10-20 & a temperature of 9.2C, so I was quite
pleased. Found a couple of good lookouts & SCD met 10 calves - I'm not
quite sure who was the most bemused... Cadence or the calves......
Not much of a chase report but there'll be some nice pics (structure &
sunsets) whe I manage to retrieve them
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
>
> Hey all
>
> Thanks to info from Jane, I managed to go on a little chase out
Ballarat
> way yesterday. Here's what I saw:
>
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_07_01/today.html
> (yes, I saw a webpage :)
>
> There was some cumulus congestus around which started to beef up a bit
> more around sunset. Managed to drive through some small hail as well.
> In all it's not really that spectacular, but better than nothing, and
it
> enabled me to test out my camcorder. The uploaded images are perhaps
a
> bit too big as you can see the pixels, but I'll improve that next time
> 'round.
>
> I've also put Melbourne's local radar for yesterday up on the page.
>
> I'll be interested to see any snaps Jane took.
>
>
> Cheers
>
> --
>
> Robert A. Goler
>
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
>
> ph. +61 3 9905 4424
> email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
> --
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 01:14:35 +1000 (EST)
From: Robert Goler
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mini-chase yesterday
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
On Mon, 2 Jul 2001, Jane ONeill wrote:
> "mini-chase"??????
> all 414kms of it.... (thank goodness petrol was <80c a litre)
Well, I'm sure that compared to your 'normal' chases, 414kms would qualify
as mini :) And I picked up petrol for 79.5 c/l which wasn't too shabby.
Cheers
--
Robert A. Goler
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia
ph. +61 3 9905 4424
email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
--
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula"
To: "aus-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 15:20:01 -0700
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Hi,
I noticed some discussion on this forum about the upcomming winter weather
in aus and thought i would add my post originally to ski.com to get some
comments here.
Just to mention, I had my most sucessfull chase ever with a beautifull
classic supercell out in Nebraska on Saturday. We were on it for over 5
hours, watching it go from a little cu to a giant. Will have a report on it
by the end of the week ;) More chase days comming up in Wyo!
----[ski.com post]---
Hi Guys,
Well after a weekend of 'celebrations' and my best storm chase ever I'm back
at work and totally stoked for all of you back in Australia - things are
looking *real* good.
As mentioned previously, the rain/snow line may be an issue at first but i'm
confident of the biggest snowfall for the season so far. I think initially
there will be a mix and then maybe some significant rain but, hopefully, for
only a short priod while the air gets whipped around from the Tasman. After
that, it's on!
Looking at the SST's and the upper level trough forecast to come across, the
models are producing a BOMB - rapid cyclogensis off the East coast.
Everything looks spot on and the system should 'stack up' off the east coast
with a closed circulation right to 300mb. The system is forecast to cut-off
from the main baroclinic flow with a strong ridge building and intensfying
over the WA region. Considierng the momentumn that low is going to have,
it's going to spin for a while, coupled with the high, I would not be
suprised to see several fronts move straight up from the south over the next
week or more, it's going to be wild!
And for the storm chasers, it's all going to start with some possible cold
air thunderstorms comming off Bass Strait with possible waterspout sightings
definatly on the cards! Wish i was there...
Back to the snow issue..there could be some seriously good snowfalls. I'd be
looking for 50cm in Baw Baw and probbaly a little less in the central vic
alps. But this is only for the first wave of the system. If the cut-off low
sits there and the high over WA cooperates, expect coninuing snowfall, to
very low levels, late this week and into next weekend (thats out past
144hrs). If this all goes, and judging by the ECMWF, there is a good chance
that the long wave is going to coperate, a storm total of 1m across most of
the alps is definatly not out of the question. This would be a replica of
the storm that dropped 1m+ in May 2000. Here's hoping everyone!
For the pesismists who want to keep there feet on the ground, there are some
modes of faliure to consider. The 500mb vorticity looks good for
cyclogenesis but it is 'thin' in that it could be hit or miss as to whether
the surface low will form north enough to couple with the upper level
trough. I only mention this to mention it. I do not think this is an issue
at all and current obs already have the 'kink' forming on the leading edge
of this cold front. Not to mention that the upper level motion seems to have
been pushing nicely across the region to set-up for coupling.
Rain could be a real issue for a day or so as the low intensifies but,
again, i think this will only be an initial occureence and cold air will
swing through to keep the snow comming! All in all, this is a very exciting
system and the forecast patterns are looking good for a very long lived snow
event.
Cheers, Lyle
|
- -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- -- - -
|
| Graduate Research Assistant /\
. Department of Atmospheric Science _ / \
. Colorado State University / \ / \
ph: +1 (970) 491 7785 / \/~~~~~~\/\
. fax: +1 (970) 491 8166 /~~~~/ / \
email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu / / / \
web: http://reef.atmos.colostate.edu/lyle/ / \
.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 08:22:21 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold, wet outbreak for Thurs/Fri?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>GASP develops 2 low centres by Thursday night, one south of Lord Howe
>Island, and another south of Adelaide, which have merged into a 994 low in
>eastern Bass Strait by Friday night. Consequently, the colder air tracks
>farther west and north, with a central thickness of 532 over Adelaide on
>Thursday night and 531 over the western Northern Tablelands of NSW by Friday
>night. Winds over Vic and NSW are mostly westerly, but GASP has 10 to 40mm
>of precip over eastern Vic and the NSW Southern Tablelands for the 48 hours
>to Sat night, and 5 to 15 up into the Central Tablelands. Snow hounds will
>be cheering on the local model!
>Laurier Williams
>Australian Weather News
>http://www.australianweathernews.com
>
Ohhhhh baby, do I like the look of that. Please let it be true ;)
Phil
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)"
Subject: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 09:01:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
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Lyle and others, ain't second guessing the models in advance fun! Of course,
to keep us on our toes the new batch of progs have started coming in and
these show some variations to the scenarios. Most notably, the UK is turning
out a rather warm but impressive bomb for Friday, with a pressure drop (due
to development rather than advection) of some 25hPa in 24 hours near Gabo
Island (central pressures around 985hPa). Both GASP and UK now develop a
strong warm and moist wrap around on the southern side of the low, with core
thickness values approaching 550 gpdm near Bass Strait late in week or
weekend. The cold pool associated with the lows is progged to hover near
southern NSW through the event, with a quite remarkable baroclinic zone to
its south with (for example) 850 hPa temperatures being around 8C warmer
over Bass Strait/Tassie than southern NSW on Friday night. **IF** GASP and
UK are right, this system could be a serious rain producer... in fact their
would seem potential for a "very heavy rain" situation in the usual spots
(Otways, south Gippsland Hills, NE Tasmania etc.) depending on the exact
placement of the low and resultant onshore flow trajectories. As for
snow.... it look bad for Tassie but probably very good for NSW. Victoria is
anyone's guess?
Cheers,
David
Dr David Jones
Climate Analysis Section
National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 09:43:32 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.77 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney & Brisbane Wx
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Sat pic looks rather interesting for Sydney and a bit west, further
north towards SE QLD. More so for Sydney though, what are people's
thoughts? I was a little surprised they went for showers, the sounding
is very impressive the freezing level is at 800mb, 500mb temp is
-26C(!!!) and -43C 365mb before a small inversion, -46C at 300mb though.
If it gets to 16/9 (PBL averaged DP) it's unstable to 390mb in Sydney,
the max temp forecast is 18C. Looking at radar there appears to be
strong showers/storms out to sea at the moment, some of them pulsing
into the pink. I realise there'll be a weak trough out to sea and that
will act as a trigger in the wrong place, but is there a possibility of
something over land later this arvo for Sydney???
Of a little less interest, the sat pic wasn't quite what I was expecting
for us in SE QLD! The air is very cold, but there's a significant
inversion just below 500mb, -17C at 520mb, but -14C from 500mb to 420mb!
-34C at 300mb though. The BoM are going for local thunder on the border
ranges - there were some weak Cbs and large showers yesterday. The air
over us however will get colder as this upper trough continues to
amplify somewhat. This is going to be a wild card - we could see some
hailstorms if the cold air gets here in time, the 400mb temps are
looking to drop from -18C to -28C according to AVN!
Something to keep an eye on though...
AC
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert"
To:
Subject: Re: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 09:51:00 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Hi David and all.
There has been a marked change in the atmos: set up over south-eastern Aus
over the past several days, the development of this system and its location
will be critical in respect to where enhanced rainfall will occur, its also
possible for a surge of cold air to wrap around at some stage. Its also
interesting to note a progressive westward motion of a region of
cyclogenisis which over the past 3 weeks has favoured either west or east of
New Zealand to near Victoria this Friday. Have you noticed the reverse
upstream intensification process over the broad scale? at other times.
Regards Clyve Herbert,
----- Original Message -----
From: David Jones
To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)
Sent: Tuesday, July 03, 2001 9:01 AM
Subject: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?
> Lyle and others, ain't second guessing the models in advance fun! Of
course,
> to keep us on our toes the new batch of progs have started coming in and
> these show some variations to the scenarios. Most notably, the UK is
turning
> out a rather warm but impressive bomb for Friday, with a pressure drop
(due
> to development rather than advection) of some 25hPa in 24 hours near Gabo
> Island (central pressures around 985hPa). Both GASP and UK now develop a
> strong warm and moist wrap around on the southern side of the low, with
core
> thickness values approaching 550 gpdm near Bass Strait late in week or
> weekend. The cold pool associated with the lows is progged to hover near
> southern NSW through the event, with a quite remarkable baroclinic zone to
> its south with (for example) 850 hPa temperatures being around 8C warmer
> over Bass Strait/Tassie than southern NSW on Friday night. **IF** GASP and
> UK are right, this system could be a serious rain producer... in fact
their
> would seem potential for a "very heavy rain" situation in the usual spots
> (Otways, south Gippsland Hills, NE Tasmania etc.) depending on the exact
> placement of the low and resultant onshore flow trajectories. As for
> snow.... it look bad for Tassie but probably very good for NSW. Victoria
is
> anyone's guess?
>
> Cheers,
>
> David
>
> Dr David Jones
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney & Brisbane Wx
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 10:13:33 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jul 2001 00:13:59.0429 (UTC) FILETIME=[0E8CB350:01C10355]
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Hi Supercell again.
The area of vorticity off central NSW can be traced to the weak mid level
trough and low over Vic on Sunday.Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius
To: Australian Weather Mailing List
Sent: Tuesday, July 03, 2001 9:43 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney & Brisbane Wx
> Hi all,
>
> Sat pic looks rather interesting for Sydney and a bit west, further
> north towards SE QLD. More so for Sydney though, what are people's
> thoughts? I was a little surprised they went for showers, the sounding
> is very impressive the freezing level is at 800mb, 500mb temp is
> -26C(!!!) and -43C 365mb before a small inversion, -46C at 300mb though.
> If it gets to 16/9 (PBL averaged DP) it's unstable to 390mb in Sydney,
> the max temp forecast is 18C. Looking at radar there appears to be
> strong showers/storms out to sea at the moment, some of them pulsing
> into the pink. I realise there'll be a weak trough out to sea and that
> will act as a trigger in the wrong place, but is there a possibility of
> something over land later this arvo for Sydney???
>
> Of a little less interest, the sat pic wasn't quite what I was expecting
> for us in SE QLD! The air is very cold, but there's a significant
> inversion just below 500mb, -17C at 520mb, but -14C from 500mb to 420mb!
> -34C at 300mb though. The BoM are going for local thunder on the border
> ranges - there were some weak Cbs and large showers yesterday. The air
> over us however will get colder as this upper trough continues to
> amplify somewhat. This is going to be a wild card - we could see some
> hailstorms if the cold air gets here in time, the 400mb temps are
> looking to drop from -18C to -28C according to AVN!
>
> Something to keep an eye on though...
>
> AC
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney & Brisbane Wx
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 10:03:40 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jul 2001 00:04:06.0515 (UTC) FILETIME=[AD253430:01C10353]
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Hi Supercell.
It was interesting to observe over Victoria on Sunday a similar structure
that ended up producing some reasonable showers and local hail which caught
"some" by surprise, the atmosphere was conditionally unstable always worth
watching!.best wishes Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius
To: Australian Weather Mailing List
Sent: Tuesday, July 03, 2001 9:43 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney & Brisbane Wx
> Hi all,
>
> Sat pic looks rather interesting for Sydney and a bit west, further
> north towards SE QLD. More so for Sydney though, what are people's
> thoughts? I was a little surprised they went for showers, the sounding
> is very impressive the freezing level is at 800mb, 500mb temp is
> -26C(!!!) and -43C 365mb before a small inversion, -46C at 300mb though.
> If it gets to 16/9 (PBL averaged DP) it's unstable to 390mb in Sydney,
> the max temp forecast is 18C. Looking at radar there appears to be
> strong showers/storms out to sea at the moment, some of them pulsing
> into the pink. I realise there'll be a weak trough out to sea and that
> will act as a trigger in the wrong place, but is there a possibility of
> something over land later this arvo for Sydney???
>
> Of a little less interest, the sat pic wasn't quite what I was expecting
> for us in SE QLD! The air is very cold, but there's a significant
> inversion just below 500mb, -17C at 520mb, but -14C from 500mb to 420mb!
> -34C at 300mb though. The BoM are going for local thunder on the border
> ranges - there were some weak Cbs and large showers yesterday. The air
> over us however will get colder as this upper trough continues to
> amplify somewhat. This is going to be a wild card - we could see some
> hailstorms if the cold air gets here in time, the 400mb temps are
> looking to drop from -18C to -28C according to AVN!
>
> Something to keep an eye on though...
>
> AC
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [141.132.130.120]
From: "Leslie Baxter"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Turkey Soup!
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 02:23:03
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jul 2001 02:23:03.0936 (UTC) FILETIME=[16A2B000:01C10367]
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Hey all
Well it was a fun weekend, we had turkey towers all weekend from friday till
monday, I took a few happy snaps at the gobble gobblers, and we had some
heavy showers from the turkey's late saturday avo/night. I also watched the
weekend weather reports on the TV, and well once again I felt sick,
absolutally pathetic! No mention of the rain we had (was having!). The
Channel 7 report was attroscious! Fine and partly cloudly!? With turkey's!
That's crazy. something needs to be done.
Anyway the weather is interesting at the moment, with morning frosts and
then the turkey's get up in the late avo, feels like a summer style upper
low, except it's not warm enough.
Anyway that'll do for now, when I get the pics I'll have them scanned
Cheers
Les Baxter
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Subject: Re: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 12:22:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi folk,
Lunchtime Bom forecast for Friday for Central Tablelands:Thunder, possible
hail, snow to 800 metres and strong winds. Cold.
That would do me just fine!
Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "David Jones"
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)"
Sent: Tuesday, July 03, 2001 9:01 AM
Subject: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?
> Lyle and others, ain't second guessing the models in advance fun! Of
course,
> to keep us on our toes the new batch of progs have started coming in and
> these show some variations to the scenarios. Most notably, the UK is
turning
> out a rather warm but impressive bomb for Friday, with a pressure drop
(due
> to development rather than advection) of some 25hPa in 24 hours near Gabo
> Island (central pressures around 985hPa). Both GASP and UK now develop a
> strong warm and moist wrap around on the southern side of the low, with
core
> thickness values approaching 550 gpdm near Bass Strait late in week or
> weekend. The cold pool associated with the lows is progged to hover near
> southern NSW through the event, with a quite remarkable baroclinic zone to
> its south with (for example) 850 hPa temperatures being around 8C warmer
> over Bass Strait/Tassie than southern NSW on Friday night. **IF** GASP and
> UK are right, this system could be a serious rain producer... in fact
their
> would seem potential for a "very heavy rain" situation in the usual spots
> (Otways, south Gippsland Hills, NE Tasmania etc.) depending on the exact
> placement of the low and resultant onshore flow trajectories. As for
> snow.... it look bad for Tassie but probably very good for NSW. Victoria
is
> anyone's guess?
>
> Cheers,
>
> David
>
> Dr David Jones
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Conditionally Unstable, SE,QLD and most of eastern NSW.
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 13:07:47 +1000
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Hi all.
Looks to be conditionally unstable over most of the eastern parts of NSW and
southeast QLD, there could be some reasonable to decent CB developments over
these parts today especially the northern Tablelands,regards Clyve H.
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Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 13:18:39 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Hank de Wit
Subject: aus-wx: GMS5 Media Release
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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The BOM's Media Release on the GMS5 changes. I don't think there is much
new there.
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/ho/20010703.shtml
Cheers
Hank
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From: "Nathan Smith"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: hail in toowoomba
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 14:04:25 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jul 2001 04:04:26.0148 (UTC) FILETIME=[3FEA9640:01C10375]
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just had heavy rain and some small hail in Toowoomba starting at 1:30pm and
going for about half an hour.
it's freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezing here
have fun
Nate
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Subject: aus-wx: WEATHER: NSW coastline
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 14:30:45 +1000 (EST)
From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter)
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Hi all:
In addition to Clyve's message of hope, there's moderate
lightning activity just off the C and N NSW coastline with some decent
lapse rates overspreading equally decent SSTs. The showers
and storms are arranged in a vaguely linear formation, with the
N (tail) end having brought some precip to Toowoomba.
If this morning's BRI sounding hasn't changed dramatically,
none of the N convection has the chance to stand tall as
a sizeable inversion caps activity around 500 hPa.
My coordinates of choice ATM would be the Coffs Harbour/GRafton/Yamba
area unless you own a fast boat.
One of the better cells was located about 70 km ENE of
Coffs Harbour at 3:30 UTC (1:30 pm ET) with 2 distinct cores exceeding
~50 dBZ (i.e. pink) and a longish precip shield extending to the SE.
It's July, and I'll take it.
Cheers, Harald
--
--------------------------------
Harald Richter
BMRC
PO Box 1289K
Melbourne VIC 3001
Australia
ph: +61 3 9669 4501
fax: +61 3 9669 4660
email: h.richter at bom.gov.au
url: soon(ish)
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Dean McWhinney"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 14:37:04 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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IDW16N00
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1426 on Tuesday the 3rd of July 2001
This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
Northern Rivers
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of
these are expected to be severe bringing large hailstones, damaging winds
and very heavy rainfall.
The STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE advises that as storms approach people should:
* put vehicles under cover
* move indoors away from windows
During and after the storm people should:
* beware of fallen trees and power lines
* keep away from creeks and drains as you may be swept away
The RTA recommends motorists switch their lights & wipers on & slow down in
the wet.
If your house is damaged contact the State Emergency Service on 132 500 for
emergency assistance. Do not use the telephone during the storm.
