[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks October 2002
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks October 2002 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - OCTOBER 2002
!!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!!
*************************************************************************
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates, central pressure and 1-minute average
maximum sustained wind values were obtained from the operational
forecast/advisories issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National
Hurricane Center located in Miami, Florida. A 1-minute averaging
period is the standard used by all U. S. civilian and military
warning services for tropical cyclone warnings.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Depression (14) 14 - 18 Oct
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 14 Basin: ATL
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 OCT 14 1200 17.3 N 82.9 W 1009 25
02 OCT 14 1800 17.2 N 83.1 W 1008 30
02 OCT 15 0000 17.1 N 83.2 W 1004 30
02 OCT 15 0600 17.6 N 83.1 W 1004 30
02 OCT 15 1200 17.8 N 82.8 W 1004 30
02 OCT 15 1800 18.6 N 82.4 W 1002 30
02 OCT 16 0000 19.7 N 82.2 W 1003 30
02 OCT 16 0600 20.5 N 81.6 W 1003 30
02 OCT 16 1200 21.8 N 80.7 W 1005 30
02 OCT 16 1800 22.2 N 80.5 W 1006 25
02 OCT 17 0000 24.0 N 79.0 W 1006 25 Extratropical
02 OCT 17 0600 24.0 N 79.0 W 1008 25
02 OCT 17 1200 24.0 N 77.0 W 1008 25
02 OCT 17 1800 26.0 N 77.0 W 1009 25
02 OCT 18 0000 27.0 N 75.0 W 1009 20
02 OCT 18 0600 28.0 N 74.0 W 1010 20
02 OCT 18 1200 28.0 N 72.0 W 1012 20
Note: It should be noted that the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) began
issuing advisories on TD-14 in the event the system deepened into a
strong extratropical cyclone and rapidly accelerated toward the Maritime
Provinces. The CHC was still classifying the system as a tropical
depression as late as 17/0600 UTC.
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates, central pressure and 1-minute average
maximum sustained wind values were obtained from the operational
forecast/advisories issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National
Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, for locations east of longitude
140W, and from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu,
Hawaii, for locations west of longitude 140W. A 1-minute averaging
period is the standard used by all U. S. civilian and military
warning services for tropical cyclone warnings.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Hurricane KENNA (14E) 22 - 26 Oct
Tropical Storm LOWELL (15E) 22 - 31 Oct
Hurricane/Typhoon HUKO (03C / 0224) 24 Oct - 07 Nov
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: KENNA Cyclone Number: 14E Basin: NEP
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 OCT 22 0000 11.5 N 99.5 W 1006 30
02 OCT 22 0600 11.5 N 100.4 W 1004 35
02 OCT 22 1200 11.7 N 101.4 W 1003 35
02 OCT 22 1800 12.1 N 102.5 W 1003 35
02 OCT 23 0000 12.5 N 103.6 W 1002 40
02 OCT 23 0600 13.0 N 104.5 W 997 50
