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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary November 2003
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                  MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                              NOVEMBER, 2003
                                

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  *************************************************************************

                            NOVEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

  --> Another super typhoon roams Western Pacific
  --> Central Philippines affected by tropical storm
  --> Hurricane-intensity cyclone in Arabian Sea
  --> First tropical cyclone (hurricane) of season in Southwest Indian

  *************************************************************************

               ***** Feature of the Month for November *****

                   TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA
            for the SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE and SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN

  A. Introduction
  ---------------

     For the monthly feature in the June, 2003, summary I included some
  tropical cyclone climatological information for the North Indian Ocean.
  This month's feature is the first of three highlighting similar sets
  of data for the Southern Hemisphere.  The source for the data was a
  a set of tropical cyclone tracks sent to me by Mr. Charles Neumann.
  These had been prepared in association with a hurricane risk analysis
  (HURISK) study he was performing for the U. S. Navy.  Earlier studies
  had been accomplished for the Atlantic and North Pacific basins.  The
  tracks and intensities were based upon available data sets for the
  various Southern Hemisphere basins from the regional warning centers,
  and from 1980 onward, JTWC's Best Track files were utilized as an
  additional source of data.

     The data set begins with the 1960-61 Southern Hemisphere cyclone
  season and extends through 2001-2002, and I have included the entire
  period.  While the annual number of intense tropical cyclones
  (MSW < 100 kts) increases somewhat around 1970, the numbers of tropical
  storms and hurricanes during the pre-1970 period are not significantly
  different than for years following the advent of meteorological
  satellites.  No doubt in pre-satellite years many cyclones were not
  detected, especially in the vast island-free South Indian Ocean.  But
  in some areas, such as northern Australia, where most storms form near
  land and affect the coastline, and also in the island-rich South Pacific,
  it is likely that most significant tropical cyclones were at least
  detected (even if not tracked accurately) before operational satellite
  coverage became complete in the late 1960s.


  B. Definition of Parameters
  ---------------------------

     The following definitions apply:

     NS  - a tropical cyclone with a peak 1-min avg MSW >= 34 kts
     H   - a tropical cyclone with a peak 1-min avg MSW >= 64 kts
     IH  - a tropical cyclone with a peak 1-min avg MSW >= 96 kts
     NSD - four 6-hour periods in which a NS is operating
     HD  - four 6-hour periods in which a H is operating
     IHD - four 6-hour periods in which an IH is operating
     NTC - (((Total NS/Avg NS) + (Total H/Avg H) + (Total IH/Avg H) +
           (Total NSD/Avg NSD) + (Total HD/Avg HD) +
           (Total IHD/Avg IHD))/6) x 100%

     I have included another seasonal measure of the overall tropical
  cyclone level of activity which I developed--the Tropical Cyclone
  Index (TCI).  It is a summation of the MSW for each 6-hourly data
  point, divided by 100 (kts) with the resultant quotient then squared.
  Thus, it is identical to Dr. Bill Gray's Hurricane Destruction Potential
  (HDP) except that I begin the TCI with 34 kts, whereas the HDP
  calculation begins with 64 kts.  It is also very similar to the index
  which NOAA uses in their Atlantic seasonal forecasts--a summation
  of the square of the velocity--except that I've scaled the TCI
  to a baseline of 100 kts in order to avoid huge numbers.

     My reason for including the TCI is that it is independent of the
  period of data covered.  The NTC is a good indicator of overall
  tropical cyclone activity, but it changes for all years whenever
  a new baseline period is utilized, whether this is done on a yearly
  basis or every 5 or 10 years.  Thus, for example, 1950's NTC for
  the 1950-1990 period is not the same as it is for the 1950-2000
  period, etc.   The TCI correlates very closely with the NTC, however.
  I calculated correlation coefficients for the NTC vs TCI data sets
  for several basins, and the two indices always correlated to around
  97-98%.  Thus, the TCI is an absolute index independent of the average
  values of the various parameters, yet it correlates well with the NTC
  as computed by Dr. Gray's rule.


  C. Southern Hemisphere Basins
  -----------------------------

     Dividing up the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclogenetical
  regions is rather problematic.  The Northern Hemisphere basins are
  rather neatly divided geographically by landmasses and regions of
  very infrequent tropical cyclone formation, but storms form in
  the Southern Hemisphere in a rather continuous band from the
  Mozambique Channel off the eastern coast of Africa eastward across
  the South Indian Ocean, through the seas and gulfs north of
  Australia, into the Coral Sea and across the South Pacific to the
  region of French Polynesia well east of the International Dateline.
  Several different schemes for dividing the Southern Hemisphere into
  useful basins for statistical purposes have been proposed, but none
  are completely satisfactory in all respects.  For my purposes, I am
  going to present statistics for various longitudinal regions, some
  of which overlap.

     This monthly feature includes a table for the entire Southern
  Hemisphere, and then focuses on the South Indian Ocean.   Future
  monthly features in this series will focus on the South Pacific Ocean
  and the Australian Region.  I contemplated including data for the
  2002-2003 season based on the operational tracks, but in the interest
  of getting the summary out in a timely fashion I did not attempt this.
  I did glean the numbers of NS, H and IH for the various areas, and
  these are summarized following each table.  The four regions covered
  this month are:

     (1) Entire Southern Hemisphere
     (2) South Indian Ocean west of longitude 135E
     (3) South Indian Ocean west of longitude 105E
     (4) Southwest Indian Ocean (west of longitude 90E)

     It seemed appropriate to include a table for the entire Southern
  Hemisphere, even though it is far too broad an area to consider as a
  single basin for most tropical cyclone statistical analyses.   The
  rationale for Region (2) is that longitude 135E neatly bisects Australia,
  the principal landmass in the middle of the Southern Hemisphere tropical
  cyclogenetical region.  The area around 135E does experience a rather
  low-frequency of tropical cyclone formations.  Region (3) was included
  since it represents the "open" South Indian Ocean.  The landmass of
  Java extends westward to 105E just north of latitude 10S.  However,
  west of 105E the island of Sumatra quickly bends away to the northwest,
  leaving the basin with open ocean all the way to the equator (and beyond)
  west of around 100E.  Region (4) lies west of the "political" boundary
  between the regions of warning responsibility of Australia versus Meteo
  France on La Reunion and Mauritius.    There is little reason,
  meteorologically speaking, to justify using this meridian as a boundary;
  in fact, the area around 90E in some recent seasons has been a local
  "hotspot" for the genesis of tropical cyclones.