TV CRAWL: Severe Thunderstorm Advice current for the Northern Rivers
weather forecast district.
MEDIA PLEASE NOTE: This Advice message is valid until 6pm. The Bureau and
SES would appreciate it being broadcast regularly until this time.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "David Croan"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: STA [was WEATHER: NSW coastline]
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 14:46:59 +1000
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Good call Harald. I'm sure the north coast folk will have a blast.
_____________________________________________
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1426 on Tuesday the 3rd of July 2001
This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
Northern Rivers
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of
these are expected to be severe bringing large hailstones, damaging winds
and very heavy rainfall.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 14:54:33 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Yes I have a cell right on me now just east of Lismore (2.55pm). Very large
drops - hoping for some hail !
Michael
At 14:37 03/07/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>IDW16N00
>
>TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
>
>SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
>Issued at 1426 on Tuesday the 3rd of July 2001
>
>This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
>
>Northern Rivers
>
>Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of
>these are expected to be severe bringing large hailstones, damaging winds
>and very heavy rainfall.
>
>The STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE advises that as storms approach people should:
> * put vehicles under cover
> * move indoors away from windows
>
>During and after the storm people should:
> * beware of fallen trees and power lines
> * keep away from creeks and drains as you may be swept away
>
>The RTA recommends motorists switch their lights & wipers on & slow down in
>the wet.
>
>If your house is damaged contact the State Emergency Service on 132 500 for
>emergency assistance. Do not use the telephone during the storm.
>
>TV CRAWL: Severe Thunderstorm Advice current for the Northern Rivers
>weather forecast district.
>
>MEDIA PLEASE NOTE: This Advice message is valid until 6pm. The Bureau and
>SES would appreciate it being broadcast regularly until this time.
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
=============================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
McLeans Ridges http://australiasevereweather.com/
NE NSW Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
ASWA Secretary http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
=============================================================
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Dean McWhinney"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 15:30:10 +1000
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HEHE good luck hope you get it :)
unfortunately nothing for syd yet no big cbs like yesterday but heres hoping
:)
Yes I have a cell right on me now just east of Lismore (2.55pm). Very
large drops - hoping for some hail !
Michael
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Country Energy - Storm Info
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5 September 22, 2000
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 16:17:56 +1000
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HI all..
Im sure there are alot of people in the North of the state now realise that
North Power is now Country Energy.. From 1st July Advance Energy, North
Power and Great Southern started trading as Country Energy, Slowly but
surely we will all have systems information into one system..
I will have now have direct contact with old North Power Call Centre in
Port Mac and GSE Call Centre at Queanbeyan for any storm reports needed.
Any info required please email me at the above address.. This will change
in near future..
Thanks
David Carroll
Bathurst.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Tweed Heads /Kingscliff storm
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5 September 22, 2000
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 16:36:01 +1000
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on Domino/Advance(Release 5.0.7 |March 21, 2001) at 03/07/2001
04:36:00
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HI all..
Report from Port Mac Call Centre, ligjhtning hit power lines at
Kingscliff.. lines brought down.. minor outage..
Dave
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From: "Adam Troy Cole"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: hail in Warwick
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 16:58:38 +1000
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Hail in Warwick Starting aprox 3pm, with nice strong outflow winds before
arriving. Unexpected but really nice, still raining on and off at 5pm.
Adam
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Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 16:45:28 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath
Subject: aus-wx: OFF TOPIC: PC to PC file transfer
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Sorry for this hugely off topic post.
Does anyone know of utilities that enable direct file transfers between two
PCs via a parallel cable or whatever?
I huge upgraded my PC and have to get several Gigs of data onto the new one
so I can create CDs of all the weather data saved. The old PC has serial
and parallel ports. DOS programs are fine. I just need something that will
send directories of data from one PC to the other via a cable. I do not
have network cards.
Please email me privately:
mbath at ozemail.com.au
thanks
=============================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
McLeans Ridges http://australiasevereweather.com/
NE NSW Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
ASWA Secretary http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
=============================================================
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "michael king"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow page up finally
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 17:38:42 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jul 2001 07:38:42.0861 (UTC) FILETIME=[2F1D4DD0:01C10393]
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Phil
I wasn't in SA then, but I distinctly remember Bendigo, where I lived at the time, getting snow (my first sight of the stuff) one very cold Sunday in July '69. It was my sister's first holy communion day, and we have photos of her in her quasi little girl's wedding outfit (the catholic church dresses female communicants in strange gear!) on the front lawn, as the white stuff floated gently down.
Michael
>From: Phil Bagust
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow page up finally
>Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 12:10:59 +0930
>
>Hi all
>
>Trying to plug the SDS gap a little. Finally got up some info re the July
>1969 cold outbreak in the Mid north of SA. The 'Advertiser' survivied
>because I was the week of the first Moon landing and my parents kept the
>papers!
>
>As usual, any stories or memories....
>
>http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2/SnowWX.html
>
>Phil
>
>
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 17:53:25 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Sel Kerans
Subject: aus-wx: Lovely Winter Storm over SE Qld
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello all,
Just about to be hit here - lucky day with a great looking winter storm - a
long, long shelf cloud with layering and some anvil over the top coming up
from the south east from Moreton Bay toward Caboolture and Elimbah, where I
am....
Lots of lightning behind it and thunder coming up now...
Too dark for a good photo...
:-/
Better go now.
Sel Kerans
QLD
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sel Kerans
Coordinator \|/ &&&&&
Project Atmosphere Australia On-line -0- .--_|\ "/"
WWW: http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa /|\ / \ \
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EQ: sel.kerans at qed.qld.gov.au v
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Angell"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: TDU 2001
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 01:45:15 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2462.0000
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HI all
Im just wondering when TDU 2001 is on this year as
i would like to "tag along" with some of you (if possible) and i will need to
get My annual leave and money sorted out pretty soon.
Cheers.
Simon Angell
Canberra ACT
0*c presently
p.s how much would it cost
approximatley???
From: "Les Crossan"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFF TOPIC: PC to PC file transfer
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 08:10:17 +0100
Organization: Chaotic
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Norton Ghost will transfer drive contents down a parallel cable, presumably
they're FAT32 so Interlnk won't work (but Laplink might)
Might be better to slave one of the disks and copy it that way if there's
gigs of data.
Les
Les Crossan and Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear 55N 01-30W
les.crossan at virgin.net
www.uksevereweather.org.uk
Wallsend StormCam: www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Bath"
To:
Sent: Tuesday, July 03, 2001 7:45 AM
Subject: aus-wx: OFF TOPIC: PC to PC file transfer
> Hi all,
>
> Sorry for this hugely off topic post.
>
> Does anyone know of utilities that enable direct file transfers between
two
> PCs via a parallel cable or whatever?
>
> I huge upgraded my PC and have to get several Gigs of data onto the new
one
> so I can create CDs of all the weather data saved. The old PC has serial
> and parallel ports. DOS programs are fine. I just need something that will
> send directories of data from one PC to the other via a cable. I do not
> have network cards.
>
> Please email me privately:
> mbath at ozemail.com.au
>
> thanks
>
>
> =============================================================
> Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> McLeans Ridges http://australiasevereweather.com/
> NE NSW Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
> ASWA Secretary http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> =============================================================
>
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From: "Laurier Williams"
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com"
Subject: aus-wx: Cold, wet outbreak for Thurs/Fri?
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 13:21:21 +1000
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The EC now agrees with GASP and MRF in predicting a moderately cold outbreak
over Vic and NSW for late Thursday or Friday. The circumstances, however,
are unusual, and there's a chance of snow along the eastern parts of the
Great Divide in NSW, and possibly widespread in Victoria.
All three models are consistent in predicting a low to form south of New
Caledonia and east of Brisbane during Wednesday, then to move steadily SW to
eastern Bass Strait by late Friday before shifting away to the E or SE.
Meantime, a high in the Bight ridging SE will drag colder air up from around
50S over the southeast. Differences in treatment start to appear here.
EC has a substantial cold pool with central thickness of 534 over about
Young at 12z Thursday, then washes out to a broad upper trough lying from
Adelaide to Brisbane around 542 by 12z Friday. EC drops the surface low to
~990hPa just east of Gabo Island 12z Friday, then moves it slowly east and
deepening on Sat keeping winds mostly SW over Vic and NSW.
GASP develops 2 low centres by Thursday night, one south of Lord Howe
Island, and another south of Adelaide, which have merged into a 994 low in
eastern Bass Strait by Friday night. Consequently, the colder air tracks
farther west and north, with a central thickness of 532 over Adelaide on
Thursday night and 531 over the western Northern Tablelands of NSW by Friday
night. Winds over Vic and NSW are mostly westerly, but GASP has 10 to 40mm
of precip over eastern Vic and the NSW Southern Tablelands for the 48 hours
to Sat night, and 5 to 15 up into the Central Tablelands. Snow hounds will
be cheering on the local model!
MRF keeps the low farther east and shallower, but still has Victoria and
much of southern and central NSW sub-540 thickness by Friday morning. Precip
totals are pretty light, however, in a SW flow. NOGAPS is similar, but
doesn't develop a low centre; rather has a deep trough extending down the
NSW coast at this time, and, like MRF, little precip.
Significantly, none of the models has any SW or S jet development during the
period, so it won't be a true polar outbreak as air will mostly be arriving
from around 50S. However, the potential for interaction between the ECL and
colder air at last gives us something interesting to watch.
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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From: "Laurier Williams"
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com"
Subject: aus-wx: Reduction in availability of GMS-5 satellite imagery
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 12:22:57 +1000
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Some bad news for southern ocean watchers -- especially those looking for
cold outbreaks surging up from the south. From this Wednesday, GMS-5 will be
reducing its imagery availability to cover only as far south as 49 degrees
S, while the number of transmissions daily will be nearly halved. This
situation is only likely to be improved with the launch of MTSAT-1R early in
2003. The full text of an explanation issued by Tarini Casinader of the
Bureau follows.
Laurier
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHANGES TO AVAILABILITY OF GMS-5 SATELLITE IMAGERY
Explanation of the situation
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has announced that from 4 July 2001
there will be a reduction in the satellite imagery available from its
Geostationary Meteorological Satellite GMS-5. The changes will comprise:
1) A reduction in the geographical extent of the satellite pictures, which
will now only extend as far south as latitude 49 South; and
2) A reduction in the number of satellite pictures received each day, from
the current 28 pictures a day to 16, so that previously hourly images will
now be at intervals of about two hours.
The reason for this reduction is that GMS-5, which is the fifth in the GMS
series operated by JMA, is now well beyond its design life. GMS-5 was due
to be replaced by the Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) in late
1999 but unfortunately MTSAT was lost due to a launch vehicle failure.
Since that time the JMA has been taking steps to ensure GMS-5 observations
continue up to the launch of MTSAT-1R in early 2003. Reducing the extent
and number of pictures it scans should significantly extend the usable life
of the satellite.
Impact on Bureau products and services
Australia has been extremely fortunate to have the benefits of satellite
imagery from Japan’s weather satellite program for over two decades. The
program is a key part of the Global Observing System of the World
Meteorological Organization. GMS cloud images have been of vital importance
to the operations of national meteorological services in the Asia-Pacific
region.
The reduced satellite imagery will affect both the Bureau’s forecasting and
warning services and its data access services.
Impact on forecasting and warning services
Satellite pictures are used in several ways in routine weather forecasting
and warning. Forecasters are able to interpret the pattern of clouds in the
satellite pictures to get better information on such features as the
position of fronts, low pressure systems and tropical cyclones, and the type
of rainfall that might be produced in some areas. The satellite images are
also used to derive information for high up in the atmosphere winds and
temperatures for example which are then fed into computer models
(numerical weather prediction models or NWP models) which simulate the
evolution of the atmosphere over a number of days ahead; forecasters use
these as guidance in deriving their forecasts of weather. Satellite imagery
is therefore an extremely important tool for weather forecasting services.
There is almost certain to be some impact on the quality of forecasting
services due to the reduction in availability of satellite data. This will
be relatively small for the current reduction in coverage and frequency, but
if the satellite were to fail completely, the impact would be much more
significant. It is important to remember however that many other types of
data are also used in weather forecasting and warning services, so the
latter are by no means entirely dependent on satellite-derived information.
The aspects of services likely to be affected most are the positioning of
tropical cyclones well off the coast and the timing of summertime cool
changes in southern Australia. In addition the daily solar radiation service
will be disrupted.
Impact on data access services
Some of the Bureau’s data access services will also be affected. Any
service providing hourly frequency of pictures will now be updated less
frequently, and any service currently including “full disk” pictures which
show the whole earth hemisphere, will show a black area south of 49S with no
information.
Alternative arrangements
JMA has endeavoured to minimise the impact of the reduced observations on
forecasting and warning by ensuring that they cluster images around the
times in a day when input to computer models is most important. In
addition, in the case of further reductions in GMS5 data, the Bureau is
examining “substitute” satellite images produced by other satellites
including the United States’ NOAA polar orbiting satellites, and other
geostationary satellites to the east of Australian longitudes.
The substitute satellite pictures will be used to supplement the Bureau’s
forecasting and warning and data access services to the extent possible if
GMS fails. These images will not be as frequent or as convenient as those
from GMS-5, which is a geostationary satellite (effectively stationary above
the equator) located in Australian longitudes, and so showed the full disk
of the earth with Australia very close to the centre of the picture.
However, they can be used quite effectively in the forecast process.
For further enquiries on this subject please contact your nearest Bureau
Regional Office in the first instance.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 18:21:25 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: aus-wx: Total rainfall for Schofields.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
The rainfall at Schofields has totalled 2.8mm for the month of June.
Certainly the driest June I have recorded since my records began in 1987.
We'll see what July holds.
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 18:19:20 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney - Tonight (Monday)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Don,
This morning I left having forgotten to check the rain gauge...ie it was
that dry. Then as I went through Schofields - about 400m straight distance,
the road was wet and continued wet all the way to Richmond Road. Very
localised. When the gauge was checked, it only had rain 0.2mm. Now I would
say there must have been more further west since the road was wet and some
water had dripped off the edge of the road - lets say at least 1mm. Typical...
I must say that I was so carried away that I did not take notice of the
weather situation last night and was surprised by your e-mail about the
rain in the far western parts. Occasionally, I do miss a beat....
Jimmy Deguara
At 09:08 PM 2/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi all,
>Does any one those living in the Greater Western parts of Sydney got any
>comments on anything tonight. I note that Penrith AWS had 30 mm between 8
>and 10 pm and 6 mm at Richmond - Radar didn't look that heavy. What was it?
>
>Don W
>
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussie"
To: "weather list"
Subject: aus-wx: Off topic police strike?
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 18:06:42 +1000
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No weather happening here so a bit of off topic (sick) humour. The Victoria
police are thinking about industrial disputes to get their pay claim
through. Who would we call on if they decided to riot? :-))
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 19:07:04 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD Hailstorms
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Hi all!
Some updrafts developed during the day, the inversion at 500mb possibly
worked to our advantage not letting too much convection occuring, around
2-3pm there was a sudden destablisation and a line of storms formed to
the SW, I was at work and headed out. I got caught up in a nice
hailstorm near Logan, with torrential rain and small hail with some
strong winds! Several nice flangs, the type where you have a big flash
and you go "Whoa! Where was ****CRACKBANNNNGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!*" Several
nice CGs in view, as well as a little lightning show to the NE in the
evening after the line of storms moved on - was a bit of fun today
chasing in between work!
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: dencot1 at aol.com
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 05:53:48 EDT
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFF TOPIC: PC to PC file transfer
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Windows 98 Has a pretty easy utility called direct cable connection. I havent
used it myself so you might heve to look in windows help.
Evan Cottle
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Tichborne"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #1062
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 22:21:14 +1200
Organization: Private
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> Subject: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?
There's a really icy spell over NZ at the moment - not a polar southerly
blast, but a big fat anticyclone resulting in mean frosts. (the frosts even
look like dustings of snow on some of the shaded hillsides on Banks
Peninsula, near Christchurch!) The lowest temperature (air I presume) I've
heard of has been - 12 C at Hanmer in inland North Canterbury yesterday.
Even Auckland is getting frosts.
BTW June was one of the warmest on record in the lower South Island (after
the freeze of late May, plus a further brief snowy spell in early/ mid
June), yet some northern areas were colder than average. This was due to
more highs (and consequently frosty nights) in the north, and
northwesterlies in the south.
Ben
Christchurch ( abot 2 C and falling, despite being partly cloudy)
NZ
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: NE NSW multicell
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 15:09:40 +1000
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This multicell off the northern coast of NSW appears to have split & one
section appears to be propagating NW - shows interesting similarity to
the Sydney hailstorm (see
http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm/radar/14-04-99.gif )..... also the
cell to the SW of Grafton has been severe in parts for the past 40
minutes.......oh to be in the NE NSW area atm.......
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne weather
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 18:35:08 +1000
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My max temp today got to 9.7C & the strongest(?) wind gust was 6kmh!!!!!
No wonder the fog/smog hung around all day.
Below is an image of Queenscliff taken from the Point Lonsdale
lighthouse.......can you find Queenscliff? Actually - can you find where
the sea ends and the air begins?
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/July2001/pltoq.jpg
Jane
(Dave: please note - sent at 1834AEST)
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: NE NSW!!
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 18:18:27 +1000
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This multicell off the northern coast of NSW appears to have split & one
section appears to be propagating NW - shows interesting similarity to
the Sydney hailstorm (see
http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm/radar/14-04-99.gif )..... also the
cell to the SW of Grafton has been severe in parts for the past 40
minutes.......oh to be in the NE NSW area atm.......
Jane
(originally sent 1509, next sent 1818)
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Greg Curtis"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane storms 3 July 2001
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 21:47:23 +1000
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Hello everybody.
Couple of photos of those storms that passed through Brisbane late this
afternoon.
All photos taken from Birdwood Tce Rainworth looking over the City to the
east at about 4:45 pm.
http://www.ecn.net.au/~curtisg/200107031.jpg
http://www.ecn.net.au/~curtisg/200107032.jpg
http://www.ecn.net.au/~curtisg/200107033.jpg
Regards
Greg Curtis
Brisbane
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From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne weather
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 21:37:09 +1000
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My max temp today got to 9.7C & the strongest(?) wind gust was 6kmh!!!!!
No wonder the fog/smog hung around all day.
Below is an image of Queenscliff taken from the Point Lonsdale
lighthouse.......can you find Queenscliff? Actually - can you find where
the sea ends and the air begins?