02 OCT 23 1200 13.6 N 105.6 W 990 65
02 OCT 23 1800 14.3 N 106.9 W 980 75
02 OCT 24 0000 14.9 N 108.0 W 973 85
02 OCT 24 0600 15.5 N 108.4 W 962 100
02 OCT 24 1200 16.4 N 108.8 W 955 110
02 OCT 24 1800 17.3 N 108.8 W 921 130
02 OCT 25 0000 18.3 N 108.4 W 915 140
02 OCT 25 0600 19.3 N 107.5 W 915 145
02 OCT 25 1200 20.4 N 106.5 W 915 140
02 OCT 25 1800 22.0 N 105.2 W 955 100 Inland in Mexico
02 OCT 26 0000 23.7 N 103.5 W 1000 35
02 OCT 26 0300 24.5 N 102.7 W 1000 30
Note: Hurricane Kenna made landfall near San Blas, Mexico, around
1700 UTC on 25 October with the MSW estimated at 120 kts, making
it the strongest hurricane to strike the west coast of Mexico
since Hurricane Madeline in 1976. The 915-mb central pressure ties
with the same value measured in Hurricane Ava in 1973 for the lowest
SLP actually measured in an Eastern Pacific hurricane. The drop-
sonde in question measured 918 mb, but the surface wind was 27 kts,
suggesting that the dropsonde was not in the center of the eye. The
actual minimum central pressure was adjusted to 915 mb based on that
assumption.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: LOWELL Cyclone Number: 15E Basin: NEP
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 OCT 22 1800 11.0 N 130.5 W 1008 30
02 OCT 23 0000 11.8 N 130.5 W 1006 30
02 OCT 23 0600 11.8 N 130.5 W 1004 35
02 OCT 23 1200 12.7 N 131.0 W 1003 40
02 OCT 23 1800 12.3 N 131.5 W 1003 40
02 OCT 24 0000 12.4 N 132.4 W 1003 40
02 OCT 24 0600 12.6 N 133.2 W 1003 40
02 OCT 24 1200 12.3 N 134.5 W 1005 35
02 OCT 24 1800 12.3 N 135.8 W 1008 30
02 OCT 25 0000 12.5 N 136.8 W 1008 30
02 OCT 25 0600 12.5 N 137.8 W 1008 30
02 OCT 25 1200 12.5 N 138.8 W 1008 30
02 OCT 25 1800 12.5 N 139.9 W 1008 30
02 OCT 26 0000 12.7 N 140.5 W 1009 30 CPHC's Warnings
02 OCT 26 0600 12.8 N 141.2 W 1009 30
02 OCT 26 1200 13.0 N 142.0 W 1009 30
02 OCT 26 1800 12.5 N 143.0 W 1009 30
02 OCT 27 0000 12.3 N 143.7 W 1009 30
02 OCT 27 0600 12.3 N 144.5 W 1009 30
02 OCT 27 1200 12.1 N 144.0 W 1007 30
02 OCT 27 1800 12.8 N 144.1 W 1009 35
02 OCT 28 0000 13.1 N 144.5 W 1009 35
02 OCT 28 0600 13.2 N 144.7 W 1004 40
02 OCT 28 1200 13.3 N 144.9 W 1002 45
02 OCT 28 1800 13.2 N 145.2 W 1002 45
02 OCT 29 0000 12.7 N 145.8 W 1004 40
02 OCT 29 0600 12.6 N 146.3 W 1005 35
02 OCT 29 1200 12.5 N 146.9 W 1007 30
02 OCT 29 1800 12.0 N 147.6 W 1009 30
02 OCT 30 0000 12.1 N 148.3 W 1009 25
02 OCT 30 0600 12.1 N 148.7 W 1009 25
02 OCT 30 1200 12.0 N 149.1 W 1009 25
02 OCT 30 1800 11.5 N 149.1 W 1009 25
02 OCT 31 0000 11.2 N 149.3 W 1009 25
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: HUKO Cyclone Number: 03C Basin: NEP/NWP
(Name assigned by Central Pacific Hurricane Center) JMA Number: 0224
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 OCT 24 1800 9.7 N 154.5 W 1007 25
02 OCT 25 0000 10.0 N 154.4 W 1007 25
02 OCT 25 0600 10.2 N 154.3 W 1007 25
02 OCT 25 1200 10.4 N 154.4 W 1006 25
02 OCT 25 1800 10.4 N 154.3 W 1005 30
02 OCT 26 0000 10.8 N 154.9 W 1004 35
02 OCT 26 0600 11.4 N 155.1 W 1005 35
02 OCT 26 1200 11.6 N 156.0 W 1009 40
