http://australiasevereweather.com/


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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 02:37:33 +1100 (EDT)
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] PICS: Jan25 Vic, Jan26 NSW Chases


Those with too much time on their hands may want to look at some
(ordinary?) pics I took on a couple of chases last week. On Jan 25 I was
around Bendigo, while on Jan 26 I was around the Riverina Hwy in NSW
(Don't ask why!).

http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Pictures/2001/Jan/chase2_3pics.html


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

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Date: Wed, 31 Jan 2001 11:18:08 -0500
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Adelaide 25/1 Springton pic up...

Phil wrote:

> Here's a goodie though.  Barber pole updraft NE of Gumeracha advancing
> ahead of the multicell front.  Looks a bit like some of the LP supercell
> shots i've seen from the states.  Any comments?

Yes, like the LP, the storm is very small and the base does look like it
has good rotation.  Some differences are a rain shaft to the rear in your
pic, if indeed that is the storm rear.  Is it?  Which way, relative to the
pic, is the storm moving?  In the LPs what little precip there is, falls
from the anvil ahead of the updraft location.  Most often the rain is light
but the hail can be large.  Also, the vertical sides and front of the CB
are striated and look like a helix or the "barber pole" as you mentioned. 
BTW, that is one thing we have a general lack of, views from the rear of
the storm where the RFD is located with most supercells.  LPs most often
have little or no apparent downdraft.

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
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Date: Wed, 31 Jan 2001 11:57:14 -0500
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] super cell definitions.

Clyve Herbert. wrote:

> There is often a rather vague line when observing an overshooting severe
> multicell complex and a supercell and then making  a comparison, a single
> photo of  an overshooting multi cell often looks like a supercell,however

This is an excellent observation.  Most supercells begin as organized
multicell cluster storms, often with a flanking line.  If the environmental
shear is sufficent, they will then with time undergo a transformation into
a supercell.  (Sufficent shear is usually seen as greater than about 15 m/s
in the lowest 6 km.  This shear can be created by either directional or
speed shear or a combination therof.  This is true, even if the flow is
unidirectional with height.  But flow that is unidirectional is conducive
to splitting storms with right and left movers being almost mirror image
supercells.)

> from personal study I have found a rather odd structure to true
supercells
> and that's the very short and strong pulse rate within the supercell
often
> appearing as a continuos updraft but careful analysis seems to show
distinct
> rapid pulses.

Again, a good observation.  Our perception of storms is based on what we
use to observe them.  The human eye can often discern much more than the
radar.  (This is why I blieve adequate training can not afford to emphasize
only a single observation tool.  The visual appearence must be emphasized
as well and the relationship among the various sensor viewpoints.)  Not
uncommonly the supercell does have multicell traits.  They may appear more
single cellular in a low level radar scan but the multiple reflectivity
cores and multiple echo tops can be detected aloft with the radar.  When
the time between flanking cell mergers with the updraft is short and radar
volume scans are several minutes apart then on radar, often only an
apparent single cell is descerned.  But, ocasionally even with the eye
there will be no flaking line seen yet the unsteadyness of the updraft can
be detected only at storm summit with the "updraft pulses".  Here you seem
to emphasisze "rapid pulses".  These pulses are often several minutes or
even 10 + minutes apart but occasionally  they may be only 1 to 3 minutes
apart.

> I watched a very interesting video taken by  a fellow storm
> chaser from Brisbane of a night storm southeast of that city,this storm
was
> regarded as a supercell ,the lightning was almost strobe like and
> illuminating the overshoot almost continuously, the top of the overshoot
> showed a very close ribbing affect which may have indicated the very
short
> pulse rate of the updraft,also of interest was the rather uniform spacing
of
> the ribbing separating each pulse. 

I believe the unsteady nature or "updarft udulation" if you will, may
create gravity waves within the storm summit outflow.  At other times these
may actually be cycles of updraft strengthening and weakening.  When that
is occuring, the severe weather at the suface may often then be more
eposodic in nature and hail size will fluctuate accordingly.  (BTW, a point
I failed to make otherwise was that if hail greater than "golf ball" (~ 4.4
cm) in diameter is observed, with a particular storm, then that storm is
almost certainly supercellular.  It seems that the organization that
accompanies the supercellular structure is essential to hail growth greater
than golf ball, e.g., 5 cm or larger.)

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com

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X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 03:51:34 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Ex-TC Terri is now a low in the Gibson Desert.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All.

Ex-TC Terri is now a low in the Gibson Desert.

You will find a plot of all warning positions at :
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/currentmaps.htm.

This one has not been smoothed like the BoM threat map, and shows how
difficult it was for them to pinpoint it at some times.

Regards,
Carl.

Carl Smith.
Gold Coast.
Queensland.
Australia.

email: carls at ace-net.com.au
internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/

For convenient downloadable Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps :
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
For links to current Tropical Cyclone information :
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm


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Date: Wed, 31 Jan 2001 11:25:03 -0700
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Talk about hypocrites

just on a side note - is it necessary to have [aussie-weather] in every
subject line, the old aus-wx or even aw is much more managable. just an
opinion ;)
Lyle

----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, January 30, 2001 6:21 AM
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Talk about hypocrites


> To everyone who has read this - after cooling down a little I apologise
> for my outburst...it's not something I enjoy doing, however I have been
> very annoyed at the current outcome.  I'll be discussing this with Mark
> and Jacob in private (in a much more diplomatic way), so that such
> thoughts are not spilt over onto the list where people may be offended.
>
> As the old saying goes..."Action without thought is fatal, thought
> without action is futile."
>
> Apologies once more.
>
> AC
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
>
>
>


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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 06:24:24 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] PICS: Jan25 Vic, Jan26 NSW Chases

Nothing ordinary about those pics Robert - they're great!!!  Please keep up
the chases & photos!!

Jane

Robert Goler wrote:

> Those with too much time on their hands may want to look at some
> (ordinary?) pics I took on a couple of chases last week. On Jan 25 I was
> around Bendigo, while on Jan 26 I was around the Riverina Hwy in NSW
> (Don't ask why!).
>
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Pictures/2001/Jan/chase2_3pics.html
>
> Cheers
>
> --
>
> Robert A. Goler
>
> E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
>
> --
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com

--

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------



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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 07:15:55 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Sydney rain


Just thought id let people know i have had over 200mm here at my house
in 48 hours in Sydney.

Matt Smith


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Date: Wed, 31 Jan 2001 22:06:27 GMT
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] New hourly AWS reports (and archive!!!) from NSW

The NSW BoM has distinguished itself by putting up an hourly AWS page,
complete with a 48 hour archive -- just click on the name of the
station you want. It's at
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65091.shtml. Thanks to Don White for
unearthing this information.


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://www.australianweathernews.com

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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 09:22:55 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Sydney rain: now North Coast

95mm to 9am at McLeans Ridges (near Lismore), not all that high a figure, 
but Ballina 116, Coffs Harbour 169mm. Many North Coast centres would have 
had 100-150mm so far since the rain started yesterday morning. Flood 
warnings are starting to appear.

It has been really pouring the past 15-20 minutes here, radar is not 
picking it up, though it did show around 7am a upper wind flow change from 
NNW to NNE - quite a critical change which should see some very big totals 
now. Surface winds are fresh from the E.

Michael



At 07:15 01/02/2001 +1100, you wrote:

>Just thought id let people know i have had over 200mm here at my house
>in 48 hours in Sydney.
>
>Matt Smith
>
>
>
>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com

  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================


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Date: Wed, 31 Jan 2001 22:34:55 -0000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] recent rainfall

High i have not posted to the list before, but have been following it 
for a few years now.

I live at an area called Buckendoon which is about 20k south of 
Lismore on the flood plain, half way between Woodburn and Coraki.

To get back to the weather, currently heavy rain, wind east about 
15knts. Rainfall since 0800 on 31/1 96mm to o830 1/2.

Was at the Casino storm, working with SES, covering roofs etc.we were 
called out 2100hrs on the Wednesday night, first job was to cover a 
tile roof partly damaged by two gum trees broken off approx 6 and 8 
feet up (wind now gusting to 25Knts as I type make that 30knt).Then 
to the large two story block of flats totally de-roofedwe decided it 
was two unsafe to attempt any repairs at 1200hrs, particulaly as 
there was still heavy rain and no power so lighting the job was 
difficult, we were stood down at 0200 to return at 0800 the next day.

The next two days had more of the same patching multiple broken 
windows,tile roofs, removing dangerous fallen trees etc.Saw one tree 
near the main street, a mature silky oak with a trunk diameter of 
about 1 metre broken off about 2metres off the ground, with the body 
of the tree abit 50 metres away on an adjacent empty block.

It all looked like straight line damage to me, as there was multiple 
roof damage, some totally de roofed but adjacent trees only minus a 
few small limbs,if any.

I also have a couple of photos of the hail from the storm that went 
through Parramatta last Nov. If any one is interested,They show a 
build up of hail on houses and yards, and the associated fog rising 
in the cold air as it melted while we were driving on the ?hume 
highway leaving Parramatta for Campbeltown.

Keith Dorrell   


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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 10:30:34 +1100 (EDT)
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Re: New hourly AWS reports (and archive!!!) from NSW... & SA


I also found this done for the SA obs at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDO30S02.shtml

On Wed, 31 Jan 2001 wbc at ozemail.com.au wrote:

> The NSW BoM has distinguished itself by putting up an hourly AWS page,
> complete with a 48 hour archive -- just click on the name of the
> station you want. It's at
> http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65091.shtml. Thanks to Don White for
> unearthing this information.
> 
> 

Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 09:16:14 +1000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] rainfall to 9am at Tallai, SEQLD

<x-html>
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</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>Hi All</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>It is still raining steadily here, temp 24.0. The Creek is in minor flood. 
Rainfall to 9am is 116.5</DIV>
<DIV>Tallai is a rural suburb in the Gold Coast hinterland.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Sam</DIV>
<br>

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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 12:19:53 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] very heavy rain NE NSW

Hi all,

After 95mm to 9am we have had a further 80mm !!! in the 3 hours since. 
Other totals to noon include Ballina 50mm, Casino 38mm, Evans Head 35mm.

Winds are strong to gale force from the ESE.

Expect to see major flooding if this keeps up.

regards, Michael

  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================


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From: "T Middleton" <anvil_industries at hotmail.com>
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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 01:27:24 
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] PICS: Jan25 Vic, Jan26 NSW Chases

hi Robert,
these photos are perfectly fine IMO.     :)

T.Middleton.
Anvil Industries
http://www.anvilindustries.com




>From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [aussie-weather] PICS: Jan25 Vic, Jan26 NSW Chases
>Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 02:37:33 +1100 (EDT)
>
>
>Those with too much time on their hands may want to look at some
>(ordinary?) pics I took on a couple of chases last week. On Jan 25 I was
>around Bendigo, while on Jan 26 I was around the Riverina Hwy in NSW
>(Don't ask why!).
>
>http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Pictures/2001/Jan/chase2_3pics.html
>
>
>Cheers
>
>--
>
>Robert A. Goler
>
>E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
>http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
>Department of Mathematics and Statistics
>Monash University
>Clayton, Vic 3800
>Australia
>
>--
>


Cu
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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 12:44:29 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Sydney rain: now North Coast

Hi Michael.
I like your description "not all that high a figure" an example of not all
that high a figure is a storm over Geelong  during the first week of Jan
2001 that banged and crashed all night and then gave a 24hr total of
1.3mm!,please send us some of your puny rain totals!!!!!! regards Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 01, 2001 9:22 AM
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Sydney rain: now North Coast


> 95mm to 9am at McLeans Ridges (near Lismore), not all that high a figure,
> but Ballina 116, Coffs Harbour 169mm. Many North Coast centres would have
> had 100-150mm so far since the rain started yesterday morning. Flood
> warnings are starting to appear.
>
> It has been really pouring the past 15-20 minutes here, radar is not
> picking it up, though it did show around 7am a upper wind flow change from
> NNW to NNE - quite a critical change which should see some very big totals
> now. Surface winds are fresh from the E.
>
> Michael
>
>
>
> At 07:15 01/02/2001 +1100, you wrote:
>
> >Just thought id let people know i have had over 200mm here at my house
> >in 48 hours in Sydney.
> >
> >Matt Smith
> >
> >
> >
> >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
>
>   =============================================================
>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   =============================================================
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
>
>
>


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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 12:46:33 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] recent rainfall

Hi Keith.
Nice to here from you keep sending your weather messages.regards Clyve H.
----- Original Message ----- 
From: <keithd at lis.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 01, 2001 9:34 AM
Subject: [aussie-weather] recent rainfall


> High i have not posted to the list before, but have been following it 
> for a few years now.
> 
> I live at an area called Buckendoon which is about 20k south of 
> Lismore on the flood plain, half way between Woodburn and Coraki.
> 
> To get back to the weather, currently heavy rain, wind east about 
> 15knts. Rainfall since 0800 on 31/1 96mm to o830 1/2.
> 
> Was at the Casino storm, working with SES, covering roofs etc.we were 
> called out 2100hrs on the Wednesday night, first job was to cover a 
> tile roof partly damaged by two gum trees broken off approx 6 and 8 
> feet up (wind now gusting to 25Knts as I type make that 30knt).Then 
> to the large two story block of flats totally de-roofedwe decided it 
> was two unsafe to attempt any repairs at 1200hrs, particulaly as 
> there was still heavy rain and no power so lighting the job was 
> difficult, we were stood down at 0200 to return at 0800 the next day.
> 
> The next two days had more of the same patching multiple broken 
> windows,tile roofs, removing dangerous fallen trees etc.Saw one tree 
> near the main street, a mature silky oak with a trunk diameter of 
> about 1 metre broken off about 2metres off the ground, with the body 
> of the tree abit 50 metres away on an adjacent empty block.
> 
> It all looked like straight line damage to me, as there was multiple 
> roof damage, some totally de roofed but adjacent trees only minus a 
> few small limbs,if any.
> 
> I also have a couple of photos of the hail from the storm that went 
> through Parramatta last Nov. If any one is interested,They show a 
> build up of hail on houses and yards, and the associated fog rising 
> in the cold air as it melted while we were driving on the ?hume 
> highway leaving Parramatta for Campbeltown.
> 
> Keith Dorrell   
> 
> 
> 
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
> 
> 
> 


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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 13:02:40 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Tropical stuff.

Hi all tropos.
An interesting splotch west of Cairns this morning almost has the
characteristics of a tropical MCS it will be interesting to see what happens
if this system gets out over the Coral sea as it is showing weak
organization,also former TC Terri now well inland in WA was showing a weak
centre at 1000hrs a feature it has,nt shown as a  TC regards Clyve Herbert.


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From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Subject: aus-wx: Interesting articles...
Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 13:04:38 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Hi every1,

Found some interesting articles while browsing the NASA site...

For those interested in the ongoing global 'warming' debate, this might 
provide food for thought:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast18jan_1.htm?list81975

...and for those interested in VLF/lightning emissions this article is a 
good read:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast19jan_1.htm?list81975

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 13:16:30 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Strahan Weather

Hello Everyone

Just been listening to local Bom on the radio. Tasmania had a average
increase in temp of 1C for January with drier than normal from NW coast
west around to SE coast.
In Strahan we have had a very pleasant summer ( not good for severe
weather watchers but great place to live if you are a weather watcher!)
our last major  weather event was around Christmas day. Rainfall has
been enough to keep the lawn green but I know Zeehan just north of us is
well below normal.
Temperatures inland have been warmer than normal and this has produced a
lot of sea breezes which gives us on the coast a very pleasant
temperature range.
I know this is terribly boring  but I am going to miss this summer when
it is over.

Chas
Strahan Tasmania



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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 13:14:18 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Question emailed to me...

Hi every1,
The following email was sent to me today and I've had a go at answering the 
question but need some confirmation of the worth or otherwise of my 
ramblings...Hope y'all can assist...

>From: "Catherine McHugh" <Catherine.McHugh at perkins.com.au>
>To: <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
>Subject: Question
>Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 09:51:27 +0930
>
>Had a look at your website, but still couldn't satisfy my curiosity, hence 
>this email.
>
>QUESTION: I was talking with some friends during a recent thunderstorm up 
>here (Darwin, NT) and we wondered if you get lightning at the Poles? As in, 
>the Arctic Circle and Antarctica. We thought that surely photos of 
>lightning strikes would be quite spectacular and that if it (lightning) did 
>strike in such cold conditions we would have seen something or heard about 
>it somewhere to indicate as such.
>
>Please advise.
>
>Thanks, Catherine McHugh
>Email to: catherine.mchugh at perkins.com.au

Hi Catherine,

While certainly no expert on thunderstorm formation it seems unlikely that 
it would be even rarely occurring at the poles. The formation of charge in 
thunderstorms relies on water existing in at least two visible forms, liquid 
and solid (actually I suppose graupel could be called semi-solid...) Charge 
separation from collisions within the storm cloud results in the static 
build-up that eventually is released as a lightning bolt.

Problems at the poles: Convection is hard to initiate as the surface tends 
to be considerably colder than the air above it resulting in very strong 
inversions (i.e. it's hard to get the air to rise); and the air temperature 
at heights at which clouds would form are usually below zero which prevents 
liquid droplets from condensing.

These are purely my thoughts - I'll pass the query on to the aussie-weather 
list for some more knowledgeable opinions...

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.



>
>

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Date: Wed, 31 Jan 2001 22:11:10 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Question emailed to me...
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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> >From: "Catherine McHugh" <Catherine.McHugh at perkins.com.au>

> >QUESTION: I was talking with some friends during a recent thunderstorm
up 
> >here (Darwin, NT) and we wondered if you get lightning at the Poles? As
in, 
> >the Arctic Circle and Antarctica. We thought that surely photos of 
> >lightning strikes would be quite spectacular and that if it (lightning)
did 
> >strike in such cold conditions we would have seen something or heard
about 
> >it somewhere to indicate as such.

I am not an authority on this question but I will attempt to apply what I
do know to answer the question.  But I could be wrong.

For lightning to occur we must have an unstable (to slant wise or vertical
motion) stratification, sufficiently strong drafts to separate charges, ~
45 dBZ, and mixed phase of supercooled liquid water, snow, and ice/grapul. 
Rarely if ever would the atmosphere be sufficiently unstable, therefor
drafts would be too weak, nor would sufficiently high reflectivities be
present.  On the question of mixed phase, I am not certain I would
eliminate that condition.  It is conceivable that one condition could be
met.

Les


************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 15:56:22 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] heavy rain continues

Hi all,

We've now had a huge 130mm from 9am to 3pm today, falling at about 25mm/hr 
from 9 - 12 then 20mm/hr since. Winds are gusting to about 80 km/h at 
McLeans Ridges from the East, no doubt stronger on the coast.

The valley below is getting flooded with the streams just about to spread 
into paddocks by the looks.  Other high falls 9-3pm:

BALLINA AP AWS 1500 E  /052 21 1007.2    90
CASINO         1500 SE /059 20           97     RAIN     600m
CASINO AP AWS  1500 E  /035 20 1006.7   104
EVANS HD AWS   1500 E  /052 21 1007.8    63
GRAFTON        1500 E  /009 20           41     RAIN
YAMBA          1500 ESE/056 21 1008.0 R  27     RAIN    5000m    3   <2

COFFS HARBOUR  1500 E  /017 21 1011.6 R  32     RAIN      8km
DORRIGO        1500 SE /007 16           56     RAIN    2000m


Flood warnings have started to appear for Northern Rivers district streams: 
Wilsons/Richmond, Tweed and Clarence which is no surprise!

Michael
  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================


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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 14:55:53 +1000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] very heavy rain NE NSW and SE QLD

Hi Michael, everyone

I just had 52mm in an hour and a half from an thundery rainband.  Static on
AM as it approached was about 1 crackle every 4 seconds, but i only saw a
few flashes and no visible stokes.  There was quite a lot of local flooding
around Redcliffe and surrounding areas during the rain, although mainly from
street gutters overlfowing - none of the creeks i saw were quite ready to
flood (yet!)

There is some very nice booming and rolling thunder now as the band clears
out to sea

In the 20 hours from 6pm yesterday to 2pm today i've had 99mm, with 25mm
falling from 6pm to midnight, 22mm from midnight to 12:30pm and then the
52mm i just got to 2pm


BRING IT
ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Bath" <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 01, 2001 11:19 AM
Subject: [aussie-weather] very heavy rain NE NSW


> Hi all,
>
> After 95mm to 9am we have had a further 80mm !!! in the 3 hours since.
> Other totals to noon include Ballina 50mm, Casino 38mm, Evans Head 35mm.
>
> Winds are strong to gale force from the ESE.
>
> Expect to see major flooding if this keeps up.
>
> regards, Michael
>
>   =============================================================
>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   =============================================================
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
>
>
>


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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 14:39:16 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Heavy Rain in SE Qld.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All.

Heavy rain continued overnight here on the Gold Coast, becoming very heavy
around dawn (sufficiently so to wake me up because of the noise on the
roof), and has eased a little today to periodic heavy rain interspersed
with drizzle. The winds have picked up (probably SE but a bit hard to tell
here because of a low ridge immediately S to E of the house), and there are
thunderstorms in the region judging by the static on the AM radio.

Heard the BoM on the radio a while ago - they expect it to continue until
tomorrow and there was 141mm at Coolangatta overnight, and I would say we
close to that here out the back of Burleigh Heads.

A Severe Weather Warning has been issued by the BoM for SE Qld (pasted below).

Regards,
Carl.

>IDW60Q01
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Brisbane Office
>
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>At 1340 EST on Thursday the 1st of February 2001
>
>For the southeast coast district.
>
>
>
>Heavy rain currently being experienced through the southeast coast district is
>producing localised flooding on some roads and creek crossings.  Periods of
>heavy rain are expected through the rest of today and overnight and further
>flooding is likley.  People should exercise extreme caution.
>
>For further advice contact local police or SES.
>
>The next warning will be issued at 4pm Thursday.


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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 15:32:34 +1000
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Subject: [aussie-weather] Heavy Rain & Strong Winds in SEQ

Hi all,

A line of severe TS went through Brisbane earlier with torrential rain,
flooding and strong winds.  I was around Sunnybank at the time...some
roads were partially under water due to blocked drains and I frequently
had to shift into 2nd gear for extended periods of time to go through
some roads there was just that much water on them!  I think a lot of
drains were blocked (they often are if we don't get widespread heavy
rain for a while), and that worsened the situation.  There were strong
winds, saw one small tree down and a few branches down about the place.

I phoned the BoM with the report at about 1:25pm - and they issued a
severe weather warning (attached below).

Our kitchen got flooded - water came pouring through the skylight - gust
of 76km/h at my place.  29.8mm to 9am here, 9am to 3pm rainfall was
66mm.

TOP PRIORITY
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
At 1340 EST on Thursday the 1st of February 2001

For the southeast coast district. 

Heavy rain currently being experienced through the southeast coast
district is
producing localised flooding on some roads and creek crossings.  Periods
of 
heavy rain are expected through the rest of today and overnight and
further
flooding is likley.  People should exercise extreme caution.

For further advice contact local police or SES.

The next warning will be issued at 4pm Thursday.

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 05:46:27 -0000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] More Rain Totals

Rainfall continues here at Buckendoon 0830 - 11.40 56mm Wind 
continues E-NE gusting 20-25 knots.

Looks like another couple of inches in the guage but I havent emptied 
it yet.

Keith Dorrell


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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 15:36:06 +1000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] flooding

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<DIV>Hi All</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>Currently the creek is in moderate -major flood. I have taken some photos. 
Rainfall 9am-3pm 64mm. Most of this falling within the last 2hrs. I hope there 
is more rain before it gets dark - I wish that March fall in 1999 was during the 
day</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>cheers</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Sam</FONT></DIV></DIV>
<br>

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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 17:00:17 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Schofields and local floods

Hi all,

Just a little note as I do in special events like these, we have had 45.6mm 
up to 7:30am yesterday and another 95mm this morning. This is not bad for 
Schofields. But it is interesting to note that after the 45.6mm, the sort 
of runoff I saw in areas where I work and on the way - only say 5km as the 
crow flies (if it had wings), I noticed the runoff and creeks flowing 
indicated significantly more rain had fallen there and it seemed to 
coincide with the 161mm at Prospect Dam, perhaps a corridor of heavy 
rainfall. Now our 48 hour total does not even match that figure so a 
significant amount has fallen in that region and SW suburbs.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au


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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 16:13:36 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Heavy Rain & Strong Winds in SEQ

Re: SE QLD Rain

I travelled from Caloundra at 1.30pm to Cleveland (on the coast due east of
Brisbane) arriving at 3.30pm. When leaving Caloundra it was raining very
heavily with lightning and thunder. However a short distance out of
Caloundra the skies brightened up to show blue skies to the west. It wasn't
until I reached the Gateway Bridge did it start raining again (around 3pm)
and it is obvious that it had been raining heavily. Still raining in
Cleveland now (49 mm from 9am to 3.30pm).

I was particularly interested in the radar picture which tells the story - A
very broad arc of rain extending from the Sunshine Coast, out to Moreton Bay
and then back onto the coast in the Wynnum area.

Its tempting to think that the rain is about to move off the coast and small
low pressure will form east of Moreton Island, but the forecasts would seem
to disagree as the upper system is moving north - north west ?

What do you think ?


Regards
Simon


----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 01, 2001 4:32 PM
Subject: [aussie-weather] Heavy Rain & Strong Winds in SEQ


> Hi all,
>
> A line of severe TS went through Brisbane earlier with torrential rain,
> flooding and strong winds.  I was around Sunnybank at the time...some
> roads were partially under water due to blocked drains and I frequently
> had to shift into 2nd gear for extended periods of time to go through
> some roads there was just that much water on them!  I think a lot of
> drains were blocked (they often are if we don't get widespread heavy
> rain for a while), and that worsened the situation.  There were strong
> winds, saw one small tree down and a few branches down about the place.
>
> I phoned the BoM with the report at about 1:25pm - and they issued a
> severe weather warning (attached below).
>
> Our kitchen got flooded - water came pouring through the skylight - gust
> of 76km/h at my place.  29.8mm to 9am here, 9am to 3pm rainfall was
> 66mm.
>
> TOP PRIORITY
> SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
> Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
> At 1340 EST on Thursday the 1st of February 2001
>
> For the southeast coast district.
>
> Heavy rain currently being experienced through the southeast coast
> district is
> producing localised flooding on some roads and creek crossings.  Periods
> of
> heavy rain are expected through the rest of today and overnight and
> further
> flooding is likley.  People should exercise extreme caution.
>
> For further advice contact local police or SES.
>
> The next warning will be issued at 4pm Thursday.
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
>
>
>


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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 06:54:26 
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Homework Question

<x-html>
<html><DIV>
<P>Hi All</P>
<P>Today in my year 11 Physics class the question of "Why the sky is blue" came up. It has been set as someting to find out about, using any method that we choose. </P>
<P>I was wondering whether or not anyone out there knows anything about this. I think the sky being a blue colour has got something to do with the light from the sun being slow down to appear as a blue colour.</P>
<P>Anyway any help with the Question "Why is the sky blue?" would be very helpful.</P>
<P>Thanks</P>
<P>Luke Garde&nbsp;&nbsp; ASWA Victoria</P></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p>
<br>

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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 16:35:27 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Weather Warning SE Qld.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

>IDW60Q01
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Brisbane Office
>
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>At 4pm on Thursday the 1st of February 2001
>
>For the Southeast Coast district, eastern Darling Downs and southern parts of
>the Wide Bay-Burnett district.
>
>A strong pressure gradient is developing between an intensifying 1001hPa low
>over the Darling Downs and a 1027hPa high in the Tasman Sea.  Damaging wind
>gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop overnight in mountain areas south
>of a line between Texas, Toowoomba and Rathdowney.
>
>Further heavy rain is expected through the Southeast Coast district and
>southern
>Wide Bay-Burnett district overnight with localised flooding of roads and
>possible rises in creeks and rivers.
>
>People should take precautions if out in the open or driving in the wet windy
>conditions.
>
>For further advice, contact your local police or SES
>
>The next warning will be issued at 10 pm Thursday.


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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 18:22:10 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Homework Question

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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Luke,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I actually saw a video about space exploration the 
other day who's title escapes me at the moment, but in it, they explained why 
things are different colours.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Basically, from what I gathered from the video, the 
sky is blue for a number of reasons.&nbsp; The chemical make up of the 
atmosphere, the varying density of the atmosphere (ever noticed how some days 
the sky seems more blue, possibly because of high and low pressure systems, I 
don't know).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just like the grass is green because it absorbs all 
the colours of the light spectrum except for green, the atmosphere absorbs all 
wavelengths of light except blue.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>If anyone else can make better sense of it than 
that, please do, it's been 11 years since I did physics, the cobwebs are a bit 
thicker now.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hope this helps a little Luke.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Chris</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=sky_city at hotmail.com href="mailto:sky_city at hotmail.com">Luke 
  Garde</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  title=aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com">aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, February 01, 2001 6:54 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [aussie-weather] Homework 
  Question</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P>Hi All</P>
  <P>Today in my year 11 Physics class the question of "Why the sky is blue" 
  came up. It has been set as someting to find out about, using any method that 
  we choose. </P>
  <P>I was wondering whether or not anyone out there knows anything about this. 
  I think the sky being a blue colour has got something to do with the light 
  from the sun being slow down to appear as a blue colour.</P>
  <P>Anyway any help with the Question "Why is the sky blue?" would be very 
  helpful.</P>
  <P>Thanks</P>
  <P>Luke Garde&nbsp;&nbsp; ASWA Victoria</P></DIV><BR clear=all>
  <HR>
  Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <A 
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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 18:20:38 +1100
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Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Homework Question

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<DIV>Hi Luke,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>yes you are correct about the refraction of light.&nbsp; I just had a look 
for a book that Ihad the information in, but unfortunately it is still packed 
away.&nbsp; I searched the NASA web site and came up with the following url for 
you to have alook at.</DIV>
<DIV><A 
href="http://www.skypub.com/tips/skywise/9902skywise.html">http://www.skypub.com/tips/skywise/9902skywise.html</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>This explains both the colour of the sky during the day and at 
sunset.&nbsp; The same principle applies to both.&nbsp; It is simple colour 
theory.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Hope this helps.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Carolyn</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P>Hi All</P>
  <P>Today in my year 11 Physics class the question of "Why the sky is blue" 
  came up. It has been set as someting to find out about, using any method that 
  we choose. </P>
  <P>I was wondering whether or not anyone out there knows anything about this. 
  I think the sky being a blue colour has got something to do with the light 
  from the sun being slow down to appear as a blue colour.</P>
  <P>Anyway any help with the Question "Why is the sky blue?" would be very 
  helpful.</P>
  <P>Thanks</P>
  <P>Luke Garde&nbsp;&nbsp; ASWA Victoria</P></DIV><BR clear=all>
  <HR>
  Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <A 
  href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</A>.<BR>
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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 18:27:44 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] High Winds 

6.25pm 01/02

HI all..

Currently been having high winds around Tooraweena, Gilgandra, Binnaway,
Mudgee, Gulgong, Coonabarabran, Narromine..

All have power lines down from trees blown down.  Some lines causing
fires..

Dave
Bathurst


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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 18:30:40 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] very heavy rain NE NSW

Further to Michaels email,
Here at Wauchope (near Port Macquarie), we have had continuous heavy 
rainfall for over 48 hours now. We are now starting to see the rivers rise 
quite fast, and creeks going into flood.

Will update if anything dramatic happens.

Michael Flood
Wauchope, NSW


>From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [aussie-weather] very heavy rain NE NSW
>Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 12:19:53 +1100
>
>Hi all,
>
>After 95mm to 9am we have had a further 80mm !!! in the 3 hours since.
>Other totals to noon include Ballina 50mm, Casino 38mm, Evans Head 35mm.
>
>Winds are strong to gale force from the ESE.
>
>Expect to see major flooding if this keeps up.
>
>regards, Michael
>
>   =============================================================
>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   =============================================================
>

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.


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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 18:39:33 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Homework Question

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<DIV>Well Chris, one of my teaching subjects is colour theory, and I am on a 
roll with posting things on list servers at the moment.....LOL</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Carolyn</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A href="mailto:jindivik at bigpond.com" title=jindivik at bigpond.com>Chris 
  Daley</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com" 
  title=aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, February 01, 2001 6:35 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [aussie-weather] Homework 
  Question</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sure beats my explanation.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thanks 
Carolyn</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE>
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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 18:15:40 +1000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Heavy Rain & Strong Winds in SEQ

Hi Simon,

I think that as the low continues to develop, that we'll see all of the
rain that moved over us today and this afternoon that moved out to sea,
wrap around and come back inland o'night, possibly meaning that tomorrow
will be the peak of the NE NSW/SE QLD flood situation - hopefully no one
does anything silly like purposely cross a flooded river/creek in a car
over a bridge, or we don't have people going in flood waters!

AC

Simon Clarke wrote:
> 
> Re: SE QLD Rain
> 
> I travelled from Caloundra at 1.30pm to Cleveland (on the coast due east of
> Brisbane) arriving at 3.30pm. When leaving Caloundra it was raining very
> heavily with lightning and thunder. However a short distance out of
> Caloundra the skies brightened up to show blue skies to the west. It wasn't
> until I reached the Gateway Bridge did it start raining again (around 3pm)
> and it is obvious that it had been raining heavily. Still raining in
> Cleveland now (49 mm from 9am to 3.30pm).
> 
> I was particularly interested in the radar picture which tells the story - A
> very broad arc of rain extending from the Sunshine Coast, out to Moreton Bay
> and then back onto the coast in the Wynnum area.
> 
> Its tempting to think that the rain is about to move off the coast and small
> low pressure will form east of Moreton Island, but the forecasts would seem
> to disagree as the upper system is moving north - north west ?
> 
> What do you think ?
> 
> Regards
> Simon
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Thursday, February 01, 2001 4:32 PM
> Subject: [aussie-weather] Heavy Rain & Strong Winds in SEQ
> 
> > Hi all,
> >
> > A line of severe TS went through Brisbane earlier with torrential rain,
> > flooding and strong winds.  I was around Sunnybank at the time...some
> > roads were partially under water due to blocked drains and I frequently
> > had to shift into 2nd gear for extended periods of time to go through
> > some roads there was just that much water on them!  I think a lot of
> > drains were blocked (they often are if we don't get widespread heavy
> > rain for a while), and that worsened the situation.  There were strong
> > winds, saw one small tree down and a few branches down about the place.
> >
> > I phoned the BoM with the report at about 1:25pm - and they issued a
> > severe weather warning (attached below).
> >
> > Our kitchen got flooded - water came pouring through the skylight - gust
> > of 76km/h at my place.  29.8mm to 9am here, 9am to 3pm rainfall was
> > 66mm.
> >
> > TOP PRIORITY
> > SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
> > Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
> > At 1340 EST on Thursday the 1st of February 2001
> >
> > For the southeast coast district.
> >
> > Heavy rain currently being experienced through the southeast coast
> > district is
> > producing localised flooding on some roads and creek crossings.  Periods
> > of
> > heavy rain are expected through the rest of today and overnight and
> > further
> > flooding is likley.  People should exercise extreme caution.
> >
> > For further advice contact local police or SES.
> >
> > The next warning will be issued at 4pm Thursday.
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
> >
> >
> >
> 
> 
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 17:50:16 +0930
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] FW: BERRIMAH STALL LINE - DARWIN STORM CHASERS PLEASE TAKE NOTE

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<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=540111908-01022001>Hey 
everyone - great eamil from Charlie Fitzgerald (NT ASWA) re: last nights nice 
squall line &amp; winds.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
class=540111908-01022001></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=540111908-01022001>Rgds, 
Paul.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> charles fitzgerald 
[mailto:snagglepuss01 at ozemail.com.au]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, 2 January 1998 
9:07 AM<BR><B>To:</B> Paul Mossman<BR><B>Cc:</B> 
snagglepuss01 at ozemail.com.au<BR><B>Subject:</B> BERRIMAH STALL LINE - DARWIN 
STORM CHASERS PLEASE TAKE NOTE<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Ever since I arrived in Darwin I've been facinated 
why five out of six, usually organised storms stall in the Palmerston / Berrimah 
/</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Francis Bay area.&nbsp; I've nicknamed it the 
'Berrimah Stall Line'.&nbsp; I can give you some information, but it even 
confuses the Weather Bureau and makes severe storm warnings a nightmare.&nbsp; 
If I can get lastnight's storm on disk I will try to put it up on this site, if 
I</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>can't I have it on video as I usually drop the 
computer video output into my video recorder so I can combine it with INFO TV on 
Ch64</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>which has continuous weather broadcasts&nbsp; 
during cyclone events anywhere from the Gulf area to Perth.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Yesterday, 31 January 2001 a very large organised 
storm front was approaching from the SE by late afternoon and was becoming well 
organised.&nbsp; It was about 250 x 500 kilometres in size and took about 6 
hours to pass over most localities, including (sic) over</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Darwin.&nbsp; Rainfall varied from 2 mm at the 
Darwin Airport, 5 at Palmerston and 12 at Karama.&nbsp; In the rural area it 
varied from 2 mm</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>at Humpty Doo to 7 at Howard Springs, 17 at Darwin 
River Dam, 18 at McMinns Lagoon, 30 at Lambells Lagoon, 43 at Adelaide River 
Post Office, 47 at Batchelor, 60 at Jabiru and 79 at the Jabiru Airport.&nbsp; 
From 5 or 6 pm the cell was travelling from the SE</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>and you could bet your shirt on it that it would 
piss down over Darwin for 5 or 6 hours.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Around&nbsp; 8.30 pm it struck seabreeze turbulance 
which disorganised the storm.&nbsp; The storm front began to disappear&nbsp; 
quickly, but</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>again reformed into a nice long well developed 
storm line of yellow on the radar followed by tons of heavy rain but within 20 
minutes</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>it stood stationary and didn't advance an inch for 
the next three hours leaving a cloudless gap in the cloud over Francis Bay, the 
city and the northern suburbs as well as over the inlet south of Francis 
Bay.&nbsp; This gap remained there for the rest of the night,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>while the storm magically reappeared to the north 
of Darwin spreading in every direction except Darwin.&nbsp; The whole storm 
system continued on it's path as before while the main storm cloud continued 
south of Darwin until about 4 am.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Not only did the clouds not advance north of the 
Francis Bay / Palmerston area, but the clouds continued to evaporate to the 
south and southeast where it came from.&nbsp; Very early in the morning, cloud 
came in from the NE over land, but as soon as it struck the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Darwin metropolitan area the cloud zized and zagged 
continually along the coastline to totally avoid Darwin.&nbsp;&nbsp; Right in 
the very last stages of this very long period of time the tiniest slithers of 
cloud passed over some of Darwin barely wetting the ground.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>When you consider there was no seabreeze in Darwin 
as it was calm at the time , and the storm produced a gusty outflow that brought 
down branches here at Fannie Bay, you could excuse the seabreeze from preventing 
the storms approach.&nbsp; Maybe it was the sea temperature the bureau told me 
was around 30 or 31 degrees.&nbsp; Maybe it's the heat from the cleared and 
developed area of land, but how does this explain how the previous three year we 
had record rainfalls.&nbsp; This year Darwin has experienced only 351 mm 
compared to an average of 892mm.&nbsp; Gove has had around 1200mm and most of 
the areas south of the top end including the Queensland / Northern Territory has 
been in flood with falls in the top 10 or 20 percent decile.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>These sort of conditions sends Darwin people 
bonkers.&nbsp; The only good thing about it is you can sit at the wharf sucking 
on a beer while watching decent rain and lightning storms pass on the skyline 
south of Darwin, passing over Palmerston and the rural areas.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The Darwin Storm Cam located on the top of Moonta 
House building in Mitchell Street provides the same view with some elevation and 
shows the wharf I view from.&nbsp; The Darwin wharf Precinct is possibly the 
best viewing and photography location as it has 360 degree views undercover 
including the city skyline and the Berrimah stall line.&nbsp; It also has fine 
eateries, toilets, parking, phones and excellent Batphone (mobile) coverage and 
is a great place to meet people.&nbsp; Parking is a bit difficult after 7pm 
especially on weekends and can be accessed from Bennet Street in the city by 
minibus if you wish.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Contact us at NT ASWA as we should have our own 
page up&nbsp; by the time this is published.&nbsp; I'm going to a little extra 
effort to provide details of the location to help interstate or overseas 
visitors.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Catch you all next time</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards Charlie Fitzgerald</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="mailto:snagglepuss01 at ozemail.com.au">snagglepuss01 at ozemail.com.au</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<br>

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Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 20:33:09 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Blaxland Heavy Rain Event Rainfall Figures

Hi Everyone,

Here are my Blaxland (NSW) rainfall figures for the heavy rain event of the
last few days.

30th January 115mm (9am 30/1 - 9am 31/1)
31st January 45mm (9am 31/1- 9am 1/2)
1st February 24mm (9am - 8pm)

Total rainfall for January ended up being 285mm (174mm above average) after
it was looking like being 47mm below average this time last week.

Matthew Piper


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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 10:41:59 -0000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Re: Homework Question

--- In aussie-weather at y..., "Luke Garde" <sky_city at h...> wrote:
> You should watch the movie, "The Kid" (Bruce Willis). The answer is 
given right at the end..


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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 13:18:23 GMT
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Car Site found with travel planner 

Andrew, a similar site, with different and sometimes useful options,
is at http://www.travelmate.com.au/ and click on Smart Trip. A useful
feature is being able to force a specific route, and I think there are
more options than theride. BTW, the raw GIS engine powering both sites
is at http://www.nowwhereroute.com/

Laurier


On Sun, 28 Jan 2001 13:33:18 +1030, Andrew Wall
<astroman at chariot.net.au> wrote:

>Hi all,
>
>Just found this website thought it may interest a few people who would like 
>to get from point A to point B in the shortest amount of distance and time.
>
>http://www.theride.com
>
>you can register for free with them and add your car details too, pretty 
>good site actually.
>
>regards
>
>Andrew Wall (SASTORMS webmaster)
>
>http://sastorms.virtualave.net
>
>
>
>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
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>
>


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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 14:18:48 GMT
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] severe thunderstorm warnings

On Mon, 29 Jan 2001 17:12:56 +1100 (EST), Blair Trewin
<blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au> wrote:

>I think David's hit the nail on the head here - as long as we don't have 
>100% radar coverage of any given state there would be problems of
>regional consistency - you could issue warnings for areas where
>there was good radar coverage (which certainly applies to the NSW
>North Coast) but this creates problems with areas that don't have it.
>
I'm sorry, David and Blair, but I don't agree. 

If you apply this principle, why give Sydney the benefit of
radar-based storm warnings? Shouldn't it wait until the rest of NSW
can enjoy the same life-saving advantages? Or should we wait until
just the populated eastern half of NSW gets radar? Or all Australia?
Or the Pacific Basin? These are lines in the sand.

Applying the principle elsewhere, would vessels close to a ship in
distress fail to give assistance because other areas may not have the
same density of shipping, and to provide assistance in this case would
present problems of regional consistency?

The NSW Railways used to fence all their lines to prevent stock,
children and grandmothers wandering in front of trains. Economically,
this is no longer possible. Should they, therefore, not fence any
lines, including those in towns, or beside busy roads? After all, to
do so would be regionally inconsistent.

If the general principle is that you don't provide a service in an
area where you can because there are some areas where you can't,
nothing would ever get done. It is a very convenient, bureaucratic
cop-out, and has been used by politicians since ancient Greece (and
probably before) to argue their way out of doing something that common
sense says should be done. It is a fallacious argument, because it
assumes that consistency is good in its own right. Consistency is only
good if it achieves some benefit. In this case, it places regional
centres with radar coverage equal to capital cities at a disadvantage
to the capital cities. Which is inconsistent.

Are we seriously suggesting that, if Bureau forecasters observe on
Grafton radar a supercell of historic proportions bearing down on the
city, they should not issue a specific warning but rely on a general
advice issued hours before, even though a specific warning could save
lives?

I do find the argument for regional consistency strangely inconsistent
with the Bureau's general policy of maintaining inconsistency through
its regional offices. Hence we have a brilliant web-based
flood-warning system in place in Qld, but not the glimmer of a similar
effort in other states. We have half-hourly reports from most AWS's in
Victoria (which have mostly been placed in new locations), but only
hourly ones from most in NSW (which mostly duplicate, and replace,
previous manual stations). We have four times the number of daily
reporting rain gauges in eastern Sydney than western Sydney, where
more than half the population lives. 

The Bureau has a legislative responsibility to use whatever tools it
has at its disposal to issue warnings of life or property threatening
weather. It should do so.


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X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 01:03:42 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Weather SE Qld
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

Well, the wet and windy conditions are continuing here on the Gold Coast,
with strong and gusty winds that appeared to be SE to E earlier in the day
seem to have swung around to be more NE during the late afternoon, making
us more exposed here in a NW aspect elevated position.

During the evening squalls have reached gale force at times, with
conditions appearing to be akin to a Cat 1 cyclone at times the way the
trees were being belted around by the wind and stripping some leaves and
twigs from trees (we have a good garden floodlight).

The wind has dropped a little in the last few hours, but still reaching
gale force in squalls, and we have had a few lighter rain breaks in the
generally moderate to heavy rain.

Latest BoM Severe Weather Warning pasted below.

Regards,
Carl.

>IDW60Q01
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Brisbane Office
>
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>At 2250 EST on Thursday the 1st of February 2001
>
>For the Southeast Coast district,  eastern Darling Downs and southern parts of
>the Wide Bay-Burnett district.
>
>A strong pressure gradient is developing between a 1002hPa low north of
>Kingaroy
>and a 1027hPa high in the Tasman Sea.
>
>Damaging wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible over the southeast
>coast district and the Eastern Darling Downs , particularly about higher
>ground.
>
>Very rough seas will make beaches and coastal bars dangerous.
>
>Further heavy rain is expected through the Southeast Coast district and
>southern
>Wide Bay-Burnett district with localised flooding of roads and possible
>rises in
>creeks and rivers.
>
>People should take precautions if out in the open or driving in the wet windy
>conditions.
>
>For further advice, contact your local police or SES
>
>The next warning will be issued at 5 am Friday.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Cc: "Annette & John Hartwig (E-mail)" <aojh at bigpond.com>,
        "Sheila & Len Woodbridge (E-mail)" <shelen at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Heavy Rain at Mt. Crosby
Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 01:25:47 +1000
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Hi All,

Well at last a decent dump, 140mm in the 24 hours to midnight.  January had
continued the yr 2000 trend of below average rainfall with a total of just
47.5mm (of which 17.5mm just made it in on the 31st) cf 125mm average.  All
has now changed for Feb with 140mm in 24 hours which exceeds average for the
month by 20mm.  Total for the year 2000 was 597mm (cf 877mm average).

John from a soggy and windy Mt. Crosby.
>snip

Subject: aus-wx: Heavy Rain in SE Qld.

Hi All.

Heavy rain continued overnight here on the Gold Coast, becoming very heavy
around dawn (sufficiently so to wake me up because of the noise on the
roof), and has eased a little today to periodic heavy rain interspersed
with drizzle. The winds have picked up (probably SE but a bit hard to tell
here because of a low ridge immediately S to E of the house), and there are
thunderstorms in the region judging by the static on the AM radio.

Heard the BoM on the radio a while ago - they expect it to continue until
tomorrow and there was 141mm at Coolangatta overnight, and I would say we
close to that here out the back of Burleigh Heads.

A Severe Weather Warning has been issued by the BoM for SE Qld (pasted
below).

Regards,
Carl.

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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 10:01:12 -0600
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Re: aus-wx: Question emailed to me...

At 09:11 PM 1/31/01, you wrote:
> > >From: "Catherine McHugh" <Catherine.McHugh at perkins.com.au>
>
> > >QUESTION: I was talking with some friends during a recent thunderstorm
>up
> > >here (Darwin, NT) and we wondered if you get lightning at the Poles? As
>in,
> > >the Arctic Circle and Antarctica. We thought that surely photos of
> > >lightning strikes would be quite spectacular and that if it (lightning)
>did
> > >strike in such cold conditions we would have seen something or heard
>about
> > >it somewhere to indicate as such.
>
>I am not an authority on this question but I will attempt to apply what I
>do know to answer the question.  But I could be wrong.
>
>For lightning to occur we must have an unstable (to slant wise or vertical
>motion) stratification, sufficiently strong drafts to separate charges, ~
>45 dBZ, and mixed phase of supercooled liquid water, snow, and ice/grapul.
>Rarely if ever would the atmosphere be sufficiently unstable, therefor
>drafts would be too weak, nor would sufficiently high reflectivities be
>present.  On the question of mixed phase, I am not certain I would
>eliminate that condition.  It is conceivable that one condition could be
>met.
>
>Les

I remember reading something a few months ago on the internet related to 
global warming and the arctic ice melting. There was a report than Native 
Canadians in far north Canada were experiencing thunder and lightning for 
the first time in memory. I don't know how accurate the report was, but I 
thought it was interesting. Probably the equivalent for the far north 
Canadians as it would be for snow to fall on the people in Perth, which 
although exceedingly unlikely could happen I guess once in a few hundred, 
or thousand years, on the back side of an intense winter low?

Tom Johnstone
Madison, WI



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Date: Thu, 01 Feb 2001 10:11:50 -0600
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Fwd: Re: aus-wx: Question emailed to me...


>
>I remember reading something a few months ago on the internet related to 
>global warming and the arctic ice melting. There was a report than Native 
>Canadians in far north Canada were experiencing thunder and lightning for 
>the first time in memory. I don't know how accurate the report was, but I 
>thought it was interesting. Probably the equivalent for the far north 
>Canadians as it would be for snow to fall on the people in Perth, which 
>although exceedingly unlikely could happen I guess once in a few hundred, 
>or thousand years, on the back side of an intense winter low?


Here's a link to what I was talking about:

http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/science/DailyNews/arctic_thunder001115.html

Tom Johnstone
Madison, WI


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Date: Sat, 03 Feb 2001 07:18:39 -0000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Strange Weather / Yahoo $#%&&

Been trying to link the egroups to yahoo for a few days now and 
finaly done it after a half an hour and a couple of screen refreshs, 
I'm not convinced this is the way to go, there must be a better way.

The barometre is falling again in Gunnedah today. We were lucky to 
miss the big falls that fell further north at Moree this week (up to 
20") I tipped 63 mill out, just what the doctor ordered.  Been 
watching the depression that seems to been causing all this rain and 
it looks to be tracking SW and intensifying again ????.. Strange 
weather here today. I havent seen storms build in the NE and track SW 
consistently before, usually when we get this effect it is only for a 
few hours and is blown away by a change pretty well before the storms 
move westward.  You can hardly breath outside at the moment and temp 
is 30 expecting more rain.

What is your thoughts on the behavior of the depression over the next 
few days ?

stu


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Date: Sun, 4 Feb 2001 12:51:02 +1000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Career in Meteorology

Hi Everyone,

This may be of interest to some

You only need a yier 9 pass in inglish and maths - woohooo <g>


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This position with a leading Australian organisation takes meteorology to
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Education Requirements: Must have passed Year 9 with passes in English and
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Adviser on 13 19 01 or visit www.defencejobs.gov.au The availability of each
job varies; for current vacancies contact a Defence Force Careers Adviser.

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Job ref C1/301
Posted date 30/01/01
Job type Full time
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Date: Sat, 3 Feb 2001 16:49:54 +1100 (EDT)
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Question re satpic


Hi all

Jane, check out the IR loop I constructed as this shows the development of
that storm system:

http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_02_03/gmsloop.gif

That notch does appear in a couple of images, so it seems real. This also
appears in the water vapour imagery, here:

http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_02_03/wvloop.gif

As for the second arrow, I think that boundary _could_ perhaps be caused
through convergence with the upper level southwesterlies from the low
pressure system to the south, ie it causes the edge of the anvil to
sharpen up(?).


PS 
Just a reminder Jane that I will be absent from next Sat's ASWA meeting.
:(


On Fri, 2 Feb 2001, Leslie R. Lemon wrote:

> Jane asked:
> 
> > Arrow 1 points to a notch in the SE quarter of what appears to be an
> > enormous anvil - firstly is it an anvil? secondly, is dry air causing
> > this, and at what level?  and why???
> 
> I am not a satellite authority but I take this to be an anvil shield but
> for a large complex of thunderstorms.  The notch appears to be almost cut
> out.  Something is wrong here with the photo.  At least to me this does not
> look real.
> 
> > Arrow 2 points to what appears to be the edge of the old anvil if it is
> > an anvil?????
> 
> I believe that what is in view there is the lower level cloud or cloud base
> of the convective complex.
> 
> My best guess.
> 
> Les
> 

Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

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Date: Sat, 3 Feb 2001 14:22:23 +1000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Floods in NE NSW

Hi

What is happening with this list, will there be a new single server soon?

Anyway, I have just got home from being stuck for two nights just south of
Tweed Heads. We were comming home from Sydney on Thursday, and decided to go
all the way that day to avoid being stuck behind dozens of floods. We
reached Muwillumbah around 7.30 pm and had had to go around and through
water at various places. We were following a group of semi's and some cars
along the pacific highway. We reached the bridge to Terranora over the tweed
river, but once we were over we saw more deep water and decided to go back.
We returned to a small town called Tumbulgum and stopped at the tavern
there, where we could get the car up a little bit higher. We were then stuck
there for two nights watching the waters go up and down, almost reaching the
car. We finally heard thismorning that a road from Mooball, through to
Chinderah and Tweed heads. We were also told that the road back to
Murwillumbah, one of the lowest points on the road was clear of water. We
drove to the SES road block at Condong and were told we could get back, and
around though the Mooball detour. So we rushed back loaded out stuff in the
car and drove back. We made it easily once we got out.

It was quite a relief to get back home after being stuck in the back of a
pub for three days. I also saw some areas with damage consistant with
tornado damage. Several large trees were broken in different directions,
while trees just metres away were undamaged.

David


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Date: Sat, 3 Feb 2001 19:50:29 +1100 (EDT)
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] FW: BERRIMAH STALL LINE 


I've constructed Darwin local and broad radar loops for this time, and
nothing seems too unusual for me, but then again, I'm not familiar with
Darwin's weather. 

Local:
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_01_31/darwinlocalloop.gif

Broad:
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_01_31/darwinbroadloop.gif

> 
> Rgds, Paul.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: charles fitzgerald [mailto:snagglepuss01 at ozemail.com.au]
> Sent: Friday, 2 January 1998 9:07 AM
> To: Paul Mossman
> Cc: snagglepuss01 at ozemail.com.au
> Subject: BERRIMAH STALL LINE - DARWIN STORM CHASERS PLEASE TAKE NOTE
> 

>....
> 
> Around  8.30 pm it struck seabreeze turbulance which disorganised the storm.
> The storm front began to disappear  quickly, but
> again reformed into a nice long well developed storm line of yellow on the
> radar followed by tons of heavy rain but within 20 minutes
> it stood stationary and didn't advance an inch for the next three hours
> leaving a cloudless gap in the cloud over Francis Bay, the city and the
> northern suburbs as well as over the inlet south of Francis Bay.  This gap
> remained there for the rest of the night,
> while the storm magically reappeared to the north of Darwin spreading in
> every direction except Darwin.  The whole storm system continued on it's
> path as before while the main storm cloud continued south of Darwin until
> about 4 am.
> 
> .....


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

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Date: Sun, 04 Feb 2001 14:30:12 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Storms possible

Large storms surrounding Sydney at the moment on the ranges, from Richmond all the
way down south past Bowral to Kiama...  Large overshoots are a common site out
there today as updraughts shoot skywards. Backsheared anvils are also common as
each updraught goes up with heaps of pilius ontop! Should get a little cluttered
later on.. but geez its photogenic stuff !! Hopefully a thundery developes in the
basin area. 33C 24DP here at the moment.. doesnt get any better than that.
URG wheres a car that works when you need one ... Max king and Malcolm are out
chasing as well i think...

Matt Smith



> Hi
>
> Yep models are certainly looking not to shabby for tomorrow, all of them
> hinting at storms for the sydney region.
>
> I wont be able to go anywhere, car is not running well.. anyone want to lend me
> theres for a week ? :)
>
> Matt Smith
> http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
>
> Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> > Hi all,
> >
> > I know the conditions aren't exactly perfect, but I do believe that storms
> > are going to develop particularly along the ranges and perhaps they may
> > drift into Sydney later. I think whatever happens, we have deep moisture
> > and heavy rainfall could result particularly W and SW of Sydney.
> >
> > Currently we have had lower cloud patches from the NE and it is very humid.
> > If things develop, I will go out chasing within reach of Sydney so people
> > are welcome to tag along.
> >
> > my mobile   0408020468
> >
> > -----------------------------------------
> > Jimmy Deguara
> > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> >
> > from
> > Schofields, Sydney
> > NSW Australia
> >
> > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> >
> > Web Page with Michael Bath
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> > http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> >
> > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com


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Date: Sun, 4 Feb 2001 15:14:25 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Storms possible

3:14pm

THe ranges are a mass of storms at the moment. THere are massive CB's to my
west, constant thunder, frequent CG's, and huge cumuliform anvils. To my
south a large band of storms, which is very photengenic,  with constant
fresh updrafts. The storms are heading SE. But very very black on the
western horizon now!!
____________________________
Daniel Weatherhead
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
============================
SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
============================


----- Original Message -----
From: dann weatherhead <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, February 04, 2001 1:36 PM
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Storms possible


> Actually its looking very nice up here for today. Huge billowing updrafts
> everywhere to the west, and with it being 32C/24.5DP, it nice and humid
too
> :)
>
> I will be on holidays for the next 12 days or so in the sunny and sodden
> area of  SE QLD. I will be staying at Burliegh Heads, South of the Gold
> coast. I will be meeting up with those QLD ASWA members who attend the QLD
> meeting next Saturday.
>
> As i will be away from a computer for over a week (eeeeeeeek!!) any
weather
> updates will be greatly appreciated. After perusing the 4am MLSP in the
> morning newspapers and looking at a 12 hour satpic i am sure i will be
well
> 'out of it'.Hopefully i will be able to follow this system up the NSW
north
> coast.
> ____________________________
> Daniel Weatherhead
> weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
> 0402 091479
> ============================
> SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
> http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
> ============================
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Met support <twc at theweather.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Sunday, February 04, 2001 12:13 PM
> Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Storms possible
>
>
> > Hi Matt,
> >             Certainly looks like there will be some around...In fact,
when
> I
> > last looked out the window to the south of Sydney, I could see some
build
> > up.  Given the deep moisture layer on this morning's sounding, I would
be
> > thinking high precipitation storms are likely.
> > Paul G.
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Matt Smith" <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
> > Sent: Sunday, February 04, 2001 11:21 AM
> > Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Storms possible
> >
> >
> > > Hi
> > >
> > > Yep models are certainly looking not to shabby for tomorrow, all of
them
> > > hinting at storms for the sydney region.
> > >
> > > I wont be able to go anywhere, car is not running well.. anyone want
to
> > lend me
> > > theres for a week ? :)
> > >
> > > Matt Smith
> > > http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
> > >
> > > Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> > >
> > > > Hi all,
> > > >
> > > > I know the conditions aren't exactly perfect, but I do believe that
> > storms
> > > > are going to develop particularly along the ranges and perhaps they
> may
> > > > drift into Sydney later. I think whatever happens, we have deep
> moisture
> > > > and heavy rainfall could result particularly W and SW of Sydney.
> > > >
> > > > Currently we have had lower cloud patches from the NE and it is very
> > humid.
> > > > If things develop, I will go out chasing within reach of Sydney so
> > people
> > > > are welcome to tag along.
> > > >
> > > > my mobile   0408020468
> > > >
> > > > -----------------------------------------
> > > > Jimmy Deguara
> > > > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> > > >
> > > > from
> > > > Schofields, Sydney
> > > > NSW Australia
> > > >
> > > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> > > >
> > > > Web Page with Michael Bath
> > > >
> > > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> > > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> > > >
> > > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> > > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> aussie-weather-unsubscribe at egroups.com
>
>
>
>


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X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sun, 4 Feb 2001 13:30:17 +1000
To: aussie-weather at theweather.com.au,
        Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: A trivium
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>This was written by Henry A. Burger, PE (stands for Professional Engineer)
>in Sacramento.  Enjoy!
>
>Subject: A trivium
>
>Friends:
>
> For many years Pacific fishermen (all men) off the coast of Central and
>South America noticed that when the surface ocean temperatures were
>slightly warmer than normal the fishing was bad.  This did not occur every
>year, but when it did it was always in the Christmas season.  The Latin
>American societies liberally spread religious symbols everywhere, most of
>them being devout Roman Catholics, so they called this phenomenon "El
>Niño" (pronounced El Neenyo), which literally means "The infant boy".
>More specifically, it refers to the Christ Child.  Such is the way of
>things in these countries.
>
>Naturally the weather people up here eventually picked it up, having
>nothing better to do and desperate for something that they can measure to
>make long-term weather predictions.  This change in ocean surface
>temperatures does alter the weather patterns, such as the jet stream, and
>so makes a good predictor world wide.  It itself is a response to the
>trade winds, which operate in those years to pile up warm water in areas,
>so the weather effect is global.  Thus we started hearing about "El Niño"
>years.
>
> Well, this was fine for a few years, except that the evening news seemed
>to be in a repeating loop about it, and we all knew what it meant.  Then
>some bright weather forecaster had a case of cerebral flatulence near an
>open flame and invented a name for the opposite condition, cooler than
>usual surface temperatures, and he called it "La Niña", or "The infant
>girl".
>
>Who is this infant girl anyhow.  The sister of Christ?  At this point it
>got ridiculous since every weather forecast seemed to use it or perhaps
>both.
>
>But today it went beyond ridiculous.  Today I read in the paper that for
>those years that the ocean surface temperatures in the target area in the
>Pacific is neither above or below normal, that the year should be called
>-- pay attention now -- a "La Nada" year.  For those who don't know much
>about the Spanish language, this means "The Nothing".  This is a "Nothing"
>year (so far) and it means that there could be a severe spring flood in
>Sacramento, or perhaps not.  Very informative.
>
>Don't these people have something better to do?


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Date: Sun, 4 Feb 2001 15:47:18 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Career in Meteorology

Or colour-blind like a large number of males are!

----- Original Message -----
From: Paul Yole <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Monday, February 05, 2001 2:23 PM
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Career in Meteorology


> Don't even bother if ya diabetic though..... :o(
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Sunday, February 04, 2001 1:51 PM
> Subject: [aussie-weather] Career in Meteorology
>
>
> > Hi Everyone,
> >
> > This may be of interest to some
> >
> > You only need a yier 9 pass in inglish and maths - woohooo <g>
> >
> >
> > Meteorology and Survey Operator
> > This position with a leading Australian organisation takes meteorology
to
> > new heights with a unique position in many environments. Training
> provided.
> >
> > Job Description: This position with the Royal Australian Artillery is
for
> a
> > soldier who operates survey equipment to determine accurate locations
and
> > directions for artillery units. In addition, the job requires sampling
the
> > atmosphere to measure the prevailing conditions for the operations of
> > artillery and other Army units.
> >
> > Job Functions:
> >
> > Operating survey equipment including Global Positioning Systems,
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> > Equipment.
> > Observing and recording survey data using this equipment.
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> the
> > Artillery and other units.
> > Filling, launching and tracking meteorological balloons and sondes.
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> > Maintaining survey and meteorological equipment.
> > Assisting in the defence of the section or troop position.
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> >
> > For more information submit an on-line enquiry, call a Defence Careers
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> >
> > Click Here to contact your Defence Force Careers Reference Centre.
> >
> >
> > Job ref C1/301
> > Posted date 30/01/01
> > Job type Full time
> > Location QLD-other
> > Country Australia
> >
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> >
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Date: Sun, 04 Feb 2001 15:28:54 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] STW for Illawarra

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE  Issued at 1546 on Sunday the 4th of
February 2001
This warning affects people in the following Local Government Areas:
Wingecarribee, Kiama  and southern parts of Wollongong.

This warning is current from 3:45 until 4:45pm.

Storms are currently located east of Bowral and are forecast to move slowly
towards the southeast.

Very heavy rainfall, damaging winds and large hail are possible.

Matt Smith wrote:

> Large storms surrounding Sydney at the moment on the ranges, from Richmond all the
> way down south past Bowral to Kiama...  Large overshoots are a common site out
> there today as updraughts shoot skywards. Backsheared anvils are also common as
> each updraught goes up with heaps of pilius ontop! Should get a little cluttered
> later on.. but geez its photogenic stuff !! Hopefully a thundery developes in the
> basin area. 33C 24DP here at the moment.. doesnt get any better than that.
> URG wheres a car that works when you need one ... Max king and Malcolm are out
> chasing as well i think...
>
> Matt Smith
>
> > Hi
> >
> > Yep models are certainly looking not to shabby for tomorrow, all of them
> > hinting at storms for the sydney region.
> >
> > I wont be able to go anywhere, car is not running well.. anyone want to lend me
> > theres for a week ? :)
> >
> > Matt Smith
> > http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
> >
> > Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> >
> > > Hi all,
> > >
> > > I know the conditions aren't exactly perfect, but I do believe that storms
> > > are going to develop particularly along the ranges and perhaps they may
> > > drift into Sydney later. I think whatever happens, we have deep moisture
> > > and heavy rainfall could result particularly W and SW of Sydney.
> > >
> > > Currently we have had lower cloud patches from the NE and it is very humid.
> > > If things develop, I will go out chasing within reach of Sydney so people
> > > are welcome to tag along.
> > >
> > > my mobile   0408020468
> > >
> > > -----------------------------------------
> > > Jimmy Deguara
> > > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> > >
> > > from
> > > Schofields, Sydney
> > > NSW Australia
> > >
> > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> > >
> > > Web Page with Michael Bath
> > >
> > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> > >
> > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
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>
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Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 14:50:46 -0800 (PST)
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Hot Night in Melbourne - Hot day to come - Storms tomorrow?? 

At this time I would like to stop receiving e-mails.
Thank you!
--- Nick Sykes <njsykes at yahoo.com> wrote:
> Hey All
> 
> Last night was very warm in Melbourne with the
> minimum temperature settling
> at about 26. The northerly breeze persisted all
> night and made for
> uncomfortable sleeping. Though not as bad as the
> residents of Adelaide who
> had a minimum of 29.6 the night before.
> 
> Today looks to be very hot throughout Victoria with
> clear skies and fresh
> northerlies. Temps will be in the high 30's near 40
> through most the state.
> A weak cool change is currently over the SE of SA.
> 
> Another interesting thing to note is an increase in
> the DP's over Victoria
> overnight (mid teens, woohooo, don't NSW or QLD
> people say anything). It
> looks like some of that huge amount of moisture
> inland is been forced south
> into the trough. Upper level support isn't the worst
> I've seen and with the
> trough lingering over the area tomorrow some action
> could kick off. It does
> look like Northern Vic will have a better chance of
> scoring and as usual NSW
> looks nice.
> But for a storm starved Victorian it isn't looking
> too bad (a bloody cloud
> would look good atm).
> 
> Nick Sykes.
> 
> 
>
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Date: Sun, 4 Feb 2001 15:22:12 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Richmond Automatic Weather Broadcast

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c8e0d8>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;<SPAN id=__#Ath#SignaturePos__></SPAN>&nbsp;For those living in the 
Sydney area,&nbsp; Richmond Automatic Weather information Broadcast can be heard 
on 347 khz on the LF band.&nbsp; </DIV>
<DIV>Although this service&nbsp;has been spasmodic and operates only when the 
RAAF Base tower is closed, it seems to be more regular in </DIV>
<DIV>the last few days.&nbsp; Given the proximty of storms in the area there 
maybe some interesting observations to listen to in the next few hours.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Grant Searle</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="mailto:gsearle at ozemail.com.au">gsearle at ozemail.com.au</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A recent broadcast about five minutes 
ago</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>
<P>Richmond AWS Aerodrome Weather&nbsp;&nbsp; 0418UTC</P>
<P>Wind&nbsp;Two&nbsp;One Zero degrees&nbsp;Eight knots</P>
<P>QNH&nbsp;(Barometer) One&nbsp; Zero One Two&nbsp;Hectapascals&nbsp;</P>
<P>Temperature Three One </P>
<P>Cloud Scattered at&nbsp; Eight Thousand&nbsp;Six Hundred Feet</P>
<P>Visibility&nbsp; Ten Kilometres</P>
<P>Dewpoint Two Three</P>
<P>Humidity Six&nbsp;Three Percent </P>
<P>Rainfall last ten minutes NIL</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P></FONT></DIV></DIV>
<br>

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Date: Sun, 4 Feb 2001 16:46:37 +1100
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Subject: [aussie-weather] quick question

<x-html>
<HTML><BODY STYLE="font:10pt verdana; border:none;"><DIV>Hi,</DIV> <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV> <DIV>Thanks jane it was just a thought.&nbsp;I have a couple of questions. </DIV> <DIV>firstly in this text what do these two abbreviated headings mean?</DIV> <DIV>cld&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; tx/tn</DIV> <DIV>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; degC </DIV> <DIV>And today we have the following statistics for gabo island. what is vrga</DIV> <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV> <DIV>Gabo Is&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3757&nbsp; 14991&nbsp; 04&nbsp; 0400 40&nbsp; 8&nbsp; SW/021&nbsp; 20 77&nbsp; 1014.9&nbsp; 0.4/06&nbsp; vrga&nbsp; 23&nbsp;&nbsp;--</DIV> <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV> <DIV>sorry about this peoples also wanted to say that there is no rainfall showing up for Frankston at the moment on its aws however it has rained for the last 1.5 hrs so yes it gets curioser and curioser.</DIV> <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV> <DIV>thanks </DIV> <DIV>WW </DIV> <DIV>catherine</DIV>
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Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 11:44:58 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Road Reports 

HI..

Found this site for RACQ.
http://www.racq.com.au/framesets/0_journey_roadreport.htm

Dave




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Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 15:50:05 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Fires 

3.44pm 02/02,

Currently fires in Panuara area , (Blayney), poles on fire, also near
houses. Rural Fire Brigade in attendance..

Also fires at Dubbo/Minore areas, Rifle Range Rd, conductors down causing
fires.

Dave
Bathurst


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From: "T Middleton" <anvil_industries at hotmail.com>
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Date: Sun, 04 Feb 2001 07:41:06 
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Spectacular gust front photos

hi everyone,
i have back some photos of the storm/gust front that went through Melb./Vic 
on 24.1.2001.There are a few more still in my camera though,and the way the 
weather is they may be in there for a while longer.
These can be viewed at
http://www.crosswinds.net/~anvils/Guster_24.1.2001.htm

regards T.Middleton
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Date: Sun, 04 Feb 2001 19:09:38 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Albury,Rutherglen Wodonga Storms 

7.06pm 04/02 

Just received SMS from Bussie in Rutherglen. Flash Flooding occuring in 
Albury and surrounding areas. Bussie has power outage also. Severe 
lightning strikes very close by his house. Also been talking to another
friend in Wodonga advising rain very heavy and continous lightning 
flashes.    

Dave 
Bathurst .

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From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Question emailed to me...
Date: Thu, 1 Feb 2001 22:52:23 -0000
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Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
StormCam:
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ICQ: 17296776
----- Original Message -----
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 01, 2001 9:47 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Question emailed to me...


> Hi Les,
>
> looking at some climatology maps for lightning density and strikes over
the
> globe, there is 0 at the poles, though not to far off (~20deg

Thats at 70S - surely there is enough energy in the atmosphere and a warm
enough sea to set off a few single cells at that latitude - and almost
certainly there will be cold fronts....

The cloudbase will also be lower so there will be proportianatly more CG
strikes than in the tropics.

The freezing level will be lower than at the equator hence there will be
ice - enough ice then there will be lightning. Here at 55N some pretty
insubstantial looking single cell thunderstorms will produce C-G, C-C and
C-A lightning. Places like northern Canada and Norway / Iceland / Siberia
get thunderstorms (some of them severe and even with tornadoes)

Les (UK)

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Date: Sat, 3 Feb 2001 09:10:28 +1000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Floods at Lismore, Severe storm at Tenterfield

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<DIV>Hi All</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Just read this from the nine news:</DIV>
<DIV>
<P>Residents living in the southern parts of Lismore, with a population of 
28,000, have been told to evacuate before the Wilson River peaks at an expected 
9.7 metres at 3pm (AEDT) this afternoon. 
<P>State Emergency Service (SES) spokeswoman Laura Goodin said it was up to 
residents to evacuate to the Southern Cross University which has been taken over 
by the Department of Community Services. 
<P>"We are recommending that people whose homes are threatened by flood waters 
evacuate the Lismore area," Ms Goodin said. 
<P>"For people in south Lismore, it's particularly urgent they make a decision 
now whether they're staying or going as they might be cut off." 
<P>Lismore is still recovering from severe storms, with emergency volunteers 
responding to hundreds of calls for help in the region, mainly related to fallen 
trees, localised flash flooding, and roof and property damage. 
<P>Scores of roads were closed in the area, with conditions contributing to 
numerous car accidents. 
<P>Rain was now easing in the area, the SES said. 
<P>Around 25 per cent of the state has been affected by floods and storms, with 
over 400 SES volunteers helping in storm clean-up, evacuation preparation and 
sandbagging. 
<P>In Tenterfield, emergency volunteers responded to 150 calls for help - mainly 
for fallen trees - in the wake of a severe storm last night. 
<P>Grafton may reach major flood level tomorrow morning and the SES was working 
with residents to protect homes against flooding. 
<P>In Moree the Gwydir River isolated the north western town but flood waters 
are beginning to recede. 
<P>The Tweed River overflowed its levy about 1am (AEDT) today, spilling into 
residential areas of Murwillumbah. 
<P>More than 1,000 people have also been isolated by floods in the Bellingen 
Shire west of Coffs Harbour.</P><BR><FONT size=2>Sam</FONT></DIV>
<br>

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Date: Sun, 4 Feb 2001 20:54:09 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Nice chase on Southern Highlands

A great chase today. Left home about 3pm striking out towards Robertson. On
top of the infamous Macquarie pass and it become apparent that the better
storms were in the Bowral area. At Bowral and there was overflowing gutters
everywhere, flash flooding would have been possible given the amount of
water. Not much in the way of lightning at this stage.

Another storm took my fancy north of Bowral and having to be home by 6pm I
headed for Picton down the freeway. About half way to Picton a huge rain
free base become visible. At the Picton turnoff I stopped and took some
pictures. The main area that had my interest was due east of Picton in the
Appin area. The road to Wollongong heads SE, not a good option as it would
take me into the older part of the storm. I was still surprised by the low
frequency of lightning from such a ominous updraft base.

I headed to Appin and conditions over the next 10 mins intensified rapidly.
I pulled over to get some pics of a small microburst to the west, CG's
within 2 km of me started to become very active. At first it was one every
20-30 seconds, but before long it was a CG every 3-4 secs, thunder was
booming constantly. I actually retreated to the safety of the car that's how
frequent the lightning became.

From Appin I headed home and arrived home under decaying orphaned anvil with
just a little steady rain.

Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com



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Date: Sun, 04 Feb 2001 22:52:25 +1300
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Storms in Australia

Looks good from here on the JMS at 0900UTC time.
Especially along the NSW coast and inland Victoria 

GMS Infrared Satellite Image at 200102040900 UTC

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then send them our way

John Gaul
NZ Thunderstorm Soc


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Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 12:06:10 +1100 (EST)
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Road Reports

> 
> HI..
> 
> Found this site for RACQ.
> http://www.racq.com.au/framesets/0_journey_roadreport.htm
> 
> Dave

Also http://www.nrma.com.au for NSW, although it is very infrequently
updated (the RACQ site is better for northern border areas).

Blair

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Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 11:29:15 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Road Reports - Websites ? 

HI all..

Would anyone know a website where road reports are posted, I'm interested
in QLD and NSW..

I did see some time ago where a site was posted on this list..

Thanks

Dave
Bathurst


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Date: Fri, 02 Feb 2001 09:15:28 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] SE Queensland Rainfall and drought

Dear SE Queenslandites,

What effect do you expect from a single heavy rainfall episode like this 
(assuming you go back to previous conditions at the end of it) on the 
drought you guys are having up there?
Miguel de Salas

School of Plant Science
University of Tasmania
GPO Box 252-55
Hobart
TAS 7001
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Date: Sun, 04 Feb 2001 11:00:58 -0000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Re: Nice chase on Southern Highlands

Hi Michael,
I was on the other side of this storm today, on the hills west of 
Camden.  Took a few photo's and some video.  I've put some captures 
from the video up at: 
http://www7.ewebcity.com/nwweather/reports_reports.asp?id=20

Its the first time I've really chased anything in the Sydney region 
and have decided that chasing around Tamworth is much easier - up 
there the roads are pretty straight, there aren't so many of them, 
and there aren't so many trees in the way! Not knowing the roads very 
well made life difficult at times today, but I had a good day all the 
same.  

Rhett Blanch


--- In aussie-weather at y..., "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at o...> wrote:
> A great chase today. Left home about 3pm striking out towards 
Robertson. On
> top of the infamous Macquarie pass and it become apparent that the 
better
> storms were in the Bowral area. At Bowral and there was overflowing 
gutters
> everywhere, flash flooding would have been possible given the 
amount of
> water. Not much in the way of lightning at this stage.
> 
> Another storm took my fancy north of Bowral and having to be home 
by 6pm I
> headed for Picton down the freeway. About half way to Picton a huge 
rain
> free base become visible. At the Picton turnoff I stopped and took 
some
> pictures. The main area that had my interest was due east of Picton 
in the
> Appin area. The road to Wollongong heads SE, not a good option as 
it would
> take me into the older part of the storm. I was still surprised by 
the low
> frequency of lightning from such a ominous updraft base.
> 
> I headed to Appin and conditions over the next 10 mins intensified 
rapidly.
> I pulled over to get some pics of a small microburst to the west, 
CG's
> within 2 km of me started to become very active. At first it was 
one every
> 20-30 seconds, but before long it was a CG every 3-4 secs, thunder 
was
> booming constantly. I actually retreated to the safety of the car 
that's how
> frequent the lightning became.
> 
> From Appin I headed home and arrived home under decaying orphaned 
anvil with
> just a little steady rain.
> 
> Michael Thompson
> http://ozthunder.com


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Date: Sat, 3 Feb 2001 11:39:31 +1000
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] North Pine Dam was Further Heavy Rainfall Totals

Anthony,

I was thinking the same thing. I just had a look at the B.O.M. river height
site at

 http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ60286.html

It shows the North Pine dam at 10:30 am today as being .41m and steady below
the spillway.
Nothing there about Lake Kurwongbah, although I have seen it mentioned
before.

