[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks November 2007
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks November 2007 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - NOVEMBER 2007
!!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!!
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NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained
from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which
is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
ological Centre for the basin. In a few instances, information from
warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized.
The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com-
pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column
when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings
issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines'
Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA). A special thanks to Michael for his efforts.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Typhoon PEIPAH (21W / 0721 / KABAYAN) 02 - 10 Nov
Tropical Storm TAPAH (22W / 0722) 10 - 13 Nov
Tropical Storm LANDO-Typhoon HAGIBIS (23W / 0724) 18 - 28 Nov
Typhoon MITAG (24W / 0723 / MINA) 20 - 27 Nov
Tropical Depression (25W) 26 - 27 Nov
Tropical Storm (26W) 28 - 29 Nov
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Storm Name: PEIPAH Cyclone Number: 21W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: KABAYAN JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0721
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
07 NOV 02 0600 18.0 N 132.0 E 1004 25 JMA bulletins
07 NOV 02 1200 18.0 N 132.0 E 1006 25
07 NOV 02 1800 18.4 N 130.5 E 1004 30
07 NOV 03 0000 18.3 N 129.4 E 1006 30
07 NOV 03 0600 17.7 N 128.4 E 1004 25 30
07 NOV 03 1200 17.6 N 127.4 E 1002 35 35 JMA: 18.2N/127.8E
07 NOV 03 1800 17.4 N 125.8 E 994 45 45 JMA: 17.9N/126.1E
07 NOV 04 0000 16.9 N 124.8 E 992 55 50
07 NOV 04 0600 16.8 N 123.4 E 985 60 55
07 NOV 04 1200 16.8 N 122.5 E 980 65 60
07 NOV 04 1800 17.2 N 120.9 E 985 65 55 Inland in Luzon
07 NOV 05 0000 17.6 N 119.8 E 985 55 55
07 NOV 05 0600 17.7 N 119.2 E 985 55 55 Over South China Sea
07 NOV 05 1200 17.9 N 118.8 E 985 55 55
07 NOV 05 1800 18.0 N 118.8 E 985 65 55
07 NOV 06 0000 18.4 N 118.6 E 980 70 60
07 NOV 06 0600 18.6 N 118.4 E 970 75 70
07 Nov 06 1200 18.7 N 118.1 E 970 75 70
07 NOV 06 1800 18.4 N 117.7 E 970 70 70
07 NOV 07 0000 18.3 N 117.1 E 975 70 65 JMA: 18.6N/117.7E
07 NOV 07 0600 18.5 N 116.7 E 980 65 60
07 NOV 07 1200 17.7 N 115.6 E 990 50 50
07 NOV 07 1800 17.1 N 114.6 E 992 40 45
07 NOV 08 0000 16.7 N 114.0 E 994 30 40
07 NOV 08 0600 16.3 N 113.5 E 994 30 40
07 NOV 08 1200 15.8 N 112.8 E 998 30 40 JMA: 16.4N/113.0E
07 NOV 08 1800 15.4 N 112.1 E 1002 30 35 JMA: 16.3N/112.7E
07 NOV 09 0000 13.7 N 111.6 E 1004 25 30 JMA: 15.0N/113.0E
07 NOV 09 0600 12.7 N 111.0 E 1004 25 25
07 NOV 09 1200 11.9 N 110.6 E 1004 25 25 Final JTWC warning
07 NOV 09 1800 11.9 N 110.4 E 1004 25 JTWC satellite fixes
07 NOV 10 0000 11.5 N 109.8 E 1006 25
07 NOV 10 0600 11.5 N 108.5 E 1006 25 Inland in Vietnam
07 NOV 10 1200 11.6 N 106.9 E 1008 20 JMA: 12.0N/108.0E
07 NOV 10 1800 12.3 N 104.3 E 15
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Storm Name: TAPAH Cyclone Number: 22W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0722
