[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks October 2006
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks October 2006 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - OCTOBER 2006
!!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!!
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NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates, central pressure and 1-minute average
maximum sustained wind values were obtained from the operational
forecast/advisories issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National
Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, for locations east of longitude
140W, and from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu,
Hawaii, for locations west of longitude 140W. A 1-minute averaging
period is the standard used by all U. S. civilian and military
warning services for tropical cyclone warnings.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Storm NORMAN (15E) 09 - 15 Oct
Tropical Storm OLIVIA (16E) 09 - 12 Oct
Tropical Depression (04C) 13 - 14 Oct
Hurricane PAUL (17E) 21 - 26 Oct
Tropical Depression (18E) 26 - 28 Oct
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Storm Name: NORMAN Cyclone Number: 15E Basin: NEP
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 OCT 09 0000 14.2 N 117.1 W 1006 30
06 OCT 09 0600 14.9 N 117.5 W 1006 30
06 OCT 09 1200 15.5 N 117.6 W 1002 40
06 OCT 09 1800 15.9 N 117.9 W 1002 40
06 OCT 10 0000 16.6 N 117.8 W 1000 45
06 OCT 10 0600 16.4 N 117.8 W 1000 45
06 OCT 10 1200 16.8 N 117.9 W 1002 40
06 OCT 10 1800 16.5 N 117.9 W 1006 30
06 OCT 11 0000 16.7 N 117.3 W 1008 25
06 OCT 11 0300 16.8 N 117.1 W 1008 25 Final advisory
06 OCT 11 1200 17.0 N 117.0 W 1008 20 See Note
06 OCT 11 1800 18.0 N 115.0 W 1008 20
06 OCT 12 0000 17.0 N 115.0 W 1008 20
06 OCT 12 0600 17.0 N 115.0 W 1008 20
06 OCT 13 0000 16.0 N 113.0 W 1007 20
06 OCT 13 0600 15.0 N 111.0 W 1007 20
06 OCT 13 1800 15.0 N 111.0 W 1007 20
06 OCT 14 0000 15.0 N 110.0 W 1005 20
06 OCT 14 0600 15.0 N 108.0 W 1005 20 Possible new LOW cntr
06 OCT 14 1200 17.0 N 108.0 W 1005 20
06 OCT 14 1800 17.0 N 108.0 W 1005 20
06 OCT 15 0000 17.0 N 105.0 W 1003 25
06 OCT 15 0600 17.9 N 105.2 W 1001 30 Advisories reinitiated
06 OCT 15 1200 18.8 N 104.8 W 1001 30
06 OCT 15 1800 19.1 N 104.7 W 1000 30
06 OCT 15 2100 19.2 N 104.7 W 1003 30
Note: From 11/1200 to 15/0000 UTC, inclusive, the positions in the track
above were obtained from the regular TPC/NHC Tropical Weather Discussions
for the Eastern North Pacific. Some of the discussions gave the SLP of
Norman's remnant LOW; for those times which did not I retained the
previously referenced pressure. I arbitrarily chose 20 kts for the MSW
during this period, except that I upped it to 25 kts at 15/0000 UTC just
prior to advisories being reinitiated. A few of the discussions did not
give any coordinates for Norman's remnant LOW; hence, there are some
gaps in the times.