Regards

Greg Curtis

----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Spierings <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
Sent: 03 February, 2001 11:18 AM
Subject: [aussie-weather] North Pine Dam was Further Heavy Rainfall Totals


> Ben,
>
> Have you had a chance to slip up to North Pine Dam?  If so, what is the
> water level?
>
> Regads,
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Ben Quinn [mailto:benquinn at optushome.com.au]
> Sent: Saturday, 3 February 2001 10:52 AM
> To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
> Subject: [aussie-weather] Further Heavy Rainfall Totals
>
>
> Hi Everyone,
>
> Some more impressive rainfall totals to 9am in SE QLD this morning - some
of
> the highest are :
>
> Natural Bridge - 258mm (!)
> Springbrook - 173mm
> Darlington - 171mm
> Hinze Dam - 148mm
> Mt Tamborine - 122mm
> Oakington - 119mm
> Woolooga - 110mm
> Mt Glorious - 106
>
>
> There were also some decent totals in central and northern QLD, although
> most of the big ones were in northern QLD.  Some of the highest are:
>
> Low Isles - 106mm
> Port Douglas - 99mm
> Wrothan park - 92mm
> WIllis Is - 81
> Cooktown - 84
> Croydon - 69mm
>
>
> My dads property in the Wide Bay and Burnett district recorded over 100mm
to
> 9am, with unofficial totals as high as 125mm reported from surrounding
> areas, leading to quite a bit of local flooding (bridges underwater etc)
>
> Adam Cole from Warwick just reported a number of bridges are underwater in
> Warwick as the floodwaters in the Condamine River make their way
downstream.
> A station upstream of Warwick is reporting moderate flooding in the river
> heights list on the BOM site, although i don't know how reliable that is.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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Date: Sun, 04 Feb 2001 22:53:16 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Storms SW of Sydney

Hi all,

Mario myself and a female companion chased today. We first headed out 
towards Richmond where we observed storms developing all along the ranges. 
I took fancy of the storm nearer Richmond on the ranges and we chased 
towards it. After getting to the top west of Kurrajong, the storm was still 
strong but then began to weaken. Some nice cg's but nothing spectacular. I 
think being a pulse storm, it was close to severe for a short period of 
time. It had some excellent structure.

Next step after this is we headed down and saw the towers exploding down S. 
So just headed from Richmond straight down to Camden. From here we could 
see a convergence line developing a cumulonimbus developing of a size 
nothing compared to the massive system developing over the uninhabited area 
W of Camden. The anvil in this area became quite huge too. This storm 
developed rapidly along the convergence line sbut collapsed. We then took 
fancy of another stronger tower developing SE of Camden. This developed an 
awesome looking base structure. There were frequent cg's as described by 
others. However, we took a wrong turn and ended up in an undesirable 
position. But nevertheless, we got some good footage of the green tinge. 
This storm persisted and must have been severe based on the outflow winds. 
This outflow eventually kicked up some more action further to the N. We 
headed towards Richmond and passed through some blinding rain around 
Penrith. At Castlereagh, we stopped to observed a cumulonimbus almost 
overhead. This was quite spectacular. The Penrith cell was dying.

The storms today although short-lived, were quite spectacular. It also 
provided an opportunity to observe outflow boundaries and convergence and 
storms developing along them. I find this quite fascinating as you are 
involved with nowcasting - watching every step the storms are making.

We ended up the day eating out. An enjoyable day.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au


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Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 23:33:42 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Off again

Hey all,

I'm gonna be out of the loop again for the bext couple of weeks, and won't
be online. Any chase reports though for the newsletter, can you email me
personally at pyole at australia.edu

PaulY

Paul Yole
Joint State Representative - ASWA Victoria
Communications officer - Murtoa CFA
BH: 0418 369 256 AH: (035) 385-2699


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Date: Wed, 31 Jan 2001 19:59:00 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Sydney Rainfall and Flash Flooding

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.600" name=GENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>No problems here in the Southern Illawarra, the gutters 
handled the 6mm deluge easy. Very abrupt cut off from the rain to dry just south 
of Sydney. The heavier falls were actually aligned along the cloud mass edge, a 
not uncommon situation. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The rain we did get here was actually in the form drizzle 
allied to the southerly stream, not the larger cloud mass associated with the 
upper level low over NE NSW.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Michael</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=tornado at bigpond.net.au href="mailto:tornado at bigpond.net.au">Matt 
  Smith</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  title=aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com">aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 31 January 2001 
  8:54</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [aussie-weather] Sydney 
  Rainfall and Flash Flooding</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>Bankstown has just cracked 150.6mm just before 9am (whats that 
  about 6 inches to our american friends?) 
  <P>9am totals will be interesting. Roads flooded all over the shop, traffic is 
  chaos, cars konked out in water, roads closed due to flooding, you name it its 
  all happening. Ok enough posts by me. 
  <P>Matt 
  <P>Matt Smith wrote: 
  <BLOCKQUOTE TYPE="CITE">Hey Dann ! 
    <P>Yep widespread 100mm falls throughout since 3pm yesterday.. it rained all 
    night and still raining now! And poor Matt Pearce has shot up to QLD missing 
    the storms yesterday, and the biggest rain event in a while ! Maybe he 
    should leave more often ;) 
    <P>Matt Smith <BR><A 
    href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com">http://www.sydneystormchasers.com</A> 
    <BR>&nbsp; 
    <P>dann weatherhead wrote: 
    <BLOCKQUOTE TYPE="CITE">
      <STYLE></STYLE>
      <FONT size=-1>Well i am not sure if many know, but sydney has been 
      absolutely pounded with torrential rain overnight, some centres recording 
      80mm or so. THere is widespread flashflooding, landslides, 12 car pile 
      ups.I can't remember rain figures quite like these.</FONT> <FONT 
      size=-1><A 
      href="http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65066.shtml">http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65066.shtml</A></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
    <P><BR><BR><TT>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:</TT> 
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Date: Sat, 03 Feb 2001 13:23:03 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] North Pine Dam was Further Heavy Rainfall Totals

Hi Ben,

I must say I share the same enthusiasm as you as I have always been 
interested in floods and I suppose this somehow lead me into the interest 
into storms and then storm chasing later became an interest.

I find it quite spectacular to see rivers in flood. I however feel sorry 
for those who have to clean up after the floods - unfortunately, 
traditionally towns were built near rivers and so on flood plains.

I suppose we are one part of nature and the the true Australian spirit 
comes out in these times of need.

Jimmy Deguara

At 12:11 PM 3/02/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Greg, Anthony
>
>Sure have - i drove by around 5am Friday morning (yes, i am that much of a
>flood freak that i was out there before the first rays of sunlight), but was
>quite dissapointed :(
>
>Wow i didn't even think to look for North Pine Dam in those river heighs
>(derrr) - thanks Greg! Interesting to note that Somerset dam is just below
>the flood gates, with Wivenhoe not all that far behind it, and rising -
>might be worth a drive out there if they end up opening the gates
>
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Greg Curtis" <curtisg at ecn.net.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
>Sent: Saturday, February 03, 2001 11:39 AM
>Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] North Pine Dam was Further Heavy Rainfall
>Totals
>
>
> > Anthony,
> >
> > I was thinking the same thing. I just had a look at the B.O.M. river
>height
> > site at
> >
> >  http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ60286.html
> >
> > It shows the North Pine dam at 10:30 am today as being .41m and steady
>below
> > the spillway.
> > Nothing there about Lake Kurwongbah, although I have seen it mentioned
> > before.
> >
> > Regards
> >
> > Greg Curtis
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Anthony Spierings <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
> > Sent: 03 February, 2001 11:18 AM
> > Subject: [aussie-weather] North Pine Dam was Further Heavy Rainfall Totals
> >
> >
> > > Ben,
> > >
> > > Have you had a chance to slip up to North Pine Dam?  If so, what is the
> > > water level?
> > >
> > > Regads,
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Ben Quinn [mailto:benquinn at optushome.com.au]
> > > Sent: Saturday, 3 February 2001 10:52 AM
> > > To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
> > > Subject: [aussie-weather] Further Heavy Rainfall Totals
> > >
> > >
> > > Hi Everyone,
> > >
> > > Some more impressive rainfall totals to 9am in SE QLD this morning -
>some
> > of
> > > the highest are :
> > >
> > > Natural Bridge - 258mm (!)
> > > Springbrook - 173mm
> > > Darlington - 171mm
> > > Hinze Dam - 148mm
> > > Mt Tamborine - 122mm
> > > Oakington - 119mm
> > > Woolooga - 110mm
> > > Mt Glorious - 106
> > >
> > >
> > > There were also some decent totals in central and northern QLD, although
> > > most of the big ones were in northern QLD.  Some of the highest are:
> > >
> > > Low Isles - 106mm
> > > Port Douglas - 99mm
> > > Wrothan park - 92mm
> > > WIllis Is - 81
> > > Cooktown - 84
> > > Croydon - 69mm
> > >
> > >
> > > My dads property in the Wide Bay and Burnett district recorded over
>100mm
> > to
> > > 9am, with unofficial totals as high as 125mm reported from surrounding
> > > areas, leading to quite a bit of local flooding (bridges underwater etc)
> > >
> > > Adam Cole from Warwick just reported a number of bridges are underwater
>in
> > > Warwick as the floodwaters in the Condamine River make their way
> > downstream.
> > > A station upstream of Warwick is reporting moderate flooding in the
>river
> > > heights list on the BOM site, although i don't know how reliable that
>is.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
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-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au


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Date: Sat, 03 Feb 2001 18:51:01 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ruth Rosenhek <ruthr at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Info on Tenterfield Weather
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<x-flowed>
hi.  I'm wondering if you can tell me how much rainfall there was in the 
recent storm in Tenterfield and what event frequency this was (ie.  1 in 10 
year event versus 1 in 100 and so on.)   Do you have these figures for the 
Timbarra plateau as well up on the mountain?  Thanks.

sincerely, Ruth Rosenhek
Box 368, Lismore, NSW 2480
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 00:47:20 +1100
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Images of Vic's weather


Pictures from today in northern Victoria.

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_02_01.htm

I'll put the real images up tomorrow (or is that today?)

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Sun, 04 Feb 2001 22:12:27 +0800
Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aussie-weather] Closing down list


Hi everyone,

After much consideration and input from others, I have decided to shutdown
the yahoo egroups
list, the ongoing saga on which list to use has just dragged on, and in the
interest of 
everyone that loves to talk about Australian weather like we do, its much
better to have just 
one list again.

I know that a poll to vote for one of the lists was put up, but as people
have stated, the poll 
is flawed, not everyone could vote, and as of today, only 20 have voted.

We still have 169 subscribers on the old list
(aussie-weather at world.std.com) when I checked it the
other day, so most of you wont have to do anything and will still continue
to receive emails
from there, for those that have unsubscribed or for the new people that
have found their way
on the yahoo egroups list, you can subscribe to the original list by doing
this:

send an email to Majordomo at world.std.com

and type "subscribe aussie-weather" in the body of the email

or try going to http://world.std.com/~dhart and you should be able to
subscribe there too.

When you've done that, it will ask you to confirm it, and then you should
be on the list.

Once you have subscribed, you can send emails to the list, the address is:

aussie-weather at world.std.com 

So this should be the last email on this Yahoo Egroups list, and we hope to
see you back on the
original list again.

Thanks.

Jacob

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Just letting the people know here on the original list that are not on the
yahoo egroups list, 
that I have closed that down, and we are back here again, its way better to
have just one list again.

Thanks.

Jacob
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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, <R.Kollmorgen at bom.gov.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Severe storm NE Victoria
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 07:43:20 +1100
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Morning all,

Images (thumbnails only atm - I'll link the images tonight) of yesterday's
severe storm in the NE of the state are at
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_02_01.htm

I got from the south side to the NW side of this severe multicell (the gust
front looked to extend from Mulwala to Albury which is ~80kms) through about
17kms of torrentially heavy (>100mm/hr "can't see the end of your bonnet")
rain and watched curved inflow bands, but did not observe anything else.
Visually, the structure was just amazing!!!!  and although the closest thing
to hail I got was a dozen or so drops on the NW side almost the size of the
palm of my hand, there was that 'green tinge'.

The ABC reported that 'm' word again this morning with 'm tornadoes' being
sighted by residents.

...and a report from Ross Buscall from Rutherglen:-
Just a little report on the storm late yesterday. It was one of the most
violent storms I've seen for many years lasting well over an hour with cg's
striking the ground extremely close by. Went for a bit of a drive afterwards
but couldn't see any damage. There was a fire started approximately 2km's
south of town by a lightning strike which burnt an area about the size of a
basketball court before the CFA and rain got to it. After hitting 35.4
yesterday and a dew point of 22.9 before the storm came you could feel that
something was going to happen. I received several calls from locals saying,
"Hey Bussy have a look...". But it was too late I was already out there.
It rolled in from the N/NE and was very slow moving and very low and the
darkest storm I'd seen for a long time. Just as the leading edge crept over
town the lights etc all came on and it was only just after 6pm when there's
normally plenty of light. The show began just before 6.30pm when a gust of
wind clocked at 67.6kmh from the north hit then closely followed by very
heavy rain. At 6.33pm the Davis was recording 2.4mm per minute with
extremely close cg's as mentioned with at least one per second. Power was
lost not long after and was never restored until 11.45pm (approx 5 hours).
Areas affected by severe weather according to TXU (power company) - Wodonga,
Barnawartha, Barnawartha North, Indigo, Indigo Valley, Chiltern, Chiltern
Valley, Rutherglen and Wahgunyah.
31.2 millimetres was recorded in approx 30 minutes.
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)

Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------

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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:09:32 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: [aussie-weather] SE Queensland Rainfall.

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>From: David Jones <d.jones at bom.gov.au>
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>Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 08:37:13 +1100 
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [aussie-weather] SE Queensland Rainfall.
>
>To 6:48am local time SPRINGBROOK TM (QLD) has clocked up 
>368.6mm, and counting. If this keeps up a 400mm fall for 24hours
>is certainly on the cards. This is a long way short of a state record
>(usually given as Beerwah (Crohamhurst) 907.0 mm in 1893), but still one
>impressive fall none-the-less.
>
>Those of you in NSW and Queensland better watch out
>for a migration of frustrated weather observers from Victoria if you don't
>send some rain
>our way soon!
>
>Cheers,
>
>David.
>
>   
>                                                              
>Dr David Jones                                               
>                                                            
>Climate Analysis Section                                   
>National Climate Centre                                    
>Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
>GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
>Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425  
>email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               
>
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:09:50 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: [aussie-weather] conditions at Tallai


>
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> Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 09:11:29 +1000
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
> Subject: [aussie-weather] conditions at Tallai
>
> Hi All
>  
> Conditons now : Light - moderate wind and no rain. Last heavy fall was this
> morning around 6am - would've lasted 10 mins.  I have heard reports on the
> radio that Springbrook/Mudgeeraba road is closed, Tweed river has broken it's
> leve banks, and Wilson river at Lismore is expected to reach 9m. 
>  
> Last night here we had strong wind/rain. The creek rose to it about the same
> level it did in the afternoon. Nearly stood on a baby carpet python on our
> way up to the house. He was only about 40cm long.
>  
> Rainfall here to 9am is 215mm (including the 9am -3pm rainfall of 64mm). 
> Rainfall so far from this system is 331.5mm.
>  
> cheers
> Sam
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:10:49 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: [aussie-weather] Lismore going under

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>From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
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>Date: Fri, 02 Feb 2001 10:19:43 +1100
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>Subject: [aussie-weather] Lismore going under
>
>Hi all,
>
>The Wilsons River in Lismore (pop. 40,000) has risen higher than the 
>initial BoM flood warning forecasts and had now started in enter the CBD. 
>Evacuations are commencing.
>
>Rain has eased to just a few showers but all the big falls have already 
>occurred. With much of the catchment receiving 300-400mm, it's no surprise 
>to see Lismore hit.
>
>We ended up with 261mm for the 24 hours to 9am today, after 95mm the 
>previous 24 hours. 200 of that 261 fell in 11 hours 9am to 8pm yesterday.
>
>Michael
>
>  =============================================================
>  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>  =============================================================
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:11:11 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: Re: [aussie-weather] SE Queensland Rainfall.

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>Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 10:30:55 +1000
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] SE Queensland Rainfall.
>
>Hi David, Everyone
>
>The BOM recorded a max wind gust of 120km/h at Cape Moreton, NE of Brisbane
>last night.  It was a brilliant wild night here in Redcliffe  - although i
>didn't get any prolonged heavy rain, the wind was just awesome.  I drove
>down to the beach at about 2:30am and experienced winds gusting up to an
>probably just over 50 knots, with sustained winds of 40 knots for up to 10
>minutes at a time!
>
>Some info from local news reports:  15 000 people lost power throughout
>Brisbane the Gold and Sunshine coast from trees falling over power lines,
>and there has been reports of wind damage on the eastern downs and around Mt
>Glorious.  Gold Coast SES had 100 calls for help overnight, and around 50
>from Brisbane.
>
>Some of the rain totals to 9am are HUGE
>
>http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDO41Q01.html
>
>Springbrook is listed there (unless hey correct it by the time you read this
>email) as having 257mm to 9am - which is a bit strange considering they had
>368mm to ~7am :)
>
>
>BTW - as i write this email it's absolutely pouring down - the heaviest rain
>here from the whole system - winds are up around the 30-35 knot mark too
>
>
>
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "David Jones" <d.jones at bom.gov.au>
>To: "Aussie Weather Digest (E-mail)" <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
>Sent: Friday, February 02, 2001 7:37 AM
>Subject: [aussie-weather] SE Queensland Rainfall.
>
>
>> To 6:48am local time SPRINGBROOK TM (QLD) has clocked up
>> 368.6mm, and counting. If this keeps up a 400mm fall for 24hours
>> is certainly on the cards. This is a long way short of a state record
>> (usually given as Beerwah (Crohamhurst) 907.0 mm in 1893), but still one
>> impressive fall none-the-less.
>>
>> Those of you in NSW and Queensland better watch out
>> for a migration of frustrated weather observers from Victoria if you don't
>> send some rain
>> our way soon!
>>
>> Cheers,
>>
>> David.
>>
>>
>>
>> Dr David Jones
>>
>> Climate Analysis Section
>> National Climate Centre
>> Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678
>> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
>> Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425
>> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>>
>>
>>
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>>
>>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:11:24 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: [aussie-weather] SE QLD rainfall

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>Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 14:19:06 +1100 
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [aussie-weather] SE QLD rainfall
>
>>Some of the rain totals to 9am are HUGE
>>
>>http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDO41Q01.html
>>
>>Springbrook is listed there (unless hey correct it by the time you read
>this
>>email) as having 257mm to 9am - which is a bit strange considering they had
>>368mm to ~7am :)
>Ben,
>
>there are three Springbrook observing sites at 600, 780 and 1000m.
>I "think" the public weather one (on the Bulletin) is Springbrook Road which
>is at 780m.
>So far today, there is about a 30% difference between the rainfall at the
>lower site to 
>the upper site, which fits with the reported 257mm to 9am on the public
>bulletin.
>
>Cheers,
>
>David.
>                                        
>Dr David Jones                                               
>                                                            
>Climate Analysis Section                                   
>National Climate Centre                                    
>Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
>GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
>Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425  
>email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:11:35 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: Re: [aussie-weather] severe thunderstorm warnings

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>From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
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>Date: Fri, 02 Feb 2001 14:19:01 +1100
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] severe thunderstorm warnings
>
>Hi Laurier
>
>I, dont mean to beat this thread to death although I find it all 
>interesting.
>
>you wrote:
>>I'm sorry, David and Blair, but I don't agree.
>
>As I indicated in my last reply to Michael Bath's email, I agree, in 
>principle, with what you (and he) are saying. However I am of the oppinion 
>that 'uniformity', cop out or not, is a major reason for the current system. 
>But not the only reason.
>
>Furthermore, I would argue that the radar coverage is sufficient, as the 
>basis of a warning service, in areas beyond just Sydney and Grafton (even 
>though these are the only 24 hour S Band radars in NSW). It is generally 
>pretty clear to me when big storms are firing in the Hunter valley!.
>
>>If you apply this principle, why give Sydney the benefit of
>>radar-based storm warnings? Shouldn't it wait until the rest of NSW
>>can enjoy the same life-saving advantages?
>
>If we assume that the tools (radar) are available and the Bureau opted for a 
>warning service for Illawarra, Sydney, Hunter, Mid north coast, Northern 
>Rivers, when should warnings be issued? When pink and red blobs show up 
>anywhere on radar? If the Bureau go out on a limb and start issuing 
>warnings, as standard procedure, when a storm looks severe on radar, I'd 
>hate to think of the number of warnings that would be issued on some days. 
>It might work for the National Weather Service. But are we to assume that 4 
>or so staff will be able to keep track of all individual severe storms, 
>their likely track / identifying which towns / cities are in immediate 
>danger, factoring in rapidly changing conditions etc in providing a 
>continual stream of updated info to the public concerned in warning specific 
>localities over such a broad area (ie the raison d'etre for a warning 
>service). Maybe I am wrong but I don't see that they could cope at the 
>current time.
>
>The argument for Sydney being given priority above other areas? - In some 
>official Bureau document (can't remember which), I recall reading something 
>along the lines of - Sydney was given priority due to its large population 
>and relative vulnerability to severe storms. I think that is fair enough 
>given the current situation. If i lived in Casino I might disagree :-)
>_________________________________________________________________________
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:12:44 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: [aussie-weather] Awesome Weather!!! + flood photos

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>Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 16:39:32 +1000
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [aussie-weather] Awesome Weather!!! + flood photos
>
>Hi Everyone,
>
>The near cyclonic like weather has continued here today, with 3 VERY squally
>showers/short periods of rain moving through.  In the last one (about 10
>mins ago) i had winds gusting to 40 knots for about 20 seconds!!! These
>things are just like storms, but without the lightning :(
>
>I have uploaded a few photos i took this morning of the flooded South Pine
>River, a short distance SW of me.  You can view them in full size here
>
>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/ben/020201_01.shtml
>1 through to 13
>
>Or here, thumbnailed in the preliminary report
>
>http://www.bsch.au.com/reports/02_02_01.shtml
>
>
>
>
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:12:51 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: [aussie-weather] Some notes from January 2001

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>Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 18:48:49 +1100 (EST)
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [aussie-weather] Some notes from January 2001
>
>As most of you would no doubt be aware, January 2001 was an 
>exceptional month for heat in much of the southern half of Australia.
>
>Of the 103 stations I monitor, 40 had mean maxima for January in the
>top 10% on record. 13 of these had the highest value in the post-1910
>record; eight in SA (all stations except for Adelaide (2nd), 
>Woomera (2nd), Mount Gambier (5th) and Robe (8th)), Thargomindah in
>Queensland, Williamtown in NSW and Mildura, Nhill and Gabo Island 
>in Victoria. The 'top 10%' zone covered south-eastern WA (Kalgoorlie 
>was 2nd to 1993), all of SA and Victoria except for small pockets in 
>eastern Victoria, most of NSW except for the northeast, and parts
>of SW Queensland.
>
>Generally speaking, it was the hottest January on record over most
>of SA; the hottest since 1939 over north-western and north-central
>Victoria and adjacent NSW; the hottest since 1981 in the rest of
>Victoria; the hottest since 1952 or 1979 in parts of inland NSW.
>The extent of the large positive anomalies is greater than in any
>of those years (with 1979 having the most in common with this year),
>although 1939 was more intense over the region except for SA north
>and west of Adelaide.
>
>For the major cities:
>
>Adelaide	33.7 (2nd; 1908 34.2)
>Melbourne	29.1 (7th; highest 1908 31.0)
>Canberra	31.0 (6th; highest 1979 31.7)
>Sydney		27.3 (11th; highest 1896 29.2)
>
>A lot of record highs for individual days were narrowly missed but few
>were broken at stations with long records.
>
>Port Pirie had a mean maximum 6.6 degrees above average (one of 
>several SA stations exceeding +6). This appears to be the largest 
>positive anomaly since 6.7 at Oberon in January 1942 (there are a 
>few others since then in the database but they look sus at a first  
>viewing). The Australian record for that appears to be +8.7 at
>Jerrys Plains for February 1926.
>
>Mildura set a Victorian state record high minimum for any month 
>with 30.9.
>
>Two noteworthy long runs, both station records, were 24 days over 40
>at Marree and 35 days (and continuing) over 30 at Mildura. The
>Mildura figure is only the second instance (after Wodonga in 
>January 1959( of a Victorian station reaching 30 on every day of
>a calendar month. (Wodonga ended up with a run of 45 30+ days;
>I suspect that is a Victorian record, that must be under threat
>given the current progs, but that is very difficult to check).
>
>Melbourne is highly likely to have at least its third highest mean 
>maximum temperature for a summer, and has a fair chance of doing 
>better than that - a February mean of 28.5 will be needed for 2nd,
>29.5 for 1st, and given that it looks like we'll reach the 9th with
>something sitting in the 33-34 range....Melbourne (17.8) also recorded
>its highest mean minimum on record for January (something I haven't 
>checked yet for other sites; this record is assisted by urbanisation),
>although February 1997 was warmer.
>
>
>Regional averages for various areas (ranking) are:
>
>Australia	mean 5th, max 6th, min 4th
>Southern Aus	mean, max and min 1st
>(south of 26 S)
>WA		max 17th, min 4th, mean 7th
>SA		mean, max and min 1st
>Victoria	max and mean 2nd, min 1st
>NSW		max 1st, min 4th, mean 2nd
>Tasmania	max 8th, min 5th, mean 6th
>
>(all these are for the post-1950 period, so 1939 isn't included)
>
>Blair
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:13:14 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: [aussie-weather] Re: New poll for aussie-weather

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>Date: Fri, 02 Feb 2001 08:52:39 -0000
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [aussie-weather] Re: New poll for aussie-weather
>
>Matt
>Your sentiments are entirely valid. Future shareholders of The 
>Weather Company may wish to treat the list as a commercial 
>vehicle meaning our current policy of hands-off hosting  could 
>change. You are quite right and this certainly should be 
>considered. Ideally the list should be run by a non-profit 
>organisation.
>
>Banning people from the list is something for the moderator and 
>we shouldn't have a say. We would hope this would operate in 
>practice. We are not immune from criticism any more than the 
>Bureau of Met is. They handle criticism on the list well and it's 
>almost always settled through logical discussion. This should 
>be the case no matter whom the criticism is directed at. But, 
>again, a valid point.
>
>Mark
>
>--- In aussie-weather at y..., Matt Smith <tornado at b...> wrote:
>> Same with me Michael, it wont let me in unless i am a Yahoo 
>member and all that
>> carp ;)
>> 
>> I vote for world.std.com
>> I love what TWC has offered, but the fact that a company can 
>pontentially "own"
>> the list is unsettling, what if we ever said something bad about 
>TWC on it? im
>> sure they would not like that and would ban us from the list, 
>and would they
>> start advertising on the list seeing as they would own it? the 
>possibility is
>> there.. a large number of weather enthusiasts, there business 
>is the
>> weather..........
>> Just my thoughts.
>> 
>> Matt Smith
>
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:13:21 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: Re: [aussie-weather] Lismore going under

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>FILETIME=[ADCF6220:01C08D0B]
>From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
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>Date: Fri, 02 Feb 2001 22:31:26 +1100
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] Lismore going under
>
>Hi All!!
>Well, as Michael said, Lismore did go under!! At around 7.30pm it appears to 
>have peaked at 10.42m. Major flooding has occured with the CBD underwater. 
>Michael and I went into Lismore this afternoon to look around, get photos 
>and video. I had never seen Lismore flood before (that I could remember) and 
>it was an amazing sight!! And well overdue. This was an amazing experience 
>for me and I won't forget it. The currents in the CBD were strong at times 
>(almost knocked us over a few times) as all the water rushed to fill in the 
>city centre. Until the river receeds, the I believe the pumps can't get the 
>water out of the city centre. It's still raining here, but is forecast to 
>ease tomorrow. What a few weeks it's been up here!! The Casino Beast, the 
>tornado on monday, and now this!! For a new weather enthosiust, I seem to 
>have seen it all!!
>
>Dave Ellem
>
>
>>From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
>>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>>To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>>Subject: [aussie-weather] Lismore going under
>>Date: Fri, 02 Feb 2001 10:19:43 +1100
>>
>>Hi all,
>>
>>The Wilsons River in Lismore (pop. 40,000) has risen higher than the
>>initial BoM flood warning forecasts and had now started in enter the CBD.
>>Evacuations are commencing.
>>
>>Rain has eased to just a few showers but all the big falls have already
>>occurred. With much of the catchment receiving 300-400mm, it's no surprise
>>to see Lismore hit.
>>
>>We ended up with 261mm for the 24 hours to 9am today, after 95mm the
>>previous 24 hours. 200 of that 261 fell in 11 hours 9am to 8pm yesterday.
>>
>>Michael
>>
>>   =============================================================
>>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>>   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>>   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>>   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>>   =============================================================
>>
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:13:30 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: Re: [aussie-weather] severe thunderstorm warnings

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>Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 10:36:39 -0500
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] severe thunderstorm warnings
>
>ALL:
>
>> I, dont mean to beat this thread to death although I find it all 
>> interesting.
>> 
>> you wrote:
>> >I'm sorry, David and Blair, but I don't agree.
>> 
>> As I indicated in my last reply to Michael Bath's email, I agree, in 
>> principle, with what you (and he) are saying. However I am of the
>oppinion 
>> that 'uniformity', cop out or not, is a major reason for the current
>system. 
>> But not the only reason.
>
>                        much deleted
>
>I continue to watch this debate from the sidelines.  The sidelines are
>where I belong in this debate and I will not take sides.  However, I have a
>few comments.  First, radar seems to be center stage and that is
>understandable.  However, radar is not the only tool.  A spotter program is
>essential for a well functioning warning program.  NEXRAD was never seen as
>a tool that eliminates the need for spotters or other information for that
>matter.  Obviously, spotter training is essential.  In 1978/1979 I was
>asked by the NWS to put together a 35 mm slide spotter training program
>that would transfer all we had learned at NSSL in the storm intercept
>program to the NWS meteorologists and to the public volunteer spotters. 
>With the help of Chuck Doswell and Al Moller we did that over about a years
>time.  That has sense been upgraded by an "advanced" spotter training
>program.  
>
>Then there is the use of satellites for severe storm detection.  Albeit,
>satellites can not match the radar, however, there are visual and IR
>signatures such as the rate of anvil expansion and the "enhanced V"
>cloud-top severe storm signatures that are somewhat useful for severe storm
>warning programs.  Finally, there are "signatures" in conventional data
>which fall into the forecast area but are still important and useful in
>conjunction with the other sensors in the warning program.  These
>indicators are surface pressure "rise-fall couplets", locally backed winds,
>moisture convergence, jet streaks aloft, etc.  With the environmental clues
>in place, then we know the severe storms can relatively easily be sustained
>and it will not take much in the way of radar or other indicators to "trip
>the warning switch".
>
>Just some thoughts.
>
>Les
>
>************************
>Leslie R. Lemon
>Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
>Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
>Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
>E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:13:55 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: [aussie-weather] Re: Was SEQ Rainfall. Interstaters

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>Date: Sat, 3 Feb 2001 09:10:47 +1100
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [aussie-weather] Re: Was SEQ Rainfall. Interstaters
>
>Hey there pples,
>
>You raise an interesting point David....my last TWO storm chasers have seen
>me having to venture well into NSW.  The first was a 2,400km weekend drive
>to Bathurst/Orange area and the second (last weekend with Chris Gribben) was
>up to Hay and then across to Griffith and Bathurst again.  (Although I did
>see one of the best lightning shows I've seen in Echuca on Thursday night
>last week and was very close to being struck by lightning with 3 separate
>streamers from two separate strikes coming off a fence which was just 3
>metres away).
>
>One thing of note regarding Vic weather at the moment.....we aren't going to
>see much in terms of decent storms until the upper levels start to cool
>again.....500mb temps have been hovering around -5C for the last few days
>and this is just plain ridiculous.....bring on the -28C at 500mb that we get
>in winter I say (preferably with summer time surface temps...hehe).  You
>know we are seriously storm starved when we start to dream like this......
>
>Regards,
>
>Macca-Wx (SDS)
>
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: David Jones <d.jones at bom.gov.au>
>To: Aussie Weather Digest (E-mail) <aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com>
>Sent: Friday, February 02, 2001 8:37 AM
>Subject: [aussie-weather] SE Queensland Rainfall.
>
>
>> To 6:48am local time SPRINGBROOK TM (QLD) has clocked up
>> 368.6mm, and counting. If this keeps up a 400mm fall for 24hours
>> is certainly on the cards. This is a long way short of a state record
>> (usually given as Beerwah (Crohamhurst) 907.0 mm in 1893), but still one
>> impressive fall none-the-less.
>>
>> Those of you in NSW and Queensland better watch out
>> for a migration of frustrated weather observers from Victoria if you don't
>> send some rain
>> our way soon!
>>
>> Cheers,
>>
>> David.
>>
>>
>>
>> Dr David Jones
>>
>> Climate Analysis Section
>> National Climate Centre
>> Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678
>> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
>> Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425
>> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>>
>>
>>
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>>
>>
>>
>>
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:15:22 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: [aussie-weather] Further Heavy Rainfall Totals

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>Date: Sat, 3 Feb 2001 10:52:12 +1000
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [aussie-weather] Further Heavy Rainfall Totals
>
>Hi Everyone,
>
>Some more impressive rainfall totals to 9am in SE QLD this morning - some of
>the highest are :
>
>Natural Bridge - 258mm (!)
>Springbrook - 173mm
>Darlington - 171mm
>Hinze Dam - 148mm
>Mt Tamborine - 122mm
>Oakington - 119mm
>Woolooga - 110mm
>Mt Glorious - 106
>
>
>There were also some decent totals in central and northern QLD, although
>most of the big ones were in northern QLD.  Some of the highest are:
>
>Low Isles - 106mm
>Port Douglas - 99mm
>Wrothan park - 92mm
>WIllis Is - 81
>Cooktown - 84
>Croydon - 69mm
>
>
>My dads property in the Wide Bay and Burnett district recorded over 100mm to
>9am, with unofficial totals as high as 125mm reported from surrounding
>areas, leading to quite a bit of local flooding (bridges underwater etc)
>
>Adam Cole from Warwick just reported a number of bridges are underwater in
>Warwick as the floodwaters in the Condamine River make their way downstream.
>A station upstream of Warwick is reporting moderate flooding in the river
>heights list on the BOM site, although i don't know how reliable that is.
>
>
>
>
>
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:15:29 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: [aussie-weather] Lismore Floods and Education

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>Date: Sat, 03 Feb 2001 01:11:16 -0000
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [aussie-weather] Lismore Floods and Education
>
>From all of the reports in the papers and on the radio it sounds like 
>there may have been a few people unprepared for this flooding as they 
>have not experienced this situation in this area before due to the 
>lack of floods here over the past few years. My family have lived in 
>the area for the last 26 years. We just missed the '74 flood but I 
>was living at Green Pigeon at the foot of the Border Ranges about 
>15km outside of Kyogle with the creek right at my doorstep during the 
>two floods that happened in April '89. Years ago it was a normal 
>occurance to have the sort of floods of the the last few days happen 
>as it was part and parcel of the wet season.
>A confusing thing for some of the older farmers and people of the 
>community could have been the new river height predictions, where say 
>the height was for 10m it was actually 10.8m the old way. So that the 
>farmer with his livestock out of town from experience has to move his 
>cows when the river reaches say 7.8m now has to move them at 7m. How 
>many of these people town or country knew about these new changes to 
>the river height preditions? Can be confusing and makes the people 
>think that they have more time than they really have.
>I think that there should be some sort of education and advices 
>during the wet season that this sort of flooding is a normal thing in 
>the area of Lismore. They must know to put up furniture and get 
>things to higher ground to expect the unexpected. It is easier the 
>further down river you are because you have more time. I found this 
>time around that the height of the Wilsons River was not given as 
>much on the radio just the peak predictions. Some of these new people 
>to the area may think it was a big flood but they must be told that 
>this was only small compared to others and compared to what we will 
>get in the future.
>Before the lack of rain and floods to Lismore the houses in North and 
>South Lismore were sold at give away prices because of being in a 
>flood prone area but now they are being sold for prices that I think 
>are over priced. Just my thought anyway.
>Would like to know other people veiws on this.
>Regards Linda
>
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:16:19 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: RE: [aussie-weather] Grafton event- tornadic??

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>Date: Sat, 3 Feb 2001 14:02:36 +1000
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: RE: [aussie-weather] Grafton event- tornadic??
>
>I saw damage consistent with tornadoes at several locations on the pacific
>highway.
>
>David
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Jimmy Deguara [mailto:jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
>Sent: Friday, 26 January 2001 2:46 PM
>To: aussie-weather at egroups.com
>Subject: [aussie-weather] Grafton event- tornadic??
>
>
>Hi all,
>
>I was suspecting that when I went to Casino that it looked that the damage
>that was severe was very localised and along a path. I told Michael that I
>had no time to look but it would be worth looking more into. It seems word
>through a reporter who interviewed me on the day for the Good Weekend
>article has told me he was told from Rob Webb that there was a tornado at
>Casino.
>
>Now I wouldn't be surprised. Would have been great if the BoM had told us
>directly....another way of sharing information. That is if it is true....
>
>
>-----------------------------------------
>Jimmy Deguara
>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
>from
>Schofields, Sydney
>NSW Australia
>
>e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
>Web Page with Michael Bath
>
>Australian Severe Weather Home Page
>http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
>President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:16:38 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: [aussie-weather] Floods in NE NSW

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>Date: Sat, 3 Feb 2001 14:22:23 +1000
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [aussie-weather] Floods in NE NSW
>
>Hi
>
>What is happening with this list, will there be a new single server soon?
>
>Anyway, I have just got home from being stuck for two nights just south of
>Tweed Heads. We were comming home from Sydney on Thursday, and decided to go
>all the way that day to avoid being stuck behind dozens of floods. We
>reached Muwillumbah around 7.30 pm and had had to go around and through
>water at various places. We were following a group of semi's and some cars
>along the pacific highway. We reached the bridge to Terranora over the tweed
>river, but once we were over we saw more deep water and decided to go back.
>We returned to a small town called Tumbulgum and stopped at the tavern
>there, where we could get the car up a little bit higher. We were then stuck
>there for two nights watching the waters go up and down, almost reaching the
>car. We finally heard thismorning that a road from Mooball, through to
>Chinderah and Tweed heads. We were also told that the road back to
>Murwillumbah, one of the lowest points on the road was clear of water. We
>drove to the SES road block at Condong and were told we could get back, and
>around though the Mooball detour. So we rushed back loaded out stuff in the
>car and drove back. We made it easily once we got out.
>
>It was quite a relief to get back home after being stuck in the back of a
>pub for three days. I also saw some areas with damage consistant with
>tornado damage. Several large trees were broken in different directions,
>while trees just metres away were undamaged.
>
>David
>
>
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To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: [aussie-weather] "Gipsy" low from QLD.

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>From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
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>Subject: [aussie-weather] "Gipsy" low from QLD.
>
>Hi all night owls.
>I am absolutely fascinated by this upper low almost covering all of QLD at
>the moment,this low can be traced from just west of Sydney almost  a week
>ago, since then it has moved northward bring remarkable rainfall along the
>east coast, and then moving into the tropics two days ago and still
>maintaining its mid latitude circulation signature. However over the last 12
>hours this "Gipsy" low has moved south-southwest with outer cloud bands
>extending from Alice Springs to Melbourne! looks like the system may
>continue its southward movement and may affect NSW and Victoria over the
>next 24 -36 hours,I must say I have never seen such  system do this before,
>keep spinning baby and come my way!!!.regards Clyve Herbert.
>
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 07:17:53 +0800
To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Fwd: Re: [aussie-weather] "Gipsy" low from QLD.

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>Date: Sun, 04 Feb 2001 07:04:16 +1030
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>Subject: Re: [aussie-weather] "Gipsy" low from QLD.
>
>Calling this low a gipsy low sums it up really well Clive.  This low coupled 
>with very high surface moisture levels is expected to cause havoc even in SA 
>today with most of the activity in the northeast, even mention of a possible 
>rain band developing and lasting for a couple of days.  At the moment here 
>in Adelaide we have only had a few drops of rain, there is a lot of cloud 
>about especially to the west where fog cloud seems to be being drawn into 
>some showers there, fog also seems evident over Mt Lofty and has been there 
>since yesterday evening I think.  Anyway looks like a few interesting days 
>coming up.
>
>
>
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 09:32:33 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe storm NE Victoria
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Jane,

WOW  at  these photos, that guster is certainly spectacular!!!

This storm was moving south while everything else was moving SE, and the
guster was moving SW - does this make it a right mover???

Another interesting storm was a storm near Benella that Andrew McDonald
pointed out to me - it was moving NE'ish while everything was moving SE!

AC

Jane ONeill wrote:
> 
> Morning all,
> 
> Images (thumbnails only atm - I'll link the images tonight) of yesterday's
> severe storm in the NE of the state are at
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_02_01.htm
> 
> I got from the south side to the NW side of this severe multicell (the gust
> front looked to extend from Mulwala to Albury which is ~80kms) through about
> 17kms of torrentially heavy (>100mm/hr "can't see the end of your bonnet")
> rain and watched curved inflow bands, but did not observe anything else.
> Visually, the structure was just amazing!!!!  and although the closest thing
> to hail I got was a dozen or so drops on the NW side almost the size of the
> palm of my hand, there was that 'green tinge'.
> 
> The ABC reported that 'm' word again this morning with 'm tornadoes' being
> sighted by residents.
> 
> ...and a report from Ross Buscall from Rutherglen:-
> Just a little report on the storm late yesterday. It was one of the most
> violent storms I've seen for many years lasting well over an hour with cg's
> striking the ground extremely close by. Went for a bit of a drive afterwards
> but couldn't see any damage. There was a fire started approximately 2km's
> south of town by a lightning strike which burnt an area about the size of a
> basketball court before the CFA and rain got to it. After hitting 35.4
> yesterday and a dew point of 22.9 before the storm came you could feel that
> something was going to happen. I received several calls from locals saying,
> "Hey Bussy have a look...". But it was too late I was already out there.
> It rolled in from the N/NE and was very slow moving and very low and the
> darkest storm I'd seen for a long time. Just as the leading edge crept over
> town the lights etc all came on and it was only just after 6pm when there's
> normally plenty of light. The show began just before 6.30pm when a gust of
> wind clocked at 67.6kmh from the north hit then closely followed by very
> heavy rain. At 6.33pm the Davis was recording 2.4mm per minute with
> extremely close cg's as mentioned with at least one per second. Power was
> lost not long after and was never restored until 11.45pm (approx 5 hours).
> Areas affected by severe weather according to TXU (power company) - Wodonga,
> Barnawartha, Barnawartha North, Indigo, Indigo Valley, Chiltern, Chiltern
> Valley, Rutherglen and Wahgunyah.
> 31.2 millimetres was recorded in approx 30 minutes.
> Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
> 
> Jane
> ---------------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> 
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> 
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> ---------------------------------------
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 09:38:12 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD Floods Last Week
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

We ended up getting 214mm of rain in the 72hrs at my place...my parents'
farm got 190mm but they had 78mm several days before that from a severe
t'storm.  It was mud city (as I found nearly getting my car bogged in
the driveway!)  And the general smell of most of the area to the west of
Brisbane is soggy and decomposing!

One of my bosses phoned me last night to let me know he has had 26
inches (625mm!!!) of rain over the 72hrs!  He lives near Canungra
(towards Lamington National Park).

While drive around yesterday there was damage to bridges (part of them
being washed away), and some roads were scoured from the water.  Most
areas were still flodded yesterday, however only in the fields and
paddocks, most roads were clear.  Grandchester (town close to the farm)
was half under water judging by the debris marks over the crossing at
the railway!  

Certainly quite an impressive little flood event, and great that the
Lockyer Valley/Downs got a good lot of rain as they really needed it!
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe storm NE Victoria
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 11:46:49 +1100
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Hi Jane.
Fantastic Photos!!!!!!! not bad for day with a forcast of isolated storms
possible!?.(issued on sat by BOM),this gust front photo ranks with anything
I have seen.regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>; <R.Kollmorgen at bom.gov.au>
Sent: Monday, February 05, 2001 7:43 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Severe storm NE Victoria


> Morning all,
>
> Images (thumbnails only atm - I'll link the images tonight) of yesterday's
> severe storm in the NE of the state are at
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_02_01.htm
>
> I got from the south side to the NW side of this severe multicell (the
gust
> front looked to extend from Mulwala to Albury which is ~80kms) through
about
> 17kms of torrentially heavy (>100mm/hr "can't see the end of your bonnet")
> rain and watched curved inflow bands, but did not observe anything else.
> Visually, the structure was just amazing!!!!  and although the closest
thing
> to hail I got was a dozen or so drops on the NW side almost the size of
the
> palm of my hand, there was that 'green tinge'.
>
> The ABC reported that 'm' word again this morning with 'm tornadoes' being
> sighted by residents.
>
> ...and a report from Ross Buscall from Rutherglen:-
> Just a little report on the storm late yesterday. It was one of the most
> violent storms I've seen for many years lasting well over an hour with
cg's
> striking the ground extremely close by. Went for a bit of a drive
afterwards
> but couldn't see any damage. There was a fire started approximately 2km's
> south of town by a lightning strike which burnt an area about the size of
a
> basketball court before the CFA and rain got to it. After hitting 35.4
> yesterday and a dew point of 22.9 before the storm came you could feel
that
> something was going to happen. I received several calls from locals
saying,
> "Hey Bussy have a look...". But it was too late I was already out there.
> It rolled in from the N/NE and was very slow moving and very low and the
> darkest storm I'd seen for a long time. Just as the leading edge crept
over
> town the lights etc all came on and it was only just after 6pm when
there's
> normally plenty of light. The show began just before 6.30pm when a gust of
> wind clocked at 67.6kmh from the north hit then closely followed by very
> heavy rain. At 6.33pm the Davis was recording 2.4mm per minute with
> extremely close cg's as mentioned with at least one per second. Power was
> lost not long after and was never restored until 11.45pm (approx 5 hours).
> Areas affected by severe weather according to TXU (power company) -
Wodonga,
> Barnawartha, Barnawartha North, Indigo, Indigo Valley, Chiltern, Chiltern
> Valley, Rutherglen and Wahgunyah.
> 31.2 millimetres was recorded in approx 30 minutes.
> Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
>
> Jane
> ---------------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> ---------------------------------------
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: System nears Sydney
Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 12:11:39 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Very nice forecast for Sydney 1130,
Rain and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and continuing
tonight, moderate to heavy at times. Chance of squally winds with the
thunderstorms. Showers persisting tomorrow. Humid days.

Patches of pink on the radar, dense haze and large cumulus features on the 
approach. Also my trusty thermometre reads 35.0C at 1215pm,  forecast was 
for 30.  Feeling quite excited,
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 12:42:12 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on Domino/Advance(Release 5.0.5 |September 22, 2000) at
 05/02/2001 12:42:09
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TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1143 on Monday the 5th of February 2001

This advice affects people in the following weather districts:

Upper Western west of a line Goodooga to Brewarrina to Nyngan
Lower Western northeast of a line Broken Hill to Hay
Riverina north of a line Hay to Narrandera to Junee
Central West Slopes and Plains southwest of a line Nyngan to
Narromine to Wellington
Central Tablelands south of a line Wellington to Kandos
South West Slopes north of a line Junee to Yass
Southern Tablelands north of a line Yass to Goulburn
Illawarra northwest of a line Marulan to Robertson to Stanwell Park
Sydney Metropolitan
Hunter south of a line Kandos to Muswellbrook to Nelson Bay

Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon.
Some of these are expected to be severe bringing damaging winds and
very heavy rainfall.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Heavy rain in last 24 hours
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 11:42:38 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Not surprisingly, given the extremely humid air, some very
heavy 24-hour rainfall totals have been recorded in 
Victoria and southern NSW (and the ACT), with the magic
100 being broken at Nimmitabel and Nerriga (NSW) and Mallacoota
and Murchison (Vic).

Canberra got 60.0. Somewhat to my surprise, this is the second-
highest 24-hour total on record for February there, and the 
highest in any month since 21 January 1995. 

There have been dewpoints of 24 at some southern NSW and northern
Victorian stations in the last 24 hours, so it's not surprising
that there has been heavy rain somewhere!

Also unsurprising is the fact that most of the action missed
Melbourne (in keeping with the tradition of the last five years). 
Only 1.4mm in the city, although the eastern suburbs did better.

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA 
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 13:15:44 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Hi all.
The situation for Sydney and surrounds looks very interesting some very
large storms are generating north of Canberra at 1300 hrs, and are aligned
west east the area just north and northeast of these storms looks primed for
big developments this afternoon,look out for very big and organised activity
over the next 3 to 10 hours.regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: <davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 05, 2001 12:42 PM
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA


> TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
>
> SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
> BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
> Issued at 1143 on Monday the 5th of February 2001
>
> This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
>
> Upper Western west of a line Goodooga to Brewarrina to Nyngan
> Lower Western northeast of a line Broken Hill to Hay
> Riverina north of a line Hay to Narrandera to Junee
> Central West Slopes and Plains southwest of a line Nyngan to
> Narromine to Wellington
> Central Tablelands south of a line Wellington to Kandos
> South West Slopes north of a line Junee to Yass
> Southern Tablelands north of a line Yass to Goulburn
> Illawarra northwest of a line Marulan to Robertson to Stanwell Park
> Sydney Metropolitan
> Hunter south of a line Kandos to Muswellbrook to Nelson Bay
>
> Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon.
> Some of these are expected to be severe bringing damaging winds and
> very heavy rainfall.
>
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X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58 
Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 12:53:49 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ruth Rosenhek <ruthr at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE QLD Floods Last Week
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<html>
I'm wondering if anybody can help us to find answers to the following?
Thanks.&nbsp; <br>
<br>
Ruth Rosenhek, Rainforest Information Centre in Lismore<br>
<br>
<font size=2>QUESTIONS:<br>
<br>
1) What are the rainfall figures for the current storm event in
Drake/Tenterfield region?<br>
<br>
2) What is the frequency of this kind of event, ie. is it a 1 in 100
event or 1 in 30 etc?<br>
<br>
3) What are the rainfall figures over the last couple of decades for
Drake and Tenterfield?&nbsp; or where can we get these
figures?</font></html>

</x-html>
From: "Bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Severe storms NE Victoria
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 13:34:40 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Just a little report on the storm late yesterday. It was one of the most
violent storms I've seen for many years lasting well over an hour with cg's
striking the ground extremely close by. Went for a bit of a drive afterwards
but couldn't see any damage. There was a fire started approximately 2km's
south of town by a lightning strike which burnt an area about the size of a
basketball court before the CFA and rain got to it. After hitting 35.4
yesterday and a dew point of 22.9 before the storm came you could feel that
something was going to happen. I received several calls from locals saying,
"Hey Bussy have a look...". But it was too late I was already out there.
It rolled in from the N/NE and was very slow moving and very low and the
darkest storm I'd seen for a long time. Just as the leading edge crept over
town the lights etc all came on and it was only just after 6pm when there's
normally plenty of light. The show began just before 6.30pm when a gust of
wind clocked at 67.6kmh from the north hit then closely followed by very
heavy rain. At 6.33pm the Davis was recording 2.4mm per minute with
extremely close cg's as mentioned with at least one per second. Power was
lost not long after and was never restored until 11.45pm (approx 5 hours).
Areas affected by severe weather according to TXU (power company) - Wodonga,
Barnawartha, Barnawartha North, Indigo, Indigo Valley, Chiltern, Chiltern
Valley, Rutherglen and Wahgunyah.
31.2 millimetres was recorded in approx 30 minutes here. Lots of large
branches and small trees down in the Springhurst (15k south) area this
morning.

Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)

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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe storms NE Victoria
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 14:02:29 +1100
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Hi Bussie
good to see you after so long nice report,I presume the frogs were
running/jumping for cover.regards Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussie <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: weather list <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 05, 2001 1:34 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Severe storms NE Victoria


> Just a little report on the storm late yesterday. It was one of the most
> violent storms I've seen for many years lasting well over an hour with
cg's
> striking the ground extremely close by. Went for a bit of a drive
afterwards
> but couldn't see any damage. There was a fire started approximately 2km's
> south of town by a lightning strike which burnt an area about the size of
a
> basketball court before the CFA and rain got to it. After hitting 35.4
> yesterday and a dew point of 22.9 before the storm came you could feel
that
> something was going to happen. I received several calls from locals
saying,
> "Hey Bussy have a look...". But it was too late I was already out there.
> It rolled in from the N/NE and was very slow moving and very low and the
> darkest storm I'd seen for a long time. Just as the leading edge crept
over
> town the lights etc all came on and it was only just after 6pm when
there's
> normally plenty of light. The show began just before 6.30pm when a gust of
> wind clocked at 67.6kmh from the north hit then closely followed by very
> heavy rain. At 6.33pm the Davis was recording 2.4mm per minute with
> extremely close cg's as mentioned with at least one per second. Power was
> lost not long after and was never restored until 11.45pm (approx 5 hours).
> Areas affected by severe weather according to TXU (power company) -
Wodonga,
> Barnawartha, Barnawartha North, Indigo, Indigo Valley, Chiltern, Chiltern
> Valley, Rutherglen and Wahgunyah.
> 31.2 millimetres was recorded in approx 30 minutes here. Lots of large
> branches and small trees down in the Springhurst (15k south) area this
> morning.
>
> Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
>
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X-Originating-IP: [203.134.81.222]
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Dramatic storms
Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 15:24:36 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Feb 2001 04:24:37.0048 (UTC) FILETIME=[8C884380:01C08F2B]
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<x-flowed>
      Some big storms just swept over here at Glenorie, was at the spot, at 
first visibility was excellent like last night, crispy outlines, distant 
anvils closer towerings. It was very humid, at 34.5C it was 52% which seemed 
very high.  Then the cloud just increased within 5 minutes all over the 
place, thunder became audible to the west and southwest, 10 minutes later, 
very dark all areas west and south, cgs became visible and encroaching, time 
to head home, the wind picked up dramatically, then bang the lightning was 
on our doorstep, ive never seen visually lightning actually hitting a tree 
till today, when i saw it twice, the second time was the most spectacular 
when i was lucky enough to be looking in the right spot as it was all 
around, the bolt just hung in mid air seemingly for 1-2 seconds and sparks 
were sent shooting from the gum, followed by an ear splitting craaack, it 
was a thing of beauty, the moment seemed to last for ages, then the heavy 
rain rolled in, 21mm in 15 minutes, checking the loop an area of red passed 
over here which for me is also a first, it was certainly very dramatic and 
enjoyable too!.. whats to come today?!.. so far 32mm all up... Rune

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SE QLD Floods Last Week
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 14:05:11 +1000
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Hi Anthony,

278mm at Mt. Crosby for the 4 days starting Jan 31.  This was really
excellent rain for soaking the ground, as much of it was a continual
drizzle, rather than heavy downpours (although there were a few of those
too), thus limiting runoff.

Colledges crossing on the Brisbane river at Mt. Crosby was closed yesterday
with 1m of fast running water over the road (would you believe some DH
actually had his young children playing in it!).  Checked out Wivenhoe, but
no gates open yet.  Looks like the DNR has chosen the wise precaution of
allowing dam levels to fall prior to the wet season.  But it will take at
least another week for the Dam level to max out from this event.  10..12
inches over much of the catchment, plus more in the mountains, must make for
a substantial increase in Dam level.  Watch for gates open in around a
week's time, particularly if more rainfall occurs.

Regards,
John.
>snip

Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD Floods Last Week

Hi all,

We ended up getting 214mm of rain in the 72hrs at my place...my parents'
farm got 190mm but they had 78mm several days before that from a severe
t'storm.  It was mud city (as I found nearly getting my car bogged in
the driveway!)  And the general smell of most of the area to the west of
Brisbane is soggy and decomposing!

One of my bosses phoned me last night to let me know he has had 26
inches (625mm!!!) of rain over the 72hrs!  He lives near Canungra
(towards Lamington National Park).

While drive around yesterday there was damage to bridges (part of them
being washed away), and some roads were scoured from the water.  Most
areas were still flodded yesterday, however only in the fields and
paddocks, most roads were clear.  Grandchester (town close to the farm)
was half under water judging by the debris marks over the crossing at
the railway!

Certainly quite an impressive little flood event, and great that the
Lockyer Valley/Downs got a good lot of rain as they really needed it!
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Outages - Storms. 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5  September 22, 2000
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 16:05:17 +1100
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 05/02/2001 04:05:13
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4pm 05/02

Current problems in Lake Cargelligo, Condobolin, Cowra, Wyangla Dam,
Grenfell, Orange, Lidster,  from storms.  Several major strikes causing
drop out fuses to blow.

Dave
Bathurst

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 16:10:15 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dramatic storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Wow Rune !

Sounds great !!! keep an eye on the tree the next few weeks and see if it
dies...and inspect it to see if you can see where the lightning channeled
through it !
Myself and Matt Pearce headed out and got some heavyish rain on Mamre Road, then
came home, no thunder or lightning
cloud and rain... urg  oh well maybe next time :)

Matt Smith

Rune Peitersen wrote:

>       Some big storms just swept over here at Glenorie, was at the spot, at
> first visibility was excellent like last night, crispy outlines, distant
> anvils closer towerings. It was very humid, at 34.5C it was 52% which seemed
> very high.  Then the cloud just increased within 5 minutes all over the
> place, thunder became audible to the west and southwest, 10 minutes later,
> very dark all areas west and south, cgs became visible and encroaching, time
> to head home, the wind picked up dramatically, then bang the lightning was
> on our doorstep, ive never seen visually lightning actually hitting a tree
> till today, when i saw it twice, the second time was the most spectacular
> when i was lucky enough to be looking in the right spot as it was all
> around, the bolt just hung in mid air seemingly for 1-2 seconds and sparks
> were sent shooting from the gum, followed by an ear splitting craaack, it
> was a thing of beauty, the moment seemed to last for ages, then the heavy
> rain rolled in, 21mm in 15 minutes, checking the loop an area of red passed
> over here which for me is also a first, it was certainly very dramatic and
> enjoyable too!.. whats to come today?!.. so far 32mm all up... Rune
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at AdvanceEnergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Central West Storms 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5  September 22, 2000
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 16:36:38 +1100
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 05/02/2001 04:36:38
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4.30pm 05/02

Major problems around Lake Carg 66Kv, Condobolin, 3 poles on fire at Forbes
power lines down.  Dubbo rural areas also off.

Dave
Bathurst

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Frogs!!
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 18:42:40 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Clyve wrote:good to see you after so long nice report,I presume the frogs
were
running/jumping for cover.regards Clyve H.

All I can say is that the frogs never had a chance and drowned. Have had a
look at a little footage I took of this "thing" rolling in from the north.
Although only a few minutes worth it will be something I'll always look at
with mouth open. Should of stayed out longer but thought I better get back
to the young ones (and mum). Got some more footage of a very close CG where
I got sprung swearing :-) Jane's Pics are from the "west end" as it
approached and my video is from basically head on. The funny part was that
it had the definite green tinge to it and no hail was reported that I know
of. Another reason I headed home as I had the "boss's" car and not the old
ute. Even when the rain stopped you could see over Albury/Wodonga area that
it was still raining very heavily with flooding reported in Dean Street
(Main st) of Albury and many places in Wodonga.
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 19:51:57 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        Ray Kollmorgen <R.Kollmorgen at bom.gov.au>
Subject: aus-wx: More Victorian images with big pictures
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Evening all,

I've finally linked the full size images to the thumbnails for the 4th
Feb & added pics of the stunning sunset & war of the air masses from
Saturday night 3rd at
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_02_01.htm

I've also put up images of a cirrus band which ran from NW to SE across
southern Victoria today - images from the ground as well as an infrared
image from above at
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/05_02_01.htm

Enjoy!

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Rodney Aikman" <raikman at austar.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Yesterday's storms
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 20:13:30 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content=text/html;charset=iso-8859-1 http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content='"MSHTML 5.00.0910.1309"' name=GENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2> Hi everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2>I observed here yesterday about 14:30 a 
lot of low scud forming rapidly under the updraft of a recently developed 
multicell system to the south-east of here, but unfortunately, no rotation. Just 
16mm to 09:00 this morning.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2>Rod Aikman<BR>42 Panton St,<BR>Golden 
Square,<BR>Bendigo, Vic.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 22:16:21 +1000
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Hi All,

Just caught a note on the Ch 9 weather as I came in from work tonight, to
the effect that this is the first time in 54 years that there have been no
Pacific basin TC's by this late in the season.

If this is correct, then this is quite a remarkable fact, and all the more
so given that all the 'experts' were predicting an above average season just
a few months back.  What does it all mean I wonder...

John.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0
Date: Tue, 06 Feb 2001 08:50:31 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: Lismore Floods and Education
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
The Wilsons River in Lismore and every other stream in NSW/Australia I 
assume switched to measuring river and flood heights by the Australian 
Height Datum method about 2 years ago.

I've studied all floods in the Lismore area from archived Northern Star 
newspapers, and have experienced the floods in 1987, 1988 and 1989.

Two things I noticed for the 2/2/01 flood:

- the media did not explain the difference between the old and new [AHD] 
methods of measuring the flood height, or why it was implemented. There was 
some vague reference to the old heights being about 80cm higher than the 
new, but this was only heard once by me (and my job is to listen to the 
radio as a media monitor!) after the floodwaters were already spilling into 
the Lismore CBD.

- the flood warnings did not include whether the river was rising or 
falling, just the current level. This is in contrast to previous floods 
where it was always given.

Does anyone have more information on this Australian Height Datum ?
Why do BoM warnings no include rising or falling indicators anymore?

The reason the flood in Lismore turned out to be a big problem for those 
directly affected was that the river was only expected to peak at 9.7m 
which does spill over the banks into the Lismore basin, but can be kept out 
of the CBD by pumps.
It ended up peaking at 10.41m (old scale about 11.2m) and very similar in 
size to the 6/3/87 flood peak.

It's easy to say this now as I'm not a flood forecaster, but when I see 
400mm in 24 hours in the catchment, it always means major flood in Lismore, 
yet the flood warnings  were for some reason scaling it back to a moderate 
flood. Maybe some confusion by forecasters and SES people to the new flood 
scale as well ? Unfortunately this confused business owners who had to get 
their stock out of harm's way too.
Education to the new flood heights is essential. I guess Lismore City 
Council will be following this up.

Michael



> >From: linda at sfdt.com
> >Mailing-List: list aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com; contact
> >aussie-weather-owner at yahoogroups.com
> >Delivered-To: mailing list aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
> >List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:aussie-weather-unsubscribe at yahoogroups.com>
> >Date: Sat, 03 Feb 2001 01:11:16 -0000
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at yahoogroups.com
> >Subject: [aussie-weather] Lismore Floods and Education
> >
> >From all of the reports in the papers and on the radio it sounds like
> >there may have been a few people unprepared for this flooding as they
> >have not experienced this situation in this area before due to the
> >lack of floods here over the past few years. My family have lived in
> >the area for the last 26 years. We just missed the '74 flood but I
> >was living at Green Pigeon at the foot of the Border Ranges about
> >15km outside of Kyogle with the creek right at my doorstep during the
> >two floods that happened in April '89. Years ago it was a normal
> >occurance to have the sort of floods of the the last few days happen
> >as it was part and parcel of the wet season.
> >A confusing thing for some of the older farmers and people of the
> >community could have been the new river height predictions, where say
> >the height was for 10m it was actually 10.8m the old way. So that the
> >farmer with his livestock out of town from experience has to move his
> >cows when the river reaches say 7.8m now has to move them at 7m. How
> >many of these people town or country knew about these new changes to
> >the river height preditions? Can be confusing and makes the people
> >think that they have more time than they really have.
> >I think that there should be some sort of education and advices
> >during the wet season that this sort of flooding is a normal thing in
> >the area of Lismore. They must know to put up furniture and get
> >things to higher ground to expect the unexpected. It is easier the
> >further down river you are because you have more time. I found this
> >time around that the height of the Wilsons River was not given as
> >much on the radio just the peak predictions. Some of these new people
> >to the area may think it was a big flood but they must be told that
> >this was only small compared to others and compared to what we will
> >get in the future.
> >Before the lack of rain and floods to Lismore the houses in North and
> >South Lismore were sold at give away prices because of being in a
> >flood prone area but now they are being sold for prices that I think
> >are over priced. Just my thought anyway.
> >Would like to know other people veiws on this.
> >Regards Linda
> >
> >



  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: S.A Hotspots.
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 09:19:14 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Hi all.
Looks like the northeast and east central area of SA could fire up some big
storms today all in the vicinity of the Gipsy low,could be some big B# at *ers
in that area after 1200hrs and then possibly moving southward and eastward
into western NSW. regards Clyve H.

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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Trough!
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 09:12:39 +1100
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Hi all trough watchers
Evidence of a weak trough over central Victoria this morning which has
manifested itself into a wonderfull display of alto castallatus and heaps of
it,although probably formed as a result of radiational cooling overnight it
shows a moist layer between 8000ft and 12000ft, its a little dry and warm
above that level, all moving from about 330degrees.It will be interesting to
see how some good surface convection  will be able to overcome the cap and
drive some unexpected storms across Victoria today. regards Clyve Herbert.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Adam Mayo" <oyam at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning strike sign?
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 09:49:43 +1100
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Hi Rune, Matt,

A few years ago a large tree was struck about 10 metres from Frank's
mother's house at Katoomba.  It had a burnt smell about it and after a few
days a definite spiral mark around the trunk all the way down the trunk to
the ground.  From memory the tree had leaves on it for about 6 months and
then started very quickly to look sickly.  It was removed because it was
threatening to collapse onto the house.  When we saw it a few days after the
storm we could see where the earth at the bottom of the tree had been
disturbed we assumed by the lightning strike.

Judy Mayo.


----- Original Message -----
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 05, 2001 6:05 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning strike sign?


> Not too sure rune, I know some tree's explode when hit.. others die a slow
> death,  others have a visual channel running down then where the strike
> travelled. Whichever tree die's in the near future will be the one that
got hit.
> Assuming all tree's die once hit... anyone else know anything more ?
>
> Matt Smith
>
> Rune Peitersen wrote:
>
> > Hey Matt,
> >    Today was good in that the visibility from here was great till the
storms
> > neared, then it was just grey/black with no features, but the lightning
was
> > frequent and all around, ive always wanted to experience 'red' on radar
and
> > it was quite wild and electrical!.. Once the lightning had passed we had
a
> > blackout for 2 hours, i went down the bush and tried to find the tree in
the
> > pouring rain, i think i got it, because around it had a fireplace kind
of
> > smell and it was debarked from about 2/3rds down where the other trees
> > werent, otherwise i couldnt see any real features, what do i look
for?...
> >
> >
_________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
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>
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Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 10:13:59 +1100 (AEDT)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi John...

You are certainly right about the slow start, but I wouldn't be writing
off the season just yet. A burst of activity is looking likely to
commence later this week. Even global model runs are all suggesting
activity, in both Coral and Timor Seas (ie, globals *other than* the
AVN/MRF which ALWAYS indicates tropical activity). 

Tropical cyclone activity is inherently "clustered". Long periods of
inactivity can be followed by a week or so of active cyclogenesis. An
above average season is still well and truly on the cards. A bit early for
details at the moment, but certainly the TC drought appears likely to end
towards the end of this week.

Cheers,

Jonty.
____________________________________________________________________


Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au

Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane Regional Office
295 Ann Street
Brisbane  Qld   4000
Australia

Ph +61 7 3239 8700

____________________________________________________________________

On Mon, 5 Feb 2001, John Woodbridge wrote:

> Hi All,
> 
> Just caught a note on the Ch 9 weather as I came in from work tonight, to
> the effect that this is the first time in 54 years that there have been no
> Pacific basin TC's by this late in the season.
> 
> If this is correct, then this is quite a remarkable fact, and all the more
> so given that all the 'experts' were predicting an above average season just
> a few months back.  What does it all mean I wonder...
> 
> John.
> 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: lightning strike sign?
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 09:15:51 +1000
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Hi Rune, Matt & Judy,

Whether a tree will die after being struck by lightning is determined by the
damage caused to the tree.  This varies widely depending upon the size and
type of the tree, how damp the surface of the bark is, etc.  In rainstorm
conditions, the strike is likely to conduct on the outside of the bark and
cause very little damage, other times it will travel down the moist layer
between the wood and the bark, typically exploding a track in the bark.
When conditions are dry, strikes may travel through the core, which usually
results in the tree shattering.

There is a magnificent large old hoop pine in Hornsby NSW (2 streets behind
the RSL), which has a spiral track down the trunk from a strike many years
ago.  Such a strike which exposes the timber allows disease, rot and
termites to enter, which of course may eventually lead to the demise of the
tree.  In this case, the pine is still sound.

Regards,
John.
>snip

Hi Rune, Matt,

A few years ago a large tree was struck about 10 metres from Frank's
mother's house at Katoomba.  It had a burnt smell about it and after a few
days a definite spiral mark around the trunk all the way down the trunk to
the ground.  From memory the tree had leaves on it for about 6 months and
then started very quickly to look sickly.  It was removed because it was
threatening to collapse onto the house.  When we saw it a few days after the
storm we could see where the earth at the bottom of the tree had been
disturbed we assumed by the lightning strike.

Judy Mayo.


----- Original Message -----
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 05, 2001 6:05 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning strike sign?


> Not too sure rune, I know some tree's explode when hit.. others die a slow
> death,  others have a visual channel running down then where the strike
> travelled. Whichever tree die's in the near future will be the one that
got hit.
> Assuming all tree's die once hit... anyone else know anything more ?
>
> Matt Smith
>
> Rune Peitersen wrote:
>
> > Hey Matt,
> >    Today was good in that the visibility from here was great till the
storms
> > neared, then it was just grey/black with no features, but the lightning
was
> > frequent and all around, ive always wanted to experience 'red' on radar
and
> > it was quite wild and electrical!.. Once the lightning had passed we had
a
> > blackout for 2 hours, i went down the bush and tried to find the tree in
the
> > pouring rain, i think i got it, because around it had a fireplace kind
of
> > smell and it was debarked from about 2/3rds down where the other trees
> > werent, otherwise i couldnt see any real features, what do i look
for?...
> >
> >
_________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
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>
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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 10:57:32 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Hi Jonty and all
Yes a look at the sat pic this morning has at last showed some interesting
larger scale activity north of Willis island that is showing signs of
persistence, the sea surface temps are ok as I was up on the northern
Barrier reef  two weeks ago and the water temp was 28+c and 30c inshore, did
you see the curious small area of vorticity west of New Caledonia,which
seems to have a mid lat type of circulation. regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 10:13 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's


> Hi John...
>
> You are certainly right about the slow start, but I wouldn't be writing
> off the season just yet. A burst of activity is looking likely to
> commence later this week. Even global model runs are all suggesting
> activity, in both Coral and Timor Seas (ie, globals *other than* the
> AVN/MRF which ALWAYS indicates tropical activity).
>
> Tropical cyclone activity is inherently "clustered". Long periods of
> inactivity can be followed by a week or so of active cyclogenesis. An
> above average season is still well and truly on the cards. A bit early for
> details at the moment, but certainly the TC drought appears likely to end
> towards the end of this week.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Jonty.
> ____________________________________________________________________
>
>
> Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
>
> Bureau of Meteorology
> Brisbane Regional Office
> 295 Ann Street
> Brisbane  Qld   4000
> Australia
>
> Ph +61 7 3239 8700
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
>
> On Mon, 5 Feb 2001, John Woodbridge wrote:
>
> > Hi All,
> >
> > Just caught a note on the Ch 9 weather as I came in from work tonight,
to
> > the effect that this is the first time in 54 years that there have been
no
> > Pacific basin TC's by this late in the season.
> >
> > If this is correct, then this is quite a remarkable fact, and all the
more
> > so given that all the 'experts' were predicting an above average season
just
> > a few months back.  What does it all mean I wonder...
> >
> > John.
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 11:18:48 +1100 (AEDT)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

Just reread my previous post, and I realised I made it sound like I was
putting all my faith in a host of globals to pick tropical cyclogenesis at
3-4 days lead time. Well, that's not the case as there is no current
operational model that has any skill at all in this particular area. I
should have added some of the reasons for the indicated increase in
activity.

Firstly, the phase of the MJO. Convection on all scales is increasing over
the area in association with a burst of monsoon activity, which looks like
it is going to be rather vigorous (EC progs 40 knot NW'ly at gradient
level through Torres Strait by Thursday). A SE surge is currently pushing
up the east coast in association with a high jumping into the Tasman, and
strengthening ridging along the Qld coast. This is leading to a general
increase in large scale low-level cyclonic vorticity over the cyclogenesis
regions - probably the best indicator we have of increased TC activity at
present (which is not saying a lot admittedly, but its something). Keep
your eyes on the monsoon shear line. 

Of course, the uppers are important as well, and at the present time the
deep layer vertical shear is quite strong through the region - not
supportive of TC formation/intesification. Don't have access to output at
the moment, but last time I looked, the environment was expected to
improve over the next few days. A weak TUTT was moving west from over the
central Coral Sea - its role, if any, is unclear at this time.

Well, that's it for this early stage. 

Cheers,

Jonty.

____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au

Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane Regional Office
295 Ann Street
Brisbane  Qld   4000
Australia

Ph +61 7 3239 8700

____________________________________________________________________

On Tue, 6 Feb 2001, Jonty Hall wrote:

> Hi John...
> 
> You are certainly right about the slow start, but I wouldn't be writing
> off the season just yet. A burst of activity is looking likely to
> commence later this week. Even global model runs are all suggesting
> activity, in both Coral and Timor Seas (ie, globals *other than* the
> AVN/MRF which ALWAYS indicates tropical activity). 
> 
> Tropical cyclone activity is inherently "clustered". Long periods of
> inactivity can be followed by a week or so of active cyclogenesis. An
> above average season is still well and truly on the cards. A bit early for
> details at the moment, but certainly the TC drought appears likely to end
> towards the end of this week.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Jonty.
> ____________________________________________________________________
> 
> 
> Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
> 
> Bureau of Meteorology
> Brisbane Regional Office
> 295 Ann Street
> Brisbane  Qld   4000
> Australia
> 
> Ph +61 7 3239 8700
> 
> ____________________________________________________________________
> 
> On Mon, 5 Feb 2001, John Woodbridge wrote:
> 
> > Hi All,
> > 
> > Just caught a note on the Ch 9 weather as I came in from work tonight, to
> > the effect that this is the first time in 54 years that there have been no
> > Pacific basin TC's by this late in the season.
> > 
> > If this is correct, then this is quite a remarkable fact, and all the more
> > so given that all the 'experts' were predicting an above average season just
> > a few months back.  What does it all mean I wonder...
> > 
> > John.
> > 
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > 
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.19]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Archive Update...
Date: Tue, 06 Feb 2001 15:15:48 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Feb 2001 04:15:48.0747 (UTC) FILETIME=[7C0DADB0:01C08FF3]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi every1,

My Synoptic Archive for January has been uploaded...

http://www3.50megs.com/wycheproof

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fwd: Lismore Floods and Education
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 15:01:58 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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(snip)

> - the flood warnings did not include whether the river was rising or 
> falling, just the current level. This is in contrast to previous floods 
> where it was always given.
> 
> Does anyone have more information on this Australian Height Datum ?
> Why do BoM warnings no include rising or falling indicators anymore?

No idea. I noticed on a check that the current Queensland warnings
do have this information, but the NSW ones don't.

I don't know if previous NSW warnings did have this information. (I'm
quite surprised they don't now). 

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Carolyn" <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: novice and BoM site
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 16:30:11 +1100
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Hi All,

I am just curious here about the radar images from the BoM.  As a complete
novice here, I find it facinating that when looking at the images there is
absolutely no cloud covering parts of the Hunter Valley, yet in Cessnock and
Maitland there has been steady rain all day.  Can someone please enlighten
me as to why no rain is showing on the radar image?

Carolyn

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Karratha Weather" <karratha at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Possible TC # 3 for WA waters later this week :) 
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 12:19:11 +0800
Organization: Karratha Weather Observations
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hey all

Looks like the WA TC Region is going to see further TC action later this
week with most models going for a Cyclone north of WA in the next 48-72hrs!

Vis image of the Tropical Low SW of Timor:
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc01/SHEM/90S.IN
VEST/ssmi/vis1km/20010206.0231.gms-5.vis.x.INVEST.90S.jpg

AVN:
http://152.80.49.210/products/WXMAP/AVN/2001020512/avn10.prp.036.ausnz.gif

http://152.80.49.210/products/WXMAP/AVN/2001020512/avn10.prp.072.ausnz.gif

EC: http://www.ecmwf.int/charts/daily/shm_msl_96.gif

NGP showing slower rate of development:
http://152.80.49.210/products/WXMAP/NGP/2001020512/ngp10.prp.132.ausnz.gif

BoM are going for a high development potential in the 48-72hr time frame.


BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 12:00pm WST on Tuesday the 6th of February 2001
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

Tropical Low.
      Location          :near 13.0S 116.0E
      about 900km NNW of Port Hedland, 1200km east of Christmas Island.
      Central Pressure  :1005 hPa
      Recent movement   :near stationary.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
      next 24 hours   :low
      24-48   hours   :moderate
      48-72   hours   :high

REMARKS - There is a possibility of interaction between a persistent area of
convection at the above location, and a slow moving easterly disturbance
just
east of 120E. Model fields suggest further development in this area towards
Thursday/Friday. If development occurs, models suggest the system is likely
to
track west under the influence of a persistent mid-level ridge.


** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of
**
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period.
**
** LOW = 10-20%   MODERATE = 30-40%   HIGH = 50% or more
**

Regards
JJ
Karratha W.A
www.karrathaweather.org
cyclone at karrathaweather.org


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 06 Feb 2001 18:56:47 +1100
From: David Carroll <davidkc at nia.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.75 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1803 on Tuesday the 6th of February 2001

This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
 
Upper Western south of a line Packsaddle Roadhoase [on Silver City
Highway]
to Wilcannia to Cobar
Lower Western
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Karratha Weather" <karratha at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Possible TC # 3 for WA waters later this week :) 
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 16:32:50 +0800
Organization: Karratha Weather Observations
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Hey all,

Looks like the WA TC Region is going to see further TC action later this
week with most models going for a Cyclone north of WA in the next 48-72hrs!
Vis image of the Tropical Low SW of Timor  at  (0424utc):
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc01/SHEM/90S.IN
VEST/ssmi/vis1km/20010206.0424.gms-5.vis.x.INVEST.90S.jpg

AVN:
http://152.80.49.210/products/WXMAP/AVN/2001020512/avn10.prp.036.ausnz.gif

http://152.80.49.210/products/WXMAP/AVN/2001020512/avn10.prp.072.ausnz.gif

EC: http://www.ecmwf.int/charts/daily/shm_msl_96.gif

NGP showing slower rate of development:
http://152.80.49.210/products/WXMAP/NGP/2001020512/ngp10.prp.132.ausnz.gif

BoM are going for a high development potential in the 48-72hr time frame.


BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 12:00pm WST on Tuesday the 6th of February 2001
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

Tropical Low.
Location          :near 13.0S 116.0E
about 900km NNW of Port Hedland, 1200km east of Christmas Island.
Central Pressure  :1005 hPa
Recent movement   :near stationary.
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
next 24 hours   :low
24-48   hours   :moderate
48-72   hours   :high

REMARKS - There is a possibility of interaction between a persistent area of
convection at the above location, and a slow moving easterly disturbance
just east of 120E. Model fields suggest further development in this area
towards
Thursday/Friday. If development occurs, models suggest the system is likely
to
track west under the influence of a persistent mid-level ridge.


** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of
**
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period.
**
** LOW = 10-20%   MODERATE = 30-40%   HIGH = 50% or more
**

Regards
JJ
Karratha W.A
www.karrathaweather.org
cyclone at karrathaweather.org





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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 18:44:38 +1100
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Clyve, Jonty and Others,

I was discussing something with Anthony Cornelius the other day about the
possible disasterous effects of a TC developing in the Pacific in the two
weeks following the BIG rain event which has seemingly just ended in NE NSW
and SE QLD.  (Anthony mentioned that the SST's were slightly above normal (i
think) off Brisbane.) If conditions were to prevail to the extent that a TC
or even a tropical rain depression passes over SE QLD or NE NSW then the
resulting floods could potentially be equally as bad or possibly worse than
the 1974 Brisbane Floods.