  D. Tables of Tropical Cyclone Data
  ----------------------------------

     The tropical cyclone data in tabular format follows.  The various
  intensity categories are based on a MSW averaged over 1-minute.  This
  results in slightly higher numbers of cyclones than would be obtained
  utilizing a 10-minute averaging period, as all the Southern Hemisphere
  TCWCs do.   The year listed in the leftmost column is the year in
  which the season ends; e.g., 1961 represents the 12-month period from
  1 July 1960 through 30 June 1961.


  (1)                 ENTIRE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

  Year    NS     H    IH     NSD       HD      IHD     NTC    TCI
  ---------------------------------------------------------------
  1961    18     6     2    96.25    22.00     2.50     50    106
  1962    22     6     0    99.50    10.50      .00     37     83
  1963    35     9     2   134.75    24.25      .75     66    141
  1964    26    11     1   133.50    32.00     1.25     64    152
  1965    27     7     0    87.75     8.50      .00     39     72
  1966    19     7     1    80.25    25.50     1.00     45    105
  1967    23     8     1    92.25    15.75     1.75     48     95
  1968    25    13     2   127.75    36.00     2.25     72    162
  1969    24     7     0    87.75    12.00      .00     38     84
  1970    30    14     2   149.50    37.50    10.25     95    200
  1971    28    15     3   160.25    38.00     2.25     85    195
  1972    31    19     7   158.50    50.25    11.00    127    232
  1973    34    18     3   145.75    47.50     2.50     95    201
  1974    32    11     0   136.25    23.25      .00     59    135
  1975    32    10     5   143.50    37.00     9.50     99    193
  1976    26    12     3   135.75    37.25     5.00     82    177
  1977    29    12     2   132.75    29.25     1.50     70    145
  1978    30    13     4   151.50    43.25     5.25     94    194
  1979    27     9     6   149.25    42.75     9.75    102    208
  1980    28    16    10   174.75    52.75    15.75    144    285
  1981    31    14     8   139.00    47.50    10.75    120    208
  1982    31    15     7   156.50    52.50     9.25    119    227
  1983    26    16     5   132.25    46.75     6.00     99    200
  1984    34    17     5   149.00    44.75     9.00    112    230
  1985    36    19    10   171.50    50.50    10.50    141    253
  1986    33    18     7   147.25    54.25    10.00    125    227
  1987    28    14     4   132.50    25.50     2.00     78    143
  1988    20    12     4   103.75    25.00     7.50     78    145
  1989    34    18    10   164.50    64.50    17.25    156    287
  1990    26    18     5   145.00    54.50    11.75    117    230
  1991    19    10     4   102.00    34.00     8.25     79    164
  1992    30    16    11   147.50    74.75    25.50    173    322
  1993    29    12     7   134.25    48.25    14.00    119    227
  1994    29    18    11   163.50    71.75    23.25    171    319
  1995    21    13     8   102.00    38.25    10.75    104    168
  1996    27    15     8   122.50    48.25    17.25    130    232
  1997    38    22     8   232.50    72.25    21.50    177    358
  1998    36    17     7   157.75    49.50    12.00    129    250
  1999    34    13     7   125.25    40.75    14.25    119    207
  2000    28    16     8   135.75    53.50    14.50    130    227
  2001    22    11     4    77.50    31.75     6.00     74    128
  2002    25    12     8    98.75    40.50    17.00    118    196

  Avg.   28.2  13.3   5.0  133.8     40.4      8.6

  2002-2003 Season - NS: 32     H: 18     IH: 11



  (2)          ENTIRE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (WEST OF 135E)

  Year    NS     H    IH     NSD       HD      IHD     NTC    TCI
  ---------------------------------------------------------------
  1961     9     5     2    53.50    19.00     2.50     56     74
  1962    15     5     0    73.00     9.75      .00     43     64
  1963    18     7     2    72.75    18.25      .75     67     91
  1964    16     7     1    64.25    16.00     1.25     58     77
  1965    19     4     0    54.75     5.25      .00     39     44
  1966    17     6     1    58.50    15.75     1.00     55     69
  1967    15     6     0    52.50     9.75      .00     41     52
  1968    19    10     2   100.50    33.50     2.25     92    136
  1969    14     5     0    48.75     8.25      .00     37     48
  1970    17    11     2   109.50    33.50    10.25    116    165
  1971    21    14     3   123.75    37.00     2.25    113    165
  1972    15     8     2    76.50    19.50     2.00     71     98
  1973    21    14     2   104.00    39.50     1.75    105    153
  1974    17     8     0    86.75    16.50      .00     58     91
  1975    20     6     3    81.50    19.75     4.75     85    108
  1976    14     7     3    85.50    22.75     5.00     85    114
  1977    14     8     1    92.50    21.00      .75     66    105
  1978    19     9     4    94.50    29.25     5.25    105    135
  1979    16     5     4    84.00    26.25     5.50     91    124
  1980    17    12     9   128.50    46.00    15.25    177    235
  1981    22    10     8   108.00    41.25    10.75    154    175
  1982    24     9     2   114.25    36.00     6.25    110    161
  1983    11     6     0    37.00     6.50      .00     32     40
  1984    25    11     3   114.50    39.25     7.25    125    175
  1985    21    12     5   115.50    32.00     4.75    122    162
  1986    23    12     7   109.25    43.00    10.00    153    182
  1987    13     6     2    69.25    12.00     1.50     58     71
  1988    13     7     2    63.50    15.00     4.50     69     85
  1989    20    12     6    99.75    42.75    10.50    145    177
  1990    20    13     4   109.75    43.50     8.25    133    179
  1991    15     7     2    75.00    23.75     4.00     77    115
  1992    15     7     7    69.75    36.25    15.50    140    158
  1993    16     4     2    62.25    15.50     4.50     66     88
  1994    23    14     7   125.25    50.75    14.50    177    232
  1995    15    10     7    82.00    33.75     9.75    130    142
  1996    20    12     7    93.25    43.50    16.00    164    201
  1997    22    13     5   137.50    42.00    13.50    159    212
  1998    17     5     2    55.00    11.50     1.75     57     64
  1999    22    10     6    82.25    28.50    12.50    137    148
  2000    20    12     7   112.25    48.00    14.00    165    200
  2001    16     9     4    58.00    26.50     6.00     95    103
  2002    17    10     7    82.50    35.75    16.00    151    176

  Avg.   17.7   8.8   3.4   86.2     27.5      6.0

  2002-2003 Season - NS: 20     H: 11     IH: 5 



  (3)          "OPEN" SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (WEST OF 105E)