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
07 NOV 10 1800 19.0 N 140.0 E 1004 25 JMA warnings
07 NOV 11 0000 20.2 N 140.6 E 1004 30
07 NOV 11 0600 20.0 N 139.8 E 1002 30
07 NOV 11 1200 20.3 N 139.7 E 1002 25 30 JMA: 20.5N/140.5E
07 NOV 11 1800 21.1 N 139.8 E 1000 30 30 JMA: 20.6N/140.6E
07 NOV 12 0000 22.2 N 141.4 E 998 35 35 JMA: 22.2N/142.3E
07 NOV 12 0600 23.1 N 142.8 E 996 35 35 JMA: 23.1N/143.4E
07 NOV 12 1200 23.6 N 144.5 E 996 35 35
07 NOV 12 1800 24.2 N 146.2 E 998 30 35 JMA: 23.7N/146.2E
07 NOV 13 0000 24.0 N 147.0 E 1000 30
Note: JMA listed a tropical depression near 18N/143E at 10/0000 UTC, but
no reference was made to the system on the next two warning cycles.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: HAGIBIS Cyclone Number: 23W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: LANDO JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0724
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
07 NOV 18 0600 8.0 N 128.0 E 1004 25 JMA bulletin
07 NOV 18 1200 8.0 N 129.0 E 1004 25
07 NOV 18 1800 9.2 N 127.1 E 1002 30 25 JMA: 8.0N/128.0E
07 NOV 19 0000 9.5 N 126.5 E 1004 30 25 Just off NE Mindanao
07 NOV 19 0600 10.5 N 125.2 E 997 30 35 PAGASA: 10.2N/124.4E
07 NOV 19 1200 10.6 N 123.5 E 997 30 35 10-min MSW from PAGASA
07 NOV 19 1800 10.4 N 122.2 E 997 35 35 Over southern Panay I.
07 NOV 20 0000 9.1 N 120.8 E 997 35 35 PAGASA: 10.5N/121.4E
07 NOV 20 0600 9.5 N 119.4 E 997 35 35 PAGASA: 10.0N/119.8E
07 NOV 20 1200 9.5 N 118.9 E 997 35 35 Near central Palawan I.
07 NOV 20 1800 9.6 N 117.6 E 1000 40 35 CP & 10-min MSW frm JMA
07 NOV 21 0000 9.5 N 116.1 E 1000 50 35 In South China Sea
07 NOV 21 0600 9.6 N 115.0 E 990 50 50
07 NOV 21 1200 9.6 N 113.9 E 985 60 55
07 NOV 21 1800 9.8 N 113.0 E 980 65 55
07 NOV 22 0000 10.4 N 113.1 E 975 70 65 Relocation
07 NOV 22 0600 10.7 N 112.3 E 970 75 70 JMA: 10.4N/112.5E
07 NOV 22 1200 10.9 N 111.9 E 970 80 70
07 NOV 22 1800 11.2 N 111.3 E 970 85 70
07 NOV 23 0000 11.5 N 111.0 E 970 75 70
07 NOV 23 0600 11.7 N 110.9 E 975 75 65
07 NOV 23 1200 11.9 N 111.2 E 975 70 65 JMA: 11.5N/110.5E
07 NOV 23 1800 12.0 N 110.5 E 980 60 60 JMA: 11.3N/110.4E
07 NOV 24 0000 11.7 N 111.0 E 985 55 55
07 NOV 24 0600 12.0 N 111.4 E 985 55 55 JMA: 11.6N/111.6E
07 NOV 24 1200 12.0 N 111.9 E 990 50 50 JMA: 11.6N/111.8E
07 NOV 24 1800 12.0 N 112.2 E 990 40 50
07 NOV 25 0000 11.9 N 112.9 E 990 35 50 See Note
07 NOV 25 0600 11.6 N 113.3 E 990 35 50
07 NOV 25 1200 11.5 N 113.7 E 990 40 50
07 NOV 25 1800 11.5 N 114.0 E 990 35 50
07 NOV 26 0000 11.3 N 114.6 E 992 30 50 JMA: 11.1N/115.0E
07 NOV 26 0600 11.6 N 115.5 E 994 30 45
07 NOV 26 1200 11.9 N 116.8 E 994 30 45 JMA: 11.4N/116.4E
07 NOV 26 1800 11.8 N 118.0 E 994 25 45 JMA: 11.5N/117.7E
07 NOV 27 0000 11.9 N 119.2 E 994 25 45 Near Calamian group
07 NOV 27 0600 12.7 N 120.8 E 994 35 JMA warnings
07 NOV 27 1200 13.6 N 123.0 E 996 35 Near Naga city, Luzon
07 NOV 27 1800 14.7 N 124.5 E 996 35 In Philippine Sea
07 NOV 28 0000 15.1 N 125.0 E 998 35
07 NOV 28 0600 15.0 N 126.0 E 1002 30
Note: A very unusual situation, with JMA's 10-min avg MSW being so very
much higher than JTWC's 1-min avg MSW. According to Dr. Karl Hoarau,
the satellite imagery yielded a Data-T number of 2.5, but the CI was
3.0, or 45 kts (1-min avg). In Karl's opinion, JMA was holding the
CI-number too high.