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Storm Name: OLIVIA Cyclone Number: 16E Basin: NEP
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 OCT 09 1800 12.7 N 127.8 W 1005 30
06 OCT 10 0000 13.1 N 127.7 W 1005 30
06 OCT 10 0600 13.8 N 127.7 W 1005 30
06 OCT 10 1200 14.4 N 127.6 W 1000 40
06 OCT 10 1800 15.5 N 126.4 W 1000 40
06 OCT 11 0000 16.2 N 125.7 W 1000 40
06 OCT 11 0600 16.7 N 125.1 W 1005 30
06 OCT 11 1200 16.9 N 124.7 W 1005 30
06 OCT 11 1800 17.0 N 124.0 W 1007 25
06 OCT 12 0000 17.3 N 123.1 W 1008 25
06 OCT 12 0600 17.5 N 122.3 W 1008 25
06 OCT 12 1200 17.6 N 121.5 W 1008 25
06 OCT 12 1800 17.6 N 120.8 W 1008 25
06 OCT 12 2100 17.5 N 120.4 W 1008 25
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Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 04C Basin: NEP
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 OCT 13 1800 13.7 N 166.3 W 1007 30
06 OCT 14 0000 14.3 N 165.6 W 1007 30
06 OCT 14 0600 13.9 N 165.8 W 1007 30
06 OCT 14 1200 13.0 N 165.5 W 1007 25
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Storm Name: PAUL Cyclone Number: 17E Basin: NEP
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 OCT 21 0600 15.5 N 105.4 W 1004 30
06 OCT 21 1200 15.9 N 106.8 W 1001 35
06 OCT 21 1800 16.0 N 107.1 W 1000 45
06 OCT 22 0000 15.9 N 107.7 W 1000 45
06 OCT 22 0600 15.7 N 108.6 W 1000 45
06 OCT 22 1200 15.9 N 108.8 W 1000 45
06 OCT 22 1800 15.8 N 110.1 W 994 55
06 OCT 23 0000 16.0 N 110.9 W 979 75
06 OCT 23 0600 16.0 N 111.3 W 976 80
06 OCT 23 1200 16.3 N 111.4 W 973 85
06 OCT 23 1800 16.7 N 111.6 W 970 90 95 kts/965 mb at 1500Z
06 OCT 24 0000 17.3 N 111.7 W 979 80
06 OCT 24 0600 18.1 N 111.5 W 982 70
06 OCT 24 1200 18.6 N 112.0 W 982 70
06 OCT 24 1800 19.8 N 111.5 W 992 55 Downgraded at 1500Z
06 OCT 25 0000 20.6 N 110.9 W 1003 40
06 OCT 25 0600 21.5 N 110.2 W 1003 40
06 OCT 25 1200 22.7 N 109.2 W 1001 40
06 OCT 25 1800 23.8 N 108.1 W 1001 40
06 OCT 26 0000 24.5 N 108.2 W 1005 30 Downgraded at 2300Z
06 OCT 26 0600 25.0 N 108.0 W 1008 25
06 OCT 26 0900 25.2 N 107.8 W 1008 25 Cntr inland in Mexico
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Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 18E Basin: NEP
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 OCT 26 1200 16.7 N 103.9 W 1008 30
06 OCT 26 1800 16.9 N 104.3 W 1008 30
06 OCT 27 0000 16.9 N 105.2 W 1007 30
06 OCT 27 0600 16.7 N 106.0 W 1007 25
06 OCT 27 1200 16.0 N 105.0 W 1008 25
06 OCT 27 1800 15.7 N 105.5 W 1009 25
06 OCT 28 0000 15.8 N 105.8 W 1010 25
06 OCT 28 0300 15.8 N 106.1 W 1010 25
*************************************************************************
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NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained
from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which
is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
ological Centre for the basin. In a few instances, information from
warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized.