  Year    NS     H    IH     NSD       HD      IHD     NTC    TCI
  ---------------------------------------------------------------
  1961     4     1     0    15.25     2.75      .00     13     13
  1962    13     5     0    44.75     9.75      .00     48     43
  1963    12     6     1    47.25    16.75      .50     64     66
  1964    13     5     1    49.25    11.75     1.25     62     59
  1965    13     2     0    33.50     2.25      .00     31     25
  1966    12     5     1    42.25    13.00     1.00     59     54
  1967    12     4     0    40.00     6.00      .00     40     38
  1968    16    10     2    87.25    33.50     2.25    116    127
  1969    10     5     0    39.75     8.25      .00     42     43
  1970    14     9     2    91.25    30.75    10.25    139    146
  1971    15    11     2    96.75    31.50      .75    113    130
  1972    12     6     1    62.50    13.25     1.25     68     73
  1973    16    10     1    81.00    27.75     1.50    100    114
  1974    10     3     0    50.25     7.25      .00     38     49
  1975    14     3     0    49.50     9.00      .00     44     49
  1976     9     4     1    55.25    11.75      .75     54     59
  1977    10     4     1    74.75    14.75      .75     63     82
  1978    16     7     3    74.00    21.00     2.50    103     98
  1979    14     4     4    75.00    25.00     5.50    114    115
  1980    14     9     6   103.75    35.50    11.25    178    181
  1981    20     8     5    76.25    22.25     4.50    134    102
  1982    14     7     2    80.00    33.00     6.25    118    130
  1983     8     4     0    25.75     4.25      .00     30     27
  1984    19     8     3    94.75    32.50     7.25    141    148
  1985    16     9     3    80.25    17.25     4.00    113    103
  1986    17     8     5    80.75    32.50     8.00    152    138
  1987     9     3     0    49.00     7.00      .00     36     43
  1988    13     7     2    63.50    15.00     4.50     92     85
  1989    16     8     4    79.00    32.00     7.75    142    133
  1990    17    10     4    92.25    35.25     7.75    154    154
  1991    11     6     2    55.00    20.25     4.00     87     90
  1992    13     5     5    55.75    27.75    10.75    139    121
  1993    13     4     2    50.50    15.50     4.50     82     80
  1994    18    12     6   104.25    43.75    13.50    206    204
  1995    12     7     4    68.00    26.25     7.25    125    112
  1996    13     8     4    64.25    30.75    12.50    151    146
  1997    18    11     5   111.00    38.50    13.50    194    185
  1998    13     3     1    39.00     5.00     1.00     48     38
  1999    16     5     2    55.25    16.75     5.75     95     83
  2000    16     8     5    85.00    38.50    11.00    168    153
  2001    10     7     3    42.00    23.50     5.00     99     84
  2002    15     9     6    73.50    32.75    14.25    180    159

  Avg.   13.5   6.4   2.4   65.2     21.0      4.6

  2002-2003 Season - NS: 15     H: 10     IH: 4



  (4)           SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (WEST OF 90E)

  Year    NS     H    IH     NSD       HD      IHD     NTC    TCI
  ---------------------------------------------------------------
  1961     4     1     0    15.25     2.75      .00     15     13
  1962    11     5     0    42.50     9.75      .00     51     42
  1963    11     6     1    44.50    16.75      .50     71     65
  1964    11     4     1    45.00    11.50     1.25     64     56
  1965    12     2     0    32.50     2.25      .00     34     24
  1966    12     5     1    34.50    13.00     1.00     66     49
  1967    11     4     0    35.00     6.00      .00     43     35
  1968    15     9     2    80.25    30.50     2.25    124    117
  1969     9     5     0    38.75     8.25      .00     46     42
  1970    14     9     2    90.25    30.75    10.25    159    146
  1971    14    11     2    94.00    31.50      .75    127    129
  1972    11     6     1    55.00    13.00     1.25     74     67
  1973    13     8     1    72.00    23.75     1.50     99    100
  1974     7     1     0    32.50     6.00      .00     28     32
  1975     9     3     0    30.50     9.00      .00     38     33
  1976     8     3     1    49.00    10.00      .75     55     52
  1977    10     4     1    68.75    14.75      .75     70     77
  1978    16     7     2    65.00    14.50     2.00    100     77
  1979    13     4     4    62.75    24.50     5.50    125    105
  1980    12     6     5    84.25    25.50     7.75    154    136
  1981    13     5     3    58.75    16.00     2.75    100     72
  1982    12     7     2    70.00    32.00     6.25    129    121
  1983     7     4     0    20.75     3.75      .00     31     22
  1984    16     7     3    82.50    30.00     7.25    148    133
  1985    12     5     2    58.25    12.25     3.50     90     75
  1986    14     8     5    69.50    29.50     8.00    163    124
  1987     8     3     0    45.50     7.00      .00     40     41
  1988    11     6     2    56.25    13.25     4.50     96     77
  1989    13     8     4    67.25    32.00     7.75    154    123
  1990    11     8     3    71.00    31.00     4.75    131    121
  1991     9     5     1    44.75    17.00     2.25     73     73
  1992    12     4     4    37.75    17.50     8.50    122     83
  1993    13     4     2    48.00    15.50     4.50     93     78
  1994    15    11     6    96.75    39.25    13.50    221    189
  1995    12     7     4    68.00    26.25     7.25    143    112
  1996    11     8     4    53.50    28.50    12.50    164    135
  1997    17    10     4    92.25    30.75    11.25    187    151
  1998    11     2     1    35.50     4.50     1.00     48     34
  1999    11     3     2    32.75     9.00     3.50     72     47
  2000    11     6     3    65.00    28.00     6.25    127    107
  2001     9     6     3    37.25    20.00     5.00    104     75
  2002    13     9     6    62.75    31.75    14.25    198    150

  Avg.   11.5   5.7   2.1   55.9     18.5      4.1

  2002-2003 Season - NS: 14     H: 9     IH: 3


  E. Monthly Tropical Cyclone Information
  ---------------------------------------

     I did not have the time to attempt to ferret out monthly information
  regarding tropical cyclone genesis.     Patrick Hoareau has already
  compiled much information on Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones,
  including monthly tropical cyclone frequencies, and this can be accessed
  at the following link:

     http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/stats.htm>

  I would encourage those interested in detailed statistics of Southern
  Hemisphere tropical cyclones to visit the above website.  More infor-
  mation describing Patrick's work can be found in the monthly feature
  in the February, 2003, summary.

  *************************************************************************
  
                            ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones


                   Atlantic Tropical Activity for November
                   ---------------------------------------

     No tropical storms or depressions formed in the Atlantic basin during
  November, but there were a few systems which should be mentioned.  A non-
  tropical LOW moved across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico during the
  opening days of November.  This system at times exhibited some features
  of subtropical LOWs, and it was thought at one point that it might
  undergo some development in the Gulf, but this never materialized.  More
  information on this system can be found in the October summary.