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Storm Name: MITAG Cyclone Number: 24W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: MINA JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0723
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
07 NOV 20 0000 11.4 N 139.3 E 1004 30 JMA warning
07 NOV 20 0600 11.6 N 137.4 E 1002 30 30 JMA: 12.6N/137.2E
07 NOV 20 1200 12.6 N 137.1 E 1000 30 35 JMA: 13.0N/136.5E
07 NOV 20 1800 13.6 N 135.1 E 1000 35 35
07 NOV 21 0000 13.8 N 133.8 E 996 40 40
07 NOV 21 0600 14.2 N 132.3 E 992 45 45
07 NOV 21 1200 14.2 N 131.7 E 985 55 55
07 NOV 21 1800 14.4 N 130.8 E 975 65 60
07 NOV 22 0000 14.6 N 129.5 E 975 70 65
07 NOV 22 0600 14.5 N 128.6 E 960 80 75
07 NOV 22 1200 14.1 N 127.7 E 955 85 80
07 NOV 22 1800 14.0 N 126.9 E 955 90 80
07 NOV 23 0000 13.6 N 126.7 E 955 90 80
07 NOV 23 0600 13.6 N 126.5 E 960 95 75
07 NOV 23 1200 13.9 N 126.6 E 960 95 75
07 NOV 23 1800 14.2 N 126.3 E 960 95 75
07 NOV 24 0000 14.4 N 125.9 E 960 95 75
07 NOV 24 0600 14.9 N 125.8 E 960 85 75 JMA: 14.5N/125.8E
07 NOV 24 1200 15.1 N 125.9 E 960 85 75 JMA: 14.8N/125.3E
07 NOV 24 1800 15.2 N 125.1 E 965 85 70
07 NOV 25 0000 15.5 N 124.3 E 965 85 70 JMA: 15.1N/124.7E
07 NOV 25 0600 16.5 N 123.9 E 965 80 70 JMA: 15.9N/124.0E
07 NOV 25 1200 17.1 N 123.3 E 965 75 70 JMA: 16.3N/123.4E
07 NOV 25 1800 17.9 N 122.1 E 965 75 70 JMA: 17.6N/122.5E
07 NOV 26 0000 18.6 N 121.0 E 975 75 65 On northern Luzon coast
07 NOV 26 0600 19.3 N 120.5 E 980 65 60 In Luzon Strait
07 NOV 26 1200 20.3 N 120.6 E 980 65 60
07 NOV 26 1800 21.1 N 121.0 E 980 55 60 JMA: 20.6N/121.1E
07 NOV 27 0000 20.8 N 121.5 E 985 45 55 JMA: 21.5N/122.0E
07 NOV 27 0600 19.8 N 122.9 E 992 40 45 JMA: 21.2N/122.7E
07 NOV 27 1200 20.0 N 124.3 E 994 35 40
07 NOV 27 1800 20.5 N 125.7 E 1000 30 30
Note: The JTWC position (in the tabulated track) at 25/1800 UTC places
the center of Mitag/Mina on the extreme northeastern Luzon coast
north-northeast of Tuguegarao, whereas the concurrent JMA coordinates
place the center about 30 nm southeast of this position and east of
the coastline.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 25W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: None
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
07 NOV 26 0600 15.8 N 132.5 E 25
07 NOV 26 1200 16.2 N 131.6 E 25
07 NOV 26 1800 17.0 N 130.5 E 25
07 NOV 27 0000 17.9 N 130.1 E 25
07 NOV 27 0600 21.3 N 130.1 E 25
07 NOV 27 1200 22.5 N 130.8 E 25
07 NOV 27 1800 24.7 N 131.6 E 25
Note: Normally I don't include tracks for tropical depressions unless
there is evidence of 30-kt winds (1-min avg). However, for TD-25W,
SAB rendered Dvorak ratings of T2.0/2.0 late on the 26th and early
on the 27th, so the system possibly produced 30-kt winds at some point.