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/July2001/pltoq.jpg
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 23:19:33 +1000
From: Tony & Damian
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Subject: aus-wx: Friday outlook for Katoomba
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The weather channels outlook for friday for Orange is 5 degrees but for
Katoomba it is 16 degrees. Do you think this is a mistake or is it
likely to reach 16 in Katoomba but only 5 in Orange??
I'm confused?
Damian
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mini-chase yesterday (1/7/01)
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 22:27:31 +1000
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Pics of my "mini-chase" can be found at
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/01_07_01.htm
and also pics from June (great shot of a sunset with contrails here)
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/14a_06_01.htm
These & more can be found on
'Images of Victorian weather - a visual summary"
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/vicwx.htm
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 22:30:35 +1000
From: Andrew Miskelly
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Friday outlook for Katoomba
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There's no way it will be 16 in Katoomba on Friday, even if the
approaching system does bomb out. I reckon it would be better
interpreted as 6.
Andrew.
Tony & Damian wrote:
>
> The weather channels outlook for friday for Orange is 5 degrees but for
> Katoomba it is 16 degrees. Do you think this is a mistake or is it
> likely to reach 16 in Katoomba but only 5 in Orange??
> I'm confused?
>
> Damian
>
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Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 23:07:49 +1000
From: Peter Creswick
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: radar?
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The generally accepted range of interest is from around -40dBZ up
through -20dBZ in non precipitating clouds, -20dBZ to about 10dBZ for
clear air and PBL density discontinuity detection (hydrometeors are
not essential), 10dBZ to about 60dBZ for rain, and 60dBZ to 70dBZ plus
for hail.
Since the cut-off is apparently a rather high 10dBZ or so, it would
tend to confirm my original thoughts.
It would be interesting to have the radar system specs, so as one
could do some calculations.
PC
Harald Richter wrote:
>
> Uhh, interesting and potentially volatile discussion
> developing here. Let me throw in some info that connects the
> BOM rain rate (RR) to the reflectivity (dBZ). I did these calculations as I have
> had difficulties in interpreting the rain rates, similar to Peter.
>
> RR: <0.3 0.3-2 2-10 10-20 20-40 40-100 >100
> dBZ: <14.6 14.6-27.8 27.8-39.0 39.0-43.8 43.8-48.6 48.6-55.0 >55.0
> black dkblue lgtblue yellow green pink red
>
> This table assumes the underlying relationship
>
> Z = 200*RR^1.6
>
> where Z is the radar reflectivity factor, a function of the reflector
> particle diameter (to the _sixth_ power) and the particle density
> integrated over a radar sampling volume.
> The more common "reflectivity" is the scaled reflectivity factor
>
> dBZ = 10 * log(Z)
>
> (log to the base of 10).
>
> It's interesting to note that the common BOM radar display shows
> no returns below 14.6 dBZ precluding the detection of clear air boundaries
> (important for convective initiation) and (I am guessing) some light rain areas.
>
>
> > No argument with the geographic or demographic factors as such, but
> > they are not relevant either. The comment concerned the output from
> > existing radar. It's a question of excessively "dumbing down" the
> > information available from the radar that cost a heap of our hard
> > earned tax dollars.
> > Rain rate displays are OK as far as they go, but
> > they are the result of heavily filtered and processed data, you could
> > say, excessively so.
>
> Might be an issue of what is most suitable for "the public" [sic]. Reflectivities
> are "truer" information, while "rain rates" are more commonly understood.
> I am not sure how exactly the raw power returns are processed before they
> end up as rain rates on the web. But the conversion from dBZ to RR seems
> to be a simple step by itself.
>
> > As David would well know, rain rate alone is not
> > the issue. Not all storms precipitate, and besides, storm structure,
> > winds etc are as big, if not a bigger issue, than rain anyway. Anyone
> > who knows how radar works can glean a lot from the raw dbZ output.
>
> Radars need reflectors to see - storm structures and winds are invisible
> to a radar without dielectric hydrometeors (unfortunately!).
> Storm structure is best observed with a camcorder from under the updraught base :)
>
> > David Jones wrote:
> > >
> > > >From: Peter Creswick
> > > >Subject: aus-wx: Radar
> > > >
> > > >South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all. Pitty ours isn't as
> > > >good.
> > >
> > > err? In what way are these better than the excellent products avaliable
> > > locally from the BOM network (eg www.bom.gov.au , www.weatherzone.com.au
> > > etc.? ) Besides, when your country is about the size of Victoria, and double
> > > the population of Australia monitoring is just a tad easier.
>
> It's the old song. The preferred 10 cm Doppler radar coverage of all of Australia
> is too expensive to be reality given far less than 20 million tax payers and
> given that radar acquisition is not the nation's top priority in Canberra (or Melbourne).
> Instead we have (primarily) a coastal fringe of 5 cm coverage. That's not too bad,
> given the circumstances.
>
> --------------------------------
> Harald Richter
> BMRC
> PO Box 1289K
> Melbourne VIC 3001
> Australia
> ph: +61 3 9669 4501
> fax: +61 3 9669 4660
> email: h.richter at bom.gov.au
> url: soon(ish)
> --------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane storms 3 July 2001
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 23:45:03 +1000
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Hi Greg,
Great shots & nice to see what was really going on. At Sumner I was looking
NE at the storm, from a somewhat different angle and distance to you. My
video pics show what appears at one stage to be a huge wedge tornado (even
in the right location), but in fact as your photo shows, it was just scud &
a bit of shelf formation.
The "wedge":
www.pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/Stm030701a.jpg
3 frames of lowerings:
www.pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/Stm030701b.jpg
Also a CG earlier near Logan:
www.pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/Stm030701.jpg
John.
>snip
Hello everybody.
Couple of photos of those storms that passed through Brisbane late this
afternoon.
All photos taken from Birdwood Tce Rainworth looking over the City to the
east at about 4:45 pm.
http://www.ecn.net.au/~curtisg/200107031.jpg
http://www.ecn.net.au/~curtisg/200107032.jpg
http://www.ecn.net.au/~curtisg/200107033.jpg
Regards
Greg Curtis
Brisbane
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula"
To:
Subject: Re: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 11:26:33 -0700
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Hi Winter Weather Watchers,
I think the chance of some seriously heavy *rain* is very likely but only in
the inital stages. Climatoligically, this is a really good time for snow and
bombs so I think whatever the models are saying is maybe a bit biased - due
to obs or model error? Who knows but i'm going with climo on this and saying
it will initially bring some rain and then heavy, heavy snow. However, there
is some indiciation of this too, the models over the last two days are now
increasing the penetration of the initial cold air from the front currently
entering the bight and systems like this typical place their coldest air
(pot temp) just above the surface extending verticaly, so thickness values
of 540 would also include the lower level warmth. If NOGAPS comes through,
the central mountains will be hit real hard.
The movement of the low really is the big issue, as Laurier pointed out, the
models differ on placment, intensification and propagation. I hope for all
you back at home and my boarding buddies that this comes through to give the
season a real boost! Though i can't look at too many oz charts, it's a chase
day in E Wyo :)
Cheers, Lyle
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From: "Ben Quinn"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Straddy Waterspout
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 09:23:15 +1000
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Hi all
I just got a copy of the Straddy waterspout (although going from previous
emails to this list it looks a bit too big to be a waterspout??) footage
that was on the news a few weeks ago and WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! it is amazing. I
don't have a capture card so i've just taken a digi cam shot for now - the
quality of this shot is really ordinary, but the footage is very very
good... should get some great captures from it
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/spout.jpg
The footage goes for around 8 minutes and shows it from development to
dissipation (some awesome twists in it as it was roping out!). With any
luck i'll have some captures and movies on the net in a few days
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Going off in the UK...
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 23:30:30 +0100
Organization: Chaotic
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Everyone in storm starved Oz -
It's all going off here:
Les
From: "Ben Quinn"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane storms 3 July 2001
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 09:47:30 +1000
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Hi all
I managed to get a few shots of this activity as well
Around 4:30pm looking south(ish) towards Brisbane
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/yepyep.jpg
And as i drove up to it a grunty shelf cloud came into view
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/guster1.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/guster2.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/guster2.jpg
Also a MPEG pan (only 500k or so) of a storm to it's WNW and a very nice
roll cloud that developed as the storm above gusted out
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/pan.mpg
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge"
To:
Sent: Tuesday, July 03, 2001 11:45 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane storms 3 July 2001
> Hi Greg,
>
> Great shots & nice to see what was really going on. At Sumner I was
looking
> NE at the storm, from a somewhat different angle and distance to you. My
> video pics show what appears at one stage to be a huge wedge tornado (even
> in the right location), but in fact as your photo shows, it was just scud
&
> a bit of shelf formation.
>
> The "wedge":
>
> www.pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/Stm030701a.jpg
>
> 3 frames of lowerings:
>
> www.pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/Stm030701b.jpg
>
> Also a CG earlier near Logan:
>
> www.pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/Stm030701.jpg
>
> John.
> >snip
>
>
> Hello everybody.
>
> Couple of photos of those storms that passed through Brisbane late this
> afternoon.
>
> All photos taken from Birdwood Tce Rainworth looking over the City to the
> east at about 4:45 pm.
>
> http://www.ecn.net.au/~curtisg/200107031.jpg
>
> http://www.ecn.net.au/~curtisg/200107032.jpg
>
> http://www.ecn.net.au/~curtisg/200107033.jpg
>
> Regards
>
> Greg Curtis
> Brisbane
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Cloudy top end.
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 10:43:00 +1000
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Hi all tropos!
The top end of the NT is showing yet another spell of cloudy conditions
under the weak baroclinic development in that region, this is the second
cloudy spell in just on two weeks not bad for this time of the year even
producing a few spots of light rain. regards Clyve H.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 04 Jul 2001 08:48:50 +0800
From: "Phil Smith"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: The calm before the storm
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The last rain bands of Typhoon Durian swept across us yesterday. I could
hardly stay on my feet due to the winds as I walked up to the doctor's
office. And the rain was almost solid. Then in the afternoon it was
clear sunny skies.
And this morning it is clear sunny skies with the river looking like a
mirror. What's wrong with that? Well, it's summertime here and during
the summer clear skies mean only one thing ... there's an immense storm
on the way!
The satellite pics show Typhoon Utor with a cloud diameter of 2000 Kms
headed exactly in this direction. The nearest cloud bands have already
crosed the Philippines and Taiwan, so I guess our sunny skies will
disappear by tonight. I will be surprised if we don't get a number 8
typhoon signal out of this one. (Number 8 closes everything down and
everyone is confined to their homes) We may even get signals 9 or 10
(increasing gales or full hurricane) as well.
I have gathered a lot of useful links for following it on
http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
and if my site gets bombed out by the storm it will be mirrored on Carl's
site.
Looks like an exciting few days coming up.
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Laurier Williams"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Cloudy top end.
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 11:10:56 +1000
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Clyve wrote:
> Hi all tropos!
> The top end of the NT is showing yet another spell of cloudy conditions
> under the weak baroclinic development in that region, this is the second
> cloudy spell in just on two weeks not bad for this time of the year even
> producing a few spots of light rain. regards Clyve H.
Few spots!?
Gove AP had 14mm to 9am Monday and 45 to 9am Tuesday. Nabalco Mine had 17
and 48.5 respectively, making them the wettest places on the continent.
Gove's July monthly average is 20.2mm, and its highest 24-hour and monthly
July falls in 25 years computer record are 46.6 and 67.8 respectively. So,
with 59mm in the first 3 days of the month, Gove is within 9mm of a record.
Laurier
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 16:30:14 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The calm before the storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All.
>The last rain bands of Typhoon Durian swept across us yesterday. I could
>hardly stay on my feet due to the winds as I walked up to the doctor's
>office. And the rain was almost solid. Then in the afternoon it was
>clear sunny skies.
>And this morning it is clear sunny skies with the river looking like a
>mirror. What's wrong with that? Well, it's summertime here and during
>the summer clear skies mean only one thing ... there's an immense storm
>on the way!
>The satellite pics show Typhoon Utor with a cloud diameter of 2000 Kms
>headed exactly in this direction. The nearest cloud bands have already
>crosed the Philippines and Taiwan, so I guess our sunny skies will
>disappear by tonight. I will be surprised if we don't get a number 8
>typhoon signal out of this one. (Number 8 closes everything down and
>everyone is confined to their homes) We may even get signals 9 or 10
>(increasing gales or full hurricane) as well.
>I have gathered a lot of useful links for following it on
>http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
>and if my site gets bombed out by the storm it will be mirrored on Carl's
>site.
>Looks like an exciting few days coming up.
>
>Phil
><><
If it does hit HK, Phil's site may well become unavailable, and even if it
comes close to HK web traffic is likely to slow to a crawl judging from
past typhoons.
The URL mirroring the links to Typhoon Utor info that Phil referred to
above is http://users.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm for those who may
not already know.
Looks like heavy rains from this monster cyclone are going to cause serious
problems from mudflows for those living near the Mayon volcano that erupted
recently.
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast.
Queensland.
Australia.
email: carls at ace-net.com.au
internet: http://users.ace-net.com.au/~carls/
For links to current Tropical Cyclone information :
http://users.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
For convenient Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps :
http://users.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Friday outlook for Blue Mountains
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 17:33:09 +1000
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Hi all,
The BOM has -2C to 9C for Orange on Friday with showers. Yet, +48 LAPS has
536 thickness over our area at that time and a number of other models are
similar. Did they mean to put 6C? Even today we only got 9.5C at my place, I
can't imagine it getting to 9C on Friday in Orange or here. I remember this
happening last year in late June with one of our snowfalls. The BOM had
something like a max of 8 for us on that day. It did actually briefly get to
4C that day but was 0C by 8am and never got above 2C all day. I'm sometimes
intrigued as to how they come up with these temps. Not being critical, just
trying to understand the logic.
Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Straddy Waterspout
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 17:50:44 +1000
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Ben
Well done for getting the footage. The photo looks good, can't wait to see
the film.
Is it a Moreton Bay spout or an ocean spout. Or is it possibly a land based
tornado on Straddie ???
I've always thought Moreton Bay is a potential waterspout hotspot (esp in
Winter/Spring when cold air rushes over warm waters). Just like yesterday
for example.
Regards
Simon
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ben Quinn"
To:
Sent: Wednesday, July 04, 2001 9:23 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Straddy Waterspout
> Hi all
>
> I just got a copy of the Straddy waterspout (although going from previous
> emails to this list it looks a bit too big to be a waterspout??) footage
> that was on the news a few weeks ago and WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! it is amazing.
I
> don't have a capture card so i've just taken a digi cam shot for now - the
> quality of this shot is really ordinary, but the footage is very very
> good... should get some great captures from it
>
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/spout.jpg
>
> The footage goes for around 8 minutes and shows it from development to
> dissipation (some awesome twists in it as it was roping out!). With any
> luck i'll have some captures and movies on the net in a few days
>
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussie"
To: "weather list"
Subject: aus-wx: Here it comes
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 18:09:34 +1000
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SWA issued for SA at 4.10pm. It's on its way :-)
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Peter Matters"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Here it comes
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 18:27:39 +1000
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Hi all,
If a significant change is on the way for Broadford, the Currawongs
give characteristic "wolf whistle" calls up to 48 hrs before. They seem to
have vanished!!!!!!!!!!! As I write this email, my wife has just informed
me she heard the whistles this arvo Any ideas???
Cheers Peter
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Bussie
Sent: Wednesday, 4 July 2001 18:10
To: weather list
Subject: aus-wx: Here it comes
SWA issued for SA at 4.10pm. It's on its way :-)
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
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From: "Laurier Williams"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Here it comes (from two directions!)
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 18:53:53 +1000
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Here it comes from two directions!
The troughs moving through SA at present look impressive on the radar, and
have produced gusts to 85km/h at Neptune Is, 79 at Minnipa and Wudinna, and
68 at Ceduna in the past few hours.
However, the low in the northern Tasman has given Norfolk Island a wild day,
with the wind averaging between 50 and 70km/h all day, and a peak gust of
116km/h at 02.30UTC (13.30 local time?) when the wind was averaging 79km/h.
The low has just passed the island with a central pressure of 996, and is
the low the models are suggesting will head southwest toward Bass Strait,
though it's moving SSE at the moment. It gave the island's airport 36mm to
9am yesterday, 45 to 9 this morning and a further 44 to 6 tonight.
Laurier
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Peter Matters
> Sent: Wednesday, 04 July, 2001 6:28 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Here it comes
>
>
> Hi all,
> If a significant change is on the way for Broadford, the Currawongs
> give characteristic "wolf whistle" calls up to 48 hrs before. They seem to
> have vanished!!!!!!!!!!! As I write this email, my wife has just informed
> me she heard the whistles this arvo Any ideas???
> Cheers Peter
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Bussie
> Sent: Wednesday, 4 July 2001 18:10
> To: weather list
> Subject: aus-wx: Here it comes
>
>
> SWA issued for SA at 4.10pm. It's on its way :-)
> Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
>
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From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Friday outlook for Blue Mountains
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 20:07:53 +1000
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I have stayed out debating the exciting prospect of this low as simply I
can't see the low pressure drifting from New Caledonia to Bass strait. The
models have had several stabs at lows drifting SW or W this year and all
have stalled and headed east. I admit the setup is totally different,
however I am going with gut feeling and ignoring models.
My gut feeling is this event will flop big time.
Having said that the chances have improved dramatically.
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Sent: Wednesday, 4 July 2001 17:33
Subject: aus-wx: Friday outlook for Blue Mountains
> Hi all,
>
> The BOM has -2C to 9C for Orange on Friday with showers. Yet, +48 LAPS has
> 536 thickness over our area at that time and a number of other models are
> similar. Did they mean to put 6C? Even today we only got 9.5C at my place,
I
> can't imagine it getting to 9C on Friday in Orange or here. I remember
this
> happening last year in late June with one of our snowfalls. The BOM had
> something like a max of 8 for us on that day. It did actually briefly get
to
> 4C that day but was 0C by 8am and never got above 2C all day. I'm
sometimes
> intrigued as to how they come up with these temps. Not being critical,
just
> trying to understand the logic.
>
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: violin at lisp.com.au
> Blackheath Weather:
> http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 20:31:32 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Here it comes
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>SWA issued for SA at 4.10pm. It's on its way :-)
>Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
Raining steadily now (8.00pm CST) in Adelaide. Another trough/front coming
through at night!!! Anyway - if any cold air action develops I'll be down
at the beach first thing tomorrow morning...