     A tropical wave moved into the eastern Caribbean Sea around the 9th
  of November.  A broad area of low pressure formed and moved very, very
  slowly northward across Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic
  for the better part of a week.  Convection at times became slightly
  better organized, but the system was never able to form a well-defined
  surface circulation.  This system brought very heavy rains to the islands
  of the northeastern Caribbean.  As of early on 15 November some areas in
  Puerto Rico had already recorded over 600 mm of rain during the previous
  5 days with La Plata measuring almost one metre.

     The associated flooding and landslides were quite destructive in
  Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.  Press reports indicated that
  at least two persons died in Puerto Rico and ten in the Dominican
  Republic while monetary losses amounted to many millions of dollars.
  The following links contain some articles related to the aftermath
  of the severe flooding:

     http://www.caribbeannetnews.com/2003/11/16/floods.htm>
     http://www.caribbeannetnews.com/2003/11/23/disaster.htm>
     http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vLND>

     Finally, showers began to increase over the southwestern Caribbean
  during the final days of November.  The official Atlantic hurricane
  season ended on 30 November without any system developing, but the
  disturbed weather persisted and began to show signs of organization
  during the early days of December.  On 4 December the system became
  Tropical Storm Odette--the first Atlantic tropical cyclone to form
  in December in 19 years and the first December storm on record to
  develop within the confines of the Caribbean Sea.

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones
               

              Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for November
              ------------------------------------------------

     No tropical cyclones formed in the Northeast Pacific basin during
  November, but one tropical disturbance almost developed into a tropical
  depression.  A system first noted south of Guatemala in late October
  slowly moved westward over the next week.  By 6 November it was located
  about 650 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas and displayed a fairly well-
  organized circulation, but associated convective activity was weak.
  The system looked a little healthier the next day and the Tropical
  Weather Outlooks issued by TPC/NHC noted that a tropical depression
  could form within the next couple of days.   The Dvorak rating from
  SAB reached T2.0/2.0 at 07/1200 UTC and was up to T2.5/2.5 six hours
  later.  However, the system encountered hostile upper-level conditions
  early on the 8th and quickly weakened.

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for November:  1 tropical depression **
                          1 typhoon 
                          1 super typhoon

  ** - classified as a tropical depression by JMA only


                       Sources of Information
                       ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).  Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
  sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the
  National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather
  Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO).  A very
  special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
  reliably provide.

     In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.


              Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for November
              ------------------------------------------------

     Tropical cyclone activity during November in the Northwest Pacific
  basin was about normal.  Two storms were named, and both became typhoons.
  Tropical Storm Nepartak moved rapidly through the central Philippines
  into the South China Sea, where it intensified into a typhoon and took
  aim on Hainan Dao.  The storm brushed the western side of the island, but
  quickly fell apart before making landfall in southern China.  Typhoon
  Lupit became an intense super typhoon, but fortunately recurved well
  east of the Philippines and did not significantly affect any land areas.
  Reports on Nepartak and Lupit follow.  (A special thanks to Kevin Boyle
  for writing the summary on Nepartak.)

     One other tropical weather system was classified as a weak tropical
  depression by JMA only on 14-16 November.  This system remained quasi-
  stationary several hundred miles southwest of Wake Island.  Maximum
  winds (per JMA) were estimated at 25 kts or less.  No track was given
  for this system in the accompanying cyclone tracks file.  JTWC assigned
  this disturbance a fair potential for development at one point, but no
  TCFA was issued.  Additionally, as the month of November opened, Typhoon
  Melor was crossing northeastern Luzon, subsequently weakening and
  recurving just east of Taiwan.  The complete report on Melor can be
  found in the October summary.



                            TYPHOON NEPARTAK
                        (TC-25W / TY 0320 / WENG)
                            10 - 19 November
              ---------------------------------------------

  Nepartak: contributed by Micronesia, is the name of a famous, legendary
            Kosrae warrior

  Weng: PAGASA name, is a Filipino female nickname for Rowena

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     At 0000 UTC on 11 November, animated multi-spectral imagery revealed
  a broad area of deep convection associated with an elongated trough.
  This convection had persisted for the previous 24 hours approximately
  350 nm south-southeast of Guam, and was located in a weak vertical shear
  environment with weak to moderate divergence aloft.    Development
  potential in the STWO issued by JTWC at this time was assessed as poor.
  In the 11/1130 UTC STWO the development potential was upgraded to fair,
  based on an increase in convection and a better organised LLCC.  A TCFA
  was released at 11/2030 UTC after spiral banding began to appear over
  the system.  The first warning on Tropical Depression 25W was issued at
  12/1200 UTC with the centre located approximately 775 nm east of Manila,
  Philippines.   Its position in the southwestern quadrant of an upper-
  level anticyclone allowed significant intensification, and at 12/1800
  UTC the system was upgraded to a 40-kt tropical storm.

  (Editor's Note: JMA initiated bulletins on the pre-Nepartak system as
  a 30-kt tropical depression at 1800 UTC on 10 November.)


  B. Storm History
  ----------------

     At 0000 UTC on 13 November, the yet-to-be-named tropical storm was
  moving smartly westward at 21 kts, located approximately 530 nm east-
  southeast of Manila, Philippines.  At this time, animated enhanced
  infrared satellite imagery and QuikScat data revealed that much of the
  deep convection and strongest winds were situated in the northern
  quadrant.  Increased poleward outflow and the development of deep
  convection in the southwestern quadrant coincided with JMA's upgrade to
  tropical storm intensity and subsequent naming of the system.  Tropical
  Storm Nepartak (named Weng by PAGASA) intensified as it tracked quickly
  westward through the central Philippines during the 14th and reached
  typhoon intensity at 14/1200 UTC, although it was briefly downgraded to
  a tropical storm at 14/1800 UTC.  But Nepartak/Weng was upgraded again
  at 15/0000 UTC as it entered the South China Sea, having successfully
  negotiated the Philippines.

     After its passage across the Philippines Nepartak slowed somewhat
  (to 12 kts) and turned abruptly to the northwest at 15/0600 UTC at a
  point approximately 245 nm west of Manila.   The heading subsequently
  turned back to the west-northwest, and the MSW remained at 65 kts
  throughout the 15th.  Intensification resumed and Nepartak reached its
  first peak intensity at 16/0000 UTC, developing weak duel upper-level
  outflow channels as seen on enhanced infrared satellite animations.
  Nepartak remained a 75-kt typhoon for the rest of the 16th as it moved
  closer to Hainan.