The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com-
pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column
when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings
issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines'
Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA). A special thanks to Michael for his efforts.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Storm BEBINCA (19W / 0616 / NENENG) 28 Sep - 06 Oct
Tropical Storm RUMBIA (20W / 0617) 02 - 06 Oct
Typhoon SOULIK (21W / 0618) 08 - 17 Oct
Super Typhoon CIMARON (22W / 0619 / PAENG) 26 Oct - 06 Nov
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Storm Name: BEBINCA Cyclone Number: 19W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: NENENG JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0616
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 SEP 28 1200 13.0 N 143.0 E 1004 25 JMA bulletins
06 SEP 28 1800 12.0 N 141.0 E 1002 25
06 SEP 29 0000 13.0 N 141.0 E 1002 25
06 SEP 29 0600 13.0 N 140.0 E 1002 25
06 SEP 29 1200 13.0 N 139.0 E 1004 25
06 SEP 29 1800 12.0 N 140.0 E 1000 25
06 SEP 30 0000 12.0 N 140.0 E 1000 25
06 SEP 30 0600 13.0 N 140.0 E 1000 25
06 SEP 30 1200 13.0 N 138.0 E 1000 25
06 SEP 30 1800 14.0 N 139.0 E 1000 25
06 OCT 01 0000 14.0 N 136.0 E 1000 25
06 OCT 01 0600 14.0 N 136.0 E 998 25
06 OCT 01 1200 15.0 N 132.5 E 998 30 25 JMA: 14.0N/133.0E
06 OCT 01 1800 15.1 N 130.4 E 998 30 30 JMA: 14.7N/130.6E
06 OCT 02 0000 14.4 N 131.1 E 996 30 30 JMA: 15.2N/130.2E
06 OCT 02 0600 14.4 N 131.0 E 994 30 30 JMA: 15.3N/130.0E
06 OCT 02 1200 14.6 N 130.9 E 994 30 30 JMA: 15.0N/130.0E
06 OCT 02 1800 14.2 N 129.8 E 994 35 30 JMA: 14.5N/131.0E
06 OCT 03 0000 14.6 N 130.9 E 992 35 35
06 OCT 03 0600 15.2 N 130.5 E 992 35 35 JMA: 15.9N/130.6E
06 OCT 03 1200 16.4 N 130.3 E 992 35 35 JMA: 17.2N/131.2E
06 OCT 03 1800 17.8 N 130.1 E 990 35 40 JMA: 18.3N/131.0E
06 OCT 04 0000 18.3 N 130.6 E 990 45 40 JMA: 19.0N/131.0E
06 OCT 04 0600 18.3 N 132.2 E 990 40 40 JMA: 19.4N/131.0E
06 OCT 04 1200 19.6 N 133.8 E 990 35 40 JMA: 20.3N/131.2E
06 OCT 04 1800 20.8 N 134.5 E 990 30 40 JMA: 21.7N/131.9E
06 OCT 05 0000 25.1 N 133.6 E 990 45 40 JMA: 24.5N/134.5E
06 OCT 05 0600 25.8 N 134.6 E 990 45 40
06 OCT 05 1200 26.5 N 136.1 E 990 45 40
06 OCT 05 1800 26.5 N 136.8 E 990 35 40 JMA: 27.5N/138.0E
06 OCT 06 0000 28.8 N 138.2 E 986 25 25
Note: At 06/0000 UTC a developing extratropical LOW was located at
32.0N/139.0E, or less than 200 nm north of the weakening Bebinca. The
JMA bulletin at 06/0600 UTC did not mention the remnants of the former
tropical storm, so it is very likely Bebinca was absorbed into the
extratropical system. The highest 10-min avg MSW estimated by PAGASA
during the time Tropical Storm Neneng was within that agency's AOR was
45 kts from 02/0000 through 04/0000 UTC.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: RUMBIA Cyclone Number: 20W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0617