02 OCT 26 1800 11.5 N 156.3 W 1006 45
02 OCT 27 0000 11.5 N 157.0 W 1006 45
02 OCT 27 0600 11.5 N 157.3 W 997 50
02 OCT 27 1200 12.0 N 158.2 W 994 55
02 OCT 27 1800 12.3 N 158.7 W 994 55
02 OCT 28 0000 12.2 N 158.1 W 994 55
02 OCT 28 0600 12.9 N 158.5 W 994 55
02 OCT 28 1200 12.4 N 158.9 W 993 60
02 OCT 28 1800 12.9 N 159.3 W 987 65
02 OCT 29 0000 12.8 N 160.0 W 987 65
02 OCT 29 0600 13.0 N 160.7 W 987 65
02 OCT 29 1200 13.2 N 160.5 W 987 65
02 OCT 29 1800 13.6 N 160.2 W 987 65
02 OCT 30 0000 14.0 N 161.3 W 994 55
02 OCT 30 0600 14.0 N 162.6 W 996 55
02 OCT 30 1200 13.8 N 163.4 W 998 50
02 OCT 30 1800 13.7 N 164.3 W 998 50
02 OCT 31 0000 13.9 N 165.3 W 998 60
02 OCT 31 0600 13.8 N 166.2 W 987 65
02 OCT 31 1200 13.7 N 166.9 W 987 65
02 OCT 31 1800 13.7 N 168.3 W 987 65
02 NOV 01 0000 13.4 N 169.2 W 990 65
02 NOV 01 0600 13.7 N 170.3 W 987 65
02 NOV 01 1200 14.1 N 171.4 W 981 75
02 NOV 01 1800 14.6 N 172.0 W 980 75
02 NOV 02 0000 14.7 N 172.6 W 981 75
02 NOV 02 0600 14.7 N 173.5 W 980 75
02 NOV 02 1200 14.7 N 174.3 W 980 75
02 NOV 02 1800 15.0 N 174.8 W 981 75
02 NOV 03 0000 15.4 N 176.1 W 981 75
02 NOV 03 0600 15.7 N 179.1 W 981 75 Final CPHC Warning
02 NOV 03 1200 15.9 N 179.8 E 975 75 65 JTWC Warnings
02 NOV 03 1800 16.0 N 177.8 E 970 75 65
02 NOV 04 0000 16.7 N 174.9 E 970 70 65
02 NOV 04 0600 17.5 N 172.3 E 970 70 65
02 NOV 04 1200 18.4 N 170.4 E 965 70 70 NMCC: 19.2 N, 169.5 E
02 NOV 04 1800 19.8 N 167.3 E 970 75 65 JMA: 18.7 N, 168.4 E
02 NOV 05 0000 20.7 N 165.1 E 975 70 60
02 NOV 05 0600 21.7 N 163.9 E 975 75 60
02 NOV 05 1200 23.1 N 163.1 E 980 70 55
02 NOV 05 1800 24.3 N 162.7 E 980 65 55
02 NOV 06 0000 25.3 N 162.8 E 980 65 55
02 NOV 06 0600 25.9 N 164.2 E 985 60 50
02 NOV 06 1200 26.8 N 166.2 E 990 55 45 NMCC: 27.6 N, 166.9 E
02 NOV 06 1800 27.1 N 168.9 E 990 55 45
02 NOV 07 0000 27.6 N 171.7 E 996 45 40 JMA: 28.0 N, 173.0 E
02 NOV 07 0600 28.5 N 174.2 E 1000 35 35 Extratropical
02 NOV 07 1200 30.0 N 179.0 E 1006 40 JMA Bulletin
Note: The original JTWC coordinates for 04/1800 UTC were 19.4N, 168.0E.
An amended warning was later issued, revising the synoptic hour position
to the coordinates given above. This relocation was based upon synoptic
observations from Wake Island, and brought the 1800 UTC position fairly
close to NMCC's coordinates of 20.0N, 167.6E. NMCC's estimated 10-min
avg MSW values are given below.
Date Time Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts
(GMT) NMCC
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 NOV 03 1200 65
02 NOV 03 1800 70
02 NOV 04 0000 70
02 NOV 04 0600 70
02 NOV 04 1200 70
02 NOV 04 1800 65
02 NOV 05 0000 65
02 NOV 05 0600 65
02 NOV 05 1200 65
02 NOV 05 1800 60
02 NOV 06 0000 60
02 NOV 06 0600 50
02 NOV 06 1200 50
02 NOV 06 1800 45
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained
from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which
is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
ological Centre for the basin. In a few instances, information from
warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized.