Phil
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Straddy Waterspout
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 21:19:40 +1000
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Hi Simon
At times in the footage you can see quite a bit of white spray around the
base of the spout, so it was most definately over water. I'm not sure if it
was in Moreton bay or not, i'll find out though
I've uploaded a couple more digi shots of the footage
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/spout2.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/spout3.jpg
Those black lines aren't in the footage, they're just in the digi shots for
some reason
Check out the S bend in the second one!
----- Original Message -----
From: "Simon Clarke"
To:
Sent: Wednesday, July 04, 2001 5:50 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Straddy Waterspout
> Ben
>
> Well done for getting the footage. The photo looks good, can't wait to see
> the film.
>
> Is it a Moreton Bay spout or an ocean spout. Or is it possibly a land
based
> tornado on Straddie ???
>
> I've always thought Moreton Bay is a potential waterspout hotspot (esp in
> Winter/Spring when cold air rushes over warm waters). Just like yesterday
> for example.
>
> Regards
> Simon
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ben Quinn"
> To:
> Sent: Wednesday, July 04, 2001 9:23 AM
> Subject: aus-wx: Straddy Waterspout
>
>
> > Hi all
> >
> > I just got a copy of the Straddy waterspout (although going from
previous
> > emails to this list it looks a bit too big to be a waterspout??) footage
> > that was on the news a few weeks ago and WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! it is
amazing.
> I
> > don't have a capture card so i've just taken a digi cam shot for now -
the
> > quality of this shot is really ordinary, but the footage is very very
> > good... should get some great captures from it
> >
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/spout.jpg
> >
> > The footage goes for around 8 minutes and shows it from development to
> > dissipation (some awesome twists in it as it was roping out!). With any
> > luck i'll have some captures and movies on the net in a few days
> >
> >
> >
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: Satellite images
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 22:35:00 +1000
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Can someone tell me why the satpics are cut off south of Australia but
not anywhere else in the southern hemisphere????
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/global/stitched/ir/LATEST.jpg
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Satellite images
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 22:54:20 +1000
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ahem...and 30secs after I hit 'Send' i worked out the answer to my own
question - the area that is cut off shows the limits of GMS-5
doesn't it?
Roll on the low to the west.....pleased to see that vectoring from the
JCU satellite loop works a treat - that low is going to land in
western Victoria I think........lightning to the west - the lightning
detector is on!!
ftp://ftp.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausmovie.gif
Jane
> Can someone tell me why the satpics are cut off south of Australia but
> not anywhere else in the southern hemisphere????
>
>
> http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/global/stitched/ir/LATEST.jpg
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 04 Jul 2001 22:57:23 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.77 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Satellite images
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Hi Jane,
This is because of the new GMS-5 restrictions that have come in, which
no longer will do satellite imagery south of Australia. I think the
other areas are covered by different satellites...
AC
Jane ONeill wrote:
>
> Can someone tell me why the satpics are cut off south of Australia but
> not anywhere else in the southern hemisphere????
>
> http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/global/stitched/ir/LATEST.jpg
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 05 Jul 2001 05:41:51 +0800
From: "Phil Smith"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Total rainfall for Schofields. cf HK
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Jimmy, we beat Schofields by 1080.8 mm! Our total here for June was
1083.6 mm, the highest on record.
The summary for this month is at
http://www2.info.gov.hk/hko/wxinfo/pastwx/monthly.htm
and as this was a month for superlatives you have to scroll a long way.
And now we are under Typhoon Utor whose centre is 620 Km ESE of here but
whose winds and rain have already arrived.
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
-----Original Message-----
From: Jimmy Deguara
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 18:21:25 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Total rainfall for Schofields.
> Hi all,
>
> The rainfall at Schofields has totalled 2.8mm for the month of June.
> Certainly the driest June I have recorded since my records began in
> 1987.
> We'll see what July holds.
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2
Date: Thu, 05 Jul 2001 08:23:04 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFF TOPIC: PC to PC file transfer
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
thanks to everyone who replied about this - much appreciated !
MB
At 08:10 03/07/2001 +0100, you wrote:
>Norton Ghost will transfer drive contents down a parallel cable, presumably
>they're FAT32 so Interlnk won't work (but Laplink might)
>
>Might be better to slave one of the disks and copy it that way if there's
>gigs of data.
>
>Les
>Les Crossan and Christine Challen,
>Wallsend, Tyne & Wear 55N 01-30W
>les.crossan at virgin.net
>www.uksevereweather.org.uk
>Wallsend StormCam: www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Michael Bath"
>To:
>Sent: Tuesday, July 03, 2001 7:45 AM
>Subject: aus-wx: OFF TOPIC: PC to PC file transfer
>
>
> > Hi all,
> >
> > Sorry for this hugely off topic post.
> >
> > Does anyone know of utilities that enable direct file transfers between
>two
> > PCs via a parallel cable or whatever?
> >
> > I huge upgraded my PC and have to get several Gigs of data onto the new
>one
> > so I can create CDs of all the weather data saved. The old PC has serial
> > and parallel ports. DOS programs are fine. I just need something that will
> > send directories of data from one PC to the other via a cable. I do not
> > have network cards.
> >
> > Please email me privately:
> > mbath at ozemail.com.au
> >
> > thanks
> >
> >
> > =============================================================
> > Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> > McLeans Ridges http://australiasevereweather.com/
> > NE NSW Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
> > ASWA Secretary http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> > =============================================================
> >
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> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
=============================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
McLeans Ridges http://australiasevereweather.com/
NE NSW Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
ASWA Secretary http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
=============================================================
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)"
Subject: aus-wx: Ever changing models...
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 08:42:07 +1000
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The damn models have done it again with the coming low system for SE
Australia, and decided to change quite considerably from yesterdays runs.
Instead of an intense low developing near central Victoria, with widespread
sub 540 thickness values over the Victorian highlands/NSW (read heavy snow),
they are now spinning up a much warmer low further north and east, to lie
near the Southern NSW coast on Saturday/Sunday. The rather dramatic swings
back and forth in the model predictions over recent days, suggests that much
uncertainty exists in what exactly will happen over the weekend for those in
the SE.... I guess the only safe bet is that some parts of the area will be
subject to heavy rain, while most areas will be subject to strong winds. As
for snow this could make the season, or leave us skiers waiting for the next
system to fire things up......
Cheers,
David.
Dr David Jones
Climate Analysis Section
National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 05 Jul 2001 09:06:00 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Petrol Prices (was) Re: aus-wx: Mini-chase yesterday
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
Slightly off topic, but this may help some people. A group called "Fuel
Watch" post fuel prices up on their site, and they can also email you
the latest fuel prices eacfh morning. Go to:
http://www.fuelwatch.com.au
It's handy as it gives you an idea what fuel prices are like in other
areas of town (subsequently if you have to drive through several
suburbs, you get an idea where the cheapest fuel is).
As far as I know, it only does Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne.
Fuel took a dabble in the high 60's last week, but it's back into the
70's...70.7c/L is the cheapest here at the moment.
AC
Jane ONeill wrote:
>
> "mini-chase"??????
> all 414kms of it.... (thank goodness petrol was <80c a litre)
>
> I'll upload my pics when I manage to get them off the digital cam. I
> ended up further south than Robert while hunting an embedded Cb (nothing
> like winter for getting in some practice) - found it & got melted hail
> in the process, a 10-20 & a temperature of 9.2C, so I was quite
> pleased. Found a couple of good lookouts & SCD met 10 calves - I'm not
> quite sure who was the most bemused... Cadence or the calves......
>
> Not much of a chase report but there'll be some nice pics (structure &
> sunsets) whe I manage to retrieve them
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
> >
> > Hey all
> >
> > Thanks to info from Jane, I managed to go on a little chase out
> Ballarat
> > way yesterday. Here's what I saw:
> >
> > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_07_01/today.html
> > (yes, I saw a webpage :)
> >
> > There was some cumulus congestus around which started to beef up a bit
> > more around sunset. Managed to drive through some small hail as well.
> > In all it's not really that spectacular, but better than nothing, and
> it
> > enabled me to test out my camcorder. The uploaded images are perhaps
> a
> > bit too big as you can see the pixels, but I'll improve that next time
> > 'round.
> >
> > I've also put Melbourne's local radar for yesterday up on the page.
> >
> > I'll be interested to see any snaps Jane took.
> >
> >
> > Cheers
> >
> > --
> >
> > Robert A. Goler
> >
> > Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> > Monash University
> > Clayton, Vic 3800
> > Australia
> >
> > ph. +61 3 9905 4424
> > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
> > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
> >
> > --
> >
> >
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
> --
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan"
To:
Subject: Re: Petrol Prices (was) Re: aus-wx: Mini-chase yesterday
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 23:28:24 +0100
Organization: Chaotic
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> Fuel took a dabble in the high 60's last week, but it's back into the
> 70's...70.7c/L is the cheapest here at the moment.
Wow, thats cheap. Could you ship a tanker load of the stuff over here???
Les
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aus Wx"
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian situation
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 09:25:25 +1000
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Morning all,
I think this aviation forecast for Victoria is worth sharing with all of the
discussion about the models going backwards & forwards....
and in particular note the forecast position of the upper low .... UPPER LOW
FORECAST NEAR 37S140E 05Z, 36S141E 11Z
Leading edge of the cloudband was visible just to the west of Melbourne at
6am.
22:04 UTC, 04/07/2001
AMEND AREA FORECAST 042215 TO 051100 AREAS 30/32
AMD OVERVIEW:
FRONT FORECAST NEAR MILDURA/MT. GAMBIER 23Z, HAY/PORTLAND 05Z, TOCUMWAL /
WARRNAMBOOL 11Z. UPPER LOW FORECAST NEAR 37S140E 05Z, 36S141E 11Z. FOG
PATCHES EASTERN LAND TILL 02Z. RAIN AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 100NM OF FRONT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF FRONT AFTER 04Z, MAINLY IN N. SCATTERED SHOWERS
W OF FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING REST. LOW CLOUD IN PRECIP.
AMD WIND:
10000 14000 18500
010/20 MS07 010/25 MS15 360/30 MS26
REMARKS: WINDS BLW 7000 TENDING 310 DEGREES W OF FRONT, BUT WINDS ALL LEVELS
TENDING CLOCKWISE DIRECTION NEAR LOW AFTER 05Z.
AMD CLOUD:
ISOL CB 3000/25000 W OF FRONT AFTER 04Z, MAINLY IN N. SCT ST 1000/3000 IN
PRECIP, BKN ABOUT WINDWARD RANGES AND IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SCT CU 3000/15000
NEAR AND W OF FRONT, BKN NEAR SHRA/TSRA SCT CU 3000/10000 DEVELOPING REST.
AREAS OF BKN SC 3000/8000 IN RA.
SCT ACAS ABV 10000, BKN NEAR FRONT.
FREEZING LEVEL:
7500 DEC 5000 W OF FRONT.
Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "dann weatherhead"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney & Brisbane Wx
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 11:01:28 +1000
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Interesting. There is quite a large CB to my SW, probably near the coast out
to sea. Over the mountains there is CJ's strectching right across the
horizon. Most of the cloud on the satpic is high cloud, but interesting none
the less :)
We had a 35.7mm last night here ( at cranebrook) from the slow moving shower
cell. It was the first drop of rain we have had in near two months.
daniel
----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius"
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List"
Sent: Tuesday, July 03, 2001 9:43 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney & Brisbane Wx
> Hi all,
>
> Sat pic looks rather interesting for Sydney and a bit west, further
> north towards SE QLD. More so for Sydney though, what are people's
> thoughts? I was a little surprised they went for showers, the sounding
> is very impressive the freezing level is at 800mb, 500mb temp is
> -26C(!!!) and -43C 365mb before a small inversion, -46C at 300mb though.
> If it gets to 16/9 (PBL averaged DP) it's unstable to 390mb in Sydney,
> the max temp forecast is 18C. Looking at radar there appears to be
> strong showers/storms out to sea at the moment, some of them pulsing
> into the pink. I realise there'll be a weak trough out to sea and that
> will act as a trigger in the wrong place, but is there a possibility of
> something over land later this arvo for Sydney???
>
> Of a little less interest, the sat pic wasn't quite what I was expecting
> for us in SE QLD! The air is very cold, but there's a significant
> inversion just below 500mb, -17C at 520mb, but -14C from 500mb to 420mb!
> -34C at 300mb though. The BoM are going for local thunder on the border
> ranges - there were some weak Cbs and large showers yesterday. The air
> over us however will get colder as this upper trough continues to
> amplify somewhat. This is going to be a wild card - we could see some
> hailstorms if the cold air gets here in time, the 400mb temps are
> looking to drop from -18C to -28C according to AVN!
>
> Something to keep an eye on though...
>
> AC
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert"
To: ,
"old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)"
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ever changing models...
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 11:33:34 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Hi David and all.
While the models are showing dramatic swings, my barometer is showing a slow
and steady fall, which in the old days was said to foretell 'Long notice,
long last. Short notice soon past!'. Well this one is showing Long notice,we
should treat models as sophisticated barometers and then keep looking at the
sky. best wishes Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: David Jones
To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)
Sent: Thursday, July 05, 2001 8:42 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Ever changing models...
> The damn models have done it again with the coming low system for SE
> Australia, and decided to change quite considerably from yesterdays runs.
> Instead of an intense low developing near central Victoria, with
widespread
> sub 540 thickness values over the Victorian highlands/NSW (read heavy
snow),
> they are now spinning up a much warmer low further north and east, to lie
> near the Southern NSW coast on Saturday/Sunday. The rather dramatic swings
> back and forth in the model predictions over recent days, suggests that
much
> uncertainty exists in what exactly will happen over the weekend for those
in
> the SE.... I guess the only safe bet is that some parts of the area will
be
> subject to heavy rain, while most areas will be subject to strong winds.
As
> for snow this could make the season, or leave us skiers waiting for the
next
> system to fire things up......
>
> Cheers,
>
> David.
>
>
> Dr David Jones
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
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From: "clyve herbert"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Total rainfall for Schofields. cf HK
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 11:35:41 +1000
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Hi Phil.
Amazing! and I thought my total of 177mm in April here at Leopold was
something to brag about.regards Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: Phil Smith
To:
Sent: Thursday, July 05, 2001 7:41 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Total rainfall for Schofields. cf HK
> Jimmy, we beat Schofields by 1080.8 mm! Our total here for June was
> 1083.6 mm, the highest on record.
> The summary for this month is at
> http://www2.info.gov.hk/hko/wxinfo/pastwx/monthly.htm
> and as this was a month for superlatives you have to scroll a long way.
> And now we are under Typhoon Utor whose centre is 620 Km ESE of here but
> whose winds and rain have already arrived.
>
> Phil
> <><
> International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Jimmy Deguara
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 18:21:25 +1000
> Subject: aus-wx: Total rainfall for Schofields.
>
> > Hi all,
> >
> > The rainfall at Schofields has totalled 2.8mm for the month of June.
> > Certainly the driest June I have recorded since my records began in
> > 1987.
> > We'll see what July holds.
> >
> > -----------------------------------------
> > Jimmy Deguara
> > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> >
> > from
> > Schofields, Sydney
> > NSW Australia
> >
> > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> >
> > Web Page with Michael Bath
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> > http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> >
> > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > +
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> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
>
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 05 Jul 2001 11:59:53 +1000
From: GregSki
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ever changing models...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I wouldn't write this system off yet. It still does have potential for some good
snowfalls. I always had doubts about the low N of NZ moving SW and joining with
the low approaching from the west I think this was the reason why the models
were so optimistic yesterday but today as more data became available they sort
of back off a little bit.
Nevertheless it will be interesting to watch what will unfold in the next 24-48
hours.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: David Jones
> To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)
> Sent: Thursday, July 05, 2001 8:42 AM
> Subject: aus-wx: Ever changing models...
>
> > The damn models have done it again with the coming low system for SE
> > Australia, and decided to change quite considerably from yesterdays runs.
> > Instead of an intense low developing near central Victoria, with
> widespread
> > sub 540 thickness values over the Victorian highlands/NSW (read heavy
> snow),
> > they are now spinning up a much warmer low further north and east, to lie
> > near the Southern NSW coast on Saturday/Sunday. The rather dramatic swings
> > back and forth in the model predictions over recent days, suggests that
> much
> > uncertainty exists in what exactly will happen over the weekend for those
> in
> > the SE.... I guess the only safe bet is that some parts of the area will
> be
> > subject to heavy rain, while most areas will be subject to strong winds.
> As
> > for snow this could make the season, or leave us skiers waiting for the
> next
> > system to fire things up......
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > David.
> >
> >
> > Dr David Jones
> >
> > Climate Analysis Section
> > National Climate Centre
> > Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> > Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Laurier Williams"
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com"
Subject: aus-wx: Norfolk Island rain
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 12:14:18 +1000
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Not in Hong Kong league, but Norfolk Island notched up 108mm for the 24 hrs
to 9am this morning. Its heaviest July day total in 106 years has been
157mm. The low is still close by, with the airport barometer reading 993.9
at 9am.
Laurier
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Mark Hardy"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Ever changing models...
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 12:33:59 +1000
Organization: The Weather Company
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Ah gregski, you do get around. :)
Mark Hardy
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street North Sydney 2060
Phone (direct) (02) 8912 6222
Fax (02) 9955 1536
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
http://www.theweather.com.au
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of GregSki
Sent: Thursday, 5 July 2001 12:00 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ever changing models...
I wouldn't write this system off yet. It still does have potential for
some good snowfalls. I always had doubts about the low N of NZ moving SW
and joining with the low approaching from the west I think this was the
reason why the models were so optimistic yesterday but today as more
data became available they sort of back off a little bit.
Nevertheless it will be interesting to watch what will unfold in the
next 24-48 hours.
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\mhardy at theweather.com.au.vcf"
From: "Laurier Williams"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Satellite images
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 12:51:29 +1000
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That's right, Jane. It appears, though, that the JMA engineers are
fine-tuning the new configuration somewhat, as the four main synoptic hour
scans (2330, 0530, 1130 and 1730) are now going farther south than the
stated 49 degrees -- the 2330z images today go down to about 57S in east
Australian longitudes. The engineering problem has been lubrication buildup
at the southern extreme of the scanner, so presumably JMA is working out the
best compromise between getting the best coverage and minimising potential
problems on the southern end of the scan.
In addition to losing Southern Ocean geostationary coverage, the other big
loss is hourly southern hemisphere (i.e. Australian) coverage. The new
regime only scans our region at:
(utc)
0230
0430, 0500, 0530
0830
1030, 1100, 1130
1430
1630, 1700, 1730
2030
2230, 2300, 2330
The four clustered scans are to enable cloud movement calculations. The
following hourly pix are therefore missing: 00(30), 01, 03, 06, 07, 09, 12,
13, 15, 18, 19, 21. This makes animations (like those at
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/gms5ir.html) a bit of a problem, while the
satellite derived winds from
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/winds/winds.html ceased
working after the change late yesterday morning.