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 OCT 02 1800 18.5 N 152.5 E 998 30 JMA warnings
06 OCT 03 0000 19.4 N 154.5 E 998 30
06 OCT 03 0600 20.0 N 153.8 E 994 30
06 OCT 03 1200 20.6 N 154.0 E 992 35
06 OCT 03 1800 21.3 N 153.6 E 990 40
06 OCT 04 0000 21.9 N 153.3 E 990 45
06 OCT 04 0600 21.9 N 152.5 E 985 45
06 OCT 04 1200 22.0 N 152.2 E 985 45
06 OCT 04 1800 22.2 N 152.1 E 985 30 45
06 OCT 05 0000 22.4 N 151.8 E 985 30 45
06 OCT 05 0600 23.2 N 152.4 E 985 30 45 JTWC: 23.1N/151.5E
06 OCT 05 1200 23.6 N 152.0 E 985 35 45
06 OCT 05 1800 24.6 N 151.4 E 985 35 45
06 OCT 06 0000 26.7 N 151.8 E 990 25 40
06 OCT 06 0600 30.0 N 151.0 E 994 25
Note: All the center coordinates in the above table for this cyclone
were taken from JMA's warnings. There were numerous ship reports and
QuikScat winds in the 40-45 kt range within the circulation of Rumbia,
so the intensity estimates of JMA (10-min avg MSW column) should be
considered more representative of the observed intensity.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: SOULIK Cyclone Number: 21W Basin: NEP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0618
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 OCT 08 1200 13.0 N 160.0 E 1004 25 JMA bulletins
06 OCT 08 1800 14.0 N 158.0 E 1004 25
06 OCT 09 0000 14.3 N 157.8 E 1002 30 30 JMA: 14.9N/157.5E
06 OCT 09 0600 15.5 N 156.9 E 1002 30 30 JMA: 15.7N/156.4E
06 OCT 09 1200 16.3 N 155.7 E 1002 35 30
06 OCT 09 1800 17.3 N 154.4 E 1000 40 35
06 OCT 10 0000 17.9 N 153.3 E 1000 40 35
06 OCT 10 0600 18.5 N 152.3 E 1000 45 35
06 OCT 10 1200 19.0 N 150.6 E 994 55 40
06 OCT 10 1800 19.4 N 149.0 E 985 55 50
06 OCT 11 0000 20.2 N 146.6 E 985 55 50
06 OCT 11 0600 20.5 N 144.9 E 980 60 55
06 OCT 11 1200 20.9 N 143.6 E 975 60 60
06 OCT 11 1800 21.2 N 142.7 E 975 60 60
06 OCT 12 0000 21.8 N 141.7 E 975 60 60
06 OCT 12 0600 22.8 N 141.5 E 975 60 60
06 OCT 12 1200 23.4 N 141.1 E 970 65 65
06 OCT 12 1800 23.5 N 140.7 E 970 70 65
06 OCT 13 0000 23.8 N 140.5 E 970 75 65
06 OCT 13 0600 23.8 N 141.0 E 960 90 70
06 OCT 13 1200 23.9 N 141.0 E 960 90 70
06 OCT 13 1800 24.1 N 141.0 E 960 90 70
06 OCT 14 0000 24.4 N 141.1 E 960 90 70
06 OCT 14 0600 24.8 N 140.9 E 955 90 75 Just west of Iwo Jima
06 OCT 14 1200 25.5 N 141.0 E 960 80 75
06 OCT 14 1800 26.4 N 141.1 E 960 75 75
06 OCT 15 0000 27.6 N 141.6 E 965 75 70
06 OCT 15 0600 29.0 N 142.4 E 965 65 70
06 OCT 15 1200 30.5 N 144.0 E 965 60 70
06 OCT 15 1800 32.3 N 146.5 E 970 50 65
06 OCT 16 0000 33.5 N 149.0 E 975 55 JMA warnings
06 OCT 16 0600 36.0 N 152.6 E 975 55
06 OCT 16 1200 37.0 N 157.0 E 984 50 Extratropical
06 OCT 16 1800 39.0 N 162.0 E 982 55
06 OCT 17 0000 39.0 N 166.0 E 988 55
06 OCT 17 0600 40.0 N 173.0 E 990 55
06 OCT 17 1200 39.0 N 176.0 E 1000 45
06 OCT 17 1800 40.0 N 179.0 W 1004 35