JMA did not reference this system in their High Seas bulletins, even as
a low-pressure area. According to Dr. Karl Hoarau, microwave imagery
clearly indicated the presence of a LLCC.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 26W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: None
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
07 NOV 28 0300 19.5 N 136.6 E 25 SAB satellite bulletin
07 NOV 28 0600 22.8 N 136.8 E 25 JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 28 1200 24.6 N 137.7 E 30 JTWC wrng/See Note
07 NOV 28 1800 26.7 N 138.4 E 35
07 NOV 29 0000 28.7 N 139.8 E 35 JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 29 0600 29.6 N 141.5 E 35
07 NOV 29 1200 30.5 N 145.6 E 30 JTWC & SAB sat bulletin
Note: JTWC issued only two warnings on this system, at 28/1200 and 1800
UTC, and their highest MSW was only 25 kts. Very unusual, given that
on the first warning the translational speed was 29 kts! Karl Hoarau
estimates that the MSW reached 35 kts at 28/1800 UTC, and I have followed
Karl here. Indeed, the Dvorak estimates from JTWC's own satellite
analyst were at T2.5/2.5 at 28/1130, 1730 and 2330 UTC, and SAB's
Dvorak rating reached T3.0/3.0 at 28/1430 UTC. There was ample evidence
from satellite imagery, plus the rapid forward motion, to believe that
this system was a tropical storm. JMA never elevated the system above
weak tropical depression status.
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may
have been gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other
bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which
is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
ological Centre for the basin.
The reported maximum sustained winds are based on a 1-minute
averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic
observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR (06B) 10 - 16 Nov
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: SIDR Cyclone Number: 06B Basin: NIO
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
07 NOV 10 1800 10.0 N 92.7 E 25 JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 11 0000 10.1 N 92.4 E 30
07 NOV 11 0600 10.0 N 92.3 E 35 First JTWC warning
07 NOV 11 1200 10.1 N 91.9 E 35 JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 11 1800 10.4 N 91.4 E 45
07 NOV 12 0000 10.2 N 90.8 E 50 JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 12 0600 10.8 N 90.4 E 55 Officially named 'Sidr'
07 NOV 12 1200 11.0 N 90.3 E 75 JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 12 1800 11.6 N 90.0 E 105
07 NOV 13 0000 12.0 N 89.9 E 110 JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 13 0600 12.5 N 89.8 E 115
07 NOV 13 1200 13.0 N 89.5 E 115 IMD & JTWC position
07 NOV 13 1800 13.7 N 89.5 E 115
07 NOV 14 0000 14.3 N 89.6 E 115
07 NOV 14 0600 15.0 N 89.4 E 120
07 NOV 14 1200 15.7 N 89.3 E 130
07 NOV 14 1800 16.6 N 89.3 E 130
07 NOV 15 0000 17.8 N 89.2 E 130
07 NOV 15 0600 19.3 N 89.3 E 135 Karl Hoarau: 140 kts
07 NOV 15 1200 20.9 N 89.5 E 130
07 NOV 15 1800 22.8 N 90.3 E 105 Inland
07 NOV 16 0000 25.0 N 91.9 E 60
07 NOV 16 0300 25.5 N 92.2 E 35 IMD: 24.5N/91.5E
Note: Following is some information and analysis from Dr. Karl Hoarau.
Date/Time IMD's MSW JTWC's MSW Karl's MSW
--------------------------------------------------------------
Nov 11/1200 UTC 30 kts 35 kts 40 kts
/1800 UTC 30 kts 45 kts 45 kts
Nov 12/0000 UTC 35 kts 65 kts * 55 kts
/0600 UTC 40 kts 70 kts * 70 kts
/1200 UTC 55 kts 75 kts 95 kts
/1800 UTC 65 kts 105 kts 120 kts
Nov 13/0000 UTC 90 kts 110 kts 125 kts
* - JTWC's MSW for these times were 50 and 55 kts, respectively. In his
e-mail, Karl noted this, but does not specify where he obtained the
values of 65 and 70 kts for those times. Possibly they came from
the JMV file, which is a working "best track".
Also, Karl states that he estimates that Sidr reached a peak of 140 kts
around 0500-0700 UTC on 15 November. NOAA-18 data at 0655 UTC showed a
warm pinhole eye of +9.5 C (1-km resolution) in a White ring (-70 to
-75 C). The MET and PT did agree with the DT.
