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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary July 2000
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                  MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                                JULY, 2000

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  ***********************************************************************
                  
                            JULY HIGHLIGHTS

  --> North Pacific quite active
  --> Twin typhoons affect several East Asian nations
  --> Rare Central North Pacific storm forms
  --> Hawaii affected by dying Eastern Pacific hurricane

  ***********************************************************************

                  ***** Topic of the Month for July *****

             SEASONAL STATISTICS FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC

     The material presented below was compiled by John Wallace, a student
  at the University of Texas in San Antonio.  John became very interested
  in tropical cyclones during the exceptionally active 1995 Atlantic
  hurricane season, and as he puts it, "started me on a crash course in
  tropical meteorology readings"--much the same experience I had had
  30 years earlier, although it only took the very average 1963 season to
  get me started.   John relates that after coming across the annual
  seasonal summary articles in _Weatherwise_, he was surprised to learn
  that the Northeast Pacific basin usually saw much more tropical cyclone
  activity than the Atlantic; yet, only rarely did one find articles
  written about tropical cyclones in this basin.

     At about the same time, John became familiar with the seasonal
  forecasts of Dr. Gray and the CSU team and decided that the Net
  Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity index was an ingenuous way to measure
  the overall "punch" (or lack thereof) of a season's activity.  So John
  gained access to the Best Track database for the Northeast Pacific
  and tabulated some statistics for this basin and calculated the NTC
  and Maximum Potential Destruction (MPD) according to Dr. Gray's
  formulae.   The remainder of this article is as I received it from
  John with some minimal editing by myself.
  
  -----------------------------------------------------------------------

     The first version of this table, with commentary, was completed in
  mid-1999. In it I used a 1975-1997 baseline and used "Named Tropical
  Cyclone Days" instead of Gray's canonical Named Storm Days--similar,
  except that the depression stage was included.   As I didn't know the
  formula, I didn't calculate Maximum Potential Destruction (MPD).  Gary
  Padgett was the first to review it, and he commented favorably though
  he considered it unwise to include the depression stage of storms.  He
  also stated that reconnaissance data gave NEP data high reliability
  going back to 1971.  I had limited the first study to the beginning of
  the use of the Dvorak technique (1975).   Finally, he explained how to
  calculate MPD and Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP).

     Buoyed by the new info, but also disheartened by its imperfections,
  I let the project rest for awhile, and when I resumed it I got rid of 
  cyclone days and replaced it with storm days, extended the baseline
  back to 1971 and forward to 1999, and included the MPD.  Unfortunately,
  HDP was too tedious to calculate with the available tools.

     A full description of the eight parameters in the table below would
  needlessly lengthen this article.  Definitions can be found on the
  Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology site:

     http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2000/august2000/
             definitions.html>

     I will, however, simply explain the abbreviations:

  NS:   Named Storms (includes unnamed storms added in post-analysis)
  H:    Hurricanes
  IH:   Intense Hurricanes
  NSD:  Named Storm Days
  HD:   Hurricane Days
  IHD:  Intense Hurricane Days
  MPD:  Maximum Potential Destruction
  NTC:  Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (%)


                  Eastern North Pacific Seasonal Parameters

                               1971 - 1999

  YEAR    NS      H     IH      NSD      HD      IHD     MPD     NTC

  1971    18     12      6     83.75    38.50    6.00    122     111
  1972    12      8      4     80.25    33.75    4.50     82      85
  1973    12      7      3     61.75    28.50    7.25     89      78
  1974    17     11      3     62.00    22.25    2.50     94      79
  1975    16      8      4     68.25    26.75    5.50     90      85
  1976    14      8      5     58.00    22.50    9.75     95      89
  1977     8      4      0     20.50     5.25    0.00     31      23
  1978    18     13      6     97.25    48.25   14.75    128     138
  1979    10      6      4     33.75    13.75    3.25     72      56
  1980    14      7      3     48.25    22.75    2.75     71      66
  1981    15      8      1     57.00    18.00    1.00     68      58
  1982    19     11      5     93.25    37.25    7.50    115     111
  1983    21     12      8    109.50    47.50   16.00    151     150
  1984    18     12      6     95.50    44.25   14.50    133     133
  1985    22     12      8    101.75    44.50    8.50    140     134
  1986    17      9      3     62.00    28.25    6.75     89      86
  1987    18      9      4     69.25    24.75    7.75    102      92
  1988    13      6      2     54.75    21.00    3.50     76      61
  1989    17      9      4     67.25    27.25    5.75     95      88
  1990    20     16      6    120.25    58.25   20.25    157     166
  1991    14     10      5     86.25    44.00   14.00    102     119
  1992    24     14      8    135.00    57.00   18.25    172     172
  1993    14     10      8     79.25    45.50   15.25    137     130
  1994    17      9      5     89.25    35.75   18.00    135     123
  1995    10      7      3     51.75    22.25    9.00     75      74
  1996     9      5      2     32.00    13.00    3.25     54      46
  1997    17      9      7     72.50    33.50   15.00    138     120
  1998    13      9      6     62.75    33.00   10.75     98     102
  1999     9      6      2     46.50    23.50    6.00     57      61

  Avg.   15.6    9.3    4.6    73.3     32.0     9.0     104     100


     The NTC was calculated using the 1971-1999 averages of NS, H, IH,
  NSD, HD, IHD.  The rounded averages of 16 NS, 9 H, 5 IH, 73 NSD, 32 HD,
  and 9 IHD were used for the calculations; the difference between the 
  rounded and decimal answers was found to be negligible.  These figures
  only include storms that formed (or were classified as such) east of
  140W, and for the entire lifetime of the storm--storms of Central North
  Pacific origin are not included.    For all the parameters, the average
  NEP season has an NTC roughly 170% of the 1950-1990 Atlantic value.  An
  interesting coincidence that I noticed is that there are several years
  in which the MPD and NTC match, or nearly so:  1972, 1983, 1984, 1986,
  and 1992 are some examples.

  -----------------------------------------------------------------------

     As John notes above, he included only storms forming in the Eastern
  North Pacific proper (i.e., east of 140W), but in the NSD, HD, and IHD
  parameters included the entire lifetime of each storm, regardless of
  whether it was east or west of 140W (or 180 for that matter).  I
  calculated two alternate sets of statistics for the basin:

  (1) including only storms forming east of 140W and including only the
      portion of tracks east of 140W for the various days parameters
  (2) including all storms forming east of 180 and including only the
      portion of tracks east of 180 for the various days parameters

  I found that my NTC1 values were just about all within 10% of John's
  except for 1992 and 1994 with the latter year showing the greatest
  divergence.  This was due to the large number of ENP cyclones forming
  farther west than normal and moving into the CNP, most notably Category
  5 hurricanes Emilia, Gilma, and John.   But my NTC2 parameter matched
  John's almost exactly for 1994.   My NTC2 parameter was most different
  from John's NTC in 1992, no doubt due to my inclusion of the intense
  CNP hurricanes Ekeka and Iniki.   The only other year in which my NTC2
  showed a difference of more than around 10% was 1988; due most likely
  to John's omission of CNP Hurricane Uleki.

  ***********************************************************************
  
                           ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for July:  No tropical cyclones


                        Atlantic Activity for July
                        --------------------------

     No warnings were issued on any tropical systems in the Atlantic
  basin during July.   A fairly vigorous disturbance noted over Africa
  on 7 Jul had moved off the coast by 0000 UTC on 9 Jul and displayed
  a quite well-organized cloud pattern somewhat similar to the monsoon
  depressions of the Western Pacific.   However, this system did not
  develop any further.  (Thanks to Mark Lander for supplying some
  satellite imagery of this disturbance.)   For a two-week or so period
  around mid-month strong upper-level westerlies spread over much of
  the tropical cyclogenetical region of the Atlantic--likely related to
  circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere--and no tropical
  wave had much of a chance to develop.   By late in the month the shear
  had relaxed and a tropical wave crossing the Atlantic from around the
  27th through the 30th displayed a fairly tight swirl of low and middle
  clouds but could not generate enough sustained central convection to
  allow further development.