Just something to keep in mind (sorry to all those just cleaning up after
the floods but there is a minute possibility of this).

Regards,

Andrew McDonald.

----- Original Message -----
From: clyve herbert <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 10:57 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's


> Hi Jonty and all
> Yes a look at the sat pic this morning has at last showed some interesting
> larger scale activity north of Willis island that is showing signs of
> persistence, the sea surface temps are ok as I was up on the northern
> Barrier reef  two weeks ago and the water temp was 28+c and 30c inshore,
did
> you see the curious small area of vorticity west of New Caledonia,which
> seems to have a mid lat type of circulation. regards Clyve Herbert.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 10:13 AM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's
>
>
> > Hi John...
> >
> > You are certainly right about the slow start, but I wouldn't be writing
> > off the season just yet. A burst of activity is looking likely to
> > commence later this week. Even global model runs are all suggesting
> > activity, in both Coral and Timor Seas (ie, globals *other than* the
> > AVN/MRF which ALWAYS indicates tropical activity).
> >
> > Tropical cyclone activity is inherently "clustered". Long periods of
> > inactivity can be followed by a week or so of active cyclogenesis. An
> > above average season is still well and truly on the cards. A bit early
for
> > details at the moment, but certainly the TC drought appears likely to
end
> > towards the end of this week.
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > Jonty.
> > ____________________________________________________________________
> >
> >
> > Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
> >
> > Bureau of Meteorology
> > Brisbane Regional Office
> > 295 Ann Street
> > Brisbane  Qld   4000
> > Australia
> >
> > Ph +61 7 3239 8700
> >
> > ____________________________________________________________________
> >
> > On Mon, 5 Feb 2001, John Woodbridge wrote:
> >
> > > Hi All,
> > >
> > > Just caught a note on the Ch 9 weather as I came in from work tonight,
> to
> > > the effect that this is the first time in 54 years that there have
been
> no
> > > Pacific basin TC's by this late in the season.
> > >
> > > If this is correct, then this is quite a remarkable fact, and all the
> more
> > > so given that all the 'experts' were predicting an above average
season
> just
> > > a few months back.  What does it all mean I wonder...
> > >
> > > John.
> > >
> > >
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> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Ntaswa at yahoogroups. Com" <ntaswa at egroups.com>,
        "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Heavy Darwin Rain.....
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 18:53:29 +0930
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Note that my email still hasnt arrived..... anyway.

Querying the amount in the gauge, I went on a damage assessment.

What I found was amazing - debris all over roads, major scouring on slopes,
the water gardens fountains were brown!! hehehe with 2 council guys standing
scratching their heads!!

Evidence of a major rain event - and it was a storm as I saw 2 or 3 cgs in
the heavy rain that hit close by.

Not too bad at last!!

Rgds, Paul.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 06 Feb 2001 20:58:07 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Evening all,

There has been a 300hPa low lurking about for almost a week now in the northern
Tasman - Coral Sea area.  Formed NW of NZ and has spent the last few days
drifting steadily NW.  Has maintained its identity in the upper atmosphere and
is now starting to be recognisable on the infrared images (~ 600 - 500hPa level)

Jane

McDonald wrote:

> Clyve, Jonty and Others,
>
> I was discussing something with Anthony Cornelius the other day about the
> possible disasterous effects of a TC developing in the Pacific in the two
> weeks following the BIG rain event which has seemingly just ended in NE NSW
> and SE QLD.  (Anthony mentioned that the SST's were slightly above normal (i
> think) off Brisbane.) If conditions were to prevail to the extent that a TC
> or even a tropical rain depression passes over SE QLD or NE NSW then the
> resulting floods could potentially be equally as bad or possibly worse than
> the 1974 Brisbane Floods.
>
> Just something to keep in mind (sorry to all those just cleaning up after
> the floods but there is a minute possibility of this).
>
> Regards,
>
> Andrew McDonald.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: clyve herbert <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 10:57 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's
>
> > Hi Jonty and all
> > Yes a look at the sat pic this morning has at last showed some interesting
> > larger scale activity north of Willis island that is showing signs of
> > persistence, the sea surface temps are ok as I was up on the northern
> > Barrier reef  two weeks ago and the water temp was 28+c and 30c inshore,
> did
> > you see the curious small area of vorticity west of New Caledonia,which
> > seems to have a mid lat type of circulation. regards Clyve Herbert.
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 10:13 AM
> > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's
> >
> >
> > > Hi John...
> > >
> > > You are certainly right about the slow start, but I wouldn't be writing
> > > off the season just yet. A burst of activity is looking likely to
> > > commence later this week. Even global model runs are all suggesting
> > > activity, in both Coral and Timor Seas (ie, globals *other than* the
> > > AVN/MRF which ALWAYS indicates tropical activity).
> > >
> > > Tropical cyclone activity is inherently "clustered". Long periods of
> > > inactivity can be followed by a week or so of active cyclogenesis. An
> > > above average season is still well and truly on the cards. A bit early
> for
> > > details at the moment, but certainly the TC drought appears likely to
> end
> > > towards the end of this week.
> > >
> > > Cheers,
> > >
> > > Jonty.
> > > ____________________________________________________________________
> > >
> > >
> > > Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
> > >
> > > Bureau of Meteorology
> > > Brisbane Regional Office
> > > 295 Ann Street
> > > Brisbane  Qld   4000
> > > Australia
> > >
> > > Ph +61 7 3239 8700
> > >
> > > ____________________________________________________________________
> > >
> > > On Mon, 5 Feb 2001, John Woodbridge wrote:
> > >
> > > > Hi All,
> > > >
> > > > Just caught a note on the Ch 9 weather as I came in from work tonight,
> > to
> > > > the effect that this is the first time in 54 years that there have
> been
> > no
> > > > Pacific basin TC's by this late in the season.
> > > >
> > > > If this is correct, then this is quite a remarkable fact, and all the
> > more
> > > > so given that all the 'experts' were predicting an above average
> season
> > just
> > > > a few months back.  What does it all mean I wonder...
> > > >
> > > > John.
> > > >
> > > >
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> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
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> >
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> >
>
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--

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0
Date: Tue, 06 Feb 2001 20:30:57 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Lismore flood pictures
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

Photos taken by Dave Ellem while we visited Lismore CBD during the flood 
peak are available in the article here:
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2001/docs/200102-01.htm

I'm yet to get all my photos back, but Dave's are very similar to mine.

regards, Michael

  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: novice and BoM site
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 18:04:58 +1100
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If its like todays rain in Wollongong it was because it was fine drizzle,
even some drizzlelus maximus showers ( very thick drizzle ) hardly dented
the
radar.

Michael


----- Original Message -----
From: "Carolyn" <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, 6 February 2001 16:30
Subject: aus-wx: novice and BoM site


> Hi All,
>
> I am just curious here about the radar images from the BoM.  As a complete
> novice here, I find it facinating that when looking at the images there is
> absolutely no cloud covering parts of the Hunter Valley, yet in Cessnock
and
> Maitland there has been steady rain all day.  Can someone please enlighten
> me as to why no rain is showing on the radar image?
>
> Carolyn
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 17:59:18 +1100
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It seems that all La Nina years have been duds, but then again I am only
going on memory and perhaps the long term trend is different.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, 5 February 2001 23:16
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lack of Pacific Ocean TC's


> Hi All,
>
> Just caught a note on the Ch 9 weather as I came in from work tonight, to
> the effect that this is the first time in 54 years that there have been no
> Pacific basin TC's by this late in the season.
>
> If this is correct, then this is quite a remarkable fact, and all the more
> so given that all the 'experts' were predicting an above average season
just
> a few months back.  What does it all mean I wonder...
>
> John.
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.35.254.2]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Nice chase on Southern Highlands
Date: Tue, 06 Feb 2001 21:47:29 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Feb 2001 10:47:29.0246 (UTC) FILETIME=[33713FE0:01C0902A]
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<x-flowed>
Hi Rhett,

> > > Hi Michael,
> > > I was on the other side of this storm today, on the hills west of
> > > Camden.  Took a few photo's and some video.  I've put some captures
> > > from the video up at:
> > > http://www7.ewebcity.com/nwweather/reports_reports.asp?id=20
> > >

These are really nice captures Rhett - I like the look of those storms.  On 
these sort of days, ie where the vertical windshear is  weak but where there 
is good instability and deep moisture, it is quite amazing what a difference 
60km (and topography) make.  I could see these storms developing to the 
south west with some very nice updrafts at times although it was clear 
nothing would move too far east over the Sydney basin let alone reach the 
northern beaches. Hard to get motivated for a chase (having to cross the 
entire metropolitan area) given such a setup. But this is what you miss out 
on!
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Tue, 06 Feb 2001 22:31:15 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian ASWA meeting
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The next ASWA Victoria meeting will be held this Saturday 10th February
beginning at 8.30am with breakfast at the Pancake Parlour, Doncaster
Road Doncaster in the meeting room.

Breakfast & bragging (B & B) - bring your appetite as well as your
photos

Meeting agenda..........
Welcome to 2001!!
General business
- meeting schedule for 2001
- between-meeting events

Discussion topics
- recent weather events - all present invited to contribute
- the 'Gypsy Low'

Short(!!) videos on the 2000 - 2001 summer season & TDU2K will be
shown.  If you bring a video please ensure that it is short & parked
ready to roll.

Please let me know if there are any other items you would like included.

Look forward to seeing you all.  Friends & visitors welcome!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 06 Feb 2001 22:37:44 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Nice chase on Southern Highlands
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> Rhett wrote,

>
> > > > I was on the other side of this storm today, <snip>

There's a bit of this starting to happen.  Macca & I have managed it in the past
almost by accident & Bussie & I did the same thing with the storm in the north
of Victoria on Sunday - he was on one side of it while I was running along the
southern edge of it and then across to the NW edge. My sister will kill me when
she finds out that I drove past her house and waved at her twice but didn't stop
(sorry mate - storms come first <g>).

Bussie & I both took video of this storm which will be shown at the meeting on
Saturday (if A Post get it here on time) - it'll be interesting what we (and the
BoM) can learn from this!!

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <paulmoss at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        "Ntaswa at Egroups. Com" <ntaswa at egroups.com>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Massive rainfall today......
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 17:27:50 +0930
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HI all, I received 100mm today in 1 hr from a massive storm that hit about
1.45pm and last for just on one hour!!

Hooraayyyy  Monsoon is here!!!

Paul in Darwin.

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Date: Tue, 06 Feb 2001 22:51:33 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: NSW ASWA meeting final reminder
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi NSW and ACT,

The NSW ASWA meeting will be held Saturday 10th February 2001

Address: 7 West Street North Sydney
Time: 6:00pm onwards or whenever you can attend.

Paul Graham will talk about the 21 January 1991 supercell and Jimmy Deguara 
will be presenting a simplified talk about supercell variations and the 
Chase Down Under 2000 and perhaps some other specific examples.

Bring some nibblies and drink along as well as money for the pizza. And of 
course bring your stories and video if you so wish.

As usual, you don't have to be a member to come along - visitors are very 
much as welcome.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
Date: Tue, 06 Feb 2001 23:22:52 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: VIC Tornado
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Hi Everyone

Some of you may already know about severe storms in VIC (I missed all
news reports and found out about it from others).
Just stumbled across this on the ABC website, saying the BoM have
confirmed a tornado !
They say it was 20km track (thats long!) and 1km wide (interesting)

Jane/Clyve can you find out anymore ? (Or any BoM people on the list???)
would be great to get some indepth details for us enthusiasts!!!
Here is the link to the article :
http://www.abc.net.au/news/weather/weath-6feb2001-4.htm

Matthew Smith

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Farewell Yahoo Groups.......
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 17:49:23 +0930
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Did anybody notice that towards the end of Yahoo Groups that sending email
to them became a very long and frustrating event.....

Good riddance I say....... back to waiting 3 - 5 hours now......

:)

Paul in Darwin.

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From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: lightning strike sign?
Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 17:45:37 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Hey Matt,
   Today was good in that the visibility from here was great till the storms 
neared, then it was just grey/black with no features, but the lightning was 
frequent and all around, ive always wanted to experience 'red' on radar and 
it was quite wild and electrical!.. Once the lightning had passed we had a 
blackout for 2 hours, i went down the bush and tried to find the tree in the 
pouring rain, i think i got it, because around it had a fireplace kind of 
smell and it was debarked from about 2/3rds down where the other trees 
werent, otherwise i couldnt see any real features, what do i look for?...

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2001 18:05:43 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning strike sign?
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Not too sure rune, I know some tree's explode when hit.. others die a slow
death,  others have a visual channel running down then where the strike
travelled. Whichever tree die's in the near future will be the one that got hit.
Assuming all tree's die once hit... anyone else know anything more ?

Matt Smith

Rune Peitersen wrote:

> Hey Matt,
>    Today was good in that the visibility from here was great till the storms
> neared, then it was just grey/black with no features, but the lightning was
> frequent and all around, ive always wanted to experience 'red' on radar and
> it was quite wild and electrical!.. Once the lightning had passed we had a
> blackout for 2 hours, i went down the bush and tried to find the tree in the
> pouring rain, i think i got it, because around it had a fireplace kind of
> smell and it was debarked from about 2/3rds down where the other trees
> werent, otherwise i couldnt see any real features, what do i look for?...
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: FW: Floods in NE NSW
Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2001 15:04:32 +1000
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Hi

Anyway, I have just got home from being stuck for two nights just south of
Tweed Heads. We were comming home from Sydney on Thursday, and decided to go
all the way that day to avoid being stuck behind dozens of floods. We
reached Muwillumbah around 7.30 pm and had had to go around and through
water at various places. We were following a group of semi's and some cars
along the pacific highway. We reached the bridge to Terranora over the tweed
river, but once we were over we saw more deep water and decided to go back.
We returned to a small town called Tumbulgum and stopped at the tavern
there, where we could get the car up a little bit higher. We were then stuck
there for two nights watching the waters go up and down, almost reaching the
car. We finally heard thismorning that a road from Mooball, through to
Chinderah and Tweed heads. We were also told that the road back to
Murwillumbah, one of the lowest points on the road was clear of water. We
drove to the SES road block at Condong and were told we could get back, and
around though the Mooball detour. So we rushed back loaded out stuff in the
car and drove back. We made it easily once we got out.

It was quite a relief to get back home after being stuck in the back of a
pub for three days. I also saw some areas with damage consistant with
tornado damage. Several large trees were broken in different directions,
while trees just metres away were undamaged.

David

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 11:15:28 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: novice and BoM site
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Carolyn and Michael:

Drizzle is not detected very well because of the very small drop sizes. 
Moreover, these rains are probably low-topped tropical rains and thus, the
radar may be 'overshooting' the rain.  That is, the "radar horizon" at that
range is above the rain.  But I don't know the distance of  the Hunter
Valley from the radar nor do I know the antenna elevation used.  But, it is
not uncommon for low-topped tropical rains to be poorly detected.

Les

> If its like todays rain in Wollongong it was because it was fine drizzle,
> even some drizzlelus maximus showers ( very thick drizzle ) hardly dented
> the
> radar.
> 
> Michael
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Carolyn" <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, 6 February 2001 16:30
> Subject: aus-wx: novice and BoM site
> 
> 
> > Hi All,
> >
> > I am just curious here about the radar images from the BoM.  As a
complete
> > novice here, I find it facinating that when looking at the images there
is
> > absolutely no cloud covering parts of the Hunter Valley, yet in
Cessnock
> and
> > Maitland there has been steady rain all day.  Can someone please
enlighten
> > me as to why no rain is showing on the radar image?
> >
> > Carolyn


************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


essage text written by INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com
>If its like todays rain in Wollongong it was because it was fine drizzle,
even some drizzlelus maximus showers ( very thick drizzle ) hardly dented
the
radar.

Michael


----- Original Message -----
From: "Carolyn" <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, 6 February 2001 16:30
Subject: aus-wx: novice and BoM site


> Hi All,
>
> I am just curious here about the radar images from the BoM.  As a
complete
> novice here, I find it facinating that when looking at the images there
is
> absolutely no cloud covering parts of the Hunter Valley, yet in Cessnock
and
> Maitland there has been steady rain all day.  Can someone please
enlighten
> me as to why no rain is showing on the radar image?
>
> Carolyn<

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian ASWA meeting
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 23:32:38 +1100
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Just a brief word of warning.....I have over 28 hours of video footage taken
since the last meeting so it could be a long haul...........

Chris Gribben and I chased to NW Vic on 11 November.....and the resulting 1
tornado and 6 funnels will be shown as well as:
- A BEASTLY Hunter Supercell which I can't beleive we CORE PUNCHED on TDU2K
(the biggest, blackest, greenest, meanest, most terrifying storm you will
see for a very long time.....and this is FAR from an understatement).
- A nice little severe storm near/in/on Glenn Innes which may've gone
supercellular for a short while which produced some nice lightning (Jane may
be kind enough to bring along her footage of this as well - please...hehe) -
another TDU2K episode.
- A supercell WAY out west, followed up by an AWESOME display from mother
nature and then some flooding in Charleville.
- A small pulse storm which evolved into a severe multicell which produced
some FANTASTIC lightning, microbursts (some of the best i've ever seen) and
a weak TORNADO.  This will be concluded by a spectacular sunset chase to the
Hunter with one of (if not THE most) spectacularly photogenic thunderstorm
ever seen in Australia.

This should take up about 2 or so hours (maybe 3hrs if people can stand to
watch it).....but I will be happy to leave certain parts of this out in
order to make room for other presentations/videos/etc.

This should be a very enjoyable meeting and I know there are going to be
some new faces there too so I'll be hoping for some big numbers being the
first meeting back after the long, stormy summer (which is FAR from over -
watch out tomorrow and Thursday Viccos!!)

Regards,

"Macca the Madman"



----- Original Message -----
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 10:31 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian ASWA meeting


> The next ASWA Victoria meeting will be held this Saturday 10th February
> beginning at 8.30am with breakfast at the Pancake Parlour, Doncaster
> Road Doncaster in the meeting room.
>
> Breakfast & bragging (B & B) - bring your appetite as well as your
> photos
>
> Meeting agenda..........
> Welcome to 2001!!
> General business
> - meeting schedule for 2001
> - between-meeting events
>
> Discussion topics
> - recent weather events - all present invited to contribute
> - the 'Gypsy Low'
>
> Short(!!) videos on the 2000 - 2001 summer season & TDU2K will be
> shown.  If you bring a video please ensure that it is short & parked
> ready to roll.
>
> Please let me know if there are any other items you would like included.
>
> Look forward to seeing you all.  Friends & visitors welcome!
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian Tornado
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 23:24:06 +1100
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<x-html>
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<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=2>Hi 
all,</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just a quick report from the ABC website regarding 
the storms in Victoria on Sunday....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT color=#000099 
face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=4></FONT></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT color=#000099 
face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=4><B>Tornado hits Nalinga, Vic</B> 
</FONT></DIV>
<P><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=3>The weather bureau believes 
it was a tornado which hit the Goulburn Valley town of Nalinga two nights 
ago.<BR><BR>A team from the severe warning section of the Bureau of Meteorology 
visited the scene yesterday afternoon.<BR><BR>Tony Bannister says winds of up to 
150 kilometres an hour battered homes, partly ripping the roofing from four 
buildings in Nalinga. <BR><BR>He says the tornado covered an area 20 kilometres 
long and one kilometre wide.<BR><BR>"We've had quite an interesting last year 
and the start of this year," he said.<BR><BR>"We had a tornado near Milawa so 
when we actually photocopied the map to come up to Shepparton we saw the fax on 
the same map was where the tornado had gone through near Kyabram and that was 
during winter last year."<BR></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Thanks to Matt Smith who found this 
article.&nbsp; </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Regards, </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Macca</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">BTW - Victoria's "tornado alley" 
comes alive after it lies dormant during the month of January.&nbsp; January has 
been the only month where no funnel/tornadic activity has been reported in 
Victoria since May 
2000.</P></FONT><!--end insert of copy for top stories--></FONT></BODY></HTML>

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Date: Wed, 07 Feb 2001 08:48:41 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: Next QLD ASWA Meeting!
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Just a reminder about the next QLD ASWA Meeting this Saturday the 10th
of February (first for 2001!)  Also adding in to please bring $4 for
pizza/drinks and if you have any photos or video footage to bring them
along!

Michael Bath will have his (very impressive!) Casino HP and LP 
supercell footage with him, as well as his awesome tornado footage from
last week with him!  For those who have not yet seen his photos of this
tornado go here: 

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2001/docs/200101-02.htm 

There will also be plenty of footage from January 17/18, and 
previous significant thunderstorms in December and January!!!  It'll be
a great time to catch up with everyone and see some new storm 
footage! 

To recap the details: 

Company Name  Spherion Technology. 
Location      Level 4, 200 Creek Street (right next to the Novatel) 
Phone         07 3004 3611 
Date          This Saturday, 10th of February. 
The time will remain for a 10am commencement. 

Please give me a quick email if you can attend so I know for 
numbers! 

Thanks - look forward to seeing you all there! 
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC in models.
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2001 09:51:57 +1100 
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Jonty,

not sure whether I would agree that the global models do not have skill in
picking tropical cyclogenesis - TC Terri is a classic, which was picked by
most global models well before its development, and indeed tracked quickly
SW (as also suggested by the models). With the ECMWF model now running at an
effective resolution of 40km (GASP at about 70km, and most other models
similar) it has a resolution comparable to many of the purely tropical
models which have been used for TC prediction for the best part of 10 years
with considerable success. Where I think a major problems arises is in our
interpretation of "cyclogenesis" - the global models are just too course to
represent the very low pressures/strong P gradients, so modelled lows are
broader and less deep that their real-world counterparts. All up sounds
likes a great little project for someone to look at... 

Of course, I wouldn't advocate forecasting TCs on the basis of model
development 4 days out - just like I wouldn't advocate a gale warning 4 days
out for say Melbourne, but global models do provide useful pointers, as to
what and where to look. Any "predictions" should then be weighed against
conceptual models based on the MJO, surges etc. something you probably know
a lot more about than me! 

BTW it continues to be hot and sticky down here in Melbourne, but just too
stable for thunderies. Hopefully the front approaching on Thursday will lead
to sufficient destabilisation, but at this stage it look a bit marginal.
Resorting to the global models, things could get interesting late on the
weekend, early next week with a shot of cold air progged to move rapidly
north towards Victoria...  though this is a long long way out and the usual
caveats apply..

Cheers,

David.
   
>Just reread my previous post, and I realised I made it sound like I was
>putting all my faith in a host of globals to pick tropical cyclogenesis at
>3-4 days lead time. Well, that's not the case as there is no current
>operational model that has any skill at all in this particular area. I
>should have added some of the reasons for the indicated increase in
>activity.
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 20:44:17 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Next QLD ASWA Meeting!
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Can someone give me a lift to the meeting?  I am in the central U.S. and
will give instructions on how to find me if they will agree to get me to
the meeting.  <S>

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Massive rainfall today......
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2001 12:42:42 +1100
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Hi Paul.
Not bad considering you have been waiting since august last year ( I recall
an email when you said the build-up looks like it has began) all you need
now is a cyclone!....regards Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: Paul Mossman <paulmoss at bigpond.com>
To: Aussie Weather Mail List <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>;
Ntaswa at Egroups. Com <ntaswa at egroups.com>; <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 6:57 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Massive rainfall today......


> HI all, I received 100mm today in 1 hr from a massive storm that hit about
> 1.45pm and last for just on one hour!!
>
> Hooraayyyy  Monsoon is here!!!
>
> Paul in Darwin.
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW ASWA meeting final reminder
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2001 12:40:00 +1100
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Hi JIMMY.
Is this the first time all eastern states have their meeting on the same
day?,perhaps sometime in the future we could all be liked up by computer and
TV screens,anyway good luck for 2001 and hope to you this year
sometimes.regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 10:51 PM
Subject: aus-wx: NSW ASWA meeting final reminder


> Hi NSW and ACT,
>
> The NSW ASWA meeting will be held Saturday 10th February 2001
>
> Address: 7 West Street North Sydney
> Time: 6:00pm onwards or whenever you can attend.
>
> Paul Graham will talk about the 21 January 1991 supercell and Jimmy
Deguara
> will be presenting a simplified talk about supercell variations and the
> Chase Down Under 2000 and perhaps some other specific examples.
>
> Bring some nibblies and drink along as well as money for the pizza. And of
> course bring your stories and video if you so wish.
>
> As usual, you don't have to be a member to come along - visitors are very
> much as welcome.
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Heavy rain east of Adelaide?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2001 16:08:20 +1100 (EST)
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Just looked at the radar to see some very impressive activity in
the Strathalbyn area. Any South Australians out there anywhere near
it?

5.2mm rain in 10 minutes according to the latest METARS.

The SA observations page is also showing an alleged 132.6mm at 
Noarlunga. There doesn't seem to be any support for this and I think
it may be dodgy - any comments from the locals?

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Ntaswa at yahoogroups. Com" <ntaswa at egroups.com>,
        "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Massive storm on way.... Possible TC end of week
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2001 16:29:39 +0930
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Hey everyone.

Bout time the weather has returned - heavy storm about 2.30pm today and
another moving in now - black and scary looking!!

Models & BOM expect a TC to form in the north of the Gulf towards the end of
the week.

Will be interesting to see what happens! BTW - the Low of the NW Coast is
set to move away from the coast and not effect it.

Paul in darwin

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu
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Date: Tue, 06 Feb 2001 21:15:23 -0600
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Iain T. Johnstone" <johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Next QLD ASWA Meeting!
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<x-flowed>
At 07:44 PM 2/6/01, you wrote:
>Can someone give me a lift to the meeting?  I am in the central U.S. and
>will give instructions on how to find me if they will agree to get me to
>the meeting.  <S>
>
>Les
>
>************************
>Leslie R. Lemon
>Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
>Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
>Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
>E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com

Maybe we can share fuel costs and driving Les - I'm in Madison, WI.

Tom 

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</x-flowed>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Nice chase on Southern Highlands
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2001 17:29:05 +1100
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These are excellent. I was in a slightly less desirable position as the CGs
were simply too close.

MIchael


> > > > Hi Michael,
> > > > I was on the other side of this storm today, on the hills west of
> > > > Camden.  Took a few photo's and some video.  I've put some captures
> > > > from the video up at:
> > > > http://www7.ewebcity.com/nwweather/reports_reports.asp?id=20
> > > >
>



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Wed, 07 Feb 2001 17:49:21 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi Matt,

I am glad that you have found the confirmation because I suspected from the 
severe damage and also the fact that a person in the area affected was 
interviewed suggested the winds were blowing objects from one direction and 
then blew them from another. This to me indicates a probable tornado. I 
recall in 7th February 1984, yep today is the anniversary, that the 
tornadic storm in Schofields and Riverstone did exactly that but not as 
sharp as these were suggesting. So we must have been more away from the 
tornado than the one interviewed. We had a gradual veering of the winds 
from the SW to S and then SE and then from the NE. SW and S winds were the 
strongest winds.

And yes the path is long considering I think the wind shear was not that 
incredible on the day and the storm would not have moved too fast. As to 
the width, I would say that the damage area would have been 1km but I'd say 
the tornado would not have been that wide.

Another addition to an interesting summer.

Jimmy Deguara

At 11:22 PM 6/02/01 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi Everyone
>
>Some of you may already know about severe storms in VIC (I missed all
>news reports and found out about it from others).
>Just stumbled across this on the ABC website, saying the BoM have
>confirmed a tornado !
>They say it was 20km track (thats long!) and 1km wide (interesting)
>
>Jane/Clyve can you find out anymore ? (Or any BoM people on the list???)
>would be great to get some indepth details for us enthusiasts!!!
>Here is the link to the article :
>http://www.abc.net.au/news/weather/weath-6feb2001-4.htm
>
>Matthew Smith
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2001 18:19:56 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy rain east of Adelaide?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>Just looked at the radar to see some very impressive activity in
>the Strathalbyn area. Any South Australians out there anywhere near
>it?
>
>5.2mm rain in 10 minutes according to the latest METARS.
>
>The SA observations page is also showing an alleged 132.6mm at
>Noarlunga. There doesn't seem to be any support for this and I think
>it may be dodgy - any comments from the locals?
>
>Blair

Hi Blair

Spectacular deveopment over the Lofties this afternoon.  I couldn't chase,
but did manage to photograph a fab anvil with overshoot and new boiling
tower over the Strathalbyn area [~60km out].  I've just heard on the TV
news that one of the vineyards near Strath got 45mm in half an hour and is
busy sandbagging as we speak.  Couldn't see anything special over the
Noarlunga area - I'd say that reading is spurious.

More tomorrow before the cool change.

Phil

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: novice and BoM site
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2001 17:38:57 +1100
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The low topped cloud is a factor in the Illawarra, even today light drizzle
persisted until about 3pm in a very narrow band on the escarpment edge near
Macquarie Pass. The source of the drizzle in my guesstimate was only level
or slightly above the actual escarpment height. Given that the radar is on
top of the escarpment it is no wonder it hardly shows.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, 7 February 2001 3:15
Subject: Re: aus-wx: novice and BoM site


> Carolyn and Michael:
>
> Drizzle is not detected very well because of the very small drop sizes.
> Moreover, these rains are probably low-topped tropical rains and thus, the
> radar may be 'overshooting' the rain.  That is, the "radar horizon" at
that
> range is above the rain.  But I don't know the distance of  the Hunter
> Valley from the radar nor do I know the antenna elevation used.  But, it
is
> not uncommon for low-topped tropical rains to be poorly detected.
>
> Les
>
> > If its like todays rain in Wollongong it was because it was fine
drizzle,
> > even some drizzlelus maximus showers ( very thick drizzle ) hardly
dented
> > the
> > radar.
> >
> > Michael
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Carolyn" <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, 6 February 2001 16:30
> > Subject: aus-wx: novice and BoM site
> >
> >
> > > Hi All,
> > >
> > > I am just curious here about the radar images from the BoM.  As a
> complete
> > > novice here, I find it facinating that when looking at the images
there
> is
> > > absolutely no cloud covering parts of the Hunter Valley, yet in
> Cessnock
> > and
> > > Maitland there has been steady rain all day.  Can someone please
> enlighten
> > > me as to why no rain is showing on the radar image?
> > >
> > > Carolyn
>
>
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>
>
> essage text written by INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >If its like todays rain in Wollongong it was because it was fine drizzle,
> even some drizzlelus maximus showers ( very thick drizzle ) hardly dented
> the
> radar.
>
> Michael
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Carolyn" <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, 6 February 2001 16:30
> Subject: aus-wx: novice and BoM site
>
>
> > Hi All,
> >
> > I am just curious here about the radar images from the BoM.  As a
> complete
> > novice here, I find it facinating that when looking at the images there
> is
> > absolutely no cloud covering parts of the Hunter Valley, yet in Cessnock
> and
> > Maitland there has been steady rain all day.  Can someone please
> enlighten
> > me as to why no rain is showing on the radar image?
> >
> > Carolyn<
>
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From: "Nathan Thompson" <naththo at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy rain east of Adelaide?
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2001 22:13:49 +1030
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The obs for rainfall for Noarlunga since 9am is an error. Hehehe. Hope this
won't happen again.

From Nathan.
naththo at one.net.au
http://severestorm.tripod.com/index.html
----- Original Message -----
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 07, 2001 3:38 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Heavy rain east of Adelaide?


> Just looked at the radar to see some very impressive activity in
> the Strathalbyn area. Any South Australians out there anywhere near
> it?
>
> 5.2mm rain in 10 minutes according to the latest METARS.
>
> The SA observations page is also showing an alleged 132.6mm at
> Noarlunga. There doesn't seem to be any support for this and I think
> it may be dodgy - any comments from the locals?
>
> Blair
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>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Apparently-From: <njsykes at yahoo.com>
From: "Nick Sykes" <njsykes at yahoo.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Victoria Outlook
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2001 22:57:06 +1100
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Hey All
Looks like some storms out near the SA/Vic border tonight. Victoria looks
half interesting for the next couple of days. There is a large amount of
moisture over SA atm which will hopefully be drawn over Vic by the
approaching trough.
Upper level support is a bit dodgy over the state atm, but more supportive
conditions over the SE of SA today will move further east, aided by the
approaching trough. Western Vic looks to be the best bet for storms
tomorrow, with a chance in Melbourne into the evening/night.
Friday has some nice potential in northern Victoria with the trough slowly
moving through and higher DP's. Upper level support looks better again, even
with a hint of jet stream support. Could see some severe action up there.
Cloud could be a worry.
I pick up my car tomorrow after 8 months of no car :):) I'll probably chase
up north on friday and to the west of melb in the evening tomorrow if
something decent develops.
Anyone else care to comment on the coming days???
P.S     40 tipped for Melbourne tomorrow, and with increasing humidity
should make for a uncomfortable day (not so if storms develop).
Well off to try and sleep, warm night in melbourne tonight
Nick Sykes


_________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free  at yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 8 Feb 2001 00:48:04 +1100 (AEDT)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC in models.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi David,

Thanks for the thoughts on this issue. However, I remain unconvinced that
globals have skill in the problem of tropical cyclogenesis. I think a
couple of (quite diverse) points are worthy of mention here. 

Firstly, a bit of terminology. Tropical cyclogenesis is basically the
process that occurs when a pre-existing cloud cluster (produced and
sustained by environmental forcing) becomes a self-sustaining entity. This
usually occurs while the disturbance is still in the depression stage
(central pressures generally in the 995 to 1000 hPa sort of area). This is
considered to be a totally different process to further strengthening of
the TC - normally referred to as intensification. 

I wish I had a dollar for every false tropical vortex a global model has
spun up - if it was the USAVN, I could retire right now and buy an island,
but I'd be doing pretty well with any of them. Where they can be useful is
in providing guidance to the favourability of the large scale environment
for TCyclogenesis to occur. This is reflected in the (3D) wind fields and
perhaps by the fact that the model with produce a weak low "somewhere".
However, the positioning of the formation of such systems is invariably so
poor as to be useless in any practical sense, and the timing is often just
as bad. Occasionally of course, the model is going to be close to the mark
through pure coincidence - e.g. TC Terri as you mention. I should not of
used the work "skill" as this implies the use of a statistic in comparison
to something else, such as climatology. As far as I'm aware, no such
studies have been undertaken. (In fact, the cyclogenesis problem is
surprisingly overlooked from an operational research point of view - far
more effort goes into motion forecasting).

This should come as no surprise, as these models can not resolve many of
the processes (believed to be) important in TCyclogenesis. This is another
point I want to make - one that is usually misunderstood or ignored - the
issue of model resolution. With its T511 truncation, the ECMWF "glossy" 
claims to have a resolution of about 40 km. What this is really saying, is
that if it were a finite difference model, it would have a grid spacing of
about 40 km. This does NOT mean that it can resolve processes down to a
scale of 40 km!! The smallest wavelength process that could possibly be
resolved by such a grid (the Nyquist wavelength if you like) is about
double this, or 80 km. Even this is pushing it to the very limit. This is
inadequate to resolve the mid-level, cold cored meso-vortices believed to
be a vital part of (most) cyclogenesis events.

It may even turn out that this argument is beside the point completely -
many researchers believe that TCyclogenesis can not be thought of as a
deterministic process at all, rather it is purely stochastic in nature. In
other words, it doesn't matter what resolution your model has, it still
won't perform well on the cyclogenesis problem. That remains to be seen,
but certainly at the present time there is really no useful dynamical
model guidance to TCyclogensis.

Once you have a TC in place, the models are much more at home with things
as far as moving them about is concerned. But that is another story...

Cheers,

Jonty.
____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au

Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane Regional Office
295 Ann Street
Brisbane  Qld   4000
Australia

Ph +61 7 3239 8700

____________________________________________________________________

On Wed, 7 Feb 2001, David Jones wrote:

> Jonty,
> 
> not sure whether I would agree that the global models do not have skill in
> picking tropical cyclogenesis - TC Terri is a classic, which was picked by
> most global models well before its development, and indeed tracked quickly
> SW (as also suggested by the models). With the ECMWF model now running at an
> effective resolution of 40km (GASP at about 70km, and most other models
> similar) it has a resolution comparable to many of the purely tropical
> models which have been used for TC prediction for the best part of 10 years
> with considerable success. Where I think a major problems arises is in our
> interpretation of "cyclogenesis" - the global models are just too course to
> represent the very low pressures/strong P gradients, so modelled lows are
> broader and less deep that their real-world counterparts. All up sounds
> likes a great little project for someone to look at... 
> 
> Of course, I wouldn't advocate forecasting TCs on the basis of model
> development 4 days out - just like I wouldn't advocate a gale warning 4 days
> out for say Melbourne, but global models do provide useful pointers, as to
> what and where to look. Any "predictions" should then be weighed against
> conceptual models based on the MJO, surges etc. something you probably know
> a lot more about than me! 
> 
> BTW it continues to be hot and sticky down here in Melbourne, but just too
> stable for thunderies. Hopefully the front approaching on Thursday will lead
> to sufficient destabilisation, but at this stage it look a bit marginal.
> Resorting to the global models, things could get interesting late on the
> weekend, early next week with a shot of cold air progged to move rapidly
> north towards Victoria...  though this is a long long way out and the usual
> caveats apply..
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> David.
>    
> >Just reread my previous post, and I realised I made it sound like I was
> >putting all my faith in a host of globals to pick tropical cyclogenesis at
> >3-4 days lead time. Well, that's not the case as there is no current
> >operational model that has any skill at all in this particular area. I
> >should have added some of the reasons for the indicated increase in
> >activity.
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> 


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Victoria-good potential..
Date: Thu, 8 Feb 2001 08:59:26 +1100
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Hi all.
Good potential in Victoria today especially the western central and northern
areas,moisture is relitivly good especially in the mid levels,look out for
possible severe storms in the said regions!.Also most of SA is looking ok
too.regards Clyve Herbert.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Victoria today
Date: Thu, 8 Feb 2001 09:20:12 +1100
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Morning all,

Victoria west of 143E is already firing with a very bright white anvil
already showing up on the satpics.  You can actually see the anvil from
Melbourne!!  Dewpoints are between 16C & 18C in the western part of the
state.

Draw a line from Cape Otway to the north of the state & if you are anywhere
west of that line in the next few hours, you probably have a pretty good
chance of running some film through your camera!!

The avaiation forecast confirms this with
SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED NEAR PORTLAND ABOUT 05Z, EXTENDING TO  LAMAROO/CAPE
OTWAY 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LAND W OF 143E  FROM 02Z,
EXTENDING EASTWARDS TO REMAINING LAND AREA FROM 05Z,
MAINLY ABOUT THE RANGES AND NEAR TROUGH. LOW CLOUD WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
<snip>
CLOUD:
 ISOL CB 7000/40000 LAND W OF 143E DEVELOPING FROM 02Z AND EXTENDING TO
REMAINING LAND AREAS FROM 05Z, MAINLY ABOUT RANGES AND TROUGH.  SCT ST
1000/3000 IN SHRA, LOCALLY BKN IN TSRA. SCT CU 4000/10000
LAND WITH AREAS BKN IN W FROM 03Z. OCCASIONAL CU TOPS TO 16000FT. SCT ACAS
ABV 10000FT IN W.

Enjoy!!

Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.19]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: Flash Flood clip
Date: Thu, 08 Feb 2001 10:00:47 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Feb 2001 23:00:48.0001 (UTC) FILETIME=[CF283710:01C09159]
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi every1,

Received this email this morning...I can't help her but maybe somebody here 
can...

Kevin Phyland


>From: Tammy Klassen <rklassen5 at home.com>
>To: kjphyland at hotmail.com
>Subject: Flash Flood clip
>Date: Wed, 07 Feb 2001 12:04:52 -0800
>
>Hello.  My name is Rick Klassen.  I make short videos for youth
>rallies.  I was wondering if it is at possible to get a clip of a flash
>flood.  Or do you know where I could get one?
>
>Thank You
>
>Rick Klassen

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria today
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2001 23:06:03 -0000
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Thanx for that, going to webcam now (:

Les


Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
StormCam:
http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
ICQ: 17296776
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 07, 2001 10:20 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Victoria today


> Morning all,
>
> Victoria west of 143E is already firing with a very bright white anvil
> already showing up on the satpics.  You can actually see the anvil from
> Melbourne!!  Dewpoints are between 16C & 18C in the western part of the
> state.
>
> Draw a line from Cape Otway to the north of the state & if you are
anywhere
> west of that line in the next few hours, you probably have a pretty good
> chance of running some film through your camera!!
>
> The avaiation forecast confirms this with
> SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED NEAR PORTLAND ABOUT 05Z, EXTENDING TO
LAMAROO/CAPE
> OTWAY 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LAND W OF 143E  FROM 02Z,
> EXTENDING EASTWARDS TO REMAINING LAND AREA FROM 05Z,
> MAINLY ABOUT THE RANGES AND NEAR TROUGH. LOW CLOUD WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.
> <snip>
> CLOUD:
>  ISOL CB 7000/40000 LAND W OF 143E DEVELOPING FROM 02Z AND EXTENDING TO
> REMAINING LAND AREAS FROM 05Z, MAINLY ABOUT RANGES AND TROUGH.  SCT ST
> 1000/3000 IN SHRA, LOCALLY BKN IN TSRA. SCT CU 4000/10000
> LAND WITH AREAS BKN IN W FROM 03Z. OCCASIONAL CU TOPS TO 16000FT. SCT ACAS
> ABV 10000FT IN W.
>
> Enjoy!!
>
> Jane
> ---------------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> ---------------------------------------
>
>
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria Outlook
Date: Wed, 07 Feb 2001 23:32:35 
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<x-flowed>

Hi People, things are starting to look good as I type, Towers going up, 
already took a couple of shots of the growing Cu, looks pretty good, so I'll 
be patroling the outskirts of the huge metro of Colac throughout most of the 
avo.
Les Baxter
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X-Originating-IP: [144.132.32.209]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Vic is starting to fire!
Date: Thu, 08 Feb 2001 11:53:28 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Finally we're going to get some decent action after the "storm drought"

TCU and CB's going up in a line stretching from the coast (Cape Otway), 
through Ararat to the north.  The sat pic is looking good.

I'm probably going to be heading out shortly (as soon as I can finish this 
work!).

Liam

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</x-flowed>
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic is starting to fire!
Date: Thu, 8 Feb 2001 01:00:12 -0000
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So good I'm watching from the other side of the world!

Looks like its firing up south of Melbourne as i speak.

http://webcam.omni.net.au/

from a storm free UK since Christmas 

Les (UK)


Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
StormCam:
http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
ICQ: 17296776

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Geelong Weather Services" <gws at pipeline.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Vic is starting to fire!
Date: Thu, 8 Feb 2001 12:21:44 +1100
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Hi Les, Although they have had thunder at Lethbridge (between Meredith &
Geelong) "desaturation" seems to be taking effect and Geelong appears to be
likely to miss out once again on any rain out of this one.  Regards, Lindsay
Smail.

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Les Crossan
Sent: Thursday, 8 February 2001 11:00 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic is starting to fire!


So good I'm watching from the other side of the world!

Looks like its firing up south of Melbourne as i speak.

http://webcam.omni.net.au/

from a storm free UK since Christmas

Les (UK)


Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
StormCam:
http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
ICQ: 17296776

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X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.19]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Wycheproof going off!!!
Date: Thu, 08 Feb 2001 14:54:09 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Hi every1,

Been a filthy day so far (you could drown in the open air!) but storms going 
up everywhere at the moment!! After an isolated Cb about 9.30 a.m. it was 
just overcast until about 1.45 p.m. when storms started shooting up all 
around. Brief drenchings of tropical rain have been interspersed with 
occasional thunder for the last two hours!

Alas, I'm trapped at school and can't get out to get pix until about 4 p.m. 
:((

Hope everyone else is getting some action!

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof (36.08 S 143.23 E)
_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Hows the weather over your way, Leslie R Lemon?
Date: Thu, 8 Feb 2001 16:56:17 +1100
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Hi all,

Glad to be back on world.std.com after a few hassles re-subscribing. I'm
slowly weaning myself off my old (and loyal) local isp and moving over to a
bigger isp so you can email (if need be) on both of the emails below, for
the next coupla months or so. Check out my new email addy :-)

Now to some business and pardon the non-aussie weather questions.



How's your winter going Leslie R Lemon? I notice its fairly warm right now.
Did you escape that warm tongue of air from the south?

How much snow have you had this winter, so far?

Cheers,

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Darwin Waterspouts.......
Date: Thu, 8 Feb 2001 18:32:20 +0930
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Hi all - fantastic waterspouts yesterday at Nightcliff - see pics here:

www.yahoogroups.com/ntaswa

Look in the files section - amazing pics.

Heavy storms here tonight - and looks like the start of next week could be
very interesting.....

Rgds, Paul.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Catherine" <faerinelda at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Near Frankston
Date: Thu, 8 Feb 2001 20:53:18 +1100
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Hi all its me im here,

I hope i use the right terminology

there is currently a very active and noisy large thunderstorm just south of
frankston. quite a few CG's per minute and very slow movement towards the
east. i have however noticed some of the cloud base moving south but the
wind is coming from the south. the sky beneath the base is green in tinge
and it is quite electrical. i am soooo pissed that i dont have a camera with
film for this as it is amazing.

anyhoo thnaks
Catherine
WW

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0
Date: Thu, 08 Feb 2001 21:33:01 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW ASWA meeting final reminder
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi Clyve,

I don't think it is the first time we have matched each other with three 
Eastern State meetings on the same day but yes it will be interesting one 
day if we could have it linked up as you suggested.

I think all three meetings will be exciting with so much significant weather.

Jimmy Deguara

At 12:40 PM 7/02/01 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi JIMMY.
>Is this the first time all eastern states have their meeting on the same
>day?,perhaps sometime in the future we could all be liked up by computer and
>TV screens,anyway good luck for 2001 and hope to you this year
>sometimes.regards Clyve Herbert.
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 10:51 PM
>Subject: aus-wx: NSW ASWA meeting final reminder
>
>
> > Hi NSW and ACT,
> >
> > The NSW ASWA meeting will be held Saturday 10th February 2001
> >
> > Address: 7 West Street North Sydney
> > Time: 6:00pm onwards or whenever you can attend.
> >
> > Paul Graham will talk about the 21 January 1991 supercell and Jimmy
>Deguara
> > will be presenting a simplified talk about supercell variations and the
> > Chase Down Under 2000 and perhaps some other specific examples.
> >
> > Bring some nibblies and drink along as well as money for the pizza. And of
> > course bring your stories and video if you so wish.
> >
> > As usual, you don't have to be a member to come along - visitors are very
> > much as welcome.
> >
> > -----------------------------------------
> > Jimmy Deguara
> > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> >
> > from
> > Schofields, Sydney
> > NSW Australia
> >
> > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> >
> > Web Page with Michael Bath
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> > http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> >
> > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >
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>
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-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [144.132.32.209]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: STA & Intense lightning in Melb
Date: Thu, 08 Feb 2001 22:36:26 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Feb 2001 11:36:26.0609 (UTC) FILETIME=[5F12C610:01C091C3]
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<x-flowed>
Hi all.

I've just come back from Doncaster Shoppingtown

There's some great storms around this evening, with A LOT of lightning 
activity.  For a while there, I could sometimes see 3-4 flashes per second.  
This must have lasted more than 15 mins.

The storms are moving ESE, and are currently areound the 
Mordialloc/Frankston region, with some more further east.

Is anyone else out and about tonight?

STA is also current for the metro area

IDW10V01

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
VICTORIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

NEWS FLASH - FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Priority
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

for the Melbourne Metropolitan area

Issued at 10:04pm on Thursday the 8th of February 2001

Severe thunderstorms are currently moving across Port Phillip Bay and
southeastern suburbs of Melbourne. Heavy rain has been reported .

People in southeastern and eastern suburbs are warned that storms could 
produce

1. Heavy rain and local flash flooding
2. Large hail
3. Damaging wind.
[ Radio media to play Severe Weather News Tag Alert 4 here ]

The current thunderstorm warning, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, 
indicates
the strong probability of intense storm activity in this area.

In the interests of community safety the SES suggests some simple 
precautions:
- secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home, then:
- stay indoors if possible
- if you are outdoors, avoid sheltering under trees
- listen to the radio station for the storm updates
- switch off computers and electrical appliances.

This warning will be updated at midnight.







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</x-flowed>
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 08 Feb 01 22:28:35 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm Near Frankston
Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway 
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Hello Catherine!

08 Feb 01 20:53, you wrote to All:

 C> there is currently a very active and noisy large thunderstorm just
 C> south of frankston. quite a few CG's per minute and very slow movement
 C> towards the east. i have however noticed some of the cloud base moving
 C> south but the wind is coming from the south. the sky beneath the base
 C> is green in tinge and it is quite electrical. i am soooo pissed that i
 C> dont have a camera with film for this as it is amazing.

Saw the storm from a distance at around 9:15. Even from 50km away, could see
that there were several lightning discharges/min.  Was out watching Mir pass
overhead as the sky was partly cloudy overhead.  Was spectacular seeing the
satellite pass behing the clouds with the flashes as a backdrop. :)

Tony, VK3JED

.. DURACELL.BAT arced.     SysOp is shocked!
--
|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 08 Feb 2001 23:45:45 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: STA & Intense lightning in Melb
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Yep, I'd been watching the anvil crawlers to the south & couldn't resist going
out for a closer look. I was in the thick of it from Narre Warren to Pakenham -
100mm/hr+ for 20 minutes or so, flooding on the freeway *all* the way reducing
the safe speed from 110kmh to 40kmh, creeks are full, water running in sheets
across the road.  Strobe lightning for much of the time - spent some of the
time waiting for darkness to strike!!

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


Liam Domanski wrote:

> Hi all.
>
> I've just come back from Doncaster Shoppingtown
>
> There's some great storms around this evening, with A LOT of lightning
> activity.  For a while there, I could sometimes see 3-4 flashes per second.
> This must have lasted more than 15 mins.
>
> The storms are moving ESE, and are currently areound the
> Mordialloc/Frankston region, with some more further east.
>
> Is anyone else out and about tonight?
>

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From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Yesterday's Storms
Date: Fri, 09 Feb 2001 00:04:49 
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 Feb 2001 00:04:49.0511 (UTC) FILETIME=[EB49DF70:01C0922B]
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<x-flowed>
Hi Folks

Yesterday avo was great, Large thunderstorms developed to the west of Colac 
and there was a very very large storm over the Otways, took some happy 
snaps. The rain was magnificent after sweltering in the 40+deg heat, I 
bathed in the rain for a whole 20mins. Lots and Lots of CGs.
Currently cloudy here, some Mid Sized Cu about, and a line of Cu to the 
east, there could be some more stuff to come.
Regards
Les Baxter
_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
From: "Catherine" <faerinelda at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: storms and the loop radar
Date: Fri, 9 Feb 2001 03:19:55 +1100
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Just a quckie,

I just want to know if anyone has the loop of the storm system passing the
SE of the bay I'd like it please if so. if not ta anyhow.

catherine
ww

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From: "Bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Early thunderstorms
Date: Fri, 9 Feb 2001 06:52:20 +1100
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A few early thunderstorms through here at 4.20am. Wind gust about 30kmh from
the NW before it. Heavy but brief rainfall, 13.4mm so far and was still 27+
just before it came and still 24C at 6.50am
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)

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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Darwin Waterspouts.......
Date: Fri, 9 Feb 2001 06:24:30 +1000
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Any chance of putting this pics somewhere accessible?

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Paul Mossman
Sent: Thursday, 8 February 2001 19:02
To: Aussie Weather Mail List; aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Darwin Waterspouts.......


Hi all - fantastic waterspouts yesterday at Nightcliff - see pics here:

www.yahoogroups.com/ntaswa

Look in the files section - amazing pics.

Heavy storms here tonight - and looks like the start of next week could be
very interesting.....

Rgds, Paul.

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Date: Thu, 8 Feb 2001 12:22:31 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Hows the weather over your way, Leslie R Lemon?
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Lindsay Pearce wrote

> How's your winter going Leslie R Lemon? I notice its fairly warm right
now.
> Did you escape that warm tongue of air from the south?
> 
> How much snow have you had this winter, so far?

Yes, it is warm but getting much colder.  We have a very strong cold front
draped across us right now.  The temp on the north side of the city is
about 35 F while on the south side the temp is near 60 F.  This very strong
baroclinic zone is the focus of a lot of wx today, tonight, and tomorrow. 
It looks like there will be severe tstms and even tornadoes south and south
west of us (with a 120+ kt jet aloft approaching the area) and very heavy
snow north of us.  Here we may have an ice storm forecast with downed power
lines and trees.  Following that we may have heavy snow.  All this will be
associated with a deep upper-level trough and a rapidly deepening surface
and mid-tropospheric ETC (extra-tropical cyclone) moving northeast along
the front.

January was a warm month, relatively speaking.  December was the second
coldest on record.  December had much above normal snow and January, much
below.  We have only had about a foot (30 cm) of snow thus far.  That may
change soon.

Enjoy your wx if you can!

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 9 Feb 2001 12:52:08 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: NT TC Watch
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>IDDP0002
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Northern Territory Region
>Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
>
>PRIORITY
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
>Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
>at 11:00 am CST Friday 9 February 2001
>
>A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities
>between Elcho Island and the Northern Territory/Queensland Border, including
>Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.
>
>At 11 am CST a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the eastern Arafura Sea
>about 90 kilometres northeast of Cape Wessell and 200 kilometres north
>northeast
>of Nhulunbuy, near stationary.
>
>There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
>coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.
>
>Details of TROPICAL LOW at 11 am CST:
> . Centre located near...... 10.5 degrees South 137.5 degrees East
> . Location accuracy........ within 90 kilometres
> . Recent movement.......... near stationary
> . Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
> . Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
>
>People between Elcho Island and the Northern Territory/Queensland Border
>should
>listen for the next advice which will be issued at 5 pm CST.
>
>This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211.
>
>DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


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From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: STA & Intense lightning in Melb
Date: Thu, 8 Feb 2001 23:57:06 +1100
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I too was out and about.  I ventured out to the Western Highway and then S
on C207 to Werribee.  I stopped about 8km N of Werribee and watched the
lightning for over 2 hours.  YOu could see the cells way off to the SE near
WOnthaggi and also all the other cells.  I took over an hour of video
footage.  Lightning ranged from one every 10 seconds to 3-4 per second at
times.  Some nice CG's but I think the best ones were embedded in the rain
(of which i sucessfully managed to stay out of).

Macca

----- Original Message -----
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 08, 2001 11:45 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: STA & Intense lightning in Melb


> Yep, I'd been watching the anvil crawlers to the south & couldn't resist
going
> out for a closer look. I was in the thick of it from Narre Warren to
Pakenham -
> 100mm/hr+ for 20 minutes or so, flooding on the freeway *all* the way
reducing
> the safe speed from 110kmh to 40kmh, creeks are full, water running in
sheets
> across the road.  Strobe lightning for much of the time - spent some of
the
> time waiting for darkness to strike!!
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
> Liam Domanski wrote:
>
> > Hi all.
> >
> > I've just come back from Doncaster Shoppingtown
> >
> > There's some great storms around this evening, with A LOT of lightning
> > activity.  For a while there, I could sometimes see 3-4 flashes per
second.
> > This must have lasted more than 15 mins.
> >
> > The storms are moving ESE, and are currently areound the
> > Mordialloc/Frankston region, with some more further east.
> >
> > Is anyone else out and about tonight?
> >
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.134.68.3]
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Moving to Canberra
Date: Fri, 09 Feb 2001 12:13:01 +1100
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<x-flowed>
And not just for the interesting politics and exciting night life:

A.C.T. FORECAST:  For the rest of today and Saturday
Possible late showers/thunderstorm today and overnight, cloudy with showers 
and
possible storms again tomorrow. Winds should be moderate to fresh 
northwesterly
tending southeasterly overnight.

Sunday   :  Afternoon showers/storms             Min:  15    Max:  28
Monday   :  Afternoon showers/storms             Min:  15     Max:  30
Tuesday  :  Afternoon showers/storms             Min:  17    Max:  32
Trend for   Wednesday  Thursday   and   Friday   :
Afternoon showers and storms persisting until Friday
_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
Date: Fri, 09 Feb 2001 09:29:14 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NSW storms the next week
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

This message is for NSW storm people :)

Keep an eye out the next WEEK as a persistant sfc trough hangs around,
causing storms throughout the SE of the state from today onwards going
by the models, until  next wednesday! The jet is forecast to hang around
VIC and the far south of the state, but if it pushes further up a couple
of hundred km towards the cent. tablelands/sydney/illawarra, things will
get more interesting up this way.
Dew Points are back up to 19/20 across Sydney, after only being around
14/15 yesterday, which is good news. and 500 temps are going to drop
from about -5 at present to -9ish or so by Sunday. The only thing that
may stuff us up later on is cloud cover. There is also the outside
chance of something developing here today.
Glad to see you Vics got some storms! lightning 3-4 strikes a second...
i dont think i can recall ever seeing that, it must have been
spectacular!
ok i better get ready for work.. BRING IT ON !!!!!!!!

Matt Smith
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Catherine" <faerinelda at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Account of Frankston Fun : ) (longish)
Date: Fri, 9 Feb 2001 03:08:44 +1100
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To all locals who saw and those who didn't,

This is the best night I have seen for at least 1.5 years. at one point
tonight we were surrounded. I counted 4 storms, am I right when I assume
that there were a lot of little storms associated with a multicell system or
something.

I was so frustrated that I couldn't get the pictures of the storm, that I
didn't watch for about 10 mins, then Dad told me to get in the car.
We went to the bottom of Watsons/Wilsons Rd (I'm not 100% sure)  in Mt Eliza
and watched two more storms come accross the bay. Major lightning. As we
drove there though we had to detour as we couldnt see 2m in front of the car
the rain was so heavy.

From Mt Eliza we went to Olivers Hill F/ston where we sat for about 20 mins
watching them come over when big strikes hit the bay and lit the sky heaps
of CG's but more CC's I think (Dad wanted the dip when I said that lol).
Then out of nowhere this Huge wind came up at us, it was blowing the sand
off the beach below us, into our faces. (what is this called?) Dad-being a
leading authority NOT... reckons it was a gust front associated with the
leading edge of the storm...I told him to stop reading my stuff I hope I was
right...: ): ): )hehe

Then we came home for the rest of the show. I ventured outside at about
11.30 when the best happened ... lightning galore... tonns of rain (my
street had a layer of water over it about 10mm and the gutters were rushing
like a river...damn it was sooo fun tonight definitley a pickerupper
moodwise.

I hope my account hasnt bored yall just wanting to share...and I hope you
all had as much free funderstorm fun as I did...rock on mother nature lol

seeya
Catherine
WW

P.S You are all legends and I love this list : )

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Dorrell's" <keithd at lis.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:off topic
Date: Fri, 9 Feb 2001 17:05:36 +1000
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Carl,
can you tell me where aussie weather digest has gone?
was on egroups last weekend mow egroups tells me no such list.

What are the chances for a TC in the coral sea next week, any clues.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Carl Smith" <carls at ace-net.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 09, 2001 12:52 PM
Subject: aus-wx: NT TC Watch


> >IDDP0002
> >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> >Northern Territory Region
> >Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
> >
> >PRIORITY
> >
> >TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
> >
> >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
> >Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
> >at 11:00 am CST Friday 9 February 2001
> >
> >A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities
> >between Elcho Island and the Northern Territory/Queensland Border,
including
> >Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.
> >
> >At 11 am CST a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the eastern Arafura Sea
> >about 90 kilometres northeast of Cape Wessell and 200 kilometres north
> >northeast
> >of Nhulunbuy, near stationary.
> >
> >There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not
expected in
> >coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop
later.
> >
> >Details of TROPICAL LOW at 11 am CST:
> > . Centre located near...... 10.5 degrees South 137.5 degrees East
> > . Location accuracy........ within 90 kilometres
> > . Recent movement.......... near stationary
> > . Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
> > . Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
> >
> >People between Elcho Island and the Northern Territory/Queensland Border
> >should
> >listen for the next advice which will be issued at 5 pm CST.
> >
> >This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211.
> >
> >DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 09 Feb 2001 18:49:27 +1100
From: David Carroll <davidkc at nia.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.75 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1737 on Friday the 9th of February 2001

This advice affects people in the following weather districts:

Riverina, South West Slopes

Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this evening. Some of
these are expected to be severe bringing damaging winds and short
periods
of  very heavy rainfall.
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Fri, 09 Feb 2001 23:34:13 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Moving to Canberra
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Rune,

I know you will never leave your "The Spot". Fantastic views.

Weatherwise, I think tomorrow the ranges will fire with cloud cover comign 
through with the change. I haven't checked Sydney as such and the rest of 
the models but will do so tomorrow morning.

Jimmy Deguara

At 12:13 PM 9/02/01 +1100, you wrote:
>And not just for the interesting politics and exciting night life:
>
>A.C.T. FORECAST:  For the rest of today and Saturday
>Possible late showers/thunderstorm today and overnight, cloudy with 
>showers and
>possible storms again tomorrow. Winds should be moderate to fresh 
>northwesterly
>tending southeasterly overnight.
>
>Sunday   :  Afternoon showers/storms             Min:  15    Max:  28
>Monday   :  Afternoon showers/storms             Min:  15     Max:  30
>Tuesday  :  Afternoon showers/storms             Min:  17    Max:  32
>Trend for   Wednesday  Thursday   and   Friday   :
>Afternoon showers and storms persisting until Friday
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>message.
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [144.132.32.209]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx:off topic
Date: Fri, 09 Feb 2001 23:49:18 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 Feb 2001 12:49:18.0504 (UTC) FILETIME=[B756C280:01C09296]
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
I too have lost contact with the Yahoogroups list (formerly Egroups).

I searched for it but it says no such list.

Liam


>From: "Dorrell's" <keithd at lis.net.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx:off topic
>Date: Fri, 9 Feb 2001 17:05:36 +1000
>
>Carl,
>can you tell me where aussie weather digest has gone?
>was on egroups last weekend mow egroups tells me no such list.
>
>What are the chances for a TC in the coral sea next week, any clues.
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Carl Smith" <carls at ace-net.com.au>
>To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Friday, February 09, 2001 12:52 PM
>Subject: aus-wx: NT TC Watch
>
>
> > >IDDP0002
> > >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> > >Northern Territory Region
> > >Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
> > >
> > >PRIORITY
> > >
> > >TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
> > >
> > >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
> > >Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
> > >at 11:00 am CST Friday 9 February 2001
> > >
> > >A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities
> > >between Elcho Island and the Northern Territory/Queensland Border,
>including
> > >Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.
> > >
> > >At 11 am CST a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the eastern Arafura Sea
> > >about 90 kilometres northeast of Cape Wessell and 200 kilometres north
> > >northeast
> > >of Nhulunbuy, near stationary.
> > >
> > >There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not
>expected in
> > >coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop
>later.
> > >
> > >Details of TROPICAL LOW at 11 am CST:
> > > . Centre located near...... 10.5 degrees South 137.5 degrees East
> > > . Location accuracy........ within 90 kilometres
> > > . Recent movement.......... near stationary
> > > . Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
> > > . Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
> > >
> > >People between Elcho Island and the Northern Territory/Queensland 
>Border
> > >should
> > >listen for the next advice which will be issued at 5 pm CST.
> > >
> > >This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211.
> > >
> > >DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail 
>to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of 
>your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2001 15:44:09 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Warning Gulf of Carpentaria
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

Looks like there will be a cyclone in the Gulf later today.

You will find links to all warnings etc. on my website at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm.

BoM TCA#7 pasted below.

Regards,
Carl.

>IDDP0002
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Northern Territory Region
>Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
>Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
>at 2:00 pm CST [2:30 pm EST] Saturday 10 February 2001
>
>A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities
>between MILINGIMBI and MORNINGTON ISLAND [in Queensland], including NHULUNBUY
>and GROOTE EYLANDT.
>
>The CYCLONE WATCH between MILINGIMBI AND GOULBURN ISLAND has been cancelled.
>
>At 2 pm CST [2.30 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred about 90 kilometres
>northeast of NHULUNBUY, 110 kilometres southeast of CAPE WESSEL, moving
>southeast at 15 kilometers per hour. The low is expected to continue moving
>south or southeast and may develop into a tropical cyclone in the northwestern
>Gulf of Carpentaria tonight or early Sunday morning.
>
>GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the
>coast
>between MILINGIMBI and NUMBULWAR tonight or early tomorrow and may extend
>further south and east to MORNINGTON ISLAND by Sunday afternoon.
>
>HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the eastern Top End today and
>extending to the Gulf Country on Sunday.
>
>Details of TROPICAL LOW at 2 pm CST [2.30 pm EST]:
> . Centre located near....... 11.7 degrees South 137.5 degrees East
> . Location accuracy......... within 45 kilometres
> . Recent movement........... southeast at 15 km/h
> . Wind gusts near centre.... 90 kilometres per hour and intensifying
> . Central pressure.......... 991 hectoPascals
>
>REPEATING:  A CYCLONE WARNING is current between MILINGIMBI and MORNINGTON
>ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and GROOTE EYLANDT.
>
>The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST].
>
>This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211 and 1300 659 212.
>
>DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2001 18:08:27 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Warning Gulf of Carpentaria
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

and this from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2 136.7E7 IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S3 137.5E6 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE
REF A). ANIMATED SATELLITE  IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARTIALLY  EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS
SURROUNDING THE CENTER. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.  BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF  A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

The JCU infrared image at http://www.eng.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausvlast.gif shows
the convective bands and developing outflow very clearly.

Carl Smith wrote:

> Hi All.
>
> Looks like there will be a cyclone in the Gulf later today.

<snip>

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2001 18:09:44 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

JTWC has upgraded Gulf low to a cyclone. BoM will no doubt follow soon.

JTWC #1 and BoM TCA#8 pasted below.

Regards,
Carl.


>778
>WTPS31 PGTW 100900
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 001
>   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
>   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
>    ---
>   WARNING POSITION:
>   100600Z7 --- NEAR 12.7S0 137.6E7
>     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
>     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
>     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
>   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
>   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
>   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 137.6E7
>    ---
>   FORECASTS:
>   12 HRS, VALID AT:
>   101800Z0 --- 14.1S6 137.2E3
>   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
>   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
>    ---
>   24 HRS, VALID AT:
>   110600Z8 --- 15.1S7 136.2E2
>   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
>   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
>   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
>    ---
>   36 HRS, VALID AT:
>   111800Z1 --- 15.8S4 135.1E0
>   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
>   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
>    ---
>   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
>   48 HRS, VALID AT:
>   120600Z9 --- 16.1S8 133.8E5
>   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
>    ---
>REMARKS:
>100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 137.5E6.
>TC 08P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KTS OVER THE
>PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND
>INFRARED ANIMATION. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY
>ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
>BROAD SYSTEM WITH 3 SEPARATE BANDS OF CONVECTION, AND MULTIPLE
>POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
>IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
>TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INITIALLY, THEN INCREASINGLY
>WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
>SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
>UNTIL LANDFALL, THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
>LANDFALL IS FORECAST FOR 110700Z9 NEAR LIMMEN BIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
>TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS
>10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
>091551Z1 FEB 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
>091600) NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7) AND 110900Z1 (DTG
>110751Z5).//

>IDDP0002
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Northern Territory Region
>Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
>Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
>at 5:00 pm CST [5:30 pm EST] Saturday 10 February 2001
>
>A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities
>between ELCHO ISLAND and MORNINGTON ISLAND [in Queensland], including
>NHULUNBUY
>and GROOTE EYLANDT.
>
>The CYCLONE WARNING between ELCHO ISLAND and MILINGIMBI has been cancelled.
>
>At 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred about 90 kilometres  east
>of NHULUNBUY, 220 kilometres northeast of ALYANGULA, moving south southeast at
>20 kilometers per hour, but expected to turn towards the southwest during
>Sunday. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone overnight or
>early Sunday morning in the Gulf of Carpentaria east of Groote Eylandt.
>
>GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the
>coast
>between ELCHO ISLAND and NUMBULWAR tonight or early tomorrow and may extend
>further south and east to MORNINGTON ISLAND by Sunday afternoon.
>
>Destructive winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may develop on the
>coast
>between Alyangula and the Northern Territory  / Queensland border tomorrow
>afternoon.
>
>HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the eastern Top End today and
>extending to the Gulf Country on Sunday.
>
>Details of TROPICAL LOW at 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST]:
> . Centre located near....... 12.3 degrees South 137.6 degrees East
> . Location accuracy......... within 45 kilometres
> . Recent movement........... south-southeast at 20 km/h
> . Wind gusts near centre.... 90 kilometres per hour and intensifying
> . Central pressure.......... 989 hectoPascals
>
>REPEATING:  A CYCLONE WARNING is current between ELCHO ISLAND and MORNINGTON
>ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and GROOTE EYLANDT.
>
>The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 8 pm CST [8.30 pm EST].
>
>This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211 and 1300 659 212.
>
>DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


Carl Smith.
Gold Coast.
Queensland.
Australia.

email: carls at ace-net.com.au
internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/

For convenient downloadable Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps :
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
For links to current Tropical Cyclone information :
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm


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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2001 20:52:23 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hello

At 8pm and at 987hpa it will be interesting to see what category this
cyclone this will be when (and if) named. An instant Category 2 ?

Is this possible ? Should it have not been called a cyclone earlier, despite
lack of clear central organisation ?

Simon

----- Original Message -----
From: "Carl Smith" <carls at ace-net.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>;
<aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Sent: Saturday, February 10, 2001 7:09 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria


> Hi All.
>
> JTWC has upgraded Gulf low to a cyclone. BoM will no doubt follow soon.
>
> JTWC #1 and BoM TCA#8 pasted below.
>
> Regards,
> Carl.
>
>
> >778
> >WTPS31 PGTW 100900
> >1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 001
> >   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> >    ---
> >   WARNING POSITION:
> >   100600Z7 --- NEAR 12.7S0 137.6E7
> >     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
> >     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
> >     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> >   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
> >   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 137.6E7
> >    ---
> >   FORECASTS:
> >   12 HRS, VALID AT:
> >   101800Z0 --- 14.1S6 137.2E3
> >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> >   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
> >    ---
> >   24 HRS, VALID AT:
> >   110600Z8 --- 15.1S7 136.2E2
> >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
> >   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
> >   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
> >    ---
> >   36 HRS, VALID AT:
> >   111800Z1 --- 15.8S4 135.1E0
> >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> >   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
> >    ---
> >   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> >   48 HRS, VALID AT:
> >   120600Z9 --- 16.1S8 133.8E5
> >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
> >    ---
> >REMARKS:
> >100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 137.5E6.
> >TC 08P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KTS OVER THE
> >PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND
> >INFRARED ANIMATION. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY
> >ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
> >BROAD SYSTEM WITH 3 SEPARATE BANDS OF CONVECTION, AND MULTIPLE
> >POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
> >IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
> >TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INITIALLY, THEN INCREASINGLY
> >WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
> >SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
> >UNTIL LANDFALL, THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
> >LANDFALL IS FORECAST FOR 110700Z9 NEAR LIMMEN BIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
> >TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS
> >10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
> >091551Z1 FEB 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
> >091600) NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7) AND 110900Z1 (DTG
> >110751Z5).//
>
> >IDDP0002
> >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> >Northern Territory Region
> >Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
> >
> >TOP PRIORITY
> >
> >TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
> >
> >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
> >Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
> >at 5:00 pm CST [5:30 pm EST] Saturday 10 February 2001
> >
> >A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities
> >between ELCHO ISLAND and MORNINGTON ISLAND [in Queensland], including
> >NHULUNBUY
> >and GROOTE EYLANDT.
> >
> >The CYCLONE WARNING between ELCHO ISLAND and MILINGIMBI has been
cancelled.
> >
> >At 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred about 90 kilometres
east
> >of NHULUNBUY, 220 kilometres northeast of ALYANGULA, moving south
southeast at
> >20 kilometers per hour, but expected to turn towards the southwest during
> >Sunday. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone overnight
or
> >early Sunday morning in the Gulf of Carpentaria east of Groote Eylandt.
> >
> >GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on
the
> >coast
> >between ELCHO ISLAND and NUMBULWAR tonight or early tomorrow and may
extend
> >further south and east to MORNINGTON ISLAND by Sunday afternoon.
> >
> >Destructive winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may develop on
the
> >coast
> >between Alyangula and the Northern Territory  / Queensland border
tomorrow
> >afternoon.
> >
> >HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the eastern Top End today and
> >extending to the Gulf Country on Sunday.
> >
> >Details of TROPICAL LOW at 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST]:
> > . Centre located near....... 12.3 degrees South 137.6 degrees East
> > . Location accuracy......... within 45 kilometres
> > . Recent movement........... south-southeast at 20 km/h
> > . Wind gusts near centre.... 90 kilometres per hour and intensifying
> > . Central pressure.......... 989 hectoPascals
> >
> >REPEATING:  A CYCLONE WARNING is current between ELCHO ISLAND and
MORNINGTON
> >ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and GROOTE EYLANDT.
> >
> >The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 8 pm CST [8.30 pm EST].
> >
> >This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211 and 1300 659 212.
> >
> >DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>
> Carl Smith.
> Gold Coast.
> Queensland.
> Australia.
>
> email: carls at ace-net.com.au
> internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/
>
> For convenient downloadable Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps :
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
> For links to current Tropical Cyclone information :
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2001 23:10:32 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:off topic
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi.

 >Carl,
>can you tell me where aussie weather digest has gone?
>was on egroups last weekend mow egroups tells me no such list.

The former eGroups list that got swallowed by Yahoo was closed down with a
return to this list (aussie-weather at world.std.com).

>What are the chances for a TC in the coral sea next week, any clues.

My best guess is that we will see a Qld TC during the next week. Conditions
will probably be a bit more favourable in a few days as the current wave of
tropical activity evident N and NW of the continent moves into the area.

Given the lack of much Coral Sea activity so far this season I would not be
holding my breath waiting though.

Regards,
Carl.

<snip>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2001 23:37:23 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Winsome Gulf of Carpentaria
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

Well, the BoM has finally got around to naming it as a Cat 1 TC, and it
looks like the gales cover a large area as well.

Looks like it is deepening quickly, and if this warning is correct, there
is a very large area of gales to 120 km/hr with less intensity of 100 km/hr
near the centre. This possibly indicates why they have taken so long to
name it.

Regards,
Carl.

>IDDP0002
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Northern Territory Region
>Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
>Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
>at 11:00 pm CST [11:30 pm EST] Saturday 10 February 2001
>
>A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities
>between ELCHO ISLAND and MORNINGTON ISLAND [in Queensland], including
>NHULUNBUY
>and GROOTE EYLANDT.
>
>At 11 pm CST [11.30 pm EST] TROPICAL CYCLONE Winsome CATAGORY 1 was
>relocated to
>about 50 kilometres north northeast of ALYANGULA, 150 kilometres south of
>NHULUNBUY, moving south southwest at 20 kilometers per hour. The tropical
>cyclone is expected to continue to move towards the  south or southwest during
>Sunday.
>
>GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
>the coast between ELCHO ISLAND and MORNINGTON ISLAND.
>
>Destructive winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may develop on the
>coast
>between Alyangula and the NORTHERN TERRITORY / QUEENSLAND BORDER on Sunday
>afternoon.
>
>ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING on the coast of GROOTE
>EYLANDT and the mainland coast between CAPE SHIELD and the NORTHERN
>TERRITORY /
>QUEENSLAND BORDER overnight and during Sunday.
>
>HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding over the EASTERN TOP END and GULF
>COUNTRY overnight and Sunday.
>
>Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE Winsome at 11 pm CST [11.30 pm EST]:
> . Centre relocated near..... 13.5 degrees South 136.6 degrees East
> . Location accuracy......... within 45 kilometres
> . Recent movement........... south southwest at 20 km/h
> . Wind gusts near centre.... 100 kilometres per hour and intensifying
> . Intensity................. CATEGORY 1
> . Central pressure.......... 980 hectoPascals
>
>REPEATING:  A CYCLONE WARNING is current between ELCHO ISLAND and MORNINGTON
>ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and GROOTE EYLANDT.
>
>The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 2 am CST [2.30 am EST].
>
>This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211 and 1300 659 212.
>
>DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2001 21:45:34 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

HI Simon & everyone -

Great point!! THis seems to be a "political" decision of late - lets hope
they (TC's) go away and then they dont have to worry about them! The last
Low that hit Point Stuart NE of Darwin several weeks ago was less then 980mb
and had winds speeds of 60 - 70 knots near the centre (as reported by BOM
observers), had an eye , and had great structure. Yet it wasnt
classified..........

Strange. Maybe a new trend emerging .......

Paul in Darwin

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon Clarke
Sent: Saturday, 10 February 2001 7:22 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria


Hello

At 8pm and at 987hpa it will be interesting to see what category this
cyclone this will be when (and if) named. An instant Category 2 ?

Is this possible ? Should it have not been called a cyclone earlier, despite
lack of clear central organisation ?

Simon

----- Original Message -----
From: "Carl Smith" <carls at ace-net.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>;
<aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Sent: Saturday, February 10, 2001 7:09 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria


> Hi All.
>
> JTWC has upgraded Gulf low to a cyclone. BoM will no doubt follow soon.
>
> JTWC #1 and BoM TCA#8 pasted below.
>
> Regards,
> Carl.
>
>
> >778
> >WTPS31 PGTW 100900
> >1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 001
> >   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> >    ---
> >   WARNING POSITION:
> >   100600Z7 --- NEAR 12.7S0 137.6E7
> >     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
> >     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
> >     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> >   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
> >   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 137.6E7
> >    ---
> >   FORECASTS:
> >   12 HRS, VALID AT:
> >   101800Z0 --- 14.1S6 137.2E3
> >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> >   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
> >    ---
> >   24 HRS, VALID AT:
> >   110600Z8 --- 15.1S7 136.2E2
> >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
> >   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
> >   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
> >    ---
> >   36 HRS, VALID AT:
> >   111800Z1 --- 15.8S4 135.1E0
> >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> >   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
> >    ---
> >   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> >   48 HRS, VALID AT:
> >   120600Z9 --- 16.1S8 133.8E5
> >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
> >    ---
> >REMARKS:
> >100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 137.5E6.
> >TC 08P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KTS OVER THE
> >PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND
> >INFRARED ANIMATION. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY
> >ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
> >BROAD SYSTEM WITH 3 SEPARATE BANDS OF CONVECTION, AND MULTIPLE
> >POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
> >IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
> >TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INITIALLY, THEN INCREASINGLY
> >WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
> >SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
> >UNTIL LANDFALL, THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
> >LANDFALL IS FORECAST FOR 110700Z9 NEAR LIMMEN BIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
> >TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS
> >10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
> >091551Z1 FEB 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
> >091600) NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7) AND 110900Z1 (DTG
> >110751Z5).//
>
> >IDDP0002
> >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> >Northern Territory Region
> >Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
> >
> >TOP PRIORITY
> >
> >TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
> >
> >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
> >Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
> >at 5:00 pm CST [5:30 pm EST] Saturday 10 February 2001
> >
> >A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities
> >between ELCHO ISLAND and MORNINGTON ISLAND [in Queensland], including
> >NHULUNBUY
> >and GROOTE EYLANDT.
> >
> >The CYCLONE WARNING between ELCHO ISLAND and MILINGIMBI has been
cancelled.
> >
> >At 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred about 90 kilometres
east
> >of NHULUNBUY, 220 kilometres northeast of ALYANGULA, moving south
southeast at
> >20 kilometers per hour, but expected to turn towards the southwest during
> >Sunday. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone overnight
or
> >early Sunday morning in the Gulf of Carpentaria east of Groote Eylandt.
> >
> >GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on
the
> >coast
> >between ELCHO ISLAND and NUMBULWAR tonight or early tomorrow and may
extend
> >further south and east to MORNINGTON ISLAND by Sunday afternoon.
> >
> >Destructive winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may develop on
the
> >coast
> >between Alyangula and the Northern Territory  / Queensland border
tomorrow
> >afternoon.
> >
> >HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the eastern Top End today and
> >extending to the Gulf Country on Sunday.
> >
> >Details of TROPICAL LOW at 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST]:
> > . Centre located near....... 12.3 degrees South 137.6 degrees East
> > . Location accuracy......... within 45 kilometres
> > . Recent movement........... south-southeast at 20 km/h
> > . Wind gusts near centre.... 90 kilometres per hour and intensifying
> > . Central pressure.......... 989 hectoPascals
> >
> >REPEATING:  A CYCLONE WARNING is current between ELCHO ISLAND and
MORNINGTON
> >ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and GROOTE EYLANDT.
> >
> >The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 8 pm CST [8.30 pm EST].
> >
> >This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211 and 1300 659 212.
> >
> >DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>
> Carl Smith.
> Gold Coast.
> Queensland.
> Australia.
>
> email: carls at ace-net.com.au
> internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/
>
> For convenient downloadable Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps :
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
> For links to current Tropical Cyclone information :
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 09:20:14 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Winsome 08P now overland
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

TC Winsome is now overland. It has strong winds and rain extending a long
way to the east.