The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com-
pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column
when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings
issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines'
Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends me
each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the National
Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather Bureau
of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). A very
special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
reliably provide.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Typhoon BAVI (26W / 0222) 08 - 17 Oct
Tropical Depression 12 Oct
Tropical Depression (27W) 15 - 19 Oct
Tropical Depression (28W) 17 - 19 Oct
Tropical Storm MAYSAK (29W / 0223) 26 - 30 Oct
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: BAVI Cyclone Number: 26W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0222
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 OCT 08 1200 10.0 N 156.0 E 998 25 JMA Bulletins
02 OCT 08 1800 11.6 N 154.7 E 996 30 "
02 OCT 09 0000 11.9 N 154.6 E 996 30 "
02 OCT 09 0600 12.3 N 152.9 E 994 25 30 JMA: 12.9 N, 154.1 E
02 OCT 09 1200 12.9 N 151.3 E 992 25 40 JMA: 13.2 N, 152.3 E
02 OCT 09 1800 13.3 N 150.2 E 990 30 40 JMA: 13.6 N, 151.3 E
02 OCT 10 0000 14.2 N 150.0 E 990 30 40 JMA: 13.9 N, 150.4 E
02 OCT 10 0600 15.2 N 150.1 E 990 35 40 JMA: 14.5 N, 150.2 E
02 OCT 10 1200 16.6 N 149.7 E 990 40 40 JMA: 16.0 N, 150.2 E
02 OCT 10 1800 18.3 N 149.1 E 985 45 50 JMA: 17.5 N, 150.6 E
02 OCT 11 0000 19.2 N 149.4 E 985 55 50
02 OCT 11 0600 19.9 N 148.9 E 985 60 50 JMA: 20.4 N, 148.8 E
02 OCT 11 1200 20.9 N 148.6 E 985 60 50 JMA: 21.7 N, 148.7 E
02 OCT 11 1800 22.2 N 148.2 E 985 60 50
02 OCT 12 0000 23.4 N 147.4 E 985 60 50
02 OCT 12 0600 24.7 N 147.1 E 985 65 45 JMA: 23.3 N, 147.0 E
02 OCT 12 1200 26.0 N 146.8 E 985 70 45
02 OCT 12 1800 27.1 N 146.6 E 985 70 45
02 OCT 13 0000 28.2 N 146.7 E 985 65 45 JMA: 27.8 N, 147.1 E
02 OCT 13 0600 29.6 N 147.6 E 985 55 50 JMA: 28.9 N, 147.5 E
02 OCT 13 1200 30.8 N 148.9 E 992 55 45 JMA: 30.8 N, 148.0 E
02 OCT 13 1800 32.2 N 150.0 E 988 45 60 JMA: 34.0 N, 149.0 E
02 OCT 14 0000 34.7 N 152.3 E 984 35 55 JMA: 38.0 N, 153.0 E
02 OCT 14 0600 37.1 N 155.7 E 980 30 55 JMA: 39.0 N, 155.0 E
02 OCT 14 1200 42.0 N 158.0 E 980 55 JMA Bulletins
02 OCT 14 1800 44.0 N 162.0 E 976 60
02 OCT 15 0000 46.0 N 163.0 E 968 65
02 OCT 15 0600 47.0 N 167.0 E 972 65
02 OCT 15 1200 47.0 N 172.0 E 972 65
02 OCT 15 1800 47.0 N 175.0 E 972 65
02 OCT 16 0000 47.0 N 178.0 E 970 65
02 OCT 16 0600 46.0 N 179.0 W 972 65
02 OCT 16 1200 46.0 N 176.0 W 972 65
02 OCT 16 1800 46.0 N 173.0 W 977 50 MPC Bulletins
02 OCT 17 0600 46.0 N 171.0 W 976 45 17/0000Z data missing
Note: JMA considered Bavi to be extratropical at 13/1800 UTC. The
information for the extratropical stage from 14/1200 through 16/1200
UTC was taken from JMA's High Seas Forecasts. The data for the final
two entries was taken from MPC's High Seas Forecasts for the Eastern
Pacific. The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC are tabulated below.