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for July:  2 tropical depressions
                      2 tropical storms **
                      1 hurricane

  ** - One of these storms weakened in the Central Pacific but later
       redeveloped into a tropical storm in the Northwest Pacific basin

  NOTE:  Much of the information presented below was obtained from the
  TPC/NHC discussion bulletins issued with every regular advisory (CPHC
  for locations west of 140W.)  All references to sustained winds imply
  a 1-min averaging period unless otherwise noted.

     A special thanks to John Wallace for writing up most of the report
  on Tropical Storm Upana-Chanchu.  I added an introductory paragraph
  and wrote the portion covering the redevelopment of the system as
  Chanchu in the Northwest Pacific basin.


                    Northeast Pacific Activity for July
                    -----------------------------------

     Tropical cyclone activity had been just about normal in the North-
  east Pacific basin during June, although Carlotta's intensity was very
  unusual for June but not unprecedented.  However, July was a little
  less active than average with only two named storms and one hurricane
  forming east of 140W in the Eastern North Pacific proper--only half of
  the normal 4 storms and 2 hurricanes.  In addition to these cyclones,
  a rare Central North Pacific tropical cyclone formed--the first named
  storm on record to form in that area during July since the era of
  satellite coverage began.

     At the end of June a westward-moving disturbance more than 1000 nm
  west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas became quite well-organized and was
  on the verge of being classified as a tropical depression on 1 Jul.
  However, the thunderstorm activity became somewhat sporadic and no
  advisories were issued at the time.  The TWO for 1000 PDT on 2 Jul also
  indicated that the system was likely to become a tropical depression
  within the next 24 hours, but once more the trend toward increased
  organization levelled off and the system subsequently weakened.

     In addition to the two named storms (Daniel and Emilia), plus Upana
  in the Central Pacific, advisories were issued by TPC/NHC for two
  tropical depressions in the Eastern Pacific.  The first of these,
  TD-04E, formed from a tropical wave that left the African coast on
  20 Jun.  The wave tracked uneventfully across the Atlantic for the
  next ten days.  Upon entering the Eastern Pacific on the 30th, a weak
  tropical LOW formed along the wave axis.  Development was apparently
  hindered by a well-defined upper-level LOW to the north.  Conditions
  slowly improved as the LOW tracked westward, and it was upgraded to
  TD-04E at 2100 UTC on 6 Jul when it was located approximately 900 nm
  southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  However, the depression soon
  entered a hostile environment and had fallen apart by around 1500 UTC
  on the 7th.   (Thanks to John Wallace for writing up some information
  on TD-04E.)

     TD-05E likely developed from a tropical wave which was identified
  on 9 Jul in the eastern Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verdes.  This
  wave had entered the Pacific by 18 Jul and a 1010-mb LOW formed on the
  wave axis on 20 Jul.   The LOW passed south of Socorro Island on the
  21st, still continuing to show increased convective organization.
  Advisories were commenced on TD-05E at 2100 UTC on 22 Jul when it was
  centered about 375 nm west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas.  However, even
  as it was upgraded the depression was beginning to move over cooler
  SSTs, and by 23/0300 UTC was already over 24 C water.  The convection
  that had been present earlier quickly vanished and the depression was
  declared dissipated at 1500 UTC on the 23rd.


           Tropical Storm Upana-Chanchu  (TC-01C/12W / TS 0007)
                              20 - 30 July
           ----------------------------------------------------

  Upana: a Hawaiian name, is the transliteration of Urban
  Chanchu: submitted by the colony of Macau, is the Macanese word for
           pearl

     The first Central North Pacific tropical cyclone to be named in
  three years was a rather insignificant system to have had so many names
  and numbers.      There seems to be pretty good evidence that the
  development just west of the Dateline on 28 Jul was a re-development of
  the former Upana, but perhaps there was sufficient enough doubt at the
  time that the responsible JTWC forecaster decided to assign a new
  number when that agency initiated warnings on the depression.     It
  should be pointed out that the official policy of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon
  Committee regarding "Dateline crossers" is that the original name
  assigned by either NHC or CPHC will continue to be applied whenever a
  cyclone moves west across the 180th meridian.  However, warnings on the
  earlier Tropical Storm Upana had been dropped for several days, and
  with a new number assigned by JTWC, it seems likely that JMA decided
  assigning a new name was the best policy to follow in this case.

     Upana was the first Central Pacific storm on record to form in the
  month of July since good satellite coverage began in 1966.    An
  unofficial contender for the title is Tropical Storm Emilia of 1982:
  the best track data indicates tropical storm intensity was reached just
  west of 140W.  However, that figure is probably due to the vagaries of
  best track data versus real-time warnings since there is often an
  adjustment.    In any case, Upana was the first official July storm
  forming in the CPHC's area of responsibility and receiving a Hawaiian
  name.  Upana was also the first Central Pacific storm to form in almost
  three years--since Paka in 1997.

     The origin of Upana can be traced to a well-defined tropical wave
  that tracked off the African coast on 28 June.  It initially had a 
  strong mid-level circulation, but this quickly dissipated, and the 
  disturbance tracked uneventfully across the Atlantic.  Even in the 
  Pacific, the wave showed no signs of organization until it reached 
  138W, whereupon it transformed into a tropical LOW on 17 July.
  The LOW's organization increased steadily, and was sufficient to
  warrant its upgrade to Tropical Depression One-C at 0300 UTC on 
  20 Jul roughly 800 nm southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  

     The depression formed under a rare set of favorable conditions; its
  low latitude kept it just south of strong westerlies to its north as
  well as south of the cooler waters that usually weaken tropical
  cyclones east of Hawaii.  The westward track was influenced by the
  strong subtropical ridge to its north which ensured it would present no
  threat to the Hawaiian Islands.  Shear was favorably low, and SSTs were
  adequate; steady intensification seemed likely.  A slightly improving
  satellite presentation warranted One-C's upgrade to Tropical Storm
  Upana at 2100 UTC on the 20th, roughly 650 nm south-southeast of Hilo.

     After its upgrade, Upana intensified only slightly over the next day
  to a 40-kt MSW with a CP of 1006 mb by 0900 UTC on the 21st.  This was
  to be Upana's peak intensity, and was maintained for only a day.  The
  storm generated strong, but ragged and ill-defined, convection, a fact
  exacerbated by its unusual westward track through the ITCZ. Upana's low
  latitude did not favor much intensification, and as the 21st wore on
  its organization steadily decreased as shear began to impinge on the
  system.  Upana dropped below storm strength at 2100 UTC on the 22nd
  about 700 nm south-southwest of Lihue.  Its dissipation seemed certain;
  the LLCC was exposed and devoid of deep convection.  Surprisingly, the
  depression underwent a minor intensity fluctuation on the 23rd as
  strong convection redeveloped over the center.  As shear was relatively
  low and Upana was entering warmer waters, re-intensification to
  tropical storm status was forecast.  This, however, did not happen.
  The LLCC remained difficult to locate and the track was adjusted
  southward early on the 24th as the circulation dissipated and
  convection collapsed.  The final advisory on Tropical Depression Upana
  was issued at 0900 UTC on 24 Jul with the center located roughly 425 nm
  south-southwest of Johnston Island.  It is worth noting that the
  depression may in fact have dissipated earlier and redeveloped
  completely--a scatterometer pass near 0500 UTC on the 23rd indicated
  an open wave with no closed circulation.