     At 0000 UTC on the 17th Typhoon Nepartak was centred approximately
  140 nm south-southeast of Hainan Island and closing.  Deep convection
  had decreased markedly as the system began to entrain drier air into its
  circulation.  The MSW fell slowly during the 17th but Nepartak held on
  to typhoon status, moving to within 80 nm south of Hainan at 17/1200
  UTC.  A passing shortwave trough dug into the mid-level ridge controlling
  Nepartak, resulting in a change to a north-northwesterly heading.  Also,
  the trough enhanced Nepartak's poleward outflow, and as a result the
  MSW re-intensified to a secondary peak of 75 kts at 18/0000 UTC.   At
  this time, a 10-nm eye feature was observed on a 17/2255 UTC SSM/I pass.

     Nepartak's small eye was centred 15 nm south of southwestern Hainan at
  18/0000 UTC.  Satellite images showed the small typhoon encompassing the
  Gulf of Tonkin and Hainan at this time.  Movement was toward the north-
  northwest at 6 kts, and this took Nepartak's eye as close as 5 nm off
  Hainan's western coastline at 18/0600 UTC and 18/1200 UTC.  Typhoon
  Nepartak deteriorated rapidly soon after its secondary peak and by
  18/1800 UTC was basically a swirl of low clouds with little convection.
  The downgrade to tropical storm intensity had occurred at 18/1200 UTC
  with a further downgrade to tropical depression status at 0600 UTC the
  next day.  JTWC issued its final warning at 19/1200 UTC after Nepartak's
  slow northeasterly motion had taken it inland just west of Beihai, China,
  at 19/0900 UTC.  Synoptic reports at the time of landfall suggested a
  very insignificant system with a MSW of only 20 kts.

  (Editor's Note:  JMA classified Nepartak as a minimal typhoon for only
  one 6-hour period, beginning at 16/1800 UTC.  HKO treated the cyclone
  as a 60-kt tropical storm at this juncture, but upgraded it to 65 kts
  for a 12-hour period on 18 November.  NMCC upgraded Nepartak to typhoon
  status at 17/0000 UTC and downgraded it at 1200 UTC on the 18th with a
  peak 10-min avg MSW of 70 kts at 18/0000 UTC.  The minimum CP estimated
  by JMA was 975 hPa.)


  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     Nepartak/Weng caused four deaths and one injury as it moved through
  the central Philippines on 14 November.  The storm left four million
  people without electricity in the provinces of Samar, Leyte and Masbate
  and on the nearby island of Marinduque.  Schools were closed in Manila
  and in nearby provinces due to heavy rain.  Rough seas forced the
  cancellation of ferry services, leaving 2000 passengers stranded.  Only
  light damage to crops and houses was reported.  No reports of damage or
  casualties from Hainan Dao have been received.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle)



                            SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT
                        (TC-26W / TY 0321 / YOYOY)
                         15 November - 6 December
              ----------------------------------------------

  Lupit: contributed by the Philippines, means 'cruel' or 'vicious'

  Yoyoy: PAGASA name, is a Filipino male nickname

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     JTWC issued an interim STWO at 0900 UTC on 15 November, noting that
  an area of convection had developed and persisted for 12 hours roughly
  410 nm north-northeast of Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands.
  Cycling convection was present over a weak LLCC, and a 200-mb analysis
  indicated weak to moderate outflow and moderate vertical shear.  The
  maximum surface winds were estimated at 15-20 kts.  The potential for
  development into a tropical cyclone was assessed as poor.  A few hours
  later, at 1200 UTC, JMA classified the system as a tropical depression
  with 30-kt winds in their High Seas Bulletins.  Over the next couple
  of days the disturbance drifted slowly westward or southwestward with
  little change in organization.  A weak LLCC was evident northwest of
  the deepest convection.  JMA downgraded the system to weak depression
  status (winds 25 kts or less) at 16/1200 UTC.

     At 2100 UTC on 17 November, the system was located approximately
  150 nm northwest of Kwajalein.  Cycling deep convection was located over
  the LLCC, and a recent QuikScat pass indicated that the circulation had
  strengthened some over the past 12 hours.  Therefore, the development
  potential was upgraded to fair.    However, subsequent animated infrared
  and water vapor imagery indicated that the deep convection was
  dissipating due to convergence associated with an upper-level ridge to
  the northwest, so the potential for development was downgraded to poor
  at 18/0600 UTC.   (At 18/0000 UTC JMA had lowered the system's status
  to a low-pressure area and relocated the weak center about 200 nm to
  the south of their 17/1800 UTC position.)

     As the 18th wore on, deep convection began to re-fire over the LLCC,
  and an 18/0655 UTC QuikScat pass indicated that the LLCC had strengthened
  once again.  Water vapor imagery also revealed an outflow channel to the
  east-northeast.  JTWC upgraded the development potential to fair once
  more at 1000 UTC, and JMA upped the winds back to 30 kts at 1200 UTC.
  JTWC issued a TCFA at 1700 UTC, placing the center about 375 nm east-
  northeast of Pohnpei.   A 200-mb analysis indicated good diffluence
  aloft with weak vertical shear, and the MSW was estimated at 20-25 kts.
  Visible imagery early on the 19th indicated multiple LLCCs, and the deep
  convection continued to cycle in intensity.  JTWC issued a second TCFA
  at 1700 UTC, and the first warning on Tropical Depression 26W followed
  at 2100 UTC.   The system was centered approximately 250 nm east-
  northeast of Pohnpei, moving west-southwestward at 7 kts as it was being
  steered by a mid-level ridge located to the north-northwest.  JTWC's
  initial warning intensity was 25 kts, although some CI estimates were
  already at 30 and 35 kts.


  B. Storm History
  ----------------

     TD-26W moved slowly westward or west-southwestward on 20 November.
  At 1800 UTC JTWC upgraded the system to tropical storm status with the
  center located approximately 180 nm northeast of Pohnpei.  Deep
  convection had increased but was located mostly to the south of the LLCC.
  As the low to mid-level ridge to the north-northwest built on the 21st,
  the cyclone's westerly motion increased to around 15 kts.  The intensity
  remained static for most of the day, but by 1800 UTC satellite CI
  estimates had increased to 45 kts, so the MSW was raised to that value.
  (NMCC and JMA had upgraded the system to tropical storm status at
  21/1200 UTC with JMA assigning the name Lupit.)   At 1800 UTC the center
  of Tropical Storm Lupit was located approximately 235 nm east-northeast
  of Chuuk.  Deep convection had increased and the outflow had improved
  in all quadrants.   Microwave data around 22/0000 UTC depicted a banding
  eye feature, and with CI estimates of 55 and 65 kts, JTWC upped the MSW
  to 60 kts.  A 22/0404 UTC TRMM pass indicated a 16-nm irregular eye,
  so Lupit was upgraded to a typhoon at 0600 UTC.  (JMA and NMCC did not
  upgrade Lupit to typhoon status until 23/1200 UTC and 24/0000 UTC,
  respectively.)   By 1800 UTC Lupit had reached a position about 360 nm
  southeast of Guam, still tracking westward at 16 kts.  The intensity as
  reported by JTWC had continued to increase and had reached 75 kts by
  that time.