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: CIMARON Cyclone Number: 22W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: PAENG JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0619
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 OCT 26 0600 12.0 N 136.0 E 1006 25 JMA bulletins
06 OCT 26 1200 11.9 N 134.9 E 1006 30
06 OCT 26 1800 12.6 N 133.6 E 1004 30 30
06 OCT 27 0000 12.8 N 132.3 E 1004 35 30
06 OCT 27 0600 12.8 N 130.9 E 1000 35 35
06 OCT 27 1200 13.3 N 130.2 E 992 50 45 See Note
06 OCT 27 1800 14.0 N 129.1 E 985 70 55
06 OCT 28 0000 14.3 N 128.2 E 985 75 55
06 OCT 28 0600 14.9 N 127.2 E 975 85 65
06 OCT 28 1200 15.3 N 126.3 E 965 100 70
06 OCT 28 1800 15.7 N 125.6 E 950 120 80
06 OCT 29 0000 16.0 N 124.6 E 920 145 100
06 OCT 29 0600 16.3 N 123.5 E 910 155 105
06 OCT 29 1200 16.5 N 122.5 E 910 155 105
06 OCT 29 1800 16.8 N 121.3 E 935 115 95 Inland in Luzon
06 OCT 30 0000 16.9 N 120.1 E 950 95 80 In South China Sea
06 OCT 30 0600 17.0 N 118.8 E 950 90 80
06 OCT 30 1200 16.9 N 118.2 E 950 90 80
06 OCT 30 1800 17.0 N 118.0 E 950 90 80
06 OCT 31 0000 17.7 N 117.3 E 950 90 80
06 OCT 31 0600 17.9 N 116.8 E 950 90 80
06 OCT 31 1200 18.3 N 116.6 E 950 85 80
06 OCT 31 1800 18.5 N 116.4 E 950 95 80
06 NOV 01 0000 18.7 N 116.0 E 950 100 80
06 NOV 01 0600 19.0 N 116.3 E 945 110 85
06 NOV 01 1200 19.1 N 116.3 E 940 105 90
06 NOV 01 1800 19.1 N 116.4 E 940 95 90
06 NOV 02 0000 19.1 N 116.6 E 945 95 85
06 NOV 02 0600 19.0 N 116.6 E 955 85 75
06 NOV 02 1200 18.7 N 116.5 E 965 75 65
06 NOV 02 1800 18.1 N 116.2 E 975 55 55 JMA: 18.6N/116.5E
06 NOV 03 0000 17.7 N 116.5 E 975 50 55
06 NOV 03 0600 17.3 N 116.5 E 980 45 55
06 NOV 03 1200 17.0 N 116.0 E 985 35 50
06 NOV 03 1800 16.8 N 116.1 E 990 30 45
06 NOV 04 0000 16.6 N 115.9 E 994 25 40 JMA: 16.0N/115.8E
06 NOV 04 0600 16.1 N 115.8 E 994 25 40 JMA: 15.8N/115.8E
06 NOV 04 1200 15.8 N 115.6 E 996 25 35
06 NOV 04 1800 15.7 N 115.5 E 996 35 JMA warnings
06 NOV 05 0000 15.5 N 115.2 E 1000 35
06 NOV 05 0600 15.3 N 114.7 E 1000 35
06 NOV 05 1200 15.1 N 114.5 E 1000 35
06 NOV 05 1800 14.2 N 114.2 E 1000 35
06 NOV 06 0000 14.0 N 114.0 E 1002 30
06 NOV 06 0600 14.0 N 113.0 E 1004 25
06 NOV 06 1200 13.0 N 115.0 E 1008 20
06 NOV 06 1800 11.0 N 115.0 E 1008 20
Note: The highest 10-min avg MSW estimated by PAGASA during the time that
Typhoon Paeng was within that agency's AOR was 105 kts from 29/0600
through 29/1200 UTC. I have departed from my long-standing practice of
utilizing JTWC's 1-min avg MSW for a portion of Cimaron's history. From
27/1200 through 29/1200 UTC the MSW values given above are taken from
a private analysis performed by Dr. Karl Hoarau. The peak intensity of
155 kts is supported by Dvorak ratings of T7.5/7.5 from both AFWA and
SAB, plus the opinion of the SAB analyst that Cimaron's Data-T number
reached T8.0 based on the visual technique.