     No damage or casualties are known from Upana; it was never less than
  550 nm from Hilo.    Following the issuance of the last advisory from
  CPHC, the post-Upana disturbance was not mentioned in the STWOs from
  Honolulu except that the Outlook for 4PM Hawaiian Standard Time on
  26 Jul carried a short note that the remnants of Upana had moved
  west of the Dateline.   A STWO issued by JTWC at 26/0600 UTC mentioned
  an area of convection located about 900 nm east of Kwajalein and moving
  westward.      The next day satellite imagery depicted improving
  organization around a LLCC and a 26/2205 UTC TRMM pass revealed a
  partially-exposed LLCC with deep convection sheared just east of the
  center.     A Formation Alert was issued by JTWC at 1330 UTC on the
  27th, and warnings on TD-12W were begun at 28/0000 UTC.

     The depression was located about 500 nm east of Kwajalein or 300 nm
  east-northeast of Majuro when the first warning was issued.  The
  system initially moved slowly to the west-northwest and gradually
  became better organized.   At 1800 UTC on the 28th JTWC upgraded
  the depression to a 35-kt tropical storm located roughly 470 nm east-
  northeast of Kwajalein.  This position represented a relocation of
  about 60 nm to the north-northeast of the previous warning position.
  JMA had also decided the system met tropical storm criteria and
  assigned the name Chanchu to the tropical cyclone.  After being named
  Tropical Storm Chanchu moved primarily on a slow northward track.
  The 29/0000 UTC JTWC warning brought yet another relocation of 60 nm
  to the north-northeast of the previous position.  Satellite intensity
  estimates were 35 and 45 kts so the MSW was increased to 40 kts--the
  maximum for the storm.  (JMA's peak 10-min avg wind estimate remained
  at minimal tropical storm intensity of 35 kts.)

     Convection continued to organize around the LLCC for the next few
  hours and the 40-kt MSW was maintained through 0600 UTC.  Chanchu was
  a small tropical storm with gales covering an area only about 100 nm
  in diameter.  By 29/1200 UTC convection had weakened considerably and
  Chanchu's winds were dropped to 35 kts.   Recent scatterometer and
  SSM/I passes did not reveal a LLCC.   The final JTWC advisory was
  issued at 1800 UTC, placing the dissipating storm at a location about
  500 nm north-northeast of Majuro.    A SSM/I pass at 1824 UTC as well
  as another QuikScat pass did not show any evidence of a LLCC although
  low-level convergence was indicated.   The weakening depression was
  forecast to track northwestward and dissipate within twelve hours.


                         Hurricane Daniel  (TC-06E)
                             23 July - 5 August
                         --------------------------

     For information on the origins of Atlantic and Northeastern Pacific
  tropical cyclones, I usually rely on a file created and maintained by
  John Wallace of San Antonio, Texas.  John scans the Tropical Weather
  Discussions issued four times daily by TPC/NHC for the Atlantic and
  Eastern North Pacific and maintains a running log of all the tropical
  waves and LOWs referenced, naming the waves from phonetic alphabetical
  lists he has selected to avoid confusion.  The vast majority of such
  waves can be traced back to western Africa or at least the eastern
  tropical Atlantic, but in the case of the pre-Daniel disturbance,
  John's log first references this tropical wave on 20 Jul when it was
  already located in the Pacific south of southeastern Mexico.  So if
  this system had indeed originated on the Atlantic side of Central
  America, there apparently was not enough information to clearly piece
  together any possible earlier history of the wave.  A 1009-mb LOW had
  formed on the wave axis by 22 Jul when it was located several hundred
  miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

     The first visible imagery on 23 Jul indicated that the disturbance
  had become organized enough to be classified as a tropical depression,
  so advisories were initiated on TD-06E.  At 1200 UTC the depression was
  centered about 525 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo with 30-kt wind
  estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Infrared imagery showed cold cloud tops
  to -80 C and outflow was good everywhere except on the eastern side.
  Intensification proceeded steadily and the system was upgraded to
  Tropical Storm Daniel on the second advisory.  Six hours later the
  MSW was upped to 50 kts based on 45-kt satellite estimates from the
  three agencies and a report from ship PJPO of 26-kt winds and a SLP
  of 1004.8 mb from a point about 100 nm northwest of the center.  A
  small, persistent cold CDO was positioned right over Daniel's center.
  By 24/1200 UTC Dvorak estimates had reached 65 kts and a 0835 UTC
  TRMM image depicted an eye-like feature, so Daniel was upgraded to
  a hurricane at 1500 UTC when it was centered approximately 650 nm
  south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas.  The storm was moving to the west-
  northwest at 15 kts and appeared to be rapidly intensifying.

     By 0600 UTC on the 25th Daniel exhibited a classic appearance in
  satellite imagery with a 15-nm eye embedded in cold cloud tops.
  Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB had reached T5.5, so the MSW was
  increased to 100 kts at 0900 UTC, thereby making Daniel a Category 3
  hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale.  The hurricane was centered more
  than 700 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas and moving west-northwestward
  fairly quickly at 18 kts.  Hurricane Daniel reached its peak intensity
  of 110 kts from 25/1800 to 26/0000 UTC with an estimated attendant CP
  of 952 mb.   After peaking Daniel's eye became less distinct and the
  winds slowly decreased; however, the hurricane maintained an impressive
  inner core convective structure.  There was a burst of cold convection
  (-80 to -82 C) in the southern eyewall on the morning of 26 Jul,
  indicating that slightly cooler SSTs had not affected the intensity of
  Daniel too much at that point.

     The hurricane experienced some weakening on 27 Jul as it continued
  westward, steered by a well-established mid-level ridge to the north.
  The eye appeared to expand and the MSW was decreased to 90 kts.  By
  28/0000 UTC the storm presented the appearance of a very well-organized
  hurricane with a round CDO and a distinct eye.  T-numbers had reached
  T5.5 with objective numbers peaking at T6.0.   With the storm near
  marginal SSTs, the MSW was set at 95 kts but the 0300 UTC discussion
  noted that winds might be 100 kts.   However, six hours later, even
  with Daniel over SSTs near 25 C, the satellite signature had improved
  to the point that winds were increased again to 105 kts.    TAFB's
  estimate as well as some objective Dvorak estimates were as high as
  115 kts.  Daniel at this time was moving slightly west-northwestward
  at around 16 kts due to some weak southerly shear and a mid- to upper-
  level trough passing to the north which acted to weaken the subtropical
  ridge.   By 1800 UTC on 28 Jul the hurricane was definitely weakening
  and the MSW was decreased to 90 kts.  Daniel was located about 875 nm
  east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and was approaching 140W, so warning
  responsibility was handed to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in
  Honolulu.
 
     After entering the Central North Pacific Daniel came under increased
  shear aloft and continued to weaken.   The MSW was lowered to minimal
  hurricane intensity at 29/0600 UTC.     The discussion from CPHC at
  2100 UTC noted that some deep convection had redeveloped near the
  circulation center, and with Dvorak estimates of T3.5 and T4.0 from
  SAB and Honolulu, the hurricane intensity was maintained, even though
  the latest scatterometer data did not confirm the presence of a closed
  circulation.   During the afternoon a reconnaissance airplane flew
  into the storm and found a CP of 995 mb with estimated maximum surface
  winds of 55 kts, so Daniel was downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm
  at 0300 UTC on 30 Jul.  The storm was then located about 400 nm east
  of Hilo, moving to the west-northwest.   For the next day or so Daniel
  pretty much held its own with winds fluctuating around 50-55 kts.
  A reconnaissance flight around 1800 UTC on the 30th found winds to
  50 kts and greater at flight level northeast of the center.   The
  LLCC was beginning to separate from the deep convection and Daniel
  was beginning to move on a more westerly course that was projected to
  take the weakening storm across the central Hawaiian Islands.