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
issued by Meteo France's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on Reunion
Island (MFR), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin. The 1-minute average
maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from
JTWC were compared with those from MFR and annotations made in the
Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm
or more.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Severe Tropical Storm BONGWE (MFR-03 / 04S) 17 - 24 Nov
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: BONGWE Cyclone Number: 04S Basin: SWI
MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 03
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
07 NOV 17 2100 5.9 S 75.0 E 30 SAB satellite bulletin
07 NOV 18 0300 7.1 S 75.0 E 35 "
07 NOV 18 0600 7.9 S 76.5 E 35 First JTWC warning
07 NOV 18 1200 8.3 S 75.5 E 999 25 Locally 30 kts
07 NOV 18 1800 8.8 S 76.3 E 997 45 30
07 NOV 19 0000 9.7 S 76.4 E 996 30
07 NOV 19 0600 9.9 S 77.2 E 994 55 40
07 NOV 19 1200 10.3 S 77.1 E 987 50
07 NOV 19 1800 11.0 S 76.6 E 987 65 50 JTWC: 10.6S/76.7E
07 NOV 20 0000 10.9 S 75.9 E 980 55
07 NOV 20 0600 11.6 S 75.5 E 980 55 55
07 NOV 20 1200 11.6 S 74.0 E 985 50
07 NOV 20 1800 11.9 S 73.2 E 988 55 45 JTWC: 12.5S/73.0E
07 NOV 21 0000 13.1 S 72.3 E 992 40
07 NOV 21 0600 12.9 S 71.9 E 990 45 40 JTWC: 12.7S/71.5E
07 NOV 21 1200 13.5 S 71.1 E 987 45
07 NOV 21 1800 13.7 S 70.2 E 987 50 45
07 NOV 22 0000 13.9 S 69.8 E 984 50
07 NOV 22 0600 14.0 S 70.0 E 976 55 60 Relocation
07 NOV 22 1200 14.0 S 69.8 E 980 55
07 NOV 22 1800 13.8 S 69.7 E 980 55 55
07 NOV 23 0000 13.8 S 69.3 E 988 45
07 NOV 23 0600 13.7 S 68.8 E 991 45 40
07 NOV 23 1200 13.1 S 68.0 E 995 35
07 NOV 23 1800 13.0 S 67.3 E 997 30 30 Locally 35 kts S semi
07 NOV 24 0000 13.0 S 66.7 E 1000 25 Locally 30 kts S semi
07 NOV 24 0600 12.7 S 66.2 E 1000 25 "
07 NOV 24 1200 12.9 S 65.5 E 1000 25 "
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - Longitude 90E to 135E
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Perth, Western
Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory. The 1-minute average
maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates
from JTWC were compared with those from the Australian centres and
annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general
amounted to 40-50 nm or more.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Severe Tropical Storm LEE-ARIEL (03S / MFR-02) 13 - 22 Nov
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: LEE-ARIEL Cyclone Number: 03S Basin: AUW/SWI
(First name assigned by BoM Perth - MFR Tropical Disburbance Number: 02)
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
07 NOV 13 0600 5.6 S 92.8 E 1002 20
07 NOV 13 1200 5.9 S 92.2 E 1002 20
07 NOV 13 1800 6.4 S 91.6 E 1000 25
07 NOV 14 0000 7.8 S 92.2 E 996 30 Relocated
07 NOV 14 0600 8.5 S 92.0 E 996 30
07 NOV 14 1200 9.1 S 91.4 E 992 35
07 NOV 14 1800 9.2 S 91.2 E 992 35 35
07 NOV 15 0000 10.1 S 90.5 E 984 50
07 NOV 15 0600 10.9 S 90.1 E 984 55 50
07 NOV 15 1200 11.5 S 89.6 E 984 50 MFR warnings
07 NOV 15 1800 11.6 S 88.9 E 984 65 50 JTWC: 12.3S/89.2E
07 NOV 16 0000 11.7 S 88.8 E 984 50
07 NOV 16 0600 11.6 S 88.4 E 980 65 50
07 NOV 16 1200 11.6 S 87.8 E 984 50
07 NOV 16 1800 11.8 S 87.3 E 986 55 50
07 NOV 17 0000 11.5 S 87.3 E 990 45
07 NOV 17 0600 11.6 S 87.5 E 997 45 30
07 NOV 17 1200 11.8 S 87.0 E 998 30
07 NOV 17 1800 11.6 S 86.8 E 999 35 30
07 NOV 18 0000 11.7 S 86.7 E 998 30
07 NOV 18 0600 12.3 S 86.7 E 998 35 30
07 NOV 18 1200 12.8 S 87.4 E 998 30
07 NOV 18 1800 12.5 S 87.8 E 1000 35 25 Locally 30 kts S semi
07 NOV 19 0000 14.0 S 88.1 E 30 JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 19 0600 14.2 S 89.4 E 30