GMS-5 is still doing hourly scans down as far as the equator. GOES-8 gives
hourly images west to include New Zealand, while the IndoEx satellite is
good east to about the WA/SA border (best images are from
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html -- hourly and available very quickly,
but full globe). That leaves the eastern half of Australia, the Antarctic
and the Arctic as the only parts of the globe without hourly coverage.
Laurier
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
> Sent: Wednesday, 04 July, 2001 10:54 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Satellite images
>
>
> ahem...and 30secs after I hit 'Send' i worked out the answer to my own
> question - the area that is cut off shows the limits of GMS-5
> doesn't it?
>
> Roll on the low to the west.....pleased to see that vectoring from the
> JCU satellite loop works a treat - that low is going to land in
> western Victoria I think........lightning to the west - the lightning
> detector is on!!
> ftp://ftp.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausmovie.gif
>
> Jane
>
>
> > Can someone tell me why the satpics are cut off south of Australia but
> > not anywhere else in the southern hemisphere????
> >
> >
> > http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/global/stitched/ir/LATEST.jpg
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > ASWA - Victoria
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
> --
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 05 Jul 2001 14:36:02 +1000
From: GregSki
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Unconfirmed report of snow in the Grampians
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
There has been an _unconfirmed_ report of snow falling in the Grampians in
Western VIC.
Lookout Hill AWS indicates temperature of about +1 (at 900m) so I would think
that this is quite possible.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Tina Jones"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Unconfirmed report of snow in the Grampians
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 14:50:02 +1000
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Did you get that info from the SnoInfo forum?
Tina :-)
----- Original Message -----
From: "GregSki"
To:
Sent: Thursday, July 05, 2001 2:36 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Unconfirmed report of snow in the Grampians
> There has been an _unconfirmed_ report of snow falling in the Grampians in
> Western VIC.
> Lookout Hill AWS indicates temperature of about +1 (at 900m) so I would
think
> that this is quite possible.
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 05 Jul 2001 15:19:20 +1000
From: GregSki
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Unconfirmed report of snow in the Grampians
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Yes. It was posted by Bigaus. A friend currently over there SMSed him.
Tina Jones wrote:
> Did you get that info from the SnoInfo forum?
> Tina :-)
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 15:41:52 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List ,
aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith
Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: Typhoon Utor Hong Kong update
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All.
The following are emails from Phil in Hong Kong I have forwarded to the
list. The internet there is bogged down with traffic as I indicated it
probably would be yesterday.
Will forward whatever Phil gets through to me.
It is probably quicker to use the links for latest info on my page at
http://users.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm rather than Phil's at the
moment.
Regards,
Carl.
Yep. Here she comes.
The pressure in Shatin has dropped from 1003 to 989.
We have had the 33C plus temperatures over midnight in most of HK and the
cloud bands have been passing over an otherwise clear but hazy sky.
The centre is still 620 Km ESE of here, but the winds have been picking
up all night.
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
Just changed the page to show signal 3:
============================
Typhoon Signal Number 3 (Strong Winds) was hoisted at 10:45 on 5th July
2001.
===========================
The HKO site is utterly unreachable from HK and WXHK is not much better.
It rolled over its 10 millionth hit after 1900 yesterday and early this
morning had added on more than 69000 more since then. Leaves your site
and mine behind in the dust!
Went for a long walk this morning and couldn't get back home as the sea
level had risen so high that the footpath and cycleway were underwater so
I had to clamber up onto the road bridge and risk my neck amongst the
traffic.
Tomorrow morning's high spring tide with the storm surge added should be
a rare sight. I'm glad my flat is on the fourth floor.
Cannot get onto the Forum at present, server overloaded.
Gusty here and bands of high level cloud going over frequently with clear
blue skies in between. You can feel it picking up.
I am going out to work now and might well be sent fleeing for home by a
number 8 signal before I finish.
Will attempt to update you later.
I won't get time to send this to Aussie weather so you might forward on
whatever I get through to you.
seeyer.
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 05 Jul 2001 16:40:29 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.77 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List
Subject: aus-wx: Cold Weather and Cars...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
Excuse the ignorance here (can you tell I'm a Brisbanite?) I'm going to
Armidale for a few days tomorrow, and I was wondering about two things:
a) Do I need to add anti-freeze to the radiator
b) Anti-freeze to the wiper washer fluid?
If so - what type of anti-freeze, and how much do I put in?
Thanks!
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Tina Jones"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold Weather and Cars...
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 17:12:08 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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Hi Anthony,
I would definitely be putting anti freeze in to go to Armidale at this time
of year, especially in the next few days! Just go to the servo & buy some &
follow the directions on the container. You will probably need the largest
size (5L?) depending on what size engine/radiator you have.
I wouldn't worry about the washer water, anti freeze is probably not very
friendly to paint! Although I've been told metho may work, not that I would
try it!
Have a safe trip!
Tina :-)
----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius"
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List"
Sent: Thursday, July 05, 2001 4:40 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Cold Weather and Cars...
> Hi all,
>
> Excuse the ignorance here (can you tell I'm a Brisbanite?) I'm going to
> Armidale for a few days tomorrow, and I was wondering about two things:
>
> a) Do I need to add anti-freeze to the radiator
> b) Anti-freeze to the wiper washer fluid?
>
> If so - what type of anti-freeze, and how much do I put in?
>
> Thanks!
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "George"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold Weather and Cars...
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 17:57:29 +1000
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Dear Anthony,
a) If your radiator water does not look like water (ie is a blue/green or
rusty colour), it prob. has coolant in it which doubles as anti-freeze. Be
careful with antifreeze preparations as they can damage your radiator.
b) Just add a little liquid detergent to your wiper fluid- sparkling
windscreen & no ice formation.\
George
Blackheath, NSW
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Neale the Great White Shark
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 20:37:25 +1000
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Weather lovers are usually curious about anything nature. So you may enjoy
this one.
The CSIRO has tagged a great white shark dubbed Neale.
http://www.marine.csiro.au/mumeez/sharks/
The surprising thing is just how much coastline Neale has covered.
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Dean McWhinney"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Neale the Great White Shark
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 20:42:18 +1000
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True im a fisherman more than a weatherwatcher (DONT FLAME ME ) and i
thought it was amazing :)
----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Thompson
To:
Sent: Thursday, July 05, 2001 8:37 PM
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Neale the Great White Shark
> Weather lovers are usually curious about anything nature. So you may enjoy
> this one.
>
> The CSIRO has tagged a great white shark dubbed Neale.
>
> http://www.marine.csiro.au/mumeez/sharks/
>
> The surprising thing is just how much coastline Neale has covered.
>
> Michael Thompson
> http://ozthunder.com
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: Victoria
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 22:46:00 +1000
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Evening all,
The low is up around Mildura this evening & has developed a rather
dramatic dry slot. The major cloud band is becoming 'latitudinal' & it
looks like the Geelong area, the Otways & Gippsland might be favoured
(again) & the east of Melbourne might miss out (again)...... cloud
coming back home from NSW looks like it isn't far off being dragged into
the system...interesting couple of days ahead.
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Tim Eckert
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com"
X-Originating-IP: [203.173.250.142]
Date: Thu, 05 Jul 2001 22:20:43 +0930
X-mailer: AspMail 4.0 4.02 (SMT4DD4B4F)
Subject: Re: Petrol Prices (was) Re: aus-wx: Mini-chase yesterday
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
http://www.fuelwatch.com.au/
now also covers Adelaide and Perth as well.
Original message from: Anthony Cornelius
>
>Hi all,
>
>Slightly off topic, but this may help some people. A group called
"Fuel
>Watch" post fuel prices up on their site, and they can also email you
>the latest fuel prices eacfh morning. Go to:
>
>http://www.fuelwatch.com.au
>
>It's handy as it gives you an idea what fuel prices are like in other
>areas of town (subsequently if you have to drive through several
>suburbs, you get an idea where the cheapest fuel is).
>
>As far as I know, it only does Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne.
>
>Fuel took a dabble in the high 60's last week, but it's back into the
>70's...70.7c/L is the cheapest here at the moment.
>
>AC
>
>Jane ONeill wrote:
>>
>> "mini-chase"??????
>> all 414kms of it.... (thank goodness petrol was <80c a litre)
>>
>> I'll upload my pics when I manage to get them off the digital cam.
I
>> ended up further south than Robert while hunting an embedded Cb
(nothing
>> like winter for getting in some practice) - found it & got melted
hail
>> in the process, a 10-20 & a temperature of 9.2C, so I was quite
>> pleased. Found a couple of good lookouts & SCD met 10 calves - I'm
not
>> quite sure who was the most bemused... Cadence or the calves......
>>
>> Not much of a chase report but there'll be some nice pics
(structure &
>> sunsets) whe I manage to retrieve them
>>
>> Jane
>> --------------------------------
>> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>>
>> Melbourne Storm Chasers
>> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>>
>> ASWA - Victoria
>> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>> --------------------------------
>>
>> >
>> > Hey all
>> >
>> > Thanks to info from Jane, I managed to go on a little chase out
>> Ballarat
>> > way yesterday. Here's what I saw:
>> >
>> >
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_07_01/today.html
>> > (yes, I saw a webpage :)
>> >
>> > There was some cumulus congestus around which started to beef up
a bit
>> > more around sunset. Managed to drive through some small hail as
well.
>> > In all it's not really that spectacular, but better than nothing,
and
>> it
>> > enabled me to test out my camcorder. The uploaded images are
perhaps
>> a
>> > bit too big as you can see the pixels, but I'll improve that next
time
>> > 'round.
>> >
>> > I've also put Melbourne's local radar for yesterday up on the
page.
>> >
>> > I'll be interested to see any snaps Jane took.
>> >
>> >
>> > Cheers
>> >
>> > --
>> >
>> > Robert A. Goler
>> >
>> > Department of Mathematics and Statistics
>> > Monash University
>> > Clayton, Vic 3800
>> > Australia
>> >
>> > ph. +61 3 9905 4424
>> > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
>> > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>> >
>> > --
>> >
>> >
>>
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of
>> your
>> > message.
>> >
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
>> --
>>
>>
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>>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
-
>
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
>Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
-
>.
>
__________________________________________________________________
Get your free Australian email account at http://www.start.com.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 02:35:01 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List ,
aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith
Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: Typhoon Utor - Hong Kong update - Signal 8 now hoisted
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Phil sent me another email, pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
Date: Thu, 05 Jul 2001 20:53:21 +0800
Subject: Signal 8 now hoisted
While I was out working today, there were many rain bands chasing each
other over HK with increasingly strengthening winds as each band crossed
over and decreasing amounts of blue sky in between.
I left my last appointment at about 18:00 and rang Wendy's phone and
discovered she was waiting in an enormous queue for a bus right near
where I was. The queues had swelled suddenly because the HKO had just
announced that Signal Eight would be hoisted within the next two hours.
I picked her and Victor up and decided to give the Central tunnels a miss
and go the long way round because the traffic was so heavy. Bad choice.
Everybody else must have had the same idea because it took two hours for
a twenty-two minute drive. The traffic striving to get home before the
hoisting of Signal Eight was so dense that the tunnel authorities
switched the lights to allow an additional tunnel to be used for going
homewards so we had three lanes North and one South. It feels odd to
drive along freeways on the other side of the central plantation in what
is normally the oncoming traffic lane with two single lanes of opposing
traffic.
Even with the emergency extra lanes, the traffic was slowed to a crawl
and the rain just teemed down. In fact it would have been rather
dangerous to have driven much faster anyway. The gusts of winds were
rocking the car about and my car is only small and low - a Suzuki Swift
(called a Holden Barina in Australia, I think). The taller cars and vans
were really swaying about.
The observatory hoisted the Typhoon Signal number Eight (North East Gale
Force Winds) at 19:30 while I was still driving home. At about 19:45 the
rain suddenly cleared and there was dead calm. Strange how often that
happens just after the hoisting of a Gale or Hurricane Signal.
And no, it was not the eye of the storm, that was still 300 odd
kilometres away. It just happens that you can get a completely calm spot
in between the rainbands on occasion.
Now as I type at about 20:45, the rain is still holding off, but the wind
is picking up again in gusts.
Apart from traffic chaos, I don't think the storm has caused many other
problems as yet.
JTWC, HKO, and JMA are all still predicting an extremely close approach
to HK tomorrow morning.
I shall endeavour to keep you posted.
It is extremely difficult to get onto any web-site related to weather
here at the moment. Clarence has had 153,281 hits to his page in less
than 24 hours.
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 01:00:50 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob
Subject: aus-wx: Near record cold temperature in WA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
The town of York, just to the east of Perth, recorded the third coldest
temperature ever in Western Australia yesterday (Thursday) morning, when it
got down to -6.1C. The coldest temperature ever recorded in WA is -6.7C in
Booylgoo Springs, which was on the 12th July, 1969.
Perth got down to 1.1C, its coldest for 3 years.
Jacob
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula"
To: "aus-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: surface obs plotting program
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 14:54:59 -0700
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Hi,
I know i have asked this before but recevied no reply, so i'm not sure if
maybe the message didn't get thorugh or something ;/
Anyway, it's really frustrating not having the surface obs plotted so to
pick out surface lows etc. Does anyone know of any resource, software,
anything, that could do this?
It would be much appreciated!
Thanks, Lyle
|
- -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- -- - -
|
| Graduate Research Assistant /\
. Department of Atmospheric Science _ / \
. Colorado State University / \ / \
ph: +1 (970) 491 7785 / \/~~~~~~\/\
. fax: +1 (970) 491 8166 /~~~~/ / \
email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu / / / \
web: http://reef.atmos.colostate.edu/lyle/ / \
.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Snow in Blackheath
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 07:18:40 +1000
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Hi all,
A little surprised to find snow on the ground in Blackheath this morning
that must have come in behind the initial rain band. I didn't think it would
get cold enough until later today/tonight/tomorrow morning.
Nice little cover. There's 5mm in the gauge this morning but I'd say about
1mm or so would have been snow. It's still around 0C at 7:15am with a nice
dusting of snow around. Hope we get some more. How did other spots fair?
Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mark Hardy"
To:
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 07:18:06 +1000
From: David Carroll
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.75 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather
Subject: aus-wx: SNOW SNOW SNOW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
06/7. 7.17am
Snow started at 4am in Lithgow area. Awoke to see Snow on Mt
Panorama, police scanner stated SES road crews are currently letting
traffic through at Raglan on the outskirts of Bathurst (Great Western
Highway). Heavy snow falls at Mt Fitzgerald between Blayney & Bathurst,
road conditions extremely dangerous. Police doing road pattrol. By the
explanation of the police I wouldnt be suprised to see Mid Western Hwy
closed soon. Also reports of heavy snow on Mitchell Hwy between Orange
& Bathurst. SES now doing road patrol of Great Western Hwy at Frying Pan
creek, Yetholme, snow on ground and very slippery. If anyone has UHF CB,
tune to CH 40. Many updates been broadcast by trucks.
7.15am, all traffic on Great Western Hwy is currently moving, SES have
stated roads very bad, traffic should not be flowing near Sunny Corner.
http://www.hotkey.net.au/~davidkc/snowreports.html Please see this page
for road reports. I will be at work from 9am, I will update via emails.
Dave
Bathurst
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Simon_Wild at hyder.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Snow in Sydney????
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 07:41:42 +1000
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on SydneyNotes1/Sydney/HydCon(Release 5.0.6a |January
17, 2001) at 07/06/2001 07:41:51 AM
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Dear All
As I have only been in Sydney for about 3 years I'm unsure of the long term
weather patterns or records. Has there ever been any reported case of snow
in SYdney or inner suburbs? Or is it just a myth?? What abour sleet? I guy
here reckons that we could get sleet in Sydney, but I don't think he's very
well informed. Whats everyones thoughts??
Simon
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 07:40:00 +1000
From: David Carroll
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.75 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather
Subject: aus-wx: Snow road reports
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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7.30am
Abercrombie rd - from Oberon to Black Springs is closed, worst spots
are 5km N of Black Springs, grader is being used at this time.
Mid Western Hwy is open - between Bathurst and Blayney.
Road open from Orange & Blayney.
Road conditions reported icey and dangerous on Great Western Hwy,
possible road closing later on. SES & Police patrolling roads and
traffic.
Dave
Bathurst
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 08:57:33 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Sel Kerans
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow in Sydney????
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello all,
How about 1836?
Reported snow on the ground in Sydney 27th-28th June and 3rd, 5th July 1836.
Nice piece of trivia for you...
While we're at it...
...in 1900 - unprecedented snow falls in NSW central districts. Nearly a
metre of snow at Bathurst and Forbes had its first reported snowstorm since
people settled there.
Are we going to better this one at Bathurst?
Anyone else have access to other NSW snow facts?
Sel.
QLD
At 07:41 6/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
>
>Dear All
>
>As I have only been in Sydney for about 3 years I'm unsure of the long term
>weather patterns or records. Has there ever been any reported case of snow
>in SYdney or inner suburbs? Or is it just a myth?? What abour sleet? I guy
>here reckons that we could get sleet in Sydney, but I don't think he's very
>well informed. Whats everyones thoughts??
>
>Simon
>
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> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sel Kerans
Coordinator \|/ &&&&&
Project Atmosphere Australia On-line -0- .--_|\ "/"
WWW: http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa /|\ / \ \
Email: skerans at mail.cth.com.au \_.--\_/
EQ: sel.kerans at qed.qld.gov.au v
ph 07 3881 9623 fax 07 3881 9640
*** Now taking registrations from schools around the world ***
*** On-line activities scheduled for June, September 2001 ***
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow in Sydney????
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5 September 22, 2000
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 09:25:05 +1000
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Reports of heavy snow in Oberon, power outages in this area with power
lines down. Approx 4 inches of snow in Oberon. Black Springs, Burraga
areas will possibly be off most of day.. Light snow been falling which is
still hanging of lines. A crew of 10 in Oberon/Black Springs repairing
damage. Staff also from Bathurst travelling to Oberon.
Will keep updating during day, I dont think we have seen the worst of it
yet.. !!
Dave
Bathurst
----- Forwarded by David Carroll/Advance on 06/07/2001 09:17 -----
Sel Kerans
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sent by: cc:
aussie-weather-approval at wor Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow in Sydney????
ld.std.com
06/07/2001 08:57
Please respond to
aussie-weather
Hello all,
How about 1836?