     However, during the afternoon (local time) of 30 Jul, Daniel
  strengthened slightly and took a jog to the right, likely due to deep
  convection which had redeveloped to the north of the center pulling
  the storm northward and allowing a greater influence from upper-level
  winds with a southerly component.  This jog was very significant in
  that it more or less assured that Daniel's center would remain north
  of the islands.  A reconnaissance aircraft also indicated that the
  eye had reformed with deep convection covering the LLCC once more.
  The MSW estimate was upped to 55 kts in the 31/0300 UTC advisory.
  This re-intensification did not last long as Daniel began to present
  a sheared appearance.  Winds were decreased to 50 kts at 0900 UTC and
  to 45 kts six hours later.   But by 31/1800 UTC, Daniel had pulled
  another surprise and re-intensified significantly.  The LLCC had once
  more moved beneath the upper-level cirrus dense overcast and convection
  was beginning to wrap around the center.    CPHC increased the MSW
  estimate to 60 kts--just shy of hurricane force.     The storm was
  centered roughly 125 nm northeast of Hilo at this time, still moving
  basically on a west-northwesterly track.   This strong pulsation was
  apparently due to a favorable interaction with an upper-level trough
  to the west.   An eye became apparent as the convection wrapped around
  the center.  But, like the earlier intensification spurt, this one was
  also short-lived.   By early afternoon (local time) on the 31st, the
  convection was collapsing and the eye feature had closed up.

     Thereafter, Daniel slowly weakened as it moved to the west-northwest
  and passed north of the Hawaiian chain.  At 1200 UTC on 1 Aug the LLCC
  (which was exposed) was about 130 nm northeast of Honolulu while the
  nearest deep convection was about 100 nm to the north of the center.
  The MSW was down to 45 kts by this time.   A reconnaissance flight a
  few hours earlier had found a CP of 1001 mb but maximum FLW of only
  32 kts.   During succeeding days convection would occasionally break
  out along the storm's northern flank, the result of which was to pull
  the system northwestward.   Daniel gradually weakened over the next few
  days, although some convection would occasionally flare up near the
  LLCC despite its movement over cooler waters.  The storm never really
  showed any significant signs of re-intensification but the persistent
  convection did serve to prevent Daniel from weakening as rapidly as
  might be expected.

     By 1200 UTC on 3 Aug the convection within the circulation had all
  but collapsed and Daniel was downgraded to a tropical depression well
  to the northwest of Hawaii.  The depression continued moving to the
  northwest until around 04/0000 UTC when it appeared to be turning to
  the north as it "punched" through the subtropical ridge.  The steadily
  weakening depression moved generally northward along 170W but the
  system stubbornly clung to life for another day or so by generating
  a few sporadic thunderstorms mainly to the south of the center.
  Finally, by 0600 UTC on 5 Aug all deep convection had ceased within
  the LLCC and Daniel was declared dissipated about 600 nm northeast of
  Midway Island.   Except for some wobbles in the vicinity of Hawaii,
  this long-lived and far-travelled hurricane followed a remarkably
  smooth and regular track for its entire life.


                      Tropical Storm Emilia  (TC-07E)
                               26 - 30 July
                      -------------------------------

     The origins of the Eastern Pacific's fifth tropical storm of the
  season were connected with a tropical wave first identified in the
  east-central tropical Atlantic on 14 Jul.  The disturbance propagated
  westward, entering the Caribbean Sea on the 17th, and had emerged into
  the Pacific Ocean by around 22 Jul.  On that day a 1010-mb LOW was
  noted south of El Salvador.   The wave continued to move westward and
  by the early morning of 25 Jul had become somewhat more organized.
  Showers associated with the disturbance at this stage spread north-
  ward and led to some locally heavy rains over portions of southwestern
  Mexico.

     By 1200 UTC on 26 Jul the system had become organized enough that
  advisories were initiated on TD-07E.  The depression was then centered
  about 540 nm south of Cabo San Lucas.  Although deep convection had
  become less centralized over the previous six hours, the overall
  convective pattern had improved.   A 0748 UTC TRMM overpass indicated
  a mid-level circulation in the 85 GHz channel that was about 60 nm
  north of the LLCC as seen in the 37 GHz channel.  Even though satellite
  intensity estimates were below tropical storm strength at 1800 UTC,
  later visible imagery revealed that an inner convective region had
  formed with an outer band wrapped more than halfway around it.  On
  this basis the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Emilia on the
  2100 UTC advisory.

     While Emilia presented a very well-defined LLCC with a pattern
  resembling a banding-type eye, the convection was neither strong nor
  concentrated near the broad center.   There were occasional bursts of
  deep convection, and the MSW estimate reached 45 kts by 27/0600 UTC but
  remained there until 1800 UTC when there was an improvement in the
  organization of Emilia.  Dvorak intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were
  50 kts and 55 kts from TAFB and SAB, respectively, so Emilia's winds
  were upped to 55 kts--the peak for the storm's history.  The center
  was located approximately 300 nm south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas at
  this time.   The storm maintained this intensity for about twelve hours
  as it moved northwestward at 12 kts, but by 0600 UTC on the 28th had
  begun to weaken.   Most of the associated convection had dissipated,
  and even though KGWC gave Emilia a 65-kt estimate with 55 kts from
  the other agencies, the lack of convection and motion over cooler SSTs
  suggested a lower intensity so the MSW was dropped to 50 kts.  Some
  deep convection subsequently returned to the central region of Emilia,
  but northeasterly shear kept it from wrapping around the LLCC.

     Since its inception Emilia had been moving on a fairly straight
  northwesterly track, but upon reaching the 20th parallel, the weakening
  cyclone turned abruptly to the west and followed a general westerly
  course for the rest of its existence.   The effects of shear and motion
  over cooler waters caused the storm to begin weakening rapidly after
  1200 UTC on 28 Jul.   Winds were down to minimal tropical storm
  intensity by 29/0000 UTC but were held there for about 18 hours due to
  Dvorak estimates from KGWC, TAFB, and SAB of 35 kts, and also due to
  the possibility of a convective flare-up during the diurnal maximum.
  There was a flare-up near the center around 1200 UTC, but by the after-
  noon of the 29th the convection had diminished and Emilia was down-
  graded to a depression at 2100 UTC, and the final advisory was issued
  at 0300 UTC on 30 Jul, placing the dissipating center about 625 nm
  west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas.

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for July:  2 tropical depressions
                      4 tropical storms **
                      2 typhoons

  ** - One of these, Chanchu, was a redevelopment of Tropical Storm
       Upana from the Central North Pacific.  Another was a system for
       which no warnings were issued by any TCWC but was considered
       a tropical storm by Dr. Mark Lander of the University of Guam.

  NOTE: Most of the information on each cyclone's history presented in
  the narrative will be based upon JTWC's advisories, and references to
  winds should be understood as a 1-min avg MSW unless otherwise noted.
  However, in the accompanying tracking document I have made comparisons
  of coordinates with JMA (Japan) and the Philippines (PAGASA) when their
  positions differed from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.  A special
  thanks to Michael V. Padua, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, for
  sending me the PAGASA and JMA tracks.

     In the title line for each storm I plan to reference all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:    JTWC's depression number, the
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area
  of responsibility.


                    Northwest Pacific Activity for July
                    -----------------------------------

     After a quiet June in which no tropical depressions or storms
  entered warning status, the waters of the Northwest Pacific basin
  became quite active indeed during the month of July.   Five tropical
  storms, including two which reached typhoon strength, were assigned
  names by JMA.   One of these originated with a disturbance from the
  Central Pacific which had formerly been a tropical storm south of
  Hawaii.  In addition to these, another small TUTT-spawned tropical
  cyclone formed early in the month but no warnings were issued for
  this system by any TCWC.   Dr. Mark Lander of the University of Guam
  felt that this disturbance did reach minimal tropical storm intensity,
  and he has provided me with a track for the cyclone which is included
  in the accompanying tropical cyclone tracks file.  In accordance with
  a procedure I developed last summer, I have dubbed this system with
  the Greek letter "Kappa".   (I assign the next available Greek letter
  to any system which (1) appeared to have exhibited nominal tropical
  characteristics, (2) was not warned on by any TCWC, and (3) in the
  opinion of some experienced tropical meteorologist, likely reached
  minimal tropical storm intensity (1-min avg MSW of 34 kts or higher).)