     Early on the 23rd of November Typhoon Lupit's track shifted to the
  west-southwest, moving south of the 8th parallel at 0600 UTC.  By 1200
  UTC, however, the westward motion had resumed.   Satellite imagery at
  1200 UTC revealed a small, cloud-filled eye.  JMA upgraded Lupit to
  typhoon status, and JTWC upped the MSW to 95 kts, where it remained
  pegged for 30 hours.  By 1800 UTC Lupit was passing about 320 nm south of
  Guam.  A peripheral ridge building to the southeast of the typhoon began
  to modify the steering ridge, causing it to become oriented northeast-
  southwest.  This was expected to influence Lupit's motion, causing it to
  become northwesterly, and this turn to the northwest had occurred by 
  0600 UTC on 24 November.   The eye's appearance was somewhat transient 
  through much of the 24th and the intensity remained at 95 kts.  However, 
  by 1800 UTC convection had increased and the eye was becoming apparent
  again.  With CI estimates of 90 and 102 kts, JTWC raised the MSW to
  100 kts at 1800 UTC.  Typhoon Lupit was just then crossing the 10th
  parallel, being located approximately 285 nm southwest of Guam.  The
  storm continued on a northwesterly trajectory at 12 kts through much of
  the 25th, but by 1800 UTC Lupit was moving west-northwestward at 7 kts.
  The typhoon was then centered about 170 nm north-northwest of Yap.  The
  satellite signature fluctuated some throughout the day, but the general
  trend was one of intensification with the MSW reaching 120 kts at 1800
  UTC.   A 25/1742 UTC TRMM pass depicted a 15-nm diameter eye.

     Lupit's 66-hour reign as a super typhoon (the year's fifth) began at
  0000 UTC on 26 November when JTWC upped the MSW to 130 kts.  The intense
  storm was then centered approximately 200 nm north-northwest of Yap.
  With good outflow channels in both poleward and equatorward directions,
  Lupit continued to slowly intensify.  The cyclone was still being steered
  by a mid to upper-level ridge situated to the northeast, but the ridge
  was being weakened by a series of shortwave troughs propagating east-
  ward from Asia.  Hence, the typhoon's motion became more northwesterly.
  The slow northwestward motion continued on the 27th as Super Typhoon
  Lupit reached its estimated peak intensity of 145 kts, based on CI
  estimates of 140 and 155 kts.  At 27/0000 UTC the 14-nm eye was centered
  approximately 730 nm south-southwest of the island of Iwo Jima.  Storm-
  force winds extended outward 80-100 nm from the center, and gales
  covered an area well over 400 nm in diameter.   The minimum CP estimated
  by JMA was 915 hPa.  (The peak 10-min avg MSW estimates from JMA, PAGASA
  and NMCC were 100 kts, 110 kts and 120 kts, respectively.) 

     The 28th of November saw Super Typhoon Lupit begin to track increas-
  ingly toward the north-northwest into a weakness in the subtropical
  ridge.  The storm had undergone an eyewall replacement cycle late on the
  27th, and subsequently began to show signs of weakening:  weakening
  eyewall convection, warmer eye temperatures, and a decrease in outflow.
  JTWC maintained the MSW at 140 kts on the 1200 UTC warning, but dropped
  the intensity to 125 kts at 1800 UTC.  (Interestingly, CI estimates at
  the time were ranging from 102 to 140 kts.)   At 0000 UTC on 29 November
  Typhoon Lupit was centered about 520 nm south-southeast of Okinawa.  The
  storm was tracking north-northwestward at 8 kts, but by 1200 UTC the
  heading had become northerly, and by 1800 UTC Lupit had crossed the
  subtropical ridge axis and was moving northeastward.  The typhoon was
  entering a more hostile vertical shear environment and CI estimates
  gradually fell through the 29th--by 1800 UTC the MSW was down to 95 kts.

     At 0000 UTC on 30 November Typhoon Lupit, with 90-kt winds, was
  centered approximately 375 nm southeast of Okinawa, moving to the north-
  east at 12 kts.  The storm's forward motion accelerated considerably as
  the 30th progressed:  by 1800 UTC Lupit was speeding northeastward at
  24 kts as it became increasingly involved with the mid-latitude
  westerlies.   Satellite imagery revealed a significant decrease in
  convection as dry air began to be entrained into the system, and this,
  along with increasing vertical shear, contributed to the continued 
  weakening of Lupit.  JTWC downgraded Lupit to a 60-kt tropical storm at 
  0000 UTC on 1 December.  (JMA and NMCC were still maintaining the cyclone
  as a typhoon, but downgraded it six hours later.)   The storm was located
  about 200 nm northwest of Iwo Jima, embedded in an unfavorable environ-
  ment and weakening rapidly.   JTWC issued the final warning on Lupit
  at 01/0600 UTC with the storm located 270 nm north-northwest of Iwo Jima
  and racing northeastward at 26 kts.   The storm was beginning to undergo
  extratropical transition; however, JMA continued issuing tropical cyclone
  bulletins on Lupit through 02/0600 UTC, declaring the storm extratropical
  at 02/1200 UTC.   The remnants of the former super typhoon continued
  northeastward, turning to the north on the 3rd of December.  Based on
  ship reports, the system remained a vigorous 50-kt storm through the
  5th, but then weakened rapidly.  By 0600 UTC on 6 December all that
  remained was a 25-kt LOW east of the Kamchatka Peninsula.


  C. Meteorological Observations
  ------------------------------

     The Japanese island of Chichijima (WMO 47971, 27.1N, 142.2E, Alt 3 m)
  reported a gust of 61 kts at 0138 UTC on 1 December.  A higher gust of
  72 kts was recorded a couple hours later at 01/0340 UTC.   A peak gust
  of 70 kts was reported from Hachijojima (time unknown).  (Thanks to
  Huang Chunliang for sending along these observations.)


  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Super Typhoon Lupit
  have been received by the author.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for November:  1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   Occasionally some
  information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
  and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
  (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
  Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
 
     The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
  averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
  weather services for tropical cyclone warnings.     For synoptic
  observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
  3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
  modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
  hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.  In the North Indian Ocean
  basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
  become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
  within 48 hours.