Latest BoM and JTWC warnings pasted below.

Regards,
Carl.

>IDDP0002
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Northern Territory Region
>Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
>Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
>at 8:00 am CST [8:30 am EST] Sunday 11 February 2001
>
>A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between CAPE
>SHIELD and MORNINGTON ISLAND [in Queensland], including GROOTE EYLANDT. The
>CYCLONE WARNING between NHULUNBUY and CAPE SHIELD has been cancelled.
>
>At 8 am CST [8.30 am EST] TROPICAL CYCLONE Winsome, CATEGORY 1, was
>located over
>land near the coast 10 kilometres west of NUMBULWAR, 95 kilometres west
>southwest of ALYANGULA, moving southwest at 20 kilometres per hour. The
>tropical
>cyclone is expected to move further inland over the ROPER-MCARTHUR DISTRICT
>today.
>
>GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
>the coast between CAPE SHIELD and MORNINGTON ISLAND, possibly extending up to
>100 kilometres inland about the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast.
>
>ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES combined with large waves could cause SERIOUS
>FLOODING on
>the coast of GROOTE EYLANDT and on the mainland coast between CAPE SHIELD and
>MORNINGTON ISLAND.
>
>HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding over the EASTERN TOP END and
>ROPER-MCARTHUR DISTRICT today and tomorrow.
>
>Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE Winsome at 8am CST [8.30 am EST]:
> . Centre located near....... 14.3 degrees South 135.6 degrees East
> . Location accuracy......... within 60 kilometres
> . Recent movement........... southwest at 20 km/h
> . Wind gusts near centre.... 100 kilometres per hour
> . Intensity................. CATEGORY 1
> . Central pressure.......... 980 hectoPascals
>
>REPEATING:  A CYCLONE WARNING is current between CAPE SHIELD and MORNINGTON
>ISLAND, including GROOTE EYLANDT.
>
>The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 11 am CST [11.30 am EST].
>
>This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211 and 1300 659 212.
>
>DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

>WTPS31 PGTW 102100
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 002
>   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
>   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
>    ---
>   WARNING POSITION:
>   101800Z0 --- NEAR 14.3S8 136.5E5
>     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
>     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
>     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
>   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
>   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
>   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 136.5E5
>    ---
>   FORECASTS:
>   12 HRS, VALID AT:
>   110600Z8 --- 14.7S2 135.5E4
>   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
>   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
>   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
>    ---
>   24 HRS, VALID AT:
>   111800Z1 --- 15.2S8 134.6E4
>   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
>   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
>   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
>    ---
>   36 HRS, VALID AT:
>   120600Z9 --- 15.7S3 133.7E4
>   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
>   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
>   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
>    ---
>   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
>   48 HRS, VALID AT:
>   121800Z2 --- 15.9S5 132.6E2
>   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
>   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
>    ---
>REMARKS:
>102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 136.2E2.
>TC 08P HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 08 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
>WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION.
>WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KTS.
>ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD
>BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
>THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
>WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
>UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
>THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL, THEN BEGIN
>WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. LANDFALL IS FORECAST FOR
>110600Z8 NEAR LIMMEN BIGHT IN THE NORTHERN TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA.
>MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 10 FEET.
>NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5) AND 112100Z5 (DTG
>111951Z8).//


Carl Smith.
Gold Coast.
Queensland.
Australia.

email: carls at ace-net.com.au
internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/

For convenient downloadable Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps :
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
For links to current Tropical Cyclone information :
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm


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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 14:17:29 +1100 (AEDT)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Paul,

There has been some questioning of the BoM's services and policy here of
late and some constructive criticism, which is a good thing. However I
have to say that in this case your inferences (and facts) are very
misguided and in no way concerned with realities at all.

Firstly, it is rediculous to suggest that the BoM ignores TCs and hopes
they go away. TCs are the bureau's highest priority. The Brisbane TCWC has
been manned 24 hours for the past 2 days, even though the system was only
expected to have a minor impact on Queensland. A lot of hard work has gone
into this system (like every other TC). You seem to have the impression
that we just sort of sit around and put the odd warning out without
bothering too much about it. This is definitely not the case!! This has
been a rather unusual system - the max winds have been well removed from
the centre through most of its lifetime, it was only as it approached
landfall that the central convection consolidated. The centre passed close
to Gove yesterday, which observed a minimum pressure of 990.4 hPa, and yet
nothing above 16 knots was recorded (with a maximum gust of 31 knots). A
named TC requires gales (>34 knots 10 min sustained) in all 4 quadrants. 
This system did not, and resembled an intense monsoon depression rather
than a TC, even though it had a rather low central pressure. The intensity
of a TC is based on wind speed NOT on central pressure (the relationship
between the two is nothing like as straight forward as people believe). In
any case, it was well handled by the models, whether it had a name or not.

Secondly, the other low you mention which effected the top end on the 8th
and 9th of January never approached anything like the intensity you claim. 
It never went below 1000 hPa, and sustained winds never reached (or even
approached) gale force. Darwin was recording 10 knots at gradient level
when the system was about 100 km to the east. I'm not sure where you got
the 60 to 70 knots from, but these are almost certainly false - maybe they
are gust speeds recorded in thunderstorms. It certainly never had an eye,
and did not have an organised structure.

I'm all for constructive critisism, but lets stick at least somewhere near
the facts eh....

Jonty. 

____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au

Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane Regional Office
295 Ann Street
Brisbane  Qld   4000
Australia

Ph +61 7 3239 8700

____________________________________________________________________

On Sat, 10 Feb 2001, Paul Mossman wrote:

> HI Simon & everyone -
> 
> Great point!! THis seems to be a "political" decision of late - lets hope
> they (TC's) go away and then they dont have to worry about them! The last
> Low that hit Point Stuart NE of Darwin several weeks ago was less then 980mb
> and had winds speeds of 60 - 70 knots near the centre (as reported by BOM
> observers), had an eye , and had great structure. Yet it wasnt
> classified..........
> 
> Strange. Maybe a new trend emerging .......
> 
> Paul in Darwin
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon Clarke
> Sent: Saturday, 10 February 2001 7:22 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
> 
> 
> Hello
> 
> At 8pm and at 987hpa it will be interesting to see what category this
> cyclone this will be when (and if) named. An instant Category 2 ?
> 
> Is this possible ? Should it have not been called a cyclone earlier, despite
> lack of clear central organisation ?
> 
> Simon
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Carl Smith" <carls at ace-net.com.au>
> To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>;
> <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
> Sent: Saturday, February 10, 2001 7:09 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
> 
> 
> > Hi All.
> >
> > JTWC has upgraded Gulf low to a cyclone. BoM will no doubt follow soon.
> >
> > JTWC #1 and BoM TCA#8 pasted below.
> >
> > Regards,
> > Carl.
> >
> >
> > >778
> > >WTPS31 PGTW 100900
> > >1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 001
> > >   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> > >    ---
> > >   WARNING POSITION:
> > >   100600Z7 --- NEAR 12.7S0 137.6E7
> > >     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
> > >     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
> > >     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> > >   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
> > >   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 137.6E7
> > >    ---
> > >   FORECASTS:
> > >   12 HRS, VALID AT:
> > >   101800Z0 --- 14.1S6 137.2E3
> > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> > >   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
> > >    ---
> > >   24 HRS, VALID AT:
> > >   110600Z8 --- 15.1S7 136.2E2
> > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
> > >   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
> > >   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
> > >    ---
> > >   36 HRS, VALID AT:
> > >   111800Z1 --- 15.8S4 135.1E0
> > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> > >   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
> > >    ---
> > >   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> > >   48 HRS, VALID AT:
> > >   120600Z9 --- 16.1S8 133.8E5
> > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
> > >    ---
> > >REMARKS:
> > >100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 137.5E6.
> > >TC 08P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KTS OVER THE
> > >PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND
> > >INFRARED ANIMATION. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY
> > >ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
> > >BROAD SYSTEM WITH 3 SEPARATE BANDS OF CONVECTION, AND MULTIPLE
> > >POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
> > >IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
> > >TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INITIALLY, THEN INCREASINGLY
> > >WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
> > >SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
> > >UNTIL LANDFALL, THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
> > >LANDFALL IS FORECAST FOR 110700Z9 NEAR LIMMEN BIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
> > >TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS
> > >10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
> > >091551Z1 FEB 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
> > >091600) NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7) AND 110900Z1 (DTG
> > >110751Z5).//
> >
> > >IDDP0002
> > >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> > >Northern Territory Region
> > >Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
> > >
> > >TOP PRIORITY
> > >
> > >TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
> > >
> > >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
> > >Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
> > >at 5:00 pm CST [5:30 pm EST] Saturday 10 February 2001
> > >
> > >A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities
> > >between ELCHO ISLAND and MORNINGTON ISLAND [in Queensland], including
> > >NHULUNBUY
> > >and GROOTE EYLANDT.
> > >
> > >The CYCLONE WARNING between ELCHO ISLAND and MILINGIMBI has been
> cancelled.
> > >
> > >At 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred about 90 kilometres
> east
> > >of NHULUNBUY, 220 kilometres northeast of ALYANGULA, moving south
> southeast at
> > >20 kilometers per hour, but expected to turn towards the southwest during
> > >Sunday. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone overnight
> or
> > >early Sunday morning in the Gulf of Carpentaria east of Groote Eylandt.
> > >
> > >GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on
> the
> > >coast
> > >between ELCHO ISLAND and NUMBULWAR tonight or early tomorrow and may
> extend
> > >further south and east to MORNINGTON ISLAND by Sunday afternoon.
> > >
> > >Destructive winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may develop on
> the
> > >coast
> > >between Alyangula and the Northern Territory  / Queensland border
> tomorrow
> > >afternoon.
> > >
> > >HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the eastern Top End today and
> > >extending to the Gulf Country on Sunday.
> > >
> > >Details of TROPICAL LOW at 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST]:
> > > . Centre located near....... 12.3 degrees South 137.6 degrees East
> > > . Location accuracy......... within 45 kilometres
> > > . Recent movement........... south-southeast at 20 km/h
> > > . Wind gusts near centre.... 90 kilometres per hour and intensifying
> > > . Central pressure.......... 989 hectoPascals
> > >
> > >REPEATING:  A CYCLONE WARNING is current between ELCHO ISLAND and
> MORNINGTON
> > >ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and GROOTE EYLANDT.
> > >
> > >The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 8 pm CST [8.30 pm EST].
> > >
> > >This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211 and 1300 659 212.
> > >
> > >DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
> >
> >
> > Carl Smith.
> > Gold Coast.
> > Queensland.
> > Australia.
> >
> > email: carls at ace-net.com.au
> > internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/
> >
> > For convenient downloadable Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps :
> > http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
> > For links to current Tropical Cyclone information :
> > http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 14:02:04 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
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Hi Jonty, 

I agree with your remarks here.  I think the issue should not be so much
focused on whether it is a TC or not, but rather whether the BoM should
consider giving alternative warning systems for those systems that have
the potential to do some damage, but aren't quite in the TC category. 
In SE QLD when we have heavy rain and gales, they often issue a severe
weather warning (as you're no doubt aware!)  I think this works well,
and I think it'd be good to use for some of the monsoonal depressions
that really don't quite fall into the TC category but perhaps could do
some isolated damage.

AC

Jonty Hall wrote:
> 
> Paul,
> 
> There has been some questioning of the BoM's services and policy here of
> late and some constructive criticism, which is a good thing. However I
> have to say that in this case your inferences (and facts) are very
> misguided and in no way concerned with realities at all.
> 
> Firstly, it is rediculous to suggest that the BoM ignores TCs and hopes
> they go away. TCs are the bureau's highest priority. The Brisbane TCWC has
> been manned 24 hours for the past 2 days, even though the system was only
> expected to have a minor impact on Queensland. A lot of hard work has gone
> into this system (like every other TC). You seem to have the impression
> that we just sort of sit around and put the odd warning out without
> bothering too much about it. This is definitely not the case!! This has
> been a rather unusual system - the max winds have been well removed from
> the centre through most of its lifetime, it was only as it approached
> landfall that the central convection consolidated. The centre passed close
> to Gove yesterday, which observed a minimum pressure of 990.4 hPa, and yet
> nothing above 16 knots was recorded (with a maximum gust of 31 knots). A
> named TC requires gales (>34 knots 10 min sustained) in all 4 quadrants.
> This system did not, and resembled an intense monsoon depression rather
> than a TC, even though it had a rather low central pressure. The intensity
> of a TC is based on wind speed NOT on central pressure (the relationship
> between the two is nothing like as straight forward as people believe). In
> any case, it was well handled by the models, whether it had a name or not.
> 
> Secondly, the other low you mention which effected the top end on the 8th
> and 9th of January never approached anything like the intensity you claim.
> It never went below 1000 hPa, and sustained winds never reached (or even
> approached) gale force. Darwin was recording 10 knots at gradient level
> when the system was about 100 km to the east. I'm not sure where you got
> the 60 to 70 knots from, but these are almost certainly false - maybe they
> are gust speeds recorded in thunderstorms. It certainly never had an eye,
> and did not have an organised structure.
> 
> I'm all for constructive critisism, but lets stick at least somewhere near
> the facts eh....
> 
> Jonty.

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: mjd at iinet.net.au
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 12:29:19 +0800
X-Authentication-Warning: localhost.localdomain: web set sender to mjd at iinet.net.au using -f
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Storms in Darwin
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Hi all,

I am in Darwin atm, got some nice storm's on the way up here over the 
great sandy desert, but that was nothing compared to the storm that was to 
great us on our arrival in to Darwin on Flight AN 300. An awesome rain 
foot/gust front that was right on the Airport as we were about to land. 
Just in front of us was a Quantas 747 from Malayisa some were it landed ok 
even tho the pilot's wouldn't have been able to see anything. We were 
about 100 M of landing on the runway when the polit's was force to abbort 
the landing and take off again for a second bit of the cherry. The 747 
that had just landed left debrie on the runway and with visibility so por 
the air traffic controler's ordered him to comround for a second go.
   Will taxing to the terminal the amount of water streaming of the run 
way in the drainage system was floowin about an inch deep in to the 
drains. I have video footage of the Storms in the Great sandy Desert and 
of the strom we had to land in when we got to darwin :):) along with SLR 
still aswell.
   Got the timing right to to get here, get here and we have a TC 
nearby :):), should be intresting latter on tonight.  Earlier the morning 
a feeder band in to the TC moved over Darwin. Got heavy rain from it and 
some isolated embedded storms developed in it aswell :):):).

More info latter on as the storms roll on in :):):).

MJ.
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 17:39:24 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Afternoon all,

From what I've read I've noticed that in the USA, hurricanes seem to have 3
developmental categories:
a) tropical disturbance
b) tropical storm and
c) hurricane.

Is there any such classification in the Australian region - ie: tropical storm
as distinct from tropical depression, tropical cyclone???

In the USA a tropical storm is the sub level of a hurricane and is used as an
intermediate description.  There are quite a number of tropical disturbances
attaining this status & they are quite capable of producing dangerous seas &
some damage on land.  As Jonty suggested, they do lack full hurricane status and
the strongest winds do tend to favour certain sectors rather than the whole
circumference.

In respect to TC Winsome, it always was close to the coast & always appeared
marginal in its development - it wasn't until yesterday afternoon that
convective bands got organised and the organised outflow became apparent.
However, it would have reached 'tropical storm' status yesterday prior to being
named a TC (under the US classification).

Is this something that could be looked at in a developmental sense.

On another note, it would be good to see a standardisation of terms for TCs ie:
why don't we all use the word hurricane worldwide? It's interesting to note that
these systems are called TC on the eastern side of Africa but hurricanes on the
western side.

Jane

Anthony Cornelius wrote:

> Hi Jonty,
>
> I agree with your remarks here.  I think the issue should not be so much
> focused on whether it is a TC or not, but rather whether the BoM should
> consider giving alternative warning systems for those systems that have
> the potential to do some damage, but aren't quite in the TC category.
> In SE QLD when we have heavy rain and gales, they often issue a severe
> weather warning (as you're no doubt aware!)  I think this works well,
> and I think it'd be good to use for some of the monsoonal depressions
> that really don't quite fall into the TC category but perhaps could do
> some isolated damage.
>
> AC

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 15:36:11 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

I must agree with Jonty on this one - I think the BoM did quite a credible
job with this system, which was undoubtably a little difficult to judge due
to it's unusual wind field.

Satpics yesterday afternoon showed a large fairly clear area surrounded by
a ring of cloud - obviously not your classic TC structure, and it was
clearly debatable whether this was a TC or not until it tightened up
somewhat later on, and as Jonty says, the Australian definition requires
winds >34 knots 10 min sustained in all quadrants, wheras JTWC uses a 1
minute average, thus the reason JTWC often defines Australian systems as
TC's before the BoM does (although they also fail to notice some until much
later).

I have uploaded a Satpic at:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Images/mdep1006.jpg sent to me by an
overseas enthusiast to illustrate the unusual structure - he called it a
monsoon depression. I will leave it there for a few days so that if any of
you wish to see it you can.

I have little doubt it would have quickly become a quite destructive
cyclone if it had continued S or SE over water, as this would have allowed
the structure to tighten and go into very fast deepening.

Regards,
Carl.

>Paul,
>
>There has been some questioning of the BoM's services and policy here of
>late and some constructive criticism, which is a good thing. However I
>have to say that in this case your inferences (and facts) are very
>misguided and in no way concerned with realities at all.
>
>Firstly, it is rediculous to suggest that the BoM ignores TCs and hopes
>they go away. TCs are the bureau's highest priority. The Brisbane TCWC has
>been manned 24 hours for the past 2 days, even though the system was only
>expected to have a minor impact on Queensland. A lot of hard work has gone
>into this system (like every other TC). You seem to have the impression
>that we just sort of sit around and put the odd warning out without
>bothering too much about it. This is definitely not the case!! This has
>been a rather unusual system - the max winds have been well removed from
>the centre through most of its lifetime, it was only as it approached
>landfall that the central convection consolidated. The centre passed close
>to Gove yesterday, which observed a minimum pressure of 990.4 hPa, and yet
>nothing above 16 knots was recorded (with a maximum gust of 31 knots). A
>named TC requires gales (>34 knots 10 min sustained) in all 4 quadrants.
>This system did not, and resembled an intense monsoon depression rather
>than a TC, even though it had a rather low central pressure. The intensity
>of a TC is based on wind speed NOT on central pressure (the relationship
>between the two is nothing like as straight forward as people believe). In
>any case, it was well handled by the models, whether it had a name or not.
>
>Secondly, the other low you mention which effected the top end on the 8th
>and 9th of January never approached anything like the intensity you claim.
>It never went below 1000 hPa, and sustained winds never reached (or even
>approached) gale force. Darwin was recording 10 knots at gradient level
>when the system was about 100 km to the east. I'm not sure where you got
>the 60 to 70 knots from, but these are almost certainly false - maybe they
>are gust speeds recorded in thunderstorms. It certainly never had an eye,
>and did not have an organised structure.
>
>I'm all for constructive critisism, but lets stick at least somewhere near
>the facts eh....
>
>Jonty.
>
>____________________________________________________________________
>
>Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
>
>Bureau of Meteorology
>Brisbane Regional Office
>295 Ann Street
>Brisbane  Qld   4000
>Australia
>
>Ph +61 7 3239 8700
>
>____________________________________________________________________
>
>On Sat, 10 Feb 2001, Paul Mossman wrote:
>
>> HI Simon & everyone -
>>
>> Great point!! THis seems to be a "political" decision of late - lets hope
>> they (TC's) go away and then they dont have to worry about them! The last
>> Low that hit Point Stuart NE of Darwin several weeks ago was less then 980mb
>> and had winds speeds of 60 - 70 knots near the centre (as reported by BOM
>> observers), had an eye , and had great structure. Yet it wasnt
>> classified..........
>>
>> Strange. Maybe a new trend emerging .......
>>
>> Paul in Darwin
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon Clarke
>> Sent: Saturday, 10 February 2001 7:22 PM
>> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
>>
>>
>> Hello
>>
>> At 8pm and at 987hpa it will be interesting to see what category this
>> cyclone this will be when (and if) named. An instant Category 2 ?
>>
>> Is this possible ? Should it have not been called a cyclone earlier, despite
>> lack of clear central organisation ?
>>
>> Simon
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Carl Smith" <carls at ace-net.com.au>
>> To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>;
>> <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
>> Sent: Saturday, February 10, 2001 7:09 PM
>> Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
>>
>>
>> > Hi All.
>> >
>> > JTWC has upgraded Gulf low to a cyclone. BoM will no doubt follow soon.
>> >
>> > JTWC #1 and BoM TCA#8 pasted below.
>> >
>> > Regards,
>> > Carl.
>> >
>> >
>> > >778
>> > >WTPS31 PGTW 100900
>> > >1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 001
>> > >   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
>> > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
>> > >    ---
>> > >   WARNING POSITION:
>> > >   100600Z7 --- NEAR 12.7S0 137.6E7
>> > >     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
>> > >     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
>> > >     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
>> > >   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
>> > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
>> > >   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 137.6E7
>> > >    ---
>> > >   FORECASTS:
>> > >   12 HRS, VALID AT:
>> > >   101800Z0 --- 14.1S6 137.2E3
>> > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
>> > >   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
>> > >    ---
>> > >   24 HRS, VALID AT:
>> > >   110600Z8 --- 15.1S7 136.2E2
>> > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
>> > >   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
>> > >   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
>> > >    ---
>> > >   36 HRS, VALID AT:
>> > >   111800Z1 --- 15.8S4 135.1E0
>> > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
>> > >   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
>> > >    ---
>> > >   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
>> > >   48 HRS, VALID AT:
>> > >   120600Z9 --- 16.1S8 133.8E5
>> > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
>> > >    ---
>> > >REMARKS:
>> > >100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 137.5E6.
>> > >TC 08P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KTS OVER THE
>> > >PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND
>> > >INFRARED ANIMATION. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY
>> > >ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
>> > >BROAD SYSTEM WITH 3 SEPARATE BANDS OF CONVECTION, AND MULTIPLE
>> > >POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
>> > >IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
>> > >TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INITIALLY, THEN INCREASINGLY
>> > >WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
>> > >SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
>> > >UNTIL LANDFALL, THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
>> > >LANDFALL IS FORECAST FOR 110700Z9 NEAR LIMMEN BIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
>> > >TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS
>> > >10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
>> > >091551Z1 FEB 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
>> > >091600) NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7) AND 110900Z1 (DTG
>> > >110751Z5).//
>> >
>> > >IDDP0002
>> > >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>> > >Northern Territory Region
>> > >Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
>> > >
>> > >TOP PRIORITY
>> > >
>> > >TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>> > >
>> > >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
>> > >Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
>> > >at 5:00 pm CST [5:30 pm EST] Saturday 10 February 2001
>> > >
>> > >A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities
>> > >between ELCHO ISLAND and MORNINGTON ISLAND [in Queensland], including
>> > >NHULUNBUY
>> > >and GROOTE EYLANDT.
>> > >
>> > >The CYCLONE WARNING between ELCHO ISLAND and MILINGIMBI has been
>> cancelled.
>> > >
>> > >At 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred about 90 kilometres
>> east
>> > >of NHULUNBUY, 220 kilometres northeast of ALYANGULA, moving south
>> southeast at
>> > >20 kilometers per hour, but expected to turn towards the southwest during
>> > >Sunday. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone overnight
>> or
>> > >early Sunday morning in the Gulf of Carpentaria east of Groote Eylandt.
>> > >
>> > >GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on
>> the
>> > >coast
>> > >between ELCHO ISLAND and NUMBULWAR tonight or early tomorrow and may
>> extend
>> > >further south and east to MORNINGTON ISLAND by Sunday afternoon.
>> > >
>> > >Destructive winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may develop on
>> the
>> > >coast
>> > >between Alyangula and the Northern Territory  / Queensland border
>> tomorrow
>> > >afternoon.
>> > >
>> > >HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the eastern Top End today and
>> > >extending to the Gulf Country on Sunday.
>> > >
>> > >Details of TROPICAL LOW at 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST]:
>> > > . Centre located near....... 12.3 degrees South 137.6 degrees East
>> > > . Location accuracy......... within 45 kilometres
>> > > . Recent movement........... south-southeast at 20 km/h
>> > > . Wind gusts near centre.... 90 kilometres per hour and intensifying
>> > > . Central pressure.......... 989 hectoPascals
>> > >
>> > >REPEATING:  A CYCLONE WARNING is current between ELCHO ISLAND and
>> MORNINGTON
>> > >ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and GROOTE EYLANDT.
>> > >
>> > >The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 8 pm CST [8.30 pm EST].
>> > >
>> > >This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211 and 1300 659 212.
>> > >
>> > >DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>> >
>> >
>> > Carl Smith.
>> > Gold Coast.
>> > Queensland.
>> > Australia.
>> >
>> > email: carls at ace-net.com.au
>> > internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/
>> >
>> > For convenient downloadable Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps :
>> > http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
>> > For links to current Tropical Cyclone information :
>> > http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
>> >
>> >
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>> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>
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>>
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>>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 16:36:51 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Jonty

Thanks for your reply which was a follow on from my very original
question/comment.

I certainly have no theories about conspiracies/cover ups etc....  at BoM. I
know that TC formation, development and movement in the Gulf of Carpentaria
is perhaps one of the most difficult to predit globally. I think BoM did a
fantastic job here, proven in this case by predicting a westward shift in
motion.

It was obvious that this low (Winsome) would be unusual. No central core
until a late consolidation overnight. My original comment was intended to
suggest that this monsoonal low could consolidate very rapidly, particularly
if had continued to move into the central gulf (possibly jumping straight to
a category 2). Yet as you correctly point out - monsoonal lows tend to
behave in a manner dissimilar to the more traditional tropical low to
tropical cyclone transition, often being elongated systems with multiple
centres and displaced bands of stronger winds.

I recall TC Tina (forgive me if I am wrong on this one) off WA about ten
years ago that was down to 976 hpa prior to being a named system with a full
quadrant of gales. I think TC Jason spent a part of its rather long life as
a monsoonal low (existing as a broad area of monsoonal gales) while
retaining a name.

Perhaps BoM could refer to these types of systems as monsoonal lows rather
than tropical lows or do you think this would just confuse the general
public ?

This particular storm has fuelled my interest in monsoonal low pressure
areas. Can anyone give some other examples of monsoon low to tropical
cyclone transitions (were they rapid events ?). Also are they fairly unique
to Australian waters ?


Thanks
Simon


----- Original Message -----
From: "Jonty Hall" <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, February 11, 2001 2:17 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria


> Paul,
>
> There has been some questioning of the BoM's services and policy here of
> late and some constructive criticism, which is a good thing. However I
> have to say that in this case your inferences (and facts) are very
> misguided and in no way concerned with realities at all.
>
> Firstly, it is rediculous to suggest that the BoM ignores TCs and hopes
> they go away. TCs are the bureau's highest priority. The Brisbane TCWC has
> been manned 24 hours for the past 2 days, even though the system was only
> expected to have a minor impact on Queensland. A lot of hard work has gone
> into this system (like every other TC). You seem to have the impression
> that we just sort of sit around and put the odd warning out without
> bothering too much about it. This is definitely not the case!! This has
> been a rather unusual system - the max winds have been well removed from
> the centre through most of its lifetime, it was only as it approached
> landfall that the central convection consolidated. The centre passed close
> to Gove yesterday, which observed a minimum pressure of 990.4 hPa, and yet
> nothing above 16 knots was recorded (with a maximum gust of 31 knots). A
> named TC requires gales (>34 knots 10 min sustained) in all 4 quadrants.
> This system did not, and resembled an intense monsoon depression rather
> than a TC, even though it had a rather low central pressure. The intensity
> of a TC is based on wind speed NOT on central pressure (the relationship
> between the two is nothing like as straight forward as people believe). In
> any case, it was well handled by the models, whether it had a name or not.
>
> Secondly, the other low you mention which effected the top end on the 8th
> and 9th of January never approached anything like the intensity you claim.
> It never went below 1000 hPa, and sustained winds never reached (or even
> approached) gale force. Darwin was recording 10 knots at gradient level
> when the system was about 100 km to the east. I'm not sure where you got
> the 60 to 70 knots from, but these are almost certainly false - maybe they
> are gust speeds recorded in thunderstorms. It certainly never had an eye,
> and did not have an organised structure.
>
> I'm all for constructive critisism, but lets stick at least somewhere near
> the facts eh....
>
> Jonty.
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
>
> Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
>
> Bureau of Meteorology
> Brisbane Regional Office
> 295 Ann Street
> Brisbane  Qld   4000
> Australia
>
> Ph +61 7 3239 8700
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
>
> On Sat, 10 Feb 2001, Paul Mossman wrote:
>
> > HI Simon & everyone -
> >
> > Great point!! THis seems to be a "political" decision of late - lets
hope
> > they (TC's) go away and then they dont have to worry about them! The
last
> > Low that hit Point Stuart NE of Darwin several weeks ago was less then
980mb
> > and had winds speeds of 60 - 70 knots near the centre (as reported by
BOM
> > observers), had an eye , and had great structure. Yet it wasnt
> > classified..........
> >
> > Strange. Maybe a new trend emerging .......
> >
> > Paul in Darwin
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon Clarke
> > Sent: Saturday, 10 February 2001 7:22 PM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
> >
> >
> > Hello
> >
> > At 8pm and at 987hpa it will be interesting to see what category this
> > cyclone this will be when (and if) named. An instant Category 2 ?
> >
> > Is this possible ? Should it have not been called a cyclone earlier,
despite
> > lack of clear central organisation ?
> >
> > Simon
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Carl Smith" <carls at ace-net.com.au>
> > To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>;
> > <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
> > Sent: Saturday, February 10, 2001 7:09 PM
> > Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
> >
> >
> > > Hi All.
> > >
> > > JTWC has upgraded Gulf low to a cyclone. BoM will no doubt follow
soon.
> > >
> > > JTWC #1 and BoM TCA#8 pasted below.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > > Carl.
> > >
> > >
> > > >778
> > > >WTPS31 PGTW 100900
> > > >1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 001
> > > >   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> > > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> > > >    ---
> > > >   WARNING POSITION:
> > > >   100600Z7 --- NEAR 12.7S0 137.6E7
> > > >     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
> > > >     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
> > > >     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> > > >   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> > > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
> > > >   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 137.6E7
> > > >    ---
> > > >   FORECASTS:
> > > >   12 HRS, VALID AT:
> > > >   101800Z0 --- 14.1S6 137.2E3
> > > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> > > >   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
> > > >    ---
> > > >   24 HRS, VALID AT:
> > > >   110600Z8 --- 15.1S7 136.2E2
> > > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
> > > >   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
> > > >   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
> > > >    ---
> > > >   36 HRS, VALID AT:
> > > >   111800Z1 --- 15.8S4 135.1E0
> > > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> > > >   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
> > > >    ---
> > > >   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> > > >   48 HRS, VALID AT:
> > > >   120600Z9 --- 16.1S8 133.8E5
> > > >   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
> > > >    ---
> > > >REMARKS:
> > > >100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 137.5E6.
> > > >TC 08P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KTS OVER THE
> > > >PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND
> > > >INFRARED ANIMATION. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY
> > > >ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
> > > >BROAD SYSTEM WITH 3 SEPARATE BANDS OF CONVECTION, AND MULTIPLE
> > > >POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
> > > >IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
> > > >TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INITIALLY, THEN INCREASINGLY
> > > >WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
> > > >SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
> > > >UNTIL LANDFALL, THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
> > > >LANDFALL IS FORECAST FOR 110700Z9 NEAR LIMMEN BIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
> > > >TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS
> > > >10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
> > > >091551Z1 FEB 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
> > > >091600) NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7) AND 110900Z1 (DTG
> > > >110751Z5).//
> > >
> > > >IDDP0002
> > > >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> > > >Northern Territory Region
> > > >Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
> > > >
> > > >TOP PRIORITY
> > > >
> > > >TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
> > > >
> > > >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
> > > >Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
> > > >at 5:00 pm CST [5:30 pm EST] Saturday 10 February 2001
> > > >
> > > >A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities
> > > >between ELCHO ISLAND and MORNINGTON ISLAND [in Queensland], including
> > > >NHULUNBUY
> > > >and GROOTE EYLANDT.
> > > >
> > > >The CYCLONE WARNING between ELCHO ISLAND and MILINGIMBI has been
> > cancelled.
> > > >
> > > >At 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred about 90
kilometres
> > east
> > > >of NHULUNBUY, 220 kilometres northeast of ALYANGULA, moving south
> > southeast at
> > > >20 kilometers per hour, but expected to turn towards the southwest
during
> > > >Sunday. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone
overnight
> > or
> > > >early Sunday morning in the Gulf of Carpentaria east of Groote
Eylandt.
> > > >
> > > >GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop
on
> > the
> > > >coast
> > > >between ELCHO ISLAND and NUMBULWAR tonight or early tomorrow and may
> > extend
> > > >further south and east to MORNINGTON ISLAND by Sunday afternoon.
> > > >
> > > >Destructive winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may develop
on
> > the
> > > >coast
> > > >between Alyangula and the Northern Territory  / Queensland border
> > tomorrow
> > > >afternoon.
> > > >
> > > >HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the eastern Top End today
and
> > > >extending to the Gulf Country on Sunday.
> > > >
> > > >Details of TROPICAL LOW at 5 pm CST [5.30 pm EST]:
> > > > . Centre located near....... 12.3 degrees South 137.6 degrees East
> > > > . Location accuracy......... within 45 kilometres
> > > > . Recent movement........... south-southeast at 20 km/h
> > > > . Wind gusts near centre.... 90 kilometres per hour and intensifying
> > > > . Central pressure.......... 989 hectoPascals
> > > >
> > > >REPEATING:  A CYCLONE WARNING is current between ELCHO ISLAND and
> > MORNINGTON
> > > >ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and GROOTE EYLANDT.
> > > >
> > > >The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 8 pm CST [8.30 pm EST].
> > > >
> > > >This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211 and 1300 659 212.
> > > >
> > > >DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
> > >
> > >
> > > Carl Smith.
> > > Gold Coast.
> > > Queensland.
> > > Australia.
> > >
> > > email: carls at ace-net.com.au
> > > internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/
> > >
> > > For convenient downloadable Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps :
> > > http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
> > > For links to current Tropical Cyclone information :
> > > http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bill Webb" <billwebb at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 19:44:50 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

'Day Jonty, Anthony, List,

from Bill in Proserpine.

I feel I should add another perspective to this discussion - and I am sure
we have discussed it before.

Whenever the Southern press get wind of "a cyclone in North Qld", they
replay their antique footage of damage and destruction to accompany their
news "story" (facts and news stories are not the same thing, as you've
experienced  Jonty). As a result, tourist resorts up this way recieve many
canellations for bookings, although the cyclone (or even a modest low) may
be thousands of kilometers away !!

Many in southern Aust. have NO IDEA of the distances involved, nor of the
relatively benign effects of most of the cyclones which cross the coast of
Qld. (I've had southern rellies ringing up to ask if I am all right when the
cylcone has crossed north of Cairns!).

Hence, I support the BoM in their reluctance to talk about cyclones off the
NQ coast BEFORE they are sure of their facts. I am not sure when or how they
should make the decision to go public - I sympathise with the decision
makers. But I agree that they should be cautious with their warnings. I'm
reminded of the Sydney hail storm a bit back, and the discussion about the
lack of warnings -  the BoM people find themselves between a rock and a hard
place.

I'm sure though that they will not talk about "the chance" of a Cat 4
cyclone off Proserpine just to satisfy the  storm lust of someone in
Adelaide or Melbourne or somewhere else (no offence intended!) - or at least
I HOPE NOT! Cyclones are not fun.

More questions than answers maybe -  but a different perspective maybe.

Regards, from Ada, Althea, Aivu, Charlie, and many more,
and, Bill - NOT in the tourist industry.

----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, February 11, 2001 02:02 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria


> Hi Jonty,
>
> I agree with your remarks here.  I think the issue should not be so much
> focused on whether it is a TC or not, but rather whether the BoM should
> consider giving alternative warning systems for those systems that have
> the potential to do some damage, but aren't quite in the TC category.
> In SE QLD when we have heavy rain and gales, they often issue a severe
> weather warning (as you're no doubt aware!)  I think this works well,
> and I think it'd be good to use for some of the monsoonal depressions
> that really don't quite fall into the TC category but perhaps could do
> some isolated damage.
>
> AC
>
> Jonty Hall wrote:
> >
> > Paul,
> >
> > There has been some questioning of the BoM's services and policy here of
> > late and some constructive criticism, which is a good thing. However I
> > have to say that in this case your inferences (and facts) are very
> > misguided and in no way concerned with realities at all.
> >
> > Firstly, it is rediculous to suggest that the BoM ignores TCs and hopes
> > they go away. TCs are the bureau's highest priority. The Brisbane TCWC
has
> > been manned 24 hours for the past 2 days, even though the system was
only
> > expected to have a minor impact on Queensland. A lot of hard work has
gone
> > into this system (like every other TC). You seem to have the impression
> > that we just sort of sit around and put the odd warning out without
> > bothering too much about it. This is definitely not the case!! This has
> > been a rather unusual system - the max winds have been well removed from
> > the centre through most of its lifetime, it was only as it approached
> > landfall that the central convection consolidated. The centre passed
close
> > to Gove yesterday, which observed a minimum pressure of 990.4 hPa, and
yet
> > nothing above 16 knots was recorded (with a maximum gust of 31 knots). A
> > named TC requires gales (>34 knots 10 min sustained) in all 4 quadrants.
> > This system did not, and resembled an intense monsoon depression rather
> > than a TC, even though it had a rather low central pressure. The
intensity
> > of a TC is based on wind speed NOT on central pressure (the relationship
> > between the two is nothing like as straight forward as people believe).
In
> > any case, it was well handled by the models, whether it had a name or
not.
> >
> > Secondly, the other low you mention which effected the top end on the
8th
> > and 9th of January never approached anything like the intensity you
claim.
> > It never went below 1000 hPa, and sustained winds never reached (or even
> > approached) gale force. Darwin was recording 10 knots at gradient level
> > when the system was about 100 km to the east. I'm not sure where you got
> > the 60 to 70 knots from, but these are almost certainly false - maybe
they
> > are gust speeds recorded in thunderstorms. It certainly never had an
eye,
> > and did not have an organised structure.
> >
> > I'm all for constructive critisism, but lets stick at least somewhere
near
> > the facts eh....
> >
> > Jonty.
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 21:38:42 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Bill

While I have some sympathy with you views, I believe that ample warning
times are essential. Public education more so !

Nothing will stop the hysteria of the press regarding storms as the press is
designed to feed off sensationalism. However, if the community (including
tourists) are not wise to TC information, then the knock on negative effect
to the
tourist industry will perpetuate.

(By the way, regarding monsoonal lows transitioning into TCs etc from my
earlier message, I mean TC Justin not TC Jason exhibiting these
characteristics. Anyone please advise of any others they know of.)

Thanks
Simon

----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill Webb" <billwebb at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, February 11, 2001 8:44 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria


> 'Day Jonty, Anthony, List,
>
> from Bill in Proserpine.
>
> I feel I should add another perspective to this discussion - and I am sure
> we have discussed it before.
>
> Whenever the Southern press get wind of "a cyclone in North Qld", they
> replay their antique footage of damage and destruction to accompany their
> news "story" (facts and news stories are not the same thing, as you've
> experienced  Jonty). As a result, tourist resorts up this way recieve many
> canellations for bookings, although the cyclone (or even a modest low) may
> be thousands of kilometers away !!
>
> Many in southern Aust. have NO IDEA of the distances involved, nor of the
> relatively benign effects of most of the cyclones which cross the coast of
> Qld. (I've had southern rellies ringing up to ask if I am all right when
the
> cylcone has crossed north of Cairns!).
>
> Hence, I support the BoM in their reluctance to talk about cyclones off
the
> NQ coast BEFORE they are sure of their facts. I am not sure when or how
they
> should make the decision to go public - I sympathise with the decision
> makers. But I agree that they should be cautious with their warnings. I'm
> reminded of the Sydney hail storm a bit back, and the discussion about the
> lack of warnings -  the BoM people find themselves between a rock and a
hard
> place.
>
> I'm sure though that they will not talk about "the chance" of a Cat 4
> cyclone off Proserpine just to satisfy the  storm lust of someone in
> Adelaide or Melbourne or somewhere else (no offence intended!) - or at
least
> I HOPE NOT! Cyclones are not fun.
>
> More questions than answers maybe -  but a different perspective maybe.
>
> Regards, from Ada, Althea, Aivu, Charlie, and many more,
> and, Bill - NOT in the tourist industry.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Sunday, February 11, 2001 02:02 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
>
>
> > Hi Jonty,
> >
> > I agree with your remarks here.  I think the issue should not be so much
> > focused on whether it is a TC or not, but rather whether the BoM should
> > consider giving alternative warning systems for those systems that have
> > the potential to do some damage, but aren't quite in the TC category.
> > In SE QLD when we have heavy rain and gales, they often issue a severe
> > weather warning (as you're no doubt aware!)  I think this works well,
> > and I think it'd be good to use for some of the monsoonal depressions
> > that really don't quite fall into the TC category but perhaps could do
> > some isolated damage.
> >
> > AC
> >
> > Jonty Hall wrote:
> > >
> > > Paul,
> > >
> > > There has been some questioning of the BoM's services and policy here
of
> > > late and some constructive criticism, which is a good thing. However I
> > > have to say that in this case your inferences (and facts) are very
> > > misguided and in no way concerned with realities at all.
> > >
> > > Firstly, it is rediculous to suggest that the BoM ignores TCs and
hopes
> > > they go away. TCs are the bureau's highest priority. The Brisbane TCWC
> has
> > > been manned 24 hours for the past 2 days, even though the system was
> only
> > > expected to have a minor impact on Queensland. A lot of hard work has
> gone
> > > into this system (like every other TC). You seem to have the
impression
> > > that we just sort of sit around and put the odd warning out without
> > > bothering too much about it. This is definitely not the case!! This
has
> > > been a rather unusual system - the max winds have been well removed
from
> > > the centre through most of its lifetime, it was only as it approached
> > > landfall that the central convection consolidated. The centre passed
> close
> > > to Gove yesterday, which observed a minimum pressure of 990.4 hPa, and
> yet
> > > nothing above 16 knots was recorded (with a maximum gust of 31 knots).
A
> > > named TC requires gales (>34 knots 10 min sustained) in all 4
quadrants.
> > > This system did not, and resembled an intense monsoon depression
rather
> > > than a TC, even though it had a rather low central pressure. The
> intensity
> > > of a TC is based on wind speed NOT on central pressure (the
relationship
> > > between the two is nothing like as straight forward as people
believe).
> In
> > > any case, it was well handled by the models, whether it had a name or
> not.
> > >
> > > Secondly, the other low you mention which effected the top end on the
> 8th
> > > and 9th of January never approached anything like the intensity you
> claim.
> > > It never went below 1000 hPa, and sustained winds never reached (or
even
> > > approached) gale force. Darwin was recording 10 knots at gradient
level
> > > when the system was about 100 km to the east. I'm not sure where you
got
> > > the 60 to 70 knots from, but these are almost certainly false - maybe
> they
> > > are gust speeds recorded in thunderstorms. It certainly never had an
> eye,
> > > and did not have an organised structure.
> > >
> > > I'm all for constructive critisism, but lets stick at least somewhere
> near
> > > the facts eh....
> > >
> > > Jonty.
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 11:48:58 -0000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Jane / everyone

More like 4 (or even 5) - tropical disturbance, tropical storm, hurricane
(tropical revolving storm) ,extratropical revolving storm [downgraded from
hurricane status but still a nasty piece of work with hurricane force
winds], (deep area of low pressure with circular isobars and no fronts)

Les


Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
StormCam:
http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
ICQ: 17296776
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, February 11, 2001 6:39 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria


> Afternoon all,
>
> From what I've read I've noticed that in the USA, hurricanes seem to have
3
> developmental categories:
> a) tropical disturbance
> b) tropical storm and
> c) hurricane.
>
> Is there any such classification in the Australian region - ie: tropical
storm
> as distinct from tropical depression, tropical cyclone???
>
> In the USA a tropical storm is the sub level of a hurricane and is used as
an
> intermediate description.  There are quite a number of tropical
disturbances
> attaining this status & they are quite capable of producing dangerous seas
&
> some damage on land.  As Jonty suggested, they do lack full hurricane
status and
> the strongest winds do tend to favour certain sectors rather than the
whole
> circumference.
>
> In respect to TC Winsome, it always was close to the coast & always
appeared
> marginal in its development - it wasn't until yesterday afternoon that
> convective bands got organised and the organised outflow became apparent.
> However, it would have reached 'tropical storm' status yesterday prior to
being
> named a TC (under the US classification).
>
> Is this something that could be looked at in a developmental sense.
>
> On another note, it would be good to see a standardisation of terms for
TCs ie:
> why don't we all use the word hurricane worldwide? It's interesting to
note that
> these systems are called TC on the eastern side of Africa but hurricanes
on the
> western side.
>
> Jane
>
> Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>
> > Hi Jonty,
> >
> > I agree with your remarks here.  I think the issue should not be so much
> > focused on whether it is a TC or not, but rather whether the BoM should
> > consider giving alternative warning systems for those systems that have
> > the potential to do some damage, but aren't quite in the TC category.
> > In SE QLD when we have heavy rain and gales, they often issue a severe
> > weather warning (as you're no doubt aware!)  I think this works well,
> > and I think it'd be good to use for some of the monsoonal depressions
> > that really don't quite fall into the TC category but perhaps could do
> > some isolated damage.
> >
> > AC
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2001 01:21:39 +1100 (AEDT)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Jane,

The Americans use tropical depression/tropical storm/hurricane. This is
equivalent to tropical depression/tropical storm/typhoon in the western
north pacific (west of the date line) and tropical depression/tropical
cyclone/severe tropical cyclone in our neck of the woods. The threshold
intensities are 34 knots and 64 knots. The biggest problem with lack of
worldwide consistency is not in the names, but with the wind averaging
employed. The WMO recommends using 10 minute averaging, and almost
everyone uses this, except the Americans who insist on sticking to 1
minute averaging (this includes the JTWC of course). This can (and does) 
create hassles when comparing basin climatologies and in interpreting
forecast guidance when more than one centre handles a system. There are
also intensity scales (categories 1 to 5) in use in the Atlantic, Eastern
north pacific and Australia, but these are not exactly comparable either
due to the averaging problem. In the WNP they don't use a scale, but they
do refer to a system as a super typhoon if it has (1 minute) sustained
winds above 130 knots. Its not likely the yanks will change in a hurry -
it took us about 100 years to convince them that we don't really call
these things willie-willies in Australia!! 

A system is named once it reaches tropical storm/tropical cyclone strength
(except in the north Indian where they don't name them at all). Confusion
can arise as tropical cyclone is also a generic term for all "non frontal
tropical revolving storms". Other confusion can arrise as "hurricane" is
also a wind strength on the Beaufort Scale (along with gale, storm etc),
defined as winds above 64 knots (whether its associated with a tropical
cyclone or not). Try explaining all that to someone over the phone while
you're trying to write a forecast!! 

Hope that helps...

Jonty.

____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au

Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office
295 Ann Street
Brisbane  Qld   4000
Australia

Ph +61 7 3239 8700

____________________________________________________________________

On Sun, 11 Feb 2001, Jane ONeill wrote:

> Afternoon all,
> 
> >From what I've read I've noticed that in the USA, hurricanes seem to have 3
> developmental categories:
> a) tropical disturbance
> b) tropical storm and
> c) hurricane.
> 
> Is there any such classification in the Australian region - ie: tropical storm
> as distinct from tropical depression, tropical cyclone???
> 
> In the USA a tropical storm is the sub level of a hurricane and is used as an
> intermediate description.  There are quite a number of tropical disturbances
> attaining this status & they are quite capable of producing dangerous seas &
> some damage on land.  As Jonty suggested, they do lack full hurricane status and
> the strongest winds do tend to favour certain sectors rather than the whole
> circumference.
> 
> In respect to TC Winsome, it always was close to the coast & always appeared
> marginal in its development - it wasn't until yesterday afternoon that
> convective bands got organised and the organised outflow became apparent.
> However, it would have reached 'tropical storm' status yesterday prior to being
> named a TC (under the US classification).
> 
> Is this something that could be looked at in a developmental sense.
> 
> On another note, it would be good to see a standardisation of terms for TCs ie:
> why don't we all use the word hurricane worldwide? It's interesting to note that
> these systems are called TC on the eastern side of Africa but hurricanes on the
> western side.
> 
> Jane
> 
> Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> 
> > Hi Jonty,
> >
> > I agree with your remarks here.  I think the issue should not be so much
> > focused on whether it is a TC or not, but rather whether the BoM should
> > consider giving alternative warning systems for those systems that have
> > the potential to do some damage, but aren't quite in the TC category.
> > In SE QLD when we have heavy rain and gales, they often issue a severe
> > weather warning (as you're no doubt aware!)  I think this works well,
> > and I think it'd be good to use for some of the monsoonal depressions
> > that really don't quite fall into the TC category but perhaps could do
> > some isolated damage.
> >
> > AC
> 
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> 
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> 
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
> 
> 
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>  message.
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> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2001 09:16:48 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
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They are not unique to Aussie waters, we often see monsoonal lows 
becoming TCs here in the NWP.
Sometimes several smaller TCs can develop similtaneously at different 
points around a large monsoonal depression.
Very quiet here at present, Oz is getting all the action.
What are the chances of Winsome crossing the Kimberley area and getting 
reorganised over the Indian?  Pretty good I reckon, if you look at the 
satpics.

Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672



-----Original Message-----
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 16:36:51 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria

<snip> 
> This particular storm has fuelled my interest in monsoonal low pressure
> areas. Can anyone give some other examples of monsoon low to tropical
> cyclone transitions (were they rapid events ?). Also are they fairly
> unique
> to Australian waters ?
> 
> 
> Thanks
> Simon
<very big snip>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2001 14:50:49 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Criterion Change in SH
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

In view of the recent TC Winsome (08P) discussions by Paul, Jonty, Jane,
and others on the aus-wx list, I think some of you will find the message
pasted here is interesting. I recieved it from Gary Padgett who prepares
the Global Monthly Tropical Cyclone Summaries I post here.

>Here's an excerpt from a letter to Mark Lander and some others from Steve
>Ready of the New Zealand Met Service.  This concerns a change to the
>basic definition of a tropical cyclone in WMO Region 5 (Australia and
>the South Pacific) (one which I concur with).
>
>>At the WMO RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee in Rarotonga, September 2000 the
>>definition of tropical cyclone was changed to bring it into line with what
>>happens in other basins. The requirement for gale force winds to wrap all
>>the way round the centre before a tropical depression was upgraded to
>>tropical cyclone was dropped. In the past, the enforcement of this
>>requirement had seen a number of cyclones well on the way to becoming a
>>hurricane before they were given a name. Hopefully, now that the threshold
>>is not as strict as before, any resultant tropical cyclones will be named
>>before the development gets too far advanced.  This change to the
>>definition will also speed up the transition from monsoon depression to
>>tropical cyclone.

Applying this standard would probably have resulted in TC Winsome being
named rather earlier (which would probably satisfy Paul and some others),
and could also result in some of the hybrid systems that develop from time
to time off the Central or SE Qld coast to be named systems (which would
require the overworked and understaffed BoM to issue extra cyclone warnings
and to make some changes in the public cyclone education material).

I look forward to seeing any BoM response to this.

Regards,
Carl.



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2001 14:48:56 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: SUMMARY: Northern Hemisphere TC Review
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


               A REVIEW OF THE 2000 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON

                       FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE


     Following is a tabular summary of all the tropical depressions,
  tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons which occurred in the
  Northern Hemisphere between 1 January and 31 December 2000, as
  reported in the Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summaries prepared
  by the author.

    (1) Number - this is the cyclone warning number assigned by either
                 TPC/NHC, CPHC in Honolulu, or JTWC.  If neither of these
                 agencies issued any warnings, no number will be given.

    (2) Name - the name (if any) assigned by either TPC/NHC, CPHC, or
               JTWC (and PAGASA for Western North Pacific systems in
               their area of warning responsibility).    Greek letter
               names were assigned to certain systems by the author
               for purposes of discussion in the monthly summaries.

    (3) Dates - range of dates for which tracking information for the
                cyclone is available in the Global Tropical Cyclone
                Tracks files prepared by the author.

    (4) Pressure - Lowest central pressure (either estimated or recorded)
                   during the lifetime of the cyclone.  For Atlantic and
                   Northeastern Pacific systems these will be the values
                   reported in operational advisories from TPC/NHC or
                   CPHC.  For Northwest Pacific systems the central
                   pressure estimates are taken from advisories issued by
                   the Japanese Meteorological Agency.  An asterisk (*)
                   following the pressure indicates the reading was an
                   actual measured pressure normally obtained by a drop-
                   sonde released during an aerial reconnaissance
                   flight.    Central pressure is given in millibars,
                   which is numerically equivalent to hectopascals.

    (5) MSW - maximum 1-minute average sustained windspeed in knots.
              For the Northwestern Pacific and North Indian Ocean
              basins, these will be the highest value assigned
              operationally by JTWC.  For the Atlantic and Northeastern
              Pacific basins, the MSW values are taken from the
              official tropical cyclone reports prepared by the
              TPC/NHC Hurricane Specialists and which are available
              on TPC/NHC's website: <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov> .

    (6) Basins - tropical cyclone basins where the cyclone tracked during
                 its life:

                 ATL - North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea
                 NEP - North Pacific east of Longitude 180
                 NWP - North Pacific west of Longitude 180
                       (including South China Sea)
                 NIO - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

     For tropical systems in the NWP basin, two additional columns of
  information are given:

     (1) The tropical storm serial number assigned by the Japanese
         Meteorological Agency to tropical depressions which are deemed
         to have reached tropical storm intensity.  This does not always
         agree with JTWC's assessment.

     (2) An estimate of the maximum 10-minute average sustained wind.
         These values are taken from either Japan's or Manila's warnings,
         whichever had the higher value.


     A number in parentheses (e.g. (1) ) following an entry refers to
  a note following the entries for the given basin.   A separate table
  is given for each of the four Northern Hemisphere basins.

  ***********************************************************************

                             ATLANTIC BASIN

 NUM  NAME          DATES           CENT PRS   MSW               BASIN
                                      (mb)    (kts)
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

 --   -----         19-25 May         1012*     30                ATL (1)
 01   -----         07-08 Jun         1008*     25                ATL
 02   -----         23-25 Jun         1008      30                ATL
 03   Alberto       03-23 Aug          950     110                ATL
 04   -----         04-11 Aug         1009*     30                ATL
 --   "Lambda"      11-13 Aug         1006      35                ATL (2)
 05   Beryl         13-15 Aug         1007*     45                ATL
 06   Chris         17-19 Aug         1008      35                ATL
 07   Debby         19-24 Aug          993*     75                ATL
 --   -----         28-31 Aug         1005      35                ATL (3)
 08   Ernesto       01-03 Sep         1008      35                ATL
 09   -----         08-09 Sep         1009      30                ATL
 10   Florence      10-17 Sep          985      70                ATL
 11   Gordon        14-21 Sep          981*     70                ATL
 12   Helene        15-25 Sep          986      60                ATL
 13   Isaac         21 Sep-01 Oct      943     120                ATL
 14   Joyce         25 Sep-02 Oct      975      80                ATL
 15   Keith         28 Sep-06 Oct      939*    120                ATL
 --   -----         30 Sep-04 Oct      987      40                ATL (3)
 16   Leslie        04-10 Oct         1003*     40                ATL (4)
 17   Michael       15-20 Oct          979*     85                ATL
 18   Nadine        19-22 Oct          999      50                ATL
 --   -----         25-29 Oct          978      55                ATL (5)

 NOTES:

 (1) Information on this system was supplied by Michael Pitt and David
     Roth.   David classified this system as a subtropical depression.

 (2) This system was included in the August summary based on a Dvorak
     rating of T2.0 from SAB and a peripheral ship report of 35 kts
     which suggested that it might be given some consideration for later
     inclusion as a tropical depression or storm.   However, it now
     appears unlikely that this system will qualify as an unnamed
     tropical storm.

 (3) These systems had some hybrid characteristics and could possibly be
     added to the Best Track file as subtropical storms pending a
     complete review of all available data.  Tracks upon which the above
     information was based were supplied by David Roth.

 (4) Before being upgraded to TS Leslie, operational advisories were
     issued on this system as Subtropical Depression #1.

 (5) This storm system was treated operationally as a non-tropical storm,
     but has since been officially reclassified as a subtropical storm
     and will be added to the Best Tracks database.

 ************************************************************************

                         NORTHEAST PACFICIC BASIN

 NUM  NAME          DATES           CENT PRS   MSW               BASIN
                                      (mb)    (kts)
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

 01E  Aletta        22-28 May          970      90                NEP
 02E  Bud           13-17 Jun          994      45                NEP
 03E  Carlotta      18-25 Jun          932     135                NEP
 04E  -----         06-07 Jul         1007      25                NEP
 01C  Upana/Chanchu 20-30 Jul          994      40 (1)            NEP/NWP
 05E  -----         22-23 Jul         1005      30                NEP
 06E  Daniel        23 Jul-05 Aug      954     110                NEP
 07E  Emilia        26-30 Jul          994      55                NEP
 08E  Fabio         03-08 Aug         1000      45                NEP
 09E  Gilma         05-11 Aug          984      70                NEP
 10E  Hector        10-16 Aug          983      70                NEP
 11E  Ileana        13-17 Aug          991      60                NEP
 16W  Wene          15-17 Aug         1002      45 (2)            NWP/NEP
 ---  "Mu"          26 Aug-02 Sep      ---      40                NEP (3)
 12E  John          28 Aug-01 Sep      994      60                NEP
 13E  Kristy        31 Aug-03 Sep     1004      35                NEP
 14E  Lane          05-14 Sep          967      85                NEP
 15E  Miriam        15-17 Sep         1004      35                NEP
 16E  Norman        20-22 Sep          998      45                NEP
 17E  Olivia        02-10 Oct          994      55                NEP
 18E  Paul          25-29 Oct         1003      40                NEP
 19E  Rosa          03-08 Nov          993      55                NEP

 NOTES:

 (1) TS Upana weakened in the Central Pacific and warnings were dropped
     by CPHC.  The remnant disturbance eventually moved across the Date-
     line into the NWP where it re-intensified.  JTWC referred to the
     system as 12W and it was named TS Chanchu (0007) by JMA.  The
     highest 10-min avg winds assigned by JMA were 35 kts.

 (2) System formed just west of (practically straddling) the Dateline and
     was numbered 16W by JTWC.  By the time the second warning was issued
     the center was just east of the Dateline and remained in the NEP
     basin for the remainder of its life.

 (3) No warnings were issued on this system by CPHC.  Its inclusion here
     is based solely upon information supplied by Mark Lander.

 ************************************************************************

                         NORTHWEST PACFICIC BASIN

 JTWC    NAME(S)      JMA     DATES         CENT    MSW   MSW    BASIN
 NUM                TROP STM                PRS    1-MIN 10-MIN
                      NUM                   (mb)   (kts) (kts)
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

 01W  Damrey/Asiang   0001  05-12 May        930    155    90     NWP
 02W  Longwang/Biring 0002  17-20 May        992     40    45     NWP
 03W  Konsing         ----  20-22 May       1002     30    30     NWP
 04W  -----           ----  30 May-01 Jun    ---     30    --     NWP
 ---  "Kappa"               01-05 Jul        ---     40    --     NWP (1)
 05W  Kirogi/Ditang   0003  02-08 Jul        940    115    90     NWP
 06W  Kai-tak/Edeng   0004  03-11 Jul        960     75    75     NWP
 07W  Gloring         ----  11-15 Jul       1000     25    30     NWP
 08W  -----           ----  16-17 Jul        996     25    30     NWP
 09W  Tembin          0005  17-23 Jul        992     45    40     NWP
 10W  Bolaven/Huaning 0006  20-31 Jul        980     50    55     NWP (2)
 13W  Jelawat         0008  30 Jul-11 Aug    940    125    85     NWP (3)
 14W  -----           ----  06-12 Aug       1012     30    30     NWP (4)
 15W  Ewiniar         0009  09-19 Aug        965     75    70     NWP
 17W  -----           ----  17-19 Aug        ---     25    --     NWP
 18W  Bilis/Isang     0010  18-24 Aug        915    140   110     NWP
 ---  -----           ----  19-20 Aug       1000     --    30     NWP (5)
 19W  Kaemi           0011  20-23 Aug        985     45    45     NWP
 20W  Prapiroon/ (6)  0012  25 Aug-01 Sep    965     75    70     NWP
 21W  Maria           0013  28 Aug-01 Sep    985     55    40     NWP
 22W  Saomai/Osang    0014  02-18 Sep        925    140   100     NWP
 23W  Wukong/Maring   0016  02-10 Sep        955     95    75     NWP
 24W  Bopha/Ningning  0015  05-12 Sep        985     55    50     NWP
 ---  "Nu"            ----  13-18 Sep        ---     45    --     NWP (1)
 25W  Sonamu          0017  14-21 Sep        975     75    55     NWP
 26W  Shanshan        0018  17-27 Sep        930    135    95     NWP
 27W  -----           ----  28-30 Sep       1008     35    30     NWP
 28W  -----           ----  06-14 Oct        998     40    30     NWP
 ---  "Xi"            ----  15-19 Oct        ---     40    --     NWP (1)
 29W  Yagi/Paring     0019  21-28 Oct        975    105    65     NWP
 30W  Xangsane/Reming 0020  25 Oct-02 Nov    965     90    75     NWP
 31W  Bebinca/Seniang 0021  31 Oct-08 Nov    970     90    70     NWP
 32W  -----           ----  08-09 Nov       1004     30    30     NWP
 33W  Rumbia/Toyang   0022  27 Nov-08 Dec    985     55    55     NWP
 ---  Ulpiang         ----  06-08 Dec        ---     --    30     NWP (7)
 34W  Soulik/Welpring 0023  28 Dec-05 Jan    945    115    80     NWP

 NOTES:

 (1) No warnings were issued on these systems by any warning agency.
     Their inclusion here is based solely upon information supplied by
     Mark Lander.

 (2) At one point this system weakened and warnings were dropped by JTWC.
     When re-intensification occurred, JTWC applied the number 11W to
     the rejuvenated depression which was later named TS Bolaven by JMA.
     PAGASA, on the other hand, had named the system Huaning during the
     period it was being referred to as TD-10W by JTWC, and maintained
     bulletins on the system during the time JTWC was not issuing
     warnings.

 (3) Mark Lander provided me with an alternate track for the first part
     of Jelawat's history and assessed the peak 1-min MSW at 130 kts.

 (4) Mark Lander provided me with an alternate track of TD-14W in which
     he assigned a peak 1-min MSW of 50 kts.

 (5) This system was carried as a tropical depression by JMA only.

 (6) The PAGASA name assigned to this system was Lusing.

 (7) PAGASA was the only agency issuing warnings on this system.

 ************************************************************************

                       NORTH INDIAN OCEAN BASIN

 NUM  NAME          DATES           CENT PRS   MSW               BASIN
                                      (mb)    (kts)
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

 ---  -----         27-30 Mar          ---      30                NIO
 ---  "Iota"        25 Mar-01 Apr      ---      60                NIO (1)
 ---  -----         22-23 Aug          ---      25                NIO (2)
 01B  -----         15-18 Oct          ---      35                NIO
 02B  -----         26-28 Oct          ---      35                NIO
 03B  -----         26 Nov-06 Dec      ---      65                NIO
 04B  -----         25-28 Dec          ---      65                NIO

 NOTES:

 (1) This is really another and more extended version of the first
     disturbance listed based upon information supplied by Roger
     Edson.    In Roger's opinion, after the initial disturbance had
     weakened, a small, rather intense tropical cyclone rapidly spun up
     and made landfall in southeastern India.  (See the March summary
     for more information on this possible unrecorded tropical storm.)

 (2) This system was a weak depression classified by IMD only.  No track
     was given in the cyclone tracks file for August, but some
     information on the system can be found in the monthly summary for
     August.

 ************************************************************************

 Prepared by Gary Padgett
 garyp at alaweb.com
 Home: 334-222-5327
 Work: 850-882-2594


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2001 16:58:04 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Phil.
Checking the sat pic at 1500hrs local (Leopold) the centre of former TC
Winsome is still showing reasonable convergence and rather good high level
outflow and appears to be moving slowly westward, there is also another
tropical disturbance well off the coast of northwest WA that is showing some
potential as well,there is good outflow south of Winsome with upper cirrus
bands moving rapidly to the east northeast from Alice Springs to the central
Coral Sea. With the  present level of positive atmospheric support around
Winsome it looks as if this system moves offshore there is a good chance of
reactivation,another possibility is for the system to become absorbed into a
deep trough moving through SA and Vic at the moment but this is only  a
slight possibility, more likely to see the strong high south of WA ridging
to the  Aus Bight which may aid in pressure forcing Winsome off shore, I am
looking forward to a cyclone developing over the Coral sea there has been
nothing there this year at all ,a recent trip to far north QLD was
interesting with sea temps between 28 and 30! under the right conditions I
think a development in this area may become a monster. regards Clyve
Herbert.---- Original Message -----
From: Phil Smith <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 12, 2001 12:16 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria


> They are not unique to Aussie waters, we often see monsoonal lows
> becoming TCs here in the NWP.
> Sometimes several smaller TCs can develop similtaneously at different
> points around a large monsoonal depression.
> Very quiet here at present, Oz is getting all the action.
> What are the chances of Winsome crossing the Kimberley area and getting
> reorganised over the Indian?  Pretty good I reckon, if you look at the
> satpics.
>
> Phil
> <><
> International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 16:36:51 +1100
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone (08P) Gulf of Carpentaria
>
> <snip>
> > This particular storm has fuelled my interest in monsoonal low pressure
> > areas. Can anyone give some other examples of monsoon low to tropical
> > cyclone transitions (were they rapid events ?). Also are they fairly
> > unique
> > to Australian waters ?
> >
> >
> > Thanks
> > Simon
> <very big snip>
>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: mjd at iinet.net.au
Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2001 14:04:55 +0800
X-Authentication-Warning: localhost.localdomain: web set sender to mjd at iinet.net.au using -f
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Possible TC of NW Coast of WA Latter Today
X-Mailer: iiNet WebMail v2
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all, 

Look's like the next TC of the WA Season could be named latter tonight or 
early tomorrow morning at this early stage, if what the BoM in Perth is 
saying in the Notes on Weather below, also below in the NW TC outlook ( 
BoM, Perth ) and JTWC advice that has been re-issued for the same system.
  What are other ppl's thoughts on this and if it is to become a Cyclone 
what will it's name be ?.

MJ.

NOTES ON THE WEATHER FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 4:55am WST on Monday the 12th of February 2001

SYNOPTIC SITUATION AND FORECAST EXPLANATION:
A cold front moved eastwards along the south coast last night. Cooler S'ly 
flow
is expected over southern districts today with isolated drizzle near the 
south
coast. A persistent cloud band across the southern Gascoyne, Goldfields, SW
Interior and Eucla should produce further rain, but should slowly contract
eastwards away from the west coast. 
Thunderstorms activity should continue in the tropics. 
A tropical low almost stationary about 675km north of Exmouth is slowly
deepening and may become a tropical cyclone today. It is not expected to 
affect
the NW coast during today or Tuesday. 
A rain bearing low [formerly Tropical Cyclone Winsome] over the  Top End 
SE of
Darwin is moving slowly southwestwards. Rain from this systems is expected 
to
extend into the east Kimberley today.


IDW10800
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY 
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 12:00pm WST on Monday the 12th of February 2001
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

Tropical Low.
      Location          : near 15.5S 111.0E
      about 750km [400 nautical miles] NNW of Exmouth or 950km [500 
nautical
miles] WNW Port Hedland.
      Central Pressure  : 991 hPa
      Recent movement   : Slowly westward.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL  
      next 24 hours   : high   
      24-48   hours   : high   
      48-72   hours   : high

REMARKS - The circulation is becoming more organised and observations from 
a
nearby buoy indicate pressures are falling steadily. Conditions are 
favourable
for further development into a significant tropical cyclone over the next 
two
days. Although moving slowly westwards at the moment, computer models 
suggest
that the system is likely to track back towards the northwest coast during 
the
week. 

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of        
**
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period.                   
**
** LOW = 10-20%   MODERATE = 30-40%   HIGH = 50% or more                   
**

RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 15.8S4 110.8E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 112330Z0 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S5 110.8E0. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS PERSISTED IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, 
410 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE 
LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCT DEPICTS THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY 
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS CLEARLY 
DEPICTS A 20 KNOT LLCC. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
130200Z6.//

NNNN

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Karratha Weather" <karratha at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: 3rd WA TC of the Season ! TC Vincent !!!!! whoohoo
Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2001 15:04:19 +0800
Organization: Karratha Weather Observations
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

They just keep coming for WA this year :)
The second TC in lees than 3 weeks
The EC model has this one doing a loop back towards the NW coast on
Thursday/Friday.......going to be an interesting week!
http://www.ecmwf.int/charts/daily/shm_msl_96.gif


IDW23100
40:0:1:24:15S111E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0620UTC 12 FEBRUARY 2001

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

IMPORTANT INFORMATION
*  Wind speed refers to the average speed over a 10-minute period. Gusts may
be
up to 40 per cent stronger than the average speed.
*  Wave and swell heights refer to 'significant wave heights' representing
the
average of the highest one third of the waves. The likely maximum wave
height
can be up to twice the significant wave height.

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Vincent with central pressure 988hPa located at 0600UTC
within 30 nautical miles of
 Latitude fourteen decimal eighteen south [14.8S]
 Longitude one hundred and ten decimal eight east [110.8E]
and moving northwest at 6 knots.


AREA AFFECTED
Tropical cyclone causing rough to very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell
and
30/45 knot winds within 120 nautical miles of centre, extending to 240
nautical
miles in northern quadrants due to strong monsoonal flow.
Expect very rough seas, heavy swell and 45/55 knots within 30 nautical miles
of
the centre after 0000UTC 13 February.


FORECAST
At 1600UTC 12 February.  14.6 south  111.3 east  985hPa
At 0400UTC 13 February.  14.8 south  112.5 east  975hPa

WEATHER PERTH

Regards JJ

Karratha WA
cyclone at karrathaweather.org
www.karrathaweather.org


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David_Cornford at ansett.com.au
X-Lotus-FromDomain: ANSETT
To: aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2001 17:55:24 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #885
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com




Carl Smith wrote:

>In view of the recent TC Winsome (08P) discussions by Paul, Jonty, Jane,
>and others on the aus-wx list, I think some of you will find the message
>pasted here is interesting. I recieved it from Gary Padgett who prepares
>the Global Monthly Tropical Cyclone Summaries I post here.
>>At the WMO RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee in Rarotonga, September 2000 the
>>definition of tropical cyclone was changed to bring it into line with what
>>happens in other basins. The requirement for gale force winds to wrap all
>>the way round the centre before a tropical depression was upgraded to
>>tropical cyclone was dropped. In the past, the enforcement of this
>>requirement had seen a number of cyclones well on the way to becoming a
>>hurricane before they were given a name. Hopefully, now that the threshold
>>is not as strict as before, any resultant tropical cyclones will be named
>>before the development gets too far advanced.  This change to the
>>definition will also speed up the transition from monsoon depression to
>>tropical cyclone.


My quesiton is what is the likely impact that this will have on historical
monitoring and comparison
of cyclonic frequency if the base grade is lowered?  apples and oranges? or
apples and smaller apples?

Best regards
DVC


_____________________________________________________________________
CAUTION - This message may contain privileged and confidential 
information intended only for the use of the addressee named above.
If you are not the intended recipient of this message you are hereby 
notified that any use, dissemination, distribution or reproduction 
of this message is prohibited. If you have received this message in 
error please notify Ansett Australia immediately. Any views expressed 
in this message are those of the individual sender and may not 
necessarily reflect the views of Ansett Australia.

ABN Ansett Australia Ltd	37 004 209 410
ABN Ansett International Ltd	72 060 622 460
_____________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p206-tnt1.mel.ihug.com.au [203.173.160.206] claimed to be newpc
From: "Chris G" <zosowx at ihug.com.au>
To: "aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: SA severe summary archive
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 18:59:42 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hey everyone, just a quick note to let you know 
that thanks to a couple of days research by Andrew and Kathryn Wall as well as 
Greg (both days) and myself (one day) at the SA BOM - there is now a page 
detailing SA's severe weather by month back to 1963. There is a gap in the years 
- however this is hopefully going to be rectified shortly when another visit is 
planned. I must also say that the SA BOM were incredibly helpful, kind and 
willing to share information. we all enjoyed our time there and there was no 
tension of any sort whatsoever - anything we asked regarding anything got 
answered.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>anyway the site URL is <A 
href="http://sastorms.virtualave">http://sastorms.virtualave</A>.net/summaries.html</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2001 23:41:08 +1100
From: David Carroll <davidkc at nia.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.75 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        Weather Company <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: VIRUS - OFF TOPIC`
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

HI ALl. 

Just recvd another version of hahaha virus. The attached file is 
midgets.scr  So all be careful. 

Dave
Bathurst
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: New URL for BSCH
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 11:47:21 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Everyone,

For those that don't already know, BSCH now has a new URL

http://www.bsch.au.com

You will be forwarded from the old to the new URL for a few months, but if
you could update your bookmarks and links it would be much appreciated

With the new URL came a new server, which is hopefully much more reliable
and faster than the old simplenet one

In the move there was a complete reconstruction of the site, and there are
quite a few sections offline.  Please bare with me, these will be back
online within a few weeks

You will also see a link to "virtual chasing" throughout the site.  This
goes to

http://www.virtualchaser.com/index.shtml

Which is not online yet either! With a bit of luck it'll be up and running
by April

This site will contain links to weather webcams throughout the world and a
gallery of spectacular storms seen on webcams yadda yadda yadda

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Early Thunderstorm
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 06:51:03 +1100
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Early thunderstorm through here at 12.20am. Short and sharp storm with 7.4mm
recorded in approx 15 minutes with a wind gust before the storm of 53kmh
from the NW.
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Rope Cloud.
Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2001 23:05:45 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Hi all.
Did anybody see the spectacular rope cloud feature extending from almost the
coast of WA across SA this afternoon and then almost to western NSW, appears
to be a  a region of confluence along the line , other reasons may be a
gravity wave or complex outflow from the cloud band to the south?.The cloud
type seems to be mid to high level,any other ideas out there please reply.
regards Clyve Herbert.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms and MSLP...
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 09:28:16 +1100
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Glad to report another a brief but heavy thunderstorm in Melbourne (actually
Box Hill) this morning at the un-godly hour of 5am. Makes for "2" in 6
days... Unfortunately precipitation was on the light side, with only ~5mm in
10 minutes, making for a total of 8mm for the night. Things are still very
sticky ATM, however, so there is some hope that we may see some further
rain/thunderies as the day goes on - the major trough line is still to cross
the SA-Victorian border.

BTW went for a long walk last night before the rain and was really struck by
how desperately dry it is getting around parts of Melbourne. We have only
received 120mm (in Box Hill) in the past four months, against an average of
240mm (for the CBD site the figures are 88mm and 194mm), while temperatures
have been extremely warm since early November (running around 2-3C above
normal). Many large trees around town are starting to loose foliage due to
the combination of heat and moisture stress, while some smaller trees/bushes
have lost all their leaves or died completely. If we don't get some serious
rain soon, things are not going to look pretty.

Meanwhile, the latest MSLP chart is one for the collector book. I can't
recall (though my memory isn't always the best) such a large area of sub
1000hPa pressures across Australia's tropics in a long long time - and two
986hPa lows to boot (TC Vincent, and ex-TC Winsome). There is also an
interesting looking depression of 999hPa in the Coral Sea. One gets the
feeling that the next few days are going to be very wet and windy for large
areas of Northern Australia.

Cheers,

David.

                  
                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Virus
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 00:13:51 -0000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Everyone:

You should be all right with this one if:

you've got the Windows scripting host turned off *or* you're running Lookout
Express 5.5 or later. It acts like the dreaded Hybris (Kak-worm) virus -
doesn't need you to open any attachments to activate as it exploits a
security flaw in earlier versions of Outlook. Once activated though it
modifies the windsock32 dll - then it spreads by attaching itself to email.

The update is approx 45Mb - ok if youve got cable - else it's off a pc based
cover CDROM (do you get these in Oz - ?)

Netscape Communicator / Qualcomm users need not worry unless you forward it.

I prefer my hail tennis ball sized ((:

Les

Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
StormCam:
http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
ICQ: 17296776
----- Original Message -----
From: "Carolyn" <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient: at centinal.netcentral.com.au;>
Sent: Monday, February 12, 2001 11:22 PM
Subject: aus-wx: New Virus


> Hi,
>
> I thought you might find this intersting, especially for all those Tennis
> fans out there!!!!!
>
> Anna virus rushes the Net
>
> A virus posing as a photo of Russian
> tennis player Anna Kournikova is spreading
> aggressively, as major security companies
> rush to update their antivirus software to
> detect the fast-spreading e-mail virus.
> February 12, 2001, 10:00 a.m. PT
> http://two.digital.cnet.com/cgi-bin2/flo?y=eBVA08Siw0U0aSeK
>
>
> Carolyn
>
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [144.132.32.209]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Early storms in Melb
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 11:35:15 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Feb 2001 00:35:16.0070 (UTC) FILETIME=[D5A7A860:01C09554]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all.

I too was awoken at an ungodly hour of the morning (4:30 I think.  Too 
bloody early!)

Some nice LOUD thunder and some light rain.  I got up and realised the 
computer was still on, and so fired up the internet.

There was some widespread lightning activity, though not very strong, across 
the state, with most of the main stuff along the NSW/VIC border.

Radar revealed a lot of small, isloated cells with low precip tracking SE.  
The border region had a lot more cells, which were lined up one after the 
other.