     This system, plus all the officially named tropical storms, will be
  described in greater detail below.      There were also two tropical
  depressions identified during the month which did not reach tropical
  storm intensity.   The first of these, TD-07W (named Gloring by
  PAGASA), formed on 12 Jul about 225 nm east of Catanduanes Island in
  the Philippines.    PAGASA and JMA began issuing bulletins on Gloring,
  but JTWC did not initiate warnings until 0000 UTC on 13 Jul when the
  broad center of the depression was about 115 nm north-northwest of
  Catanduanes Island.       The system moved generally in a westerly
  direction, crossing central Luzon between around 14/0600 and 1800 UTC.
  After emerging into the South China Sea, Gloring turned more to the
  northwest and weakened with the final JTWC warning placing the center
  about 250 nm northwest of Manila at 15/0000 UTC.

     As Tropical Depression 07W (Gloring) was crossing Luzon, another
  area of disturbed weather formed in the South China Sea to the west
  of Luzon.  This area slowly consolidated into a tropical depression
  and JTWC initiated warnings on TD-08W at 0000 UTC on 16 Jul when the
  center was located roughly 235 nm south-southwest of Hong Kong.  The
  depression moved on a north-northwesterly track which carried it
  inland into China about 140 nm west of Hong Kong around 17/0600 UTC.
  Based upon JTWC's warnings, winds never exceeded 25 kts in this system;
  however, JMA reported the 10-min avg MSW at 30 kts.   By 1800 UTC the
  depression was dissipating inland in China north of Canton.


                         Tropical Cyclone "Kappa"
                                1 - 5 July
                         ------------------------

  NOTE:  No warnings were issued by JTWC nor JMA on this system.  All
  the information contained below (except for some geographical
  references which I calculated) was supplied to me by Dr. Mark Lander
  of the University of Guam.   A special thanks to Mark for sending me
  the information and track for this system.

     A small circulation formed in the eastern quadrant of a TUTT cell
  on 1 Jul about 325 nm northwest of Wake Island.  Over the next day or
  so the small system tracked generally northward (or a little west of
  due north) until it reached a point roughly 600 nm northwest of Wake
  Island around 1800 UTC on 2 Jul.  It then made a sharp turn to the
  east and convection began to increase around the center.  By 1800 UTC
  on 3 Jul Mark estimates the MSW to have reached 35 kts with the
  center located approximately 625 nm north-northwest of Wake Island.
  Estimated peak intensity of 40 kts occurred around 04/1200 UTC when
  visible satellite imagery showed a partially-exposed LLCC tucked
  under the southwestern side of a CDO feature.  "Kappa" continued to
  move in a general easterly direction and began to weaken rapidly
  on 5 Jul as it merged with an old frontal system.  The final position
  in Mark's track places the dissipating center about 700 nm north-
  northeast of Wake Island at 05/1200 UTC.


               Typhoon Kirogi  (TC-05W / TY 0003 / Ditang)
                                2 - 8 July
               -------------------------------------------

  Kirogi: Korean word for a type of wild goose, submitted by the
          Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea)

     After lying quiescent for over a month, the tropics of the Northwest
  Pacific basin became quite active in early July.   Two twin typhoons
  were spawned on opposite sides of the Philippines with both moving on
  northerly, roughly parallel, tracks.   Typhoon Kirogi was the stronger
  of the two and moved from its birthplace well east of the central
  Philippines to near the Japanese island of Hokkaido, brushing the
  southeastern corner of Honshu as it swept north-northeastward.  An
  area of convection developed on 30 Jun about 350 nm east of the
  Philippine island of Mindanao.  The convection persisted near a weak,
  mid-level circulation near the axis of the monsoon trough which
  extended from Mindanao eastward to Koror.  CIMSS shear charts and a
  200-mb analysis indicated a favorable environment for strengthening.

     The disturbance remained quasi-stationary in the general area for
  the next few days and slowly became better organized.  A broad LLCC
  was evident in visible imagery on 1 July.   JTWC issued a Formation
  Alert at 2300 UTC on 1 Jul as convection began to organize rapidly
  about the LLCC.   The first warning on TD-05W was issued at 02/0600
  UTC with the center located about 525 nm east of Catanduanes Island
  in the Philippines.   PAGASA initiated warnings six hours later, naming
  the depression Ditang.   The developing system began moving on a slow
  northerly track several hundred miles east of the Philippines.  JTWC
  upgraded TD-05W to a tropical storm at 02/1800 UTC and PAGASA followed
  suit six hours later.  The LLCC was still very broad but convection
  was wrapping around the southern and western periphery.  JMA upgraded
  the depression to Tropical Storm Kirogi at 0600 UTC on 3 Jul with
  maximum 10-min avg winds of 40 kts.  JTWC's 1-min MSW was 45 kts, which
  represents excellent agreement with JMA.

     Both JTWC and JMA upgraded Kirogi to a 65-kt typhoon at 03/1800 UTC
  with the storm centered roughly 450 nm east-northeast of Catanduanes
  Island.  Animated satellite imagery revealed increasing consolidation
  with tightly-curved banding features.  The storm exhibited good outflow
  in all quadrants and was continuing to be steered generally northward
  by a mid-level subtropical ridge to the east.     Located within a
  favorable large-scale environment, Kirogi quickly intensified into
  a strong typhoon.    JTWC's MSW estimate reached 100 kts at 0600 UTC
  on 4 Jul with animated visible satellite imagery depicting a large,
  rapidly intensifying system.  Kirogi sported a 29-nm irregular eye with
  a convective band evident as far as 230 nm to the north of the LLCC.
  Kirogi reached its estimated peak intensity of 115 kts six hours later
  with the center approximately 470 nm southeast of Okinawa.  A SSM/I
  pass at 04/0926 UTC depicted a 32-nm round eye with data from a TRMM
  pass indicating that the strongest banding lay to the east and south.
  Gales extended outward 165 nm to the east of the center and 115 nm
  elsewhere, while 50-kt winds reached out 85 nm to the east and 55 nm
  elsewhere.  The estimated radius of 100-kt winds was 15 nm; hence,
  Kirogi was a fairly large typhoon.  JMA's estimated peak 10-min avg
  wind was 85 kts while PAGASA reported 90 kts from 05/0000 through
  05/1800 UTC.

     The JTWC warning at 05/0000 UTC noted that convection was symmetric
  around the 26-nm cloud-filled eye.  Six hours later the MSW was still
  reported as 115 kts, but animated satellite imagery showed that the
  deep convection had weakened considerably over the past few hours.
  Apparently a mid-latitude trough to the northwest was having an adverse
  effect on Kirogi even though the outflow appeared to still be good in
  all quadrants.  A 05/0914 UTC SSM/I pass depicted virtually all of
  the convective banding to be confined to the eastern half of the
  typhoon.   By 1800 UTC the storm was continuing to show signs of
  weakening with the MSW lowered to 100 kts.   The deepest convection
  was located in the southeastern quadrant only.   Kirogi was by this
  time moving on a north-northeasterly heading from which it never
  deviated.  Winds had dropped to 85 kts by 06/0000 UTC and were down
  to 75 kts (per JTWC) by 1200 UTC, but the storm's intensity then
  levelled off and Kirogi maintained 75-kt winds for a day and a half.
  The typhoon passed about 375 nm west of Iwo Jima around 0600 UTC
  on the 6th.  This location was also approximately 350 nm east of
  Okinawa.   By 1200 UTC Kirogi was beginning to accelerate some on
  its north-northeasterly heading, and had also become quite a large
  typhoon.   Winds of 50-kts covered an area 300 nm in diameter while
  gales covered an area almost 500 nm in diameter.