                            TROPICAL CYCLONE
                                (TC-02A)
                            12 - 15 November
                  ------------------------------------

     An area of convection developed on 10 November approximately 600 nm
  west of Cochin, India, in the Arabian Sea.  The disturbance was located
  in a low vertical shear environment with weak to moderate divergence
  aloft.    A QuikScat pass indicated a possible weak LLCC with winds of
  15-20 kts.  By 1800 UTC on the 11th the system had reached a position
  about 800 nm west of Cochin.   Environmental conditions were still rather
  favorable for intensification, so JTWC upgraded the development potential
  to fair.  A TCFA was issued at 12/0500 UTC.  Deep convection was located
  over the LLCC and vertical shear was weak over the northern half of the
  circulation and moderate over the southern half.   IMD classified the
  system as a depression at 0900 UTC, and JTWC issued the first warning
  on Tropical Cyclone 02A at 1200 UTC.  The MSW was estimated at 30 kts,
  based on CI estimates of 25 and 35 kts, and the center was placed
  approximately 650 nm east of the coast of Somalia, tracking west-
  southwestward under the influence of a ridge to the north.  (IMD upgraded
  the system to deep depression status at 12/1800 UTC, implying 30-kt peak
  winds.)

     The next JTWC warning at 13/0000 UTC upped the MSW to 55 kts.  Deep
  cycling convection had consolidated over the LLCC, rapidly intensifying
  TC-02A into a strong tropical storm.   A 13/0650 UTC AMSU pass depicted
  a 25-nm eye, and at 1200 UTC the cyclone was upgraded to hurricane
  intensity.  The storm was then centered about 475 nm east-southeast of
  Somalia, moving westward at 6 kts.  Satellite CI estimates continued to
  increase, reaching 77 kts at 1800 UTC, so the MSW was bumped up to
  75 kts.   Tropical Cyclone 02A reached its peak intensity of 85 kts at
  0000 UTC on 14 November, based on CI estimates of 90 kts.   Gales covered
  an area roughly 250 nm in diameter while 50-kt winds reached outward
  from the center 50-70 nm.   The storm didn't maintain its peak for very
  long--at 1200 UTC CI estimates had dropped to 55-65 kts and the MSW was
  reduced to 65 kts.  The cyclone was then located about 335 nm east of the
  coast of Somalia, tracking west-southwestward at 9 kts.  There had been 
  a significant decrease in outflow and convection during the previous six
  hours, and the rapid weakening trend continued.

     The main culprit in the demise of TC-02A appeared to be entrainment
  of much dry air into the system.  The 14/1800 UTC warning relocated the
  center and further reduced the intensity to 50 kts, based on CI estimates
  of 45-55 kts.   Microwave imagery around 0000 UTC on 15 November revealed
  that the system had weak convection west of a completely exposed LLCC.
  The MSW was dropped to 40 kts, and JTWC issued their final warning on
  TC-02A at 15/0600 UTC.  The center of the weakening cyclone was located
  approximately 280 nm east of Somalia, moving westward at 6 kts.  The
  final warning intensity was 30 kts, and the system was forecast to
  continue weakening and dissipate completely by the time it reached the
  Somalian coast in about 36 hours.

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from this Arabian
  Sea tropical cyclone.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for November:  1 tropical cyclone (hurricane)


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
  the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
  Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
  for the basin.    However, tropical cyclones in this region are named 
  by the sub-regional warning centres on Mauritius and Madagascar with
  longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their respective
  areas of warning responsibility.  The La Reunion centre only advises
  these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.  References
  to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise
  stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
  40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
  1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
  tracks file.    Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.



                         TROPICAL CYCLONE BENI
                           (MFR-02 / TC-02S)
                            9 - 22 November
               -----------------------------------------

  Beni: contributed by Zimbabwe

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     What would become the Southwest Indian Ocean's first tropical cyclone
  (hurricane) of the season, and also the Southern Hemisphere's first
  intense tropical cyclone of the 2003-2004 season, can be traced to an
  area of convection which formed approximately 430 nm east-northeast of 
  Diego Garcia on 7 November.   Satellite imagery revealed an area of
  broad surface troughing with disorganized and cycling deep convection
  in the region.  A 200-mb analysis revealed moderate diffluence aloft with
  decreasing vertical shear.  JTWC upgraded the development potential to
  fair at 1300 UTC on the 8th as convection had continued to increase in
  organization.  A TCFA was issued at 08/2200 UTC, the center then being
  located approximately 425 nm east-northeast of Diego Garcia.  Deep
  convection had increased and appeared to be consolidating into a possible
  CDO over the LLCC, outflow was good, and vertical shear was weak.  The
  maximum surface winds were estimated at 25-30 kts.

     The first JTWC warning on Tropical Cyclone 02S was issued at 0600 UTC
  on 9 November.  (MFR had not yet initiated bulletins on the system.)  The
  MSW was estimated at 30 kts, and the center of TC-02S was placed about
  380 nm east-northeast of Diego Garcia, moving southward at 5 kts.  A
  low-level ridge to the southeast appeared to be the primary steering
  mechanism.  TC-02S slowly became better organized on 10 November:  spiral
  banding became more pronounced and began to wrap into the LLCC.  MFR
  initiated bulletins on Tropical Disturbance 02 at 0600 UTC, and upgraded
  the system to tropical depression status (30 kts) at 1800 UTC.  (At
  10/0600 UTC JTWC had upped the 1-min avg MSW to 35 kts.)  By 1800 UTC
  the system was located approximately 170 nm east of Diego Garcia, moving
  westward at 5 kts.   The depression continued to intensify and by 0600
  UTC on 11 November had become Tropical Storm Beni.  Satellite CI esti-
  mates at the time were ranging from 35 to 55 kts.


  B. Storm History
  ----------------

     At 11/1800 UTC Beni was centered about 110 nm east-southeast of Diego
  Garcia with the MSW having increased to 40 kts (45 kts per JTWC).  The
  storm was moving southwestward at 5 kts, thereby lessening the threat
  to Diego Garcia.   The mid-level ridge to the east which had been the
  primary steering mechanism for Beni was weakening, and the storm had
  gotten caught in a weak steering environment between that ridge and
  one to the west.   The storm's heading gradually bent more to the south,
  and by 12/1800 UTC Beni was moving south-southeastward at 4 kts.   Both
  MFR and JTWC were forecasting modest intensification to minimal cyclone
  (hurricane) intensity, following by gradual weakening as the system
  moved into a higher vertical shear environment.  However, a big surprise 
  was in store!  A major shortwave trough passing to the south of the 
  tropical storm greatly enhanced the poleward outflow, and Beni responded 
  by intensifying rapidly.   JTWC upped the intensity to 70 kts at 1800 
  UTC, based on CI estimates of 65 and 77 kts.  MFR's 1800 UTC intensity 
  was still 55 kts, but six hours later that agency had bumped the MSW to 
  75 kts (10-min avg).