Reported snow on the ground in Sydney 27th-28th June and 3rd, 5th July
1836.
Nice piece of trivia for you...
While we're at it...
...in 1900 - unprecedented snow falls in NSW central districts. Nearly a
metre of snow at Bathurst and Forbes had its first reported snowstorm since
people settled there.
Are we going to better this one at Bathurst?
Anyone else have access to other NSW snow facts?
Sel.
QLD
At 07:41 6/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
>
>Dear All
>
>As I have only been in Sydney for about 3 years I'm unsure of the long
term
>weather patterns or records. Has there ever been any reported case of snow
>in SYdney or inner suburbs? Or is it just a myth?? What abour sleet? I guy
>here reckons that we could get sleet in Sydney, but I don't think he's
very
>well informed. Whats everyones thoughts??
>
>Simon
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sel Kerans
Coordinator \|/ &&&&&
Project Atmosphere Australia On-line -0- .--_|\ "/"
WWW: http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa /|\ / \ \
Email: skerans at mail.cth.com.au \_.--\_/
EQ: sel.kerans at qed.qld.gov.au v
ph 07 3881 9623 fax 07 3881 9640
*** Now taking registrations from schools around the world ***
*** On-line activities scheduled for June, September 2001 ***
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: NinnesM at franklins.com.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: a few sunset cb pics
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 10:01:39 +1000
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Hi all,
Just a few scans of a sunset-lit Cb around Sydney on Tuesday afternoon.
http://home.iprimus.com.au/meso/030701/
Malcolm Ninnes
Unix Systems Admin
National Technical Services - Franklins Ltd
Ph. (02) 9722-1862
ninnesm at franklins.com.au
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From: "John Woodbridge"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Snow in Sydney????
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 11:30:45 +1000
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Hi Simon.
I have seen sleet in Hornsby, 'bout 6 years ago now, but I recall it being
an occassional occurrence every couple of years or so, partly due to the
200m elevation.
John.
Dear All
As I have only been in Sydney for about 3 years I'm unsure of the long term
weather patterns or records. Has there ever been any reported case of snow
in SYdney or inner suburbs? Or is it just a myth?? What abour sleet? I guy
here reckons that we could get sleet in Sydney, but I don't think he's very
well informed. Whats everyones thoughts??
Simon
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Oberon - Sydney, Duckmaloi Rd,Hampden Rd
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 09:56:10 +1000
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9.50am 06/7.
Another update for Oberon.. 4 trucks jacknifed on the Duckmaloi Rd between
Oberon & Sydney.. possible 2 hrs before road clear.
Dave
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Subject: aus-wx: WEATHER: Storms off NSW Coast
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 10:26:20 +1000 (EST)
From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter)
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Good morning,
I am surprised that nobody has mentioned the line of fairly
active thunderstorms just off the entire length of the NSW coast.
The leading edge of the upper-level cold pool is overspreading
warm SSTs (~20 C) here, resulting in the best electric show that we've
had for weeks (months?). The SSY (upstream) sounding is moist adiabatic
up to the tropopause around 350 hPa. Putting a 20/20 optimistic
surface parcel (assumed in equilibrium with the average SSTs) under
that profile delivers a fair amount of CAPE, possibly several
thousand J/kg using eyeball technology. Flow aloft is moderate,
not entirely excluding an isolated embedded supercell in that line.
Cheers, Harald
--
--------------------------------
Harald Richter
BMRC
PO Box 1289K
Melbourne VIC 3001
Australia
ph: +61 3 9669 4501
fax: +61 3 9669 4660
email: h.richter at bom.gov.au
url: soon(ish)
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X-Originating-IP: [203.63.118.5]
From: "Patrick Tobin"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow road reports
Date: Thu, 05 Jul 2001 23:58:42
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Jul 2001 23:58:42.0824 (UTC) FILETIME=[6B732080:01C105AE]
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Dave,
Thanks for your road info.
There is a major search and rescue exercise being conducted in the
Abercrombie National Park this weekend (involving several hundred people).
Your road info is being passed on to the organisers...
In conditions such as these, there is a definite risk that the training
exercise may become the real thing!!!
Cheers,
Patrick
>From: David Carroll
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: Aussie Weather
>Subject: aus-wx: Snow road reports
>Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 07:40:00 +1000
>7.30am
>
>Abercrombie rd - from Oberon to Black Springs is closed, worst spots
>are 5km N of Black Springs, grader is being used at this time.
>
>Mid Western Hwy is open - between Bathurst and Blayney.
>Road open from Orange & Blayney.
>
>Road conditions reported icey and dangerous on Great Western Hwy,
>possible road closing later on. SES & Police patrolling roads and
>traffic.
>
>Dave
>Bathurst
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Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 08:26:04 +1000
From: Andrew Miskelly
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow in Blackheath
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Also a nice dusting here in Taralga. I was only a little surprised as
when I went to bed at 2:30 the rain band was comming through Bathurst
and it was 3 up there.
I've never seen this before - it's dead calm now and there's fog patches
around - usually it's blowing a gale and what not when we get snow here.
It's now overcast but dry - mostly Alto Stratus.
Andrew.
Lindsay Pearce wrote:
>
> Hi all,
>
> A little surprised to find snow on the ground in Blackheath this morning
> that must have come in behind the initial rain band. I didn't think it would
> get cold enough until later today/tonight/tomorrow morning.
>
> Nice little cover. There's 5mm in the gauge this morning but I'd say about
> 1mm or so would have been snow. It's still around 0C at 7:15am with a nice
> dusting of snow around. Hope we get some more. How did other spots fair?
>
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: violin at lisp.com.au
> Blackheath Weather:
> http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Mark Hardy"
> To:
>
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From: "Laurier Williams"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Here it comes
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 19:00:52 +1000
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An impressive view of the system at
http://www.rss.dola.wa.gov.au/newsite/noaaql/2001/JUL/04/M16_4030ql.jpg
As noted earlier, GMS has ceased to exist south of 49S. Murphy tells me that
this means exciting developments in that area all winter.
Laurier
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Bussie
> Sent: Wednesday, 4 July 2001 18:10
> To: weather list
> Subject: aus-wx: Here it comes
>
>
> SWA issued for SA at 4.10pm. It's on its way :-)
> Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
>
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From: "Laurier Williams"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: surface obs plotting program
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 09:08:45 +1000
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Lyle,
I've used Tim Vasquez's Digital Atmosphere for several years and believe
it's the best. Details at http://www.weathergraphics.com/
You use data from Florida State University and several other sites, and can
have a plotted, analysed map ready ~20 mins after obs time.
Laurier
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Lyle Pakula
> Sent: Friday, 06 July, 2001 7:55 AM
> To: aus-wx
> Subject: aus-wx: surface obs plotting program
>
>
> Hi,
>
> I know i have asked this before but recevied no reply, so i'm not sure if
> maybe the message didn't get thorugh or something ;/
>
> Anyway, it's really frustrating not having the surface obs plotted so to
> pick out surface lows etc. Does anyone know of any resource, software,
> anything, that could do this?
>
> It would be much appreciated!
>
> Thanks, Lyle
>
>
> |
> - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- -- - -
> |
> | Graduate Research Assistant /\
> . Department of Atmospheric Science _ / \
> . Colorado State University / \ / \
> ph: +1 (970) 491 7785 / \/~~~~~~\/\
> . fax: +1 (970) 491 8166 /~~~~/ / \
> email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu / / / \
> web: http://reef.atmos.colostate.edu/lyle/ / \
> .
>
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Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 09:52:03 +1000
From: Peter Creswick
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en]C-CCK-MCD NSCPCD47 (Win95; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow in Sydney????
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I remember sleet at school at Kingsgrove a few times as a kid in the
1963-1966 time period.
Peter C
Sel Kerans wrote:
>
> Hello all,
>
> How about 1836?
>
> Reported snow on the ground in Sydney 27th-28th June and 3rd, 5th July 1836.
>
> Nice piece of trivia for you...
>
> While we're at it...
>
> ...in 1900 - unprecedented snow falls in NSW central districts. Nearly a
> metre of snow at Bathurst and Forbes had its first reported snowstorm since
> people settled there.
>
> Are we going to better this one at Bathurst?
>
> Anyone else have access to other NSW snow facts?
>
> Sel.
> QLD
>
> At 07:41 6/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
> >
> >Dear All
> >
> >As I have only been in Sydney for about 3 years I'm unsure of the long term
> >weather patterns or records. Has there ever been any reported case of snow
> >in SYdney or inner suburbs? Or is it just a myth?? What abour sleet? I guy
> >here reckons that we could get sleet in Sydney, but I don't think he's very
> >well informed. Whats everyones thoughts??
> >
> >Simon
> >
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> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Sel Kerans
> Coordinator \|/ &&&&&
> Project Atmosphere Australia On-line -0- .--_|\ "/"
> WWW: http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa /|\ / \ \
> Email: skerans at mail.cth.com.au \_.--\_/
> EQ: sel.kerans at qed.qld.gov.au v
>
> ph 07 3881 9623 fax 07 3881 9640
>
> *** Now taking registrations from schools around the world ***
> *** On-line activities scheduled for June, September 2001 ***
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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From: "Laurier Williams"
To:
Subject: RE: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 11:47:21 +1000
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The models are still pretty mixed in their scenarios for the early weekend,
which is when the colder air will get farther north, if at all. The latest
EC keeps the 540 line around the Central/Northern Tablelands boundary in
NSW, though has a centre of 534 around Orange on both Friday and Sat at
12UTC. The GASP 12z run also has a centre of 534 over Orange on Friday, and
pushes the 540 boundary towards the Qld border, but slackens it all off by
12z Sat.
Both US models are pretty marginal for snow away from the Alps, with
thicknesses just below 540 and 850 temps just below 0. None of the models
has much rain over NSW apart from the ST and SWS -- probably at best 5 to
10mm over the Fri + Sat.
I have a gut feeling that snow and rain in this event will be determined by
small-scale issues. The way the warm, moist air is forecast to wrap around
the low that develops in Bass Strait on Sat and interacts with the cold
airmass will be the thing I'll be watching. The models are having enormous
difficulties with this low -- latest GASP (12z) has it 1002 off Gabo on Fri
night and 992 over Melbourne on Sat night, EC moves it from 1004 at 500km E
of Gabo Fri night to 997 on Mt Gambier Sat night!!! Yesterday's MRF simply
has a trough on Fri from a central Tasman low to Bass Strait, but develops
this explosively into a 990hPa low of the E Gippsland coast Sat morning, and
keeps it there, slowly decaying through to +144hrs on Monday morning. From
all this, I suspect that the developments in the area are a bit too dynamic
for the models to be comfortable with, hence the variation, though obviously
a major development is now highly likely.
Whatever happens, it should relieve SDS for a few days.
Laurier
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Lyle Pakula
> Sent: Wednesday, 04 July, 2001 4:27 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?
>
>
> Hi Winter Weather Watchers,
>
> I think the chance of some seriously heavy *rain* is very likely
> but only in
> the inital stages. Climatoligically, this is a really good time
> for snow and
> bombs so I think whatever the models are saying is maybe a bit
> biased - due
> to obs or model error? Who knows but i'm going with climo on this
> and saying
> it will initially bring some rain and then heavy, heavy snow.
> However, there
> is some indiciation of this too, the models over the last two days are now
> increasing the penetration of the initial cold air from the front
> currently
> entering the bight and systems like this typical place their coldest air
> (pot temp) just above the surface extending verticaly, so thickness values
> of 540 would also include the lower level warmth. If NOGAPS comes through,
> the central mountains will be hit real hard.
>
> The movement of the low really is the big issue, as Laurier
> pointed out, the
> models differ on placment, intensification and propagation. I hope for all
> you back at home and my boarding buddies that this comes through
> to give the
> season a real boost! Though i can't look at too many oz charts,
> it's a chase
> day in E Wyo :)
>
> Cheers, Lyle
>
>
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Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 09:54:09 +1000
From: Peter Creswick
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en]C-CCK-MCD NSCPCD47 (Win95; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow in Sydney????
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Worst ? - my foot - you are salivating !
Peter C
davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au wrote:
>
> Reports of heavy snow in Oberon, power outages in this area with power
> lines down. Approx 4 inches of snow in Oberon. Black Springs, Burraga
> areas will possibly be off most of day.. Light snow been falling which is
> still hanging of lines. A crew of 10 in Oberon/Black Springs repairing
> damage. Staff also from Bathurst travelling to Oberon.
>
> Will keep updating during day, I dont think we have seen the worst of it
> yet.. !!
>
> Dave
>
> Bathurst
> ----- Forwarded by David Carroll/Advance on 06/07/2001 09:17 -----
>
> Sel Kerans
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Sent by: cc:
> aussie-weather-approval at wor Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow in Sydney????
> ld.std.com
>
>
> 06/07/2001 08:57
> Please respond to
> aussie-weather
>
>
>
> Hello all,
>
> How about 1836?
>
> Reported snow on the ground in Sydney 27th-28th June and 3rd, 5th July
> 1836.
>
> Nice piece of trivia for you...
>
> While we're at it...
>
> ...in 1900 - unprecedented snow falls in NSW central districts. Nearly a
> metre of snow at Bathurst and Forbes had its first reported snowstorm since
> people settled there.
>
> Are we going to better this one at Bathurst?
>
> Anyone else have access to other NSW snow facts?
>
> Sel.
> QLD
>
> At 07:41 6/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
> >
> >Dear All
> >
> >As I have only been in Sydney for about 3 years I'm unsure of the long
> term
> >weather patterns or records. Has there ever been any reported case of snow
> >in SYdney or inner suburbs? Or is it just a myth?? What abour sleet? I guy
> >here reckons that we could get sleet in Sydney, but I don't think he's
> very
> >well informed. Whats everyones thoughts??
> >
> >Simon
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Sel Kerans
> Coordinator \|/ &&&&&
> Project Atmosphere Australia On-line -0- .--_|\ "/"
> WWW: http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa /|\ / \ \
> Email: skerans at mail.cth.com.au \_.--\_/
> EQ: sel.kerans at qed.qld.gov.au v
>
> ph 07 3881 9623 fax 07 3881 9640
>
> *** Now taking registrations from schools around the world ***
> *** On-line activities scheduled for June, September 2001 ***
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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From: "Simon Angell"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Canberra weather
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2001 00:31:40 +1000
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Hi all.
Just been checking the ACT forecast
for the next few days and headlining the brief is
Thursday : Late
showers/thunderstorms
Min: -1 Max: 11
Friday :
Showers,
windy
Min: 2 Max: 10
Saturday : Cold, showers,
windy
Min: 3 Max: 10
That thursday forecast (i modified it) is something that i
usually see in the summer months after the temp for the day is around 27*c NOT
11*c :).
AND THIS:
SITUATION:
A high pressure system is situated over NSW but is gradually
weakening as a
strong cold front moves across the Bight. Tomorrow is
expected to be fine after
morning frosts and fogs with increasing cloud on
Thursday with showers and
possible thunderstorms later. Snow falls down to
800 m on the ACT ranges
developing Thursday night. Friday and Saturday are
expected to be cold and windy
with some showers.
Also checking out snow-forcast and it shows the freezing
level of around 1200m (to the west) and 1300m (to the east) by 12am
thursday i would suspect it to be slightly colder during thursday as the
level moves across canberra from the west and we may even get sleet but we tend to get alot of that so im not that
excited. but lets hope the storms happen, if they do i will try to get photos
but im working till midnight (like normal). hopefully they will be late, real
late so i get some night shots!!!
Cheers
Simon Angell
Temp 0.1*c, Weatherzone shows 1.8*c
(im about 25 to 30Kms away for canberra AWS)
X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p558-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.142.50] claimed to be ihug.com.au
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 09:49:48 +1000
From: Peter Creswick
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en]C-CCK-MCD NSCPCD47 (Win95; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Lyle Pakula ,
aussie-weather
CC: Tim Vasquez
Subject: aus-wx: surface obs plotting program
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Lyle and all,
I have put this up before. Digital Atmosphere from Tim Vasquez at
Weather Graphics Technologies is what you need, in fact, all you
people on the group should be using it, nothing else comes close to
doing a decent job.
Download it at the links below. You can use it for a month fully
functional. The price is very reasonable for what it is. I started
using it about 2 years ago, registered it, when it was Version 2.3.3,
upgraded last year when Tim released Version 2000, and a major
upgrade, particularly to the 3D upper air functions is due soon (which
I am sweating on Tim - how soon ?).
Regards
Peter C
Weather Graphics Technologies -- Weather forecasting software
http://www.weathergraphics.com/
Weather Graphics Technologies -- Weather forecasting software, videos, and books

|

#1 SITE for weather software hounds
|
|
|
|
IAO / © 1996, 1999 Weather Graphics Technologies
|
|
SOME DELAYS UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING
(Thursday July 5) -- I have just returned from a 10-day trip
to California and Oregon and am
catching up on 4 days worth of support requests and sales orders.
I should be all caught up within 24 hours. Our 1-800 number
will also re-open tomorrow morning.
Don't worry, I'm not ignoring anyone. Thanks very much
for your patience!
-- Tim Vasquez
|

Big storms moving through central Oklahoma
on May 20.
|
Summer 2001: What's in store
(6/19/01) -- It is now summer here in Oklahoma and temperatures
have been touching 90 every day. However I have to complain quite
a bit about the enormous pollen levels that haven't subsided from
the spring months. I guess that's what we get for enjoying a
mild, wet winter!
Digital Atmosphere:
Full scale Digital Atmosphere programming work is
set to resume starting July 8. The past several months have been extremely
busy as I've been providing storm forecasting services and finishing
a flood warning system for NOAA
(QIWI).
I apologize for not being more active on the message board and
newsgroups, since those projects have kept me very busy.
In the meantime I appreciate all of the
comments, letters, and suggestions that I've received
from Digital Atmosphere 2000 users over the past
six months. Each and every one of them has been saved and will
be used thoroughly to create the next upgrade. The upgrade will
definitely be free to all registered Digital Atmosphere 2000 users,
so there's no reason not to register if you enjoy the program!
By the way, an excellent online version of the Digital Atmosphere
help file is now available on our
documentation page! It's exactly the same
as what's packaged with the software.
Digital Atmosphere for Mac OS:
Work is progressing rapidly on a
Macintosh version of Digital Atmosphere.
Expected beta test start date is still on schedule for approximately
June 23. Some news has been added to the page this week, so you
may want to check it out. The Mac version is expected to be nearly identical to
the Windows version.