     Even though Kirogi had lost much of its earlier punch, it remained
  a well-organized typhoon with a ragged, cloud-filled eye visible much
  of the time as it accelerated toward Japan.   The JTWC warning at 0600
  UTC on 7 Jul noted that animated satellite imagery revealed a 13-nm eye
  with a band of heavy convection closing in to make a concentric eye-
  wall.    By 1800 UTC Kirogi was located about 90 nm south of Tokyo
  and moving north-northeastward at 26 kts.   The MSW were estimated
  at 70 kts from both JTWC and JMA with a synoptic pressure report of
  973 mb.   A 200-mb analysis indicated that a mid-latitude trough was
  situated about seven degrees west of the typhoon with southerly
  divergent flow of 10-20 kts over the system.   The weakening Kirogi
  passed near Choshi on Cape Inubo as it brushed southeastern Honshu.
  By 08/0000 UTC the storm was located approximately 80 nm east-
  northeast of Tokyo with 65-kt winds and was beginning to transition
  into an extratropical system, although a 07/2117 UTC SSM/I pass
  indicated a CDO with the LLCC about 30 nm into the convection.
  Thereafter, Kirogi continued to weaken as cold air advection and
  cooler SSTs caused the convection to weaken.  The storm continued
  moving north-northeastward east of Honshu and by 1800 UTC on the 8th
  had completed extratropical transition just southeast of the island
  of Hokkaido.

     While Typhoon Kirogi was gaining strength east of the Philippines,
  a monsoon depression in the South China Sea, later to become Typhoon
  Kai-tak, was slowly consolidating and was accompanied by a large
  area of gales before any warnings were issued.  Heavy rains during
  this time led to disastrous flooding and landslides in the Philippines.
  There were some press stories circulating which stated that Typhoon
  Kirogi had struck the Philippines or had caused great damage to the
  nation.   This is erroneous--the typhoon was never closer to the
  Philippines than about 450 nm and could not have had any significant
  impact in the country.

     However, Kirogi did leave behind some damage and fatalities in
  Japan.  There were three persons reported killed and some cities were
  flooded and homes buried in landslides.     At least 300 homes in
  the Tokyo metropolitan area were flooded, and downed power lines led
  to about 20,000 homes being without electricity for as long as four
  hours.  Before reaching Honshu the storm had struck the Izu island
  chain south of Tokyo where a shrine festival hall and three homes
  were demolished by landslides on the island of Kozushima.  One press
  report mentioned winds to 68 kts in Japan, but the location of this
  report isn't clear, nor was it stated if it were a sustained wind or
  peak gust.


               Typhoon Kai-tak  (TC-06W / TY 0004 / Edeng)
                                3 - 11 July
               -------------------------------------------

  Kai-tak: contributed by Hong Kong, China, is the name of the old
           airport in Hong Kong which was closed in 1998

     An area of persistent but disorganized convection developed on
  2 Jul in the central South China Sea about halfway between Luzon and
  Vietnam.   A QuikScat pass and synoptic reports indicated that a broad,
  weak circulation was associated with the convection.  The area had
  drifted northward some by 3 Jul, and a synoptic analysis and visible
  satellite imagery revealed a developing LLCC.     PAGASA initiated
  warnings on Tropical Depression Edeng at 03/0000 UTC with the center
  located approximately 425 nm south-southeast of Hong Kong.   Edeng
  moved slowly northeastward toward the northern tip of Luzon.  JTWC
  issued a Formation Alert at 03/2300 UTC with the LLCC estimated about
  150 nm northwest of Manila.      The system had exhibited improved
  organization with a band of convection wrapping into the eastern
  quadrant of the LLCC.   Edeng was located in a favorable environment
  for intensification underneath the axis of the subtropical ridge.

     JMA began issuing  bulletins on the system at 0000 UTC on 4 Jul with
  the broad center located about 100 nm south-southwest of Laoag on the
  island of Luzon.  JTWC followed suit and initiated warnings on TD-06W
  six hours later.      The center of the depression remained quasi-
  stationary over the next couple of days over or near northern Luzon,
  thereby slowing its intensification, even though convection gradually
  became better organized.  At 1200 UTC on 5 Jul PAGASA upgraded Edeng
  to a tropical storm with 35-kt winds centered about 35 nm north of
  Laoag.   Six hours later both JTWC and JMA had classified the system
  as a tropical storm with JMA assigning the name Kai-tak.   Even though
  Kai-tak had developed slowly, once it moved out over the Luzon Strait,
  the storm began to intensify rather quickly.

     By 0600 UTC on 6 Jul the convection had increased in areal coverage
  and had consolidated around the LLCC.  MSW were estimated at 60 kts
  by both JTWC and JMA, and Kai-tak was upgraded to typhoon intensity
  at 1200 UTC by JMA.   The center of Kai-tak was located approximately
  150 nm northwest of Laoag at this time.   (JTWC upgraded the storm to
  a typhoon at 1800 UTC.)   Typhoon Kai-tak remained quasi-stationary
  in the Luzon Strait just off the northern end of Luzon for several
  days.   At 1200 UTC on 8 Jul, just before the by-then weakening typhoon
  began to move decidedly to the north-northeast, the center of Kai-tak
  was located only about 90 nm north of where it been 72 hours earlier
  when it had first been upgraded to a tropical storm by PAGASA.  From
  comments in some of the JTWC warnings, it appears that Kai-tak's slow
  motion was caused by the combination of a subtropical ridge building
  in from the east of the storm and a ridge located to the north.

     The typhoon reached its estimated peak intensity of 75 kts (per both
  JTWC and JMA) from 07/0600 through 08/0000 UTC.  Interestingly, PAGASA
  reported a 10-min avg wind of 90 kts during this period which would
  correspond to a 1-min avg MSW of about 105 kts.  In the cyclone tracks
  file, I normally use the higher 10-min avg MSW value that I have
  access to, but in this case, I reported JMA's lower value since it was
  much more in line with JTWC's MSW, although it should be pointed out
  that a 75-kt 10-min avg MSW would imply a 1-min avg MSW of 85 kts.
  By 0000 UTC on the 8th satellite imagery depicted weakening convection
  around a 15-nm eye, possibly due to upwelling of cooler water as a
  result of the very slow movement of the system.   At this point JTWC
  still forecast Kai-tak to take off toward the north and intensify,
  but by 0600 UTC it was evident the typhoon had weakened considerably.
  Virtually all the convection around the exposed LLCC had dissipated
  and the MSW was decreased to 65 kts.    There was still, however, a
  fair amount of convection over the periphery of the storm.

     Kai-tak was able to maintain minimal typhoon intensity for another
  24 hours as it began to move north-northeastward toward southern
  Taiwan.   The storm scooted up the east coast of the island, being
  located about 50 nm northeast of the southern tip of Taiwan at 0000 UTC
  on 9 Jul.   At this juncture some convection had begun to wrap in
  towards the center and a banding eye was becoming evident, but this
  trend was reversed, apparently due to interaction with the mountainous
  island.    At 0600 UTC Kai-tak was downgraded to a tropical storm
  when it was located about 45 nm southeast of Taipei.  (JMA had down-
  graded the system twelve hours earlier.)   By the time the storm was
  passing Taipei it was moving northward at 18 kts, being steered by
  a combination of a mid-level HIGH to the east and a mid-latitude trough
  over southeastern China.

     After brushing Taiwan Kai-tak continued rapidly northward with a
  slight jog to the north-northwest toward eastern China with most of
  the convection over the western portion of the system.  As the storm
  neared China there was an increase in convection north of the center.
  Animated water vapor imagery showed good outflow to the north and
  south of the center and a 200-mb analysis revealed upper-level
  diffluence above Kai-tak.   At 09/1800 UTC the storm was centered about
  35 nm east-southeast of Wenchou and by 0000 UTC on the 10th was
  skirting the Chinese coast about 50 nm south-southeast of Shanghai.
  The MSW estimate was decreased to 45 kts at this time and the storm
  continued to weaken as it pulled away from the coast and sped north-
  ward into the Yellow Sea.  By 0600 UTC Kai-tak's center was located
  about 85 nm northeast of Shanghai and moving northward at 22 kts.
  Convection was beginning to weaken and the storm was downgraded to a
  depression at 1200 UTC and forecast to transition into an extratropical
  system.   The final JTWC warning at 11/0000 UTC placed the system in
  the far northern reaches of the Yellow Sea just west of the northern
  part of the Korean peninsula.