     Tropical Cyclone Beni reached its peak intensity of 100 kts (105 kts
  1-min avg from JTWC) at 0600 UTC on 13 November.  The cyclone was then
  located approximately 250 nm southeast of Diego Garcia, moving south-
  southeastward at 4 kts.   The minimum CP estimated by MFR was 935 mb.
  Satellite CI estimates were only 77 and 90 kts, but a 13/1041 UTC SSM/I
  pass and animated enhanced imagery depicted a 15-nm eye and increased
  symmetry to the system.   Beni's tenure as an intense tropical cyclone
  was short-lived, however.  By 13/1800 UTC the strong upper-level flow
  which on the previous day had provided excellent outflow was now creating
  an unfavorable vertical shear environment.  A 13/1444 UTC SSM/I pass
  showed that convection had significantly decreased over the previous six
  hours and that the LLCC was almost fully-exposed.  MFR reduced the MSW
  to 85 kts at 1800 UTC and to 60 kts at 14/0000 UTC.  (JTWC still reported
  the intensity at 100 kts in the 1800 UTC warning, but had reduced it to
  50 kts by 14/0600 UTC.)   Tropical Storm Beni continued to track slowly
  southeastward on the 14th as westerly shear remained fairly strong.
  Some deep convection rebuilt near the LLCC, but the storm gradually
  weakened.   By 1800 UTC MFR had lowered the MSW to 35 kts with the system
  located about 500 nm southeast of Diego Garcia.

  (Note: I discovered an e-mail from Karl Hoarau after writing the above
  paragraph.  MFR based their peak 100-kt intensity (10-min avg) on a Data
  T-number of 6.0 instead of the T4.5 and T5.0 reported by JTWC in their
  13/0600 UTC warning.  Karl had performed a Dvorak analysis of Beni and
  concurred with MFR's analysis.  In fact, in his opinion Data T-numbers
  of 6.5 were likely from 0300 to 0500 UTC, so the best value for the
  peak 1-min avg MSW for Beni is 115 kts.)

     MFR downgraded Beni to a tropical depression at 15/0600 UTC, and six
  hour later the system was further downgraded to a tropical disturbance
  and the final warning (for the time being) issued.  The concurrent JTWC
  warning noted that CI estimates were ranging from 30 to 45 kts.  JTWC
  issued their "final" warning on Beni at 15/1800 UTC, placing the center
  about 480 nm southeast of Diego Garcia.  Vertical shear had increased
  and the convection had decoupled from the LLCC, which was now being
  steered southwestward by the low-level flow.  For the next couple of
  days the residual circulation remained quasi-stationary, or perhaps
  drifted very slowly to the west or west-northwest.  By the 17th the
  system was showing signs of life once more, and MFR re-initiated
  bulletins at 1200 UTC.   JTWC following with a warning at 1800 UTC.
  The center was located around 340 nm southeast of Diego Garcia and
  tracking west-northwestward at 5 kts.  Deep convection had become more
  persistent and was once more co-located with the LLCC, which had
  improved in organization as well.  The system was forecast to intensify
  only slightly before commencing weakening again.  But once again, Beni
  had a surprise in store.

     At 0600 UTC on 18 November MFR upgraded Beni once again to tropical
  storm status with 40-kt winds.  (JTWC also significantly upped the 1-min
  avg MSW estimate from 30 to 55 kts.)  Beni was then located approximately
  240 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, moving west-northwestward at
  10 kts.   An upper-level anticyclone over the storm was providing
  excellent outflow and convection had rapidly developed over the LLCC.
  There were also hints of an eye in infrared imagery.  MFR increased the
  intensity to 60 kts at 1800 UTC, and Beni became a tropical cyclone
  (hurricane) once more at 19/1200 UTC with the MSW estimated at 70 kts.
  A low-level subtropical ridge building from the west was expected to
  keep Beni moving in a generally westerly direction.   At 0600 UTC on
  the 19th Beni was located 285 nm south of Diego Garcia, and satellite
  imagery indicated that the system had a small 12-nm eye.  (JTWC upped
  the 1-min avg MSW to 65 kts at this point.)   At 1800 UTC CI estimates
  ranged from 65 to 90 kts, but animated enhanced infrared imagery
  indicated that the eye had fallen apart.

     By 20/0600 UTC convection associated with Beni was beginning to
  decrease.  MFR downgraded the cyclone to severe tropical storm status
  with 60-kt winds (10-min avg).   Twelve hours later Beni was located
  approximately 400 nm south-southwest of Diego Garcia, moving west at
  11 kts.  The system had weakened very rapidly; CI estimates were down
  to 30 and 35 kts.  MFR dropped the intensity to 40 kts, and downgraded
  the system to tropical depression status at 0000 UTC on 21 November.
  (JTWC had issued their final warning at 20/1800 UTC.)  MFR tracked the
  depression westward for another couple of days, issuing the final
  bulletin at 22/1200 UTC with the center located approximately 185 nm
  southeast of Agalega or about 235 nm north-northwest of St. Brandon.

     On 21 November satellite imagery indicated that Beni underwent a
  rapid strengthening for a third time, although this was not reflected
  in any bulletins from the TCWCs.  Several persons in some e-mail
  discussion groups commented on this, so I asked Dr. Karl Hoarau to
  take a look at imagery of Beni on the date in question.  Karl's opinion
  was that Beni did regain tropical storm intensity on the 21st, possibly
  reaching an intensity of 45-50 kts (1-min avg) at 0600 UTC.   After
  21/0200 UTC enhanced infrared pictures indicated a dramatic intensi-
  fication.  Convection with cloud tops of -70 to -75 C built over the
  LLCC, and from 0330 to 0530 UTC the LLCC was embedded more than a third
  of a degree under a CDO 2.5 degrees in diameter.  Data T-numbers were
  at 3.5.  Following this brief burst of life, shear increased once more
  over the system and by 1200 UTC the LLCC was completely exposed one
  degree northwest of the convection.   Convection fluctuated over the
  next 24 hours but the system did not regain tropical storm intensity
  again.  (A special thanks to Karl for performing this analysis of Beni.)


  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Cyclone Beni.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

                               EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  *************************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
  Chris Landsea):

    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
    http://mpittweather.com>
    ftp:// ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>


     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>


                    TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical 
  Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2002 (2001-2002 season for the Southern 
  Hemisphere).  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.  The report
  for the 2002-2003 Southern Hemisphere season has also recently been
  added.

     The URL is:  http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2003 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2003 Atlantic
  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
  track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

     The URL is:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>


     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  PREPARED BY

  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  Kevin Boyle  (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
                China Sea)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Huang Chunliang (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South
                   China Sea)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Simon Clarke  (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  [email protected]********
  *************************************************************************

Document: summ0311.htm
Updated: 26th October 2006

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