Since the center position coordinates from JTWC and JMA were so
discordant for this cyclone, I have included NMCC's coordinates for
the tropical storm stage of Bavi below.
Date Time ---NMCC Information---
(GMT) Lat Lon MSW
(kts)
---------------------------------------
02 OCT 09 1200 13.1 N 152.3 E 35
02 OCT 09 1800 13.4 N 150.8 E 40
02 OCT 10 0000 14.1 N 150.4 E 45
02 OCT 10 0600 14.7 N 150.4 E 45
02 OCT 10 1200 15.7 N 150.4 E 45
02 OCT 10 1800 17.5 N 150.2 E 50
02 OCT 11 0000 19.0 N 150.2 E 50
02 OCT 11 0600 20.1 N 149.4 E 50
02 OCT 11 1200 21.5 N 149.1 E 50
02 OCT 11 1800 22.7 N 148.2 E 50
02 OCT 12 0000 23.2 N 147.5 E 50
02 OCT 12 0600 23.5 N 147.1 E 50
02 OCT 12 1200 25.9 N 146.8 E 50
02 OCT 12 1800 27.4 N 146.7 E 50
02 OCT 13 0000 28.1 N 147.1 E 45
02 OCT 13 0600 28.9 N 147.5 E 45
02 OCT 13 1200 31.0 N 148.6 E 45
02 OCT 13 1800 33.2 N 150.2 E 45
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: None
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 OCT 12 0600 15.3 N 113.3 E 1004 30 JMA Bulletins
02 OCT 12 1200 15.8 N 113.0 E 1004 30 "
02 OCT 12 1800 15.9 N 113.0 E 1006 30 "
Note: System was abruptly downgraded to a weak 1008-mb low-pressure
area at 13/0600 UTC, and was also relocated to near 15N, 118E, where
it remained quasi-stationary for a couple of days. To the best of
my knowledge, no other warning agency considered this system a tropical
depression.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 27W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: None
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 OCT 15 1800 19.0 N 162.0 E 1008 25 JMA Bulletins
02 OCT 16 0000 18.0 N 162.0 E 1008 25
02 OCT 16 0600 18.0 N 160.0 E 1008 25
02 OCT 16 1200 19.0 N 159.0 E 1008 25 16/1800Z data missing
02 OCT 17 0000 17.5 N 157.2 E 1008 25 25
02 OCT 17 0600 17.4 N 156.5 E 1008 25 25
02 OCT 17 1200 17.2 N 155.7 E 1008 25 25
02 OCT 17 1800 17.0 N 155.0 E 1006 25 25 JMA: 18.0 N, 156.0 E
02 OCT 18 0000 16.9 N 154.3 E 1006 30 25
02 OCT 18 0600 16.5 N 153.4 E 1004 30 25
02 OCT 18 1200 16.4 N 152.4 E 1008 30 20
02 OCT 18 1800 16.1 N 152.0 E 1006 30 20
02 OCT 19 0000 16.0 N 151.0 E 1008 25 20 JMA: 16.0 N, 152.0 E
02 OCT 19 0600 16.2 N 149.6 E 25
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 28W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: None
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 OCT 17 1800 13.0 N 177.5 E 1004 30 JMA Bulletin
02 OCT 18 0000 13.6 N 175.8 E 1004 25 30 JMA: 14.1 N, 176.3 E
02 OCT 18 0600 14.5 N 175.0 E 1004 30 30 JMA: 14.8 N, 175.7 E
02 OCT 18 1200 15.3 N 175.3 E 1004 30 30 JMA: 15.0 N, 175.8 E
02 OCT 18 1800 16.0 N 176.0 E 1004 30 30 JMA: 15.0 N, 175.9 E
02 OCT 19 0000 17.1 N 176.2 E 1004 30 30 JMA: 18.0 N, 177.5 E
02 OCT 19 0600 17.6 N 176.3 E 1004 25 30 JMA: 18.0 N, 177.2 E
02 OCT 19 1200 17.0 N 174.0 E 1010 25 JMA Bulletin
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: MAYSAK Cyclone Number: 29W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0223
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 OCT 26 1200 18.0 N 163.0 E 1008 25 JMA Bulletin
02 OCT 26 1800 20.0 N 161.7 E 1008 30 25
02 OCT 27 0000 19.1 N 160.7 E 1008 30 30 JMA: 20.5 N, 161.4 E
02 OCT 27 0600 20.1 N 160.2 E 1008 30 30
02 OCT 27 1200 21.8 N 159.4 E 1008 35 30
02 OCT 27 1800 23.3 N 159.6 E 1004 45 30
02 OCT 28 0000 24.7 N 158.7 E 996 50 40
02 OCT 28 0600 25.1 N 159.0 E 992 45 45
02 OCT 28 1200 26.1 N 160.0 E 992 45 45
02 OCT 28 1800 27.6 N 161.4 E 985 55 50
02 OCT 29 0000 29.1 N 163.5 E 985 50 55
02 OCT 29 0600 30.1 N 166.2 E 980 50 55
02 OCT 29 1200 31.6 N 169.5 E 985 50 55 Extratropical per JTWC
02 OCT 29 1800 31.6 N 173.3 E 990 50 JMA Bulletins
02 OCT 30 0000 33.4 N 177.9 E 994 40
02 OCT 30 0600 35.0 N 179.0 W 996 40 Extratropical per JMA
Note: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC are given in the table
below.
Date Time Estimates 10-min avg MSW in kts