*************************************************************************
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NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may
have been gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other
bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which
is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
ological Centre for the basin.
The reported maximum sustained winds are based on a 1-minute
averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic
observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Cyclonic Storm OGNI (BOB0602) 28 - 30 Oct
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: OGNI Cyclone Number: None Basin: NIO
IMD Cyclonic Storm Number: BOB0602
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 OCT 28 1130 11.7 N 79.9 E 25 JTWC & AFWA sat bull
06 OCT 28 1730 13.0 N 80.1 E 25
06 OCT 28 2330 13.6 N 80.3 E 25
06 OCT 29 0230 14.4 N 80.4 E 30 SAB satellite bulletins
06 OCT 29 0830 15.2 N 80.4 E 35
06 OCT 29 1430 15.3 N 80.4 E 45
06 OCT 29 2030 15.5 N 80.5 E 45
06 OCT 30 0230 15.6 N 80.3 E 40
06 OCT 30 0830 16.0 N 80.4 E 35 Inland
06 OCT 30 1130 16.0 N 79.8 E 30 JTWC satellite bulletin
Note: IMD upgraded this system to Cyclonic Storm Ogni at 29/1200 UTC.
Since the IMD warnings I received were sporadic and usually only gave
the center position to the nearest half degree, I elected to use SAB's
satellite bulletins for the main portion of Ogni's history since that
agency's intensity estimates supported tropical storm intensity. I did
utilize a blend of JTWC's and AFWA's satellite bulletins for the first
three data points as I did not have SAB's bulletins saved before 0230 UTC
on 29 October. The intensity estimates from JTWC and AFWA did not
support tropical storm intensity, although JTWC did issue a TCFA. A
radar image gleaned from IMD's website depicts a well-organized system
very likely of tropical storm intensity.
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
issued by Meteo France's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on Reunion
Island (MFR), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin. The 1-minute average
maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from
JTWC were compared with those from MFR and annotations made in the
Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm
or more.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Disturbance (MFR-01) 18 - 23 Oct
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: SWI
MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 01
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 OCT 18 0000 4.4 S 62.7 E 25 AFWA satellite bulletin
06 OCT 18 0600 4.2 S 61.6 E 25 AFWA & JTWC sat bull
06 OCT 18 1200 4.3 S 60.6 E 30 "
06 OCT 18 1800 4.3 S 60.1 E 30 "
06 OCT 19 0000 4.5 S 59.7 E 30 JTWC satellite bulletin
06 OCT 19 0600 2.9 S 59.1 E 1004 30 25 Locally 30 kts to S
06 OCT 19 1200 2.8 S 59.5 E 1004 30 25 "
06 OCT 19 1800 3.3 S 59.8 E 30 JTWC satellite bulletin
06 OCT 20 0000 3.7 S 59.5 E 30 "
06 OCT 20 0600 3.3 S 60.2 E 30 AFWA & JTWC sat bull
06 OCT 20 1200 3.6 S 60.6 E 1004 30 25 Locally 30 kts to S
06 OCT 20 1800 3.6 S 60.3 E 30 AFWA satellite bulletin
06 OCT 21 0000 4.9 S 60.3 E 30 AFWA & JTWC sat bull
06 OCT 21 0600 6.3 S 58.2 E 1004 30 25 Locally 30 kts to S
06 OCT 21 1200 7.4 S 57.4 E 30 AFWA & JTWC sat bull
06 OCT 21 1800 8.3 S 57.0 E 30 "
06 OCT 22 0000 9.1 S 56.8 E 30 "
06 OCT 22 0600 9.5 S 55.6 E 30 "
06 OCT 22 1200 9.7 S 54.6 E 1002 30 25 Locally 30 kts to S
06 OCT 22 1800 10.3 S 53.3 E 1003 30 25 "
06 OCT 23 0000 9.7 S 53.0 E 1004 25 25 "
06 OCT 23 0600 9.3 S 51.4 E 1005 25 20 Locally 25-30 kts to S
06 OCT 23 1200 9.2 S 50.3 E 1006 25 20 "
Note: As MFR issued only very sporadic bulletins on this system for most
of its history, I utilized satellite bulletins from both JTWC and AFWA
to fill in the gaps and to provide an estimate of the 1-min avg MSW.