Weathergraphs:
The Weathergraphs have been out of stock for over a month and
there are a few dozen people waiting on their copies. I plan to deliver
a large batch of Weathergraphs to Dallas this weekend and they'll be
shipped the following Monday.
Weatherwise article:
I am writing a column in
Weatherwise
magazine starting in the July/August issue called
"You Be The Forecaster". This will give you a chance to
try your hand at analyzing weather maps for fronts and weather
systems and compare it to a solved map. Unfortunately as part
of the contract I could only get two half-page panels for each
part of the article, but the article will have an official
site located on my
You Be The Forecaster page which will
have content that I couldn't fit into the magazine. Enjoy!
-- Tim Vasquez
FAQ revised
(2/11/01) -- Our Digital Atmosphere FAQ has been
revised and updated. As always you can find it at
http://www.weathergraphics.com/faq.htm .
Meteogram for Davis station users
(2/10/01) -- Users of Davis weather stations (the
Davis Monitor II and Wizard III) will be happy to
hear about our new
Meteogram software.
It's freeware and it works in conjunction
with the Davis Weatherlink (PCLink4) software to
produce detailed graphs that can be automatically
upload to your web server (instructions included).
For more info and to download, head to our
Meteogram page!
DA2000 V1.0a available!
(1/22/01) -- Two items are now available for Digital
Atmosphere users:
The V1.0a release of Digital Atmosphere is available:
--
da2000.exe (10 MB) --
full and complete version.
--
da2000p.exe (1.4 MB) --
upgrade patch for any DA2000 version.
What are the changes compared to the original
DA2000 release? It eliminates the problem with
"random" screen blots reported by a few users,
it adds a sleep command to scripting, there
are numerous enhancements to the script scheduler,
an "Import" command for maps/images is added,
there is better tweaking of maps generated by
lat/long, better caching of basemaps (bug fixes),
full corrections to vorticity and divergence
contours, divergence is now recalibrated to
read in 10-6 m-2,
a bug that prevents scripting wind grids/streamlines
is fixed, problems with Alt- shortcuts are fixed,
print capabilities are restored, and much more!
Digital Atmosphere 2000 FAQ --
this revised FAQ, made especially for Digital
Atmosphere 2000, is "required reading" for all
users since it's packed with great info.
However it's slightly outdated now since many
of the bugs listed in it have been fixed in
the new V1.0a release.
WX-SOFTWARE --
This group has been getting very active in the
past few weeks, and
you'll find quick solutions to most of your
problems here, as well as great tips and ideas
by other members and instant news of new upgrades.
There were 74 messages alone last month.
Digital Atmosphere 2000 released!!
Weather map for midnight on the morning
of Digital Atmosphere 2000's debut, showing
photoreal terrain, NMC fonts, and imported
frontal positions!
|
Tropical cyclone Sam, 1200Z 8 Dec 2000,
showing impressive streamlines across northwest
Australia. Thanks to Peter Creswick.
|
(12/4/00) -- After almost a year in the works,
Digital Atmosphere 2000, a major upgrade
to the longtime Digital Atmosphere software
series, was released on Monday, December 4.
To download it or get more information, head to our
Digital Atmosphere page.
Among the new features are photorealistic topography,
plotting of sea surface data, NMC/NCEP fonts, 3-D atmosphere,
an EMWIN ingest engine, convective outlook imports,
roaming sounding, NESDIS SATOB satellite wind imports,
vastly improved help, gradient fill color customization,
powerful scripting capability, customizable upper air plot models,
wind streamlines, frontal plots, a toolbox for drawing georeferenced
fronts and features, 1000-500 mb thickness analysis,
enhancements for the EMWIN datastream (including upper air import),
mapmaking enhancements, improved isentropic analysis, and more!
|
December news!
|
(12/4/00) -- Here's the latest news to keep you
updated!
* Digital Atmosphere 2000 (DA2000)
has been completed and is available for downloads
from our
Digital Atmosphere page.
CD-ROMs are currently in production and will be
shipped to those awaiting CD copies later this week.
*
Weather Forecasting Handbook has
completed the proof stage and is being printed
this week. We expect to have a large number of
copies shipped to us from Atlanta later this week
and the copies will be in stock by December 5.
This reprint is a massive update and
is printed as a 7 x 10" book
with true binding, color cover, and offset print quality,
numbering 166 pp. The price will remain the same.
News will be posted here when it starts shipping.
Orders are being accepted.
* We're gearing up for holiday sales and
stocking our inventories.
Looking for gift ideas for
a weather buff?
We recommend one of four items:
the chart
Weathergraph,
the book
Weather Forecasting Handbook,
the video
The Art of Storm Chasing,
and the software program
Digital Atmosphere.
Use your credit card and place your online order
here for quick service!
|
Global Tracks V3.1 added
(8/23/00) -- Global Tracks V3.1 has been released and is available from our
Global Tracks page.
It includes the following changes since the V3.0 release in July 2000:
Updated direction and distance procedures.
Added manual input of storm warnings
(currently in testing phase).
Added Statute Miles as an added output to all distance procedures.
Added Proxy server support.
Created an interface to see the historical database files.
Added a feature to view only current storms in the download window.
You can also select to download a list of past storms for the season.
Added High resolution maps for various locations around the world.
Added HURRCON / COR output in the tools menu.
Added JPEG support.
New forecasting program added!
(8/17/00) -- We are pleased to announce the addition
of
WXSIM to our product
line! This is a sophisticated single-station
forecasting model that offers unprecedented
capabilities for forecasting temperature, dewpoint,
clouds, and more. It may not be the ETA model, but
its capabilities are impressive.
Head to our
WXSIM page to
find out more.
Canadian weather service begins offering radar
(7/22/00) -- Environment Canada, which manages Canada's weather
data and forecasting efforts, has begun offering near-real-time
radar imagery from its sites across much of the nation.
They can be accessed at
http://weather.ec.gc.ca/radar/index_e.shtml .
The radar page represents a significant step forward in Canada's
policy regarding free government radar data. Until this summer,
Environment Canada posted live data from only one site with
other sites intentionally delayed by several hours.
NEW ITEM: 1996-1999 Surface Data!
Have you wanted to look at detailed surface charts
during the past few years but forgot to capture
the data?
Our new 1996-1999 CD-ROM contains almost 3000 megs of
original METAR reports (including remarks). The disc
covers 9/96 to 12/99. Since this data is collected from
our archives, we can't guarantee you'll find the
data you need: much of 1996 and 1997 set contains
the Southern Plains only (1998 and 1999 are complete
U.S. including AK and HI), and the disc has about 50%
probability of
containing data for a given time (we didn't capture all
time periods). Check before you buy -- a full
breakdown of available times can be found
here.
A sample file for 4/23/99 at 17Z is
here.
The data is readily
importable into Digital Atmosphere, WeatherGraphix,
and other analysis programs for excellent maps.
The disc is only $49.95. To order it,
use our
secure server or call
us at (888) 388-0070.
(4/3/00)
|
Articles
Weird radar identifiers --
so why is Tulsa's radar INX and Los Angeles' radar
VTX? This article explains it all!
Spyware --
chances are you have spyware on your computer. We did.
Find out more about it, how to remove it, and how the
removal could speed up your Internet connection.
Tim vs. PCGRIDDS --
notes and comments about painstaking efforts to tame an
interesting NWS model viewer.
Weather Symbol Reference Sheet --
summarizes all those symbols you see plotted in weather
maps. Also see the sheet for
cloud symbols.
Both are extracted from our
Weathergraph chart.
Tim's Internet Picks --
Tired of weather? Take a look at these interesting
links.
Reading a forecast discussion --
ever wanted to know how to read a SFD but weren't
sure what it all meant? Learn here.
Weather Station Identifiers --
a great resource for finding out more about weather
stations and their identifiers. Software downloads too!
|
|
|
X-Originating-IP: [203.2.32.121]
From: "Dave Ellem"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Possible Funnel Sighting in NE NSW
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 12:03:43 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Jul 2001 02:03:43.0985 (UTC) FILETIME=[E27D7610:01C105BF]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Everyone,
I climbed up on the roof earlier to look for cb's off the coast. No luck in
that sense, but when I turned around to look to the WNW, this is what I saw:
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0706de01.jpg
Fortuenatley I took my digi up on the roof with me. I got one quick pic, and
raced downstairs to let Michael Bath know on ICQ as he has pretty much the
same view as me, and by the time I had gotten outside for another pic it had
disappated to this:
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0706de02.jpg
These photos were taken around 11.30am. The strange thing is that the funnel
is attached to quite a small cloud. Although a fair way away, there was no
real rotation obsevered. MB said he saw another one that didn't look to
convincing to the right of this one a few minutes later. Anyone got any idea
of what may have caused this very sus looking cloud?
Thanks
Dave Ellem
Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 11:52:00 +1000
From: Matthew Smith
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WEATHER: Storms off NSW Coast
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Jul 2001 01:57:38.0568 (UTC) FILETIME=[08AF4080:01C105BF]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Harold and everyone
I saw these early this morning off the coast, and on AM radio there was static
every 3-5 seconds off Newcastle... Wish I had gotten up before daylight to see
the show...
I will be up in Armidale with a few other QLD and NSW people over the weekend,
hoping for some snow overnight tonight and tomorrow morning to make the drive
more interesting.
Matt Smith
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
Harald Richter wrote:
> Good morning,
>
> I am surprised that nobody has mentioned the line of fairly
> active thunderstorms just off the entire length of the NSW coast.
> The leading edge of the upper-level cold pool is overspreading
> warm SSTs (~20 C) here, resulting in the best electric show that we've
> had for weeks (months?). The SSY (upstream) sounding is moist adiabatic
> up to the tropopause around 350 hPa. Putting a 20/20 optimistic
> surface parcel (assumed in equilibrium with the average SSTs) under
> that profile delivers a fair amount of CAPE, possibly several
> thousand J/kg using eyeball technology. Flow aloft is moderate,
> not entirely excluding an isolated embedded supercell in that line.
>
> Cheers, Harald
>
> --
> --------------------------------
> Harald Richter
> BMRC
> PO Box 1289K
> Melbourne VIC 3001
> Australia
> ph: +61 3 9669 4501
> fax: +61 3 9669 4660
> email: h.richter at bom.gov.au
> url: soon(ish)
> --------------------------------
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: SHELDON Bill
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'"
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Cold Weather and Cars...
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 10:05:53 +1000
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2448.0)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Anthony
I lived in Armidale for 5 years, and Canada for 7.
I would definitely put (good qualtiy) anti freeze into my radiator as the
temps in Armidale regulary go below zero overnight.
You might get away with not bothering about putting anything in the window
washers, but Canadians and skiers here do - not antifreeze, but either metho
(maybe 10%) or many washer additives will drop the freezing point
sufficiently - some specifically advertise that they do.
Cheers
Bill Sheldon
ATSIC NHIC
(03) 9285 7244 / 0438 964756
> ----------
> From: Anthony Cornelius[SMTP:cyclone at bigpond.net.au]
> Reply To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Sent: Thursday, 5 July 2001 4:40 PM
> To: Australian Weather Mailing List
> Subject: aus-wx: Cold Weather and Cars...
>
> Hi all,
>
> Excuse the ignorance here (can you tell I'm a Brisbanite?) I'm going to
> Armidale for a few days tomorrow, and I was wondering about two things:
>
> a) Do I need to add anti-freeze to the radiator
> b) Anti-freeze to the wiper washer fluid?
>
> If so - what type of anti-freeze, and how much do I put in?
>
> Thanks!
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.2.32.121]
From: "Dave Ellem"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Possible Funnel Sighting in NE NSW now with CB!!
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 12:24:54 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Jul 2001 02:24:54.0501 (UTC) FILETIME=[D7C6D150:01C105C2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone,
Now a Cb has developed right over the area where the funnel was sighted:
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0706de03.jpg
It looks like it may just slip past W of Lismore now, but I will keep you
posted. Thunder can now be heard from the cells off the coast now as well.
Wonderful sound to hear!!!!
Dave
>From: "Dave Ellem"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Possible Funnel Sighting in NE NSW
>Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 12:03:43 +1000
>
>Hi Everyone,
>I climbed up on the roof earlier to look for cb's off the coast. No luck in
>that sense, but when I turned around to look to the WNW, this is what I
>saw:
>http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0706de01.jpg
>Fortuenatley I took my digi up on the roof with me. I got one quick pic,
>and
>raced downstairs to let Michael Bath know on ICQ as he has pretty much the
>same view as me, and by the time I had gotten outside for another pic it
>had
>disappated to this:
>http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0706de02.jpg
>These photos were taken around 11.30am. The strange thing is that the
>funnel
>is attached to quite a small cloud. Although a fair way away, there was no
>real rotation obsevered. MB said he saw another one that didn't look to
>convincing to the right of this one a few minutes later. Anyone got any
>idea
>of what may have caused this very sus looking cloud?
>Thanks
>
>
>Dave Ellem
>Wollongbar,
>Northern Rivers,
>NE NSW
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>message.
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
_________________________________________________________________________
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 12:42:41 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List ,
aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith
Subject: aus-wx: TS Utor - Hong Kong update from Phil.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Here are some more emails from Phil in Hong Kong.
Regards,
Carl.
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 07:43:59 +0800
From: "Phil Smith"
G'day from wet HK
At 23:40 last night the HKO changed the Typhoon Signal to Eight (North
West Gale Force Winds). Note that I now have commenced a page at
http://www.drdisk.com.hk/utor.htm which is repeating the contents of our
e-mails until I can write up a more coherent report.
During the night I didn't hear much of note except for a few crashes
which were presumably people's pot-plants that hadn't been taken in
hitting our air-con on their way to the ground.
At 22:30 it was almost calm and the river looked like a mirror - hardly a
ripple. There were a few significant windy periods during the night but
they didn't sound like Gale force.
The sea level here is now up by one metre and the HKO is warning that it
might be up by three metres later today so all people in low-lying
villages are moving their belongings to higher floors in case of flooding.
A (live television) report from Tai Po (12 Km North West of here) at
07:20 says that winds are now gale force there and it is raining very
heavily. Here the wind does not seem to be gale force, but the rain is
varying between a medium drizzle and really bucketing down in frequently
changing waves.
Outside my window I can see that the sea level has risen far enough to
completely flood over the fences surrounding all low lying footpaths,
cycleways and parks. Motor roadways, however are all built to be above
any known flood levels and are several metres higher.
As the rain seems to be easing right now, I might go down to the river
bank shortly for a look.
I cannot get any HKO references on the Internet at present but an HKO
spokesman on TV just said that the winds were expected to get much worse
today and that everybody should stay indoors.
Almost all busses have been cancelled and the railways are running at
reduced headway. All trams and the peak tram (funicular railway) are
cancelled and of course all ferry services are cancelled. The airport is
still operating as normal, but many flights are cancelled or delayed.
All schools, offices, businesses, etc. are closed.
Now as I type at 07:41, there is only a slight breeze here in Shatin.
More later.
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 09:37:20 +0800
From: "Phil Smith"
Utor has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm by all agencies.
I have just come back from an attempted walk. My usual exercise walk
along the bank of the Shing Mun river (tidal) is impossible this
morning. The water level is 60 cm above the footpath and 70 cm above the
cycleway.
The watermark shows it has been 1 metre above the footpath and 110 cm
above the cycleway at some stage in the last few hours.
Weather is currently like a very heavy drizzle and just a slight breeze.
Number Eight still hoisted.
It seems from satellite pictures that Utor is shrinking very rapidly.
Looking on the map it appears to be going ashore about 100 Km East of
here. JTWCs prediction of a direct hit looks to be a little off.
Victoria Harbour on live television a few minutes ago had waves of about
two metres breaking over the waterfront at Wanchai and it appeared to be
very windy there. Still barely a breeze in sheltered Sha Tin and no
doubt the HKO in the middle of built up Kowloon will be well sheltered
also.
I still cannot get onto the HKO site which is obviously overloaded.
This town has around two million registered Internet users, and I reckon
they are all trying to look at HKO.
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 09:49:47 +0800
From: "Phil Smith"
Hi all.
I have now set up a page at
http://www.drdisk.com.hk/utor.htm
to keep track of Typhoon Utor.
Here we still have Typhoon Signal Eight (North West Gale Force Winds)
hoisted but the highest gust recorded here in sheltered Sha Tin has been
no more than 18 km/h!
I shall keep copying my e-mails to Carl to my Utor page and hopefully
make time to write up a decent report later.
The Internet is absolutely inundated here so getting information is
actually quite difficult. It will ease off once the typhoon signals are
lowered unless the weather stays really bad.
Phil
<><
Phil Smith
Director
Doctor Disk Limited
4B Imperial Heights
Belair Gardens, Shatin, NT
Hong Kong S.A.R.
People's Republic of China
Phone: 9522 7756, 2646 4672
E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Internet: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Typhoon Information: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 13:24:47 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1311 on Friday the 6th of July 2001
This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
Northern Rivers
Mid North Coast north of Kempsey
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of
these are expected to be severe bringing large hailstones and damaging
winds.
----
Quite a line of activity out to my W and extending down to the S. Weaker
stuff to the NW and N at 1.25pm.
regards, Michael
At 12:24 06/07/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi everyone,
>Now a Cb has developed right over the area where the funnel was sighted:
>http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0706de03.jpg
>It looks like it may just slip past W of Lismore now, but I will keep you
>posted. Thunder can now be heard from the cells off the coast now as well.
>Wonderful sound to hear!!!!
>
>Dave
=============================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
McLeans Ridges http://australiasevereweather.com/
NE NSW Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
ASWA Secretary http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
=============================================================
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Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 13:28:51 +1000
From: Peter Creswick
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en]C-CCK-MCD NSCPCD47 (Win95; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Possible Funnel Sighting in NE NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Radar shows a line of cells Coffs - Grafton - Casino active
(particularly Grafton - Casino) at 1pm / 1:10pm
Dave Ellem wrote:
>
> Hi Everyone,
> I climbed up on the roof earlier to look for cb's off the coast. No luck in
> that sense, but when I turned around to look to the WNW, this is what I saw:
> http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0706de01.jpg
> Fortuenatley I took my digi up on the roof with me. I got one quick pic, and
> raced downstairs to let Michael Bath know on ICQ as he has pretty much the
> same view as me, and by the time I had gotten outside for another pic it had
> disappated to this:
> http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0706de02.jpg
> These photos were taken around 11.30am. The strange thing is that the funnel
> is attached to quite a small cloud. Although a fair way away, there was no
> real rotation obsevered. MB said he saw another one that didn't look to
> convincing to the right of this one a few minutes later. Anyone got any idea
> of what may have caused this very sus looking cloud?