The storm we had here in Donvale (eastern suburbs) showed some yellow 
regions and for one frame had some green.  I'm unsure as to how much rain 
fell, because I didn't have the gauge out last night.

We may get a few more storms come through today.

Liam
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: slow emails.
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 09:15:32 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all.
Since we are back on the old list my emails are taking up to 8 hours for a
round trip any reason for this?.With such slow performance any weather event
in need of rapid sending will be next to worthless can we improve this I
hope so.regards Clyve Herbert....

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Damien Howes" <dhowes at flatrate.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rope Cloud.
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 11:46:17 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
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Hello Clive, I noticed the line of cloud you described. Looking at 4km
resolution vis sat imagery, it appears to be a line of cumulus, with the
larger Cu's along the line itself with smaller ones immediately to its
north. When animated, the Sat pics show the line developed rapidly between
about 0330utc and 0430utc. A small area of Cb's developed along the NW end
of the line near the WA coast. As there is virtually no cloud between the
line and the major mid/high level cloud area to the south and with it being
perfectly parallel to this cloud area I'm wondering if there was marked
subsidence to the immediate north of the mid/high level cloud area in
responce to the jet. This may have resulted in an outflow region which
culminated in the line of confluence and Cu's... Just a thought....?.....
Damien.
----- Original Message -----
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 12, 2001 11:05 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Rope Cloud.


> Hi all.
> Did anybody see the spectacular rope cloud feature extending from almost
the
> coast of WA across SA this afternoon and then almost to western NSW,
appears
> to be a  a region of confluence along the line , other reasons may be a
> gravity wave or complex outflow from the cloud band to the south?.The
cloud
> type seems to be mid to high level,any other ideas out there please reply.
> regards Clyve Herbert.
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 13:18:33 +1100 (AEDT)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Criterion Change in SH
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Carl,

First of all I better bash out a bit of a disclaimer - these views are my
own and not meant to represent official BoM policy.

Like any definition, its a bit arbitrary and I think there are certainly
advantages of either one. It would certainly make it easier to name
something as soon as you had a reliable obs above gale force somewhere
near it. 

But you end up getting down to which winds you associate with the cyclone,
and which are associated with the environment. From a scientific point of
view, I like the current definition as it tends to eliminate cases where
gales are produced on the periphery by strong gradients between the
systems and highs to the south, which really cannot be attributed to the
system itself. I believe it also is a fairly good indicator of what is a
self sustaining system, which after all is what a TC is (by definition,
lol). 

By the "one quadrant" definition, we would have had to name the
system that formed off the Gold Coast on the 18th January this year, and I
really can't see any benefit this would have brought about. The severe
weather warning we had out covered it nicely. I guess the thing you want
with TCs is public awareness that this thing could get a lot worse than
just producing gales - that cannot be said of the gold coast system. 

I should add that warnings WERE out for the Gulf system even though it
didn't have a name for a while there. I am pretty comfortable with how it
was handled really.

Just my thoughts!!

Jonty.

____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au

Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office
295 Ann Street
Brisbane  Qld   4000
Australia

Ph +61 7 3239 8700

____________________________________________________________________

On Mon, 12 Feb 2001, Carl Smith wrote:

> Hi All.
> 
> In view of the recent TC Winsome (08P) discussions by Paul, Jonty, Jane,
> and others on the aus-wx list, I think some of you will find the message
> pasted here is interesting. I recieved it from Gary Padgett who prepares
> the Global Monthly Tropical Cyclone Summaries I post here.
> 
> >Here's an excerpt from a letter to Mark Lander and some others from Steve
> >Ready of the New Zealand Met Service.  This concerns a change to the
> >basic definition of a tropical cyclone in WMO Region 5 (Australia and
> >the South Pacific) (one which I concur with).
> >
> >>At the WMO RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee in Rarotonga, September 2000 the
> >>definition of tropical cyclone was changed to bring it into line with what
> >>happens in other basins. The requirement for gale force winds to wrap all
> >>the way round the centre before a tropical depression was upgraded to
> >>tropical cyclone was dropped. In the past, the enforcement of this
> >>requirement had seen a number of cyclones well on the way to becoming a
> >>hurricane before they were given a name. Hopefully, now that the threshold
> >>is not as strict as before, any resultant tropical cyclones will be named
> >>before the development gets too far advanced.  This change to the
> >>definition will also speed up the transition from monsoon depression to
> >>tropical cyclone.
> 
> Applying this standard would probably have resulted in TC Winsome being
> named rather earlier (which would probably satisfy Paul and some others),
> and could also result in some of the hybrid systems that develop from time
> to time off the Central or SE Qld coast to be named systems (which would
> require the overworked and understaffed BoM to issue extra cyclone warnings
> and to make some changes in the public cyclone education material).
> 
> I look forward to seeing any BoM response to this.
> 
> Regards,
> Carl.
> 
> 
> 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 15:03:08 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: STA for south NSW
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

STA for south NSW, just had a really nice TCU shoot up over Burwood
(inner west sydney), but i collapsed :(

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1423 on Tuesday the 13th of February 2001

This advice affects people in the following weather districts:

South West Slopes
Southern Tablelands
South Coast

Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some
of
these are expected to be severe bringing damaging winds.

Matt Smith

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms on south coast
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 18:12:44 +1100
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Appears to be a line of thunderstorms associated with a S/SE wind change
coming up the coast. Moruya obs' say S winds at 5pm.

Visual observations from southern Illawarra shows a rather distinct line
where the highly capped environment gives way to rapidly developing, but
weakish looking Cb's, at a guess from Nowra southwards, but edging closer.

If we do not lose to much heat and the wind stays humid NE we could get a
show here later this evening, even Sydney has a chance.

Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Orange, Forbes Storms 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5  September 22, 2000
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 18:22:56 +1100
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6.20pm 13/02

Just receiving reports of outages in Orange area, also  Forbes lightning
strikes hitting poles.

Had phone calls in from Sydney also advising power outages.

Dave
Bathurst

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 19:24:20 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Darwin waterspouts
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Evening all,

For those of you who can't access the yahoogroups site for one reason or
another, Paul Mossman has kindly given me permission to put the pics of
the waterspouts up on a webpage for all to see....and believe me, they
are worth seeing!!!!

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/darwinspouts.htm

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Patrick Tobin" <patricktobin at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Canberra storm
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 19:31:37 +1100
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Hi all,

After some northern hemisphere snow chasing, it was nice to be back for a
bit of action in Canberra.

The storm came through between 5 and 6pm and resulted in flash flooding and
quite a few trees down ( the National Botanic Gardens have been closed until
further notice whilst felled trees are removed and others assessed for
public safety).

The storms were part of a NW-SE band that moved up from the SW. Whilst the
band was moving to the NE, cells within the band were moving rapidly along
the band from the NW to the SE (hope this makes sense). There was a very
impressive lowering that almost touched the ground over central Canberra -
but try as hard as I could to see rotation, none was evident.

The band has moved very rapidly away. Conditions remain quite warm and humid
behind the line (temp of 24, DP of 19) and the models suggest more activity
is possible tomorrow as the SE surge arrives late in the day. Looking
forward to it.

Patrick

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: NinnesM at franklins.com.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: STA for south NSW
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 15:31:28 +1100
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Are you ok Matt?   :))


Malcolm Ninnes
Unix Systems Admin
National Technical Services - Franklins Ltd
Ph. (02) 9722-1862
ninnesm at franklins.com.au

> ----------
> From: 	Matt Smith[SMTP:tornado at bigpond.net.au]
> Sent: 	Tuesday, 13 February 2001 15:03
> To: 	aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: 	aus-wx: STA for south NSW
> 
> STA for south NSW, just had a really nice TCU shoot up over Burwood
> (inner west sydney), but i collapsed :(
> 
> TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
> 
> SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
> BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
> Issued at 1423 on Tuesday the 13th of February 2001
> 
> This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
> 
> South West Slopes
> Southern Tablelands
> South Coast
> 
> Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some
> of
> these are expected to be severe bringing damaging winds.
> 
> Matt Smith
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [198.142.93.129]
From: "Shaun Whelan" <wheelsthepusser at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms on south coast
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 20:21:06 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Feb 2001 09:21:06.0880 (UTC) FILETIME=[4B673400:01C0959E]
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<x-flowed>
    No such luck Michael, it's just me here in Nowra lobbing tomatoes 
Northwards again.
                  Shaun


>From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: Storms on south coast
>Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 18:12:44 +1100
>
>Appears to be a line of thunderstorms associated with a S/SE wind change
>coming up the coast. Moruya obs' say S winds at 5pm.
>
>Visual observations from southern Illawarra shows a rather distinct line
>where the highly capped environment gives way to rapidly developing, but
>weakish looking Cb's, at a guess from Nowra southwards, but edging closer.
>
>If we do not lose to much heat and the wind stays humid NE we could get a
>show here later this evening, even Sydney has a chance.
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://ozthunder.com
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Bathurst Storm 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5  September 22, 2000
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 21:01:12 +1100
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8.44pm, 13/02

Well,, Bathurst finally got some rain.. At this present time have extremely
heavy rain and 3-4 flashes of lighting a
second. We have drop outs fuses all around Orange, Blayney, Springhill,
Springterrace, Milthorpe.  Currently lightning around S of Bathurst ,
Perthville, Rockley, very constant as GPATS advises.

Dave
Bathurst

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <snowfall at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bathurst Storm 
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 21:50:35 +1100
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Hi Dave,

Yeah, we had some decent rain and thunder too, although it was earlier on in
the evening, say 7:30pm. One bolt of lightning struck very close, flashing
and banging right over our place. I was standing on the back verandah
(covered) at the time and it gave me a pretty big fright.



Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: <davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 13, 2001 9:01 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Bathurst Storm


> 8.44pm, 13/02
>
> Well,, Bathurst finally got some rain.. At this present time have
extremely
> heavy rain and 3-4 flashes of lighting a
> second. We have drop outs fuses all around Orange, Blayney, Springhill,
> Springterrace, Milthorpe.  Currently lightning around S of Bathurst ,
> Perthville, Rockley, very constant as GPATS advises.
>
> Dave
> Bathurst
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Darwin waterspouts
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 20:38:04 +0930
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Many thanks to Jane for doing that......

BTW - Darwin weather lately has been kicking butt!!!! It has been cyclonic
weather - trees down, vegetation everywhere, torrential rain and very
squally winds have made life wonderful!!

Paul

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fwd: Lismore Floods and Education
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 16:55:45 GMT
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On Tue, 06 Feb 2001 08:50:31 +1100, Michael Bath
<mbath at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

>Does anyone have more information on this Australian Height Datum ?
>Why do BoM warnings no include rising or falling indicators anymore?
>
Michael, a search at http://www.google.com/ for "australian height
datum flood" revealed numerous listings, though mostly individual
councils in flood-prone areas getting to grips with the new system.
Auslig has a brief explanation at
http://www.auslig.gov.au/geodesy/datums/ahd.htm, and a search on their
site may reveal more. The Queensland Bureau's excellent flood warning
site at
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/inside/flood/brochures/qld/fld_qld.shtml
makes the following reference to AHD:


    Each river height can be converted to its equivalent on Australian
Height Datum (AHD) by applying the AHD value of the gauge zero.
                             Contact the Bureau of Meteorology if this
is required. 

I don't know of anything for NSW on the Bureau site beyond the daily
river heights bulletin. However the Manly Hydraulics Laboratory has a
website at http://www.mhl.nsw.gov.au/www/indexmap.html which allows
you to access very useful river level and telemetered hourly rainfall
information for coastal NSW via a rather laborious series of maps. The
hourly rainfall information is worth perservering for. The NSW Dept of
Land and Water Conservation's Water Information Site at
http://waterinfo.dlwc.nsw.gov.au/ covers the whole state (though the
coastal area is less informative than Manly's), and has just
introduced a terrific real-time interactive java section at
http://waterinfo.dlwc.nsw.gov.au/riis/riis.html that should be
explored by anyone with an interesting in flooding. It, too, requires
patience, and a late model browser helps the java.

The Qld Bureau flood warning site should be a model for other states,
but I believe it is the work of one keen individual and there are no
plans to replicate it elsewhere at present. Currently, the only other
state with a similarly interactive internet site that I'm aware of is
WA, where the Water and Rivers Commission is placing nicely presented
real-time telemetered river and rainfall information on the web. Their
homepage is at http://www.wrc.wa.gov.au/waterinf/ and the data is at
http://www.wrc.wa.gov.au/waterinf/telem/contents.htm. I keep a list of
useful river/flood links at
http://www.australianweathernews.com/current_rivers.html, or follow
the index page links to Current and Recent Weather --> Flood and River
Levels.

I don't know why the NSW Bureau isn't including rising/falling
indicators any more -- they used to state rising, falling or steady.
Perhaps it's a product of the increasing computerisation of their
river level output. Unfortunately, although you can tell from two
observations whether the river has risen or fallen, you can't tell
what it's doing at the time of the latest observation unless you have
an observer or two observations taken only a short time apart. Perhaps
they just haven't got around to programming for this element yet --
their conversion to the new format is pretty recent.

I'd be interested to know from those in Victoria, Tas, SA and NT of
any developments in river-monitoring websites in their areas.

Cheers

-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Nathan Thompson" <naththo at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Lightning this early morning.
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 04:05:08 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have seen few lightning in the North and 
Northwest this morning. Only 6 all up I saw, not bad. Saw pinks on Adelaide 
local radar too.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>From Nathan.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="mailto:naththo at one.net.au">naththo at one.net.au</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://severestorm.tripod.com/index.html">http://severestorm.tripod.com/index.html</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Catherine" <faerinelda at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning this early morning.
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 06:20:07 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond>regarding lightning and early morning storms...there 
was a doozy going over (i think) Tyabb (or even more&nbsp;north but not much) in 
Vic at about 5am yesterday (12/02/01) </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond>okies have fun</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond>Cath</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Originating-IP: [203.29.156.4]
From: "T Middleton" <anvil_industries at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NEW PHOTOS from last Thursdays storms in Vic.
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 19:45:48 
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Feb 2001 19:45:48.0358 (UTC) FILETIME=[901ADE60:01C095F5]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
hi everyone,
i've put some photos and a brief report up of the storms in southern Vic. 
last Thursday.
for viewing ease i recomend that you DO NOT close down that annoying pop up 
ad banner,simply minimise it until you have finished browsing.

http://www.crosswinds.net/~anvils/Feb.8.storms.htm

Enjoy  :-)


regards TM
http://www.crosswinds.net/~anvils

_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Chasing in Europe
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 20:47:34 -0000
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dave,

I've also posted this to aussieweather.

The statement that "europe doesn't get severe weather" is a myth. The word
"supercell" was coined by K.A. Browning in the early 1960's after extensive
observer and radar study of the Wokingham (southern England!) 'severe right'
(meaning right mover) hailstorm of 1959 which was in todays language a
forward flank updraught HP supercell. KA Browning no longer does it in the
core I believe,  he has moved on to conveyor belts but still does weather.

Subscribe to news://uk.sci.weather

That's better. You'll now be sick of reading about bloody snow.

Then look at: http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk


Although we don't get all-Australian storms (: where the golfball hail mixes
with the Jacobs Creek or plasters the chasers up the Hunter Valley we can
and *do* get our share of action but.....

OK this is what to expect in the US of Europe:

UK: April - May, heavy showers and pulse storms possible. Tornadic? Always
that chance of what Les Lemon calls landspouts (non-supercellular),
especially along the south coast.  Hail? Again, always a chance and large
hail (H4) at that. Cold fronts and line squalls are always worth a look -
watch for narrow bands of high intensity rain on radar:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather. A bit early in the year for MCS / MCC /
supercell action. The UK is due a big event. There are several corridors in
the UK where major action occurs, the UK's own Tornado Alley - the south
coast of the UK from Southampton to Dover, the area in the A38 corridor
between Birmingham and Derby (and extending to Lincoln) and the Vale of York
(M62 corridor between Ferrybridge and Hull). Great Britain is anomolous when
it comes to the shortlived F0-F1-F2 (T0-T5) tornado with far, far more of
these than the rest of Europe combined. Severe weather can happen anytime
but chasing is an expensive business in Britain due to the high cost of fuel
(3 times more than in Oz) and it can be difficult due to the poor and
congested road network and lack of real data although the latter is
changing.
SPAIN: The rain in spain falls mainly on the plain with CAPEs at 2500 there
is more than likely rather more going on than severe pulse but the
population lives mainly on the costas so major events go unreported but
there can be telltale V shapes on satellite! Doswell did a study of Central
Spain.
HOLLAND: Again a bit early for real action but like the UK. 2-3 supercells
in a good year must be all that flat stuff.
FRANCE: Central France for MCS / MCC / supercell in summer. Again a bit
early. Watch squalls and satpix.
SWITZERLAND: Supercell Central and in the Alps of all places at least 3 or 4
events reported each year but again june-july-august is more likely.
NORTHERN ITALY: No-one quite knows but indications are it's like a miniture
Great Plains with conditions and airmasses very similar. The Italian
Government plays down tornadic supercell events to the extent of denial.
THEY DO HAPPEN! Three reported by chasers in 2000 with golfball hail and
BRICK buildings demolished (T8) Again a summertime phenomenon. I believe
Jimmy Deguara spent some time in Malta going loopy over the ACCAS - he was
too far south...

I'd place my bets on the UK, Holland and Central France in April - May
shifting to the UK, France, Holland, Germany, Switzerland and Northern Italy
in summer.

I don't use the Fujita scale: http://www.torro.org.uk/tnintens.htm

Les


Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts, TORRO, MSC & ASWA members
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
StormCam:
http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
ICQ: 17296776

----- Original Message -----
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: <les.crossan at virgin.net>
Sent: Tuesday, February 13, 2001 6:08 AM
Subject: Chasing in Europe


> Hi Les!!
> My name's Dave Ellem and I'm a storm chaser in NE NSW in Oz! I love
chasing
> storms ALOT!! Anyway, I'm heading over to the UK and France and Italy (and
> other places breifly) and would love to do an overseas storm chase. I too
> belived that Europe didn't get storms and thought I would be dreaming to
see
> a storm over there but have been told otherwise (supercells in Italy???).
> Anyway, Do you get storms in these counties between mid April to the end
of
> May? Just curious so I know to lookout while over there. Any information
> would be gretly appreciated!!! Thanks
>
> Reguards, Dave Ellem
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 05:45:15 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning this early morning.
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Les, 
I could be naughty and say a "doozy"  means it's a "bottler" or 
a "ripper", but I'd better do the right thing and let you know it's a 
common Australian word for anything that is really impressive or 
exciting.  If the subject of the conversation is already understood, we 
throw in the word "doozy" instead of the regular noun - that way we don't 
have to try to think of a long list of adjectives.

Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672



-----Original Message-----
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 20:34:26 -0000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning this early morning.

> What's a doozy????
> 
> Les
> Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
> Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
> Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts
> http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
> StormCam:
> http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
> ICQ: 17296776
>   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   From: Catherine 
>   To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
>   Sent: Tuesday, February 13, 2001 7:20 PM
>   Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning this early morning.
> 
> 
>   regarding lightning and early morning storms...there was a doozy
> going over (i think) Tyabb (or even more north but not much) in Vic at
> about 5am yesterday (12/02/01) 
> 
>   okies have fun
>   Cath
> 


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 09:11:07 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Miguel de Salas <mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Chasing in Europe
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<x-flowed>
At 07:47 AM 2/14/01, you wrote:
>SPAIN: The rain in spain falls mainly on the plain with CAPEs at 2500 there
>is more than likely rather more going on than severe pulse but the
>population lives mainly on the costas so major events go unreported but
>there can be telltale V shapes on satellite! Doswell did a study of Central
>Spain.

This is a rather simplistic view of Spain. While much of the population 
does live near the coast, the density inland is quite high.

I have experienced severe thunderstorms in Madrid, with hail to golfball 
size on occasions, and larger once or twice. I have also watched stationary 
thunderstorms for hours on end, simply propagating themselves on the same 
spot as the spent cloud moves away, dumping unbeliveable amounts of hail 
and rain in a very localised spot.

The east coast, especially Valencia, where the population density is very 
high, gets its fair share of severe flash floods every autumn from 
thunderstorm activity.

I think the above quoted paragraph should say "but the pommy tourists visit 
mainly the costa  del sol, which gets the most boring weather in southern 
Europe... :)"
Miguel de Salas

School of Plant Science
University of Tasmania
GPO Box 252-55
Hobart
TAS 7001
Australia

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning this early morning.
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 22:18:09 -0000
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Would have understood a bottler or ripper!!

Lucky you lot. We've had zilch.

Cheers - Les

(:


Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
StormCam:
http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
ICQ: 17296776

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Chasing in Europe
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 22:38:38 -0000
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I deliberatly kept it simple - after all I did mention the Doswell study
about severe weather events in the western Med.

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~doswell/mallorca_papers/simulations.html

I'm not a pom (born in Dunfermline, Scotland - 56N 2W) and have visited
Spain - inland and have seen golfball hail at Madrid -  and have never been
near the costas.

Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
StormCam:
http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
ICQ: 17296776
----- Original Message -----
From: "Miguel de Salas" <mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 13, 2001 10:11 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Chasing in Europe


> At 07:47 AM 2/14/01, you wrote:
> >SPAIN: The rain in spain falls mainly on the plain with CAPEs at 2500
there
> >is more than likely rather more going on than severe pulse but the
> >population lives mainly on the costas so major events go unreported but
> >there can be telltale V shapes on satellite! Doswell did a study of
Central
> >Spain.
>
> This is a rather simplistic view of Spain. While much of the population
> does live near the coast, the density inland is quite high.
>
> I have experienced severe thunderstorms in Madrid, with hail to golfball
> size on occasions, and larger once or twice. I have also watched
stationary
> thunderstorms for hours on end, simply propagating themselves on the same
> spot as the spent cloud moves away, dumping unbeliveable amounts of hail
> and rain in a very localised spot.
>
> The east coast, especially Valencia, where the population density is very
> high, gets its fair share of severe flash floods every autumn from
> thunderstorm activity.
>
> I think the above quoted paragraph should say "but the pommy tourists
visit
> mainly the costa  del sol, which gets the most boring weather in southern
> Europe... :)"
> Miguel de Salas
>
> School of Plant Science
> University of Tasmania
> GPO Box 252-55
> Hobart
> TAS 7001
> Australia
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: doozy..
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 11:27:44 +1100
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>What's a doozy????
>
>Les

Probably the best substitute for this word is "ripper" but you English
people may associated that with Jack (as in The... :-) - sorry couldn't help
that one!). According to the trusty http://www.dictionary.com a doozie or
doozy is "Something extraordinary or bizarre".

On things meteorological, the evolution of ex-TC Winsome and TC Vincent make
for interesting viewing. At this stage Vincent is appears to be loosing out
having lost its upper cloud shield,  while (despite model predictions
yesterday) the ex-TC continues to spin on over land producing 3 figure
rainfall totals for its fourth day in a row. The progs now suggest these
system may dumb-bell/cartwheel around each other later today with Winsome
moving westward to the south, and Vincent eastwards to the north, eventually
these systems look like merging over the Kimberly region or near the NW
coast, though exactly where and how remains a good question. Cloud and
moisture from these systems now covers about 1/3 of Australia, and should
make for a wet coming week over large areas.

Meanwhile, the gulf and Coral Sea are worth watching with a couple
persistent convective structures, showing signes of organisation.

Cheers,

David
                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Chasing in Europe
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 11:43:30 +1100
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Hi all
I spent about 6 weeks in Europe in 1988 (May/June) most of the time in
Hungary,there were numerous storms and in Hungary I counted 7 storm days
over 14 days, ( Eastern Hungary) ,some of which were severe with marble hail
and flash flooding, squall lines and good strong rain free bases at the back
end of severe multicells. The plains area east of Austria are a great place
for chasing with many roads all sealed ,I think this area is strongly
underrated for storm activity and their potential.Another remarkably
frequent storm area is southern Germany and most of the Swiss and Austrian
Alps region.....regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Miguel de Salas <mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 14, 2001 9:11 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Chasing in Europe


> At 07:47 AM 2/14/01, you wrote:
> >SPAIN: The rain in spain falls mainly on the plain with CAPEs at 2500
there
> >is more than likely rather more going on than severe pulse but the
> >population lives mainly on the costas so major events go unreported but
> >there can be telltale V shapes on satellite! Doswell did a study of
Central
> >Spain.
>
> This is a rather simplistic view of Spain. While much of the population
> does live near the coast, the density inland is quite high.
>
> I have experienced severe thunderstorms in Madrid, with hail to golfball
> size on occasions, and larger once or twice. I have also watched
stationary
> thunderstorms for hours on end, simply propagating themselves on the same
> spot as the spent cloud moves away, dumping unbeliveable amounts of hail
> and rain in a very localised spot.
>
> The east coast, especially Valencia, where the population density is very
> high, gets its fair share of severe flash floods every autumn from
> thunderstorm activity.
>
> I think the above quoted paragraph should say "but the pommy tourists
visit
> mainly the costa  del sol, which gets the most boring weather in southern
> Europe... :)"
> Miguel de Salas
>
> School of Plant Science
> University of Tasmania
> GPO Box 252-55
> Hobart
> TAS 7001
> Australia
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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X-Originating-IP: [152.91.8.254]
From: "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra storm
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 11:49:55 +1100
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<x-html>
<html>
<DIV>
<P>Hello All</P>
<P>Yeah, like Patrick I'm back from the Northern Hemisphere, snow chasing, and the storm in Canberra was quite welcome.</P>
<P>It was the first time I've had the chance to observe a storm after it passed over from the west, to the east, as it headed towards the coast, and see in its full glory, the structure of the cloud etc.</P>
<P>Civic (where the Botanic Garden is), which is north of here (Woden) apparently had more action and this seemed to be reflected in the structure of the cloud observed heading towards the east, after the storm.</P>
<P>By this I mean the northern edge of the storm, which passed over Civic, appeared to have an upper cloud peak (terminology?) which was still bubbling and boiling away, while the southern end of the storm had reached its peak/maturation, and showed some flat anvil characteristics.</P>
<P>To my untutored eye, this continual development, at the northern end coincided with the tree damage and more intense rainfall over Civic and the botanic gardens, compared with more benign circumstances, here at Woden.</P>
<P>There was no hail here in Woden, but a colleague heading up the Tuggeranong Parkway, had here windscreen chipped by hail.</P>
<P>I didn't see any rotation either (probably wouldn't recognise it if I saw it anyway!) but there was a rather odd looking gap/hole in the cloud just before the precipitation.&nbsp; Don't know if this was significant.</P>
<P>All in all an interesting event for a storm starved Canberran.<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: &quot;Patrick Tobin&quot;<PATRICKTOBIN at OZEMAIL.COM.AU> 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: &quot;Aussie-wx&quot;<AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM> 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: Canberra storm 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 19:31:37 +1100 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Hi all, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;After some northern hemisphere snow chasing, it was nice to be back for a 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;bit of action in Canberra. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;The storm came through between 5 and 6pm and resulted in flash flooding and 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;quite a few trees down ( the National Botanic Gardens have been closed until 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;further notice whilst felled trees are removed and others assessed for 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;public safety). 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;The storms were part of a NW-SE band that moved up from the SW. Whilst the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;band was moving to the NE, cells within the band were moving rapidly along 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the band from the NW to the SE (hope this makes sense). There was a very 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;impressive lowering that almost touched the ground over central Canberra - 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;but try as hard as I could to see rotation, none was evident. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;The band has moved very rapidly away. Conditions remain quite warm and humid 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;behind the line (temp of 24, DP of 19) and the models suggest more activity 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;is possible tomorrow as the SE surge arrives late in the day. Looking 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;forward to it. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Patrick 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
<DIV></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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</x-html>
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 13:44:28 +1100
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TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1322 on Wednesday the 14th of February 2001

This advice affects people in the following weather districts:

Central Tablelands
Hunter west of a line Merriwa/Singleton/Wisemans Ferry
Southern Tablelands north of the ACT

Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of
these are expected to be severe bringing  damaging winds, very heavy
rainfall and large hailstones.

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From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Bathurst Downpour 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 14:44:59 +1100
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2.40pm 14/02.

About 10 min ago very heavy rain started in Bathurst, getting from carpark
back to work i was drenched in seconds..  Small amount of thunder around
also.

By the looks of radar the storm is going past.

Dave
Bathurst

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms on south coast
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 18:04:44 +1100
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Hi Shuan

The line split just south of Ulladulla, with the coastal storms heading
seaward and a smaller line left from Goulburn back towards Orange, very poor
manners from them I thought.

MIchael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Shaun Whelan" <wheelsthepusser at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, 13 February 2001 20:21
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms on south coast


>     No such luck Michael, it's just me here in Nowra lobbing tomatoes
> Northwards again.
>                   Shaun
>
>
> >From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: aus-wx: Storms on south coast
> >Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 18:12:44 +1100
> >
> >Appears to be a line of thunderstorms associated with a S/SE wind change
> >coming up the coast. Moruya obs' say S winds at 5pm.
> >
> >Visual observations from southern Illawarra shows a rather distinct line
> >where the highly capped environment gives way to rapidly developing, but
> >weakish looking Cb's, at a guess from Nowra southwards, but edging
closer.
> >
> >If we do not lose to much heat and the wind stays humid NE we could get a
> >show here later this evening, even Sydney has a chance.
> >
> >Michael Thompson
> >http://ozthunder.com
> >
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Darwin conditions.....
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 17:38:42 +0930
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Hi all - another savage squall line has just hit Darwin. Squally winds, very
heavy rain has caused numerous accidents and flooding of many main roads.

I must say - I love this monsoonal weather!!

Paul.

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Michael
Thompson
Sent: Wednesday, 14 February 2001 4:35 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms on south coast


Hi Shuan

The line split just south of Ulladulla, with the coastal storms heading
seaward and a smaller line left from Goulburn back towards Orange, very poor
manners from them I thought.

MIchael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Shaun Whelan" <wheelsthepusser at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, 13 February 2001 20:21
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms on south coast


>     No such luck Michael, it's just me here in Nowra lobbing tomatoes
> Northwards again.
>                   Shaun
>
>
> >From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: aus-wx: Storms on south coast
> >Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 18:12:44 +1100
> >
> >Appears to be a line of thunderstorms associated with a S/SE wind change
> >coming up the coast. Moruya obs' say S winds at 5pm.
> >
> >Visual observations from southern Illawarra shows a rather distinct line
> >where the highly capped environment gives way to rapidly developing, but
> >weakish looking Cb's, at a guess from Nowra southwards, but edging
closer.
> >
> >If we do not lose to much heat and the wind stays humid NE we could get a
> >show here later this evening, even Sydney has a chance.
> >
> >Michael Thompson
> >http://ozthunder.com
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 19:29:31 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin conditions.....
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Let me remind you of the approaching DRY SEASON ! hehehe

Large storms at the moment in the hunter, appears to be a bow echo on a storm
just to
the west of singleton on williamtown local radar., red on radar, warning for the
area is out.

Matt Smith

Paul Mossman wrote:

> Hi all - another savage squall line has just hit Darwin. Squally winds, very
> heavy rain has caused numerous accidents and flooding of many main roads.
>
> I must say - I love this monsoonal weather!!
>
> Paul.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Michael
> Thompson
> Sent: Wednesday, 14 February 2001 4:35 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms on south coast
>
> Hi Shuan
>
> The line split just south of Ulladulla, with the coastal storms heading
> seaward and a smaller line left from Goulburn back towards Orange, very poor
> manners from them I thought.
>
> MIchael
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Shaun Whelan" <wheelsthepusser at hotmail.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, 13 February 2001 20:21
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms on south coast
>
> >     No such luck Michael, it's just me here in Nowra lobbing tomatoes
> > Northwards again.
> >                   Shaun
> >
> >
> > >From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
> > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > >Subject: aus-wx: Storms on south coast
> > >Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 18:12:44 +1100
> > >
> > >Appears to be a line of thunderstorms associated with a S/SE wind change
> > >coming up the coast. Moruya obs' say S winds at 5pm.
> > >
> > >Visual observations from southern Illawarra shows a rather distinct line
> > >where the highly capped environment gives way to rapidly developing, but
> > >weakish looking Cb's, at a guess from Nowra southwards, but edging
> closer.
> > >
> > >If we do not lose to much heat and the wind stays humid NE we could get a
> > >show here later this evening, even Sydney has a chance.
> > >
> > >Michael Thompson
> > >http://ozthunder.com
> > >
> > >
> > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > _________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Chasing in Europe
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 08:50:34 -0000
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clyve (and the list)

Indeed it seems to be Switzerland where it all happens - and they've got
doppler!

3 supercell events in 2000 one of which was studied intently and an abstract
/ talk about it in the European Severe Weather Conference.

After that Northern Italy - at the top of the 'leg' - also noted for severe
weather.

Most of Central Europe can 'let go', though!

For tornadoes there's only one place really though ..... (:

Les

Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
StormCam:
http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
ICQ: 17296776
----- Original Message -----
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 14, 2001 12:43 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Chasing in Europe



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 21:52:41 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Met books
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Evening all,

I've decided that my bookshelf needs another couple of met books (so
it's a late Christmas present to me <g>).  I'd like to know what books
other people have in their libraries & which they think are the 'best'
(ok, so define best?????) - I'm allowing myself a couple of hundred
dollars so I can afford 1 or 2 or 3......

Thoughts would all be greatly appreciated.

Many thanks,

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: mjd at iinet.net.au
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 18:55:47 +0800
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Met books
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Hi Jane,

I rescently got one of Howard B, Bluestien's book's " Tornado Alley " i 
think it is called. I purchused it through Amazon.com and recieved it 
about a week after i placed the order. It is a very good read and is more 
technical orientated. Should should enjoy the Read :-D.

MJ.


> Evening all,
> 
> I've decided that my bookshelf needs another couple of met books (so
> it's a late Christmas present to me <g>).  I'd like to know what books
> other people have in their libraries & which they think are the 'best'
> (ok, so define best?????) - I'm allowing myself a couple of hundred
> dollars so I can afford 1 or 2 or 3......
> 
> Thoughts would all be greatly appreciated.
> 
> Many thanks,
> 
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> 
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> 
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
> 
> 
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> 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: chris.nitsopoulos at jcu.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Monsoon exploding
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 23:14:08 +1000 (AEST)
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Hey all

Amazing I reckon the drought is about to break. The monsoon is going off, a low 
is exploding in the Peninsula and moving East, a High is about to smash us with 
Easterlies. Charts are going off with predictions of rainfall exceeding 800mm 
over the next 5 days between Bowen and Cairns. Finally it is happening the wet 
season, is about to explode. The NW winds are at strong wind warning strength 
and a gale warning is being predicted in a 2 days for waters between Cooktown 
and Cardwell.

Below is an extract of a Tropical cyclone outlook issued By the Brissy BOM.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 3:55pm on Wednesday the 14th of February 2001

A tropical low located over Cape York Peninsula is expected to shift off the
east coast on Thursday. There is moderate potential for a tropical cyclone to
develop in this area during the next 3 days. 

If this doesnt develop in such perfect conditions I dont know what will

Cheers: Chris Nitso
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Joy Farnan" <jfarn at acepia.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: storms in Hunter Valley.
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 00:26:10 +1100
Organization: 
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Something rather nasty heading for Broome at the moment I believe
Hope it changes course!!!
Joy
----- Original Message -----
From: Carolyn <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 14, 2001 8:02 PM
Subject: aus-wx: storms in Hunter Valley.


> Matt,
>
> it is dark and overcast in Cessnock, thunder can be heard in the distance,
> but no other activity this way as yet....not unusual!!!!!!!
>
>
> > Large storms at the moment in the hunter, appears to be a bow echo on a
> storm
> > just to
> > the west of singleton on williamtown local radar., red on radar, warning
> for the
> > area is out.
>
> Yes it is going to be a good one for the area West of here.
>
> Carolyn
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Carolyn" <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: storms in Hunter Valley.
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 20:02:33 +1100
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Matt,

it is dark and overcast in Cessnock, thunder can be heard in the distance,
but no other activity this way as yet....not unusual!!!!!!!


> Large storms at the moment in the hunter, appears to be a bow echo on a
storm
> just to
> the west of singleton on williamtown local radar., red on radar, warning
for the
> area is out.

Yes it is going to be a good one for the area West of here.

Carolyn

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Desley Absolon" <mystyle at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy from Cairns in Far North Qld....WE
	 ARE BACK!!!!
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 08:19:41 +1000
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Forget Darwin - Cairns is the place to be...heh heh....

Constant drizzle since yesterday morning....heavy rain resulting in
localised flooding - right as school finished yesterday afternoon.   80mm
recorded since 9am yesterday.  Lots more on the way....and we have a
BUILDING business - hubby is NOT happy... but the frogs and I are delighted.
We are watching with bated breath. Cyclone Kit at the ready.  (Frogs have
been seen with ladders under their arms..lol, and the chooks are reported to
be ripping up Styrofoam for floaties - according to one local wag on talk
back radio recently)

The Bureau is forecasting on local radio, through their early morning cross
today,  that even without  the development of a full blown - ie: named TC,
the general public should expect heavy to flood rain and 40 knot gales by
Friday.  Most people up here don't get out of bed unless a cyclone is named,
so I guess this fuels the debate about timing and development required
before official warnings are distributed to the community at large.

Also a nice little intense area out near the Solomon's - 'Cyclone Sanctuary'
.... Could be interesting in a few days too.  At long last we have something
to get excited about up the 'pointy end'.

Stay tuned.

Desley in Cairns.

Desley Absolon

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of
chris.nitsopoulos at jcu.edu.au
Sent: Wednesday, 14 February 2001 11:14 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Monsoon exploding

Hey all

Amazing I reckon the drought is about to break. The monsoon is going off, a
low
is exploding in the Peninsula and moving East, a High is about to smash us
with
Easterlies. Charts are going off with predictions of rainfall exceeding
800mm
over the next 5 days between Bowen and Cairns. Finally it is happening the
wet
season, is about to explode. The NW winds are at strong wind warning
strength
and a gale warning is being predicted in a 2 days for waters between
Cooktown
and Cardwell.

Below is an extract of a Tropical cyclone outlook issued By the Brissy BOM.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 3:55pm on Wednesday the 14th of February 2001

A tropical low located over Cape York Peninsula is expected to shift off the
east coast on Thursday. There is moderate potential for a tropical cyclone
to
develop in this area during the next 3 days.

If this doesnt develop in such perfect conditions I dont know what will

Cheers: Chris Nitso
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.0.101.2]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin conditions.....
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 09:44:06 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 14 Feb 2001 22:44:07.0132 (UTC) FILETIME=[A37BF9C0:01C096D7]
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<x-flowed>
Interestingly, looking back over the current season in Sydney, we have yet 
to have a squall line as far as I can remember - certainly no 'savage squall 
lines'.


>From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin conditions.....
>Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 19:29:31 +1100
>
>Let me remind you of the approaching DRY SEASON ! hehehe
>
>Large storms at the moment in the hunter, appears to be a bow echo on a 
>storm
>just to
>the west of singleton on williamtown local radar., red on radar, warning 
>for the
>area is out.

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 13:17:07 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: Vincent now Cat 2
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Vincent is now Cat 2, 980 and headed for between Broome and Wallal

all info is at the BoM page under WA.

Matt Smith

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: drought and wet.
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 08:41:30 +1100
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>Hey all
>
>Amazing I reckon the drought is about to break. The monsoon is going off, a
low 
>is exploding in the Peninsula and moving East, a High is about to smash us
with 
>Easterlies. Charts are going off with predictions of rainfall exceeding
800mm 
>over the next 5 days between Bowen and Cairns. Finally it is happening the
wet 
>season, is about to explode. The NW winds are at strong wind warning
strength 
>and a gale warning is being predicted in a 2 days for waters between
Cooktown 
>and Cardwell.
>Cheers: Chris Nitso

Drought? you should come to Melbourne... our "dry" season has lasted four
years. That said, we are having a quite unusual warm rain event here in
Melbourne's near eastern suburbs at present with rainfall rates in
convergent bands of St/Sc with local embedded Cu approaching 10mm/hour.
Received 11mm in Box Hill, and expect that places a little closer in will
have seen 20+mm (seems to have been most intense about 5km east of CBD). I
am suspicious that this event is tied to the exceptionally warm state of
Port Phillip bay at the moment (given state wide rainfall is concentrated
around the northeast side of the bay), which has temperatures as high as
24C. Cloud tops are only at about 6000 feets which is unusually low for such
rainfall rates in Melbourne..... 

Hopefully this is all the start of more rain (and storms?) to come, with the
deep tropical moisture now embedded over most of inland Australia.

Cheers,

David


                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: mjd at iinet.net.au
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 13:22:42 +0800
X-Authentication-Warning: localhost.localdomain: web set sender to mjd at iinet.net.au using -f
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vincent now Cat 2
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Hi all,

Yeah looking at the current info from JTWC 
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/sh0901.gif
 it look's like Vincent will cross the coast pretty close to Wallal. JTWC 
also have it intensifing further slightly before it hit's the coast 
tomorrow avo sometime on current predictions made by JTWC. 
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/sh0901web.txt

About 55 knot gusts atm in the 142100 report as it makes landfall, but we 
will have to wait and see what happens in the next 24 hr's as anything is 
possible with TC's in that sort of time frame.

MJ, from a warm and humid Darwin.    


> 
> Vincent is now Cat 2, 980 and headed for between Broome and Wallal
> 
> all info is at the BoM page under WA.
> 
> Matt Smith
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu
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Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 11:20:35 -0600
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Tom Johnstone <johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Chasing in Europe
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<x-flowed>
At 02:50 AM 2/14/01, you wrote:
>clyve (and the list)
>
>Indeed it seems to be Switzerland where it all happens - and they've got
>doppler!
>
>3 supercell events in 2000 one of which was studied intently and an abstract
>/ talk about it in the European Severe Weather Conference.

I lived in Geneva, Switzerland, from 1994 until the end of 1999. We used to 
get big storms coming in during the summer there. Some of these were 
convection associated with hot summer air rising and hitting the cold 
mountain air I think. But the best storms were when a cold front came 
through following a period of hot weather. When the  cold air hit the start 
of the Alps it really exploded. I remember these events being primarily 
very heavy rain, lots of lightning, and hail, but not particularly strong 
winds.

Tom Johnstone
Madison, WI


** Please note: Phone number below is new **

Tom Johnstone
Psychology Department
University of Wisconsin-Madison
johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu
Tel: +1 608 265 4230     FAX: +1 608 265 2875

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <snowfall at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Upper Blue Mountains
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 17:02:48 +1100
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Written offfline: Thursday 5pm.

Hi all,

Bit of a contrast today compared to the very humid weather the mountains has
had over the last few weeks.
At my place it was 15C this morning (at around 8am) and only 13 by midday,
its currently 11.5C at 4:50pm.

Still, I've been in short-sleeves all day, as its around 17 inside. Its not
that cold for us mountains folk.

See  http://www.bom.gov.au/olympic/products/IDN60013.shtml     for more
details on our area, Mount Boyce is the station that closely represents our
area.



Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au
 at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Chasing in Europe
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 17:07:16 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> I lived in Geneva, Switzerland, from 1994 until the end of 1999. We used to 
> get big storms coming in during the summer there. Some of these were 
> convection associated with hot summer air rising and hitting the cold 
> mountain air I think. But the best storms were when a cold front came 
> through following a period of hot weather. When the  cold air hit the start 
> of the Alps it really exploded. I remember these events being primarily 
> very heavy rain, lots of lightning, and hail, but not particularly strong 
> winds.
> 

I've seen thunderstorms in many parts of Europe, and a particularly
memorable one in southern Switzerland (most memorable because it
unloaded in the last 20 minutes of a World Cup orienteering race I
was running in and the bridge that you had to cross to get to the
finish was partially washed away about 15 minutes after I finished).

Most of Europe seems to be susceptible to thunderstorms, even 
surprisingly far north (I have been near to tornado outbreaks - without
actually seeing a funnel on either occasion - in both Sweden and
Finland). On meteorological grounds alone the further east you
go, the more likely really interesting stuff seems to be (western
Russia has a reputation for tornadoes second only to the US), but
I shudder to think about the practicalities of chasing in Russia!
I'd second Clyve's recommendation of Hungary - plenty of storms and
lots of relatively flat, open terrain. Poland and southern Romania
would be good for the same reasons. 

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 17:16:50 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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Subject: aus-wx: Video Night
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This email is for Sydney people :)

Seeing as the parents have gone away for a couple of nights, im holding
a BBQ and video
night at my place on saturday night.
If anyone that comes brings something (bread rolls, bottle of soft
drink, mixed salad, whatever)
it would be appreciated. Bring your own steak if you want it, i'll
supply sausages.
Anyone is welcome from 3pm onwards, this saturday.
Anyone interested drop me an email so I can get an idea of numbers.
And if anyone wants my address, let me know in a private email and ill
let you know.

Hope to see a couple of people turn up if you can make it.

Matthew Smith
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 17:46:18 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: AMOS meeting Sydney for those interested
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
NEWSLETTER No. 2001/1

   February 2001


Sydney Centre Committee for 2001:

Chair           Milton Speer            BoM
Vice Chair      Elly Spark              BoM
Secretary       Michael Box             Uni of New South Wales
Treasurer       Angela Maharaj  Macquarie University
Committee       Gail Box                Uni of New South Wales
Julie Evans             BoM
                  Paul Graham             Macquarie University
                  Neil Holbrook           Macquarie University
                  Neal Moodie             BoM
                  Alan Williams           Sydney Uni (retired).


NOTICE OF FEBRUARY SCIENTIFIC MEETING

The next meeting of the AMOS Sydney Centre will be held on Wednesday
February 28, 2001
Venue: University of New South Wales
              School of Physics
              Room 27, Old Main Building
              Parking is available on campus (for a fee),
but free parking on Barker St. is probably the best option.
The Old Main Building is opposite the Barker St. gate.
Time:   7:30 p.m. for a 7:45 p.m. start.

The program includes announcements, the current weather situation and
forecasts for the week. The main seminar will be on "Olympic Weather", by
our very own Elly Spark and Julie Evans (full details on next page).

Members are invited to join the speaker and committee any time after 6pm
for dinner at the highly recommended Mamma Teresa Italian Restaurant, 412
Anzac Pde. Kensington (one block south of UNSW   easy walking distance!).
It would assist our planning if members planning to attend the meeting (and
also the dinner), phoned the Secretary (93854545).

AMOS Scientific Meeting, February 28
Room 27, Old Main Building, UNSW, 7:30pm

Olympic Weather

Elly Spark & Julie Evans
Olympic Games Weather Service
Bureau of Meteorology


The Bureau of Meteorology provided all the weather services to SOCOG during
the 2000 Olympic Games.  The mission was to provide the Games with
outstanding meteorological services, through the provision of tailored,
venue-specific forecasts and warnings of the highest possible quality to
organizers, participants and spectators.

The Olympic venues were distributed across Sydney from the offshore sailing
course outside the Harbour to Penrith Lakes, 60km inland at the foot of the
Blue Mountains. Each venue provided a unique forecasting challenge
depending on the combination of its location, the potential dangers to
spectators and the weather sensitivities of the sports being played.

The joint presentation will include the background to the Olympic weather
service, information about the special forecast services provided, as well
as the significant weather that occurred during the Olympic period and its
impact on the running of the games.






-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au


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-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: chris.nitsopoulos at jcu.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Tropical cyclone in the Gulf
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 17:53:44 +1000 (AEST)
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Hi All

A watch for a possible tropical cyclone has been issued for the SE Gulf of 
Carpentaria. The long range movement is expected to be East or SE so watch out 
North Queensland because rainfall will go thru the roof in the moist North 
Easterly convergent pattern to the East of the system. Another possible cyclone 
could form in the Coral Sea the bureau give it a moderate chance however it is 
expected to also continue moving East away from the coast. All this stuff can 
be viewed under Queensland on the BOM site.

Cheers: Chris Nitso
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather-Approval" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Test 
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 18:33:57 +1000
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Sigh,

Cannot win.  World.std.com is slower than a wet week.  Yahoo is gathering
all the e-mails so that they can make clones of everyone in 100 years time.



Anthony Spierings
as029 at bigpond.net.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 20:10:13 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Test
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

ahem...can I correct you on that...


don't you mean 'slower than a dry week dominated by stratocu'........
(the only place where the definition 'as slow as a wet week' could be affixed
is to Wollongong when they experience a week of drizzly stratocu!!!) - just ask
Michael Thompson.....

Jane

Anthony Spierings wrote:

> Sigh,
>
> Cannot win.  World.std.com is slower than a wet week.  Yahoo is gathering
> all the e-mails so that they can make clones of everyone in 100 years time.
>
> Anthony Spierings
> as029 at bigpond.net.au

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Test
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 19:06:59 +0930
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LOL!! Dont get MT started again!!!! geese.... (joking MT - I remember Wgong
weather all too well.......).

Here - very warm & sticky - wild weather has died for now.... due to be back
again late weekend early next week.

Paul.

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
Sent: Thursday, 15 February 2001 6:40 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Test


ahem...can I correct you on that...


don't you mean 'slower than a dry week dominated by stratocu'........
(the only place where the definition 'as slow as a wet week' could be
affixed
is to Wollongong when they experience a week of drizzly stratocu!!!) - just
ask
Michael Thompson.....

Jane

Anthony Spierings wrote:

> Sigh,
>
> Cannot win.  World.std.com is slower than a wet week.  Yahoo is gathering
> all the e-mails so that they can make clones of everyone in 100 years
time.
>
> Anthony Spierings
> as029 at bigpond.net.au

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 20:52:43 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Finally got the photos back.....
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

As some of you may know, I was on the chase 16th and especially the 17th 
January outbreak as well as being joined by a reporter from the Sydney 
Morning Herald Good Weekend's Greg Bearup... He borrowed my camera and 
hence had .. still has my film. Well finally I have them photos sent to me 
and now scanned at... not too many this time

http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd.html

On the first part you will recognise the Casino supercell from the rear 
view and then another supercell we watched pass through literally explode 
near N of Dorrigo. Now on radar, it doesn't look great at this stage as it 
was probably reorgnasing during its explosive stage. The whole system ended 
up covering an area the size larger than Tasmania off the N Coast of NSW.

For those that browse through - enjoy.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 19:36:13 +0930
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HI all.

Qld BOM first TC advice for a long long time!! Gulf is the centre of action.
Wonder what the next name is??


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 23:18:02 +1100 (AEDT)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Paul,

Another funny W - Wylva this time. 

Cheers,

Jonty.

____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au

Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office
295 Ann Street
Brisbane  Qld   4000
Australia

Ph +61 7 3239 8700

____________________________________________________________________

On Thu, 15 Feb 2001, Paul Mossman wrote:

> HI all.
> 
> Qld BOM first TC advice for a long long time!! Gulf is the centre of action.
> Wonder what the next name is??
> 
> 
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> 

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X-Originating-IP: [129.94.6.29]
From: "James P" <severewxoz at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NZ wx and temps???
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 02:12:08 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 15 Feb 2001 15:12:08.0293 (UTC) FILETIME=[A9CF4950:01C09761]
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<x-flowed>
Hi list,
     Now Kiwis, what on earth is happening over there?? My eyes must be 
playing tricks on me. Whats this 29 degrees max temp in Auckland business , 
what? 29! Oh and the 26 degrees thingo in Wellington. These North Islanders 
must be dropping dead all over the place!  hehe
     Have lots of family in the north and have spent many summers in 
Auckland in particular. Haven't seen a 29 there for years, in fact my memory 
takes me back as far as jan 1990 during the commonwealth games and boy was 
this 29 degree day hot even for an aussie! I know the summer of 97/98 was 
pretty warm but dont think it went past 28, well not in the city anyway.  
Maybe someone over there can clarify this as i am strictly an outsider. And 
while your at it the all time highest max temp. From what i gather around 
32.
   Dew points would also be high  i imagine, 22-23 perhaps. Very similar to 
what Sydney has being experiencing this summer! Just out of curiousity what 
is required of weather systems in NZ to produce this kind of weather, 
particularly in the north and why not very often  ANYONE???? just curious, 
maybe some storms now!

REGARDS
James P. From a much cooler strato cu Sydney!!

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "TWC" <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 07:28:45 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Jonty, Wouldn't the name depend on which office names it, Qld or NT? Or has
already been decided as well?

The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
http://www.theweather.com.au


----- Original Message -----
From: "Jonty Hall" <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2001 11:18 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....


| Hi Paul,
|
| Another funny W - Wylva this time.
|
| Cheers,
|
| Jonty.
|
| ____________________________________________________________________
|
| Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
|
| Bureau of Meteorology
| Queensland Regional Office
| 295 Ann Street
| Brisbane  Qld   4000
| Australia
|
| Ph +61 7 3239 8700
|
| ____________________________________________________________________
|
| On Thu, 15 Feb 2001, Paul Mossman wrote:
|
| > HI all.
| >
| > Qld BOM first TC advice for a long long time!! Gulf is the centre of
action.
| > Wonder what the next name is??
| >
| >
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| >
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Test
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 08:59:18 +1100
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We have had our share of strato-cu over the last few days too, little rain.

Classic immutable law of storm chasing occurred during the week. Storms to
Batemans Bay one day, then north of us the next.

Michael


----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, 15 February 2001 20:36
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Test


> LOL!! Dont get MT started again!!!! geese.... (joking MT - I remember
Wgong
> weather all too well.......).
>
> Here - very warm & sticky - wild weather has died for now.... due to be
back
> again late weekend early next week.
>
> Paul.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
> Sent: Thursday, 15 February 2001 6:40 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Test
>
>
> ahem...can I correct you on that...
>
>
> don't you mean 'slower than a dry week dominated by stratocu'........
> (the only place where the definition 'as slow as a wet week' could be
> affixed
> is to Wollongong when they experience a week of drizzly stratocu!!!) -
just
> ask
> Michael Thompson.....
>
> Jane
>
> Anthony Spierings wrote:
>
> > Sigh,
> >
> > Cannot win.  World.std.com is slower than a wet week.  Yahoo is
gathering
> > all the e-mails so that they can make clones of everyone in 100 years
> time.
> >
> > Anthony Spierings
> > as029 at bigpond.net.au
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
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From: "James P" <severewxoz at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NZ wx and temps???
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 02:12:08 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 15 Feb 2001 15:12:08.0293 (UTC) FILETIME=[A9CF4950:01C09761]
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<x-flowed>
Hi list,
     Now Kiwis, what on earth is happening over there?? My eyes must be 
playing tricks on me. Whats this 29 degrees max temp in Auckland business , 
what? 29! Oh and the 26 degrees thingo in Wellington. These North Islanders 
must be dropping dead all over the place!  hehe
     Have lots of family in the north and have spent many summers in 
Auckland in particular. Haven't seen a 29 there for years, in fact my memory 
takes me back as far as jan 1990 during the commonwealth games and boy was 
this 29 degree day hot even for an aussie! I know the summer of 97/98 was 
pretty warm but dont think it went past 28, well not in the city anyway.  
Maybe someone over there can clarify this as i am strictly an outsider. And 
while your at it the all time highest max temp. From what i gather around 
32.
   Dew points would also be high  i imagine, 22-23 perhaps. Very similar to 
what Sydney has being experiencing this summer! Just out of curiousity what 
is required of weather systems in NZ to produce this kind of weather, 
particularly in the north and why not very often  ANYONE???? just curious, 
maybe some storms now!

REGARDS
James P. From a much cooler strato cu Sydney!!

_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ wx and temps???
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 15:40:37 -0700
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hey james,

Nz does get some hot temps - check the climate for Alexander in the South
Island - Massive tempreture range, 40's in summer, -10(mayber colder) in the
winter.

cheers, LYle

----- Original Message -----
From: "James P" <severewxoz at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2001 8:12 AM
Subject: aus-wx: NZ wx and temps???


> Hi list,
>      Now Kiwis, what on earth is happening over there?? My eyes must be
> playing tricks on me. Whats this 29 degrees max temp in Auckland business
,
> what? 29! Oh and the 26 degrees thingo in Wellington. These North
Islanders
> must be dropping dead all over the place!  hehe
>      Have lots of family in the north and have spent many summers in
> Auckland in particular. Haven't seen a 29 there for years, in fact my
memory
> takes me back as far as jan 1990 during the commonwealth games and boy was
> this 29 degree day hot even for an aussie! I know the summer of 97/98 was
> pretty warm but dont think it went past 28, well not in the city anyway.
> Maybe someone over there can clarify this as i am strictly an outsider.
And
> while your at it the all time highest max temp. From what i gather around
> 32.
>    Dew points would also be high  i imagine, 22-23 perhaps. Very similar
to
> what Sydney has being experiencing this summer! Just out of curiousity
what
> is required of weather systems in NZ to produce this kind of weather,
> particularly in the north and why not very often  ANYONE???? just curious,
> maybe some storms now!
>
> REGARDS
> James P. From a much cooler strato cu Sydney!!
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ wx and temps???
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 10:24:35 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> hey james,
> 
> Nz does get some hot temps - check the climate for Alexander in the South
> Island - Massive tempreture range, 40's in summer, -10(mayber colder) in the
> winter.
> 
> cheers, LYle

40s is a bit of an exaggeration - 40 has been topped (once in 1973)
on the east coast of the South Island (the NZ record, set then, is
42.something at Rangiora; Christchurch also got 42). I think the
Alexandra record is about 38 +/- 1. 

The highest extremes are on the lee side of the mountains in both
islands, generally on or close to the coasts, but the highest averages
are further inland (because of the reduced impact of sea breezes) and
further north.

Auckland and Wellington are both highly maritime climates, being at
narrow points of the island, and therefore have surprisingly low
extreme maxima (and high extreme minima). From memory the Auckland
record is 31.5, and Wellington's is similar. (I can't remember 
seeing a 30 in either location in the years I've been watching).

As for extreme minima, the lowest values are, not surprisingly, inland
and on the eastern side of the South Island. Ophir, a valley site
north of Alexandra, has been as low as -21.5, although such values are
rare - in a normal year NZ lowest temperature of the year is in the
-10 to -15 range. As always for extreme minima, the values are very
sensitive to local topography. Unlike Australia, there are no stations
at high elevations (above 1000m) on the South Island, so there have
undoubtedly been much lower temperatures on the high peaks - I would
expect that the summit of Mount Cook would go below -20 reasonably
regularly in winter and would have approached -30 on occasions.

Something that happens occasionally in southern NZ which doesn't 
happen in populated areas of Australia is the development of 
anticyclones over snow cover, with the feedbacks that ensue from 
that. There was a particularly notable episode in July 1996 in
the southern South Island, when snow fell to sea level and was followed
by strong ridging. Even at Invercargill, on the coast, there were
several successive days with maxima near 0 and minima around -9,
whilst further inland it was below freezing continuously for the
best part of a week. Maxima near -10 are not unheard of in inland 
valleys under such circumstances. (The difference in latitude
between southern NZ and southern Australia counts for a bit when
it comes to the breaking down of valley inversions).

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.27.47.81]
From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Met books
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 23:20:13 
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 15 Feb 2001 23:20:13.0544 (UTC) FILETIME=[D92DF680:01C097A5]
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<x-flowed>
I have hmmm 3 weather books, they are very good, but I can't remember their 
real titles, I know the word 'weather' is mentioned in the title *L*



>From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Met books
>Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 21:52:41 +1100
>
>Evening all,
>
>I've decided that my bookshelf needs another couple of met books (so
>it's a late Christmas present to me <g>).  I'd like to know what books
>other people have in their libraries & which they think are the 'best'
>(ok, so define best?????) - I'm allowing myself a couple of hundred
>dollars so I can afford 1 or 2 or 3......
>
>Thoughts would all be greatly appreciated.
>
>Many thanks,
>
>Jane
>--------------------------------
>Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
>Melbourne Storm Chasers
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
>ASWA - Victoria
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>--------------------------------
>
>
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</x-flowed>
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 11:09:39 +1100 (AEDT)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Nope, it does depend on the office - I was anticipating that Qld would be
naming it. Which has just happened as I type - Wylva it is...

Jonty.

____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au

Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office
295 Ann Street
Brisbane  Qld   4000
Australia

Ph +61 7 3239 8700

____________________________________________________________________

On Fri, 16 Feb 2001, TWC wrote:

> Jonty, Wouldn't the name depend on which office names it, Qld or NT? Or has
> already been decided as well?
> 
> The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> http://www.theweather.com.au
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jonty Hall" <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2001 11:18 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....
> 
> 
> | Hi Paul,
> |
> | Another funny W - Wylva this time.
> |
> | Cheers,
> |
> | Jonty.
> |
> | ____________________________________________________________________
> |
> | Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
> |
> | Bureau of Meteorology
> | Queensland Regional Office
> | 295 Ann Street
> | Brisbane  Qld   4000
> | Australia
> |
> | Ph +61 7 3239 8700
> |
> | ____________________________________________________________________
> |
> | On Thu, 15 Feb 2001, Paul Mossman wrote:
> |
> | > HI all.
> | >
> | > Qld BOM first TC advice for a long long time!! Gulf is the centre of
> action.
> | > Wonder what the next name is??
> | >
> | >
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> | >  message.
> | >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> | >
> |
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> |
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 10:26:26 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Jonty,

There also appears to be another disturbance in the Coral Sea around
18.5S/160E - still has a bit to do though, any thoughts on this?

AC

Jonty Hall wrote:
> 
> Nope, it does depend on the office - I was anticipating that Qld would be
> naming it. Which has just happened as I type - Wylva it is...
> 
> Jonty.
> 
> ____________________________________________________________________
> 
> Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
> 
> Bureau of Meteorology
> Queensland Regional Office
> 295 Ann Street
> Brisbane  Qld   4000
> Australia
> 
> Ph +61 7 3239 8700
> 
> ____________________________________________________________________
> 
> On Fri, 16 Feb 2001, TWC wrote:
> 
> > Jonty, Wouldn't the name depend on which office names it, Qld or NT? Or has
> > already been decided as well?
> >
> > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> > http://www.theweather.com.au
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Jonty Hall" <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2001 11:18 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....
> >
> >
> > | Hi Paul,
> > |
> > | Another funny W - Wylva this time.
> > |
> > | Cheers,
> > |
> > | Jonty.
> > |
> > | ____________________________________________________________________
> > |
> > | Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
> > |
> > | Bureau of Meteorology
> > | Queensland Regional Office
> > | 295 Ann Street
> > | Brisbane  Qld   4000
> > | Australia
> > |
> > | Ph +61 7 3239 8700
> > |
> > | ____________________________________________________________________
> > |
> > | On Thu, 15 Feb 2001, Paul Mossman wrote:
> > |
> > | > HI all.
> > | >
> > | > Qld BOM first TC advice for a long long time!! Gulf is the centre of
> > action.
> > | > Wonder what the next name is??
> > | >
> > | >
> > | >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> > your
> > | >  message.
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> > | >
> > |
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> > |
> >
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> >
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-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Blayney Woman Struck by Lightning 13/02. 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5  September 22, 2000
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 12:12:51 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on Domino/Advance(Release 5.0.5 |September 22, 2000) at
 16/02/2001 12:12:49
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This story below is in todays Western Advocate in Bathurst..  I was called
in to work during Blayneys Storm on 13/2. We had 177
lightning strikes in the area. As my posts said on that night we had quite
a few drop out fuses on Transformer
Poles. Our staff attended each address to replace these and finished at
about 12am when I did.

This lady was very lucky indeed..

Dave
Bathurst

Blayney woman struck by lightning

                      A 53-year-old Blayney woman was lucky to escape
serious injury after being struck by lightning in the
                      backyard of her home in Queen Street on Tuesday
night.

                      Patricia Gay, aged 53, had gone out to her clothes
line to bring in washing as a storm approached
                      when she was struck and thrown to the ground.

                      Mrs Gay was treated by ambulance officers at the
scene before being transferred to Orange Base
                      Hospital for treatment.

                      Her daughter Annetta Gray, who was visiting with her
family at the time, said the incident has left her
                      mother exhausted and shaken.

                      "Mum's eyelashes, her eyebrows and her hair was
singed and she was having what appeared to be
                      some sort of seizure as we waited for the ambulance
to arrive. Her whole body was shaking," she
                      said.

                      Mrs Gay said the ferocity of the storm had taken
everyone by surprise.

                      "Mum had run out the back to get the washing into but
the lightning was lighting up the sky. My son
                      was screaming because he is afraid of storms, so I
didn't actually hear the sound of the lightning
                      striking."

                      A spokesperson for Blayney Ambulance said the woman
was fortunate not to receive any entry or exit
                      burns, which are a common occurrence when struck by
lightning.

                      Mrs Gay was discharged from Orange Base Hospital on
Wednesday and was recovering at home with
                      her family.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 11:18:21 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Cold in Brisbane in the SE Change
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Brrrr - the SE'ly came through here, dropped the temp from 26/19 to
23/20, but now back up to 24/20.  It's the wind chill though that really
takes it out of you - gusts up to 30kn here.  Cape Moreton has sustained
winds of 39kn with gusts to 46kn...a bit stronger then what the strong
wind warning suggested (20-30kn).  Gold Coast Seaway had sustained winds
of 33kn and gusts to 42kn earlier.  If these winds continue, the BoM may
need to consider issuing a gale warning perhaps???
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 12:36:01 +1100 (AEDT)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hey Anthony,

Yep, we're keeping a close eye on that one as well - it is showing signs
of development, and the environment is not too bad. We may end up naming
two in one day!! Unless it slides east of 160E first - if it doesn't, it
would be called Abigail.  Model guidance is tending to take it very close
to, or over, New Caledonia at about 72 hours. The EC then becomes very
interesting, bringing the system charging across the Coral Sea and making
landfall near Coffs Harbour next Tuesday. The UK does a sililar thing, but
doesn't bring it ashore. Not much confidence in this scenario as yet, but
obviously it is being monitored. 

Cheers,

Jonty.

____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au

Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office
295 Ann Street
Brisbane  Qld   4000
Australia

Ph +61 7 3239 8700

____________________________________________________________________

On Fri, 16 Feb 2001, Anthony Cornelius wrote:

> Hi Jonty,
> 
> There also appears to be another disturbance in the Coral Sea around
> 18.5S/160E - still has a bit to do though, any thoughts on this?
> 
> AC
> 
> Jonty Hall wrote:
> > 
> > Nope, it does depend on the office - I was anticipating that Qld would be
> > naming it. Which has just happened as I type - Wylva it is...
> > 
> > Jonty.
> > 
> > ____________________________________________________________________
> > 
> > Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
> > 
> > Bureau of Meteorology
> > Queensland Regional Office
> > 295 Ann Street
> > Brisbane  Qld   4000
> > Australia
> > 
> > Ph +61 7 3239 8700
> > 
> > ____________________________________________________________________
> > 
> > On Fri, 16 Feb 2001, TWC wrote:
> > 
> > > Jonty, Wouldn't the name depend on which office names it, Qld or NT? Or has
> > > already been decided as well?
> > >
> > > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> > > http://www.theweather.com.au
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Jonty Hall" <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2001 11:18 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....
> > >
> > >
> > > | Hi Paul,
> > > |
> > > | Another funny W - Wylva this time.
> > > |
> > > | Cheers,
> > > |
> > > | Jonty.
> > > |
> > > | ____________________________________________________________________
> > > |
> > > | Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
> > > |
> > > | Bureau of Meteorology
> > > | Queensland Regional Office
> > > | 295 Ann Street
> > > | Brisbane  Qld   4000
> > > | Australia
> > > |
> > > | Ph +61 7 3239 8700
> > > |
> > > | ____________________________________________________________________
> > > |
> > > | On Thu, 15 Feb 2001, Paul Mossman wrote:
> > > |
> > > | > HI all.
> > > | >
> > > | > Qld BOM first TC advice for a long long time!! Gulf is the centre of
> > > action.
> > > | > Wonder what the next name is??
> > > | >
> > > | >
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> > > your
> > > | >  message.
> > > | >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > | >
> > > |
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> > > |  message.
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> > > |
> > >
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> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > 
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
> -- 
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> 

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From: "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 12:47:45 +1100
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<x-html>
<html>
<DIV>
<P><BR><BR></P>Stats for this are probably not kept, but with the development of TC Wylva, that makes 3 emanating from this current phase/pulse of monsoonal activity.&nbsp; Is this some sort of record?&nbsp; Guess its symptomatic/indicative of the oomph in this particular monsoonal burst.</DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Blayney Woman Struck by Lightning 13/02. 
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 11:40:21 +1000
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One may surmise that perhaps, the clothes line was a Hill's Hoist (or
equiv.) and the lightning actually struck the hoist which would be
consistent with the end result.

John.
>snip

Subject: aus-wx: Blayney Woman Struck by Lightning 13/02.

This story below is in todays Western Advocate in Bathurst..  I was called
in to work during Blayneys Storm on 13/2. We had 177
lightning strikes in the area. As my posts said on that night we had quite
a few drop out fuses on Transformer
Poles. Our staff attended each address to replace these and finished at
about 12am when I did.

This lady was very lucky indeed..

Dave
Bathurst

Blayney woman struck by lightning

                      A 53-year-old Blayney woman was lucky to escape
serious injury after being struck by lightning in the
                      backyard of her home in Queen Street on Tuesday
night.

                      Patricia Gay, aged 53, had gone out to her clothes
line to bring in washing as a storm approached
                      when she was struck and thrown to the ground.

                      Mrs Gay was treated by ambulance officers at the
scene before being transferred to Orange Base
                      Hospital for treatment.

                      Her daughter Annetta Gray, who was visiting with her
family at the time, said the incident has left her
                      mother exhausted and shaken.

                      "Mum's eyelashes, her eyebrows and her hair was
singed and she was having what appeared to be
                      some sort of seizure as we waited for the ambulance
to arrive. Her whole body was shaking," she
                      said.

                      Mrs Gay said the ferocity of the storm had taken
everyone by surprise.

                      "Mum had run out the back to get the washing into but
the lightning was lighting up the sky. My son
                      was screaming because he is afraid of storms, so I
didn't actually hear the sound of the lightning
                      striking."

                      A spokesperson for Blayney Ambulance said the woman
was fortunate not to receive any entry or exit
                      burns, which are a common occurrence when struck by
lightning.

                      Mrs Gay was discharged from Orange Base Hospital on
Wednesday and was recovering at home with
                      her family.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold in Brisbane in the SE Change
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 14:00:09 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> Brrrr - the SE'ly came through here, dropped the temp from 26/19 to
> 23/20, but now back up to 24/20.  It's the wind chill though that really
> takes it out of you - gusts up to 30kn here.  Cape Moreton has sustained
> winds of 39kn with gusts to 46kn...a bit stronger then what the strong
> wind warning suggested (20-30kn).  Gold Coast Seaway had sustained winds
> of 33kn and gusts to 42kn earlier.  If these winds continue, the BoM may
> need to consider issuing a gale warning perhaps???

I'm sure Canadians would raise a bit of a smile at the concept of
'wind chill' at 23 degrees...

Blair

(who experienced the joys of -12 and 25-knot northerlies in Toronto
a few weeks ago)
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X-Originating-IP: [129.94.6.29]
From: "James P" <severewxoz at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NZ wx and temps???
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 16:59:26 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Feb 2001 05:59:26.0819 (UTC) FILETIME=[9E71AB30:01C097DD]
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<x-flowed>
Thanks Blair/lyle for your emails.
    Yeah Nz does have some pretty good weather extremes thats for sure. 
Amazing what these fohn-type winds on the south island can do. Our dry, very 
hot weather  here in oz is a product of very deep north/northwest airstreams 
which drag heat from many tousands of kms away. The fact that a tiny 
landmass such as New zealands combined with fairly southern lattitudes can 
produce 40+ temps is nothing short of astounding. No doubt if the mountain 
ranges extended further north, northern centres would se temps near 40 as 
well.
     One other interesting thing i found was that of uv indexs, readings of 
15 or more are apparently quite common, especially northern centres, 
possibly a reason why the sun over there has a very distinct sting to it..

See yas
James P




  *********************** Original message****************************



Hi list,
     Now Kiwis, what on earth is happening over there?? My eyes must be 
playing tricks on me. Whats this 29 degrees max temp in Auckland business , 
what? 29! Oh and the 26 degrees thingo in Wellington. These North Islanders 
must be dropping dead all over the place!  hehe
     Have lots of family in the north and have spent many summers in 
Auckland in particular. Haven't seen a 29 there for years, in fact my memory 
takes me back as far as jan 1990 during the commonwealth games and boy was 
this 29 degree day hot even for an aussie! I know the summer of 97/98 was 
pretty warm but dont think it went past 28, well not in the city anyway.  
Maybe someone over there can clarify this as i am strictly an outsider. And 
while your at it the all time highest max temp. From what i gather around 
32.
   Dew points would also be high  i imagine, 22-23 perhaps. Very similar to 
what Sydney has being experiencing this summer! Just out of curiousity what 
is required of weather systems in NZ to produce this kind of weather, 
particularly in the north and why not very often  ANYONE???? just curious, 
maybe some storms now!

REGARDS
James P. From a much cooler strato cu Sydney!!

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 18:27:16 +1100
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Jonty & Anthony

Yes, scenario is very curious !

Strong high to south - possibly blocking continued eastward/south eastward
movement of Coral Sea low - then a returning low pressure system movement
(possibly as a hybrid type storm). Its not unusual for SE Qld, NE NSW storms
of this type to rapidly return from mid Coral Sea, New Caledonia region
(remember Nancy, Frank and, to a lesser, degree Violet)

Well worth watching .

(By the way, if this does become TC Abigail, it will be a bit of milestone
as I note that the original TC Abigail was in Jan/Feb 1982. Therefore it has
taken 19 years for QLD cyclone names to reach a complete list rotation - a
bit sad for me really, as it makes me realise how long I have been plotting
cyclones.I started a couple of years before this, well before the advent of
internet etc...)


Simon

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jonty Hall" <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 16, 2001 12:36 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....


> Hey Anthony,
>
> Yep, we're keeping a close eye on that one as well - it is showing signs
> of development, and the environment is not too bad. We may end up naming
> two in one day!! Unless it slides east of 160E first - if it doesn't, it
> would be called Abigail.  Model guidance is tending to take it very close
> to, or over, New Caledonia at about 72 hours. The EC then becomes very
> interesting, bringing the system charging across the Coral Sea and making
> landfall near Coffs Harbour next Tuesday. The UK does a sililar thing, but
> doesn't bring it ashore. Not much confidence in this scenario as yet, but
> obviously it is being monitored.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Jonty.
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
>
> Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
>
> Bureau of Meteorology
> Queensland Regional Office
> 295 Ann Street
> Brisbane  Qld   4000
> Australia
>
> Ph +61 7 3239 8700
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
>
> On Fri, 16 Feb 2001, Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>
> > Hi Jonty,
> >
> > There also appears to be another disturbance in the Coral Sea around
> > 18.5S/160E - still has a bit to do though, any thoughts on this?
> >
> > AC
> >
> > Jonty Hall wrote:
> > >
> > > Nope, it does depend on the office - I was anticipating that Qld would
be
> > > naming it. Which has just happened as I type - Wylva it is...
> > >
> > > Jonty.
> > >
> > > ____________________________________________________________________
> > >
> > > Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
> > >
> > > Bureau of Meteorology
> > > Queensland Regional Office
> > > 295 Ann Street
> > > Brisbane  Qld   4000
> > > Australia
> > >
> > > Ph +61 7 3239 8700
> > >
> > > ____________________________________________________________________
> > >
> > > On Fri, 16 Feb 2001, TWC wrote:
> > >
> > > > Jonty, Wouldn't the name depend on which office names it, Qld or NT?
Or has
> > > > already been decided as well?
> > > >
> > > > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> > > > http://www.theweather.com.au
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Jonty Hall" <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2001 11:18 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Advice for Gulf....
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > | Hi Paul,
> > > > |
> > > > | Another funny W - Wylva this time.
> > > > |
> > > > | Cheers,
> > > > |
> > > > | Jonty.
> > > > |
> > > > |
____________________________________________________________________
> > > > |
> > > > | Jonty Hall                   jonty.hall at bom.gov.au
> > > > |
> > > > | Bureau of Meteorology
> > > > | Queensland Regional Office
> > > > | 295 Ann Street
> > > > | Brisbane  Qld   4000
> > > > | Australia
> > > > |
> > > > | Ph +61 7 3239 8700
> > > > |
> > > > |
____________________________________________________________________
> > > > |
> > > > | On Thu, 15 Feb 2001, Paul Mossman wrote:
> > > > |
> > > > | > HI all.
> > > > | >
> > > > | > Qld BOM first TC advice for a long long time!! Gulf is the
centre of
> > > > action.
> > > > | > Wonder what the next name is??
> > > > | >
> > > > | >
> > > > | >
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> > > > | >  message.
> > > > |
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > > | >
> > > > |
> > > > |
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> > > >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > > |
> > > >
> > > >
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> > >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+

> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  message.
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> >
>
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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Info on Tenterfield Weather
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 16:13:34 GMT
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Ruth, the heaviest reports (away from the coast) were in the Tabulam -
Drake area. Mallanganee, 15km east of Tabulam, recorded 206.6 for the
24 hrs to 9am on the 2/2/01, while Drake got 171.2 and Tabulam Muirne
had 170.2. Tenterfield itself recorded 71.6 at the Wood Street gauge.
The only gauge in the Timbarra area is at Black Swamp and that sends
in postal returns, so we won't know about there for a month or two
yet. I can't help with the event return periods. There are other
reports of heavy rain in the area on my site -- go to News and
Extremes and select 2 Feb 2001.

Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News
http://www.australianweathernews.com


On Sat, 03 Feb 2001 18:51:01 +1100, Ruth Rosenhek
<ruthr at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

>hi.  I'm wondering if you can tell me how much rainfall there was in the 
>recent storm in Tenterfield and what event frequency this was (ie.  1 in 10 
>year event versus 1 in 100 and so on.)   Do you have these figures for the 
>Timbarra plateau as well up on the mountain?  Thanks.
>
>sincerely, Ruth Rosenhek
>Box 368, Lismore, NSW 2480
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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Quick question
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 16:23:30 GMT
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Catherine, I didn't see any quick answers to your quick question

On Sun, 4 Feb 2001 16:46:37 +1100, "Catherine Elliott"
<faerinelda at hotmail.com> wrote:

>Hi,
>
>Thanks jane it was just a thought. I have a couple of questions.  
>firstly in this text what do these two abbreviated headings mean?
>cld           tx/tn
>               degC  

cld = cloud (the amount of the sky covered in octas, or eighths)
tx/tn deg C = maximum and minimum temperatures in degrees Celcius

>And today we have the following statistics for gabo island. what is vrga
>
>Gabo Is     3757  14991  04  0400 40  8  SW/021  20 77  1014.9  0.4/06  vrga  23  --
>
virga is rain fallling from a cloud but evaporating before reaching
the ground. 

Laurier

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From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ wx and temps???
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 11:18:09 -0700
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hey Blair,

cheers for the climate info. I was in central otago during the winter and
summer of 99. It got pretty cold at night in winter, especially because of
the strong high's that dominated that winter (nothing like Colorado though).
When summer hit i thought it was pretty mild, but locals told me that it
could get to 40+ in Alexandra, maybe they were referring to somehwre close
by?? Or it could just be typical local legends ;)

lyle


----- Original Message -----
From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2001 4:24 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ wx and temps???