(GMT) NMCC
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 OCT 28 0000 35
02 OCT 28 0600 40
02 OCT 28 1200 40
02 OCT 28 1800 45
02 OCT 29 0000 45
02 OCT 29 0600 45
02 OCT 29 1200 45
02 OCT 29 1800 40
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may
have been gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other
bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which
is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
ological Centre for the basin.
The reported maximum sustained winds are based on a 1-minute
averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic
observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Depression 22 - 25 Oct
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: NIO
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 OCT 22 2030 13.8 N 82.0 E 1003 30 TCFA from JTWC
02 OCT 23 0300 14.0 N 81.5 E 25 IMD Bulletin
02 OCT 23 1200 14.5 N 82.5 E 25 Bangladesh Bulletin
02 OCT 23 1800 15.6 N 82.0 E 25 "
02 OCT 23 2030 13.4 N 81.6 E 1004 25 TCFA #2 from JTWC
02 OCT 24 1800 13.0 N 81.5 E 1004 25 STWO from JTWC
02 OCT 24 2030 13.4 N 82.2 E 30 TCFA #3 from JTWC
02 OCT 25 1930 14.7 N 80.7 E 1006 20 TCFA cancelled
Note: The track for this depression is very sketchy and jumpy, being
based on several different sources and for an ill-defined system with
possible multiple LLCCs.
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji, and
Wellington, New Zealand. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor,
Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with
those from the Southern Hemisphere centres and annotations made in the
Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm
or more.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Depression (01F) 21 - 22 Oct
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: SPA
Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 01F
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 OCT 21 0900 14.0 S 167.0 E 1003
02 OCT 21 2100 18.0 S 169.0 E 1004
02 OCT 22 0600 19.0 S 170.0 E 1003
02 OCT 22 1800 21.0 S 176.0 E 1002
Note: No MSW values were indicated in the Tropical Disturbance Summaries
from Fiji. The system was given only a very low potential for tropical
cyclone development, so peak winds likely did not exceed 25 kts.
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
!!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!!
It has been brought to my attention that I should repeat in the
cyclone tracks file the caveat which is included in the Author's
Note at the end of the cyclone summaries. The tropical cyclone
tracks which I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/
advisories/advices/bulletins from the various tropical cyclone
warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should
be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during
post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and
analysts at the several warning centers.
For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical
cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of
the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their
Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best
tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the
North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere:
http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
In the near future I shall contact the other tropical warning
centers to see if I can locate any links to sites where their "best
tracks" might be archived.
PREPARED BY:
Gary Padgett [email protected]
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY:
Michael V. Padua [email protected]
[email protected]
Huang Chunliang [email protected]
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
|
Document: trak0210.htm
Updated: 27th December 2006 |
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