     During the time that Kai-tak was brewing as a monsoon depression in
  the South China Sea, gales existed for several days just south of the
  system.  This regime helped to bring very heavy rains to portions of
  the Philippines which led to widespread damage and many fatalities.
  Contrary to what was widely reported in the press, Typhoon Kirogi,
  several hundred miles to the east, was not responsible for the
  situation in the Philippines except that perhaps inflow into the
  typhoon helped to enhance the monsoon a bit.   In the 72 hours ending
  at 0000 UTC on 6 Jul Baguio City had recorded 570 mm, the monthly
  average being 1074 mm.  (Thanks to Patrick Hoareau for sending this
  information along.)

     The number of fatalities is not altogether clear.  One press report
  indicated that 27 lives had been lost in the flooding and landslides in
  the northern and central portions of Luzon.   Over 400,000 persons were
  driven from their homes by the flooding which left hundreds of villages
  and many towns under 1 to 2 metres of water.   Hundreds of houses were
  damaged and in many cases totally destroyed.   The water level behind
  the Ambuklao and Binga dams came to within less than 1 metre of
  reaching the spillover level.  Crops (especially rice) and fishponds in
  many areas were damaged.

     An unusual tragedy in Manila claimed over a hundred lives.  A city
  garbage dumpsite, covering about 0.1 square miles in area but with
  garbage piled up to seven stories high, was weakened by the heavy
  rainfall and collapsed onto an area of shanties, huts, and lean-tos.
  As the garbage slid over the homes, it caught fire, burning and burying
  many people alive.  Three days after the slide the number of dead was
  placed at 137 with 150 or more still believed buried.


                 Tropical Storm Tembin  (TC-09W / TS 0005)
                               17 - 23 July
                 -----------------------------------------

  Tembin: Japanese word for balance (a weighing device)

     Tropical Storm Tembin was a fairly weak tropical storm which formed
  near the northern Mariana Islands in mid-July and moved almost due
  northward, recurving just east of Honshu.   An area of convection
  developed on 16 Jul over the northern Marianas.  Animated satellite
  imagery and CIMSS products indicated that the region was under the
  divergent quadrant of a TUTT with a possible anticyclone developing
  over the convection.   Synoptic observations indicated a weak LLCC.
  JMA began issuing bulletins on a new tropical depression at 0000 UTC
  on 17 Jul with the weak center estimated to be just west of the
  northernmost Marianas.   JTWC issued a Formation Alert at 0100 UTC,
  noting that the disturbance had consolidated and was intensifying.
  JTWC held off on initiating warnings since at 0600 UTC visible imagery
  indicated that although the system was displaying increased
  organization, the convection had weakened some.  Satellite intensity
  estimates were 25 kts but synoptic observations and satellite-derived
  winds indicated that winds near the center were only around 15 kts.

     JTWC began issuing warnings at 17/1800 UTC based upon satellite
  intensity estimates of 25 kts and synoptic reports.  Convection had
  increased in areal coverage with a possible banding feature developing
  to the southeast of the LLCC.  The depression was in a diffluent region
  created by an upper-level LOW to the southwest and an upper-level HIGH
  to the northeast of the Marianas.  The center of TD-09W was estimated
  to be about 175 nm northwest of the northern Marianas or about 180 nm
  southeast of Iwo Jima.   Initial slow motion to the northwest had
  changed to a northerly heading by 0600 UTC on the 18th.   CIMSS data
  indicated that an upper-level ridge to the east was migrating westward
  over the depression.  The system was forecast to continue moving north-
  ward through a break in the low- to mid-level ridge.   JTWC upgraded
  the depression to a tropical storm at 18/1800 UTC with the center
  positioned about 85 nm northeast of Iwo Jima.   Six hours later JMA
  also classified the system as a tropical storm, naming it Tembin.

     JTWC upped the MSW to 45 kts at 19/0000 UTC based on a 10-min avg
  wind report of 41 kts from a reliable vessel in the vicinity.
  Convection was seen to fluctuate some, but by 1200 UTC animated
  satellite imagery indicated that deep convection had strengthened and
  become better organized around the LLCC.   Tembin continued to march
  basically in a northerly direction but never intensified beyond 45 kts.
  By 1800 UTC on the 19th some limited westerly shear was impinging on
  the system, keeping the LLCC on the western edge of the deep
  convection, although good outflow was present over the eastern semi-
  circle.  By 20/0600 UTC the shear had increased to the point that the
  LLCC was exposed with the deep convection sheared 18 nm to the north-
  east of the center.  (During this period JMA's maximum 10-min avg
  wind estimate reached 40 kts which agrees closely with JTWC's 1-min
  avg MSW estimate of 45 kts.)

     Tropical Storm Tembin began to slowly weaken as it moved northward
  and encountered increasing shear.  Also, animated water vapor imagery
  indicated some mid- and upper-level dry air getting pulled into the
  southwest quadrant of the storm.   Steered by a low- to mid-level HIGH
  to the east, the weakening storm continued northward, then curved to a
  north-northeasterly heading as it passed east of Tokyo.  By 0000 UTC
  on 22 Jul the LLCC had become completely exposed with associated
  convection displaced about 120 nm to the south.     A 200-mb analyis
  indicated moderate upper-level northeasterlies extending over the
  region.   JTWC downgraded Tembin to a depression at 0000 UTC with the
  weakening center located about 150 nm east of Tokyo.  JMA wrote their
  last advisory on the storm also at this time.    Synoptic ship reports
  of 27 kts and 32 kts within 60 nm of the LLCC with pressures near
  996 mb supported an intensity of 30 kts, so JTWC continued to write
  warnings on the weakening Tembin for another day or so.  A 22/1200 UTC
  ship report about 90 nm south of the LLCC indicated 27-kt winds and
  a pressure of 1001 mb.   Rapidly weakening convection was noted about
  125 nm southwest of the center.   By 23/0000 UTC there was no longer
  any convection associated with the LLCC and JTWC issued the last
  warning with the dissipating system just east of Hokkaido.


         Tropical Storm Bolaven  (TC-10W/11W / STS 0006 / Huaning)
                                20 - 31 July
         ---------------------------------------------------------

  Bolaven: contributed by Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos), is
           the name of a plateau in the southern part of Laos

     An area of convection developed on 18 Jul about 600 nm east of the
  Philippines.  Animated visible satellite imagery indicated persistent
  convection in the low-level southwesterly convergent flow of the
  monsoon trough while animated water vapor imagery showed an upper-
  level LOW located north of the area with a trough extending southwest-
  ward to the west of the disturbance.  CIMSS wind analysis showed weak
  divergence in the upper levels over the region.   By 19 Jul the main
  convective area had migrated or re-formed farther to the west--about
  250 nm east of the Philippines.  JTWC issued a Formation Alert at
  0030 UTC on 20 Jul when visible imagery revealed the existence of an
  exposed LLCC southeast of the deeper convection.   The first warning
  on TD-10W was issued at 0300 UTC.   The well-defined LLCC was fully
  exposed but the depression was forecast to move into an environment
  of decreased vertical shear during the next 24 hours that should allow
  convection to consolidate near the center.