> >
> > hey james,
> >
> > Nz does get some hot temps - check the climate for Alexander in the
South
> > Island - Massive tempreture range, 40's in summer, -10(mayber colder) in
the
> > winter.
> >
> > cheers, LYle
>
> 40s is a bit of an exaggeration - 40 has been topped (once in 1973)
> on the east coast of the South Island (the NZ record, set then, is
> 42.something at Rangiora; Christchurch also got 42). I think the
> Alexandra record is about 38 +/- 1.
>
> The highest extremes are on the lee side of the mountains in both
> islands, generally on or close to the coasts, but the highest averages
> are further inland (because of the reduced impact of sea breezes) and
> further north.
>
> Auckland and Wellington are both highly maritime climates, being at
> narrow points of the island, and therefore have surprisingly low
> extreme maxima (and high extreme minima). From memory the Auckland
> record is 31.5, and Wellington's is similar. (I can't remember
> seeing a 30 in either location in the years I've been watching).
>
> As for extreme minima, the lowest values are, not surprisingly, inland
> and on the eastern side of the South Island. Ophir, a valley site
> north of Alexandra, has been as low as -21.5, although such values are
> rare - in a normal year NZ lowest temperature of the year is in the
> -10 to -15 range. As always for extreme minima, the values are very
> sensitive to local topography. Unlike Australia, there are no stations
> at high elevations (above 1000m) on the South Island, so there have
> undoubtedly been much lower temperatures on the high peaks - I would
> expect that the summit of Mount Cook would go below -20 reasonably
> regularly in winter and would have approached -30 on occasions.
>
> Something that happens occasionally in southern NZ which doesn't
> happen in populated areas of Australia is the development of
> anticyclones over snow cover, with the feedbacks that ensue from
> that. There was a particularly notable episode in July 1996 in
> the southern South Island, when snow fell to sea level and was followed
> by strong ridging. Even at Invercargill, on the coast, there were
> several successive days with maxima near 0 and minima around -9,
> whilst further inland it was below freezing continuously for the
> best part of a week. Maxima near -10 are not unheard of in inland
> valleys under such circumstances. (The difference in latitude
> between southern NZ and southern Australia counts for a bit when
> it comes to the breaking down of valley inversions).
>
> Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Active Monsoonal Phase
Date: Sat, 17 Feb 2001 06:57:20 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I notice this morning that ex-TC Wylva continues to 
move South West inland across Northern Territory and that the Tropical Low to 
the North West of New Caledonia has started a rapid south eastward movement 
(probably being captured by the low pressure area to the south and south 
east).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This leaves the potential for another Tropical Low 
to develop in the favourable, widenening gap between the two systems, possibly 
from the cluster of storms just east of Cape York on this morning's sat 
pic.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>If this does happen, I would expect an initial 
eastward movement. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>It is probably way, way to early to say this will 
happen, but as the monsoon has been particularly active lately, it anyone's 
guess ?&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Sat, 17 Feb 2001 10:14:42 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Cool pool & Coral Sea
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Morning all,

Keep an eye on the cloud mass (ex - Vincent?) in Western Australia near
the Goldfields.  It corresponds with a growing  'cool pool' at 850hPa
(currently 7 - 8C cooler than the surrounding air mass). There's a
strengthening NW at 300hPa to its west with a deep trough pushing in
from the southern Indian Ocean behind it.

If it is steered in the 'right' direction (ie: to the SE) , it could
make SA & Vic's weather just a little more interesting than it has been
for the past few days, but it looks like any activity would be middle
rather than low-level.

Keep an eye on the Coral Sea - that low shuffling off to the SE atm is
following the pattern of the 3 lows that have preceeded it - they've all
followed the same path - developed NW of NZ, moved NW, paused & then
slung off tto the SE - SW.  Watch the area directly north of NW for the
possible formation of the next one!!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Tichborne" <tich at netaccess.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #890
Date: Sat, 17 Feb 2001 10:50:30 +1300
Organization: Private
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40s is a bit of an exaggeration - 40 has been topped (once in 1973)
> on the east coast of the South Island (the NZ record, set then, is
> 42.something at Rangiora; Christchurch also got 42). I think the
> Alexandra record is about 38 +/- 1.

Christchurch got to 41 C in that event. 36 C (which I experienced in January
1998) is pretty unusual.


> Auckland and Wellington are both highly maritime climates, being at
> narrow points of the island, and therefore have surprisingly low
> extreme maxima (and high extreme minima). From memory the Auckland
> record is 31.5, and Wellington's is similar. (I can't remember
> seeing a 30 in either location in the years I've been watching).

But when it gets hot up there in Auckland, it's very muggy and one feels the
heat more (like this week). Wellington's occasional extremes result from it
being in the lee of ranges to the northeast, so that when warm northeasterly
airflows occur...

> As for extreme minima, the lowest values are, not surprisingly, inland
> and on the eastern side of the South Island. Ophir, a valley site
> north of Alexandra, has been as low as -21.5, although such values are
> rare - in a normal year NZ lowest temperature of the year is in the
> - -10 to -15 range

> Something that happens occasionally in southern NZ which doesn't
> happen in populated areas of Australia is the development of
> anticyclones over snow cover, with the feedbacks that ensue from
> that. There was a particularly notable episode in July 1996 in
> the southern South Island, when snow fell to sea level and was followed
> by strong ridging. Even at Invercargill, on the coast, there were
> several successive days with maxima near 0 and minima around -9,
> whilst further inland it was below freezing continuously for the
> best part of a week. Maxima near -10 are not unheard of in inland
> valleys under such circumstances.

 NZ's record lows have almost always happened during anticyclonic conditions
following heavy snowfalls, including the official national record low in
July 1995 in Central Otago. Even Christchurch's lowest recorded minimum (-7
C) followed the city's heaviest recorded (since European settlement)
snowfall in July 1945. Fine weather followed the fall, so the snow didn't
melt for a week. More commonly however, a major snowfall in the city (itself
not a very common occurence) is followed by rain or sleet, so the snow
usually melts before the weather clears. (this happend with the 1992
snowstorm - it was followed by a few days of rain)

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 17 Feb 2001 02:06:20 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Met books
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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To all.....
Have you looked through www.chaseday.com/wx-books2.htm 

Lots there - or for another reasonable read try "The Thunderstorm in
Human Affairs" edited by Edwin Kessler, put out by Uni. of Oklahoma
Prss, Norman - old but interesting. 
I have 650 wetaher boooks in library - some better than other
Jane - what are your specific interests.

Cheers,
Don White

Leslie Baxter wrote:
> 
> I have hmmm 3 weather books, they are very good, but I can't remember their
> real titles, I know the word 'weather' is mentioned in the title *L*
> 
> >From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Met books
> >Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 21:52:41 +1100
> >
> >Evening all,
> >
> >I've decided that my bookshelf needs another couple of met books (so
> >it's a late Christmas present to me <g>).  I'd like to know what books
> >other people have in their libraries & which they think are the 'best'
> >(ok, so define best?????) - I'm allowing myself a couple of hundred
> >dollars so I can afford 1 or 2 or 3......
> >
> >Thoughts would all be greatly appreciated.
> >
> >Many thanks,
> >
> >Jane
> >--------------------------------
> >Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> >cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> >Melbourne Storm Chasers
> >http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> >ASWA - Victoria
> >http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >--------------------------------
> >
> >
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 17 Feb 2001 02:13:45 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ wx and temps???
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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As far as my records go, the NZ record is 42.4 at Rangiora on 7 February
1973 and the North Island record is is 39.2 at Ruatoria on the same date
Don W

Blair Trewin wrote:
> 
> >
> > hey james,
> >
> > Nz does get some hot temps - check the climate for Alexander in the South
> > Island - Massive tempreture range, 40's in summer, -10(mayber colder) in the
> > winter.
> >
> > cheers, LYle
> 
> 40s is a bit of an exaggeration - 40 has been topped (once in 1973)
> on the east coast of the South Island (the NZ record, set then, is
> 42.something at Rangiora; Christchurch also got 42). I think the
> Alexandra record is about 38 +/- 1.
> 
> The highest extremes are on the lee side of the mountains in both
> islands, generally on or close to the coasts, but the highest averages
> are further inland (because of the reduced impact of sea breezes) and
> further north.
> 
> Auckland and Wellington are both highly maritime climates, being at
> narrow points of the island, and therefore have surprisingly low
> extreme maxima (and high extreme minima). From memory the Auckland
> record is 31.5, and Wellington's is similar. (I can't remember
> seeing a 30 in either location in the years I've been watching).
> 
> As for extreme minima, the lowest values are, not surprisingly, inland
> and on the eastern side of the South Island. Ophir, a valley site
> north of Alexandra, has been as low as -21.5, although such values are
> rare - in a normal year NZ lowest temperature of the year is in the
> -10 to -15 range. As always for extreme minima, the values are very
> sensitive to local topography. Unlike Australia, there are no stations
> at high elevations (above 1000m) on the South Island, so there have
> undoubtedly been much lower temperatures on the high peaks - I would
> expect that the summit of Mount Cook would go below -20 reasonably
> regularly in winter and would have approached -30 on occasions.
> 
> Something that happens occasionally in southern NZ which doesn't
> happen in populated areas of Australia is the development of
> anticyclones over snow cover, with the feedbacks that ensue from
> that. There was a particularly notable episode in July 1996 in
> the southern South Island, when snow fell to sea level and was followed
> by strong ridging. Even at Invercargill, on the coast, there were
> several successive days with maxima near 0 and minima around -9,
> whilst further inland it was below freezing continuously for the
> best part of a week. Maxima near -10 are not unheard of in inland
> valleys under such circumstances. (The difference in latitude
> between southern NZ and southern Australia counts for a bit when
> it comes to the breaking down of valley inversions).
> 
> Blair
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 16 Feb 2001 23:15:20 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Met books
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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All:

> Lots there - or for another reasonable read try "The Thunderstorm in
> Human Affairs" edited by Edwin Kessler, put out by Uni. of Oklahoma
> Prss, Norman - old but interesting. 
> I have 650 wetaher boooks in library - some better than other
> Jane - what are your specific interests.

I have said this before but I think the point is worth stating again.  I
would steer away from Mete text books, except one.  Most of the time for
those who wish to order up to date work on severe storms, I would order the
AMS preprints of The Severe Local Storms Conferences or those associated
with The Conferences on Radar Meteorology.  (Go to the AMS home page.) 
Within the pages of these "preprints" or "proceedings" are the latest
research and latest ideas.  Additionally, many of the past conference
preprints are excellent.  

I was at NSSL in the early 70's when Kessler's two-volume books were
written.  These are really out of date.  Note that I said that save one
book, I would steer away from books.  The one I would recommend you get is
the new Severe Local Storms Monograph.  But it is still in preparation. 
Chuck Doswell is the editor.  It should be published sometime this year,
perhaps within the next 6 months.  I can check on the anticipated
publication date.  Spend your money on the above conference preprints or
the monograph.  BTW, the preprints on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
and/or those dealing with tropical and hurricane meteorology are also
excellent but those will have many papers that don't deal with 'severe
local storms'.  But they will cover many related topics.

Just my opinion.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.171.105.243]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Finally got the photos back.....
Date: Sat, 17 Feb 2001 16:33:21 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 17 Feb 2001 05:33:21.0486 (UTC) FILETIME=[23D88EE0:01C098A3]
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<x-flowed>
Hi Jimmy,

Wow! Amazing pictures, especeially numbers 14 - 16. Now, THAT is a bomb 
going off...

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.


>From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Finally got the photos back.....
>Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 20:52:43 +1100
>
>Hi all,
>
>As some of you may know, I was on the chase 16th and especially the 17th
>January outbreak as well as being joined by a reporter from the Sydney
>Morning Herald Good Weekend's Greg Bearup... He borrowed my camera and
>hence had .. still has my film. Well finally I have them photos sent to me
>and now scanned at... not too many this time
>
>http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd.html
>
>On the first part you will recognise the Casino supercell from the rear
>view and then another supercell we watched pass through literally explode
>near N of Dorrigo. Now on radar, it doesn't look great at this stage as it
>was probably reorgnasing during its explosive stage. The whole system ended
>up covering an area the size larger than Tasmania off the N Coast of NSW.
>
>For those that browse through - enjoy.
>
>-----------------------------------------
>Jimmy Deguara
>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
>from
>Schofields, Sydney
>NSW Australia
>
>e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
>Web Page with Michael Bath
>
>Australian Severe Weather Home Page
>http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
>President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
Date: Sat, 17 Feb 2001 15:58:34 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Car Wx Equipment Help
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

This is more so directed at anyone who knows something about electronics
and LCD's...(I think it's LCD - it's the same sort of screen that a
calculator uses - black).

I have two instruments in my car that are used religiously on chases and
chasing without them feels like chasing blindfolded.  They are a
thermometer and a digital compass.  What I am wondering is - how does
heat effect the LCD displays on these?  Unfortunately at work I don't
have a shady tree spot like my boss - I'm relegated into the Sun.  The
reason why I ask is that my car frequently reaches "HHH" on the
thermometer, HHH means it's reached the maximum that the thermo measures
(70C).  Occassionally when it gets really hot - the thermo itself
"blacks out" - and the entire LCD display is just black, a dose of A/C
for a few mins fixes the problem and it quickly starts to "unblacken" on
the edges finally revealing the normal digits again.  Is this good for
the LCD display?  I'm guessing no, but I want to make sure I'm
right...more so because my compass has had its LCD screen play up a
little (it's also black) and it's missing two bars on one of the
digits.  Should I be removing these or placing them in a cooler part of
the car, or putting reflective covers on them or something to stop them
reaching very high temperatures, or doesn't it really matter?

Thanks for any help!
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Car Wx Equipment Help
Date: Sat, 17 Feb 2001 10:01:07 -0000
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anthony -

Liquid crystals have a maximum temperature after which they have twisted to
their full extent and no amount of AC drive voltage will untwist them - this
is the same effect as these strip type lcd thermometers you have for
measuring kiddies temperatures albeit at a higher temperature. Keep the
display device in an airflow or consider the use of a plasma display or
laptop.

I would have thought keeping it out of direct sunshine would help too if the
air temp is 40C christ knows what the temperature of an object directly
shone on by the sun through glass will be!

The high temperatures won't damage the display permanently.

Les
Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
StormCam:
http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
ICQ: 17296776
----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 17, 2001 5:58 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Car Wx Equipment Help


> Hi all,
>
> This is more so directed at anyone who knows something about electronics
> and LCD's...(I think it's LCD - it's the same sort of screen that a
> calculator uses - black).
>
> I have two instruments in my car that are used religiously on chases and
> chasing without them feels like chasing blindfolded.  They are a
> thermometer and a digital compass.  What I am wondering is - how does
> heat effect the LCD displays on these?  Unfortunately at work I don't
> have a shady tree spot like my boss - I'm relegated into the Sun.  The
> reason why I ask is that my car frequently reaches "HHH" on the
> thermometer, HHH means it's reached the maximum that the thermo measures
> (70C).  Occassionally when it gets really hot - the thermo itself
> "blacks out" - and the entire LCD display is just black, a dose of A/C
> for a few mins fixes the problem and it quickly starts to "unblacken" on
> the edges finally revealing the normal digits again.  Is this good for
> the LCD display?  I'm guessing no, but I want to make sure I'm
> right...more so because my compass has had its LCD screen play up a
> little (it's also black) and it's missing two bars on one of the
> digits.  Should I be removing these or placing them in a cooler part of
> the car, or putting reflective covers on them or something to stop them
> reaching very high temperatures, or doesn't it really matter?
>
> Thanks for any help!
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 18 Feb 2001 08:44:23 -0500
From: David Hart <dhart at world.std.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: test - ignore
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

test - ignore



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.27.47.81]
From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Airshow and dust devils.
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 01:00:04 
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2001 01:00:05.0104 (UTC) FILETIME=[4BAAB700:01C09A0F]
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<x-flowed>
G'day all
well the airshow was absolutally magnificent, I could watch them jet 
fighters all day! Loud and fast!
There was quite a few dust devils around too, one went down the middle of 
the crowd and made us all a little dusty!
Today is looking interesting, there must be a upper level trough near by, 
sky is full of growing Cu here in Colac, although forcast is for fine with 
high cloud, well we'll all have to wait and see.
cheers
Les Baxter

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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [144.132.32.209]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Airshow and dust devils.
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 15:24:17 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2001 04:24:17.0279 (UTC) FILETIME=[D28840F0:01C09A2B]
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<x-flowed>
Hi all.

I too was at the airshow (Sunday)

A great day.  Lots of noise, jet fuel and aircraft.  Bloody hot too.  While 
watching a Panavia Tornado (no, not the weather type!  The aircraft type.  
Although I'll bet the thrust from it would generate winds of about F20 
intensity!)  I noticed a cloud of dust on the opposite side of the airstrip, 
at the north end.  I didn't pay much attention to it, and thought it may 
have been a fire truck driving around or something.  Anyway, about 2 mins 
later, I was nearly blown over as a dust devil ripped through the crowd.  It 
was awesome!  Hats, paper and empty bottles of water went everywhere!  The 
winds knocked a few people over too.  I watched it tear through the rest of 
the crowd.  It was quite funny to watch it sneaking up on unsuspecting 
people as they looked skyward.  By the time I though about taking a photo, 
it had moved over and behind a grandstand, and I could only see some dust 
hanging above it.

There were however, quite a lot of smaller ones raging around the airport 
during the course of the day.




>From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Airshow and dust devils.
>Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 01:00:04
>
>G'day all
>well the airshow was absolutally magnificent, I could watch them jet
>fighters all day! Loud and fast!
>There was quite a few dust devils around too, one went down the middle of
>the crowd and made us all a little dusty!
>Today is looking interesting, there must be a upper level trough near by,
>sky is full of growing Cu here in Colac, although forcast is for fine with
>high cloud, well we'll all have to wait and see.
>cheers
>Les Baxter
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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</x-flowed>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Upper System - Coral Sea
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 18:30:52 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The sudden build up of cloud associated with the 
upper system travelling across the southern Coral Sea has been pretty impressive 
in the last few hours.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Could be very interesting to see what transpires 
for South East Qld &amp; Northern NSW over the next 24 - 48 hours.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Also, there appears to be something happening to 
the SE of the Solomon Islands that could also be worth a bit of a watch 
!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 20:04:24 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Anybody around coastal NSW notice the direction the cirrus was moving from
today. It was coming from the SE.

This is quite unusual and sometimes can be associated with east coast lows,
BUT in this case it is much the opposite case with a jet associated with a
horrible ridge of high pressure.

Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 20:12:19 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Yes Michael,

I did notice it and I suppose after watching the animations on Sunday it 
wasn't unexpected. I have noticed this a couple of times before despite it 
being unusual and it was in a similar situation.

There is an deep easterly wind profile expected along the east coast. 
Should be interesting to watch developments although no forecast from me....

Jimmy Deguara

At 08:04 PM 19/02/01 +1100, you wrote:
>Anybody around coastal NSW notice the direction the cirrus was moving from
>today. It was coming from the SE.
>
>This is quite unusual and sometimes can be associated with east coast lows,
>BUT in this case it is much the opposite case with a jet associated with a
>horrible ridge of high pressure.
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://ozthunder.com
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 20:21:37 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Michael,

We had that same flow yesterday around that upper ridge.  Fortunately it only
lasted 24 hours or so & it became quite 'troughy' as today progressed to the
extent that there have been scattered middle-level showers late this afternoon,
with extensive areas of altocumulus & altostratus (south of the ranges at
least).  Drops were widely spaced, and you had to work pretty hard to get even
vaguely wet - but it was a joy to sit out in 'the rain' for a change.  Only got
to 36.6C here.

Jane

Michael Thompson wrote:

> Anybody around coastal NSW notice the direction the cirrus was moving from
> today. It was coming from the SE.
>
> This is quite unusual and sometimes can be associated with east coast lows,
> BUT in this case it is much the opposite case with a jet associated with a
> horrible ridge of high pressure.
>
> Michael Thompson
> http://ozthunder.com
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

--

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 21:16:00 +1100
From: Aussiegirl <april at ains.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win95; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi guys....
could someof you please tell me where I can learn about the weather, clouds etc

I have been readign these emails for a while now... and some of it, well most
of it goes right over  my head......

thanks
April

Michael Thompson wrote:

> Anybody around coastal NSW notice the direction the cirrus was moving from
> today. It was coming from the SE.
>
> This is quite unusual and sometimes can be associated with east coast lows,
> BUT in this case it is much the opposite case with a jet associated with a
> horrible ridge of high pressure.
>
> Michael Thompson
> http://ozthunder.com
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 09:35:59 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: high temps
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I heard a radio "report" that Melbourne looks like having its hottest
summer for "a long while and Adelaide is even hotter" - end quote
(whatever that means.)
With consistently high temps, perhaps Blair could comment on how things
are shaping up
in those cities
Cheers
Don W.
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 21:51:40 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Hi Michael.
I sat out the backyard yesterday morning and watched some magnificent
fallstreaks cascading from dense patches of cirrus,all coming from a bearing
of 190 degrees moving at about 40 to 50 knots.The cirrus looked stunning
when viewed with polarizing glasses. This orientation of the upper flow is
also most unusual for this part of Aus,however I have noted it can occur
under these conditions... on the western side of a low pressure system
moving eastward across eastern Vic,on an occasion yesterday ahead of a
strong upper level ridge to the west of Victoria and in deep cold unstable
southwest to southerly airmasses with embedded CBs.The upper atmospheric
conditions on Sunday were saturated for ice accumulations, the moisture
appears to have arrived ex former tropical cyclone Vincent/Winsome.All great
stuff,I counted 3 spots of rain this afternoon from mid level
showers!!!!.regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Thompson <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: Aussie Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>;
<aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 19, 2001 8:04 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !


> Anybody around coastal NSW notice the direction the cirrus was moving from
> today. It was coming from the SE.
>
> This is quite unusual and sometimes can be associated with east coast
lows,
> BUT in this case it is much the opposite case with a jet associated with a
> horrible ridge of high pressure.
>
> Michael Thompson
> http://ozthunder.com
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Tim Eckert <teckert at start.com.au>
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
X-Originating-IP: [210.9.136.65]
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 22:27 +1000
X-mailer: AspMail 4.0 4.03 (SMT4DD4B4F)
Subject: Re: aus-wx: high temps
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TV news reports in Adelaide say that tomorrow (38 forecasted) will
equal the all time record for most summer days over 35 degrees. From
memory I think they said the record is 26 days recorded in 1905/06.



Original message from: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
>
>
>I heard a radio "report" that Melbourne looks like having its hottest
>summer for "a long while and Adelaide is even hotter" - end quote
>(whatever that means.)
>With consistently high temps, perhaps Blair could comment on how
things
>are shaping up
>in those cities
>Cheers
>Don W.
>
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From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne WX
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 08:40:33 +1100
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>I heard a radio "report" that Melbourne looks like having its hottest
>summer for "a long while and Adelaide is even hotter" - end quote
>(whatever that means.)
>With consistently high temps, perhaps Blair could comment on how things
>are shaping up
>in those cities
>Cheers
>Don W.

Don.. according to one of our other (not Blair) weather encyclopaedia 

"hi folks,

by my calculations, Melbourne's mean max so far this summer is 28.0 & to
equal the record of 28.3 set in 1950/51, we need to average 31.0 for the
remainder of the month. to break the record, we need to accumulate 310.4
degrees over the last 10 days - that would give a mean summer max of 28.34,
compared with 50/51 28.33.


regards,

Grant"

Yesterday was 35.2C so we no need 275.2C over 9 days. Today and tomorrow
SHOULD average between them 35C, meaning with 7 days to go we will need to
accumulate 205.2C - in other words average 29.3C for the last week to have
the hottest Melbourne mean max on record for summer. Looking at the very
long range progs which are in broad agreement we are likely to go very
close. Based on GASP I would estimate temperatures for the Thurs (22)
through Tue (27th) of "29, 30, 24, 28, 35 and 34" meaning we would need ~25C
on the 28th....  Yesterday's ECMWF model run is if anything a touch warmer.
Of course, there is 0.000000001% chance of these number being correct, but
the general indications are that we will have another heatwave late on the
weekend/into early next week which is just what we need to crack the record.
Personally, I am torn between wanting to return to normal... and wanting to
crack a record after enduring such disgusting conditions for the best part
of 3 months.

I haven't looked at the minimum but we must be running pretty close to a
record - on this last night we set a new record for the number of nights
above 20C in Melbourne (now 16) in a calendar year, and on 51 days into the
year.

Cheers,

David.
                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Airshow and dust devils.
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 10:34:17 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Les,

I just got back yesterday after spending 9 days at Avalon for the airshow.

There were dust devils every day, one that I saw yesterday (Monday) lifted a
plastic bag about 600 - 800ft in the air.  Very impressive.

Chris

----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 19, 2001 1:00 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Airshow and dust devils.


> G'day all
> well the airshow was absolutally magnificent, I could watch them jet
> fighters all day! Loud and fast!
> There was quite a few dust devils around too, one went down the middle of
> the crowd and made us all a little dusty!
> Today is looking interesting, there must be a upper level trough near by,
> sky is full of growing Cu here in Colac, although forcast is for fine with
> high cloud, well we'll all have to wait and see.
> cheers
> Les Baxter
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: high temps
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 15:00:49 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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> 
> 
> I heard a radio "report" that Melbourne looks like having its hottest
> summer for "a long while and Adelaide is even hotter" - end quote
> (whatever that means.)
> With consistently high temps, perhaps Blair could comment on how things
> are shaping up
> in those cities
> Cheers

As David mentioned in his mail, Melbourne is touch-and-go for a 
seasonal record mean max, as is Adelaide.

Both centres should set records for the highest summer mean minimum,
and highest seasonal mean temperature (combined max/min).

Melbourne has also set a record today (on February 20!) for the largest 
number of nights (16) with minima above 20 in a calendar year.

(Of course, the numbers in the above two paragraphs are somewhat
influenced by urbanisation, particularly in Melbourne).

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 12:18:36 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Off topic: AFL Football Competition
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi everyone,

We are once again running an AFL tipping competition like we did last year,
below is all the details on how to join.

At 03:08 PM 20/02/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi There,
>
>Last year Jacob Aufdemkampe and myself ran a pretty successful footy 
>competition.  You don't have to chat in #weather to join or be a member of 
>ASWA.  This is open to anyone.  If you want to have a bit of fun please join 
>us and follow the simple instructions below.
>
>NOTE - This is for the main football competition not the Ansett Cup
>
>
>Comp Number:       7420
>Comp Name:         #Weather Footy Competition
>Password to join:  supercell
>
>
>To join:
>----------------
>1.   Go to http://www.OzTips.com
>
>2.   From the home page, select "I'm new and I want to tip", and setup a 
>user account (if you don't already have one on OzTips.com).
>
>3.   Select "I want to join a Tipping Comp" on the home page, or the 
>"Tipping" tab.
>
>4.   Enter the Comp Number and Password details above.
>
>5.   That's it.  Full instructions on how to tip can be found on the site by 
>clicking on the "Help" tab.
>
>Regards,
>Kathryn Jolly
>astrolady99 at netscape.net
>
>-------------------------------------------------------------
>http://www.OzTips.com
>OzTips.com is a FREE service for sports tipping competitions.
>-------------------------------------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 19:10:46 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Probably best to hang in there and you will pick it up. I am still learning
things, and probably will be in 40 years time.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Aussiegirl" <april at ains.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, 19 February 2001 21:16
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !


> Hi guys....
> could someof you please tell me where I can learn about the weather,
clouds etc
>
> I have been readign these emails for a while now... and some of it, well
most
> of it goes right over  my head......
>
> thanks
> April
>
> Michael Thompson wrote:
>
> > Anybody around coastal NSW notice the direction the cirrus was moving
from
> > today. It was coming from the SE.
> >
> > This is quite unusual and sometimes can be associated with east coast
lows,
> > BUT in this case it is much the opposite case with a jet associated with
a
> > horrible ridge of high pressure.
> >
> > Michael Thompson
> > http://ozthunder.com
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 19:09:35 +1100
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Thankfully we have seem to have thrown off the 30C plus days here, it is
much rarer to get these past January here. But the nights are still very
humid and rarely go much below 20C of late.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, 19 February 2001 20:21
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !


> Michael,
>
> We had that same flow yesterday around that upper ridge.  Fortunately it
only
> lasted 24 hours or so & it became quite 'troughy' as today progressed to
the
> extent that there have been scattered middle-level showers late this
afternoon,
> with extensive areas of altocumulus & altostratus (south of the ranges at
> least).  Drops were widely spaced, and you had to work pretty hard to get
even
> vaguely wet - but it was a joy to sit out in 'the rain' for a change.
Only got
> to 36.6C here.
>
> Jane
>
> Michael Thompson wrote:
>
> > Anybody around coastal NSW notice the direction the cirrus was moving
from
> > today. It was coming from the SE.
> >
> > This is quite unusual and sometimes can be associated with east coast
lows,
> > BUT in this case it is much the opposite case with a jet associated with
a
> > horrible ridge of high pressure.
> >
> > Michael Thompson
> > http://ozthunder.com
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 19:13:27 +1100
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HI Clyve.

The early cirrus yesterday here had fall streaks as well.

No high cloud today but the altostratus deck is coming in from the SE still.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, 19 February 2001 21:51
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !


> Hi Michael.
> I sat out the backyard yesterday morning and watched some magnificent
> fallstreaks cascading from dense patches of cirrus,all coming from a
bearing
> of 190 degrees moving at about 40 to 50 knots.The cirrus looked stunning
> when viewed with polarizing glasses. This orientation of the upper flow is
> also most unusual for this part of Aus,however I have noted it can occur
> under these conditions... on the western side of a low pressure system
> moving eastward across eastern Vic,on an occasion yesterday ahead of a
> strong upper level ridge to the west of Victoria and in deep cold unstable
> southwest to southerly airmasses with embedded CBs.The upper atmospheric
> conditions on Sunday were saturated for ice accumulations, the moisture
> appears to have arrived ex former tropical cyclone Vincent/Winsome.All
great
> stuff,I counted 3 spots of rain this afternoon from mid level
> showers!!!!.regards Clyve Herbert.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Michael Thompson <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
> To: Aussie Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>;
> <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, February 19, 2001 8:04 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
>
>
> > Anybody around coastal NSW notice the direction the cirrus was moving
from
> > today. It was coming from the SE.
> >
> > This is quite unusual and sometimes can be associated with east coast
> lows,
> > BUT in this case it is much the opposite case with a jet associated with
a
> > horrible ridge of high pressure.
> >
> > Michael Thompson
> > http://ozthunder.com
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Peter Tristram" <petertri at midcoast.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: rain
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 20:25:21 +1100
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Hellofalotov rain south of Coffs this arvo, 2-4pm - creeks and smaller
rivers well flooded. Repton recorded around 120mm mostly in an hour or so
and a fair bit of lightning as well so my son says. I couldn't access the
radar but it was looking good at 2:30 before the lightning began. Quite cold
now too. Cold air aloft? Seem to still be a few cells to the near south.It's
about time we had a decent summer ECL.

Peter

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 20:25:56 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Situation tomorrow
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

It looks as though tomorrow may have the potential to yield some goos 
shower activity and possibly some thunderstorms. And I think by the 
weekend, we may have interesting developments off the north coast of NSW.

We'll see what happens as things get closer.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [139.134.27.67]
From: "Luke Garde" <sky_city at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Airshow and dust devils.
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 09:50:41 
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 20 Feb 2001 09:50:42.0846 (UTC) FILETIME=[96DA5BE0:01C09B22]
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<x-html>
<html><DIV>
<P><BR>
<DIV>Hi all</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>I also saw the dust devils at the air show on Sunday. They blew the guy off the deck chair in front of me. </DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>What a great show. I had so much fun. Hopefully the 48 shots I took with my new camera turned out (first time to use the camera).</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Cya</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Luke Garde - Victoria&nbsp;</DIV></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-html>
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 21:01:01 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Situation tomorrow
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Jimmy,

Interesting to note that this low has been retrograding steadily for the past
few days after doing the NW loop from NW of NZ.  Melbourne is now under the
influence of one of the outer bands - it's getting bigger & the jets around it
are strengthening!!  Roll on SW Gypsy No 2!!  The low's analysed at 300,
there's a cool pool at 850............and at the surface???

Am I dreaming or are we experiencing some rather unusual system movements this
season??

Jane

Jimmy Deguara wrote:

> Hi all,
>
> It looks as though tomorrow may have the potential to yield some goos
> shower activity and possibly some thunderstorms. And I think by the
> weekend, we may have interesting developments off the north coast of NSW.
>
> We'll see what happens as things get closer.
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

--

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 20:26:20 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: T'Storms in SE QLD Today
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

I was hoping that this upper level low would do something interesting! 
It did, but I was hoping for a nice little rain even before,
unfortunately it wasn't to be (although parts of the north NSW coast got
a fair bit of rain).  The upper level low was right on top of us at 9am
EST - with -13C  at  500mb and a whopping -43C  at  300mb!!!  The shear was
very weak and all over the place indicating the presence of the upper
level low.  Surface DP's generally sat around 16-18C - but the sounding
indicated drier air just above the surface, so the PBL DP's didn't get
much over 15C today.  But temperatures got higher then expected (given
that showers/rain were forecast/seemed like a fair possibility) with 29C
in the city and Ipswich, 27C at the AP.  That's 72C drop in 10km!  Not a
bad little lapse rate that!  At around 2pm and after things really
started happening with CJ's gaining better structure and precipitating
with many light blue speckles on radar (this is significant given that
light blue on radar in these situations actually indicates a 60-100mm/hr
rain rate), I headed to the west of Brisbane, in anticipation of showers
and t'storms forming on the border ranges and to the south of Ipswich
and moving over the Cunningham Hwy.  I figured that the Cunningham Hwy
would be a great place to go being a good N/S road - but alas, little
known to me were the 10-15min traffic delays due to roadworks  at )# at *) at *# 
This foiled my plan, and stuffed me up a fair bit.  None the less, a
brief summary:

- Saw lots of nice little wintery cells
- Saw a nice hail foot
- Lots of nice rain shafts
- Experienced heavy rain (60-80mm/hr)
- Experienced localised water on the road (enough to force you to slow  
down from 110km/h to 60km/h or you'd aqua-plane)
- Heard a rumble of thunder (WAHOOO!!!!!!!!!)
- Shear increased during the day as the upper level low moved to the W
a   little, and I saw anvils streaming to the NW bachsearing to the
SE!    Don't see that too often here!

SDS hitting hard - but it was good fun all up!
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 09:25:10 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Newcastle Herald reporters say Pacific highway has been closed south of
Bulahdelah by flash flooding - reports of "feet of water everywhere" but
Williamtown radar shows only a few bands moving in...obviously unstable
and localised. (For "Mexicans" unfamiliar with NSW Bulahdelah is on
Pacific Hway about half way between Newcaslte and Tarre - prob closer to
Tareee.... Taree has had 45 mm between 9 am and 8 pm.

Don w. 

Peter Tristram wrote:
> 
> Hellofalotov rain south of Coffs this arvo, 2-4pm - creeks and smaller
> rivers well flooded. Repton recorded around 120mm mostly in an hour or so
> and a fair bit of lightning as well so my son says. I couldn't access the
> radar but it was looking good at 2:30 before the lightning began. Quite cold
> now too. Cold air aloft? Seem to still be a few cells to the near south.It's
> about time we had a decent summer ECL.
> 
> Peter
> 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 02:13:03 +1100
From: Aussiegirl <april at ains.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win95; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Aviation and Weather live chat group
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> New group..... Aviation and Weather Chat..

In Paltalk...

group list is in........ meet new people/Australian Aviation/weather


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: tropical stuff.
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 22:16:34 +1100
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Hi all.
There's a fair bit going on across the Australian region today (tonight),of
main interest to me is the upper low moving southwest from the northeast of
NSW, also the tropical depression over northwest Australia seems to have
started to move south southeast over the past 4 hours.The upper low should
be watched for continued retrograde movement over the next 12 hours
especially with 300hpa temps around -43 near Brisbane today,its not often
that upper cold pools move south-westward from near tropical areas!!.
Another area that has me interested is a large and persistent region of
convection near to the Solomon Is (Guadalcanal), some of the convection here
is very large but the upper divergence field seems to be weak at the moment.
This area of activity is sitting at the top of the main feeder band which is
starting to wrap around the upper low in Northern  NSW,if this feeder band
moves in around this system it may  affect the central and south coast of
NSW worth keeping an eye on for a day or so..regards Clyve H.
PS For a wish forecast  perhaps it would be nice to see the upper low over
Northern NSW move southwest and combine with the tropical depression moving
southeast from WA!!!

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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 21:57:45 +1100
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Hi Michael.
The flow pattern across central Vic is next to nothing , a large splotch of
altostratus trying to be altocumulus!! hung around this region most of the
day then slowly evaporated after dusk,I picked two opposite wind flows in
the mid layers with alto stratus lower about 14000ft moving from  the
northeast east at about 5 to 10knotts and above that at about 16000+ a
different species of alto cu moving from the west at about 5 to 10 knots as
well, all very confused. I think central Vic is just on the edge of the
south-easterly flow (at 500hpa+) and also close to the impending westerly
mid flow approaching from the west ahead of the expected cold front
tomorrow,the upper low over north-eastern NSW is dominating a large chunk of
eastern Aus at the moment it will be interesting to see where it will end
up. regards Clyve H..
----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Thompson <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 20, 2001 7:13 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !


> HI Clyve.
>
> The early cirrus yesterday here had fall streaks as well.
>
> No high cloud today but the altostratus deck is coming in from the SE
still.
>
> Michael
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, 19 February 2001 21:51
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
>
>
> > Hi Michael.
> > I sat out the backyard yesterday morning and watched some magnificent
> > fallstreaks cascading from dense patches of cirrus,all coming from a
> bearing
> > of 190 degrees moving at about 40 to 50 knots.The cirrus looked stunning
> > when viewed with polarizing glasses. This orientation of the upper flow
is
> > also most unusual for this part of Aus,however I have noted it can occur
> > under these conditions... on the western side of a low pressure system
> > moving eastward across eastern Vic,on an occasion yesterday ahead of a
> > strong upper level ridge to the west of Victoria and in deep cold
unstable
> > southwest to southerly airmasses with embedded CBs.The upper atmospheric
> > conditions on Sunday were saturated for ice accumulations, the moisture
> > appears to have arrived ex former tropical cyclone Vincent/Winsome.All
> great
> > stuff,I counted 3 spots of rain this afternoon from mid level
> > showers!!!!.regards Clyve Herbert.
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Michael Thompson <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
> > To: Aussie Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>;
> > <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, February 19, 2001 8:04 PM
> > Subject: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
> >
> >
> > > Anybody around coastal NSW notice the direction the cirrus was moving
> from
> > > today. It was coming from the SE.
> > >
> > > This is quite unusual and sometimes can be associated with east coast
> > lows,
> > > BUT in this case it is much the opposite case with a jet associated
with
> a
> > > horrible ridge of high pressure.
> > >
> > > Michael Thompson
> > > http://ozthunder.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 10:54:59 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today
  !
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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All:

The northern hemispheric pattern is changing and shifting toward a spring
flow pattern.  Perhaps fall is approaching in the south and a cool down may
not be far behind for the land of Oz.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Nathan Thompson" <naththo at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 02:47:49 +1030
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Morning les,

Um it may not cool down in Adelaide yet until April. I would still go for
hot and dry for March anyway. Will wait and see how it going with the
Australia weather pattern.

From Nathan.
naththo at one.net.au

----- Original Message -----
From: Leslie R. Lemon <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 21, 2001 2:24 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !


> All:
>
> The northern hemispheric pattern is changing and shifting toward a spring
> flow pattern.  Perhaps fall is approaching in the south and a cool down
may
> not be far behind for the land of Oz.
>
> Les
>
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today  !
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 18:52:32 -0000
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Les,

Can't say I've noticed here yet.

Les (UK)
Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59.5N 01-30W
Storm Chasers / Severe Weather Enthusiasts
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
StormCam:
http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
ICQ: 17296776
----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 20, 2001 3:54 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !


> All:
>
> The northern hemispheric pattern is changing and shifting toward a spring
> flow pattern.  Perhaps fall is approaching in the south and a cool down
may
> not be far behind for the land of Oz.
>
> Les
>
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 08:46:52 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Situation tomorrow
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Jimmy, 

It does look interesting for Sydney today, the 6am EDT sounding has -12C
 at  500mb and -40C  at  300mb it showed MASSIVE cooling in the upper levels,
with the 300mb temp dropping 10C from -30C to -40C in 15hrs!  The DP's
are quite nice on the Sydney sounding and obs, with a moist PBL too
(~20C averaged out), if the temp reaches the forecast of 28C, the LI's
look to hit around -5/-6, and throwing this into a CAPE programme it
gives a rather nice 2500.

Sat pics also suggest some later convective/TS development for Sydney
later.

AC

Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> It looks as though tomorrow may have the potential to yield some goos
> shower activity and possibly some thunderstorms. And I think by the
> weekend, we may have interesting developments off the north coast of NSW.
> 
> We'll see what happens as things get closer.
> 
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> 
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
> 
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> 
> Web Page with Michael Bath
> 
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> 
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> 
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 08:52:02 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Situation tomorrow
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Jane - you took the words out of my mouth!

At the last ASWA meeting the discussion about weird directions of upper
level systems was brought up.  There seems to be a pattern of upper
level systems moving northwards into the Coral Sea/QLD area - then these
drift west, then south before going east again...no doubt the number of
upper level systems in the Coral Sea has kept the numbers of TC's down!

We have had amongst the most unusual jet patterns here that I've ever
seen in Summer!  There has been no truly dominant direction, although
over the past 2 weeks or so we've had a NE-SE jet, which has been
coherent with a strong upper level ridge that has been dominant for a
while (although not any more thanks to the upper level low), although
warm upper level temps may return as the low eventually makes its way
south again.

Would not be surprised to see some substantially colder air from that
low drift into Vic today (Melbourne sounding was -4C  at  500mb last night,
don't be surprised to see much lower 500mb temps around -10C tonight). 
So even Victoria has the potential for something today on the front, it
is a bit dry though although DP's have seemed to have increased o'night,
hopefully they won't go down too much during the day.  But if the upper
level ridge breaks down and some cold air manages to woffle on through,
perhaps you guys will get something to look at too!

AC

Jane ONeill wrote:
> 
> Jimmy,
> 
> Interesting to note that this low has been retrograding steadily for the past
> few days after doing the NW loop from NW of NZ.  Melbourne is now under the
> influence of one of the outer bands - it's getting bigger & the jets around it
> are strengthening!!  Roll on SW Gypsy No 2!!  The low's analysed at 300,
> there's a cool pool at 850............and at the surface???
> 
> Am I dreaming or are we experiencing some rather unusual system movements this
> season??
> 
> Jane
> 
> Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> 
> > Hi all,
> >
> > It looks as though tomorrow may have the potential to yield some goos
> > shower activity and possibly some thunderstorms. And I think by the
> > weekend, we may have interesting developments off the north coast of NSW.
> >
> > We'll see what happens as things get closer.
> >
> > -----------------------------------------
> > Jimmy Deguara
> > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> >
> > from
> > Schofields, Sydney
> > NSW Australia
> >
> > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> >
> > Web Page with Michael Bath
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> > http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> >
> > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
> --
> 
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> 
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> 
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
> 
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Aviation and Weather live chat group
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 12:21:51 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi there Aussiegirl,

For a good learning about weather site, Try:  Australian Weather Links and
News  (type it into Yahoo search engine, it'll be there)

For me, its one of the best places to learn about the weather, and no,
Laurier didn't twist my arm to plug his site, its just a good spot for
learners. :)

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 12:15:36 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane & Other States' Wx
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Hi all,

Lots of CJ's have been developing this morning, more so in the past hour
as I've been watching them move along from the window at work.  The
sounding shows significant warming and a NNW jet (as expected with the
upper level low moving away, although normally the opposite
happens...normally we get a NW'ly jet strengthening and cooler air aloft
as an upper level approaches :)  The jet is 115kn!!!  Very strong for
Brisbane in Feb!  The temps and DP's are a lot better then yesterday
(had we had these surface conditions yesterday it would have been
fantastic!)  -9C  at  500mb and -37C  at  300mb - still might see a thundery
around this afternoon if we're lucky.  Some of the Cu have been
glaciating slightly if you look carefully at the tops of them.

Looking at sat pics and radar looks like showers and storms are forming
along the coast and moving SSW/SW - one north of Nowra pulsed into the
pink.

Also some virga showers in Victoria in that cloud band, just very light
precipitation and since it is fairly dry, I'd say that it wouldn't be
reaching the ground.  The Melbourne sounding shows some interesting
potential with the atmosphere cooling significantly, -4C  at  500mb last
night to -9.5C  at  500mb this morning, although the 300mb temp only cooled
by 2C to -30C.  However the PBL has moistened a lot (as indicated by the
obs) and this will be a big help.  Looking at the current sounding,
Melbourne's convective temp is around 36-37C, this will decrease though
if cooler air continues to move in aloft.

Back to work...

AC
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: T'Storms in SE QLD Today
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 12:24:41 +1000
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Any chance of storms today?

David

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.134.67.3]
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: sydney wx
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 14:36:26 +1100
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<x-flowed>
     Heavy isolated showers/brief thunderstorms are developing around Sydney 
at the moment, had some thunder and heavy stuff at Hornsby, currently a red 
cell near bankstown, the formations of these clouds are very tall and thin 
although explosive, very nice to watch.

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 03:55:24 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: sydney wx
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Rune...
13 mm at East killara in 10 minutes at 11.30 am this morning. no
thunder.
Don w

Rune Peitersen wrote:
> 
>      Heavy isolated showers/brief thunderstorms are developing around Sydney
> at the moment, had some thunder and heavy stuff at Hornsby, currently a red
> cell near bankstown, the formations of these clouds are very tall and thin
> although explosive, very nice to watch.
> 
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 15:32:37 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: New Mobile Phone - Especially Designed for Storm Chasers
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

Well - at last some one has finally brought out a mobile phone for storm
chasers!  Ok - it's not really designed for storm chasers, but look at
these features!

Apologies for the off-topic nature...but I'm slightly insane and when I
saw this phone couldn't resist doing something like this <g>

Stop-watch: Now you can accurately measure the time between a flash of
lightning and thunder!

Shock Resistant: Can withstand a fall of up to 3m onto a hard surface,
no more juggling the video camera, SLR and mobile phone!  Just drop the
mobile and pick it up later, very convenient!

Water Resistant: Rain, hail or flood - you can talk on the phone as it's
water resistant under 1/2m of water for one minute!

Dust Resistant: You can now drop your phone in mud and not have to worry
about it at all!

Automatic Volume Control: Tired of not being able to hear the other
person while standing beside the roadside as a truck roars past?  Worry
no more!  This new phone automatically senses the optimum level - and
will increase the sound if need be for your listening and updating
pleasure.

Manual Display Contrast: Adjust the display so you can see the screen
with or without your sunnies, in bright daylight or while sitting
underneath a dark meso.

7 bar battery and signal strength: Ever wondered if you had 1.5 bars of
signal or 2 bars of signal?  Ever wondered if your battery is nearly 3/4
half full, or 1/4 half full?  Wonder no more!  This little beauty has 7
bars of battery and signal strength to give you exact measurements!!!

Profile Settings: Although standard on most phones now - you can now
adjust profiles for storm chasing, storm watching, storm running, or
even those horrid family events you are forced to attend while there's
storms around so it can quietly ring so you can sneak away to the
bathroom unnoticed to receive the latest info from a fellow storm
chasers.

Callers can be identified through different ring tones: Now you don't
even have to take your eyes off the storm (and the road too!) to know
who's ringing.  And you can also get a longer warning time if it is a
family member who is phoning to hassle you why you are not home yet when
you are still 2hrs away watching storms.

Voice Dialing: Easy use dialing while driving!

Predictive test for SMS: Now you can type SMS messages even quicker, and
it's also much easier to use while driving!  (Not that anyone would be
using their mobile to type a SMS while driving...)

Built in Games: For those times while you're sitting under a tree
waiting for the cap to break.
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Situation tomorrow
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 16:31:17 +1100
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Hi all,

Could someone help me with metres per second converted to kph? I had a guide
but lost it.


Thanks for the help.

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 15:41:36 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone OMA 08F 11P
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All.

The first named South Pacific cyclone has formed SW of Rarotonga.

Links to warnings etc. are on my website at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm.

Regards,
Carl.

>Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI
>Feb 21/0207 UTC 2001.
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA [08F] [985 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 161.5W AT
>210000 UTC.
>POSITION POOR BASED ON GMS IR AND HRES VIS IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING
>SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
>
>CENTRE LOCATED UNDER NORTHWEST EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. OUTFLOW FAIR
>TO GOOD IN NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SECTOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER THE
>250HPA TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM
>INTO THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH
>FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A  RAPIDLY
>SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM UNDER A NORTHWEST STEERING FIELD,
>AND TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY 230000UTC. SOME DRY AIR
>ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY STARTED AFFECTING
>THE SYSTEM. FURTHER INTENSITY CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH EFFECT
>THE SUBSIDING DRY AIR HAS ON THE SYSTEM.
>GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM AND INTENSIFYING IT SLOWLY.
>HOWEVER ALL MODELS AGREE ON A RAPID MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
>
>Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre and
>               winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of the centre
>               winds over 33 knots within 150 miles of the centre in
>the sector
>              from north through east to southwest and within 90
>miles elsewhere.
>
>Forecast position near 26.3S 158.0W at 211200 UTC
>                   and 29.0S 154.5W at 220000 UTC.
>                   and 31.2S 151.5W at 221200 UTC
>                   and 33.5S 147.5W at 230000 UTC.
>
>The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on 08F will be issued around
>210800 UTC.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Lightning Oberon area 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 16:55:50 +1100
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4.50pm 21/02.

Hi all..

While looking out window from my desk can see many  CG's hitting out to S
of Bahturst.. already have phase down around Oconnell rd from Bathurst to
Oberon.  Now raining in Bathurst, only steady though..

Dave
Bathurst

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From: "Shaun Whelan" <wheelsthepusser at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Situation tomorrow
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 17:11:59 +1100
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<x-flowed>
   From memory, multiply mps by 3.6 to get kph. Pls correct me if I'm wrong.

         Shaun          Nowra


>From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Situation tomorrow
>Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 16:31:17 +1100
>
>Hi all,
>
>Could someone help me with metres per second converted to kph? I had a 
>guide
>but lost it.
>
>
>Thanks for the help.
>
>Lindsay Pearce
>Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
>Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au
>
>
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</x-flowed>
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 16:12:47 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Situation tomorrow
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Lindsay and all others curious,

1m/s = 3.6km/h

AC

Lindsay Pearce wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> Could someone help me with metres per second converted to kph? I had a guide
> but lost it.
> 
> Thanks for the help.
> 
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au
> 
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-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Bathurst Storms 
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6.05pm  21/2.

Lightning real active around Bathurst area, lights dimmed twice in office.
1 strike about 200 metres from Advance energy office.


Several areas outside Bathurst affected by many 10's of strikes.  Sofala,
Wattle Flat, Laffing waters. all these towns on way to Mudgee from
Bathurst..   Lightning seen also to South more now.. .

Dave .
Bathurst



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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Situation tomorrow
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 18:24:01 +1100
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Anthony

Situation tomorrow ?

Well, I just can't seem to get it right lately !. I definitely thought SE
Queensland would get more rain from the latest upper low, but here in
Bayside Brisbane, only 15mm in the past week.

It definitely has something to do with all these upper systems affecting
SEQ/northern NSW lately and the repeat rotation that appears to be happening
(every 2 weeks or so).

Usually I can pick a forming TC in the slot, but I think I have been wrong
too many times this particular year, because of upper air pattern (anomaly
?). I guess this variation is what keeps me interested in weather, so I
don't feel too embarrassed (yet) !

I still think the developments in the NW Coral Sea is worth a close watch,
though it looks much more disorganised this afternoon/evening. Maybe it will
be wrapped into a hybrid off the SE QLD coast as I had thought would happen
with the last tropical low in this general area.

Situation tomorrow - too hard to tell in current environment !

Regards
Simon



----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 21, 2001 9:52 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Situation tomorrow


> Hi Jane - you took the words out of my mouth!
>
> At the last ASWA meeting the discussion about weird directions of upper
> level systems was brought up.  There seems to be a pattern of upper
> level systems moving northwards into the Coral Sea/QLD area - then these
> drift west, then south before going east again...no doubt the number of
> upper level systems in the Coral Sea has kept the numbers of TC's down!
>
> We have had amongst the most unusual jet patterns here that I've ever
> seen in Summer!  There has been no truly dominant direction, although
> over the past 2 weeks or so we've had a NE-SE jet, which has been
> coherent with a strong upper level ridge that has been dominant for a
> while (although not any more thanks to the upper level low), although
> warm upper level temps may return as the low eventually makes its way
> south again.
>
> Would not be surprised to see some substantially colder air from that
> low drift into Vic today (Melbourne sounding was -4C  at  500mb last night,
> don't be surprised to see much lower 500mb temps around -10C tonight).
> So even Victoria has the potential for something today on the front, it
> is a bit dry though although DP's have seemed to have increased o'night,
> hopefully they won't go down too much during the day.  But if the upper
> level ridge breaks down and some cold air manages to woffle on through,
> perhaps you guys will get something to look at too!
>
> AC
>
> Jane ONeill wrote:
> >
> > Jimmy,
> >
> > Interesting to note that this low has been retrograding steadily for the
past
> > few days after doing the NW loop from NW of NZ.  Melbourne is now under
the
> > influence of one of the outer bands - it's getting bigger & the jets
around it
> > are strengthening!!  Roll on SW Gypsy No 2!!  The low's analysed at 300,
> > there's a cool pool at 850............and at the surface???
> >
> > Am I dreaming or are we experiencing some rather unusual system
movements this
> > season??
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> >
> > > Hi all,
> > >
> > > It looks as though tomorrow may have the potential to yield some goos
> > > shower activity and possibly some thunderstorms. And I think by the
> > > weekend, we may have interesting developments off the north coast of
NSW.
> > >
> > > We'll see what happens as things get closer.
> > >
> > > -----------------------------------------
> > > Jimmy Deguara
> > > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> > >
> > > from
> > > Schofields, Sydney
> > > NSW Australia
> > >
> > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> > >
> > > Web Page with Michael Bath
> > >
> > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> > >
> > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > >
> > >
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> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > --
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > ASWA - Victoria
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
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your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 19:28:17 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Chaser humour......
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Evening all,

With AC's permission I have put his mobile phone sales pitch up on the
MSC Humour 2001 page at
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour2001.htm

and while looking around my computer I found this little gem which I
wasn't game to make public last year for fear of retribution...but I
reckon that SDS (storm deprivation syndrome) is so widespread atm that I
can almost get away with it.  No disrespect is intended & don't try any
of these things yourself simply because you read about them here - we
are not encouraging...but you are permitted to have a quiet chuckle if
you'd like......
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour2000.htm

please enjoy!!

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Rain near Cooma / Bombala
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 20:24:17 +1100
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The large patch of rain around Bombala this evening has me interested. This
is a radar black spot normally and usually if anything shows it is far more
intense than the radar indicates.

Should be a decent thunderstorm in the area.

Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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From: "Nathan Smith" <ultraguppy at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Mobile Phone - Especially Designed for Storm Chasers
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 19:19:05 +1000
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<x-flowed>
what brand etc is it?

nate


>From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: New Mobile Phone - Especially Designed for Storm Chasers
>Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 15:32:37 +1000
>
>Hi all,
>
>Well - at last some one has finally brought out a mobile phone for storm
>chasers!  Ok - it's not really designed for storm chasers, but look at
>these features!
>
>Apologies for the off-topic nature...but I'm slightly insane and when I
>saw this phone couldn't resist doing something like this <g>
>
>Stop-watch: Now you can accurately measure the time between a flash of
>lightning and thunder!
>
>Shock Resistant: Can withstand a fall of up to 3m onto a hard surface,
>no more juggling the video camera, SLR and mobile phone!  Just drop the
>mobile and pick it up later, very convenient!
>
>Water Resistant: Rain, hail or flood - you can talk on the phone as it's
>water resistant under 1/2m of water for one minute!
>
>Dust Resistant: You can now drop your phone in mud and not have to worry
>about it at all!
>
>Automatic Volume Control: Tired of not being able to hear the other
>person while standing beside the roadside as a truck roars past?  Worry
>no more!  This new phone automatically senses the optimum level - and
>will increase the sound if need be for your listening and updating
>pleasure.
>
>Manual Display Contrast: Adjust the display so you can see the screen
>with or without your sunnies, in bright daylight or while sitting
>underneath a dark meso.
>
>7 bar battery and signal strength: Ever wondered if you had 1.5 bars of
>signal or 2 bars of signal?  Ever wondered if your battery is nearly 3/4
>half full, or 1/4 half full?  Wonder no more!  This little beauty has 7
>bars of battery and signal strength to give you exact measurements!!!
>
>Profile Settings: Although standard on most phones now - you can now
>adjust profiles for storm chasing, storm watching, storm running, or
>even those horrid family events you are forced to attend while there's
>storms around so it can quietly ring so you can sneak away to the
>bathroom unnoticed to receive the latest info from a fellow storm
>chasers.
>
>Callers can be identified through different ring tones: Now you don't
>even have to take your eyes off the storm (and the road too!) to know
>who's ringing.  And you can also get a longer warning time if it is a
>family member who is phoning to hassle you why you are not home yet when
>you are still 2hrs away watching storms.
>
>Voice Dialing: Easy use dialing while driving!
>
>Predictive test for SMS: Now you can type SMS messages even quicker, and
>it's also much easier to use while driving!  (Not that anyone would be
>using their mobile to type a SMS while driving...)
>
>Built in Games: For those times while you're sitting under a tree
>waiting for the cap to break.
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
>Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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</x-flowed>
From: "Patrick Tobin" <patricktobin at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain near Cooma / Bombala
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 20:32:41 +1100
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Yes Michael - well spotted.

The AWS at 8.10pm AEDT shows wind gusts of 80km/hr and 22.8mm in the guage.

The BOM's excellent 48hr data at
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65092/IDN65092.94929.shtml
suggests the action commenced just before 7pm. Looks like Eden is shortly in
for some action as well.

I am having lots of fun with the time series AWS data. By saving it and
analysing it with a spreadsheet program like Excell, it is interesting to
watch the change in various parameters as different major and minor systems
pass through - especially by plotting graphs. Analysing the sea-breeze in
Canberra is one example - you can see the impact of the wind change on
pressure, dew point as well as temperature.

Saw lots of pulse cells develop around Canberra today. Working out which
direction they might move in was well nigh impossible. Developing cells were
almost stationary at their bases, moved to the SE in the mid-levels and then
were (very unusually) sheared back to the NW at the upper cirrus level.

Look forward to some more interesting wx in the next couple of days.

Patrick


-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Thompson <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com <aussie-weather at world.std.com>; Aussie
Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Date: Wednesday, 21 February 2001 20:12
Subject: aus-wx: Rain near Cooma / Bombala


>The large patch of rain around Bombala this evening has me interested. This
>is a radar black spot normally and usually if anything shows it is far more
>intense than the radar indicates.
>
>Should be a decent thunderstorm in the area.
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://ozthunder.com
>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Carolyn" <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain near Cooma / Bombala
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 20:44:30 +1100
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


That is great to hear, they really could do with the rain down there.  My
grandfather will at least be able to use his rain guage!!!!!  LOL

Carolyn


> The large patch of rain around Bombala this evening has me interested.
This
> is a radar black spot normally and usually if anything shows it is far
more
> intense than the radar indicates.
>
> Should be a decent thunderstorm in the area.
>
> Michael Thompson
> http://ozthunder.com
>
>
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Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 19:40:56 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Mobile Phone - Especially Designed for Storm Chasers
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Woops!

Nokia 6250

AC

(Sorry for the one-liner)

Nathan Smith wrote:
> 
> what brand etc is it?
> 
> nate
> 
> >From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: aus-wx: New Mobile Phone - Especially Designed for Storm Chasers
> >Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 15:32:37 +1000
> >
> >Hi all,
> >
> >Well - at last some one has finally brought out a mobile phone for storm
> >chasers!  Ok - it's not really designed for storm chasers, but look at
> >these features!
> >
> >Apologies for the off-topic nature...but I'm slightly insane and when I
> >saw this phone couldn't resist doing something like this <g>
> >
> >Stop-watch: Now you can accurately measure the time between a flash of
> >lightning and thunder!
> >
> >Shock Resistant: Can withstand a fall of up to 3m onto a hard surface,
> >no more juggling the video camera, SLR and mobile phone!  Just drop the
> >mobile and pick it up later, very convenient!
> >
> >Water Resistant: Rain, hail or flood - you can talk on the phone as it's
> >water resistant under 1/2m of water for one minute!
> >
> >Dust Resistant: You can now drop your phone in mud and not have to worry
> >about it at all!
> >
> >Automatic Volume Control: Tired of not being able to hear the other
> >person while standing beside the roadside as a truck roars past?  Worry
> >no more!  This new phone automatically senses the optimum level - and
> >will increase the sound if need be for your listening and updating
> >pleasure.
> >
> >Manual Display Contrast: Adjust the display so you can see the screen
> >with or without your sunnies, in bright daylight or while sitting
> >underneath a dark meso.
> >
> >7 bar battery and signal strength: Ever wondered if you had 1.5 bars of
> >signal or 2 bars of signal?  Ever wondered if your battery is nearly 3/4
> >half full, or 1/4 half full?  Wonder no more!  This little beauty has 7
> >bars of battery and signal strength to give you exact measurements!!!
> >
> >Profile Settings: Although standard on most phones now - you can now
> >adjust profiles for storm chasing, storm watching, storm running, or
> >even those horrid family events you are forced to attend while there's
> >storms around so it can quietly ring so you can sneak away to the
> >bathroom unnoticed to receive the latest info from a fellow storm
> >chasers.
> >
> >Callers can be identified through different ring tones: Now you don't
> >even have to take your eyes off the storm (and the road too!) to know
> >who's ringing.  And you can also get a longer warning time if it is a
> >family member who is phoning to hassle you why you are not home yet when
> >you are still 2hrs away watching storms.
> >
> >Voice Dialing: Easy use dialing while driving!
> >
> >Predictive test for SMS: Now you can type SMS messages even quicker, and
> >it's also much easier to use while driving!  (Not that anyone would be
> >using their mobile to type a SMS while driving...)
> >
> >Built in Games: For those times while you're sitting under a tree
> >waiting for the cap to break.
> >--
> >Anthony Cornelius
> >Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> >Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> >(07) 3390 4812
> >http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> 
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: chris.nitsopoulos at jcu.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Possible Tropical Cyclone Queensland
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 22:57:42 +1000 (AEST)
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Hi All

I may be jumping the gun, but the possibility exists that the area of 
thunderstorms near the Solomons which is moving WSW could develop into a 
cyclone, On Friday or Saturday. I spoke with the Townsville met office and they 
told me that the possibility of it developing increases with time. The 
following probabilities were given to me.

0-24hrs: Nil-Low
24-48hrs: Low
48-72hrs: Moderate
72-96hrs: Moderate-High (If over water still)

I didnt ask for reasoning behind this prediction, any idea from anyone out 
there as to why the potential increases later in the week?

On the Queensland Bureau site it says something similar i.e Low potential for 
the next 48hours then Moderate after that.

It appears the system will cross further north than anticipated (i.e between 
Bowen-Cairns) Not Mackay as first thought. However this changes with every new 
model. Coastal waters forecasts are looking at 25-33knots to the South and 
North of the system. Land forecasts suggest soem quite heavy falls of rain 
developing anywhere from the North Tropical Coast thru to and including the 
Northern Capricornia region, the heaviest falls In the Southern Burdekin and 
Central Coast areas. Definately interesting happenings over the next few days 
around the Queensland coast.

Cheers: Chris Nitso
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 23:45:18 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Situation tomorrow
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Hi Simon,

I thought that it would turn into a rain event too, especially with an
upper level cut-off low and a decent SE to E'ly flow!  But I don't think
the low ended up sitting out to sea for long enough to fully deepen a
trough/low off the coast to continue with the strong winds.  Although
there were gusts between 42 and 46knots regularly occurring at Cape
Moreton on the obs at times.

This then brought TS as a possibility, however they were pulsey and
generally weak, it seems as if the TS in Sydney today was generally of
pulsey nature - can anyone confirm?  Some slightly more persistant cells
to the west of the ranges though I believe.  Also a few cells popped up
in Eastern Vic on the ranges.

Upper levels lows certainly are unpredictable little critters!  As both
you and Chris Nitso have stated, there is yet another possibility for a
TC to form in the Coral.  It would be nice to have the first Coral TC
form!  Have you noticed that some of the tropical lows that have formed
in the Coral have generally gone to extra-tropical nature?  I wonder if
this pattern will continue to TS's if one finally decides to form in the
Coral!

Today was totally different to yesterday, yesterday even though it got
warm, felt cool and dry.  But today felt warm and humid, with no real
NE'ly flow either except for a light seabreeze.  As of 11:40pm it's
still 23/21 here - has been sitting on that for a while now.  Wind is
0km/h from the NE :)  (Ie calm but last wind direction NE).  Some very
nice summery CJ's (quite solid at times) around the place today - and
some nice ACCAS, did anyone see the ACCAS out to sea at around 1:30pm? 
Very nice, long line of As based ACCAS.  Spectacular sunset too tonight
form Ac and a sky full of ACCAS!!

The atmosphere hasn't warmed as much as I'd thought it'd warm, still -8C
 at  500mb, although the 300mb level has warmed a lot, -32C  at  300mb.  But
still quite cool underneath that.  The BoM has plotted 31C/19C on their
sounding tonight to give LI's of -3.  Too much of a long shot to say
chance TS tomorrow unfortunately I think :-(

AC

Simon Clarke wrote:
> 
> Anthony
> 
> Situation tomorrow ?
> 
> Well, I just can't seem to get it right lately !. I definitely thought SE
> Queensland would get more rain from the latest upper low, but here in
> Bayside Brisbane, only 15mm in the past week.
> 
> It definitely has something to do with all these upper systems affecting
> SEQ/northern NSW lately and the repeat rotation that appears to be happening
> (every 2 weeks or so).
> 
> Usually I can pick a forming TC in the slot, but I think I have been wrong
> too many times this particular year, because of upper air pattern (anomaly
> ?). I guess this variation is what keeps me interested in weather, so I
> don't feel too embarrassed (yet) !
> 
> I still think the developments in the NW Coral Sea is worth a close watch,
> though it looks much more disorganised this afternoon/evening. Maybe it will
> be wrapped into a hybrid off the SE QLD coast as I had thought would happen
> with the last tropical low in this general area.
> 
> Situation tomorrow - too hard to tell in current environment !
> 
> Regards
> Simon


-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2001 10:19:52 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Situation tomorrow
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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All:

> Hi Lindsay and all others curious,
> 
> 1m/s = 3.6km/h
> 
> AC

Also:

1m/s = ~ 2 kts.  Actually 1.96 kts if I remember correctly..

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: New Mobile Phone - Especially Designed for Storm Chasers
Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2001 08:02:12 +1000
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How many millions will that cost per unit? :-)

David

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Anthony
Cornelius
Sent: Wednesday, 21 February 2001 3:33 PM
To: Australian Weather Mailing List
Subject: aus-wx: New Mobile Phone - Especially Designed for Storm
Chasers


Hi all,

Well - at last some one has finally brought out a mobile phone for storm
chasers!  Ok - it's not really designed for storm chasers, but look at
these features!

Apologies for the off-topic nature...but I'm slightly insane and when I
saw this phone couldn't resist doing something like this <g>

Stop-watch: Now you can accurately measure the time between a flash of
lightning and thunder!

Shock Resistant: Can withstand a fall of up to 3m onto a hard surface,
no more juggling the video camera, SLR and mobile phone!  Just drop the
mobile and pick it up later, very convenient!

Water Resistant: Rain, hail or flood - you can talk on the phone as it's
water resistant under 1/2m of water for one minute!

Dust Resistant: You can now drop your phone in mud and not have to worry
about it at all!

Automatic Volume Control: Tired of not being able to hear the other
person while standing beside the roadside as a truck roars past?  Worry
no more!  This new phone automatically senses the optimum level - and
will increase the sound if need be for your listening and updating
pleasure.

Manual Display Contrast: Adjust the display so you can see the screen
with or without your sunnies, in bright daylight or while sitting
underneath a dark meso.

7 bar battery and signal strength: Ever wondered if you had 1.5 bars of
signal or 2 bars of signal?  Ever wondered if your battery is nearly 3/4
half full, or 1/4 half full?  Wonder no more!  This little beauty has 7
bars of battery and signal strength to give you exact measurements!!!

Profile Settings: Although standard on most phones now - you can now
adjust profiles for storm chasing, storm watching, storm running, or
even those horrid family events you are forced to attend while there's
storms around so it can quietly ring so you can sneak away to the
bathroom unnoticed to receive the latest info from a fellow storm
chasers.

Callers can be identified through different ring tones: Now you don't
even have to take your eyes off the storm (and the road too!) to know
who's ringing.  And you can also get a longer warning time if it is a
family member who is phoning to hassle you why you are not home yet when
you are still 2hrs away watching storms.

Voice Dialing: Easy use dialing while driving!

Predictive test for SMS: Now you can type SMS messages even quicker, and
it's also much easier to use while driving!  (Not that anyone would be
using their mobile to type a SMS while driving...)

Built in Games: For those times while you're sitting under a tree
waiting for the cap to break.
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: NW EX-TC Wylva
Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2001 09:29:37 +1100
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
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>Hi all.
>There's a fair bit going on across the Australian region today (tonight),of
>main interest to me is the upper low moving southwest from the northeast of
>NSW, also the tropical depression over northwest Australia seems to have
>started to move south southeast over the past 4 hours.

Yea I have been watching this myself Clyve. This LOW, being EX-TC Wylva
really goes down as a remarkably persistent and mobile tropical storm. It
has maintained near TC strength for an entire week over land, and on
numerous occasions in the past week had a cloud structure more impressive
than many a tropical TC. Rainfall, has also been noticeable from this system
with 3 figures falls being generated under its path every day since Friday.
Yesterday's 140mm to 9am at Mandora is impressive, while Wittenoon has
recorded 120mm in the past 9 hours (to 19GMT/Z 21st - 6am Melbourne time)
with heavy rain still falling. The models now have this system drifting
slowly in a southward direction near the WA coast for the next 2-3 days,
before being finally captured by an approaching trough around Sunday. The
slow movement forecasted for the next couple of days combined with the still
healthy cloud structure means flooding in SW WA is a real possibility.

Fingers crossed, we in the SE might even share in some of this rainfall next
week, with SOME models suggesting the potential for rain over Victoria
around Monday, as the remains of Wylva move east. With only 69.8mm in
Melbourne since the start of summer (against an average of 197mm) things are
very grim in the rainfall stakes.


BTW it is well worth watching the developments in the Coral Sea over the
next few days, as the low currently 1002 and associated cold cloud shield is
moving steadily westward (like most tropical lows this week). 

Cheers,

David.


                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2001 10:32:58 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: possible storms
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Morning

Chance of some thundery's around Sydney today with the approaching
change, a nice line of cu boiling away down south has taken my interest,
and I wouldnt be surprised to see some storms shoot up on the ranges a
little later. Also had some
acca's overhead this morning as well...
Keep your eyes open !

Matt Smith

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Met Support 3" <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: possible storms
Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2001 11:01:55 +1100
Organization: The Weather Company
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Hi Matt and all

I must admit I am extremely surprised that there is no mention of storms on
the BoM's Sydney forecast. The sounding this morning shows a very unstable
atmosphere if the temp gets to 31C, which it looks like it probably will,
given it is already into the high 20s in many parts of Sydney. The moisture
layer is quite deep, and with the change coming through later, it looks like
a very nice setup to me. Shear is fairly ordinary, but I'm not that
concerned given the very high instability and the southerly coming through
later.

Will definitely be worth watching...

Matt Pearce

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain near Cooma / Bombala
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2001 11:55:21 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> Yes Michael - well spotted.
> 
> The AWS at 8.10pm AEDT shows wind gusts of 80km/hr and 22.8mm in the guage.
> 

Interestingly, only 6mm at Bombala itself. 36mm at Delegate (which is
to the south-west). Nothing of consequence on the coast.

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: possible storms
Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2001 17:41:27 +1100
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The SE change came through here ( Wollongong ) about lunch time.

However it has done little to drop the temperature and it is very humid
still, quite so for a SE wind actually.

Drizzle should develop within and hour or two of dark.

Michael




> I must admit I am extremely surprised that there is no mention of storms
on
> the BoM's Sydney forecast. The sounding this morning shows a very unstable
> atmosphere if the temp gets to 31C, which it looks like it probably will,
> given it is already into the high 20s in many parts of Sydney. The
moisture
> layer is quite deep, and with the change coming through later, it looks
like
> a very nice setup to me. Shear is fairly ordinary, but I'm not that
> concerned given the very high instability and the southerly coming through
> later.
>
> Will definitely be worth watching...
>
> Matt Pearce
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain near Cooma / Bombala
Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2001 17:31:39 +1100
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Glad to see you are having fun with the data. I wish I had the time.

Regards
Michael

>
> I am having lots of fun with the time series AWS data. By saving it and
> analysing it with a spreadsheet program like Excell, it is interesting to
> watch the change in various parameters as different major and minor
systems
> pass through - especially by plotting graphs. Analysing the sea-breeze in
> Canberra is one example - you can see the impact of the wind change on
> pressure, dew point as well as temperature.
>
> Saw lots of pulse cells develop around Canberra today. Working out which
> direction they might move in was well nigh impossible. Developing cells
were
> almost stationary at their bases, moved to the SE in the mid-levels and
then
> were (very unusually) sheared back to the NW at the upper cirrus level.
>
> Look forward to some more interesting wx in the next couple of days.
>
> Patrick
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael Thompson <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com <aussie-weather at world.std.com>; Aussie
> Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
> Date: Wednesday, 21 February 2001 20:12
> Subject: aus-wx: Rain near Cooma / Bombala
>
>
> >The large patch of rain around Bombala this evening has me interested.
This
> >is a radar black spot normally and usually if anything shows it is far
more
> >intense than the radar indicates.
> >
> >Should be a decent thunderstorm in the area.
> >
> >Michael Thompson
> >http://ozthunder.com
> >
> >
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 08:36:36 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: November 6 Chase Report Finally Up!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all!

I'm a little behind the times, I still have numerous more reports to
write up for Dec/Jan - but here's the Nov 6 chase report:

http://www.bsch.au.com/storm_chasing/06_11_00ac.shtml

This concluded four fantastic days of chasing in SE QLD, to see previous
days look at:

http://www.bsch.au.com/storm_chasing/03_11_00ac.shtml
http://www.bsch.au.com/storm_chasing/04_11_00ac.shtml
http://www.bsch.au.com/storm_chasing/05_11_00ac.shtml
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: BoM Congratulations !
Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2001 18:13:10 +1100
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Especially for those at the BoM (QLD)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I think the TC Bulletin is a fantastic idea !&nbsp; 
(regarding developing Tropical Low in Solomons area). Not only does it raise 
public awareness without being alarmist: it also informs amateur speculators 
such as myself.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>On the point of speculation, I would suggest a 
fairly rapid SW or WSW movement for the next 24 hours before a significant slow 
down in forward motion possibly in the area to the east of Willis Island (there 
is a slight weakness in the ridge to the south and&nbsp;{I suspect} a bit of an 
upper drag toward the south east that may influence this slow down in motion). I 
don't think this drag will be sufficient to recurve the 'potential' TC to the 
south east at this stage (however it may aid in strengthening) and I would 
expect a continued steady westward to west south west motion mid to 
late&nbsp;weekend. After that ????</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That my guess !!!! </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Are there any others ?&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Have fun speculating. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
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Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 13:17:32 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Watch for the N QLD Coast!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

At last - the first of the season for the Coral region!

IDW50Q00 
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre  

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with
this
message.


PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 1055 EST on Friday the 23rd of February 2001

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for Coastal and Island communites
between Cape
Melville and Bowen.

A Tropical Low is centred near latitude 15.5 South longitude 154.5 East,
which
is about 950 kilometres ENE of Cairns and 920 kilometres NE of
Townsville.

The low, with central pressure of 998 hPa, is expected to move towards
the west
and may develop into a Tropical Cyclone over the next 24 to 48 hours. 

People between Cape Melville and Bowen should consider what action they
may need
to take if the cyclone threat increases, and listen to the next Advice
at 5 pm.
If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is available
from your
local government or local State Emergency Service.

The next Advice will be issued at 5 pm EST.
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 12:09:04 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: aus-wx: 10 years ago today
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Most perth people will probably remember this day 10 years ago, when we got
to an amazing temperature of 46.2C on the 23rd February, 1991, which is
still the all time record.

It was even more remarkable since the old record was set only a few weeks
earlier when it hit 45.8C on the 31st January.

Jacob


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From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: WA spin-up?
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 15:10:23 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 23 Feb 2001 04:10:23.0317 (UTC) FILETIME=[8B1AC050:01C09D4E]
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<x-flowed>
Hi every1,

Sayyy...what is that little beast near Onslow off the WA coast (latest 
satpic - 0232Z). Could it be cyclonic?

Hmmnnn...

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WA spin-up?
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 16:34:02 +1100
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Hi Kevin,
Rather odd storm system this, even has anticyclonic outflow from the "CB
cirrus" shield, looks like this thunderstorm CB development has organised
its own inflow outflow mechanism,may be analysed as a small local scale low,
interesting to see what it does over the next 4 hours .....should dissipate
after dark,was there any storm activity in that locality overnight?.regards
Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Kevin Phyland <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 23, 2001 3:10 PM
Subject: aus-wx: WA spin-up?


> Hi every1,
>
> Sayyy...what is that little beast near Onslow off the WA coast (latest
> satpic - 0232Z). Could it be cyclonic?
>
> Hmmnnn...
>
> Cheers,
> Kevin from Wycheproof.
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Tropo stuff.
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 16:45:14 +1100
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Hi all.
Some of the remnant mid and upper cloud from the tropical low over WA this
week has reached central Victoria this afternoon,Yes I know I'm getting
desperate,but at least we are being affected by something,mostly alto
stratus altocu and cirrus with some mammatus too!,we also had some
Wollongong type drizzle this morning!and now we can look forward to the
build-up for winter...cant wait 1040hpa high pressure systems with days and
days of stratocumulus .Anybody want to migrate to Woomera.regards Clyve H...

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Karratha Weather" <karratha at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WA spin-up? - Pilbara Rain
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 15:25:03 +0800
Organization: Karratha Weather Observations
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Hi all

Here in Karratha for the past few days we have had tropical showers coming
down from the north with Ex-TC Wylva passing to the south.  Inland areas got
the bulk of the rain fall with Mt Florance Station receiving a massive 262mm
in the 24hrs to 9am Thursday.  Severe flooding has been reported to the
south of Karratha with 200m of Hamersley Iron's main railway being totally
washed away. At this stage from what ive heard the trains won't be able to
use the track again until at least Tuesday.  This morning Karratha had a
nice little storm at around 10:30am with some nice embedded thunder and
lightning with the moderate rain.
Just emptied the raingauge and we received 75mm in the past 36hrs.

If we get TC or another Tropical Low sometime during March there could be
some pretty serious flooding here in the NW considering the land is already
very saturated.

Regards
JJ
Karratha WA - Currently very muggy and warm 27/25 and 8/8 cloud cover
www.karrathaweather.org
cyclone at karrathaweather.org



----- Original Message -----
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 23, 2001 1:34 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WA spin-up?