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji, and
Wellington, New Zealand. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor,
Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with
those from the Southern Hemisphere centres and annotations made in the
Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm
or more.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Cyclone XAVIER (01F / 01P) 20 - 28 Oct
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: XAVIER Cyclone Number: 01P Basin: SPA
Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 01F
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 OCT 20 2100 9.9 S 167.8 E 1005 20
06 OCT 21 0000 9.9 S 167.8 E 1005 25 20 JTWC & AFWA sat bull
06 OCT 21 0600 9.9 S 169.0 E 1006 25 20 JTWC: 9.8S/168.3E
06 OCT 21 1200 10.4 S 168.4 E 1006 30 25 JTWC & AFWA sat bull
06 OCT 21 1800 11.9 S 168.3 E 1006 30 25 JTWC: 10.8S/167.9E
06 OCT 21 2100 10.9 S 168.9 E 1004 25
06 OCT 22 0000 11.0 S 167.8 E 995 45 35
06 OCT 22 0600 11.0 S 167.2 E 985 50
06 OCT 22 1200 10.9 S 167.3 E 980 50 55
06 OCT 22 1800 11.0 S 167.8 E 970 65
06 OCT 23 0000 11.5 S 168.0 E 960 80 75
06 OCT 23 0600 12.2 S 168.2 E 955 80
06 OCT 23 1200 12.5 S 168.5 E 950 85 80
06 OCT 23 1800 12.7 S 168.6 E 945 85
06 OCT 24 0000 13.1 S 169.0 E 935 115 90
06 OCT 24 0600 13.7 S 169.6 E 930 95
06 OCT 24 1200 14.4 S 170.1 E 930 115 95
06 OCT 24 1800 15.0 S 171.0 E 930 95
06 OCT 25 0000 15.6 S 171.7 E 945 75 85
06 OCT 25 0600 16.2 S 172.1 E 960 75
06 OCT 25 1200 16.0 S 171.9 E 975 65 60
06 OCT 25 1800 16.0 S 171.0 E 987 45
06 OCT 25 2100 15.0 S 170.7 E 995 35
06 OCT 26 0000 14.8 S 170.3 E 997 30 30 Peripheral gales to S
06 OCT 26 0600 14.0 S 169.5 E 1000 30 "
06 OCT 26 1800 13.0 S 168.8 E 1000 30 No gales mentioned
06 OCT 27 0600 11.4 S 167.0 E 1007 25
06 OCT 27 1800 10.5 S 166.0 E 1007 20
06 OCT 28 0600 9.5 S 165.5 E 1005 20
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!!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!!
To repeat the caveat which is included in the Author's Note
at the end of the cyclone summaries--the tropical cyclone tracks
I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/advisories/
advices/bulletins which are issued by the various tropical cyclone
warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should
be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during
post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and
analysts at the several warning centers.
For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical
cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of
the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their
Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best
tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the
North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere:
http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
SPECIAL NOTE: Back issues of the global tropical cyclone summaries
and monthly cyclone track files can be obtained at the following
websites:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
http://mpittweather.com>
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>
PREPARED BY:
Gary Padgett [email protected]
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY:
Michael V. Padua [email protected]
[email protected]
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|
Document: trak0610.htm
Updated: 6th February 2007 |
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