     This forecast, however, failed to materialize.  Over the next three
  days the depression moved on a general northwesterly course, steered by
  a subtropical ridge to its northeast.   Upper-level northeasterlies
  impinging on the system constantly sheared the convection that did
  develop away from the LLCC.   PAGASA initiated warnings on the system
  at 21/0000 UTC, naming it Huaning.   Huaning's center was located
  roughly 325 nm east-northeast of Catanduanes Island at this time.
  PAGASA estimated the 10-min avg wind at 30 kts during this time but
  JTWC's 1-min avg MSW estimate never rose above 25 kts.  By 23/0000 UTC
  the depression's center had, in JTWC's estimation, moved inland over
  northeastern Luzon and warnings were terminated.    PAGASA, however,
  placed the center about 50 nm to the east-northeast of JTWC's final
  position.

     A STWO from JTWC at 23/0600 UTC mentioned that an area of convection
  had formed about 140 nm east of Luzon within the monsoon trough.  The
  convection was persistent with an apparent mid-level circulation.  A
  23/0241 UTC TRMM pass depicted poorly-organized convection with no
  clear indication of a LLCC.    Synoptic analysis indicated linear
  convergence across the region which was experiencing moderate vertical
  shear.   Another STWO issued at 2100 UTC indicated that the area of
  convection was located about 70 nm east-southeast of Port San Vicente
  on Luzon.   There had been a flare-up of convection near a quasi-
  stationary poorly-defined LLCC.   Scatterometer and ship data indicated
  a weak LLCC with a TUTT located just north of the area.  The potential
  for development was rated Fair.   By 24/0600 UTC the main convective
  area was centered about 60 nm north of Luzon and a Formation Alert was
  issued.   JTWC began writing warnings on TD-11W at 24/1800 UTC with the
  system centered approximately 300 nm south-southwest of Okinawa.

     In the meantime, during the hiatus in JTWC warnings, PAGASA
  continued to carry the system as Tropical Depression Huaning.  Their
  23/0600 UTC position relocated the center about 80 nm to the southeast
  of the previous warning position.  The center as followed by PAGASA
  remained quasi-stationary through 24/0000 UTC, then was relocated
  at 0600 UTC to a position about 100 nm to the north.  JMA also began
  issuing bulletins on the system at this point.   Since PAGASA treated
  the system as one entity, I am following their lead here.  Mark Lander
  stated that he and Roger Edson had taken a close look at satellite
  imagery of the system during this period and were in agreement that
  TD-11W (later Bolaven) was a continuation of TD-10W.  Mark indicated
  that PAGASA's track made a nice fit between the end of TD-10W and the
  point where JTWC picked up TD-11W.

     The rejuvenated depression began to track north-northeastward on
  25 Jul in the direction of Okinawa.  Intensification was slow as the
  depression was still experiencing some shear.  At 25/1200 UTC the
  convection appeared to be weakening with a QuikScat pass indicating
  a trough without a closed circulation.  However, six hours later
  convection had begun to increase again in areal coverage and JMA
  upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Bolaven, located about
  125 nm southwest of Okinawa.  JTWC classified the system as a tropical
  storm at 26/0000 UTC based on synoptic reports of 35 kts.  The winds
  were raised to 40 kts at 0600 UTC by both JTWC and JMA based on
  synoptic reports of 37 and 42 kts near the center.  (Satellite current
  intensity estimates remained 30 kts at the time.)     Convection was
  increasing in organization and areal coverage, especially over the
  southern part of the system.  Bolaven's center was located about 40 nm
  southeast of Okinawa at this time, still tracking northeastward.
  However, the northeastward motion came to a halt at 1800 UTC as a
  subtropical ridge to the east began to build westward.

     For about 24 hours the storm moved slowly and erratically generally
  toward the west.    Animated visible imagery revealed that a 90-nm
  irregular CDO had developed over the LLCC by 27/0000 UTC.    With
  satellite intensity estimates of 45 and 55 kts, JTWC increased their
  MSW estimate to 50 kts--the peak value for the storm's history.
  (Interestingly, JMA reported the maximum 10-min avg winds at 55 kts
  for the next couple of days.)  The JTWC warning at 27/1200 UTC noted
  that impressive outflow remained over the eastern portion of the storm.
  Bolaven was at this time located within a weakness in the ridge, and
  its motion was also being influenced by a TUTT located just to the east
  of the tropical cyclone.  By 28/0000 UTC the storm was drifting north-
  ward at 3 kts from a position about 100 nm east-northeast of Kadena AB,
  Okinawa.  This northward motion began to increase later on the 28th,
  and Bolaven experienced some northerly shear but managed to hang on
  to its intensity through late on the 29th.

     By 29/0600 UTC the storm was located about 225 nm south-southwest of
  Sasebo, Japan, and moving north-northwestward at 7 kts.  Animated water
  vapor imagery continued to depict good outflow except in the northern
  quadrant; however, CIMSS analysis indicated moderate vertical shear and
  northeasterly flow over the system.  Bolaven was being steered by a
  weak subtropical ridge to the northeast.   At 0000 UTC on the 30th the
  storm was centered approximately 115 nm south-southwest of Sasebo and
  tracking northward at 8 kts.   Convection was sheared 50 nm to the
  south of an exposed LLCC and JTWC brought the MSW down to 40 kts.  A
  mid-latitude trough approaching from the west was enhancing the
  steering flow, allowing the storm to accelerate northward.  Bolaven
  passed about 55 nm west of Sasebo at 0600 UTC as a minimal tropical
  storm.   At 1800 UTC the cyclone was moving north-northeastward from
  a position about 45 nm south of Pusan, South Korea.     Bolaven was
  beginning to display some extratropical characteristics, but satellite
  imagery indicated that convection had temporarily moved back over the
  LLCC due apparently to a relaxation in the vertical shear.  However,
  by 31/0000 UTC Bolaven was weakening again after having brushed the
  southwestern corner of South Korea and was downgraded to a tropical
  depression by both JTWC and JMA about 55 nm north-northeast of Pusan.
  Six hours later JTWC wrote their final warning as the convection had
  become weak and elongated and the depression was merging with a mid-
  latitude trough and accelerating northeastward in the Sea of Japan.


           Tropical Storm Upana-Chanchu  (TC-01C/12W / TS 0007)
                              20 - 30 July
           ----------------------------------------------------

     Tropical Storm Upana was a rare Central North Pacific tropical
  cyclone which blossomed briefly south and southwest of Hawaii.  The
  system weakened to below depression status and warnings were dropped
  by CPHC.   The residual disturbance continued westward and began to
  show signs of re-intensification as it neared the Dateline.  After
  crossing into the Northwest Pacific basin, the system redeveloped
  into a tropical storm and was named Chanchu by JMA.     The full
  history of this system is given above in the section of this summary
  covering the Northeast Pacific basin.

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for July:  No tropical cyclones

  ***********************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for July:  No tropical cyclones

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for July:  No tropical cyclones

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for July:  No tropical cyclones

  ***********************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for July:  No tropical cyclones

  ***********************************************************************

                              EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  ***********************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  in the following manner:

       (a) FTP to:  hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206]
       (b) Login as: anonymous
       (c) For a password use your e-mail address
       (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data)
       (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii)
       (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name )
           (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using
           July as an example:   jul00.tracks)
       (g) To exit FTP, type: quit

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries,
  they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD.  The
  summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature:  jul00.sum, for
  example.

    Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, Michael
  Pitt, and Rich Henning):

    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.com> OR http://www.geocities.com/taifun00/>
    http://www.hurricanealley.net/>
    http://www.qisfl.net/home/hurricanemike>
    http://www.met.fsu.edu/gsc/Docs/Grads/henning/cyclones/>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>


                   TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     I have discovered that JTWC now has available on its website the
  complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 1999 (1998-1999
  season for the Southern Hemisphere).  Also, ATCRs for earlier years
  are available also.

     The URL is:  http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 1999 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 1999
  Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available.

     The URL is:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>

  Prepared by: Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  garyp@alaweb.com
  Phone:  334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays)

  ***********************************************************************
  ***********************************************************************

Document: summ0007.htm
Updated: 29th December 2006

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