> Hi Kevin,
> Rather odd storm system this, even has anticyclonic outflow from the "CB
> cirrus" shield, looks like this thunderstorm CB development has organised
> its own inflow outflow mechanism,may be analysed as a small local scale
low,
> interesting to see what it does over the next 4 hours .....should
dissipate
> after dark,was there any storm activity in that locality
overnight?.regards
> Clyve Herbert.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Kevin Phyland <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, February 23, 2001 3:10 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: WA spin-up?
>
>
> > Hi every1,
> >
> > Sayyy...what is that little beast near Onslow off the WA coast (latest
> > satpic - 0232Z). Could it be cyclonic?
> >
> > Hmmnnn...
> >
> > Cheers,
> > Kevin from Wycheproof.
> >
_________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 17:58:37 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Coral Sea Low - 2 centres?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

I have made a 72 hr false colour satpic loop (32 colours) from BoM JMA GMS5
images up to 222300 UTC (23 11:32 am EST) which I have uploaded at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SatpicLoop.htm - it seems to show 2
centres, with the last few frames showing the one the BoM have a TC Watch
out for moving S and another centre developing just off the Nth Qld coast
and moving N, with both moving around a common centre about half way
between them. Will update the animation sometime after midnight.

Links to all warnings etc. are on my website at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm.

Regards,
Carl.

Carl Smith.
Gold Coast.
Queensland.
Australia.

email: carls at ace-net.com.au
internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/

For convenient downloadable Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps :
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
For links to current Tropical Cyclone information :
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: WAS: aus-wx: WA spin-up? - Pilbara Rain NOW Major NT Floods
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 17:16:01 +0930
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Same here JJ except much much worse.

Police / Defence and others are currently evecuating numerous commuities
from around the VRD district due to EXTENSIVE flooding - kind never seen in
these areas. Reports of 500mm + in several areas in 3 - 4 days. Katherine is
currently playing host to all efected - Borroloola is apparantly almost
unlivable after their floods. Many people lost everything.

A sad reminder about effects of severe weather.......

Rgds, Paul



-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Karratha
Weather
Sent: Friday, 23 February 2001 4:55 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WA spin-up? - Pilbara Rain


Hi all

Here in Karratha for the past few days we have had tropical showers coming
down from the north with Ex-TC Wylva passing to the south.  Inland areas got
the bulk of the rain fall with Mt Florance Station receiving a massive 262mm
in the 24hrs to 9am Thursday.  Severe flooding has been reported to the
south of Karratha with 200m of Hamersley Iron's main railway being totally
washed away. At this stage from what ive heard the trains won't be able to
use the track again until at least Tuesday.  This morning Karratha had a
nice little storm at around 10:30am with some nice embedded thunder and
lightning with the moderate rain.
Just emptied the raingauge and we received 75mm in the past 36hrs.

If we get TC or another Tropical Low sometime during March there could be
some pretty serious flooding here in the NW considering the land is already
very saturated.

Regards
JJ
Karratha WA - Currently very muggy and warm 27/25 and 8/8 cloud cover
www.karrathaweather.org
cyclone at karrathaweather.org



----- Original Message -----
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 23, 2001 1:34 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WA spin-up?


> Hi Kevin,
> Rather odd storm system this, even has anticyclonic outflow from the "CB
> cirrus" shield, looks like this thunderstorm CB development has organised
> its own inflow outflow mechanism,may be analysed as a small local scale
low,
> interesting to see what it does over the next 4 hours .....should
dissipate
> after dark,was there any storm activity in that locality
overnight?.regards
> Clyve Herbert.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Kevin Phyland <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, February 23, 2001 3:10 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: WA spin-up?
>
>
> > Hi every1,
> >
> > Sayyy...what is that little beast near Onslow off the WA coast (latest
> > satpic - 0232Z). Could it be cyclonic?
> >
> > Hmmnnn...
> >
> > Cheers,
> > Kevin from Wycheproof.
> >
_________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Watch for the N QLD Coast!
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 18:01:43 +1100
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Anthony

The first watch for the east QLD coast - that is.

Will it make to TC strength ? That is the question. I still suspect a slow
down in forward motion - perhaps overnight. So may be we will have Abigail
sometime tomorrow. May be not.

I note JTWC has upgraded its advisories and is recognising the low is
approaching a more favourable upper environment, but has a higher central
pressure than BoM. They are usually much quicker to call a TC as they appear
to use a different system of classification.

No rain for SEQ though. :(

You thoughts ?

Regards
Simon


----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 23, 2001 2:17 PM
Subject: aus-wx: TC Watch for the N QLD Coast!


> At last - the first of the season for the Coral region!
>
> IDW50Q00
> BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> Queensland Region
> Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
> Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with
> this
> message.
>
>
> PRIORITY
> TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
> Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
> For 1055 EST on Friday the 23rd of February 2001
>
> A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for Coastal and Island communites
> between Cape
> Melville and Bowen.
>
> A Tropical Low is centred near latitude 15.5 South longitude 154.5 East,
> which
> is about 950 kilometres ENE of Cairns and 920 kilometres NE of
> Townsville.
>
> The low, with central pressure of 998 hPa, is expected to move towards
> the west
> and may develop into a Tropical Cyclone over the next 24 to 48 hours.
>
> People between Cape Melville and Bowen should consider what action they
> may need
> to take if the cyclone threat increases, and listen to the next Advice
> at 5 pm.
> If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is available
> from your
> local government or local State Emergency Service.
>
> The next Advice will be issued at 5 pm EST.
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coral Sea Low - 2 centres?
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 18:16:23 +1100
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Carl

I had thought that at first this afternoon and even thought the cluster of
storms closer to the QLD coast to be more impressive than that farther out
to sea. However I guess it depends where the low level circulation is most
dominant and this may not be truly reflected in the storm clusters that
flare up in the sat pic. However this scenario certainly will confuse things
a bit and makes for interesting watching overnight and tomorrow.

Regards
Simon


----- Original Message -----
From: "Carl Smith" <carls at ace-net.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>;
<aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Sent: Friday, February 23, 2001 6:58 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Coral Sea Low - 2 centres?


> Hi All.
>
> I have made a 72 hr false colour satpic loop (32 colours) from BoM JMA
GMS5
> images up to 222300 UTC (23 11:32 am EST) which I have uploaded at
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SatpicLoop.htm - it seems to show 2
> centres, with the last few frames showing the one the BoM have a TC Watch
> out for moving S and another centre developing just off the Nth Qld coast
> and moving N, with both moving around a common centre about half way
> between them. Will update the animation sometime after midnight.
>
> Links to all warnings etc. are on my website at
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm.
>
> Regards,
> Carl.
>
> Carl Smith.
> Gold Coast.
> Queensland.
> Australia.
>
> email: carls at ace-net.com.au
> internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/
>
> For convenient downloadable Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps :
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
> For links to current Tropical Cyclone information :
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 19:00:20 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coral Sea Low - 2 centres?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Carl,

I was wondering this last night and this morning, but wasn't sure if it
was just an extension of the trough, and very weak low nearby. 
Interestingly, the upper levels are much nicer (good upper level
anticyclonic outflow and divergence) just off the QLD coast, where as
the actual main tropical low itself has poorer anticyclonic outflow. 
This was particularly noticable on:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/winds/wgmsdvSE.html

But is currently down :-(

There has been a fair jet (50kn) to the south of the general area and it
has been weakening a fair bit.

Had a nice burst of convection on the annimated NASA/MSFC (GMS-5) IR
earlier today, although has died off a little.  Should see some more
start overnight hopefully.

AC

Carl Smith wrote:
> 
> Hi All.
> 
> I have made a 72 hr false colour satpic loop (32 colours) from BoM JMA GMS5
> images up to 222300 UTC (23 11:32 am EST) which I have uploaded at
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SatpicLoop.htm - it seems to show 2
> centres, with the last few frames showing the one the BoM have a TC Watch
> out for moving S and another centre developing just off the Nth Qld coast
> and moving N, with both moving around a common centre about half way
> between them. Will update the animation sometime after midnight.
> 
> Links to all warnings etc. are on my website at
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm.
> 
> Regards,
> Carl.
> 
> Carl Smith.
> Gold Coast.
> Queensland.
> Australia.
> 
> email: carls at ace-net.com.au
> internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/
> 
> For convenient downloadable Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps :
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
> For links to current Tropical Cyclone information :
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 19:06:25 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane CBD vs AP Temps
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Blair and all,

I know this discussion came up last year - but it was more a
spectaculation on the potential differences in the new Brisbane CBD site
and the Brisbane AP site.  I still think that the Brisbane CBD has
constantly had warmer max temps, especially in summer since it has been
implemented.  Blair - do you have any information on this now that 7 or
so months have gone by?
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 01:16:43 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coral Sea Low - 2 centres?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Anthony and All.

>Hi Carl,
>
>I was wondering this last night and this morning, but wasn't sure if it
>was just an extension of the trough, and very weak low nearby.
>Interestingly, the upper levels are much nicer (good upper level
>anticyclonic outflow and divergence) just off the QLD coast, where as
>the actual main tropical low itself has poorer anticyclonic outflow.
>This was particularly noticable on:
>
>http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/winds/wgmsdvSE.html
>
>But is currently down :-(
>
>There has been a fair jet (50kn) to the south of the general area and it
>has been weakening a fair bit.
>
>Had a nice burst of convection on the annimated NASA/MSFC (GMS-5) IR
>earlier today, although has died off a little.  Should see some more
>start overnight hopefully.
>
>AC
<snip>

I have updated the animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SatpicLoop.htm to the 231132 UTC (23 9:32
pm EST) image.

The bit now crossing Cape York actually seems better organised, and the
cloud over the low itself seems to have fragmented into clumps, so I doubt
it will become a cyclone, although the whole area now seems to be more
prominent.

I think there will be more potential for another Gulf cyclone in a couple
of days if the bit crossing Cape York can get it's act together after the
rest of it hits the Townsville area, however it could all be moving too
fast to stay in the Gulf long enough. The Territory could be in for another
drenching next week.

Regards,
Carl.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 00:57:32 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coral Sea Low - 2 centres?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Simon

>Carl
>
>I had thought that at first this afternoon and even thought the cluster of
>storms closer to the QLD coast to be more impressive than that farther out
>to sea. However I guess it depends where the low level circulation is most
>dominant and this may not be truly reflected in the storm clusters that
>flare up in the sat pic. However this scenario certainly will confuse things
>a bit and makes for interesting watching overnight and tomorrow.
>
>Regards
>Simon

Yes, for a while the bit closer to the coast was looking better than the
bit the TC Watch was out for, but it seems to be spreading out across Cape
York now, and I think the bit approaching Townsville will be a bit of a
fizzer if the latest satpic is anything to go by.

Carl.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 10:00:48 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Abigail is Born!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

At last - the first Coral Sea TC of the season!!!!!!  It has had an eye
on radar now for the past 1.5hrs.  It also looks like Abigail will be
one of the shortest lived TC's on record...(is there a record?)


IDW50Q00 
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre  

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with
this
warning. 


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 0955 EST on Saturday the 24th of February 2001

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
Cooktown
and Cardwell.

A Cyclone WATCH extends southwards to Townsville.

Tropical Cyclone ABIGAIL, Category 1, has formed near latitude 16.7
South
longitude 146.2 East, which is about 60 kilometres east-northeast of
Cairns. 

The Cyclone is moving steadily westward and is expected to be close to
the coast
 near Cairns in the early afternoon.

Gales may soon develop in coastal and island areas between Cooktown and
Cardwell.                            

The tide will be above normal between Innisfail and Cardwell but should
not
exceed high water mark.
Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

Heavy to flood rain is expected near and south of the cyclone later
today. 

Details of Tropical Cyclone ABIGAIL for 10 am:
Central Pressure   : 992 hPa Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
                     latitude 16.7 degrees south
                     longitude 146.2 degrees east
                     about 60 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns
Recent Movement    : west at 25 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour.

People between Cooktown and Cardwell should take precautions and listen
to the
next advice. If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is
available from your local government office or local State Emergency
Service.

The next advice will be issued at 11 am EST.
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 13:26:53 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Abigail downgraded - satpic animation updated
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

TC Abigail has crossed the coast N of Cairns and been downgraded.

I have updated the satpic animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SatpicLoop.htm, where you can see the 2
centres of this system spiral around each other to become one cyclone just
off Cairns in the final frame at 23 2332 UTC (24 09:32 EST) - quite unusual!

BoM TCA#10 pasted below.

Regards,
Carl.


>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 1300 EST on Saturday the 24th of February 2001
>
>The Cyclone WARNING is cancelled for coastal and island communities
>between Cape
>Tribulation and Innisfail.
>
>Ex-Tropical Cyclone ABIGAIL is just inland about 35 kilometres northwest of
>Cairns.
>
>The cyclone has weakened into a rain depression and should continue moving
>west.
>
>
>Heavy to flood rain is expected to develop on the north tropical coast and
>adjacent inland areas.
>
>A Flood Warning is current for the Barron River and coastal streams between
>Cooktown and Innisfail.
>
>Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone ABIGAIL, for 1 pm:
>Central Pressure   : 995 hPa Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
>                     latitude 16.5 degrees south
>                     longitude 145.3 degrees east
>                     about 35 kilometres northwest of Cairns
>Recent Movement    : west at 10 kilometres per hour
>Maximum wind gusts : 70 kilometres per hour.
>
>Further information on the rain depression can be found in Flood Warnings for
>the region.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2001 19:00:19 +1100
Subject: aus-wx: weather on ACA
From: "Mark Hardy" <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Folks in QLD, SA and WA
An interesting story coming up tonight on Ch 9 A Current Affair about
weather presenters. Will be on at 6:45 local time.

Mark
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
http://www.theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Abigail downgraded - satpic animation updated
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 14:34:50 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Carl & Anthony

Carl, from your latest animation, it does appear as though two became one !
This may account for the very rapid west/south-westward motion of the main
centre.

Anthony, as for the shortest lived, I think maybe there may still be some
more life yet. As this system is on a course of slightly north of west, it
may bring ex-Abigail to the Gulf in about 24 - 36 hours.

I had suspected a slow down or even a loop, but I think the upper easterly
influence will take the circulation into the SE Gulf where it may regenerate
and then stall/strengthen ??????

(as an aside - watch for the possibility of a sympathetic follower from NE
of the Solomons over the next few days)


Regards
Simon



----- Original Message -----
From: "Carl Smith" <carls at ace-net.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>;
<aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Sent: Saturday, February 24, 2001 2:26 PM
Subject: aus-wx: TC Abigail downgraded - satpic animation updated


> Hi All.
>
> TC Abigail has crossed the coast N of Cairns and been downgraded.
>
> I have updated the satpic animation at
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SatpicLoop.htm, where you can see the 2
> centres of this system spiral around each other to become one cyclone just
> off Cairns in the final frame at 23 2332 UTC (24 09:32 EST) - quite
unusual!
>
> BoM TCA#10 pasted below.
>
> Regards,
> Carl.
>
>
> >IDW50Q00
> >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> >Queensland Region
> >Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
> >
> >Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
> >warning.
> >
> >
> >TOP PRIORITY
> >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
> >Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
> >For 1300 EST on Saturday the 24th of February 2001
> >
> >The Cyclone WARNING is cancelled for coastal and island communities
> >between Cape
> >Tribulation and Innisfail.
> >
> >Ex-Tropical Cyclone ABIGAIL is just inland about 35 kilometres northwest
of
> >Cairns.
> >
> >The cyclone has weakened into a rain depression and should continue
moving
> >west.
> >
> >
> >Heavy to flood rain is expected to develop on the north tropical coast
and
> >adjacent inland areas.
> >
> >A Flood Warning is current for the Barron River and coastal streams
between
> >Cooktown and Innisfail.
> >
> >Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone ABIGAIL, for 1 pm:
> >Central Pressure   : 995 hPa Hectopascals
> >Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
> >                     latitude 16.5 degrees south
> >                     longitude 145.3 degrees east
> >                     about 35 kilometres northwest of Cairns
> >Recent Movement    : west at 10 kilometres per hour
> >Maximum wind gusts : 70 kilometres per hour.
> >
> >Further information on the rain depression can be found in Flood Warnings
for
> >the region.
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [202.76.128.22]
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence0312 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Temporary MSC pages
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 16:03:07 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 24 Feb 2001 05:03:08.0093 (UTC) FILETIME=[13DEFED0:01C09E1F]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Unfortunately, the '.au.com' sites all seem to have fallen over until at 
least sometime during business hours next week (aah, the joys
of the internet.......) - so until then I've created the following pages so 
that at least they are available

http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/forecasting.htm
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/why.htm
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/feb01.htm

If you find yourself somewhere that comes up with a '404' Error or 'page not 
found', try replacing the part of the page URL that reads
stormchasers.au.com
with
rubix.net.au/~cadence
and you might find the page you're after.  Please bear with me until this 
gets sorted out.

Please also use the email address below atm.

Thanks,

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at rubix.net.au

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 13:19:06 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at rubix.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Severe storms - Victoria 4th Feb
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Afternoon all,

I've added 6 of Bussy's photos from Rutherglen on the 4th February,
showing the gust front from a different angle - looked just as menacing
from that side!!  The pic of the tree down is close to where a caravan &

horse float were blown over.
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_02_01.htm

and also regarding the same day but down near Shepparton.....
4 pages from the Shepparton News (5th February) - large images -
courtesy of a friend at Dept Natural Resources & Environment up that way

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_02sn.htm
(warning re file sizes: when you click on the thumbnails will take a
while to load on a new page)

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p502-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.141.248] claimed to be d8528hn1.ihug.com.au
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 16:37:52 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Online Storm News updates
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I have uploaded another chase from the 18th December 2000 of an electrical 
storm. It has short video clips of two reasonably close lightning bolts and 
"shot gun" thunder (new slang term)...

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2000/docs/0012-01.htm


I have also taken the time to upload the beaver tail report as well with a 
video clip of it and the whole storm structure:

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2000/docs/0011-05.htm

Please enjoy...

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 16:40:29 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe storms - Victoria 4th Feb
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Newspaper article Article "shepp3t" down the bottom.. "lightening" someone
editor cannot spell.

Matt

Jane ONeill wrote:

> Afternoon all,
>
> I've added 6 of Bussy's photos from Rutherglen on the 4th February,
> showing the gust front from a different angle - looked just as menacing
> from that side!!  The pic of the tree down is close to where a caravan &
>
> horse float were blown over.
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_02_01.htm
>
> and also regarding the same day but down near Shepparton.....
> 4 pages from the Shepparton News (5th February) - large images -
> courtesy of a friend at Dept Natural Resources & Environment up that way
>
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_02sn.htm
> (warning re file sizes: when you click on the thumbnails will take a
> while to load on a new page)
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 16:59:58 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Test - ignore
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

test

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Watch now for Ex-Abigail for Gulf
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 18:57:55 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 1910 EST on Saturday the 24th of February 2001

A Tropical Cyclone Watch has been declared for coastal and island
communities
between Cape Keerweer and the Queensland/Northern Territory border.

At 7 PM[EST], a low, Ex-Tropical Cyclone "Abigail", was moving slowly across
the
base of the Peninsula.

This low could re-intensify into a tropical cyclone in the SE gulf of
Carpentaria early Monday morning and may affect coastal and Island
communities
between Cape Keerweer and the border.

People between Cape Keerweer and the border should consider action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice
at 11
PM[EST].

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 20:45:53 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: More Chase Reports!  December 2000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

I've also finished the following two reports, first is December 12 where
Paul Yole and I chased on the Eastern Downs and received 3-4cm hail and
100km/h winds:

http://www.bsch.au.com/storm_chasing/12_12_00ac.shtml

And December 25 to December 27 Christmas thunderstorms gave a fun chase
with Jason Rainforest on Dec 26:

http://www.bsch.au.com/storm_chasing/25-27_12_00ac.shtml

More to come soon!
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.134.165.61]
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Foxtel weather
Date: Sun, 25 Feb 2001 11:36:00 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 25 Feb 2001 00:36:03.0877 (UTC) FILETIME=[EF1B6D50:01C09EC2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
    Gday all,
  I heard a while back that foxtel weather might change to the presentations 
made by The Weather Channel, is that still on the cards?  Foxtel weather is 
crap, except the radar and satelite loop.  How do they come up with their 
forecasts? The other day katoomba, campbelltown were fine with 0% rain, 
while penrith and bankstown were Tstorms with 80% rain. and sydney city was 
showers clearing.  I hope they change it because the weather channels 
presentation is great.

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Karratha Weather" <karratha at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Watch now for Ex-Abigail for Gulf
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2001 23:27:12 +0800
Organization: Karratha Weather Observations
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hey Paul & All

I just had a look at the latest sat pics and it looks like TC Abigail could
be in SE Gulf of Carpentaria as early as Sunday morning !
Also the Watch has been extended further west to Port Roper in the NT.
Latest BoM track map: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW55Q04.shtml
Who knows....could this be a female version of TC Steve ? :) We'll have to
wait and see....by this time next weekend I think we'll know ;)
http://www.bom.gov.au/info/cyclone/steve/index.shtml <=== Tropical Cyclone
Steve BoM report for those who don't know what Steve did last year.
With all the water already over the Top End at the moment, I would expect
Abigail to maintain her structure as a deep tropical low as she moves
westwards across the northern NT.

Latest advice from the QLD BoM:

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
message.


PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 2330 EST on Saturday the 24th of February 2001

A Tropical Cyclone Watch has been declared for Coastal and Island
communities
between Cape Keerweer and Port Roper [in the Northern Territory].

At 11 PM EST [10:30 PM CST], a low, Ex-Tropical Cyclone "Abigail", was
located
at Latitude 16.7S Longitude 143.5E with a central pressure of 997hPa. The
low
was continuing to move westward across the base of the Peninsula.

The low is expected to move into the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria on
Sunday. It
may re-intensify into a tropical cyclone on Monday and affect Coastal and
Island
communities between Cape Keerweer and Port Roper.

Heavy rain may cause further flooding in the southwestern Gulf of
Carpentaria
from late Sunday.

People between Cape Keerweer and Port Roper should consider action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice
at
5 AM EST [4:30 AM CST] on Sunday.

Regards
JJ

Karratha W.A
www.karrathaweather.org


----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>;
<aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 24, 2001 5:27 PM
Subject: aus-wx: TC Watch now for Ex-Abigail for Gulf


>
> PRIORITY
> TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
> Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
> For 1910 EST on Saturday the 24th of February 2001
>
> A Tropical Cyclone Watch has been declared for coastal and island
> communities
> between Cape Keerweer and the Queensland/Northern Territory border.
>
> At 7 PM[EST], a low, Ex-Tropical Cyclone "Abigail", was moving slowly
across
> the
> base of the Peninsula.
>
> This low could re-intensify into a tropical cyclone in the SE gulf of
> Carpentaria early Monday morning and may affect coastal and Island
> communities
> between Cape Keerweer and the border.
>
> People between Cape Keerweer and the border should consider action they
will
> need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice
> at 11
> PM[EST].
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Some chase reports - 4th Jan & 4th Feb - Southern Highlands.
Date: Sun, 25 Feb 2001 14:36:08 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

At last I have put up a couple more chase reports.

4th January 2001 - A non severe storm, but with a definite rotating base -
see what you think.
http://ozthunder.com/chase/chase20.htm

4th February 2001 - Some severe storms occurred over the southern highlands
with some flash flooding. But the best action was around the Picton area
late in the day. Only the second time in my life that CG activity was
frequent enough to have me retreating to the car.
http://ozthunder.com/chase/chase21.htm



Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Foxtel weather
Date: Sun, 25 Feb 2001 14:42:21 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Write to Foxtel and urge them to carry the Weather Channel. In fact I urge
all Sydney folks with Foxtel to do this.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, 25 February 2001 11:36
Subject: aus-wx: Foxtel weather


>     Gday all,
>   I heard a while back that foxtel weather might change to the
presentations
> made by The Weather Channel, is that still on the cards?  Foxtel weather
is
> crap, except the radar and satelite loop.  How do they come up with their
> forecasts? The other day katoomba, campbelltown were fine with 0% rain,
> while penrith and bankstown were Tstorms with 80% rain. and sydney city
was
> showers clearing.  I hope they change it because the weather channels
> presentation is great.
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe storms - Victoria 4th Feb
Date: Sun, 25 Feb 2001 14:44:32 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Great pics, better than any 'local' storm in the Illawarra so far this
season.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at rubix.net.au>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, 24 February 2001 13:19
Subject: aus-wx: Severe storms - Victoria 4th Feb


> Afternoon all,
>
> I've added 6 of Bussy's photos from Rutherglen on the 4th February,
> showing the gust front from a different angle - looked just as menacing
> from that side!!  The pic of the tree down is close to where a caravan &
>
> horse float were blown over.
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_02_01.htm
>
> and also regarding the same day but down near Shepparton.....
> 4 pages from the Shepparton News (5th February) - large images -
> courtesy of a friend at Dept Natural Resources & Environment up that way
>
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_02sn.htm
> (warning re file sizes: when you click on the thumbnails will take a
> while to load on a new page)
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [202.76.128.22]
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence0312 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Big storms in WA
Date: Sun, 25 Feb 2001 23:08:53 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 25 Feb 2001 12:08:53.0716 (UTC) FILETIME=[B8A97940:01C09F23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Evening all,

Big storms in WA atm.  A check of the soundings shows a serious lapse rate 
from 300hPa up: -29C to -39C between 300 & 250 hPa.  Very moist through a a 
great depth of the atmosphere - also cold at 200hPa at -50C - not surprising 
that some of these storms have very high tops!!!! - some of them are 
probably getting into the 200hPa level.

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at rubix.net.au

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Sun, 25 Feb 2001 14:45:18 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: JCU coloured IR images
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Afternoon all,

If you've been having trouble uploading the most current JCU images for
the past couple of days, their ftp server seems to have ground to a
halt  & the backup site has taken over.

I've updated the links on the MSC Cafe page.....
http://marlin.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/globeflast.gif  (enormous global
image centred on Australia)
http://marlin.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/aushlast.gif (Australian image)

This JCU page will give you an idea of how the servers are running
http://marlin.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/web/metsat.html


Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: BSCH Update - New(ish) Photos
Date: Sun, 25 Feb 2001 14:03:24 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all

Several new photos have been added to the photo galleries

http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/new.shtml

Most of these have been in the reports section for some time, but are well
worth another look.

There is an enormous backlog of photos (and also some video footage stills
from major severe storms in SE QLD over the last 30 years) to add, so this
page will be updated frequently for the next few months.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 25 Feb 2001 18:14:24 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: January 08 Chase Report
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

I have got my January 8 Northern Tablelands to Darling Downs report up -
I met up with Adam Cole from Warwick and headed down into NSW.  We
observed a funnel cloud from the first major cell of the day, and viewed
spectacular updrafts/hailshafts and hail drifts from the second cell on
the eastern downs up to 1/2 a foot!

The URL is:

http://www.bsch.au.com/storm_chasing/08_01_01ac.shtml

Should have some more chase reports up soon!
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 01:09:13 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Next NSW ASWA Meeting !
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Dear aussie-weather list members

The next NSW ASWA meeting will be hold on Saturday March 10 2001.
Venue: The Weather Company, 7 West St North Sydney.
Time: 7pm
Parking: Free in the streets around TWC building.

- On the Agenda, will be the results of the "Members survey" that was
sent out via email. The feedback received will be discussed with members

at the meeting, and try and find out a bit more about what you as a
member would like out of ASWA.
- The main feature of the evening will be a presentation by Jimmy
Deguara (ASWA President) on "Supercells and Case Study Examples".
Jimmy will look at specific supercellular thunderstorms, and discuss
certain aspects.
- Also a summary of recent weather will be discussed, as well as what is

expected within the next few days, as well as a brief discussion about
future meetings.
- The ASWA AGM will also be discussed with updates on what is happening.

- The meeting will be the usual informal gathering and more of a social
evening, and will conclude with pizza (bring a few dollars if you would
like some), and showing of any video footage and photographs of storms
or other severe weather people have taken.

Both members and non members are more than welcome to attend!
If you have an interest in weather, and are not doing anything this
evening, I would strongly urge you to come along, we are a friendly
bunch who all have a similar interest in weather. You will meet and make

lots of new friends and fit in in no time at all!

Hope to see you there!

Matthew Pearce and Matthew Smith
NSW State Representatives of ASWA.



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "TWC" <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Foxtel weather
Date: Sun, 25 Feb 2001 14:17:27 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Rune
We are still negotiating with Foxtel to take the channel. We SEEM to be
getting closer and naturally we hope you will get your wish soon.

The current Foxtel weather channel is an automated service. I set up the
original Foxtel weather channel back in 1995 but the forecasts have changed
since my involvement ceased in 1998. I believe the Sydney, Bankstown and
Penrith forecasts are based on the BOM forecasts. The Katoomba and
Campbelltown forecasts seem to be automatically generated by a model. We too
have seen some wildly inconsistent forecasts across the Sydney area. Foxtel
are aware of the limitations of the current channel and this is factoring
into their decision making.

Glad to hear you like the Weather Channel.

Mark Hardy
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
http://www.theweather.com.au


----- Original Message -----
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, February 25, 2001 11:36 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Foxtel weather


|     Gday all,
|   I heard a while back that foxtel weather might change to the
presentations
| made by The Weather Channel, is that still on the cards?  Foxtel weather
is
| crap, except the radar and satelite loop.  How do they come up with their
| forecasts? The other day katoomba, campbelltown were fine with 0% rain,
| while penrith and bankstown were Tstorms with 80% rain. and sydney city
was
| showers clearing.  I hope they change it because the weather channels
| presentation is great.
|
| _________________________________________________________________________
| Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
|
|  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
|  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
|  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
|  message.
|  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
|

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Karratha Weather" <karratha at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Watch now for Ex-Abigail for Gulf - NOW a TC WARNING
Date: Sun, 25 Feb 2001 10:56:52 +0800
Organization: Karratha Weather Observations
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

hmmmmm took me 12hrs to get that last email to go through :/
Looks like TC Abigail # 2 will form in the next 12-24hrs with a TC Warning
now current for most of the Gulf of Carpentaria coast.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

IMedia: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 1050 EST on Sunday the 25th of February 2001

A Cyclone Warning has been declared for Coastal and Island communities in
the
Gulf of Carpentaria between Kowanyama and Alyangula in the Northern
Territory.
The Cyclone Watch between Kowanyama and Cape Keerweer has been cancelled.

At 11 AM EST [10.30 AM CST], a low, Ex-Tropical Cyclone "Abigail", was
located
at Latitude 16.5S Longitude 141.3E, which is about 200 kilometres east of
Mornington Island. The low had a central pressure of 997hPa and was
continuing
to move westward at about 15 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to move into the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria during
the
day and may re-intensify into a tropical cyclone with gales possible in the
southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Kowanyama and the Queensland/Northern
Territory border this evening and then possibly extending westward around
the
Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday.

Heavy rain may cause flooding along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast
from
later today.

Tides along the coast around the eastern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria
are
expected to be above predicted levels.

Details of Tropical Low at 11am EST [10.30 CST]
Central Pressure   : 997 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
                     latitude 16.5 degrees south
                     longitude 141.3 degrees east
                     about 200 kilometres east of Mornington Island.
Recent Movement    : west at 15 kilometres per hour

People between Kowanyama and Alyangula should consider action they will need
 to
take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at
2 PM EST [1.30 PM CST].

-----------------------------
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 0130 UTC 25 FEBRUARY 2001

IMPORTANT INFORMATION
*   Wind speed refers to the average speed over a 10-minute
    period. Gusts may be up to 40 percent stronger than
    the average speed.
*   Wave and swell heights refer to significant wave heights
    representing the average of the highest one third of
    waves. The likely maximum wave height can be up to
    twice the significant wave height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Low [ex-TC Abigail] 997 hPa centred within 25 nautical
miles of 16.5 S 141.3 E moving west at 08 knots. The low is expected to
develop
into a tropical cyclone in the next 12-24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots expected to increase to 30/40 knots within 12-24
hours. Rough to very rough seas and rising swell.
1200 UTC 25 February:
    16.2 S 139.5 E 992hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre.
0000 UTC 26 February:
    15.7 S 138.0 E 988hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.



DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

It looks like the Top End of the NT is going to experience some more severe
flooding.........Borraloola looks to be ground zero again.....the 3rd TC to
cross the coast there in 3 weeks !

Regards
JJ

Karratha W.A
www.karrathaweather.org


----- Original Message -----
From: "Karratha Weather" <karratha at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 24, 2001 11:27 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Watch now for Ex-Abigail for Gulf


> Hey Paul & All
>
> I just had a look at the latest sat pics and it looks like TC Abigail
could
> be in SE Gulf of Carpentaria as early as Sunday morning !
> Also the Watch has been extended further west to Port Roper in the NT.
> Latest BoM track map: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW55Q04.shtml
> Who knows....could this be a female version of TC Steve ? :) We'll have to
> wait and see....by this time next weekend I think we'll know ;)
> http://www.bom.gov.au/info/cyclone/steve/index.shtml <=== Tropical Cyclone
> Steve BoM report for those who don't know what Steve did last year.
> With all the water already over the Top End at the moment, I would expect
> Abigail to maintain her structure as a deep tropical low as she moves
> westwards across the northern NT.
>
> Latest advice from the QLD BoM:
>
> BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> Queensland Region
> Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
> Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
> message.
>
>
> PRIORITY
> TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
> Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
> For 2330 EST on Saturday the 24th of February 2001
>
> A Tropical Cyclone Watch has been declared for Coastal and Island
> communities
> between Cape Keerweer and Port Roper [in the Northern Territory].
>
> At 11 PM EST [10:30 PM CST], a low, Ex-Tropical Cyclone "Abigail", was
> located
> at Latitude 16.7S Longitude 143.5E with a central pressure of 997hPa. The
> low
> was continuing to move westward across the base of the Peninsula.
>
> The low is expected to move into the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria on
> Sunday. It
> may re-intensify into a tropical cyclone on Monday and affect Coastal and
> Island
> communities between Cape Keerweer and Port Roper.
>
> Heavy rain may cause further flooding in the southwestern Gulf of
> Carpentaria
> from late Sunday.
>
> People between Cape Keerweer and Port Roper should consider action they
will
> need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice
> at
> 5 AM EST [4:30 AM CST] on Sunday.
>
> Regards
> JJ
>
> Karratha W.A
> www.karrathaweather.org


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Karratha Weather" <karratha at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Abigail reforms in the Gulf of Carpentaria
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 03:32:39 +0800
Organization: Karratha Weather Observations
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

With the current slow movement of the TC at the moment I wouldn't be
surprised if intensifies quite rapidly.  It is in an area of low windshear
and on it's expected track it's going to move into more open water in the
central area of the gulf.  We could have a Cat 2 by Monday night in the Gulf
:)

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 0450 EST on Monday the 26th of February 2001

A Cyclone Warning continues for Coastal and Island communities in the Gulf
of
Carpentaria between Kowanyama and Alyangula in the Northern Territory.

At 5 AM EST [4.30 AM CST], Tropical Cyclone "Abigail",central pressure 992
hPa,
was located near Latitude 15.8S Longitude 140.0E, which is about 130
kilometres
northeast of the Mornington Island township. The cyclone has been near
stationary over the last six hours. Abigail is expected to deepen and move
slowly towards the northwest and then west

Gales are possible between Kowanyama and the Queensland/Northern Territory
border this morning and then possibly extending westward around the Gulf of
Carpentaria during the day.

Heavy rain may cause flooding along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast.

Tides along the coast around the eastern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria
are
expected to be above predicted levels.

Details of Tropical cyclone Abigail for 5 am EST [4.30 am CST]
Central Pressure   : 992 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
                     latitude 15.8 degrees south
                     longitude 140.0 degrees east
                     about 130 kilometres northeast of Mornington Island
                     township
Recent Movement    : near stationary.

People between Kowanyama and Alyangula should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice
at
8 AM EST [7.30 AM CST].

And the shipping advice........

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:0:1:24:16S140E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 1930 UTC 25 FEBRUARY 2001

IMPORTANT INFORMATION
*   Wind speed refers to the average speed over a 10-minute
    period. Gusts may be up to 40 percent stronger than
    the average speed.
*   Wave and swell heights refer to significant wave heights
    representing the average of the highest one third of
    waves. The likely maximum wave height can be up to
    twice the significant wave height.

STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical  Cyclone Abigail 992 hPa centred within 25 nautical
miles
of 15.8 S 140.0 E and near stationary.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in the southern semicircle and 120
nautical miles of the centre in the northern semicircle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds to 35 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre and
within
120 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semicircle. Rough to very
rough
seas and a moderate to heavy swell.

0600 UTC 26 February:
    15.5 S 139.5 E 985hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Very rough seas.
1800 UTC 26 February:
    15.5 S 139.0 E 978hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Very rough to high
seas.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.



DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Regards
JJ

Karratha W.A
www.karrathaweather.org




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.54.70.83]
From: "Simon" <borgprocrast at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Back from the USA
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 08:14:13 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 25 Feb 2001 21:14:13.0909 (UTC) FILETIME=[E76AB450:01C09F6F]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<html><DIV>
<P><BR><BR></P>Hi everyone! </DIV>
<P>I'm back from my 6 week honeymoon.</P>
<P>I spent 3 days in California (and 5 hours in Mexico) and then basically 4 weeks in Florida. Weather in Florida was humidly warm (as to be expected) but they are praying for rain and are all on water restrictions. Some rather nice cumulus coverage&nbsp;most of the time (I still think American clouds look different to Australian clouds - they seem over all bigger and puffier!). It only rained once while I was in Florida, and then it poured for about&nbsp;2 hours causing flash flooding (the KFC carpark was a mess). I was borrowing my uncle-in-law's SUV so there was potential for some storm chasing in the north, but... it was my honeymoon, and a quick divorce wasn't what I was seeking. :)</P>
<P>Hope you are all well!<BR>Simon</P>
<P>PS. While I was over there, I cooked up some Aligator with Chili and Lemon juice..... highly recommended!</P><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-html>
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Alto cu central Victoria.
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 09:06:25 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all.
Bands of alto cu castllatus across central Victoria this morning,the Bom has
gone for fine but I would keep a close look at potential storms along the
approaching pre frontal trough. Also TC Abigail may intensify to severe
status today with improving upper divergence and better low to mid
convergence,It will be interesting to see if the outflow max to the west
mixes with the mid latitude trough moving towards the southeast of
Australia.A nice cold air field just west of Tasmania too.regards Clyve
Herbert
PS I hope this email doesn't stall like the proverbial Indian ocean high
pressure!!!!!!....and take 12 hours to get through?

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 10:55:43 +1100
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: A Moment of Silence Please
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Long live the memory of Sir Donald Bradman...

1908 - 2001

Andrew.
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Peter Matters" <pmatters at eck.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Alto cu central Victoria.
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 10:43:46 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Clyve,
     I noticed the AC overhead here in Broadford, and to the south. I am
hopefull also!
Cheers Peter

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of clyve herbert
Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 09:06
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Alto cu central Victoria.


Hi all.
Bands of alto cu castllatus across central Victoria this morning,the Bom has
gone for fine but I would keep a close look at potential storms along the
approaching pre frontal trough. Also TC Abigail may intensify to severe
status today with improving upper divergence and better low to mid
convergence,It will be interesting to see if the outflow max to the west
mixes with the mid latitude trough moving towards the southeast of
Australia.A nice cold air field just west of Tasmania too.regards Clyve
Herbert
PS I hope this email doesn't stall like the proverbial Indian ocean high
pressure!!!!!!....and take 12 hours to get through?

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Peter Matters" <pmatters at eck.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Abigail reforms in the Gulf of Carpentaria
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 10:41:31 +1100
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Hi all,
       Also watch the big developing spiral east of the Solomons!
Cheers Peter

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Karratha
Weather
Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 06:33
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: TC Abigail reforms in the Gulf of Carpentaria


With the current slow movement of the TC at the moment I wouldn't be
surprised if intensifies quite rapidly.  It is in an area of low windshear
and on it's expected track it's going to move into more open water in the
central area of the gulf.  We could have a Cat 2 by Monday night in the Gulf
:)

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 0450 EST on Monday the 26th of February 2001

A Cyclone Warning continues for Coastal and Island communities in the Gulf
of
Carpentaria between Kowanyama and Alyangula in the Northern Territory.

At 5 AM EST [4.30 AM CST], Tropical Cyclone "Abigail",central pressure 992
hPa,
was located near Latitude 15.8S Longitude 140.0E, which is about 130
kilometres
northeast of the Mornington Island township. The cyclone has been near
stationary over the last six hours. Abigail is expected to deepen and move
slowly towards the northwest and then west

Gales are possible between Kowanyama and the Queensland/Northern Territory
border this morning and then possibly extending westward around the Gulf of
Carpentaria during the day.

Heavy rain may cause flooding along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast.

Tides along the coast around the eastern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria
are
expected to be above predicted levels.

Details of Tropical cyclone Abigail for 5 am EST [4.30 am CST]
Central Pressure   : 992 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
                     latitude 15.8 degrees south
                     longitude 140.0 degrees east
                     about 130 kilometres northeast of Mornington Island
                     township
Recent Movement    : near stationary.

People between Kowanyama and Alyangula should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice
at
8 AM EST [7.30 AM CST].

And the shipping advice........

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:0:1:24:16S140E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 1930 UTC 25 FEBRUARY 2001

IMPORTANT INFORMATION
*   Wind speed refers to the average speed over a 10-minute
    period. Gusts may be up to 40 percent stronger than
    the average speed.
*   Wave and swell heights refer to significant wave heights
    representing the average of the highest one third of
    waves. The likely maximum wave height can be up to
    twice the significant wave height.

STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical  Cyclone Abigail 992 hPa centred within 25 nautical
miles
of 15.8 S 140.0 E and near stationary.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in the southern semicircle and 120
nautical miles of the centre in the northern semicircle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds to 35 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre and
within
120 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semicircle. Rough to very
rough
seas and a moderate to heavy swell.

0600 UTC 26 February:
    15.5 S 139.5 E 985hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Very rough seas.
1800 UTC 26 February:
    15.5 S 139.0 E 978hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Very rough to high
seas.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.



DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Regards
JJ

Karratha W.A
www.karrathaweather.org




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Abigail reforms in the Gulf of Carpentaria Eye Developing!
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 11:24:49 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Matt and all.
At 1100 hrs infrared shows a possible eye developing within cyclone Abigail
just north of Melville Is,the radar return shows a rather broad enclosed
apparent eye in the same position. There is also typical weak radar
returns,looks like this baby is growing up and will mature into a possible
severe cyclone today. Also picked up the disturbance near the Solomons this
area seems favoured for this type of activity the upper outflow seems a
little weak and surface convergence is not so good at the moment .regards
Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Peter Matters <pmatters at eck.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 10:41 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Abigail reforms in the Gulf of Carpentaria


> Hi all,
>        Also watch the big developing spiral east of the Solomons!
> Cheers Peter
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Karratha
> Weather
> Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 06:33
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: TC Abigail reforms in the Gulf of Carpentaria
>
>
> With the current slow movement of the TC at the moment I wouldn't be
> surprised if intensifies quite rapidly.  It is in an area of low windshear
> and on it's expected track it's going to move into more open water in the
> central area of the gulf.  We could have a Cat 2 by Monday night in the
Gulf
> :)
>
> BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> Queensland Region
> Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
> Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
> warning.
>
>
> TOP PRIORITY
> TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
> Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
> For 0450 EST on Monday the 26th of February 2001
>
> A Cyclone Warning continues for Coastal and Island communities in the Gulf
> of
> Carpentaria between Kowanyama and Alyangula in the Northern Territory.
>
> At 5 AM EST [4.30 AM CST], Tropical Cyclone "Abigail",central pressure 992
> hPa,
> was located near Latitude 15.8S Longitude 140.0E, which is about 130
> kilometres
> northeast of the Mornington Island township. The cyclone has been near
> stationary over the last six hours. Abigail is expected to deepen and move
> slowly towards the northwest and then west
>
> Gales are possible between Kowanyama and the Queensland/Northern Territory
> border this morning and then possibly extending westward around the Gulf
of
> Carpentaria during the day.
>
> Heavy rain may cause flooding along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria
coast.
>
> Tides along the coast around the eastern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria
> are
> expected to be above predicted levels.
>
> Details of Tropical cyclone Abigail for 5 am EST [4.30 am CST]
> Central Pressure   : 992 Hectopascals
> Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
>                      latitude 15.8 degrees south
>                      longitude 140.0 degrees east
>                      about 130 kilometres northeast of Mornington Island
>                      township
> Recent Movement    : near stationary.
>
> People between Kowanyama and Alyangula should consider what action they
will
> need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice
> at
> 8 AM EST [7.30 AM CST].
>
> And the shipping advice........
>
> BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> Northern Territory Region
> Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
>
> 40:0:1:24:16S140E999:11:00
> SECURITE
>
> HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
>
> HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
> Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
> at 1930 UTC 25 FEBRUARY 2001
>
> IMPORTANT INFORMATION
> *   Wind speed refers to the average speed over a 10-minute
>     period. Gusts may be up to 40 percent stronger than
>     the average speed.
> *   Wave and swell heights refer to significant wave heights
>     representing the average of the highest one third of
>     waves. The likely maximum wave height can be up to
>     twice the significant wave height.
>
> STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
>
> SITUATION
> At 1800 UTC Tropical  Cyclone Abigail 992 hPa centred within 25 nautical
> miles
> of 15.8 S 140.0 E and near stationary.
>
> AREA AFFECTED
> Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in the southern semicircle and 120
> nautical miles of the centre in the northern semicircle.
>
> FORECAST
> Clockwise winds to 35 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre and
> within
> 120 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semicircle. Rough to very
> rough
> seas and a moderate to heavy swell.
>
> 0600 UTC 26 February:
>     15.5 S 139.5 E 985hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Very rough seas.
> 1800 UTC 26 February:
>     15.5 S 139.0 E 978hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Very rough to
high
> seas.
>
> REMARKS
> Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
>
>
>
> DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
> Regards
> JJ
>
> Karratha W.A
> www.karrathaweather.org
>
>
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.27.47.81]
From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Alto cu central Victoria.
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 02:04:16 
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Feb 2001 02:04:16.0312 (UTC) FILETIME=[6C0EAB80:01C09F98]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
AC here also in Colac, although they puff up and then disappear! Quite warm 
too.


>From: "Peter Matters" <pmatters at eck.net.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: Alto cu central Victoria.
>Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 10:43:46 +1100
>
>Clyve,
>      I noticed the AC overhead here in Broadford, and to the south. I am
>hopefull also!
>Cheers Peter
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of clyve herbert
>Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 09:06
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Alto cu central Victoria.
>
>
>Hi all.
>Bands of alto cu castllatus across central Victoria this morning,the Bom 
>has
>gone for fine but I would keep a close look at potential storms along the
>approaching pre frontal trough. Also TC Abigail may intensify to severe
>status today with improving upper divergence and better low to mid
>convergence,It will be interesting to see if the outflow max to the west
>mixes with the mid latitude trough moving towards the southeast of
>Australia.A nice cold air field just west of Tasmania too.regards Clyve
>Herbert
>PS I hope this email doesn't stall like the proverbial Indian ocean high
>pressure!!!!!!....and take 12 hours to get through?
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Twin systems......
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 12:39:37 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
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Hi all - with TC Abigail intensifying in the Gulf - a twin system has formed
in the Northern Hemisphere almost due north of Abigial!!

This is becoming a norm lately...... wonder what causes the phenomena? 

Paul in a Windy Darwin

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\winmail2.dat"
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 15:54:31 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
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Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
century?

David

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 16:04:02 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Abigail Cat 2
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

TC Abigail became Cat 2 some hours back, and looks like it is bearing down
on Mornington Is. As noted by others, it looks good on the radar now, and
the winds are increasing.

It may be upgraded to Cat 3 later today if it keeps developing.

I have updated the satpic loop at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SatpicLoop.htm to 25 2332 UTC = 26 0932
EST.

BoM TCA#19 is pasted below.

Regards,
Carl.


>IDW50Q01
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: For immediate broadcast. Only transmitters serving the southeastern
>Gulf
>of Carpentaria are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.
>Other transmitters should NOT use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 1555 EST on Monday the 26th of February 2001
>
>A Cyclone Warning continues for Coastal and Island communities in the Gulf of
>Carpentaria between Kowanyama and Alyangula in the Northern Territory.
>
>At 4 pm EST [3.30 PM CST], Tropical Cyclone "Abigail", Category 2, with
>central
>pressure 975 hPa, was located near Latitude 16.3 S Longitude 139.5 E, which is
>about 50 kilometres northeast of the Mornington Island township.
>
>The cyclone is moving in a southwesterly direction at about 7 kilometres per
>hour and is expected to deepen further during the afternoon and evening while
>maintaining the slow southwest movement.
>
>Gales are expected between Kowanyama and the Queensland/Northern Territory
>border this afternoon and evening.
>
>In particular destructive wind gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are expected
>over Mornington Island during the remainder of the afternoon and evening
>and may
>extend to the southern Gulf coast this evening.
>
>Gales may extend westward around the Gulf of Carpentaria to Alyangula Tuesday
>morning.
>
>Heavy rain may cause flooding along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast.
>
>As the cyclone approaches the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast a storm surge
>is expected.  This will result in tides being up to 2 metres above predicted
>levels.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone Abigail, Category 2, for 4 PM EST [3.30 PM CST]
>Central Pressure   : 975 Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
>                     latitude 16.3 degrees south
>                     longitude 139.5 degrees east
>                     about 50 kilometres northeast of Mornington Island
>                     township, and
>                     310 kilometres east of Port McArthur
>Recent Movement    : southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
>Maximum wind gusts : 160 kilometres per hour near the centre.
>
>People between Kowanyama and Alyangula should continue preparations and listen
>to the next advice at 5 PM EST [4.30 PM CST].


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Twin systems......
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 17:41:04 +1100
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Paul

Maybe you can see something I don't. I can't see any northern hemispheric
twin just yet.

Do you have any details ?

By the way looks like the Solomon's low is set to move toward the SE and
probably too far away to affect QLD's weather at this stage.

I just wish we could get some more decent rain in SE QLD. The prog looks
poor.

Regards
Simon


----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>; "Aussie
Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 2:09 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Twin systems......


> Hi all - with TC Abigail intensifying in the Gulf - a twin system has
formed
> in the Northern Hemisphere almost due north of Abigial!!
>
> This is becoming a norm lately...... wonder what causes the phenomena?
>
> Paul in a Windy Darwin
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Karratha Weather" <karratha at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Mornington Radar damaged by TC ABigail
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 15:51:48 +0800
Organization: Karratha Weather Observations
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

:(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((

IDR361

Mornington Is. Radar and AWS ceased transmission at 26/0615UTC.
Fault due to damage caused by T.C Abigail. Restoration unknown at
this stage.

Helpdesk Melbourne
Phone: 0396622182

Regards 
JJ

Karratha W.A

www.karrathaweather.org


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 19:54:13 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi David,

A group of chasers were in SE Qld and NNSW in 1998 on an attempted chase 
and all we got was the Great Ridge. But I now look back and say this season 
makes that small period mild.

However, we also got a few bad years in a row in NSW and I think what we 
have in Sydney was more of an average year. I think you guys will have to 
come into NSW and watch an anvil or two.:)

A minute silence for The Don. I think ASWA cricket players will wear black 
bands at their next match.

Jimmy Deguara

At 03:54 PM 26/02/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
>century?
>
>David
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 19:01:06 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Northern NSW T'Storms & Further Potential
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

Some severe thunderstorms along the Northern Tablelands today - these
drifted generally northwards, and one did make it to the QLD border, but
died soon after near Stanthorpe :(

Looks like a similar pattern for tomorrow, with a broad surface trough
drifting closer.  We also have a generally cooler layer of air coming
through aloft in the mid-upper levels.  We could see storms creep
further north tomorrow and perhaps more so even on Wednesday. 
Unfortunately I think they'll generally keep the ranges if anything does
form though.

Currently 26/21 at 7pm here - with a light NE'ly, remnants of the
seabreeze.  Unfortunately the moisture layer has been rather shallow at
times, with most of the moisture coming through on the seabreeze.  We
need this to change (Toowoomba's DP crashed to 9C today!  Although Oakey
remained around 15-17C for most of the day).  Toowoomba is also much
higher so no doubt sitting in some drier air just aloft.  Still, it'd be
nice to see a better PBL DP.  There's also a chance we'll see something
a little more widespread in the SE Coast later this week, but it's
really a case of potential rather then it looks like at this stage.

Perhaps Dave and MB can help try and blow those storms across the border
for us! :-)
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 20:18:10 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms Wednesday
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

The models at this stage have Wednesday a good storm day just south of 
Sydney. Of course it all depends on the position of the cloud band. We 
shall see when it gets closer. I may be getting aches and pains Tuesday 
evening...

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 19:10:37 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi David,

I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
- BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
- and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!

I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
thunderstorm activity.

I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).

Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
Vic's!)

AC

David Findlay wrote:
> 
> Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> century?
> 
> David
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms Wednesday
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 20:51:17 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I also am interested in Wednesday. TT's are very high. The only fear I have
is that it could turn into one of those situations were the activity drops
100km south of you  Wednesday, the trough passes through at 5am Thursday,
and the upper Hunter fires.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 20:18
Subject: aus-wx: Storms Wednesday


> Hi all,
>
> The models at this stage have Wednesday a good storm day just south of
> Sydney. Of course it all depends on the position of the cloud band. We
> shall see when it gets closer. I may be getting aches and pains Tuesday
> evening...
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Karratha Weather" <karratha at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Abigail Cat 2 - Now Severe CAT 3 near the Mornington township 
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 17:49:12 +0800
Organization: Karratha Weather Observations
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

You were right Carl :)
It's continuing to intensify as it approaches the Gulf Coast and has now
been upgraded to Severe Cat 3 status and Mornington Island is now copping
the worst of it.
And we won't know what the winds are like due to the AWS AND RADAR down ! :(
I wouldn't be surprised if it maintains TC intensity a fair way inland after
landfall with the amount of water still sitting over land in the Southern
Gulf region from the past floods !

Latest IR sat image is showing a VERY nice eye
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsd.jpg
0730utc Vis:
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/tc_thumbs/20010226.0731.gms-5.vis.x.ABIGAI
L.12P.jpg


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 1850 EST on Monday the 26th of February 2001

A Cyclone Warning continues for Coastal and Island communities in the Gulf
of
Carpentaria between Kowanyama and Port Roper in the Northern Territory.

At 7 pm EST [6.30 PM CST] Severe Tropical Cyclone "Abigail", Category 3,
with
central pressure 970 hPa, was located near Latitude 16.7 S Longitude 139.1
E,
which is close to the Mornington Island township.

The cyclone is moving in a southwesterly direction at about 15 kilometres
per
hour.

The eye of the cyclone is passing over the western parts of Mornington
Island
but very destructive wind gusts to 170 kilometres per hour are expected to
resume over Mornington Island during the evening and then extend to the
southern
Gulf coast overnight.

Gales are expected between Kowanyama and the Queensland/Northern Territory
border this evening and throughout the night and may extend westward around
the
Gulf of Carpentaria to Port Roper Tuesday morning.

Heavy rain may cause flooding along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast.

The storm surge in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria is producing tides up to
2
metres above predicted levels.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Abigail, Category 3, for 7 PM EST [6.30
PM
CST]
Central Pressure   : 970 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
                     latitude 16.7 degrees south
                     longitude 139.1 degrees east
                     near the Mornington Island township, and 270 kilometres
                     east-southeast of Port McArthur
Recent Movement    : southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds  : out to 60 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 170 kilometres per hour near the centre.

People in the path of the cyclone should remain in shelter until conditions
have
improved and listen to the next advice at 8 PM EST [7.30 PM CST].

Regards
JJ

Karratha W.A
www.karrathaweather.org


----- Original Message -----
From: "Carl Smith" <carls at ace-net.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>;
<aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 2:04 PM
Subject: aus-wx: TC Abigail Cat 2


> Hi All.
>
> TC Abigail became Cat 2 some hours back, and looks like it is bearing down
> on Mornington Is. As noted by others, it looks good on the radar now, and
> the winds are increasing.
>
> It may be upgraded to Cat 3 later today if it keeps developing.
>
> I have updated the satpic loop at
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SatpicLoop.htm to 25 2332 UTC = 26 0932
> EST.
>
> BoM TCA#19 is pasted below.
>
> Regards,
> Carl.
>
>
> >IDW50Q01
> >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> >Queensland Region
> >Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
> >
> >Media: For immediate broadcast. Only transmitters serving the
southeastern
> >Gulf
> >of Carpentaria are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal.
> >Other transmitters should NOT use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.
> >
> >
> >TOP PRIORITY
> >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
> >Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
> >For 1555 EST on Monday the 26th of February 2001
> >
> >A Cyclone Warning continues for Coastal and Island communities in the
Gulf of
> >Carpentaria between Kowanyama and Alyangula in the Northern Territory.
> >
> >At 4 pm EST [3.30 PM CST], Tropical Cyclone "Abigail", Category 2, with
> >central
> >pressure 975 hPa, was located near Latitude 16.3 S Longitude 139.5 E,
which is
> >about 50 kilometres northeast of the Mornington Island township.
> >
> >The cyclone is moving in a southwesterly direction at about 7 kilometres
per
> >hour and is expected to deepen further during the afternoon and evening
while
> >maintaining the slow southwest movement.
> >
> >Gales are expected between Kowanyama and the Queensland/Northern
Territory
> >border this afternoon and evening.
> >
> >In particular destructive wind gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are
expected
> >over Mornington Island during the remainder of the afternoon and evening
> >and may
> >extend to the southern Gulf coast this evening.
> >
> >Gales may extend westward around the Gulf of Carpentaria to Alyangula
Tuesday
> >morning.
> >
> >Heavy rain may cause flooding along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria
coast.
> >
> >As the cyclone approaches the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast a storm
surge
> >is expected.  This will result in tides being up to 2 metres above
predicted
> >levels.
> >
> >Details of Tropical Cyclone Abigail, Category 2, for 4 PM EST [3.30 PM
CST]
> >Central Pressure   : 975 Hectopascals
> >Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
> >                     latitude 16.3 degrees south
> >                     longitude 139.5 degrees east
> >                     about 50 kilometres northeast of Mornington Island
> >                     township, and
> >                     310 kilometres east of Port McArthur
> >Recent Movement    : southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
> >Maximum wind gusts : 160 kilometres per hour near the centre.
> >
> >People between Kowanyama and Alyangula should continue preparations and
listen
> >to the next advice at 5 PM EST [4.30 PM CST].
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 20:16:17 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Anthony et al

I agree, storm numbers down, but quality up. Having said this, I know many
in SEQ may have missed out completely.

But hey, what an unusual season generally and much much better than last
year. Only now does it seem as though a more traditional pattern is
developing.

I would like to think that TC Abigail may move south and south south east to
drench SEQ as we desperately need some more rain. However what I think, and
what the official prog say, are often very different.

I will monitor your hopes for TS's later this week.

Take care
Simon


----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 8:10 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?


> Hi David,
>
> I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
> - BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
> think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
> thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
> have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
> October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
> - and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
>
> I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
> time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
> though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
> thunderstorm activity.
>
> I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
> also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
> weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
> gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
> past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
> than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
> photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
>
> Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
> season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
> Vic's!)
>
> AC
>
> David Findlay wrote:
> >
> > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> > century?
> >
> > David
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "TWC" <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Abigail Cat 2 - Now Severe CAT 3 near the Mornington township 
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 22:52:53 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


The AWS and radar are back up again. Eye looks very impressive.
Mark Hardy
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
http://www.theweather.com.au


----- Original Message -----
From: "Karratha Weather" <karratha at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 8:49 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Abigail Cat 2 - Now Severe CAT 3 near the Mornington
township


| You were right Carl :)
| It's continuing to intensify as it approaches the Gulf Coast and has now
| been upgraded to Severe Cat 3 status and Mornington Island is now copping
| the worst of it.
| And we won't know what the winds are like due to the AWS AND RADAR down !
:(
| I wouldn't be surprised if it maintains TC intensity a fair way inland
after
| landfall with the amount of water still sitting over land in the Southern
| Gulf region from the past floods !
|
| Latest IR sat image is showing a VERY nice eye
| http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsd.jpg
| 0730utc Vis:
|
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/tc_thumbs/20010226.0731.gms-5.vis.x.ABIGAI
| L.12P.jpg
|
|
| TOP PRIORITY
| TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
| Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
| For 1850 EST on Monday the 26th of February 2001
|
| A Cyclone Warning continues for Coastal and Island communities in the Gulf
| of
| Carpentaria between Kowanyama and Port Roper in the Northern Territory.
|
| At 7 pm EST [6.30 PM CST] Severe Tropical Cyclone "Abigail", Category 3,
| with
| central pressure 970 hPa, was located near Latitude 16.7 S Longitude 139.1
| E,
| which is close to the Mornington Island township.
|
| The cyclone is moving in a southwesterly direction at about 15 kilometres
| per
| hour.
|
| The eye of the cyclone is passing over the western parts of Mornington
| Island
| but very destructive wind gusts to 170 kilometres per hour are expected to
| resume over Mornington Island during the evening and then extend to the
| southern
| Gulf coast overnight.
|
| Gales are expected between Kowanyama and the Queensland/Northern Territory
| border this evening and throughout the night and may extend westward
around
| the
| Gulf of Carpentaria to Port Roper Tuesday morning.
|
| Heavy rain may cause flooding along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria
coast.
|
| The storm surge in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria is producing tides up
to
| 2
| metres above predicted levels.
|
| Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Abigail, Category 3, for 7 PM EST [6.30
| PM
| CST]
| Central Pressure   : 970 Hectopascals
| Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
|                      latitude 16.7 degrees south
|                      longitude 139.1 degrees east
|                      near the Mornington Island township, and 270
kilometres
|                      east-southeast of Port McArthur
| Recent Movement    : southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
| Destructive winds  : out to 60 kilometres from the centre
| Maximum wind gusts : 170 kilometres per hour near the centre.
|
| People in the path of the cyclone should remain in shelter until
conditions
| have
| improved and listen to the next advice at 8 PM EST [7.30 PM CST].
|
| Regards
| JJ
|
| Karratha W.A
| www.karrathaweather.org
|
|
| ----- Original Message -----
| From: "Carl Smith" <carls at ace-net.com.au>
| To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>;
| <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
| Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 2:04 PM
| Subject: aus-wx: TC Abigail Cat 2
|
|
| > Hi All.
| >
| > TC Abigail became Cat 2 some hours back, and looks like it is bearing
down
| > on Mornington Is. As noted by others, it looks good on the radar now,
and
| > the winds are increasing.
| >
| > It may be upgraded to Cat 3 later today if it keeps developing.
| >
| > I have updated the satpic loop at
| > http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SatpicLoop.htm to 25 2332 UTC = 26 0932
| > EST.
| >
| > BoM TCA#19 is pasted below.
| >
| > Regards,
| > Carl.
| >
| >
| > >IDW50Q01
| > >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
| > >Queensland Region
| > >Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
| > >
| > >Media: For immediate broadcast. Only transmitters serving the
| southeastern
| > >Gulf
| > >of Carpentaria are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning
| Signal.
| > >Other transmitters should NOT use the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal.
| > >
| > >
| > >TOP PRIORITY
| > >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
| > >Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
| > >For 1555 EST on Monday the 26th of February 2001
| > >
| > >A Cyclone Warning continues for Coastal and Island communities in the
| Gulf of
| > >Carpentaria between Kowanyama and Alyangula in the Northern Territory.
| > >
| > >At 4 pm EST [3.30 PM CST], Tropical Cyclone "Abigail", Category 2, with
| > >central
| > >pressure 975 hPa, was located near Latitude 16.3 S Longitude 139.5 E,
| which is
| > >about 50 kilometres northeast of the Mornington Island township.
| > >
| > >The cyclone is moving in a southwesterly direction at about 7
kilometres
| per
| > >hour and is expected to deepen further during the afternoon and evening
| while
| > >maintaining the slow southwest movement.
| > >
| > >Gales are expected between Kowanyama and the Queensland/Northern
| Territory
| > >border this afternoon and evening.
| > >
| > >In particular destructive wind gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are
| expected
| > >over Mornington Island during the remainder of the afternoon and
evening
| > >and may
| > >extend to the southern Gulf coast this evening.
| > >
| > >Gales may extend westward around the Gulf of Carpentaria to Alyangula
| Tuesday
| > >morning.
| > >
| > >Heavy rain may cause flooding along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria
| coast.
| > >
| > >As the cyclone approaches the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast a
storm
| surge
| > >is expected.  This will result in tides being up to 2 metres above
| predicted
| > >levels.
| > >
| > >Details of Tropical Cyclone Abigail, Category 2, for 4 PM EST [3.30 PM
| CST]
| > >Central Pressure   : 975 Hectopascals
| > >Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
| > >                     latitude 16.3 degrees south
| > >                     longitude 139.5 degrees east
| > >                     about 50 kilometres northeast of Mornington Island
| > >                     township, and
| > >                     310 kilometres east of Port McArthur
| > >Recent Movement    : southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
| > >Maximum wind gusts : 160 kilometres per hour near the centre.
| > >
| > >People between Kowanyama and Alyangula should continue preparations and
| listen
| > >to the next advice at 5 PM EST [4.30 PM CST].
| >
| >
| >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
| >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
| >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
| >  message.
| >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
| >
|
|  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
|  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
|  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
|  message.
|  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
|

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
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Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 23:02:31 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Sorry more updates -  apologies
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I must admit I am pretty clumsy about updating my pages and forgot to 
include the video stills I had planned to put on.

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2000/docs/0012-01.htm

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2000/docs/0011-05.htm

I apologise for the inconvenience. It was meant to be there from the 
beginning for those who don't like downloading the larger files.

One of the other things people and myself included didn't pick up in the 
5th November chase report was that 3rd, 4th and 5th November  were all 
Fridays. Thanks for that Geoff!!!

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Mark Hardy \(home\)" <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        "Weather Junkies" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Mornington Is obs
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 22:59:33 +1100
Organization: The Weather Company
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2920.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Here are all the obs that Mornington Is sent 
through this evening. The station vanished just before the eye crossed over 
between 4pm and 6pm.&nbsp;Came online to report an impressive pressure of 
977hPa. Winds are now dropping below gale force.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>
<TABLE border=1>
  <TBODY>
  <TR>
    <TD>dtLocalDateTime</TD>
    <TD>nWindSpeedKts</TD>
    <TD>iWindDir</TD>
    <TD>sWindDirCmps</TD>
    <TD>nQNH</TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD>2001-02-26 21:26</TD>
    <TD>30.0</TD>
    <TD>40</TD>
    <TD>NE</TD>
    <TD>988.1</TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD>2001-02-26 20:28</TD>
    <TD>31.0</TD>
    <TD>30</TD>
    <TD>NNE</TD>
    <TD>983.8</TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD>2001-02-26 20:16</TD>
    <TD>38.0</TD>
    <TD>40</TD>
    <TD>NE</TD>
    <TD>981.5</TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD>2001-02-26 19:46</TD>
    <TD>25.0</TD>
    <TD>40</TD>
    <TD>NE</TD>
    <TD>977.3</TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD>2001-02-26 15:50</TD>
    <TD>32.0</TD>
    <TD>160</TD>
    <TD>SSE</TD>
    <TD>981.8</TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD>2001-02-26 15:30</TD>
    <TD>30.0</TD>
    <TD>150</TD>
    <TD>SSE</TD>
    <TD>984.1</TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD>2001-02-26 15:10</TD>
    <TD>32.0</TD>
    <TD>160</TD>
    <TD>SSE</TD>
    <TD>985.0</TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD>2001-02-26 14:00</TD>
    <TD>29.0</TD>
    <TD>160</TD>
    <TD>SSE</TD>
    <TD>987.5</TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD>2001-02-26 13:30</TD>
    <TD>27.0</TD>
    <TD>160</TD>
    <TD>SSE</TD>
    <TD>988.7</TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD>2001-02-26 13:00</TD>
    <TD>26.0</TD>
    <TD>160</TD>
    <TD>SSE</TD>
    <TD>990.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><BR>Mark Hardy<BR>The Weather Company Pty. 
Ltd.<BR><A 
href="http://www.theweather.com.au">http://www.theweather.com.au</A><BR></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Originating-IP: [202.76.128.22]
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence0312 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Stunning imagery of Abigail
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 06:08:26 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Feb 2001 19:08:26.0085 (UTC) FILETIME=[7EF9E950:01C0A027]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Evening all,

I know this is a horribly long URL but if you can manage to either click on 
it or copy it and paste it into your browser, you get to have a look at the 
images of TC Abigail since the 20th February - stunning visible images!!!!


http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/tc-bin/tc_home?YEAR=2001&MO=Feb&BASIN=SHEM&STORM_NAME=12P.ABIGAIL&PROD=ir1km_bw&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Latest&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=active&CURRENT=20010226.0731.gms-5.vis.x.ABIGAIL.12P.jpg&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc01/SHEM/12P.ABIGAIL/ssmi/ir1km_bw&MOSAIC_SCALE=20%&STYLE=frames&ACTIVES=01-SHEM-12P.ABIGAIL,01-SHEM-91P.INVEST,01-SHEM-92S.INVEST



If you get lost, start here
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/tc-bin/tc_home
and click on 12P.ABIGAIL in the left hand frame.

You can also choose 1km images - visible, IR, tracks in the top right hand 
corner....some stunning imagery!!!!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [202.76.128.22]
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence0312 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Next tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 08:11:40 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Feb 2001 21:11:40.0927 (UTC) FILETIME=[B6A540F0:01C0A038]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Morning all,

Next.................

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170NM NORTHWEST OF ESPIRITU 
SANTO ISLAND IN THE CORAL SEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 261130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 13P HAS PERSISTENT AND DEEP
CONVECTION FORMING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. UW-
CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS INDICATE THE REGION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC
13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 12
FEET.

Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 08:14:32 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

It's annoying though. Unless my memory is not correct, we used to get storms
nearly every day in summer.

David

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon Clarke
Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 7:16 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?


Anthony et al

I agree, storm numbers down, but quality up. Having said this, I know many
in SEQ may have missed out completely.

But hey, what an unusual season generally and much much better than last
year. Only now does it seem as though a more traditional pattern is
developing.

I would like to think that TC Abigail may move south and south south east to
drench SEQ as we desperately need some more rain. However what I think, and
what the official prog say, are often very different.

I will monitor your hopes for TS's later this week.

Take care
Simon


----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 8:10 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?


> Hi David,
>
> I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
> - BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
> think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
> thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
> have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
> October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
> - and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
>
> I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
> time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
> though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
> thunderstorm activity.
>
> I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
> also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
> weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
> gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
> past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
> than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
> photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
>
> Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
> season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
> Vic's!)
>
> AC
>
> David Findlay wrote:
> >
> > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> > century?
> >
> > David
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 09:06:52 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Next tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Jane,

Fiji (I think?) named this - TC Paula.  They have it tracking SSW
(WOOHOO!)  It was most probably a TC yesterday - but has improved a fair
bit o'night.  GMSD still shows fresh convection about the centre.  This
TC has the potential to become quite intense.

Fiji Ocean Wind Warning:

IDW01Q10
40:2:2:24:16S154E999:11:00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Brisbane Office 


STORM WARNING 020 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 26/1922UTC 2001.
TROPICAL cyclone paula 09F [990 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 164.6E AT
261800
UTC. POSITION POOR.  MOVING SSW AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.
CLOCKWISE
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS INCREASING TO
40/50 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTRE.
FORECAST POSITION 14.3S 164.3E AT 270600UTC.
AND 15.5S 164.3E AT 271800UTC.
 ALL SHIPS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS
EVERYTHREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER
VESSELSFAX PLUS 679 720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.THIS
WARNING
CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 019.

RE-ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE.

Jane ONeill wrote:
> 
> Morning all,
> 
> Next.................
> 
> TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170NM NORTHWEST OF ESPIRITU
> SANTO ISLAND IN THE CORAL SEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
> THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
> ON 261130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
> BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
> SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 13P HAS PERSISTENT AND DEEP
> CONVECTION FORMING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. UW-
> CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS INDICATE THE REGION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
> WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC
> 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
> INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
> FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE
> FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 12
> FEET.
> 
> Jane
> ---------------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> 
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> 
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> ---------------------------------------
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> 
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 09:09:03 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I would actually think that Sydney has had sort of a Brisbane-type
summer.  Consistently humid, hot and NE'lies.  They've had numerous
storms develop from a trough that sits over the region and thunderstorms
develop then move off the ranges over the area.  This is what "normally"
happens in Brisbane - and this added extra fun to the storm season. 
Although many of these weren't severe - they would be fun with strong
gusty winds, torrential rain and several skid-marking flangs :-)

Ac

David Findlay wrote:
> 
> It's annoying though. Unless my memory is not correct, we used to get storms
> nearly every day in summer.
> 
> David
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon Clarke
> Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 7:16 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> 
> Anthony et al
> 
> I agree, storm numbers down, but quality up. Having said this, I know many
> in SEQ may have missed out completely.
> 
> But hey, what an unusual season generally and much much better than last
> year. Only now does it seem as though a more traditional pattern is
> developing.
> 
> I would like to think that TC Abigail may move south and south south east to
> drench SEQ as we desperately need some more rain. However what I think, and
> what the official prog say, are often very different.
> 
> I will monitor your hopes for TS's later this week.
> 
> Take care
> Simon
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 8:10 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> 
> > Hi David,
> >
> > I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
> > - BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
> > think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
> > thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
> > have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
> > October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
> > - and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
> >
> > I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
> > time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
> > though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
> > thunderstorm activity.
> >
> > I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
> > also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
> > weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
> > gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
> > past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
> > than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
> > photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
> >
> > Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
> > season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
> > Vic's!)
> >
> > AC
> >
> > David Findlay wrote:
> > >
> > > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> > > century?
> > >
> > > David
> > >
> > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 09:11:20 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Sorry for the extra email - I meant to type this on the first!

Widepsread DP's 20-22 in SE QLD this morning, currently 30/22 at my
place as of 9am.  Last night I was encouraged by the feel in the air,
and also that the DP's did not decrease after the main seabreeze moved
through which is what they have been doing lately.  Even Oakey was a DP
of 20.  Definately worth to keep another eye on the ranges today, in
particular Northern Tablelands and Granite Belt.

AC

David Findlay wrote:
> 
> It's annoying though. Unless my memory is not correct, we used to get storms
> nearly every day in summer.
> 
> David
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon Clarke
> Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 7:16 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> 
> Anthony et al
> 
> I agree, storm numbers down, but quality up. Having said this, I know many
> in SEQ may have missed out completely.
> 
> But hey, what an unusual season generally and much much better than last
> year. Only now does it seem as though a more traditional pattern is
> developing.
> 
> I would like to think that TC Abigail may move south and south south east to
> drench SEQ as we desperately need some more rain. However what I think, and
> what the official prog say, are often very different.
> 
> I will monitor your hopes for TS's later this week.
> 
> Take care
> Simon
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 8:10 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> 
> > Hi David,
> >
> > I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
> > - BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
> > think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
> > thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
> > have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
> > October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
> > - and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
> >
> > I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
> > time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
> > though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
> > thunderstorm activity.
> >
> > I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
> > also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
> > weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
> > gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
> > past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
> > than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
> > photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
> >
> > Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
> > season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
> > Vic's!)
> >
> > AC
> >
> > David Findlay wrote:
> > >
> > > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> > > century?
> > >
> > > David
> > >
> > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [210.8.232.5]
From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NSW Sthn Tablelands to go OFF BIG time today
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 23:29:05 
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Feb 2001 23:29:05.0946 (UTC) FILETIME=[E90F4FA0:01C0A04B]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

The "looking out the window" prognosis model tells me that the Southern 
Tablelands are going to fire up BIG TIME today.

The sky has a nice scattering of castellanus and accas. But there is also 
lots of blue sky and strong sun.

Best of all an active group of congestus are bubling away to the west and 
reaching pretty impressive heights for the early-mid morning (getting up to 
around 7 or 8km).

Moisture could be better but the Canberra DP is now 14.1 and rising 
(anything over about 12 is pretty good for the southern tablelands). Lots of 
DPs on the coast are into the 20s so a little bit of easterly would be nice 
to see in the low level winds.

Nevertheless, I am looking forward to the onset of convection proper over 
the next hour or so. The first warnings should be out by 1pm - once the 
soundings confirm the "out the window" analysis.

Patrick


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.0.101.2]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Sounding!!! 
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 10:57:12 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Feb 2001 23:57:12.0235 (UTC) FILETIME=[D62A97B0:01C0A04F]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Further to Patrick's email and a little further north, this morning's Sydney 
sounding is LOOKING more like a May Oklahoma City sounding; well in terms of 
the nice 'fat' area of CAPE that is. Lifted Index to -9.3 (assuming reach a 
nice surface combo of 35 and 21). The flip side; I suppose the quite high 
suface temps will erode the cap quite quickly and, despite all the moisture 
at the suface, it dries out markedly above 900 and up to 700hPa. Still 
looking forward to seeing some BIG storms around the place.   Regards, David


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Next tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 11:01:54 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Anthony and all..
The area south of the Solomons looks like generating what appears to be a
serious TC. Paula looks very impressive and I wouldn't be surprised to see
this system push cat 4 or 5.I have been watching this area for a couple of
weeks, the region has been very convective with persistent activity, this
will be the second  spawning of a TC from this region,TC Paula looks to be
moving towards New Caledonia with a slight SW bias,its interesting to note
that most of the upper divergence favours the eastern side with cirrus
outflow streaks extending to the equator,TC paulas couson Abigail still
looks good over land with an enclosed centre.regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 10:06 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Next tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea


> Hi Jane,
>
> Fiji (I think?) named this - TC Paula.  They have it tracking SSW
> (WOOHOO!)  It was most probably a TC yesterday - but has improved a fair
> bit o'night.  GMSD still shows fresh convection about the centre.  This
> TC has the potential to become quite intense.
>
> Fiji Ocean Wind Warning:
>
> IDW01Q10
> 40:2:2:24:16S154E999:11:00
> BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> Queensland Region
> Brisbane Office
>
>
> STORM WARNING 020 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 26/1922UTC 2001.
> TROPICAL cyclone paula 09F [990 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 164.6E AT
> 261800
> UTC. POSITION POOR.  MOVING SSW AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.
> CLOCKWISE
> WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS INCREASING TO
> 40/50 KNOTS
> NEAR THE CENTRE.
> FORECAST POSITION 14.3S 164.3E AT 270600UTC.
> AND 15.5S 164.3E AT 271800UTC.
>  ALL SHIPS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
> REPORTS
> EVERYTHREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
> OTHER
> VESSELSFAX PLUS 679 720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.THIS
> WARNING
> CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 019.
>
> RE-ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE.
>
> Jane ONeill wrote:
> >
> > Morning all,
> >
> > Next.................
> >
> > TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170NM NORTHWEST OF
ESPIRITU
> > SANTO ISLAND IN THE CORAL SEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER
> > THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
> > ON 261130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
> > BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
> > SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 13P HAS PERSISTENT AND DEEP
> > CONVECTION FORMING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. UW-
> > CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS INDICATE THE REGION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
> > WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC
> > 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
> > INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
> > FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE
> > FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 12
> > FEET.
> >
> > Jane
> > ---------------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > ASWA - Victoria
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > ---------------------------------------
> >
_________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 11:12:57 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Sounding!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Dave

I was just looking at the sounding as well, it screams thunderstorms !
Even if the temperature does not reach 35 like it says on the sounding
trace it at 32-33 or so  and you get a very similar result !
A few storms should pop up in the next couple of hours on the ranges!