07 NOV 19 1200 14.5 S 89.2 E 30 SAB bulletin
07 NOV 19 1800 14.5 S 89.3 E 30 JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 20 0000 14.9 S 89.9 E 30
07 NOV 20 0600 15.4 S 90.1 E 25
07 NOV 20 1200 13.9 S 90.2 E 25
07 NOV 20 1800 13.6 S 90.3 E 25
07 NOV 21 0000 13.4 S 91.6 E 20
07 NOV 21 0600 12.8 S 91.4 E 20
07 NOV 21 1200 12.5 S 90.8 E 25
07 NOV 21 1800 12.7 S 91.4 E 25
07 NOV 22 0000 12.7 S 91.2 E 20
07 NOV 22 0600 12.4 S 92.1 E 20
07 NOV 22 1200 12.5 S 92.7 E 20
Note: Both MFR and JTWC issued their final warnings on Lee-Ariel at
18/1800 UTC, but with quite different positions and headings. MFR's
final position is noted above, and the system was given as moving ENE
at 4 kts. JTWC's 1800 UTC position was at 13.4S/87.8E, moving SE at
5 kts. I continued to track the remnants of Lee-Ariel via JTWC's
satellite fix bulletins for several days because deep convection
continued to flare up from time to time and there was a slight chance
that regeneration could occur. The system moved back into BoM Perth's
AOR, and the STWO on 22 November indicated a moderate chance of
regeneration, but this was reduced to 'low' the next day. The remnant
LOW remained quasi-stationary around 11S/90E through the 25th as it
slowly filled.
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - Longitude 135E to 160E
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Darwin, Northern
Territory; Brisbane, Queensland; and Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from
warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S.
Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center
position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from the
Australian centres and annotations made in the Remarks column when the
differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Severe Tropical Cyclone GUBA (02P) 12 - 19 Nov
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: GUBA Cyclone Number: 02P Basin: AUE
(Name assigned from Port Moresby, PNG, list of names)
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
07 NOV 12 0000 6.5 S 152.1 E 25 JTWC satellite bulletin
07 NOV 12 0600 7.1 S 151.8 E 25 "
07 NOV 12 1200 7.3 S 150.7 E 25 "
07 NOV 12 1800 9.0 S 150.3 E 30 JTWC & SAB sat buls
07 NOV 13 0000 10.5 S 149.8 E 1000 30 30 First Brisbane warning
07 NOV 13 0600 11.0 S 149.2 E 999 30 30
07 NOV 13 1200 11.2 S 148.2 E 999 35 30
07 NOV 13 1800 11.2 S 147.2 E 998 30
07 NOV 14 0000 11.2 S 147.1 E 997 35 30
07 NOV 14 0600 10.8 S 146.5 E 995 35 Upgraded at 0300Z
07 NOV 14 1200 10.8 S 146.1 E 993 35 35
07 NOV 14 1800 10.5 S 146.0 E 995 35
07 NOV 15 0000 10.4 S 145.8 E 995 35 35
07 NOV 15 0600 10.5 S 146.1 E 990 40
07 NOV 15 1200 10.8 S 146.0 E 990 45 40
07 NOV 15 1800 10.8 S 146.2 E 990 40
07 NOV 16 0000 11.2 S 146.7 E 980 50 55
07 NOV 16 0600 11.4 S 146.7 E 970 65
07 NOV 16 1200 11.5 S 146.9 E 970 75 75
07 NOV 16 1800 11.6 S 146.9 E 970 75
07 NOV 17 0000 11.2 S 147.4 E 970 55 75
07 NOV 17 0600 11.4 S 147.5 E 970 75
07 NOV 17 1200 11.9 S 147.5 E 975 50 60
07 NOV 17 1800 12.0 S 147.1 E 985 50
07 NOV 18 0000 12.2 S 146.9 E 985 45 50
07 NOV 18 0600 12.5 S 146.4 E 990 40
07 NOV 18 1200 12.8 S 146.2 E 995 40 35
07 NOV 18 1800 12.6 S 145.8 E 995 35
07 NOV 18 2100 12.2 S 144.7 E 987 45
07 NOV 19 0500 11.8 S 144.7 E 990 35 40
07 NOV 19 1200 10.2 S 144.8 E 990 40
07 NOV 19 1800 9.9 S 145.0 E 995 35
07 NOV 19 2100 9.8 S 145.1 E 997 30
Note: The weak remnants of TC Guba continued to linger south of the Gulf
of Guinea for another day or so before dissipating. The final position
available to the author was a SAB satellite fix bulletin at 20/0830 UTC
which placed the center near 10.1S/144.3E.