> Thanks
>
> Dave Ellem
> Wollongbar,
> Northern Rivers,
> NE NSW
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
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From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: STA: NE NSW
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 13:39:25 +1000
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1311 on Friday the 6th of July 2001
This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
Northern Rivers
Mid North Coast north of Kempsey
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some
of these are expected to be severe bringing large hailstones and
damaging winds.
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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From: "islesit"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: NSW STA
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 13:59:54 +1000
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Dear Michael,
New to the forum, but ive been a keen weather watcher all my life.
Especially like spring when we get all these great storms rolling through.
Now about 2 months back 4 tornadoes were seen together commencing over the
water near coffs harbour and then travelling a distance inland. I didn't see
them as it was gone by the time I got there but they were reported on the
radio.
Best wishes
Ian Isles
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Michael Bath
Sent: Friday, 6 July 2001 1:25 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1311 on Friday the 6th of July 2001
This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
Northern Rivers
Mid North Coast north of Kempsey
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of
these are expected to be severe bringing large hailstones and damaging
winds.
----
Quite a line of activity out to my W and extending down to the S. Weaker
stuff to the NW and N at 1.25pm.
regards, Michael
At 12:24 06/07/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi everyone,
>Now a Cb has developed right over the area where the funnel was sighted:
>http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0706de03.jpg
>It looks like it may just slip past W of Lismore now, but I will keep you
>posted. Thunder can now be heard from the cells off the coast now as well.
>Wonderful sound to hear!!!!
>
>Dave
=============================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
McLeans Ridges http://australiasevereweather.com/
NE NSW Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
ASWA Secretary http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
=============================================================
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Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 14:26:15 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath
Subject: aus-wx: RE: Coffs Harbour waterspouts WAS: NSW STA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Ian,
Check these out:
20th February 2001:
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/media/20010220coffs.jpg
and
1sy May 2001:
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/media/20010501coffs-p1.jpg
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/media/20010501coffs-p5.jpg
I guess it was these second ones.
cheers, Michael
At 13:59 06/07/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>Dear Michael,
>
>New to the forum, but ive been a keen weather watcher all my life.
>Especially like spring when we get all these great storms rolling through.
>
>Now about 2 months back 4 tornadoes were seen together commencing over the
>water near coffs harbour and then travelling a distance inland. I didn't see
>them as it was gone by the time I got there but they were reported on the
>radio.
>
>Best wishes
>
>Ian Isles
=============================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
McLeans Ridges http://australiasevereweather.com/
NE NSW Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
ASWA Secretary http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
=============================================================
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussie"
To: "weather list"
Subject: aus-wx: How'd I fair?
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 14:46:52 +1000
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Lindsay wrote:
Nice little cover. There's 5mm in the gauge this morning but I'd say about
1mm or so would have been snow. It's still around 0C at 7:15am with a nice
dusting of snow around. Hope we get some more. How did other spots fair?
I didn't fair as well as I thought I was going to. A whole 1.4mm out of it.
It has been quite dark here today but so far not even a hint of a drop of
rain :-(
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
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From: "Kevin Phyland"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Wyche weather....
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 15:17:27 +1000
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Hi every1,
A massive (and much appreciated) 11 mm. in the gauge for the 24 till 9 a.m.
Doesn't look like much more here to me... :((
Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
P.S. If it snowed in the Grampians the air was a LOT colder than here!
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From: "Steven Williams"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow in Sydney????
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 17:22:37 +1200
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Short answer is no.
Wet hail can look alot like sleet. As for reports pre 1900's, should we
believe them.
----- Original Message -----
From:
To:
Sent: Friday, July 06, 2001 9:41 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Snow in Sydney????
>
> Dear All
>
> As I have only been in Sydney for about 3 years I'm unsure of the long
term
> weather patterns or records. Has there ever been any reported case of snow
> in SYdney or inner suburbs? Or is it just a myth?? What abour sleet? I guy
> here reckons that we could get sleet in Sydney, but I don't think he's
very
> well informed. Whats everyones thoughts??
>
> Simon
>
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From: "Patrick Tobin"
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: How'd I fair?
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 05:19:05
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There is a fair bit of snow on the ranges south of Canberra - down to around
1000m. Been raining here most of the day - fairly light and when I have
checked, the temp has been 5 or below. (Prob max of no more than 6 today).
Patrick
>From: "Bussie"
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>Lindsay wrote:
>Nice little cover. There's 5mm in the gauge this morning but I'd say about
>1mm or so would have been snow. It's still around 0C at 7:15am with a nice
>dusting of snow around. Hope we get some more. How did other spots fair?
>I didn't fair as well as I thought I was going to. A whole 1.4mm out of it.
>It has been quite dark here today but so far not even a hint of a drop of
>rain :-(
>Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
>
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Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 15:40:11 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List ,
aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith
Subject: aus-wx: Typhoon Utor - Hong Kong update from Phil.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All.
Here is the latest from Phil in Hong Kong.
Regards,
Carl.
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 10:40:19 +0800
From: "Phil Smith"
JTWC has upgraded it to a Typhoon again, HKO has upgraded it to a Severe
Tropical Storm, and I cannot get JMA.
The Typhoon Signal Eight (South West Gales) was hoisted by the HKO at
09:40 this morning.
Note that HKO has four different Number Eight signals for NE, NW, SE and
SW Gales. We have now had three of the four hoisted during this storm.
During the 10:30 Typhoon report on TV we saw pictures of Central
(downtown Hong Kong) with about 30-60 cm water covering the streets.
Still relatively calm but very wet here. As the winds are now from the
South West, we are sheltered by the mountains.
Everything is closed down so apart from economic losses to businesses
etc. the typhoon is having very little effect.
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Oberon Snow
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, "Lindsay Pearce" ,
Matt Smith , "Laurier" ,
Ross Wilson
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Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 16:51:38 +1000
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Hi all.
Snow is falling again in Oberon, started 5 min ago.. 4.45pm. Quite heavy
snow was told.
Dave
Bathurst
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Friday Oberon Snow Chase
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 15:15:11 +1000
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Hi all,
Just a quick note to say we saw great snow out Oberon way this morning. I've
got some great photos. Best snow was at Mount Trickett where it was in the
10 to 15cm range and very dry/powdery. We got caught down a side road with 6
to 8cm on the road, although nothing that a bit of shovelling couldn't fix.
Not much falling snow when we were there but good snow in the township and
to the south.
Will write up more of a story for my site when I get time.
Cheers,
Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
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From: "Ben Quinn"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: More July storms!
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 16:48:30 +1000
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Storms in July here are quite rare and this is my second thunderday this
week! While the storms today were low topped the updrafts took on a boiling
appearance at times, and considering a grunty coastal shower is a bonus at
this time of the year today was quite exciting
Some sus lowerings under a developing Cb just off the coast mid afternoon -
not much movement in them though
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/lowerings.jpg
and as the cell moved further offshore and intensified the updrafts look
quite nice
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/offshore.jpg
Also a solid storm near Brisbane earlier on
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/south1.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/south2.jpg
....i'm ready for some more
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Snow in the central tablelands again?
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 17:24:08 +1000
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Latest LAPS and GASP 00z are now looking good for the Central Tablelands
over the weekend. Seems to be some moisture there too with nice thicknesses
below 540.
Lets hope it comes off although I've had a good day in the snow today :)
Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
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From: "Simon Angell"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Canberra weather
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 19:30:46 +1000
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Well there has been steady rain in tuggernong area all day but cleared up in
my area (belconnen). Max temp According to my thermo was 5.9*c at 3:35 at the
moment it reads 1.7*c and TWC has 3.9*c (for canberra AWS and im around 25kms
west from there).
Chances of snow tonite in west canberra has decreased since the cloud mass
moved south and is now posistioned over south canberra and from my last view of
it just berfore sunset it was dark grey so i suspect heavy rain periods
overnight and descent snow on the ranges.
Also just before sunset i got a clear view of the fire trail/powerline
clearing which cuts through the brindabella's towards wee jasper and it seemed
to have a decent snow covering and for all the canberra WX readers you should
all know what the trail looks like and for those of you that dont know let me
describe to my best ability... when it snows it looks like a huge ski run. pity
its not overly accessible.
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 19:42:33 +1000
From: Andrew Miskelly
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Friday (Black Springs) Snow Chase
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I also drove from Taralga to Black Springs which is SSW of Oberon at
1210 metres. There was great snow there and most of the way up from the
Abecrombie River. It was very foggy at Black Springs while I was there
(I haven't seen any falling snow yet this weekend though) which before
now I have only seen in the snowy mountains.
When it happens there it's often because of oragraphics but here it was
allowed because it was so still.
Well worth the drive.
It's 2 and breezy from the west here at Taralga at the moment with
patchy cloud around.
Andrew.
Lindsay Pearce wrote:
>
> Hi all,
>
> Just a quick note to say we saw great snow out Oberon way this morning. I've
> got some great photos. Best snow was at Mount Trickett where it was in the
> 10 to 15cm range and very dry/powdery. We got caught down a side road with 6
> to 8cm on the road, although nothing that a bit of shovelling couldn't fix.
> Not much falling snow when we were there but good snow in the township and
> to the south.
>
> Will write up more of a story for my site when I get time.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: violin at lisp.com.au
> Blackheath Weather:
> http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 06 Jul 2001 20:34:32 +1000
From: Andrew Miskelly
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.77 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Latest AVN!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
The 06Z run of AVN for today (the 6th) shows an interesting development
- a deeper cold pool right over the Blue Mountains by 21Z tomorrow
(Sunday morning our time). With the low off the coast by that time this
could lead to very heavy snow falls for that area.
Sadly for me, the same chart shows the trailing edge of the 540
thickness disappearing off to the east of Taralga.
Very interesting...
Andrew.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Yole"
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List"
Subject: aus-wx: Snow in the Grampians
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 21:22:19 +1000
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Hey all,
Looks like the snow in the Grampians yesterday was a major possibility. I
have just spoken to a Halls Gap police officer who had a report published in
the Wimmera Mail Times today. The article is as follows:
Motorists driving to Mt. William risked ice and possible snow on the steep
road to the Grampians peak, Halls Gap police said yesterday.
Acting Sergent Mark Connell said there was sleet and ice on the road
yesterday. "It was almost heading towards snow," Sgt Connell said.
He believed snow overnight was a possibility and warned motorists to be
careful on Mt. William Road.
The Bureau of Meteorology forecast a low pressure system would cross the
Wimmera overnight.
PaulY.
Paul Yole
Joint State Rep - Vic ASWA
Communications Officer - Murtoa CFA
0418 369 256
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\winmail.dat"
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 22:21:35 +1000 (EST)
From: Robert Goler
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: Australian Weather Mailing List
Subject: aus-wx: Chase out around Winchelsea
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all
I headed out west of Melbourne looking for some action, and although I
didn't reach my target area, I saw some nice convection (well I was happy
at least). Here's what I saw:
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_07_06/today.html
I've supplied 3 movies which can be played/downloaded by clicking on 3
images. I'll be the first to admit that the movies aren't all that
spectacular (ie no hail/lightning/tornadoes), so if you have download
restrictions, then perhaps give these a miss. I've just made them for me
to practice so that when the real stuff comes around, all teething
problems would have been taken care of.
Cheers
--
Robert A. Goler
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia
ph. +61 3 9905 4424
email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
--
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Latest AVN!
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 22:24:25 +1000
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Will watch that one with interest, Andrew. My gut feeling is maybe a little
more snow/sleet and then rain later in the weekend for us. The positioning
of the low off the coast as you suggest, will be critical for us if indeed
the cold pool is over us at this time, too.
Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "Andrew Miskelly"
To:
Sent: Friday, July 06, 2001 8:34 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Latest AVN!
> Hi all,
>
> The 06Z run of AVN for today (the 6th) shows an interesting development
> - a deeper cold pool right over the Blue Mountains by 21Z tomorrow
> (Sunday morning our time). With the low off the coast by that time this
> could lead to very heavy snow falls for that area.
>
> Sadly for me, the same chart shows the trailing edge of the 540
> thickness disappearing off to the east of Taralga.
>
> Very interesting...
>
> Andrew.
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: surface obs plotting program
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 10:37:58 -0700
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Hi,
I downloaded that software and retreive the worldwide data but it won't
plot. It teels me there is no data for my region or for the observation time
i chose. Is there a way of knowing what data you have? Seems like th eold
fashioned way, get the charts off the web, is probbaly more reliable??
Cheers, Lyle
----- Original Message -----
From: "Laurier Williams"
To:
Sent: Thursday, July 05, 2001 4:08 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: surface obs plotting program
> Lyle,
>
> I've used Tim Vasquez's Digital Atmosphere for several years and believe
> it's the best. Details at http://www.weathergraphics.com/
>
> You use data from Florida State University and several other sites, and
can
> have a plotted, analysed map ready ~20 mins after obs time.
>
> Laurier
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Lyle Pakula
> > Sent: Friday, 06 July, 2001 7:55 AM
> > To: aus-wx
> > Subject: aus-wx: surface obs plotting program
> >
> >
> > Hi,
> >
> > I know i have asked this before but recevied no reply, so i'm not sure
if
> > maybe the message didn't get thorugh or something ;/
> >
> > Anyway, it's really frustrating not having the surface obs plotted so to
> > pick out surface lows etc. Does anyone know of any resource, software,
> > anything, that could do this?
> >
> > It would be much appreciated!
> >
> > Thanks, Lyle
> >
> >
> > |
> > - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- -- - -
> > |
> > | Graduate Research Assistant /\
> > . Department of Atmospheric Science _ / \
> > . Colorado State University / \ / \
> > ph: +1 (970) 491 7785 / \/~~~~~~\/\
> > . fax: +1 (970) 491 8166 /~~~~/ / \
> > email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu / / / \
> > web: http://reef.atmos.colostate.edu/lyle/ / \
> > .
> >
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> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: Storms in Lithuania
Date: Sat, 7 Jul 2001 09:26:58 +1000
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Every year I get an email from Blair Trewin from some odd part of the
world (chasing severe weather by any means of transport he can get hold
of ) ... see below:-
...........................................................
Jane,
Another of my annual reports from the other side of the world - this
year it's Lithuania.
Ended up (by accident - I was on a bus) on the back of quite an
impressive storm this afternoon in western Lithuania - no hail or severe
winds, but very heavy rain at times. On each of the last three days,
storms have formed near the Baltic coast around midday and moved slowly
inland; whilst I don't have the data to confirm it, I suspect they are
forming on the seabreeze front (with Baltic SST's probably around 17 and
daytime temperatures inland in the high 20s, there have been fairly
solid seabreezes each day).
This set-up should continue for a couple of days yet; no idea if there's
any publicly available radar coverage (try the Latvian or Lithuanian
met. services via the WMO page), but if there is it could be fun
watching. Most of the action is between 1300 and 1600 local time (add 8
hours for Melbourne).
Blair
...........................................................
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms in Lithuania
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 23:43:32 +0100
Organization: Chaotic
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he should have been in western britain earlier on this week...
http://www.eclipse.co.uk/wradmore/warrensweatherwatch/photos/2001/july4th/4t
hjuly2001.htm
You don't often get superbolts like that on this island....
Les
Les Crossan and Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear 55N 01-30W
les.crossan at virgin.net
www.uksevereweather.org.uk
Wallsend StormCam: www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Sent: Saturday, July 07, 2001 12:26 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Storms in Lithuania
> Every year I get an email from Blair Trewin from some odd part of the
> world (chasing severe weather by any means of transport he can get hold
> of ) ... see below:-
>
> ...........................................................
>
> Jane,
>
> Another of my annual reports from the other side of the world - this
> year it's Lithuania.
>
> Ended up (by accident - I was on a bus) on the back of quite an
> impressive storm this afternoon in western Lithuania - no hail or severe
> winds, but very heavy rain at times. On each of the last three days,
> storms have formed near the Baltic coast around midday and moved slowly
> inland; whilst I don't have the data to confirm it, I suspect they are
> forming on the seabreeze front (with Baltic SST's probably around 17 and
> daytime temperatures inland in the high 20s, there have been fairly
> solid seabreezes each day).
>
> This set-up should continue for a couple of days yet; no idea if there's
> any publicly available radar coverage (try the Latvian or Lithuanian
> met. services via the WMO page), but if there is it could be fun
> watching. Most of the action is between 1300 and 1600 local time (add 8
> hours for Melbourne).
>
> Blair
>
> ...........................................................
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: Virtual stormchase Europe
Date: Sat, 7 Jul 2001 10:40:22 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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and following on from Blair's email........a few links if you are
interested in following the weather in Europe atm
for the big picture - Europe image
http://home.t-online.de/home/wienzek/n16v.html
for lightning in Europe & the UK over a 24 hour period
http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/wz/pics/Rsfloc2.html
For the synoptic analysis of Europe, try the European Aviation Weather
Centre
http://www.phd.nl/aviation/wx/
(check out the links at top left!! - especially the 'Thunderstorm areas'
for the latest convective outlook)
Latvian met service (has english tags on the links)
http://www.meteo.lv/
Click on 'Laika Zinas' then click on 'Satelita attcls' for a satpic.
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 07 Jul 2001 11:45:57 +1000
From: Tony & Damian
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Dark clouds SW of Katoomba
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Looking South West from Katoomba's highest point around 9 am I could see
very very dark low lying clouds. Would this be over the Oberon area?
Does anyone know if there's been snow there this morning as it was
around 2 degrees in Katoomba so snow would be likely?
Damian
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "islesit"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: RE: Coffs Harbour waterspouts WAS: NSW STA
Date: Sat, 7 Jul 2001 11:50:53 +1000
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Thanks that's what they were.
Really appreciate those pics.
Ian
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Michael Bath
Sent: Friday, 6 July 2001 2:26 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: RE: Coffs Harbour waterspouts WAS: NSW STA
Hi Ian,
Check these out:
20th February 2001:
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/media/20010220coffs.jpg
and
1sy May 2001:
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/media/20010501coffs-p1.jpg
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/media/20010501coffs-p5.jpg
I guess it was these second ones.
cheers, Michael
At 13:59 06/07/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>Dear Michael,
>
>New to the forum, but ive been a keen weather watcher all my life.
>Especially like spring when we get all these great storms rolling through.
>
>Now about 2 months back 4 tornadoes were seen together commencing over the
>water near coffs harbour and then travelling a distance inland. I didn't
see
>them as it was gone by the time I got there but they were reported on the
>radio.
>
>Best wishes
>
>Ian Isles
=============================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
McLeans Ridges http://australiasevereweather.com/
NE NSW Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
ASWA Secretary http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
=============================================================
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From: "Paul Rands"