For interests sake, AVN had LI of -4 today, and -8 tomorrow.

Matt

David Croan wrote:

> Further to Patrick's email and a little further north, this morning's Sydney
> sounding is LOOKING more like a May Oklahoma City sounding; well in terms of
> the nice 'fat' area of CAPE that is. Lifted Index to -9.3 (assuming reach a
> nice surface combo of 35 and 21). The flip side; I suppose the quite high
> suface temps will erode the cap quite quickly and, despite all the moisture
> at the suface, it dries out markedly above 900 and up to 700hPa. Still
> looking forward to seeing some BIG storms around the place.   Regards, David
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 10:35:24 +1000
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What's the LI today(Tuesday)? Also how do I calculate DP and LI myself
instead of having to rely on everyone else and looking like a fool. BTW I
ran a simulation of the weather for the next 3 days, and WxSim reported
LI -4 today, rounding off to +1 by Thursday. Is this anything like what it
should be?

David

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Anthony
Cornelius
Sent: Tuesday, 27 February 2001 9:11 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?


Sorry for the extra email - I meant to type this on the first!

Widepsread DP's 20-22 in SE QLD this morning, currently 30/22 at my
place as of 9am.  Last night I was encouraged by the feel in the air,
and also that the DP's did not decrease after the main seabreeze moved
through which is what they have been doing lately.  Even Oakey was a DP
of 20.  Definately worth to keep another eye on the ranges today, in
particular Northern Tablelands and Granite Belt.

AC

David Findlay wrote:
>
> It's annoying though. Unless my memory is not correct, we used to get
storms
> nearly every day in summer.
>
> David
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon Clarke
> Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 7:16 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
>
> Anthony et al
>
> I agree, storm numbers down, but quality up. Having said this, I know many
> in SEQ may have missed out completely.
>
> But hey, what an unusual season generally and much much better than last
> year. Only now does it seem as though a more traditional pattern is
> developing.
>
> I would like to think that TC Abigail may move south and south south east
to
> drench SEQ as we desperately need some more rain. However what I think,
and
> what the official prog say, are often very different.
>
> I will monitor your hopes for TS's later this week.
>
> Take care
> Simon
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 8:10 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
>
> > Hi David,
> >
> > I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
> > - BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
> > think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
> > thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
> > have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
> > October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
> > - and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
> >
> > I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
> > time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
> > though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
> > thunderstorm activity.
> >
> > I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
> > also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
> > weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
> > gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
> > past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
> > than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
> > photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
> >
> > Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
> > season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
> > Vic's!)
> >
> > AC
> >
> > David Findlay wrote:
> > >
> > > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> > > century?
> > >
> > > David
> > >
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 06:11:52 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer <mjd at iinet.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win95; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Off topic
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,

I will be in Melbourne for a week so if there are any emails i will
respond to them when i get back ok, so till then cya latter on ppl's and
time to have fun  at  the F1 GP in Melbourne <g>
--
Mark Dwyer

Storm Chaser, Photographer & Webmaster of:
Downunder Severe Weather
http://dsw.au.com

and a Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association Inc.
http://www.severeweather.asn.au


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 14:02:06 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Oberon Storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Storm near Oberon at the moment, red on radar, seems to be tracking EAST
!!!

WOOHOOO hopefully this is the start of a good day ! Shame i gotta work
tonight :(

Matt Smith

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: mbath at ozemail.com.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
CC: 
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Tue, Feb 27 2001 10:39:14 GMT+1100
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael


At 19:10 26/02/2001 +1000, you wrote:
Hi David,

I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
- BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
- and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!

I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
thunderstorm activity.

I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).

Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
Vic's!)

AC

David Findlay wrote:
> 
> Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> century?
> 
> David

This message was sent through MyMail http://www.mymail.com.au


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 13:28:13 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Paula NE Coral Sea intensifying
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

Looks like TC Paula 09F 13P named yesterday by the FMS TCWC Nadi is
becoming quite a notable cyclone as this FMS Special Advisory for Vanuatu
shows.

Links to all warnings on my website at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm.

Regards,
Carl.

>Special Advisory Number SIX for Vanuatu on TC PAULA issued from RSMC
>NADI
>Feb 27/0215 UTC 2001.
>
>Tropical Cyclone Paula 09F [985 hPa] located near 13.5S 164.2E at
>270000 UTC or about 210 miles northwest of Santo. Position Poor based
>on GMS5 HIGH RES VIS imagery. Cyclone moving south-southwest about 06
>knots but expected to curve southwards later. Maximum 10-minute
>average winds near the centre estimated at about 50 knots increasing
>to 60 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots
>within 50 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of
>the centre.
>
>System continues to develop with continous deep convection spiralling
>in the LLCC giving a DT of 3.5. Outflow remains good in all quadrants
>as evident from satpix. The cyclone remains underneath the 250hpa
>outflow centre with good diffluence aloft. It is expected to remain
>in a weak shear environment for the next 24 hours, favouring further
>development. System continues to be steered by deep layer northerlies
>which turns northwest south of 17S. Sea surface temperature in the
>area about 30 degrees. Global models maintain a general southward
>movement for the next 24 to 36 hours hours and then curve the system
>southeast with further intensification.
>
>FORECASTS: AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 14.6S 163.9E MOV SOUTH AT 06
>KNOTS WITH 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE
>NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS.
>
>AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 15.8S 163.8E MOV SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 06
>KNOTS WITH 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.
>
>AT 36 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 17.0S 164.0E MOV SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS
>WITH 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.
>
>AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 18.6S 165.0E MOV EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10
>KNOTS WITH 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.
>
>On its current forecast track, TC Paula is expected to pass about 210
>miles west of Santo around 280000 UTC and pass just south of Aneityum
>after 48 hours.
>
>For Torres and Banks Islands winds 35 to 40 knots with gusts to 50
>knots.
>Over Espirito Santo, Aoba and Maewo winds increasing to 35 to 40
>knots with gust to 50 knots tonight gradually spreading over the rest
>of the islands by 281200 UTC.
>
>Expect periods of heavy rain, flooding including sea flooding of low
>lying coastal areas around Torres Islands, Banks Islands, Espiritu
>Santo, Aoba, Maewo, Pentecost, Malekula, Ambrym and Epi gradually
>spreading to the rest of the country overnight.
>
>The next Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Paula 09F
>will be issued at 270830 UTC.
>PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Stunning imagery of Abigail
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 13:33:45 +1000
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I liked...

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCabigail057_GM.jpg

Regards.
John.
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
Sent: Tuesday, 27 February 2001 5:08
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Stunning imagery of Abigail


Evening all,

I know this is a horribly long URL but if you can manage to either click on
it or copy it and paste it into your browser, you get to have a look at the
images of TC Abigail since the 20th February - stunning visible images!!!!


http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/tc-bin/tc_home?YEAR=2001&MO=Feb&BASIN=SHEM
&STORM_NAME=12P.ABIGAIL&PROD=ir1km_bw&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Latest&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=
tc&DISPLAY=active&CURRENT=20010226.0731.gms-5.vis.x.ABIGAIL.12P.jpg&DIR=/dat
a/www/tropical_cyclones/tc01/SHEM/12P.ABIGAIL/ssmi/ir1km_bw&MOSAIC_SCALE=20%
&STYLE=frames&ACTIVES=01-SHEM-12P.ABIGAIL,01-SHEM-91P.INVEST,01-SHEM-92S.INV
EST



If you get lost, start here
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/tc-bin/tc_home
and click on 12P.ABIGAIL in the left hand frame.

You can also choose 1km images - visible, IR, tracks in the top right hand
corner....some stunning imagery!!!!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Godsman, Andrew AG" <Godsman.Andrew.AG at bhp.com>
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Off topic
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 14:40:42 +1100
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2650.21)
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Mark,

Make that two of us hoping for some storms while down in Melbourne for the GP. Unfortunately I leave tonight so will probably leave what is increasingly sounding like one of the best days for potential in Wollongong for quite some time. Michael, better make sure your batteries are charged and that there's film in the camera. The jinx of the gong is leaving.

Andrew Godsman

-----Original Message-----
From: Mark Dwyer [mailto:mjd at iinet.net.au]
Sent: Tuesday, 27 February 2001 9:12
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Off topic



Hi all,

I will be in Melbourne for a week so if there are any emails i will
respond to them when i get back ok, so till then cya latter on ppl's and
time to have fun  at  the F1 GP in Melbourne <g>
--
Mark Dwyer

Storm Chaser, Photographer & Webmaster of:
Downunder Severe Weather
http://dsw.au.com

and a Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association Inc.
http://www.severeweather.asn.au


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [210.8.232.5]
From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: STA and prospects for Sthn Tablelands
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 04:25:51 
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2001 04:25:51.0568 (UTC) FILETIME=[5E099D00:01C0A075]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
The following STA has been issued for the Central Tablelands only - so 
far...

Oh well I guess they'll have to extend it to the Southern Tablelands later 
on.. It's also hard not to see the current Blue Mtns cell(s) not shortly 
extending into at least the western part of the metropolitan area (with 
those high DPs).

Storms currently visible to the west of Canberra - as they move east into 
increasingly moist environments they should become well nourished. They will 
also meet - head on - the sea breeze line/SE change (currently visible just 
to the east of Canberra) moving west. The interaction of the two should be a 
potent mix...

A good tinge of red developing just to the north of Tumut.

Patrick


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1415 on Tuesday the 27th of February 2001

This advice affects people in the following weather districts:

Central Tablelands


Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of
these are expected to be severe bringing  damaging winds, very heavy
rainfall and a chance of large hail.




_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 14:29:11 +1000
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Hi all,

Well with 278mm (cf mean. 120mm) for Feb (Mt. Crosby) we really shouldn't be
whinging about lack of rain, but I agree with you Simon, we desparately need
more.  The problem is not the quantity but the regularity.  278mm was all in
4 days and nothing worth mentioning since, and boy is it hot & dry now with
successive cloud free days around 33C.  This summer has been very hit and
miss with the rain.

And certainly while the storms that have been around have been spectacular
(particularly the all night event Jan 17/18), the number of storms actually
at Mt. Crosby this season (i.e., a CG within 5kms) you could count quite
literally on one hand, which is particularly pitiful.  The best was this
little sucker back on Nov 4 with the rotating base, which produced 2.5cm
hail.
Base: http://www.pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100d.jpg
Updraft: http://www.pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100c.jpg

But as always, the border ranges are another story, time again you see
things like this in the distance:
http://www.pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/061100c.jpg

Regards,
John W.
>snip

Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?

Anthony et al

I agree, storm numbers down, but quality up. Having said this, I know many
in SEQ may have missed out completely.

But hey, what an unusual season generally and much much better than last
year. Only now does it seem as though a more traditional pattern is
developing.

I would like to think that TC Abigail may move south and south south east to
drench SEQ as we desperately need some more rain. However what I think, and
what the official prog say, are often very different.

I will monitor your hopes for TS's later this week.

Take care
Simon


----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 8:10 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?


> Hi David,
>
> I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
> - BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
> think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
> thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
> have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
> October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
> - and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
>
> I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
> time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
> though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
> thunderstorm activity.
>
> I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
> also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
> weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
> gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
> past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
> than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
> photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
>
> Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
> season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
> Vic's!)
>
> AC
>
> David Findlay wrote:
> >
> > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> > century?
> >
> > David
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Oberon Storm
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 16:25:54 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Here at Cranebrook we have constant thunder and a very dark horizon. It
changed in a matter on minutes from a particularly hazy situation  to this
darkness. The temp/dp was an incredible 34/26 at 4pm, but has eased off to
32/24.
STA out for Canberra too!

dann

----- Original Message -----
From: "Matt Smith" <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 2:02 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Oberon Storm


> Storm near Oberon at the moment, red on radar, seems to be tracking EAST
> !!!
>
> WOOHOOO hopefully this is the start of a good day ! Shame i gotta work
> tonight :(
>
> Matt Smith
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane CBD vs AP Temps
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 17:56:01 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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> 
> Hi Blair and all,
> 
> I know this discussion came up last year - but it was more a
> spectaculation on the potential differences in the new Brisbane CBD site
> and the Brisbane AP site.  I still think that the Brisbane CBD has
> constantly had warmer max temps, especially in summer since it has been
> implemented.  Blair - do you have any information on this now that 7 or
> so months have gone by?

Mean temperature differences (City - AP):

Max	+0.9
Min	+0.8

The maximum difference seems to peak in the warmer half of the year
and the minimum difference in the cooler months (1.5 in June, 1.8 in
July), in as much as we can tell anything from a 10-month overlap.
These are consistent with what one would expect. Note that there was
also a site change at Brisbane AP in February 2000 (after a 3-year
overlap), so the total change from the old Brisbane AP to the current
city looks like about +0.6 for max, +1.1 for min. 

I haven't analysed in detail how the change is reflected through
the full frequency distribution, but my impression has been that
the difference is greatest on cold nights in winter and hot days in
summer (which would not be surprising).

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Off topic
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 18:32:38 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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I'll even take the video to work tomorrow as I think things will go off
earlier than my finish time of 5pm.

Michael



----- Original Message -----
From: "Godsman, Andrew AG" <Godsman.Andrew.AG at bhp.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, 27 February 2001 14:40
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Off topic


> Mark,
>
> Make that two of us hoping for some storms while down in Melbourne for the
GP. Unfortunately I leave tonight so will probably leave what is
increasingly sounding like one of the best days for potential in Wollongong
for quite some time. Michael, better make sure your batteries are charged
and that there's film in the camera. The jinx of the gong is leaving.
>
> Andrew Godsman
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Mark Dwyer [mailto:mjd at iinet.net.au]
> Sent: Tuesday, 27 February 2001 9:12
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Off topic
>
>
>
> Hi all,
>
> I will be in Melbourne for a week so if there are any emails i will
> respond to them when i get back ok, so till then cya latter on ppl's and
> time to have fun  at  the F1 GP in Melbourne <g>
> --
> Mark Dwyer
>
> Storm Chaser, Photographer & Webmaster of:
> Downunder Severe Weather
> http://dsw.au.com
>
> and a Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association Inc.
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 18:24:43 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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I have to disagree about Sydney's season. For a Sydney sider and more
particularly an Illawarra-sider, if you did not chase as in putting on some
kilometres you would have been disappointed with Sydney's season.

The season has been marked by numerous storms over the Blue Mountains that
have drifted NE, or even propagated NW in many instances. But actual
convection over the coast has been well below average, they has been a
absence of squall line storms too.
Michael



----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, 27 February 2001 10:09
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?


> I would actually think that Sydney has had sort of a Brisbane-type
> summer.  Consistently humid, hot and NE'lies.  They've had numerous
> storms develop from a trough that sits over the region and thunderstorms
> develop then move off the ranges over the area.  This is what "normally"
> happens in Brisbane - and this added extra fun to the storm season.
> Although many of these weren't severe - they would be fun with strong
> gusty winds, torrential rain and several skid-marking flangs :-)
>
> Ac
>
> David Findlay wrote:
> >
> > It's annoying though. Unless my memory is not correct, we used to get
storms
> > nearly every day in summer.
> >
> > David
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon Clarke
> > Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 7:16 PM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> >
> > Anthony et al
> >
> > I agree, storm numbers down, but quality up. Having said this, I know
many
> > in SEQ may have missed out completely.
> >
> > But hey, what an unusual season generally and much much better than last
> > year. Only now does it seem as though a more traditional pattern is
> > developing.
> >
> > I would like to think that TC Abigail may move south and south south
east to
> > drench SEQ as we desperately need some more rain. However what I think,
and
> > what the official prog say, are often very different.
> >
> > I will monitor your hopes for TS's later this week.
> >
> > Take care
> > Simon
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 8:10 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> >
> > > Hi David,
> > >
> > > I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this
season
> > > - BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me -
I
> > > think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number
of
> > > thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
> > > have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
> > > October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous
funnels/WC's
> > > - and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
> > >
> > > I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
> > > time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
> > > though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
> > > thunderstorm activity.
> > >
> > > I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days -
and
> > > also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms
and
> > > weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
> > > gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
> > > past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better
season
> > > than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
> > > photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
> > >
> > > Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
> > > season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to
the
> > > Vic's!)
> > >
> > > AC
> > >
> > > David Findlay wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> > > > century?
> > > >
> > > > David
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > > --
> > > Anthony Cornelius
> > > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > > (07) 3390 4812
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > >
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> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "andrew maben" <amaben at futuregroup.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 17:00:12 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Well David, if you get one in Brisbane, send it up north to the sunshine
coast.
NSW are not sharing.....
Andrew Maben


----- Original Message -----
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 3:54 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Storms this year?


> Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> century?
>
> David
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: RE: [ Aussie Wx List ] Severe storms in Wagga
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 17:30:44 +0930
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HI Mark & all.

Yes - there was quite a savage squall line that went through.

Im just about to go on a damage assessment to the Northern suburbs -
apparently some very large trees
were ripped to shreds this afternoon from storm.

Dont know about funnel though........

-----Original Message-----
From: Mark Hardy [mailto:mhardy at theweather.com.au]
Sent: Tuesday, 27 February 2001 5:21 PM
To: weatherzone list
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Severe storms in Wagga


We have had several reports of very severe storms in Wagga. Anybody with
more info?

Also a report of a funnel cloud in Darwin this afternoon. Anybody up north
manage to put themselves in the path of that one?

Mark
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
http://www.theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________


--
Visit WeatherZone, the site for weather freaks
http://www.weatherzone.com.au

--
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: RE: [ Aussie Wx List ] Severe storms in Wagga
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 19:18:15 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Prime TV (Albury) issued a severe storm warning on their local news at
5.30pm and again when it was ending at 6pm. Henty/Culcairn area of the
Riverina, and also stating that power was down in most of these areas. Can't
see anything from here though.
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>; "Aussie Weather Mail
List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 7:00 PM
Subject: aus-wx: RE: [ Aussie Wx List ] Severe storms in Wagga


> HI Mark & all.
>
> Yes - there was quite a savage squall line that went through.
>
> Im just about to go on a damage assessment to the Northern suburbs -
> apparently some very large trees
> were ripped to shreds this afternoon from storm.
>
> Dont know about funnel though........
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Mark Hardy [mailto:mhardy at theweather.com.au]
> Sent: Tuesday, 27 February 2001 5:21 PM
> To: weatherzone list
> Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Severe storms in Wagga
>
>
> We have had several reports of very severe storms in Wagga. Anybody with
> more info?
>
> Also a report of a funnel cloud in Darwin this afternoon. Anybody up north
> manage to put themselves in the path of that one?
>
> Mark
> _____________________________________________________
> Mark Hardy.
> The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
> Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
> Mobile 0414 642 739
> http://www.theweather.com.au
> _____________________________________________________
>
>
> --
> Visit WeatherZone, the site for weather freaks
> http://www.weatherzone.com.au
>
> --
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> aussie-weather-unsubscribe at theweather.com.au
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 18:33:07 +1100
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

John

You hit the nail on the head. Here in Cleveland 266mm for the year so far,
but 172mm of that fell here on 1/2/3 Feb and 41 mm in the 20 minute
spectacular TS at around midnight on 17/18 Jan (most of which ran straight
off my yard and did not sink in at all). Otherwise it has been dry. Coming
off last year's dismal rainfall (less than 450mm), I think many parts of SEQ
could do with a bit more 'pre-sip -it-ay-shun'.


Regards
Simon



----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 3:29 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storms this year?


> Hi all,
>
> Well with 278mm (cf mean. 120mm) for Feb (Mt. Crosby) we really shouldn't
be
> whinging about lack of rain, but I agree with you Simon, we desparately
need
> more.  The problem is not the quantity but the regularity.  278mm was all
in
> 4 days and nothing worth mentioning since, and boy is it hot & dry now
with
> successive cloud free days around 33C.  This summer has been very hit and
> miss with the rain.
>
> And certainly while the storms that have been around have been spectacular
> (particularly the all night event Jan 17/18), the number of storms
actually
> at Mt. Crosby this season (i.e., a CG within 5kms) you could count quite
> literally on one hand, which is particularly pitiful.  The best was this
> little sucker back on Nov 4 with the rotating base, which produced 2.5cm
> hail.
> Base: http://www.pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100d.jpg
> Updraft: http://www.pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100c.jpg
>
> But as always, the border ranges are another story, time again you see
> things like this in the distance:
> http://www.pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/061100c.jpg
>
> Regards,
> John W.
> >snip
>
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
>
> Anthony et al
>
> I agree, storm numbers down, but quality up. Having said this, I know many
> in SEQ may have missed out completely.
>
> But hey, what an unusual season generally and much much better than last
> year. Only now does it seem as though a more traditional pattern is
> developing.
>
> I would like to think that TC Abigail may move south and south south east
to
> drench SEQ as we desperately need some more rain. However what I think,
and
> what the official prog say, are often very different.
>
> I will monitor your hopes for TS's later this week.
>
> Take care
> Simon
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 8:10 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
>
>
> > Hi David,
> >
> > I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
> > - BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
> > think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
> > thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
> > have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
> > October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
> > - and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
> >
> > I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
> > time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
> > though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
> > thunderstorm activity.
> >
> > I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
> > also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
> > weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
> > gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
> > past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
> > than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
> > photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
> >
> > Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
> > season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
> > Vic's!)
> >
> > AC
> >
> > David Findlay wrote:
> > >
> > > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> > > century?
> > >
> > > David
> > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC's and upper sytems to south
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 18:55:05 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Looks as though TC Paula is going to be a bit of a 
trial to predict due to upper influences to the south. It looks tempting to say 
a SE movement due to this, but if she can escape this influence, a&nbsp;SW track 
may not be out of the question. Perhaps that's why the current safer bet of a 
southerly track is on the cards.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I think we will see significant intensification 
over the next 24 hours with slow movement. After that,</FONT>&nbsp;<FONT 
face=Arial size=2>a bit of a guess. However even if a SW path ensues, I think it 
will struggle to make it all the way across to QLD before a 
SE'rly&nbsp;recurvature.&nbsp;The overall impact on Qld's weather at this stage 
will be probably negligable.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 20:47:56 +1100
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Michael, Anthony and all....

There has been an absence of squall line storms for the past few years,
however, I do think that this year has been great even for the maligned
Illawarra. This year has seen a lot of activity slightly west of the
Illawarra, with the Bowral area spawning many thunderstorms this year. In
fact, this has been a topic of discussion for many of us Sydney-siders, who
feel that this year has seen the Southern Highlands area especially the
Bowral area being a hotspot of such. I have ended up in the Illawarra on
three chases this season, and I know that Matt Smith has been very familiar
with that territory too.

I think we tend to romanticise previous seasons sometimes because of a few
great events. This season has been full of good events and the notable great
events. Certainly being on the net and seeing what you are missing can add a
touch of bitterness about weather events. But if we remember what we have
had this season in a bigger perspective (Sydney/Illawarra/Southern
Highlands) rather than a "...there is storms all around me but none here"
attitude, there is no way this season could justifiably be labeled
disappointing. Maybe from your perspective in the sheltered Illawarra it may
not seem like it has been a good season but in the overall picture it
certainly has.

For Illawarrians and Sydney-siders a line of activity is coming through at
the moment. The odd flash can be seen from here at Cranebrook. This activity
is associated with a storm that looked pretty fierce on radar near Goulburn
about 90mins ago. Certainly the Goulburn AWS hasn't updated for 2 hours, so
some damage might have occurred there, or it has gone out for dinner to
experience some of the dazzling Goulburn nightlife.


dann
__________________________
Daniel Weatherhead
Blaxland, NSW
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
www.sydneystormchasers.com





> I have to disagree about Sydney's season. For a Sydney sider and more
> particularly an Illawarra-sider, if you did not chase as in putting on
some
> kilometres you would have been disappointed with Sydney's season.
>
> The season has been marked by numerous storms over the Blue Mountains that
> have drifted NE, or even propagated NW in many instances. But actual
> convection over the coast has been well below average, they has been a
> absence of squall line storms too.
> Michael
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, 27 February 2001 10:09
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
>
>
> > I would actually think that Sydney has had sort of a Brisbane-type
> > summer.  Consistently humid, hot and NE'lies.  They've had numerous
> > storms develop from a trough that sits over the region and thunderstorms
> > develop then move off the ranges over the area.  This is what "normally"
> > happens in Brisbane - and this added extra fun to the storm season.
> > Although many of these weren't severe - they would be fun with strong
> > gusty winds, torrential rain and several skid-marking flangs :-)
> >
> > Ac
> >
> > David Findlay wrote:
> > >
> > > It's annoying though. Unless my memory is not correct, we used to get
> storms
> > > nearly every day in summer.
> > >
> > > David
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon
Clarke
> > > Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 7:16 PM
> > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> > >
> > > Anthony et al
> > >
> > > I agree, storm numbers down, but quality up. Having said this, I know
> many
> > > in SEQ may have missed out completely.
> > >
> > > But hey, what an unusual season generally and much much better than
last
> > > year. Only now does it seem as though a more traditional pattern is
> > > developing.
> > >
> > > I would like to think that TC Abigail may move south and south south
> east to
> > > drench SEQ as we desperately need some more rain. However what I
think,
> and
> > > what the official prog say, are often very different.
> > >
> > > I will monitor your hopes for TS's later this week.
> > >
> > > Take care
> > > Simon
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 8:10 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> > >
> > > > Hi David,
> > > >
> > > > I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this
> season
> > > > - BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with
me -
> I
> > > > think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number
> of
> > > > thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the
thunderstorms
> > > > have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month
from
> > > > October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous
> funnels/WC's
> > > > - and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
> > > >
> > > > I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the
right
> > > > time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
> > > > though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
> > > > thunderstorm activity.
> > > >
> > > > I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days -
> and
> > > > also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms
> and
> > > > weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
> > > > gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
> > > > past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better
> season
> > > > than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
> > > > photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
> > > >
> > > > Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
> > > > season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to
> the
> > > > Vic's!)
> > > >
> > > > AC
> > > >
> > > > David Findlay wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade?
this
> > > > > century?
> > > > >
> > > > > David
> > > > >
> > > > >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
of
> > > your
> > > > >  message.
> > > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > Anthony Cornelius
> > > > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > > > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > > > (07) 3390 4812
> > > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > > >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 07:57:15 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
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Subject: aus-wx: High temps
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Anyone notice the high temps in NW NSW in recent days.
Tibooburra yesterday reached 46 - by my records, it was the first 46
degree temp in NSW in February since Ivanhoe reached 46 on 17 Feb 1981
and we have to go back to 7 Feb 1970 for Hay on 47 to beat it. also 45
at a few places - White Cliffs / wilcannaia and 44 I think in Bourke...
any Feb recxords here?.
Given that the best March has manged in the past 40 years is 43, it must
be the latest in the season for a +45 degree temp in NSW for a very long
time. Any one on how long? 
Blair, does your data confirm. I would be interested in any comment.

Cheers,
Don W
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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 11:48:23 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly 
in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, 
and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off 
illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, 
a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to 
top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd 
stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael



  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 11:48:23 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly 
in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, 
and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off 
illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, 
a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to 
top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd 
stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael



  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 11:48:23 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly 
in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, 
and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off 
illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, 
a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to 
top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd 
stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael



  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 11:48:23 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly 
in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, 
and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off 
illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, 
a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to 
top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd 
stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael



  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 11:48:23 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly 
in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, 
and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off 
illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, 
a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to 
top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd 
stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael



  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 11:45:30 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly 
in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, 
and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off 
illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, 
a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to 
top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd 
stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael


At 19:10 26/02/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi David,
>
>I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
>- BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
>think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
>thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
>have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
>October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
>- and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
>
>I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
>time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
>though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
>thunderstorm activity.
>
>I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
>also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
>weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
>gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
>past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
>than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
>photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
>
>Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
>season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
>Vic's!)
>
>AC
>
>David Findlay wrote:
> >
> > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> > century?
> >
> > David
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
>Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 10:27:53 +1100
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly 
in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, 
and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off 
illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, 
a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to 
top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd 
stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael


At 19:10 26/02/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi David,
>
>I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
>- BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
>think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
>thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
>have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
>October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
>- and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
>
>I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
>time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
>though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
>thunderstorm activity.
>
>I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
>also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
>weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
>gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
>past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
>than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
>photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
>
>Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
>season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
>Vic's!)
>
>AC
>
>David Findlay wrote:
> >
> > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> > century?
> >
> > David
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
>Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 11:48:23 +1100
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly 
in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, 
and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off 
illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, 
a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to 
top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd 
stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael



  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 11:48:23 +1100
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly 
in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, 
and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off 
illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, 
a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to 
top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd 
stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael



  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 21:11:37 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi Dann,

I think like I have said before it has been an average season in Sydney. 
You only need go back to 1995 and you will find even back then when all my 
chasing and Michael's chasing was done in Sydney that we had quite a few 
storms to our credit.

However, I bet if you went back well before that say 1992 and perhaps the 
1980's, you will find that the season was marked with some impressive activity.

But I agree with you on one thing, and Anthony as well, whether you choose 
to "mobile storm spot" or not is totally your choice, but that is the only 
way in the end to see the storms.

Jimmy Deguara

At 08:47 PM 27/02/01 +1100, you wrote:
>Michael, Anthony and all....
>
>There has been an absence of squall line storms for the past few years,
>however, I do think that this year has been great even for the maligned
>Illawarra. This year has seen a lot of activity slightly west of the
>Illawarra, with the Bowral area spawning many thunderstorms this year. In
>fact, this has been a topic of discussion for many of us Sydney-siders, who
>feel that this year has seen the Southern Highlands area especially the
>Bowral area being a hotspot of such. I have ended up in the Illawarra on
>three chases this season, and I know that Matt Smith has been very familiar
>with that territory too.
>
>I think we tend to romanticise previous seasons sometimes because of a few
>great events. This season has been full of good events and the notable great
>events. Certainly being on the net and seeing what you are missing can add a
>touch of bitterness about weather events. But if we remember what we have
>had this season in a bigger perspective (Sydney/Illawarra/Southern
>Highlands) rather than a "...there is storms all around me but none here"
>attitude, there is no way this season could justifiably be labeled
>disappointing. Maybe from your perspective in the sheltered Illawarra it may
>not seem like it has been a good season but in the overall picture it
>certainly has.
>
>For Illawarrians and Sydney-siders a line of activity is coming through at
>the moment. The odd flash can be seen from here at Cranebrook. This activity
>is associated with a storm that looked pretty fierce on radar near Goulburn
>about 90mins ago. Certainly the Goulburn AWS hasn't updated for 2 hours, so
>some damage might have occurred there, or it has gone out for dinner to
>experience some of the dazzling Goulburn nightlife.
>
>
>dann
>__________________________
>Daniel Weatherhead
>Blaxland, NSW
>weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
>SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
>www.sydneystormchasers.com
>
>
>
>
>
> > I have to disagree about Sydney's season. For a Sydney sider and more
> > particularly an Illawarra-sider, if you did not chase as in putting on
>some
> > kilometres you would have been disappointed with Sydney's season.
> >
> > The season has been marked by numerous storms over the Blue Mountains that
> > have drifted NE, or even propagated NW in many instances. But actual
> > convection over the coast has been well below average, they has been a
> > absence of squall line storms too.
> > Michael
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, 27 February 2001 10:09
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> >
> >
> > > I would actually think that Sydney has had sort of a Brisbane-type
> > > summer.  Consistently humid, hot and NE'lies.  They've had numerous
> > > storms develop from a trough that sits over the region and thunderstorms
> > > develop then move off the ranges over the area.  This is what "normally"
> > > happens in Brisbane - and this added extra fun to the storm season.
> > > Although many of these weren't severe - they would be fun with strong
> > > gusty winds, torrential rain and several skid-marking flangs :-)
> > >
> > > Ac
> > >
> > > David Findlay wrote:
> > > >
> > > > It's annoying though. Unless my memory is not correct, we used to get
> > storms
> > > > nearly every day in summer.
> > > >
> > > > David
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon
>Clarke
> > > > Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 7:16 PM
> > > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> > > >
> > > > Anthony et al
> > > >
> > > > I agree, storm numbers down, but quality up. Having said this, I know
> > many
> > > > in SEQ may have missed out completely.
> > > >
> > > > But hey, what an unusual season generally and much much better than
>last
> > > > year. Only now does it seem as though a more traditional pattern is
> > > > developing.
> > > >
> > > > I would like to think that TC Abigail may move south and south south
> > east to
> > > > drench SEQ as we desperately need some more rain. However what I
>think,
> > and
> > > > what the official prog say, are often very different.
> > > >
> > > > I will monitor your hopes for TS's later this week.
> > > >
> > > > Take care
> > > > Simon
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 8:10 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> > > >
> > > > > Hi David,
> > > > >
> > > > > I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this
> > season
> > > > > - BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with
>me -
> > I
> > > > > think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number
> > of
> > > > > thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the
>thunderstorms
> > > > > have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month
>from
> > > > > October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous
> > funnels/WC's
> > > > > - and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
> > > > >
> > > > > I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the
>right
> > > > > time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
> > > > > though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
> > > > > thunderstorm activity.
> > > > >
> > > > > I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days -
> > and
> > > > > also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms
> > and
> > > > > weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
> > > > > gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
> > > > > past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better
> > season
> > > > > than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
> > > > > photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
> > > > >
> > > > > Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
> > > > > season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to
> > the
> > > > > Vic's!)
> > > > >
> > > > > AC
> > > > >
> > > > > David Findlay wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade?
>this
> > > > > > century?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > David
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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>of
> > > > your
> > > > > >  message.
> > > > >
> >   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > > >
> > > > > --
> > > > > Anthony Cornelius
> > > > > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > > > > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > > > > (07) 3390 4812
> > > > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > > > >
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> > your
> > > > >  message.
> > > >
> >   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > > --
> > > Anthony Cornelius
> > > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > > (07) 3390 4812
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> > >  message.
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> > >
> >
> >
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>
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-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.35.254.2]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 21:34:48 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2001 10:34:49.0349 (UTC) FILETIME=[E92EEB50:01C0A0A8]
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<x-flowed>
Hi group,
>
Dann wrote:
>Michael, Anthony and all....
>
>There has been an absence of squall line storms for the past few years,
>however, I do think that this year has been great even for the maligned
>Illawarra.

Dann I think your email supports Michael's point nicely  - the contrast 
between the western suburbs and the coastal strip, in terms of storms days, 
has been quite massive this season!! We may as well be on different 
continents!!!. Naturally the western suburbs always cops many more storms 
than the coast but this season has been a REAL flop here (Northern beaches) 
- very few mature thunderstorms have made it across the metro area and it 
compares very poorly to 95/96 (the best on memory in my 10 years in Beacon 
Hill), all of early/mid 90's and even 97/98.

From my observations, this has been a feature of the storm season right 
along the NSW coast - the only coastal area that seems to have been hammered 
quite regularly is the far south coast of NSW which appears, for reasons 
possibly topographical, to be a real hotspot in any case.

Here's hoping for mid level dry air tomorrow.  David
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 27 Feb 01 21:11:17 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Query on recent NSW weather
Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway 
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I noticed this email on another list.  The originator was asking about weather
conditions in the NSW area.  I've tried to cut it down to the relevant
sections.  The time period was Saturday Feb 24, through most of the day and the
evening.

=============================================================================
* Forwarded by Tony Langdon (3:633/284.18)
* Area : ECHO115 (VK VHF DX Info)
* From : Ron Cook, 3:633/284.100 (27 Feb 01 12:18)
* To   : All
* Subj : [VK-VHF] E's opening on 2m
=============================================================================

On Saturday there was an extensive E's opening on 2m in the Eastern states.
 As already reported, Brisbane and Adelaide stations worked each other.

<snip>

At 1059 Ch 0 was still extremely strong, but after 0320 nil heard here on
144.1.  Beacons were not heard during my short period in the shack.

It seems there might have been an E's cloud in central NSW.  The great
circle lines for Brisbane-Adelaide and Charters Towers-Melbourne intersect
near Cobar, however, if the cloud was nearer the N-S midpoint it would have
been close to Bourke.

Questions.

Were there any big thunderstorms in this area at the time?  Was there an
unusually high speed jet stream in that vicinity?

<snip>

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks to anyone who can shed some light in regards to the question posed
above.

P.S.  There's a lot of overlap between ham radio and the weather, as the latter
can considerably affect the behaviour of radio waves.

Tony, VK3JED

.. There's an old human saying; if you're going to talk garbage expect pain
--
|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.


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X-Originating-IP: [202.76.128.22]
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence0312 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 21:38:41 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2001 10:38:42.0179 (UTC) FILETIME=[73F5F530:01C0A0A9]
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<x-flowed>
Evening all,

I'm not proud to say that I have recorded a grand total of 1 - yes, that's 
ONE - thunderstorm day this summer.  I have experienced rather more storms 
but I have had to put in the kms to get to them.  TDU2K was absolutely 
brilliant (but that was actually during late spring) with not a single 
inactive day (except travel days), and I've certainly seen my fair share of 
storms & spent a lot of time 'up close and personal' with things I'd never 
seen like that before - the gust front from northern Victoria especially.

...it can only get better!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PS: Michael, one message would have done - I got 25 of these ones <g> - you 
don't have to brag thaaaaat much <ROTFL>

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------



>From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly in 
the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot,and 
the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off illustrate 
this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells,a major 
flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to top this 
season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd stayed 
at my home I would have missed most of the events !

_________________________________________________________________________
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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 10:27:53 +1100
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly 
in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, 
and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off 
illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, 
a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to 
top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd 
stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael


At 19:10 26/02/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi David,
>
>I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
>- BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
>think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
>thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
>have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
>October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
>- and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
>
>I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
>time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
>though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
>thunderstorm activity.
>
>I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
>also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
>weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
>gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
>past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
>than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
>photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
>
>Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
>season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
>Vic's!)
>
>AC
>
>David Findlay wrote:
> >
> > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> > century?
> >
> > David
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
>Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 10:27:53 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly 
in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, 
and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off 
illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, 
a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to 
top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd 
stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael


At 19:10 26/02/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi David,
>
>I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this season
>- BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with me - I
>think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The number of
>thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the thunderstorms
>have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month from
>October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous funnels/WC's
>- and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite impressive!
>
>I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the right
>time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to chase
>though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
>thunderstorm activity.
>
>I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these days - and
>also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic thunderstorms and
>weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage I've
>gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
>past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better season
>than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on 3
>photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
>
>Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
>season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies to the
>Vic's!)
>
>AC
>
>David Findlay wrote:
> >
> > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> > century?
> >
> > David
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
>Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 22:01:10 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Abigail images
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Evening all,

I know this is a horribly long URL but if you can manage to either click
on it or copy it and paste it into your browser, you get to have a look
at the images of TC Abigail since the 20th February - stunning visible
images!!!!

http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/tc-bin/tc_home?YEAR=2001&MO=Feb&BASIN=SHEM&STORM_NAME=12P.ABIGAIL&PROD=ir1km_bw&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Latest&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=active&CURRENT=20010226.0731.gms-5.vis.x.ABIGAIL.12P.jpg&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc01/SHEM/12P.ABIGAIL/ssmi/ir1km_bw&MOSAIC_SCALE=20%&STYLE=frames&ACTIVES=01-SHEM-12P.ABIGAIL,01-SHEM-91P.INVEST,01-SHEM-92S.INVEST



If you get lost, start here
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/tc-bin/tc_home
and click on 12P.ABIGAIL in the left hand frame.

You can also choose 1km images - visible, IR, tracks in the top right
hand corner....some stunning imagery!!!!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 11:48:23 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'd have to agree with AC that the season has been spectacular, certainly 
in the northeast of NSW where I live. I've been photographing weather since 
1987 and chasing since 1993 and this season has certainly topped the lot, 
and the 600 photos since late September when the storms kicked off 
illustrate this. The best lightning in years, 2 tornadoes, many supercells, 
a major flood in Lismore and the Casino HP monster. It will be very hard to 
top this season.

NE NSW has been fortunate in that many very big storm days have passed 
through the region. If I'd put more effort into getting into the Northern 
Tablelands there'd barely a bust day for the whole season. But if I'd 
stayed at my home I would have missed most of the events !

Michael



  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [202.76.128.22]
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence0312 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Forecasters Rules of Thumb
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 22:35:18 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2001 11:35:18.0698 (UTC) FILETIME=[5C71A0A0:01C0A0B1]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>


I wonder whether it would be a worthwhile exercise to collect our own 
"Forecasting Rules of Thumb" for the various areas of Australia along the 
same lines as has been done officially for the Hawaiian Islands (see link 
below).

I'd be quite happy to collate any information that people sent.......

If you're interested in contributing to something like this, have a look at 
the link & you'll see the sort of thing I'm thinking of.

Forecasting Rules of Thumb
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/handbook/page25.html

Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 21:37:19 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

To all Sydney Siders disappointed with this season...

It does make me grin as I watch a few people complain :)  I guess the
grass is always greener on the other side.  I know that I often fall
into the trap myself, why only 2 weeks ago I was sitting around quietly
complaining to myself.  Then I sat back and really reflected back on the
season to realise that it really hasn't been that bad.

As they say - it takes a truly bad season to realise how good the
previous ones have been.  I learnt that after complaining about the
98-99 storm season - then came 99-00, arguably the worst on record.  It
made me sit up and realise that 98-99 wasn't all that bad.  And no doubt
I think if a Brisbanite for this season can say that SE QLD's season
wasn't too bad - a Syndey-Siders surely has to say the same :-)

Although I really think it boils down to how much you can chase - time
and financial restrictions being the two main factors in preventing most
to chase (if we exclude the not being bothered/interested enough).  If
you chase - you'll see the results!

Just making general observation/discussion - hope no one interprets this
as a rude email...
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 21:35:19 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I take your points on board. But lets rephrase my original answer - lets say
that anywhere within 10kms of the coast has been a writeoff, even the storms
you refer to result in nothing but decaying anvil over the coast.

You need go no further than tonight as an example, RED radar over Goulburn,
no doubt hail in that one. But what was left over for the coast, light rain
and a few anvil crawlers about 10 mins apart.

Although Bowral comes under the Illawarra district, it is a totally
different world up there, above the sea breeze inversion, yet close enough
to get the mositure, and high enough to aid cap breaking. I do not really
count it as Illawarra. And yes I agree that the season up there has been a
good one, but don't forget that even in an average year the Bowral area gets
near twice the storms as the coast.



Michael


> Michael, Anthony and all....
>
> There has been an absence of squall line storms for the past few years,
> however, I do think that this year has been great even for the maligned
> Illawarra. This year has seen a lot of activity slightly west of the
> Illawarra, with the Bowral area spawning many thunderstorms this year. In
> fact, this has been a topic of discussion for many of us Sydney-siders,
who
> feel that this year has seen the Southern Highlands area especially the
> Bowral area being a hotspot of such. I have ended up in the Illawarra on
> three chases this season, and I know that Matt Smith has been very
familiar
> with that territory too.
>
> I think we tend to romanticise previous seasons sometimes because of a few
> great events. This season has been full of good events and the notable
great
> events. Certainly being on the net and seeing what you are missing can add
a
> touch of bitterness about weather events. But if we remember what we have
> had this season in a bigger perspective (Sydney/Illawarra/Southern
> Highlands) rather than a "...there is storms all around me but none here"
> attitude, there is no way this season could justifiably be labeled
> disappointing. Maybe from your perspective in the sheltered Illawarra it
may
> not seem like it has been a good season but in the overall picture it
> certainly has.
>
> For Illawarrians and Sydney-siders a line of activity is coming through at
> the moment. The odd flash can be seen from here at Cranebrook. This
activity
> is associated with a storm that looked pretty fierce on radar near
Goulburn
> about 90mins ago. Certainly the Goulburn AWS hasn't updated for 2 hours,
so
> some damage might have occurred there, or it has gone out for dinner to
> experience some of the dazzling Goulburn nightlife.
>
>
> dann
> __________________________
> Daniel Weatherhead
> Blaxland, NSW
> weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
> SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
> www.sydneystormchasers.com
>
>
>
>
>
> > I have to disagree about Sydney's season. For a Sydney sider and more
> > particularly an Illawarra-sider, if you did not chase as in putting on
> some
> > kilometres you would have been disappointed with Sydney's season.
> >
> > The season has been marked by numerous storms over the Blue Mountains
that
> > have drifted NE, or even propagated NW in many instances. But actual
> > convection over the coast has been well below average, they has been a
> > absence of squall line storms too.
> > Michael
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, 27 February 2001 10:09
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> >
> >
> > > I would actually think that Sydney has had sort of a Brisbane-type
> > > summer.  Consistently humid, hot and NE'lies.  They've had numerous
> > > storms develop from a trough that sits over the region and
thunderstorms
> > > develop then move off the ranges over the area.  This is what
"normally"
> > > happens in Brisbane - and this added extra fun to the storm season.
> > > Although many of these weren't severe - they would be fun with strong
> > > gusty winds, torrential rain and several skid-marking flangs :-)
> > >
> > > Ac
> > >
> > > David Findlay wrote:
> > > >
> > > > It's annoying though. Unless my memory is not correct, we used to
get
> > storms
> > > > nearly every day in summer.
> > > >
> > > > David
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon
> Clarke
> > > > Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 7:16 PM
> > > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> > > >
> > > > Anthony et al
> > > >
> > > > I agree, storm numbers down, but quality up. Having said this, I
know
> > many
> > > > in SEQ may have missed out completely.
> > > >
> > > > But hey, what an unusual season generally and much much better than
> last
> > > > year. Only now does it seem as though a more traditional pattern is
> > > > developing.
> > > >
> > > > I would like to think that TC Abigail may move south and south south
> > east to
> > > > drench SEQ as we desperately need some more rain. However what I
> think,
> > and
> > > > what the official prog say, are often very different.
> > > >
> > > > I will monitor your hopes for TS's later this week.
> > > >
> > > > Take care
> > > > Simon
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 8:10 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
> > > >
> > > > > Hi David,
> > > > >
> > > > > I agree with you that Brisbane has done horribly for storms this
> > season
> > > > > - BUT, I know there's going to be a few people who disagree with
> me -
> > I
> > > > > think SE QLD hasn't faired too badly so far this season.  The
number
> > of
> > > > > thunderstorms has been down, however the quality of the
> thunderstorms
> > > > > have generally been consistently high!  We had a very good month
> from
> > > > > October 14 to November 7!  I saw two tornadoes and numerous
> > funnels/WC's
> > > > > - and the number of supercells in the Nov 2-7 was quite
impressive!
> > > > >
> > > > > I think it's a case of being out there at the right place at the
> right
> > > > > time (ie storm chasing).  I know a lot of people don't want to
chase
> > > > > though, and that is fine.  But they are missing out on a lot of
> > > > > thunderstorm activity.
> > > > >
> > > > > I was very fortunate to be able to chase on so many of these
days -
> > and
> > > > > also TD2K was just phenomenal, with so many fantastic
thunderstorms
> > and
> > > > > weather events!  The number of photos and the amount of footage
I've
> > > > > gathered this year has been unparallel to anything I've had in the
> > > > > past.  And comparing that with 98-99 which was an arguably better
> > season
> > > > > than this one, the photo difference is quite high (I think I'm on
3
> > > > > photo albums for this season vs nearly 1).
> > > > >
> > > > > Seems like the further south you go though, the better the t'storm
> > > > > season was!  (Until you go further south than Sydney - apologies
to
> > the
> > > > > Vic's!)
> > > > >
> > > > > AC
> > > > >
> > > > > David Findlay wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade?
> this
> > > > > > century?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > David
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the
body
> of
> > > > your
> > > > > >  message.
> > > > >
>
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > > >
> > > > > --
> > > > > Anthony Cornelius
> > > > > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > > > > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > > > > (07) 3390 4812
> > > > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > > > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
of
> > your
> > > > >  message.
> > > >
>
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > > >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > > >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > > --
> > > Anthony Cornelius
> > > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > > (07) 3390 4812
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 06:56:40 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: off topic: duplicate posts
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Sorry for all those duplicate posts - yet another email stuff up from 
Ozemail. My email program was getting "send receive failure notices", but 
obviously they were getting through !! - several hours late though

MB


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 08:53:09 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chase Fever
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

The subject title says it all. I had predicted I would be ill today and so 
be it. I have taken two days off although tomorrow is official business not 
chasing.....


Today is chasing.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 08:13:17 +1000
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How about all you storm chasers get in your Holden's spin around in the Gold
Coast hinterland and generate a storm for us that will move straight up the
coast! :-)

David

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of andrew maben
Sent: Monday, 26 February 2001 5:00 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?


Well David, if you get one in Brisbane, send it up north to the sunshine
coast.
NSW are not sharing.....
Andrew Maben


----- Original Message -----
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 3:54 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Storms this year?


> Are we gunna get any storms in Brisbane this year? this decade? this
> century?
>
> David
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 07:24:16 -0800
From: Lindsay Pearce <writer at lisp.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Katoomba thunderstorm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Hi all,

Apologies if I repeat anything that has been said about this storm, I'm still
having modem problems (ie: haven't read mail yet) and have reverted back to my
old win 3.1 system, curiously its much more reliable than my big, new system and
its sickly winmodem...

I was in Katoomba picking up my new USB modem (Which is still not dialling out
after 4 hours of trying, last night) at around 4pm, when the storm hit big time.
Driving home, the rain was very heavy and the lightning constant. We pulled over
at Medlow Bath as it was simply too hard to drive in the conditions and resumed
our trip home a few minutes later, only to be surrounded by an amazing strike of
lightning. The flash and crack was instantaneous and on the right and left of
the car (roughly 30 feet to either side)  two seperate balls of lightning glowed
brilliantly for what seemed like a second or two (maybe longer). On the drivers
side, this ball seemed to explode and demolish a tree. We had the windows up but
the sound still nearly deafened us. At the time it didn't feel that exciting as
it was pretty terrifying driving in such conditions, with lightning flashing
everywhere and very close to us, still, I am curious now, after the experience,
to understand what such a strike (and the glowing balls) might have been.

It was a pretty amazing experience.

Cheers,


Lindsay Pearce


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Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 09:52:22 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: HOLDEN Ute ad - was Storms this year
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi David, I take it you are referring to the new Holden Ute advertisement?

For those who haven't seen it, the driver spins up a tornado which develops 
into a storm and rain in a desert scene. The driver rips around a dry lake 
to achieve this feat ! So that's how we get tornadoes !!!

MB


At 08:13 28/02/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>How about all you storm chasers get in your Holden's spin around in the Gold
>Coast hinterland and generate a storm for us that will move straight up the
>coast! :-)
>
>David


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 10:15:10 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: HOLDEN Ute ad - was Storms this year
From: "twc at theweather.com.au" <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Excellent ad. I loved it. Too bad they are spinning the wrong way.


----------
>From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: HOLDEN Ute ad - was Storms this year
>Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 9:52
>

> Hi David, I take it you are referring to the new Holden Ute advertisement?
>
> For those who haven't seen it, the driver spins up a tornado which develops
> into a storm and rain in a desert scene. The driver rips around a dry lake
> to achieve this feat ! So that's how we get tornadoes !!!
>
> MB
>
>
> At 08:13 28/02/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>>How about all you storm chasers get in your Holden's spin around in the Gold
>>Coast hinterland and generate a storm for us that will move straight up the
>>coast! :-)
>>
>>David
>
>
>   =============================================================
>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   =============================================================
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 10:29:01 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: HOLDEN Ute ad - was Storms this year
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

can't say ive seen it...maybe they arent airing it in sydney

Anyway storms are reforming along the trough line already to the south...
Im not sure where to head... south to Goulburn where the storms could be really
good or
turn into a rainy mess later... or out towards bathurst where the storms could be
good again,
but could track over the ranges and it would be hell getting back to home if htat
happened.
decisions decisions...
For those that havent looked, check out the forecast for sydney and surrounds !

Matt Smith

Michael Bath wrote:

> Hi David, I take it you are referring to the new Holden Ute advertisement?
>
> For those who haven't seen it, the driver spins up a tornado which develops
> into a storm and rain in a desert scene. The driver rips around a dry lake
> to achieve this feat ! So that's how we get tornadoes !!!
>
> MB
>
> At 08:13 28/02/2001 +1000, you wrote:
> >How about all you storm chasers get in your Holden's spin around in the Gold
> >Coast hinterland and generate a storm for us that will move straight up the
> >coast! :-)
> >
> >David
>
>   =============================================================
>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   =============================================================
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Bom soundings
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 11:42:05 +1100
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Hi all,

Could someone give me some guidance on the temperature soundings on the
Bom's pages.

Are there any good links to understanding them?

Also, where can I view  Li's and CAPE? I've looked at total-totals but they
don't always seem indicative of storm development.

Thanks for your help, in advance.

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [210.8.224.2]
From: "James Harris" <jimboharr at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NSW Storms
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 12:02:24 +1100
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<x-flowed>

Just on Matt's Email earlier onthe Storms forming in Southern NSW , there is 
now a Sever Thunderstorm Warning out for the Southern Central parts of NSW.
In Sydney the cloud has cleared to the West and from my position in Nth 
Sydney it is now possible to clearly see the cells out near Young , 
Cootamundra from here. Certainly a very impressive sight considering they 
are over 200kms away !! They have a very nice pinkish Horizon feel to them 
!!
Wish I was chasing !!!!

James Harris

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "Bill Webb" <billwebb at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Twin systems......
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 11:03:34 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Hi all,

Sorry for late reply to Paul's message.

I noted the area of convection Paul referred to, but wish to comment on the
"twin system" aspect.

Some years ago - cannot remember the year - twin cyclones (large) formed
either side of the equator NNE of Aus. The image was decidedly spectacular.

The result, a severe El Nino event.

Apparently the combined effect of the northern anti-clockwise rotation and
the southern clockwise rotation swept warm water along the equator from the
north of Aus to the Eastern side of the Pacific.

Any comments?

Bill,
in a soggy, but currently beeyutiful Proserpine, NQ

----- Original Message -----
From: Paul Mossman <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: Aussie Weather Mail List <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>; Aussie
Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 01:09 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Twin systems......


> Hi all - with TC Abigail intensifying in the Gulf - a twin system has
formed
> in the Northern Hemisphere almost due north of Abigial!!
>
> This is becoming a norm lately...... wonder what causes the phenomena?
>
> Paul in a Windy Darwin
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Met support" <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Twin systems......
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 13:04:15 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Bill and all

This is really interesting that you should mention this, as it is not the
first time I have heard it. In my Physical Oceanography subject at uni last
year, I did a research project on El Nino, and one aspect of it was looking
at the beginning of an El Nino event, and how it could possibly be
predicted. One book did mention the twin cyclone phenomenon, and said that
it was an important precursor to the development of El Nino conditions. It
normally indicated that an El Nino event would occur in approximately 6
months time. However, despite the fact it stated this correlation, it didn't
actually give a reason for it.

The explanation you give does seem attractive in some respects. But they
both would have to be extremely long-lived cyclones which progressed a long
way eastwards across the Pacific I would have thought, to have a noticeable
effect on SSTs and the thermocline. Maybe the formation of the 2 strong
cyclones would deform the trade wind pattern sufficiently enough to restrict
the usual pushing of water westwards. Trade winds tend to be the major
driving force behind large scale surface oceanic flows(as well as other
things of course), so if they were disturbed, then that might set off the
chain of events leading to an El Nino event.

Not sure...any El Nino experts care to comment?

Matt Pearce

----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill Webb" <billwebb at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 12:03 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Twin systems......


> Hi all,
>
> Sorry for late reply to Paul's message.
>
> I noted the area of convection Paul referred to, but wish to comment on
the
> "twin system" aspect.
>
> Some years ago - cannot remember the year - twin cyclones (large) formed
> either side of the equator NNE of Aus. The image was decidedly
spectacular.
>
> The result, a severe El Nino event.
>
> Apparently the combined effect of the northern anti-clockwise rotation and
> the southern clockwise rotation swept warm water along the equator from
the
> north of Aus to the Eastern side of the Pacific.
>
> Any comments?
>
> Bill,
> in a soggy, but currently beeyutiful Proserpine, NQ
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Paul Mossman <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
> To: Aussie Weather Mail List <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>; Aussie
> Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 01:09 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Twin systems......
>
>
> > Hi all - with TC Abigail intensifying in the Gulf - a twin system has
> formed
> > in the Northern Hemisphere almost due north of Abigial!!
> >
> > This is becoming a norm lately...... wonder what causes the phenomena?
> >
> > Paul in a Windy Darwin
> >
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: HOLDEN Ute ad - was Storms this year
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 12:31:22 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Yep! Looks pretty cool! Why don't you guys try it! If it doesn't work, sue
for false advertising!

David

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Michael Bath
Sent: Wednesday, 28 February 2001 8:52 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: HOLDEN Ute ad - was Storms this year


Hi David, I take it you are referring to the new Holden Ute advertisement?

For those who haven't seen it, the driver spins up a tornado which develops
into a storm and rain in a desert scene. The driver rips around a dry lake
to achieve this feat ! So that's how we get tornadoes !!!

MB


At 08:13 28/02/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>How about all you storm chasers get in your Holden's spin around in the
Gold
>Coast hinterland and generate a storm for us that will move straight up the
>coast! :-)
>
>David


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High temps
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 14:44:57 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> 
> 
> Anyone notice the high temps in NW NSW in recent days.
> Tibooburra yesterday reached 46 - by my records, it was the first 46
> degree temp in NSW in February since Ivanhoe reached 46 on 17 Feb 1981
> and we have to go back to 7 Feb 1970 for Hay on 47 to beat it. also 45
> at a few places - White Cliffs / wilcannaia and 44 I think in Bourke...
> any Feb recxords here?.

Hadn't noticed that it had gone that high.

The exact number was 45.6, highest in NSW since at least the 
controversial 45.8 at Liverpool on 1/2/77 (discussed a few weeks ago
in this group), otherwise since 46.7 at Hay on 7/2/70. (The 17/2/81
obs at Ivanhoe was 45.5). The NSW February record (based on the 
digital archive) is 47.2, set on no fewer than 5 different occasions
(most recently at Hay and Urana on 1/2/1968).

The Tibooburra temperature is the highest since at least 1921 (I've
got digitised 1921-56 data to add to the post-1957 stuff in the main
database) for February there.


> Given that the best March has manged in the past 40 years is 43, it must
> be the latest in the season for a +45 degree temp in NSW for a very long
> time. Any one on how long? 

Tibooburra had 45.0 on 1/3/1951. I expect that is the most recent 45+
later than this.

Blair

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X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.19]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: HOLDEN Ute ad - was Storms this year
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 15:06:58 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Feb 2001 04:06:58.0257 (UTC) FILETIME=[E4F1D410:01C0A13B]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi every1,

...If you think that ad was sad, try to imagine that one seriously proposed 
method of tornadogenesis in the early 70's involved vortices generated from 
cars passing one another on long stretches of straight freeway!!!

We've come a long way, baby! :))

BTW...I've just finished updating (after six months) my US portion of my 
site. So if the sight of enormous state-spanning supercells viewed from 
space sounds attractive...dive in!

http://members.fortunecity.com/wycheproof/satpix.html

Cheers,
Kevin from wycheproof.


>From: "twc at theweather.com.au" <twc at theweather.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: HOLDEN Ute ad - was Storms this year
>Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 10:15:10 +1100
>
>Excellent ad. I loved it. Too bad they are spinning the wrong way.
>
>
>----------
> >From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
> >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >Subject: aus-wx: HOLDEN Ute ad - was Storms this year
> >Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 9:52
> >
>
> > Hi David, I take it you are referring to the new Holden Ute 
>advertisement?
> >
> > For those who haven't seen it, the driver spins up a tornado which 
>develops
> > into a storm and rain in a desert scene. The driver rips around a dry 
>lake
> > to achieve this feat ! So that's how we get tornadoes !!!
> >
> > MB
> >
> >
> > At 08:13 28/02/2001 +1000, you wrote:
> >>How about all you storm chasers get in your Holden's spin around in the 
>Gold
> >>Coast hinterland and generate a storm for us that will move straight up 
>the
> >>coast! :-)
> >>
> >>David
> >
> >
> >   =============================================================
> >   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> >   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
> >   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
> >   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> >   =============================================================
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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</x-flowed>
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 00:11:22 -0500 (EST)
From: Rhett Blanch <rhett_blanch at mail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Spectacular in Balmain
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It looks like the end is nigh here in Balmain, extremely dark and ominous, very low cloud and scud flying about.  Lightning to the West.

Rhett Blanch
Rhett Blanch
43/23 Herbert St
St Leonards NSW 2065
0412669620
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "macdonald" <sclmacdonald at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Tallai monthly report
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 15:31:52 +1000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2919.6307" name=GENERATOR>
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</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>G'day All</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Temperatures:</DIV>
<DIV>The average max of 28.05 was close to the 1999 average of 27.9. The min 
average was 19.85. There was 4 days 30 or above, and the highest was 31.2 on the 
14th. The lowest max was on the 1st. The highest min was on the 4th - 24.4, and 
the lowest was on the 21st at 16.6.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Rainfall:</DIV>
<DIV>From the 1st - 3rd 408.5mm of rain fell.&nbsp; The rain was occompanied by 
strong winds at times. This caused moderate to major flooding in the creek. The 
total montly rainfall for this month is 454.5mm. There were 11 days of 
rain.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Storms:</DIV>
<DIV>nil</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Sam</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Originating-IP: [203.134.67.3]
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Summer ends with a bang
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 17:36:06 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Feb 2001 06:36:06.0698 (UTC) FILETIME=[BAA190A0:01C0A150]
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<x-flowed>
     Glenorie 525pm,
        Wow, what a way to end summer, like James said the severe storms 
have just been visible all day from down sw at 10-11am and just encroaching 
closer and closer, till they have just passed over now, took some nice time 
lapse video of parts of it.  The main part of the storm dumped 12mm here in 
10 minutes but no hail.  What are they called 'flangs'?? had plenty of 
those, the type that make Jimmy pack a few extra underpants on his chases.   
Just now a heavy sunshower with a bright rainbow to the east. With the sun 
out brightly again a few more cells might pop up soon, hopefully.
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X-Originating-IP: [203.35.254.2]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Squall line
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 17:52:57 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Feb 2001 06:52:57.0810 (UTC) FILETIME=[154D0320:01C0A153]
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<x-flowed>
Funnily, after complaints by chasers concerning the lack of squall lines 
through Sydney this season, we finally got one and it was a CLASSIC!!! -  
nice shelf cloud, beautiful black, deep blue and green colouring to the 
precip curtain and, of course, alot of lightning. I was trying to get into 
position somewhere on the north side and ended up being caught in Belrose - 
it was moving quite quickly.  regards   David
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</x-flowed>
From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Summer ends with a bang
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 17:54:00 +1100
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5.50 pm  Heavy thunderstorm has just passed over me here at Cooranbong (near
Dora Creek on the Williamtown radar).  Lasted about 35 minutes, heavy rain
and a good lightning show, no wind to speak of.  More interesting clouds are
approaching from the south, and the cool change has just arrive too ... what
a relief.

Cheers,
Barbara

----- Original Message -----
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, 28 February 2001 5:36
Subject: aus-wx: Summer ends with a bang


>      Glenorie 525pm,
>         Wow, what a way to end summer, like James said the severe storms
> have just been visible all day from down sw at 10-11am and just
encroaching
> closer and closer, till they have just passed over now, took some nice
time
> lapse video of parts of it.  The main part of the storm dumped 12mm here
in
> 10 minutes but no hail.  What are they called 'flangs'?? had plenty of
> those, the type that make Jimmy pack a few extra underpants on his chases.
> Just now a heavy sunshower with a bright rainbow to the east. With the sun
> out brightly again a few more cells might pop up soon, hopefully.
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Karratha Weather" <karratha at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: STA for WA - Severe wind gusts to 110km/h  at  Dalwallinu NE of Perth
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 15:01:23 +0800
Organization: Karratha Weather Observations
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BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

PRIORITY
FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
Issued at 2:35 pm WST on Wednesday, 28 February 2001

People in the Central West, western Central WheatBelt and adjacent Lower
West_
Districts are advised that there is a risk of severe thunderstorms during
the
remainder of this afternoon and evening.

Storms may be accompanied by flash flooding and strong winds that could
result
in damage to property.

Strong winds have been observed at Dalwallinu with gusts to 110km/h.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should keep a lookout for
thunderstorms and if storms approach secure loose items, move vehicles under
cover, then stay indoors until the storms have passed. Driving conditions
may be
hazardous.

This Thunderstorm Advice will be updated at 5:30 pm.

Regards

JJ

Karratha WA
www.karrathaweather.org


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Reply-To: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
	<aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Illawarra Squall line
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 18:37:31 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au

The squall line moved through the Illawarra coast around 2.30pm.

I captured a gustnado on video and hope to have the still up later tonight.

I swear there was hail in this system, yet no reports from anybody at work
about it ( lots rang home to check the dogs, etc ).

Some tree branches down around Port Kembla. Winds are back to NE again (
6.00pm ) and convection is still occurring to the west and south but is
looking weaker by the hour. However, I am surprised that no significant
cells developed in behind the main squall, although this seems to be
happening north of Lithgow at present.


Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com



--
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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Illawarra Squall line
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 18:37:31 +1100
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The squall line moved through the Illawarra coast around 2.30pm.

I captured a gustnado on video and hope to have the still up later tonight.

I swear there was hail in this system, yet no reports from anybody at work
about it ( lots rang home to check the dogs, etc ).

Some tree branches down around Port Kembla. Winds are back to NE again (
6.00pm ) and convection is still occurring to the west and south but is
looking weaker by the hour. However, I am surprised that no significant
cells developed in behind the main squall, although this seems to be
happening north of Lithgow at present.


Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms this year?
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 18:28:17 +1100
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That's correct !  How much you chase makes the difference. Comparing as in
one E Mail ( not yours ) Bowral to coastal Illawarra is like me suggesting
to you that because Beaudesert had a good season, Brisbane too has had a
good one too, which is obviously not the case.

Nothing rude in it Anthony, we should be able to debate the topic as freely
as possible. Critique the issues, but never the person is my motto.

Michael

>
> Although I really think it boils down to how much you can chase - time
> and financial restrictions being the two main factors in preventing most
> to chase (if we exclude the not being bothered/interested enough).  If
> you chase - you'll see the results!
>
> Just making general observation/discussion - hope no one interprets this
> as a rude email...
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 18:51:34 +1100
From: Susan Puddifer <susanpud at healey.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.75 (Macintosh; U; PPC)
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To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms In Sydney
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Susan From Balmain
Sitting in my office in Balmain and peering out through the warehouse to
the frosted window there, I noticed that the light coming through was
nearly non-existant.  Quickly load my internet connection - hiding from
the boss and trying not to let anyone else see what I am doing.
Beautiful looking squall line.  Hadnt had a lunch break so raced outside
with the excuse of having a quick couple of puffs on my cigarette as my
lunch break.
Heavy mammatus nearly covered the entire sky.  Low down to the south
west the heavy cloud had a very greenish tinge.  At this stage it
started to rain lightly - not much lightning or thunder at all really.
Did notice an unusual smell though, a bit like that baked earth smell on
a very hot day in the country.
One interesting thing though - just as the first few raindrops started,
a plane was coming in on the glidepath, saw it quickly climb and turn
away from the storm front very very fast.
Returned to my office and rang daughter in town who works on the 25th
floor of a major building and proceeded to tell me that she was unable
to see the building 10 metres away from her window as the rain was so
heavy.  While I was on the phone to her she saw two CGs, one hit on the
North Shore somewhere and the other one probably around the Gladesville
area.
Anyway the clouds disappeared quite quickly after that and the sun is
out again.
Susan

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Weather Myths that need exploding !
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 17:55:26 +1100
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<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jane O'Neill</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This is partly in response to your e-mail regarding 
Forecasters Rules of Thumb (which I think is a great idea).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>At the last QLD ASWA meeting we touched on a few 
'weather myths that need exploding !' as part of a potential&nbsp;overall 
educational package. The ones I remember were:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>'Fraser Island has magical magnetic powers that 
will repeal any&nbsp;TC's away from&nbsp;SE QLD'.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>'Only green coloured thunderstorms produce 
hail'&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;- &nbsp;So need to worry about the pretty white (hail) 
shafts&nbsp;on the rear side of a storm.'</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I'm sure there are many others (perhaps local 
folklore) that could be added.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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X-Originating-IP: [198.142.198.53]
From: "Shane Astridge" <theazzdude at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Wagga area storms Tues 27th
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 19:56:10 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Feb 2001 08:56:10.0751 (UTC) FILETIME=[4BD648F0:01C0A164]
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<x-flowed>
Hello list =]

It was a busy day for storms on Tuesday in our area. At 3:15pm in Narrandera 
(were I work in the warmer months)we had a small storm with a few decent 
rumbles, and some medium rain and squally winds. Only lasted about 5 or 10 
minutes at most. Then about a half hour later I looked east and there was a 
line of crisp anvils toward Wagga. After work I drove from Narrandera to my 
parent's farm about 20min west of Wagga and there were swathes of gum trees 
with medium/large branches missing from the majority of them. The damage 
would have started around Galore (about 50km from Wagga) along the Sturt 
Highway. There was one newish farmhouse (very exposed) with the iron 
verandah spread across the paddock for several hundred metres and their shed 
was flattened. About 15km out (Collingullie) there  were a number of large 
gums down and heaps more branches. In Wagga there were quite a few trees 
down and apparently a few roofs missing + some flash flooding. They had the 
guy from the bureau office in Wagga on the radio and I think he said they 
recorded 102km/h gusts before the power went out. Though looking at the tree 
damage I'd guess it was comparable to our 119km/h storm in FEB a couple of 
years back (1998 I think).

Later that night at my parent's place at about 9pm we had another huge 
storm. It lasted 20min or so and at first I thought it was going to miss us 
by about 10km as it was travelling E-NE quickly but it seemed to have built 
up on the south-western end quickly and we ended up with one of the best  
storms I have seen. Before it reached us there were dozens of powerful CG's 
to the North-West of us - if only I'd had some film
=[!!! - then before it reached us we could hear the most amazing sound like 
a train off in the distance for about 10 min... (probably the heavy rain but 
it was very unnerving) then the rain blew in with strong squally winds and 
lightning every second (or more like 2 every second!!). The next day at work 
there were comments from people who live in Narrandera that it was one of 
the best lightning shows they'd seen.... and particular mention was made 
(from several people) of lightning from cloud to the surrounding sky... pity 
I couldn't see it. An interesting day though =]

Regards, Shane
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From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Squall line
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 20:17:25 +1100
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Well just returned from a great chase. I headed out 
at 1'ish to meet up with Jimmy and Matthew, but never quite made it. A nice 
shelf cloud had formed&nbsp;as I headed toward Camden. I turned West into 
Cobbity and drove to the a great lookout where I observed a very nasty guster 
that was dropping CG's and that was hurtling along quite nicely. The line had 
developed solidly to the&nbsp;north. The heavy rainshaft was about 1km away but 
1-2cm hail was falling in drifts erratically. So as not to get enveloped by the 
system I hotfooted it back to The Northern Rd and proceeded to follow the line 
north up toward Penrith. The contrast of the storms was truly magnificent. To my 
north (somewhere near Richmond)&nbsp; two very nice looking cells were 
developing with a nice height and&nbsp;tilt to them.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Stopping in Luddenham I photographed a beautiful 
red lowering with had obvious rotation. There were strobe like CG's popping out 
of it but the rain and lightning was too close for comfort for me to put up 
shop.&nbsp;The line went from my far ESE all the way to my NW.&nbsp; I headed 
for Orchard hills to try to get some photos of the approaching front. I observed 
a very dynamic&nbsp; guster which was very low with all the scud feeding in. 
Heading north through Penrith the line hit we wit force. The winds brought down 
trees (some big ones at that too!) and there was debris, dust&nbsp;and rubbish 
being blown along in the very strong gusts. I got caught it the downpour in 
Penrith but got infront of it and headed toward Richmond. Here I observed the 
back of a very strong cell in the Hunter while the approaching rain came up from 
the south. There was brief downpour but after some time I saw the spectacular 
rear of the entire squall line system. I took about a roll of film&nbsp; here 
taking in features from and back end development, to lowerings, to hailshafts 
(and hailfoots), cgs and sensational outflow scud.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>There appeared to be more development behind this 
activity to the SW&nbsp;but it has since died, although a line has persisted 
over the upper Hawkesbury/Lower Hunter since. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A more in depth report and photos will be posted on 
SSC shortly.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>dann</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>__________________________<BR>Daniel Weatherhead 
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From: "Matthew Piper" <mjpiper at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Gustnado
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 21:16:22 +1100
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Hi Michael and all,

I too saw what looked very much like a funnel of some sort but I couldnt get
a clear enough look at it. Matt Pearce was with me at the time at work and
drew my attention to it. It was right where a gustnado would likely be
amongst one of the most beautiful shelf clouds I have seen for a long time.
The green colouring in this storm and the chaotic cloud motion was also
certainly a sight to behold. This is by far the best storm I have seen in
Sydney this season structure wise.

Matthew Piper

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From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
	"Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Darwin Tornado
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 20:03:10 +0930
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Hi all - the severe storm that hit Darwin & suburbs also had a Tornado as
well!!

Several northern suburbs were damage - the line of the tornado was several
K's long and about 300m wide.

Doppler radar does show some vortices.

Winds before the storm were 40knot westerlies, and behind the storm were 50
knot plus Southerlies - some decent shear.

BOM had a damage inspection tour this afternoon - and have confirmed in the
interim as Tornadic damage.

More details to come......

Paul.

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From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Darwin Tornado
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 20:03:10 +0930
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all - the severe storm that hit Darwin & suburbs also had a Tornado as
well!!

Several northern suburbs were damage - the line of the tornado was several
K's long and about 300m wide.

Doppler radar does show some vortices.

Winds before the storm were 40knot westerlies, and behind the storm were 50
knot plus Southerlies - some decent shear.

BOM had a damage inspection tour this afternoon - and have confirmed in the
interim as Tornadic damage.

More details to come......

Paul.

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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
	<aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Report and video stills of todays squall line
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 21:49:09 +1100
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I have put up several video stills and a report at

http://ozthunder.com/chase/chase22.htm


The gustnado still looked better in real life.

Just started to rain here again ( 9.30pm )

Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com



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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gustnado
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 21:50:38 +1100
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I agree about the structure Matthew, the best we have had here in Wollongong
this year.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Matthew Piper" <mjpiper at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, 28 February 2001 21:16
Subject: aus-wx: Gustnado


> Hi Michael and all,
>
> I too saw what looked very much like a funnel of some sort but I couldnt
get
> a clear enough look at it. Matt Pearce was with me at the time at work and
> drew my attention to it. It was right where a gustnado would likely be
> amongst one of the most beautiful shelf clouds I have seen for a long
time.
> The green colouring in this storm and the chaotic cloud motion was also
> certainly a sight to behold. This is by far the best storm I have seen in
> Sydney this season structure wise.
>
> Matthew Piper
>
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Report and video stills of todays squall line
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 21:49:09 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I have put up several video stills and a report at

http://ozthunder.com/chase/chase22.htm


The gustnado still looked better in real life.

Just started to rain here again ( 9.30pm )

Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Wagga area storms Tues 27th
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 22:15:50 +1100
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Thanks for your informative report Shane. I watched this line on the radar
and knowing that the Wagga radar routinely seems to underestimates I knew
that the system was potentially severe.

The squall line actually lasted as severe to past Goulburn later. Around
8.30pm the remnants even made the coast around Kiama, just some steady rain
and anvil crawler lightning.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Shane Astridge" <theazzdude at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, 28 February 2001 19:56
Subject: aus-wx: Wagga area storms Tues 27th


> Hello list =]
>
> It was a busy day for storms on Tuesday in our area. At 3:15pm in
Narrandera
> (were I work in the warmer months)we had a small storm with a few decent
> rumbles, and some medium rain and squally winds. Only lasted about 5 or 10
> minutes at most. Then about a half hour later I looked east and there was
a
> line of crisp anvils toward Wagga. After work I drove from Narrandera to
my
> parent's farm about 20min west of Wagga and there were swathes of gum
trees
> with medium/large branches missing from the majority of them. The damage
> would have started around Galore (about 50km from Wagga) along the Sturt
> Highway. There was one newish farmhouse (very exposed) with the iron
> verandah spread across the paddock for several hundred metres and their
shed
> was flattened. About 15km out (Collingullie) there  were a number of large
> gums down and heaps more branches. In Wagga there were quite a few trees
> down and apparently a few roofs missing + some flash flooding. They had
the
> guy from the bureau office in Wagga on the radio and I think he said they
> recorded 102km/h gusts before the power went out. Though looking at the
tree
> damage I'd guess it was comparable to our 119km/h storm in FEB a couple of
> years back (1998 I think).
>
> Later that night at my parent's place at about 9pm we had another huge
> storm. It lasted 20min or so and at first I thought it was going to miss
us
> by about 10km as it was travelling E-NE quickly but it seemed to have
built
> up on the south-western end quickly and we ended up with one of the best
> storms I have seen. Before it reached us there were dozens of powerful
CG's
> to the North-West of us - if only I'd had some film
> =[!!! - then before it reached us we could hear the most amazing sound
like
> a train off in the distance for about 10 min... (probably the heavy rain
but
> it was very unnerving) then the rain blew in with strong squally winds and
> lightning every second (or more like 2 every second!!). The next day at
work
> there were comments from people who live in Narrandera that it was one of
> the best lightning shows they'd seen.... and particular mention was made
> (from several people) of lightning from cloud to the surrounding sky...
pity
> I couldn't see it. An interesting day though =]
>
> Regards, Shane
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 21:38:52 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gustnado
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I hope you got some photos Matt !!!!
For me... the Nov 3 supercell would be the best structure this season in the
Sydney area.

Myself, Jimmy and Mario were chasing and ended up at Camden after watching some
huge updraughts exploding to the SW. Ever so slowly the storm came closer and
had a nice guster on it, and outflow was very pronounced with lots of dust being
kicked up, and it was a great relief to get into some outflow after a hot muggy
day.  We waited in the rain core for a while hoping to get some hail... (we
didnt see any) then continued on North towards the M4 and then East. We were
basically following the squall line NE the best we could. A few flangs made it
more exciting,  and the rain at times was tremendously heavy. I could not see
Jimmys tail lights 40 metres away or so, some of the heaviest I have driven
through. (For people on TDU in spring, it was heavier than the rain we had on
the Banana supercell day)
We drove to Blacktown, then headed back up towards Windsor and watched the
storms move up to wards the hunter hoping some more would pop up in the clear
air on the ranges... none did, so we went and had dinner at the Mean Fiddler
hotel and went back to Jimmys house to watch the sunlite CB's to our N and NW.

Great to hear about the gustnado's ! When watching the guster pass overhead near
Camden,there was deffinate area's of rotation in it with a nice green tinge...
(right above our heads!), photos will look similar to captures Anthony has of a
funnel thing overhead in one of his reports. Photos etc will be up at a later
date.
A good day today, and hopefully a bit more this weekend sometime.

Matthew Smith
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com

Matthew Piper wrote:

> Hi Michael and all,
>
> I too saw what looked very much like a funnel of some sort but I couldnt get
> a clear enough look at it. Matt Pearce was with me at the time at work and
> drew my attention to it. It was right where a gustnado would likely be
> amongst one of the most beautiful shelf clouds I have seen for a long time.
> The green colouring in this storm and the chaotic cloud motion was also
> certainly a sight to behold. This is by far the best storm I have seen in
> Sydney this season structure wise.
>
> Matthew Piper
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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