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SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji, and
Wellington, New Zealand. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor,
Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with
those from the Southern Hemisphere centres and annotations made in the
Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm
or more.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Depression (03F) 24 Nov - 02 Dec
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Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: SPA
Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 03F
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
07 NOV 24 1800 16.6 S 165.5 E 1004 25
07 NOV 24 2100 16.3 S 165.0 E 1002 25
07 NOV 25 0600 17.0 S 165.5 E 1002 25
07 NOV 25 1800 18.5 S 168.5 E 1000 30 Periph. gales forecast
07 NOV 26 0000 18.5 S 168.5 E 1000 30 Periph. gales SE quad
07 NOV 26 0600 18.2 S 168.5 E 1001 25
07 NOV 26 1800 18.0 S 170.8 E 1001 25
07 NOV 26 2100 18.2 S 171.5 E 1002 25
07 NOV 27 0600 17.7 S 172.1 E 1002 25 Relocation
07 NOV 27 1800 17.1 S 174.5 E 1002 25
07 NOV 27 2100 16.3 S 174.8 E 1002 25
07 NOV 28 0600 15.7 S 178.0 E 1002 25
07 NOV 28 2100 15.0 S 179.5 E 1005 20
07 NOV 29 0600 15.0 S 179.5 E 1005 20
07 NOV 29 1800 17.0 S 173.0 W 1005 20 Major relocation
07 NOV 30 0600 15.0 S 169.0 W 1005 25
07 NOV 30 1800 17.0 S 168.0 W 1004 25
07 NOV 30 2100 16.4 S 166.5 W 1004 25
07 DEC 01 0600 17.1 S 164.2 W 1004 25
07 DEC 01 0800 17.6 S 164.4 W 1004 25
07 DEC 01 1800 19.7 S 161.2 W 1004 25
07 DEC 01 2100 19.5 S 161.5 W 999 25
07 DEC 02 0600 22.4 S 157.6 W 1000 25
07 DEC 02 1800 24.0 S 156.0 W 1008 25
07 DEC 02 2100 21.5 S 153.0 W 1008 25
Note: This system was a fairly long-lived and, most of the time, rather
nebulous depression which drifted across much of the South Pacific.
There were at least two significant relocations, which suggest that the
center was very difficult to follow, and it may well be that more than
one LLCC was identified as TD-03 by RSMC Nadi. The depression went
through two periods when it became more organized: on 24-25 November
when west of Fiji, and again around 1-2 December when well east of the
Dateline.
Dvorak ratings from CPHC and Brisbane reached T2.0/2.0 on the 24th and
25th, but JTWC's peak for this phase was T1.5/1.5. The system became
weaker and drifted eastward for the next few days, with possibly a new
center forming on 29 November. JTWC's Dvorak rating reached T2.5/2.5
at 1730 UTC on 1 December, and SAB had reached T2.5/2.5 by 01/0822 UTC
and peaked at T3.0/3.0 at 2022 UTC that same day. So, based on a 1-min
avg MSW, this system was possibly a minimal tropical storm on the 1st
and 2nd of December. No warnings were issued by JTWC for TD-03F.
*************************************************************************
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!!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!!
To repeat the caveat which is included in the Author's Note
at the end of the cyclone summaries--the tropical cyclone tracks
I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/advisories/
advices/bulletins which are issued by the various tropical cyclone
warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should
be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during
post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and
analysts at the several warning centers.
For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical
cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of
the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their
Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best
tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the
North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere:
https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php>
SPECIAL NOTE: Back issues of the global tropical cyclone summaries
and monthly cyclone track files can be obtained at the following
websites:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
http://mpittweather.com>
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>
PREPARED BY:
Gary Padgett [email protected]
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY:
Michael V. Padua [email protected]
[email protected]
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
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Document: trak0711.htm
Updated: 15th January 2008 |
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